SolidSnake
2021-12-08
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@SolidSnake
:Good review
BlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote>
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The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BB）的困境仍在继续。该公司的收益卡显示，今年前六个月的收入同比大幅下降，运营现金流/自由现金流为负。由于营收趋势仍未扭转，该股不宜买入！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家尚未找到自我的陷入困境的企业的模因热议</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓再次成为阅读广泛的投资论坛“WallStreetBets”上热议的话题，该论坛于2021年一举成名，当时大多数年轻投资者在Reddit上联合起来，成功迫使对冲基金平仓视频游戏零售商游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME）。由于尚未解决的业务挑战和较高的空头利率，黑莓今年早些时候开始作为潜在的轧空目标吸引更多关注。2021年，由于Reddit组织的大量散户买盘和试图引发轧空，黑莓股价两次飙升，但该股从高点回落。自6月份以来，黑莓股价下跌了50%。黑莓约7%的股票被做空。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fb3bca6ffae4613c23de2f92b9f565\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年围绕黑莓这个名字引起了热议，但该公司第二季度的业绩表明，业务挑战尚未成功解决，收入扭亏为盈仍未指日可待。黑莓22年第二季度的收入仅为1.75亿美元，营收同比下降32%。然而，由于网络安全收入增加，22年第二季度的收入环比增加了100万美元。由于账单增加，该公司的网络安全部门在第二季度增加了1300万美元的收入，但该部门在22年第二季度的收入水平仍与去年同期大致相同，约为1.2亿美元。物联网/IoT部门创造了4000万美元的收入，环比下降了300万美元。黑莓的物联网部门包括其QNX操作系统产生的收入，该操作系统嵌入在超过1.95亿辆汽车中。黑莓与QNX相关的收入主要来自基于生产的特许权使用费，因此该细分市场的收入前景与汽车行业的扭亏为盈前景密不可分。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓第二季度的毛利率也继续下降，毛利率从21年第二季度的76.8%下降至22年第二季度的64.0%。以美元计算的毛利率同比下降43.7%，仅为1.12亿美元。第二季度的美元损失总额增加了6倍，达到1.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab3b3f9b4831b274e249874f90d6048\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...</p><p><blockquote>尽管黑莓的销售额环比增长了100万美元，但长期趋势显示其收入基础持续受到侵蚀。该公司在第二季度尚未好转，黑莓的苦难也尚未结束……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2189338d5de276eccdabcba751abc9c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).</p><p><blockquote>然而，黑莓第二季度的经营活动产生了1200万美元的正现金流。投资后，仍有1000万美元的自由现金流……按利润率计算仅为5.7%。由于22年第一季度经营活动产生的现金流为负，2022财年前六个月的自由现金流为2500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b098aba440234948d23ebcda42dce31c\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"719\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> BlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓预计，与上半年相比，其网络安全和物联网这两项主要业务下半年的收入将更加强劲。黑莓为其第二季度电话会议的收入指引（文字记录）进行了辩护，并表示网络安全业务在2022财年的收入应在4.95亿美元至5.15亿美元之间，收入可能会落入该范围的低端。物联网业务预计本财年将产生1.8亿至2亿美元的收入，尽管销售增长前景与汽车行业半导体的更好流动有关。根据电话会议提供的补充信息，黑莓认为2022财年下半年汽车行业复苏存在相关风险……这将影响QNX相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add7445e97b78d23bead4bc80eed56ea\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入形势、亏损和负自由现金流充满挑战，黑莓的市盈率仍为6.7……这是通常为快速扩张和收入增长的公司保留的乘数。黑莓现在只提供这样一家公司的估值，而不提供基本面。市盈率假设2023财年销售额为8.82亿美元。收入预期也在下降...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773ca1b25e7c697a10b122383650945e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with BlackBerry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黑莓的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的收入仍然长期下降，到目前为止，还没有任何证据可以让市场相信情况正在好转。尽管该公司正试图通过网络安全和物联网进入新的业务方向，但收入挑战依然存在，黑莓的自由现金流并不多，毛利率下降并不完全是商业业绩增强的证据。如果黑莓找不到解决其持续收入下降和负自由现金流的方法，市场可能会对黑莓失去耐心，并用较低的销售乘数来惩罚它。</blockquote></p><p> If BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.</p><p><blockquote>如果黑莓在2022财年最后两个季度获得收入势头，实现更高的毛利率并产生正的自由现金流，那么我愿意改变对该股的前景。然而，鉴于黑莓黯淡的收入和利润率历史，这种情况发生的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的业务继续陷入流沙，在可预见的未来，任何投资于该公司的资金都可能是“死钱”。黑莓取得实质性进展的速度不够快，收入同比大幅下降令人刺痛。黑莓需要收入和现金流出现更强劲的反弹才能增长到目前的市值。根据黑莓的商业表现，该股仍然被严重高估！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 18:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>BlackBerry continues to face significant revenue challenges.</li> <li>A steep year-over-year revenue decline and lower gross margins loomed large in BlackBerry’s Q2’22 earnings card.</li> <li>BlackBerry remains overvalued.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2900b6aa2b86f6c931a20cf5419d1493\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"983\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>da-kuk/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>黑莓继续面临重大的收入挑战。</li><li>黑莓22年第二季度的收益卡中，收入同比大幅下降和毛利率下降尤为突出。</li><li>黑莓仍然被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>da-kuk/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's(NYSE:BB)struggles continue. The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BB）的困境仍在继续。该公司的收益卡显示，今年前六个月的收入同比大幅下降，运营现金流/自由现金流为负。由于营收趋势仍未扭转，该股不宜买入！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一家尚未找到自我的陷入困境的企业的模因热议</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓再次成为阅读广泛的投资论坛“WallStreetBets”上热议的话题，该论坛于2021年一举成名，当时大多数年轻投资者在Reddit上联合起来，成功迫使对冲基金平仓视频游戏零售商游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所代码：GME）。