SolidSnake
2021-12-08
Good//
@SolidSnake
:Good review
BlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote>
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The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BB）的困境仍在继续。该公司的收益卡显示，今年前六个月的收入同比大幅下降，运营现金流/自由现金流为负。由于收入趋势仍未逆转，因此该股不值得买入!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因热议一家尚未找到自我的苦苦挣扎的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓再次成为广泛阅读的投资论坛“WallStreetBets”上热议的话题，该论坛在 2021 年一举成名，当时大多数年轻投资者在 Reddit 上联合起来，成功迫使对冲基金平仓视频游戏零售商游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）。由于尚未解决的业务挑战和较高的空头利率，黑莓今年早些时候开始作为潜在的挤空目标吸引更多关注。2021 年，由于 Reddit 组织的大量零售购买和试图引发空头挤压，黑莓股价两次飙升，但该股从高点回落。自 6 月份以来，黑莓股价下跌了 50%。黑莓约7%的股票被做空。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fb3bca6ffae4613c23de2f92b9f565\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年围绕黑莓这个名字出现了模因热议，但该公司第二季度的业绩显示，业务挑战尚未成功解决，收入好转仍未指日可待。黑莓 2022 年第二季度仅产生 1.75 亿美元的收入，营收同比下降 32%。然而，由于网络安全收入的增加，22 年第二季度的收入环比增加了 100 万美元。由于账单增强，该公司的网络安全部门第二季度收入增加了 1300 万美元，但该部门在 2022 年第二季度的收入仍与去年同期大致相同，约为 1.2 亿美元。物联网/物联网部门创造了4000万美元的收入，环比下降了300万美元。黑莓的物联网部门包括其嵌入在超过 1.95 亿辆汽车中的 QNX 操作系统产生的收入。黑莓与 QNX 相关的收入主要来自基于生产的特许权使用费，因此该细分市场的收入前景与汽车行业的扭亏为盈前景密不可分。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓第二季度的毛利率也继续下降，毛利率从 21 年第二季度的 76.8% 降至 22 年第二季度的 64.0%。以美元表示的毛利率同比下降 43.7%，仅为 1.12 亿美元。第二季度美元总亏损增加了 6 倍，达到 1.44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab3b3f9b4831b274e249874f90d6048\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...</p><p><blockquote>尽管黑莓的销售额环比增长了 100 万美元，但长期趋势表明其收入基础持续受到侵蚀。该公司在第二季度还没有扭转局面，黑莓的痛苦还没有结束……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2189338d5de276eccdabcba751abc9c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).</p><p><blockquote>然而，黑莓第二季度的经营活动产生了 1200 万美元的正现金流。投资后，剩下1000万美元的自由现金流……计算出利润率仅为5.7%。由于 22 财年第一季度经营活动产生的负现金流，2022 财年前六个月的自由现金流为 2500 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b098aba440234948d23ebcda42dce31c\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"719\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> BlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.</p><p><blockquote>与上半年相比，黑莓下半年的收入将强于上半年。黑莓为其第二季度电话会议（文字记录）的收入指引进行了辩护，并表示网络安全业务在 2022 财年应产生 4.95 亿至 5.15 亿美元的收入，收入可能会落入该范围的低端。物联网业务预计本财年将产生 1.8 亿至 2 亿美元的收入，尽管销售增长的前景与汽车行业半导体的更好流动有关。根据电话会议提供的补充信息，黑莓认为 2022 财年下半年汽车行业复苏存在相关风险……这将影响 QNX 相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add7445e97b78d23bead4bc80eed56ea\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临严峻的收入形势、亏损和负自由现金流，黑莓的市盈率仍为 6.7……这是一个通常为快速扩张和增加收入的公司保留的乘数系数。黑莓现在只提供这样一家公司的估值，而不提供基本面。市盈率假设 2023 财年销售额为 8.82 亿美元。收入预期也在下降……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773ca1b25e7c697a10b122383650945e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with BlackBerry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黑莓风险</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的收入仍然长期下降，到目前为止，还没有证据表明市场相信情况正在好转。尽管该公司正试图进入网络安全和物联网的新业务方向，但收入挑战依然存在，黑莓的自由现金流并不大，毛利率下降并不完全是商业业绩增强的证据。如果黑莓找不到解决其持续收入下降和负自由现金流的办法，市场可能会对黑莓失去耐心，并以更低的销售乘数惩罚它。</blockquote></p><p> If BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.</p><p><blockquote>如果黑莓在 2022 财年最后两个季度获得收入势头，实现更高的毛利率并产生正的自由现金流，那么我愿意改变对该股的展望。然而，鉴于黑莓惨淡的收入和利润率历史，这种情况发生的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的业务继续陷入流沙，在可预见的未来，任何投资于该公司的资金都可能是“死钱”。黑莓取得的实质性进展不够快，收入同比大幅下降令人痛苦。黑莓需要更强劲的收入和现金流反弹才能增长到目前的市值。根据黑莓的商业表现，该股仍然被严重高估!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry Is Dead Money, Here's Why<blockquote>黑莓是死钱，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 18:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>BlackBerry continues to face significant revenue challenges.