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2021-12-08

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The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":602076948,"tweetId":"602076948","gmtCreate":1638949670826,"gmtModify":1638951026786,"author":{"id":3553254172092293,"idStr":"3553254172092293","authorId":3553254172092293,"authorIdStr":"3553254172092293","name":"DingDang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0c38ce6f3c2661fa15b7d1f52eeaf","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":42,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Buy the dips!&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Buy the dips!&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Buy the dips!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602076948","repostId":1119697932,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119697932","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638948374,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119697932?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 15:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119697932","media":"Barrons","summary":"Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for ","content":"Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>不要被大型科技股的上涨所迷惑。可能会有更多的痛苦，给标普500带来更多的麻烦。</blockquote> There’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Meta Platforms&nbsp;(FB),Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN),Netflix&nbsp;(NFLX),Alphabet&nbsp;(GOOGL),Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.<blockquote>不可否认，这些股票目前又在上涨。苹果（AAPL）、Meta Platforms（FB）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Netflix（NFLX）、Alphabet（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和特斯拉（TSLA）都从最近回调时达到的低点上涨了 3% 到 10%。从 11 月中旬到上周晚些时候，股市一直在下滑，因为美联储表示可能会比原计划更早采取行动，停止在疫情期间用于支撑经济的债券购买。</blockquote> Less money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.<blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，流入长期国债的资金减少，导致其价格下跌，从而推高了债务收益率。这些较高的利率降低了未来利润的当前贴现价值——这些科技巨头的投资者指望未来许多年内获得巨额利润。</blockquote> But it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.<blockquote>但大型科技股的痛苦还不能确定是否已经结束。</blockquote> The Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>美联储立场的转变将使大型科技股难以上涨。中央银行实际上印钞是为了购买债券，所以他们购买的债券越多，他们的资产负债表就越大。美国银行表示，债券购买减少意味着资产负债表增长放缓，这对大型科技股产生了影响。</blockquote> Its data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.<blockquote>其数据显示，央行资产负债表规模与大型科技公司估值之间存在密切相关。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行的资产负债表总规模已持平至25万亿美元左右，而大型科技股的市值则持续上升。</blockquote> The problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.<blockquote>问题是，根据历史数据，根据美国银行的数据，中央银行约 25 万亿美元的资产负债表意味着这些大型科技股的总市值约为 9 万亿美元。这意味着比目前的 11.3 万亿美元下降约 20%。</blockquote> A separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&amp;P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&amp;P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.<blockquote>另一个指标也暗示，大型科技公司的最佳表现可能已经结束。该集团的涨幅最近远远超过了标普500，以至于其总市值目前是自 2020 年 8 月以来标普500总市值中所占比例最高的。当然，那是在大型科技股都经历调整或至少下跌 10% 之前。</blockquote> Before that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.<blockquote>在此之前，上一次大型科技公司相对于更广泛的市场规模如此之大是在 2000 年，也就是互联网泡沫破裂之前。</blockquote> A poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&amp;P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&amp;P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.<blockquote>大型科技公司的糟糕表现可能会拖累标普500。该指数根据市值进行加权，因此当最大的股票下跌时，其影响比较小的公司下跌时更大。如果标普500要从这里获得稳健的收益，它将需要大型科技股以外的股票的帮助。</blockquote> That is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&amp;P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.<blockquote>这也远非确定无疑。根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至周一，纽约证券交易所上市股票交易价格高于 200 天移动平均线的比例略低于 50%，而在最好的时期这一比例接近 100%。该银行的数据显示，如果这么多股票继续以如此低的价格交易，标普500将从目前的水平下跌约 8%。</blockquote> One positive is that the S&amp;P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，自近期回调低点以来，标普500在四个交易日内上涨了约4%。本周，指数中绝大多数个股都参与了涨势。</blockquote> That is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.<blockquote>这是一个好兆头，但投资者需要看到该指数在更长时间内出现广泛上涨，才能对涨幅有信心。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Pain Isn’t Over for Big Tech Stocks. That’s Bad for the S&P 500.<blockquote>大型科技股的痛苦还没有结束。这对标普500不利。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-08 15:26\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nDon’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500.<blockquote>不要被大型科技股的上涨所迷惑。可能会有更多的痛苦，给标普500带来更多的麻烦。</blockquote> There’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple&nbsp;(AAPL),Meta Platforms&nbsp;(FB),Amazon.com&nbsp;(AMZN),Netflix&nbsp;(NFLX),Alphabet&nbsp;(GOOGL),Microsoft&nbsp;(MSFT), and&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;(TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.<blockquote>不可否认，这些股票目前又在上涨。苹果（AAPL）、Meta Platforms（FB）、亚马逊（AMZN）、Netflix（NFLX）、Alphabet（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和特斯拉（TSLA）都从最近回调时达到的低点上涨了 3% 到 10%。从 11 月中旬到上周晚些时候，股市一直在下滑，因为美联储表示可能会比原计划更早采取行动，停止在疫情期间用于支撑经济的债券购买。</blockquote> Less money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.<blockquote>在其他条件相同的情况下，流入长期国债的资金减少，导致其价格下跌，从而推高了债务收益率。这些较高的利率降低了未来利润的当前贴现价值——这些科技巨头的投资者指望未来许多年内获得巨额利润。</blockquote> But it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.<blockquote>但大型科技股的痛苦还不能确定是否已经结束。</blockquote> The Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.<blockquote>美联储立场的转变将使大型科技股难以上涨。中央银行实际上印钞是为了购买债券，所以他们购买的债券越多，他们的资产负债表就越大。美国银行表示，债券购买减少意味着资产负债表增长放缓，这对大型科技股产生了影响。</blockquote> Its data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.<blockquote>其数据显示，央行资产负债表规模与大型科技公司估值之间存在密切相关。