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2021-12-03
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In his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是一个独一无二的泡沫</blockquote>
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Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was","content":"<p>Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit </p><p><blockquote>最近去世的资深交易员马克-D-库克（Mark D. Cook）密切关注着市场的健康状况，并坚信美国股市将遭受重大打击。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865d26c02bd3c70a229cd8062ec20b9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mark D. Cook</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马克·D·库克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.</p><p><blockquote>马克-D-库克（Mark D. Cook）是一位资深期权交易员，曾出现在作家杰克-施瓦格（Jack Schwager）的畅销书《股票市场奇才》（Stock Market Wizards）中。我原本计划与他交谈，讨论他对美国股市的看跌观点，美国股市每周都变得越来越不祥，并分享了他每天两次的市场咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p> Cook was an old-school S&P 500 futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.</p><p><blockquote>库克是一位老派的标普500期货交易员。1987 年 10 月股市崩盘后，由于他密切关注的纽约证券交易所 TICK 指标信号的强度，他在经济低迷前买入了看跌期权，从而赚到了他的第一个 100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).</p><p><blockquote>库克在股票交易方面还取得了其他重大成功，包括 1992 年经审计的年回报率为 563%，1993 年的年回报率为 322%。库克还因预测2001年和2008年美国股市崩盘而闻名（并做空市场赚了一笔小钱）。</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，他预测始于2009年的美国牛市也会遭遇类似命运。他和我甚至合作写了一本关于熊市的书，于2015年出版。在我们最近的谈话中，库克表示他确信当前的牛市已进入最后阶段。他说时间太长，涨得太高了。</blockquote></p><p> “Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.</p><p><blockquote>“库克曾经告诉我：”想象一下煤气泄漏的空置大楼。“煤气已经泄漏很久了。煤气泄漏的时间越长，爆炸就越大。引发爆炸需要催化剂，但没有人知道触发点是什么。煤气在里面的时间越长，被忽视和遗忘，爆炸就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”股市就像一栋空置的大楼。当它爆炸时，结果将是可怕的。他预计这个市场会出现最坏的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Cook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.</p><p><blockquote>库克经常说，他的警告不是为了吓唬投资者，而是为了在熊市到来时帮助保护他们。他也足够灵活，可以在崩盘后转为看涨，2008 年后他成功做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Yet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到了 2016 年，库克对美联储的疯狂购买债券感到愤怒，并认为金融市场应该不受中央银行干预。到了今年，库克确信美国市场的估值已经膨胀到有史以来最大的泡沫--一旦泡沫破裂，将摧毁美国经济和投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:</p><p><blockquote>虽然很难预测熊市何时临近，但还是有一些线索的。以下是库克的一些关键信号：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Watch how the S&P 500 rallies</b>: Cook paid attention when S&P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 观看标普500如何反弹</b>：库克在标普500集会疲软或失败时给予关注。他说，你可以更多地通过市场上涨的方式而不是下跌的方式来判断市场的强弱。他称之为 “一日奇迹”，这意味着标普500可能会出现 1% 或 2%（或更多）的反弹，但不会延续到第二天。</blockquote></p><p> Even more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.</p><p><blockquote>更令人担忧的是，如果早盘强劲的反弹在当天结束时逆转方向，库克将其视为一个重要的警告信号。通常，在牛市中，强劲而健康的反弹不会持续一天，而是连续几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails:</b> Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.</p><p><blockquote><b>2、逢低买入策略失败：</b>逢低买入在牛市中非常有效，但在熊市中却失败了。当逢低买入交易受到惩罚时，库克知道要么改变策略，要么冒着被砍掉的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall</b>: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、价格永远是最后一个下跌的指标</b>库克经常说，公众关注股票价格，寻找熊市的线索，但股价是最后一张倒下的多米诺骨牌。没有人知道是什么导致了崩盘或熊市。催化剂通常来自无人预见的来源，打击已经疲软的市场。价格暴跌，每个人都意识到市场陷入了严重的麻烦。根据库克的说法，这些线索在几周甚至几个月前就很明显了。</blockquote></p><p> Cook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>库克不喜欢市场崩盘，因为它们扼杀了波动性。他常说，崩盘对任何人都没有好处，尤其是交易者。库克靠波动性赚钱。他宁愿偶尔进行 10% 的修正，也不愿崩盘。他告诉我，他在调整和熊市期间赚了最多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> It also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.</p><p><blockquote>库克也很困扰，他在这么多投资者遭受损失的情况下赚了钱。库克等卖空者经常被鄙视，甚至被指责为市场崩盘的罪魁祸首。库克不得不面对被点名和不被邀请在典型的看涨财经新闻节目中分享他的观点的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:</p><p><blockquote>以下是库克在崩盘和熊市中茁壮成长的一些方式。请记住，这些策略主要针对交易者：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.</li> <li>Buy puts on the S&P 500.</li> <li>Buy inverse ETFs.</li> <li>Short individual stocks.</li> </ol> Cook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>卖出多头头寸并转入现金，直到风暴过去。