</li> <li>A steep year-over-year revenue decline and lower gross margins loomed large in BlackBerry’s Q2’22 earnings card.</li> <li>BlackBerry remains overvalued.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2900b6aa2b86f6c931a20cf5419d1493\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"983\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>da-kuk/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>黑莓继续面临巨大的收入挑战。</li><li>在黑莓 22 年第二季度的盈利卡上，收入同比大幅下降和毛利率下降显得尤为突出。</li><li>黑莓仍然被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>da-kuk/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's(NYSE:BB)struggles continue. The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BB）的困境仍在继续。该公司的收益卡显示，今年前六个月的收入同比大幅下降，运营现金流/自由现金流为负。由于收入趋势仍未逆转，因此该股不值得买入!</blockquote></p><p> <b>Meme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因热议一家尚未找到自我的苦苦挣扎的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓再次成为广泛阅读的投资论坛“WallStreetBets”上热议的话题，该论坛在 2021 年一举成名，当时大多数年轻投资者在 Reddit 上联合起来，成功迫使对冲基金平仓视频游戏零售商游戏驿站（纽约证券交易所股票代码：GME）。由于尚未解决的业务挑战和较高的空头利率，黑莓今年早些时候开始作为潜在的挤空目标吸引更多关注。2021 年，由于 Reddit 组织的大量零售购买和试图引发空头挤压，黑莓股价两次飙升，但该股从高点回落。自 6 月份以来，黑莓股价下跌了 50%。黑莓约7%的股票被做空。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0fb3bca6ffae4613c23de2f92b9f565\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年围绕黑莓这个名字出现了模因热议，但该公司第二季度的业绩显示，业务挑战尚未成功解决，收入好转仍未指日可待。黑莓 2022 年第二季度仅产生 1.75 亿美元的收入，营收同比下降 32%。然而，由于网络安全收入的增加，22 年第二季度的收入环比增加了 100 万美元。由于账单增强，该公司的网络安全部门第二季度收入增加了 1300 万美元，但该部门在 2022 年第二季度的收入仍与去年同期大致相同，约为 1.2 亿美元。物联网/物联网部门创造了4000万美元的收入，环比下降了300万美元。黑莓的物联网部门包括其嵌入在超过 1.95 亿辆汽车中的 QNX 操作系统产生的收入。黑莓与 QNX 相关的收入主要来自基于生产的特许权使用费，因此该细分市场的收入前景与汽车行业的扭亏为盈前景密不可分。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓第二季度的毛利率也继续下降，毛利率从 21 年第二季度的 76.8% 降至 22 年第二季度的 64.0%。以美元表示的毛利率同比下降 43.7%，仅为 1.12 亿美元。第二季度美元总亏损增加了 6 倍，达到 1.44 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab3b3f9b4831b274e249874f90d6048\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Although BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...</p><p><blockquote>尽管黑莓的销售额环比增长了 100 万美元，但长期趋势表明其收入基础持续受到侵蚀。该公司在第二季度还没有扭转局面，黑莓的痛苦还没有结束……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2189338d5de276eccdabcba751abc9c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).</p><p><blockquote>然而，黑莓第二季度的经营活动产生了 1200 万美元的正现金流。投资后，剩下1000万美元的自由现金流……计算出利润率仅为5.7%。由于 22 财年第一季度经营活动产生的负现金流，2022 财年前六个月的自由现金流为 2500 万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b098aba440234948d23ebcda42dce31c\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"719\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> BlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.</p><p><blockquote>与上半年相比，黑莓下半年的收入将强于上半年。黑莓为其第二季度电话会议（文字记录）的收入指引进行了辩护，并表示网络安全业务在 2022 财年应产生 4.95 亿至 5.15 亿美元的收入，收入可能会落入该范围的低端。物联网业务预计本财年将产生 1.8 亿至 2 亿美元的收入，尽管销售增长的前景与汽车行业半导体的更好流动有关。根据电话会议提供的补充信息，黑莓认为 2022 财年下半年汽车行业复苏存在相关风险……这将影响 QNX 相关收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add7445e97b78d23bead4bc80eed56ea\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"225\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BlackBerry</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：黑莓</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临严峻的收入形势、亏损和负自由现金流，黑莓的市盈率仍为 6.7……这是一个通常为快速扩张和增加收入的公司保留的乘数系数。黑莓现在只提供这样一家公司的估值，而不提供基本面。市盈率假设 2023 财年销售额为 8.82 亿美元。收入预期也在下降……</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/773ca1b25e7c697a10b122383650945e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks with BlackBerry</b></p><p><blockquote><b>黑莓风险</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的收入仍然长期下降，到目前为止，还没有证据表明市场相信情况正在好转。