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2021-12-03
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'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears<blockquote>“债券市场尚未准备好”——这是一位华尔街资深人士的担忧</blockquote>
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That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p><p><blockquote>自20世纪70年代以来，几乎每个加息周期都会导致峰值不断降低。这是合乎逻辑的，因为通胀峰值也较低。</blockquote></p><p> \"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p><p><blockquote>Natixis企业和投资银行美洲首席经济学家Joe LaVorgna表示：“从本质上讲，通胀的长期下降减轻了货币政策制定者像之前商业周期那样提高官方利率的需要。”特朗普政府后期担任白宫国家经济委员会首席经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经吸取了教训。以五年期隔夜指数掉期衡量，交易员预计下一个加息周期的峰值仅为1.45%。经通胀调整后，预计实际利率在本商业周期中不会进入正值区域。</blockquote></p><p> LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>LaVorgna表示，市场可能会猛然醒悟。“但自新冠疫情以来前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施可能扭转了20世纪80年代后通胀的长期下降趋势。如果是这样的话，那么实际联邦基金利率最终需要回到正值区域，以抑制通胀压力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p><p><blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，债券市场尚未做好准备。他对MarketWatch表示，股市也不是。股票的最终结果？“最终倍数会严重压缩，”他在一封电子邮件中说。席勒市盈率的最新读数是惊人的39。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears<blockquote>“债券市场尚未准备好”——这是一位华尔街资深人士的担忧</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'The bond market is not yet prepared' -- here's what a Wall Street veteran fears<blockquote>“债券市场尚未准备好”——这是一位华尔街资深人士的担忧</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.</p><p><blockquote>随着美联储明年加息的信号越来越大，市场面临的问题不再是何时加息，而是加息幅度有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Nearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.</p><p><blockquote>自20世纪70年代以来，几乎每个加息周期都会导致峰值不断降低。这是合乎逻辑的，因为通胀峰值也较低。</blockquote></p><p> \"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.</p><p><blockquote>Natixis企业和投资银行美洲首席经济学家Joe LaVorgna表示：“从本质上讲，通胀的长期下降减轻了货币政策制定者像之前商业周期那样提高官方利率的需要。”特朗普政府后期担任白宫国家经济委员会首席经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/766e2ce17be0292d43f5fd3a83ce848a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"505\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Markets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>市场已经吸取了教训。以五年期隔夜指数掉期衡量，交易员预计下一个加息周期的峰值仅为1.45%。经通胀调整后，预计实际利率在本商业周期中不会进入正值区域。</blockquote></p><p> LaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>LaVorgna表示，市场可能会猛然醒悟。“但自新冠疫情以来前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施可能扭转了20世纪80年代后通胀的长期下降趋势。如果是这样的话，那么实际联邦基金利率最终需要回到正值区域，以抑制通胀压力，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> LaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.</p><p><blockquote>拉沃尼亚表示，债券市场尚未做好准备。他对MarketWatch表示，股市也不是。股票的最终结果？“最终倍数会严重压缩，”他在一封电子邮件中说。席勒市盈率的最新读数是惊人的39。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZG":"Zillow Class A","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4539":"次新股","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4022":"陆运",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4515":"5G概念","Z":"Zillow","BK4079":"房地产服务","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-is-not-yet-prepared-heres-what-a-wall-street-veteran-fears-11638532504?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188854525","content_text":"As the signals from the Federal Reserve become louder and louder that interest rates will be hiked next year, the question for markets becomes less about when and more about, how high.\nNearly every rate-hike cycle since the 1970s has resulted in successively lower peaks. That's logical, because inflation also has had lower peaks.\n\"In essence, a secular decline in inflation has mitigated the need for monetary policy makers to lift official interest rates as much as previous business cycles,\" said Joe LaVorgna, the chief economist of the Americas for Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, who also was chief economist for the White House National Economic Council in the latter days of the Trump administration.\n\nMarkets have learned. Measured by five-year overnight index swaps, traders expect the next rate hike cycle to peak at just 1.45%. And adjusted for inflation, real rates are forecast not to get into positive territory in this business cycle.\nLaVorgna said markets may be in store for a rude awakening. \"But unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus since COVID may have reversed the post-1980s secular downtrend in inflation. If this is the case, then the real fed-funds rate eventually needs to get back into positive territory to dampen inflationary pressure,\" he said.\nLaVorgna said the bond market isn't yet prepared. And to MarketWatch, he said neither is the stock market. The end result for equities? \"Eventually a serious compression in multiples,\" he said in an email. The last reading for the Shiller price-to-equty ratio was a staggering 39.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ICE":0.9,"ZG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MRVL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2079,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601254582"}
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