</li><li>购买标普500上的看跌期权。</li><li>购买反向 ETF。</li><li>做空个股。</li></ol>库克说，对许多交易者来说，最谨慎的策略是转向现金或在自己觉得舒服的时候卖出股票。转向现金并不是为了盈利，而是为了保护您的投资组合，并准备好利用未来的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>库克说，你必须知道自己能接受多少痛苦（即风险承受能力）。如果你能应对30%或40%的低迷，那就坚持到底。如果没有，就移到场边。</blockquote></p><p> Another key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>在熊市和崩盘中生存下来的另一个关键是多元化。如果你的投资组合是多元化的，就没有理由恐慌，这是许多人在市场损失20%或更多时做的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Cook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It <i>always</i> happens.”</p><p><blockquote>库克还留下了其他宝贵的交易智慧： “他写道：”必须强调的一点是，熊市并不坏。把回调和熊市看作是交易机会。当灰熊紧随其后时，买入会暂停，然后全力上涨。当熊市到来时，人们会陷入非理性的思维和行为。它<i>一直</i>会发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> He added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说： “抓住机会了解下跌市场。你还应该为熊市结束后出现的下一个牛市做好准备。那时你才能真正表现出色。虽然空头交易需要良好的时机技巧和经验，但在上涨市场交易更容易。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是一个独一无二的泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是一个独一无二的泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 16:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit </p><p><blockquote>最近去世的资深交易员马克-D-库克（Mark D. Cook）密切关注着市场的健康状况，并坚信美国股市将遭受重大打击。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865d26c02bd3c70a229cd8062ec20b9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mark D. Cook</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马克·D·库克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.</p><p><blockquote>马克-D-库克（Mark D. Cook）是一位资深期权交易员，曾出现在作家杰克-施瓦格（Jack Schwager）的畅销书《股票市场奇才》（Stock Market Wizards）中。我原本计划与他交谈，讨论他对美国股市的看跌观点，美国股市每周都变得越来越不祥，并分享了他每天两次的市场咨询服务。</blockquote></p><p> Cook was an old-school S&P 500 futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.</p><p><blockquote>库克是一位老派的标普500期货交易员。1987 年 10 月股市崩盘后，由于他密切关注的纽约证券交易所 TICK 指标信号的强度，他在经济低迷前买入了看跌期权，从而赚到了他的第一个 100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).</p><p><blockquote>库克在股票交易方面还取得了其他重大成功，包括 1992 年经审计的年回报率为 563%，1993 年的年回报率为 322%。库克还因预测2001年和2008年美国股市崩盘而闻名（并做空市场赚了一笔小钱）。</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，他预测始于2009年的美国牛市也会遭遇类似命运。他和我甚至合作写了一本关于熊市的书，于2015年出版。在我们最近的谈话中，库克表示他确信当前的牛市已进入最后阶段。他说时间太长，涨得太高了。</blockquote></p><p> “Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.</p><p><blockquote>“库克曾经告诉我：”想象一下煤气泄漏的空置大楼。“煤气已经泄漏很久了。煤气泄漏的时间越长，爆炸就越大。引发爆炸需要催化剂，但没有人知道触发点是什么。煤气在里面的时间越长，被忽视和遗忘，爆炸就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”股市就像一栋空置的大楼。当它爆炸时，结果将是可怕的。他预计这个市场会出现最坏的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Cook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.</p><p><blockquote>库克经常说，他的警告不是为了吓唬投资者，而是为了在熊市到来时帮助保护他们。他也足够灵活，可以在崩盘后转为看涨，2008 年后他成功做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Yet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到了 2016 年，库克对美联储的疯狂购买债券感到愤怒，并认为金融市场应该不受中央银行干预。到了今年，库克确信美国市场的估值已经膨胀到有史以来最大的泡沫--一旦泡沫破裂，将摧毁美国经济和投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:</p><p><blockquote>虽然很难预测熊市何时临近，但还是有一些线索的。以下是库克的一些关键信号：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Watch how the S&P 500 rallies</b>: Cook paid attention when S&P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.</p><p><blockquote><b>1. 观看标普500如何反弹</b>：库克在标普500集会疲软或失败时给予关注。他说，你可以更多地通过市场上涨的方式而不是下跌的方式来判断市场的强弱。他称之为 “一日奇迹”，这意味着标普500可能会出现 1% 或 2%（或更多）的反弹，但不会延续到第二天。</blockquote></p><p> Even more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.</p><p><blockquote>更令人担忧的是，如果早盘强劲的反弹在当天结束时逆转方向，库克将其视为一个重要的警告信号。通常，在牛市中，强劲而健康的反弹不会持续一天，而是连续几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails:</b> Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.</p><p><blockquote><b>2、逢低买入策略失败：</b>逢低买入在牛市中非常有效，但在熊市中却失败了。当逢低买入交易受到惩罚时，库克知道要么改变策略，要么冒着被砍掉的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall</b>: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、价格永远是最后一个下跌的指标</b>库克经常说，公众关注股票价格，寻找熊市的线索，但股价是最后一张倒下的多米诺骨牌。没有人知道是什么导致了崩盘或熊市。催化剂通常来自无人预见的来源，打击已经疲软的市场。价格暴跌，每个人都意识到市场陷入了严重的麻烦。