尽管该公司正试图进入网络安全和物联网的新业务方向，但收入挑战依然存在，黑莓的自由现金流并不大，毛利率下降并不完全是商业业绩增强的证据。如果黑莓找不到解决其持续收入下降和负自由现金流的办法，市场可能会对黑莓失去耐心，并以更低的销售乘数惩罚它。</blockquote></p><p> If BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.</p><p><blockquote>如果黑莓在 2022 财年最后两个季度获得收入势头，实现更高的毛利率并产生正的自由现金流，那么我愿意改变对该股的展望。然而，鉴于黑莓惨淡的收入和利润率历史，这种情况发生的可能性很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!</p><p><blockquote>黑莓的业务继续陷入流沙，在可预见的未来，任何投资于该公司的资金都可能是“死钱”。黑莓取得的实质性进展不够快，收入同比大幅下降令人痛苦。黑莓需要更强劲的收入和现金流反弹才能增长到目前的市值。根据黑莓的商业表现，该股仍然被严重高估!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457135-blackberry-bb-stock-earnings-dead-money\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457135-blackberry-bb-stock-earnings-dead-money","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163556498","content_text":"Summary\n\nBlackBerry continues to face significant revenue challenges.\nA steep year-over-year revenue decline and lower gross margins loomed large in BlackBerry’s Q2’22 earnings card.\nBlackBerry remains overvalued.\n\nda-kuk/E+ via Getty Images\nBlackBerry's(NYSE:BB)struggles continue. The firm's earnings card showed a large revenue drop year over year and negative operating cash flow/free cash flow for the first six months of the year. Since the revenue trend still hasn't been reversed, the stock is not a buy!\nMeme buzz for a struggling business that hasn't found itself yet\nBlackBerry is once again a hotly discussed subject on the widely read investment forum \"WallStreetBets\", which shot to fame in 2021 when mostly younger investors banded together on Reddit and successfully forced hedge funds to close their short positions in video game retailer GameStop(NYSE:GME). BlackBerry started to attract more attention as a potential short squeeze target earlier this year due to its unresolved business challenges and high short interest ratio. In 2021, shares of BlackBerry spiked twice on heavy, Reddit-organized retail buying and attempts to ignite a short squeeze, but the stock faded from its highs. Shares of BlackBerry went through a 50% drop in pricing since June. About 7% of BlackBerry's shares are shorted.\nData by YCharts\nDespite meme buzz developing around the BlackBerry name this year, the firm's second-quarter showed that business challenges have not successfully been addressed yet and that a revenue turnaround is still not around the corner. BlackBerry generated just $175M in revenues in Q2'22, showing a top-line decline of 32% year over year. Q2'22 revenues, however, increased $1M quarter over quarter on higher Cyber Security revenues. The firm's Cyber Security segment added $13M in revenues in the second-quarter due to strengthening billings, but the segment still generated about the same level of revenues in Q2'22 as it did in the year-earlier period, about $120M. The Internet of Things/IoT segment generated $40M in revenues, a decline of $3M quarter over quarter. BlackBerry's IoT segment includes revenues generated from its QNX operating system which is embedded in more than 195M vehicles. BlackBerry's QNX-related revenues come chiefly from production-based royalties so the revenue outlook for this segment is inextricably tied to the turnaround prospects of the automotive industry.\nBlackBerry's gross margins also continued to decline in the second-quarter with gross margins falling from 76.8% in Q2'21 to 64.0% in Q2'22. Gross margin, expressed as dollars, declined 43.7% year over year to only $112M. Total dollar loss in the second-quarter increased by a factor of six to $144M.