由于尚未解决的业务挑战和较高的空头利率，黑莓今年早些时候开始作为潜在的轧空目标吸引更多关注。2021年，由于Reddit组织的大量散户买盘和试图引发轧空，黑莓股价两次飙升，但该股从高点回落。自6月份以来，黑莓股价下跌了50%。黑莓约7%的股票被做空。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fb3bca6ffae4613c23de2f92b9f565\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年围绕黑莓这个名字引起了热议，但该公司第二季度的业绩表明，业务挑战尚未成功解决，收入扭亏为盈仍未指日可待。黑莓22年第二季度的收入仅为1.75亿美元，营收同比下降32%。然而，由于网络安全收入增加，22年第二季度的收入环比增加了100万美元。由于账单增加，该公司的网络安全部门在第二季度增加了1300万美元的收入，但该部门在22年第二季度的收入水平仍与去年同期大致相同，约为1.2亿美元。物联网/IoT部门创造了4000万美元的收入，环比下降了300万美元。黑莓的物联网部门包括其QNX操作系统产生的收入，该操作系统嵌入在超过1.95亿辆汽车中。黑莓与QNX相关的收入主要来自基于生产的特许权使用费，因此该细分市场的收入前景与汽车行业的扭亏为盈前景密不可分。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓第二季度的毛利率也继续下降，毛利率从21年第二季度的76.8%下降至22年第二季度的64.0%。以美元计算的毛利率同比下降43.7%，仅为1.12亿美元。第二季度的美元损失总额增加了6倍，达到1.44亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab3b3f9b4831b274e249874f90d6048\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...</p><p><blockquote>尽管黑莓的销售额环比增长了100万美元，但长期趋势显示其收入基础持续受到侵蚀。该公司在第二季度尚未好转，黑莓的苦难也尚未结束……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2189338d5de276eccdabcba751abc9c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).</p><p><blockquote>然而，黑莓第二季度的经营活动产生了1200万美元的正现金流。投资后，仍有1000万美元的自由现金流……按利润率计算仅为5.7%。由于22年第一季度经营活动产生的现金流为负，2022财年前六个月的自由现金流为2500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b098aba440234948d23ebcda42dce31c\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"719\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> BlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓预计，与上半年相比，其网络安全和物联网这两项主要业务下半年的收入将更加强劲。黑莓为其第二季度电话会议的收入指引（文字记录）进行了辩护，并表示网络安全业务在2022财年的收入应在4.95亿美元至5.15亿美元之间，收入可能会落入该范围的低端。物联网业务预计本财年将产生1.8亿至2亿美元的收入，尽管销售增长前景与汽车行业半导体的更好流动有关。根据电话会议提供的补充信息，黑莓认为2022财年下半年汽车行业复苏存在相关风险……这将影响QNX相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add7445e97b78d23bead4bc80eed56ea\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入形势、亏损和负自由现金流充满挑战，黑莓的市盈率仍为6.7……这是通常为快速扩张和收入增长的公司保留的乘数。黑莓现在只提供这样一家公司的估值，而不提供基本面。市盈率假设2023财年销售额为8.82亿美元。收入预期也在下降...</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773ca1b25e7c697a10b122383650945e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with BlackBerry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黑莓的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的收入仍然长期下降，到目前为止，还没有任何证据可以让市场相信情况正在好转。尽管该公司正试图通过网络安全和物联网进入新的业务方向，但收入挑战依然存在，黑莓的自由现金流并不多，毛利率下降并不完全是商业业绩增强的证据。如果黑莓找不到解决其持续收入下降和负自由现金流的方法，市场可能会对黑莓失去耐心，并用较低的销售乘数来惩罚它。</blockquote></p><p> If BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.</p><p><blockquote>如果黑莓在2022财年最后两个季度获得收入势头，实现更高的毛利率并产生正的自由现金流，那么我愿意改变对该股的前景。然而，鉴于黑莓黯淡的收入和利润率历史，这种情况发生的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的业务继续陷入流沙，在可预见的未来，任何投资于该公司的资金都可能是“死钱”。黑莓取得实质性进展的速度不够快，收入同比大幅下降令人刺痛。黑莓需要收入和现金流出现更强劲的反弹才能增长到目前的市值。根据黑莓的商业表现，该股仍然被严重高估！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457135-blackberry-bb-stock-earnings-dead-money\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457135-blackberry-bb-stock-earnings-dead-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163556498","content_text":"Summary\n\nBlackBerry continues to face significant revenue challenges.\nA steep year-over-year revenue decline and lower gross margins loomed large in BlackBerry’s Q2’22 earnings card.\nBlackBerry remains overvalued.\n\nda-kuk/E+ via Getty Images\nBlackBerry's(NYSE:BB)struggles continue. The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!\nMeme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet\nBlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.\nData by YCharts\nDespite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.\nBlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.\nSource: BlackBerry\nAlthough BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...\nData by YCharts\nBlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).\nSource: BlackBerry\nBlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.\nSource: BlackBerry\nDespite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...\nData by YCharts\nRisks with BlackBerry\nBlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.\nIf BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.\nFinal thoughts\nBlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2300,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602365289"}
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