根据库克的说法，这些线索在几周甚至几个月前就很明显了。</blockquote></p><p> Cook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>库克不喜欢市场崩盘，因为它们扼杀了波动性。他常说，崩盘对任何人都没有好处，尤其是交易者。库克靠波动性赚钱。他宁愿偶尔进行 10% 的修正，也不愿崩盘。他告诉我，他在调整和熊市期间赚了最多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> It also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.</p><p><blockquote>库克也很困扰，他在这么多投资者遭受损失的情况下赚了钱。库克等卖空者经常被鄙视，甚至被指责为市场崩盘的罪魁祸首。库克不得不面对被点名和不被邀请在典型的看涨财经新闻节目中分享他的观点的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:</p><p><blockquote>以下是库克在崩盘和熊市中茁壮成长的一些方式。请记住，这些策略主要针对交易者：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.</li> <li>Buy puts on the S&P 500.</li> <li>Buy inverse ETFs.</li> <li>Short individual stocks.</li> </ol> Cook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>卖出多头头寸并转入现金，直到风暴过去。</li><li>购买标普500上的看跌期权。</li><li>购买反向 ETF。</li><li>做空个股。</li></ol>库克说，对许多交易者来说，最谨慎的策略是转向现金或在自己觉得舒服的时候卖出股票。转向现金并不是为了盈利，而是为了保护您的投资组合，并准备好利用未来的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>库克说，你必须知道自己能接受多少痛苦（即风险承受能力）。如果你能应对30%或40%的低迷，那就坚持到底。如果没有，就移到场边。</blockquote></p><p> Another key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>在熊市和崩盘中生存下来的另一个关键是多元化。如果你的投资组合是多元化的，就没有理由恐慌，这是许多人在市场损失20%或更多时做的事情。</blockquote></p><p> Cook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It <i>always</i> happens.”</p><p><blockquote>库克还留下了其他宝贵的交易智慧： “他写道：”必须强调的一点是，熊市并不坏。把回调和熊市看作是交易机会。当灰熊紧随其后时，买入会暂停，然后全力上涨。当熊市到来时，人们会陷入非理性的思维和行为。它<i>一直</i>会发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> He added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说： “抓住机会了解下跌市场。你还应该为熊市结束后出现的下一个牛市做好准备。那时你才能真正表现出色。虽然空头交易需要良好的时机技巧和经验，但在上涨市场交易更容易。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-his-final-warning-this-stock-trading-wizard-who-made-big-money-in-bear-markets-and-crashes-called-this-market-a-bubble-like-no-other-11638434148?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1638520638\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-his-final-warning-this-stock-trading-wizard-who-made-big-money-in-bear-markets-and-crashes-called-this-market-a-bubble-like-no-other-11638434148?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1638520638","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155940411","content_text":"Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit \nMark D. Cook\n\nMark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.\nCook was an old-school S&P 500 futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.\nCook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).\nIn recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.\n“Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.\n“The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.\nCook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.\nYet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.\nAlthough it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:\n1. Watch how the S&P 500 rallies: Cook paid attention when S&P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.\nEven more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.\n2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails: Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.\n3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.\nCook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.\nIt also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.\nHere’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:\n\nSell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.\nBuy puts on the S&P 500.\nBuy inverse ETFs.\nShort individual stocks.\n\nCook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.\nCook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.\nAnother key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.\nCook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It always happens.”\nHe added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/601619889"}
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