美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行和英国央行的资产负债表总规模已持平至25万亿美元左右，而大型科技股的市值则持续上升。</blockquote> The problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.<blockquote>问题是，根据历史数据，根据美国银行的数据，中央银行约 25 万亿美元的资产负债表意味着这些大型科技股的总市值约为 9 万亿美元。这意味着比目前的 11.3 万亿美元下降约 20%。</blockquote> A separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&amp;P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&amp;P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.<blockquote>另一个指标也暗示，大型科技公司的最佳表现可能已经结束。该集团的涨幅最近远远超过了标普500，以至于其总市值目前是自 2020 年 8 月以来标普500总市值中所占比例最高的。当然，那是在大型科技股都经历调整或至少下跌 10% 之前。</blockquote> Before that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.<blockquote>在此之前，上一次大型科技公司相对于更广泛的市场规模如此之大是在 2000 年，也就是互联网泡沫破裂之前。</blockquote> A poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&amp;P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&amp;P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.<blockquote>大型科技公司的糟糕表现可能会拖累标普500。该指数根据市值进行加权，因此当最大的股票下跌时，其影响比较小的公司下跌时更大。如果标普500要从这里获得稳健的收益，它将需要大型科技股以外的股票的帮助。</blockquote> That is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&amp;P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.<blockquote>这也远非确定无疑。根据摩根士丹利的数据，截至周一，纽约证券交易所上市股票交易价格高于 200 天移动平均线的比例略低于 50%，而在最好的时期这一比例接近 100%。该银行的数据显示，如果这么多股票继续以如此低的价格交易，标普500将从目前的水平下跌约 8%。</blockquote> One positive is that the S&amp;P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.<blockquote>一个积极的方面是，自近期回调低点以来，标普500在四个交易日内上涨了约4%。本周，指数中绝大多数个股都参与了涨势。</blockquote> That is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.<blockquote>这是一个好兆头，但投资者需要看到该指数在更长时间内出现广泛上涨，才能对涨幅有信心。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-pain-stock-market-sp500-51638909682?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","TSLA":"特斯拉","MSFT":"微软",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","NFLX":"奈飞","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/big-tech-pain-stock-market-sp500-51638909682?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119697932","content_text":"Don’t be fooled by Big Tech stocks’ rise. There could be more pain, spelling additional trouble for the S&P 500.\nThere’s no denying that these stocks are on the up again, for now.Apple (AAPL),Meta Platforms (FB),Amazon.com (AMZN),Netflix (NFLX),Alphabet (GOOGL),Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) have all risen between 3% and 10% from the low points reached in their recent pullbacks. Stocks had been sliding from mid-November until late last week, as the Federal Reserve signaled that it might move sooner than planned to halt the bond purchases it has used to prop up the economy during the pandemic.\nLess money moving into long-dated Treasury bonds allows their prices to fall, all else being equal, pushing yields on the debt higher. Those higher interest rates reduce the current, discounted value of future profits—and investors in these tech giants are counting on big profits many years down the line.\nBut it’s far from certain that the pain for Big Tech stocks is over.\nThe Fed’s change in stance will make gains hard to come by for Big Tech stocks. Central banks effectively print money to buy bonds, so the more they purchase,, the bigger their balance sheets become. Less bond buying means slower balance-sheet growth, which makes a difference for Big Tech stocks, according to Bank of America.\nIts data show a close correlation between the size of central-bank balance sheets and Big Tech valuations. And the aggregate size of the balance sheets of the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England has flattened out at about $25 trillion, while the market capitalization of the Big Tech stocks has continued to rise.\nThe problem is that based on history, a central-bank balance sheet of about $25 trillion implies an the aggregate market capitalization for those Big Tech stocks of around $9 trillion, according to Bank of America’s data. That would mean a decline of about 20% from the current $11.3 trillion.\nA separate indicator also hints that the best of Big Tech’s outperformance may be over. The group’s gains have outpaced the S&P 500’s by so much recently that its total market cap is now the highest portion of the S&P 500’s total value since August 2020. That, of course, was just before the Big Tech stocks all experienced corrections, or declines of at least 10%.\nBefore that, the last time Big Tech was so large compared to the broader market was in 2000, before the dotcom bubble burst.\nA poor performance by Big Tech could drag the S&P 500 down. The index is weighted according to market cap, so when the biggest stocks fall, it makes more of a difference than when smaller companies decline. If the S&P 500 is to post solid gains from here, it will need the help of stocks outside of Big Tech.\nThat is also far from a certainty. The percentage of New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks that are trading above their 200-day moving averages was just under 50% as of Monday, compared with close to 100% during the best times, according to Morgan Stanley. If so many stocks keep trading at such low prices, the S&P 500 should fall about 8% from its current level, the bank’s data show.\nOne positive is that the S&P 500 has risen about 4% in the four trading days since the low of its recent pullback. This week, the vast majority of stocks on the index have participated in the rally.\nThat is a good sign, but investors will need to see the index stage a broad rally for longer in order to have confidence in the gains.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"FB":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602076948"}