\nSource: BlackBerry\nAlthough BlackBerry generated a $1M increase in sales growth quarter over quarter, the longer-term trend shows a continual erosion of its revenue base. The firm has not turned the corner in the second-quarter and BlackBerry's suffering has not ended yet...\nData by YCharts\nBlackBerry, however, generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $12M in the second-quarter. After investments, $10M in free cash flow remained… which calculates to a margin of just 5.7%. Due to negative cash flow from operating activities in Q1'22, free cash flow for the first six months of FY 2022 was $(25M).\nSource: BlackBerry\nBlackBerry sees stronger revenues in the second half of the year compared to the first-half for both of its main businesses, Cyber Security and IoT. BlackBerry defended its revenue guidance on the second-quarter Conference Call (transcript) and said that the Cyber Security business should generate between $495M and $515M in revenues in FY 2022, with revenues likely to fall into the low end of the range. The IoT business is expected to generate $180M to $200M in revenues this fiscal year, although prospects for sales growth are related to a better flow of semiconductors in the automotive industry. Based on complementary information provided on the Conference Call, BlackBerry sees risks related to the recovery of the automotive sector in the second-half of FY 2022… which is set to impact QNX-related revenues.\nSource: BlackBerry\nDespite a challenging revenue situation, losses and negative free cash flow, BlackBerry trades at a P-S ratio of 6.7… a multiplier factor normally reserved for companies that are expanding and growing revenues rapidly. BlackBerry now offers only the valuation of such a company, but not the fundamentals. The P-S ratio assumes FY 2023 sales of $882M. Revenue estimates are also falling...\nData by YCharts\nRisks with BlackBerry\nBlackBerry is still subject to a long-term revenue decline and so far no evidence has come to light that could lead the market to believe that things are changing for the better. Although the firm is trying to move into a new business direction with Cyber Security and IoT, revenue challenges persist, BlackBerry's free cash flow is not great and declining gross margins are not exactly evidence of strengthening commercial performance. If BlackBerry doesn't find a solution to its consistent revenue declines and its negative free cash flow, the market could lose its patience with BlackBerry and punish it with a lower sales multiplier.\nIf BlackBerry gains revenue momentum in the last two quarters of FY 2022, achieves higher gross margins and generates positive free cash flow, then I am willing to change my outlook for the stock. Given BlackBerry's dim revenue and margin history, however, the chances of this happening are slim.\nFinal thoughts\nBlackBerry's business continues to be stuck in quicksand and any money invested in the firm is likely \"dead money\" for the foreseeable future. BlackBerry is not making material progress fast enough and the steep year-over-year revenue decline stings. BlackBerry needs a much stronger rebound in revenues and cash flow to grow into its current market value. Based on BlackBerry's commercial performance, the shares remain massively overvalued!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3367,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":28,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602365289"}
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