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2021-12-08
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Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further<blockquote>为什么洛兹敦股票可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":602972401,"tweetId":"602972401","gmtCreate":1638965952148,"gmtModify":1638965952302,"author":{"id":3569281512419792,"idStr":"3569281512419792","authorId":3569281512419792,"authorIdStr":"3569281512419792","name":"42a4eeda","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>K</p></body></html>","text":"K","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602972401","repostId":1110807624,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110807624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638965732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110807624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 20:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further<blockquote>为什么洛兹敦股票可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110807624","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nLordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.</li> <li>Commercial production of the Endurance electric truck is expected to begin in Q3 2022 and scale to ~30,000 trucks in 2023.</li> <li>But that's not nearly enough scale to reach profitability. Their financials suggest they will continue to burn cash for several years.</li> <li>Down more than 80% from highs, the stock still looks overvalued.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177cda1ae36b24dd7931e23fa6e9f667\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Lordstown Motors是一家尚未盈利的电动汽车公司。该公司过去曾存在争议，但在新任首席执行官的带领下正在向前发展。</li><li>Endurance电动卡车的商业生产预计将于2022年第三季度开始，并于2023年扩大到约30,000辆卡车。</li><li>但这还不足以实现盈利。他们的财务状况表明他们将在几年内继续烧钱。</li><li>该股较高点下跌超过80%，看起来仍被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>塔索斯·卡托波迪斯/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lordstown's Rocky start</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛兹敦的艰难开局</b></blockquote></p><p> Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is a pre-revenue EV company that is launching the Endurance electric truck next year with commercial production expected in Q3. That date was delayed from fall 2020 last year, and they were accused by a short-seller of faking or mispresenting some of the 100,000 pre-orders they claimed.</p><p><blockquote>Lordstown Motors(RIDE)是一家尚未盈利的电动汽车公司，将于明年推出Endurance电动卡车，预计将于第三季度投入商业生产。该日期从去年的2020年秋季推迟，他们被卖空者指控伪造或歪曲他们声称的10万份预购订单中的一些。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc55d82d6dcb02aa388fbd9af62089\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business Insider</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：商业内幕</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But that was under the previous CEO and founder Steve Burns who resigned in June. Lordstown brought in former Icahn Automotive CEO Daniel Ninivaggi as the new chief executive. There has only been a one-quarter delay in production since then.</p><p><blockquote>但那是在六月辞职的前任首席执行官兼创始人史蒂夫·伯恩斯(Steve Burns)的领导下。洛兹敦聘请伊坎汽车公司前首席执行官丹尼尔·尼尼瓦吉(Daniel Ninivaggi)担任新任首席执行官。从那以后，生产只推迟了四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> They recently entered a partnership with Foxconn, who will buy their production facility for $230 million and act as their contract manufacturer. This solves their near-term cash need but could lower their margin because Foxconn has to make a profit on each car as the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>他们最近与富士康建立了合作伙伴关系，富士康将以2.3亿美元购买他们的生产设施，并作为他们的合同制造商。这解决了他们近期的现金需求，但可能会降低他们的利润率，因为富士康作为制造商必须从每辆汽车上获利。</blockquote></p><p> With the stock down 80% from all-time highs and a market cap under $1B, you might expect this to be an undervalued stock in the EV sector. But the numbers suggest that even if they hit their production timeline, it won't justify their current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于该股较历史高点下跌80%，市值低于10亿美元，您可能会认为这是电动汽车行业中一只被低估的股票。但这些数字表明，即使他们达到了生产时间表，也不能证明他们目前的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bull Case\" for Lordstown</p><p><blockquote>洛兹敦的“牛市案例”</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to make early-stage projections, but let's try being generous. Assume there are no more delays, and production is scaled to meet the higher end of wall street revenue estimates, which would be 35,000 cars x $55,000 = $1.9 billion of revenue in 2023. That sounds like a lot compared to their $800M market cap, but they're not in a high-margin business.</p><p><blockquote>很难做出早期预测，但让我们试着慷慨一点。假设不再出现延误，并且生产规模达到华尔街收入预期的上限，即2023年35,000辆汽车x 55,000美元=19亿美元的收入。与他们8亿美元的市值相比，这听起来很多，但他们并不是从事高利润业务。</blockquote></p><p> Most automakers have gross margins in the 10-20% range, but trucks usually have a higher margin than other vehicles. So, assume Lordstown can match the 25% gross margin of the best-selling truck, the FordF-150. That also happens to be the approximate gross margin of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>大多数汽车制造商的毛利率在10-20%之间，但卡车的利润率通常高于其他车辆。因此，假设洛兹敦可以与最畅销卡车福特F-150 25%的毛利率相媲美。这也恰好是特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的大致毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> That leaves them with $1.9B x 25% = $475 million of gross profit in 2023. The problem is that, just in 2021, they will spend $110M on selling, general and administrative expenses, another $330M on R&D, and $380M in capital expenditures. We could assume CapEx will be lower in the future because they are outsourcing production, but keep in mind that Foxconn will now make a profit on each car they produce, so it still ends up as a cost to Lordstown. Meaning that if CapEx is lower in the future because production is outsourced, the gross margin will likely be lower than 25%.</p><p><blockquote>这使得他们在2023年的毛利润为19亿美元x 25%=4.75亿美元。问题是，仅在2021年，他们就将在销售、一般和管理费用上花费1.1亿美元，在R&D上另外花费3.3亿美元，在资本支出上花费3.8亿美元。我们可以假设未来的资本支出会更低，因为他们正在外包生产，但请记住，富士康现在将从他们生产的每辆汽车中获利，因此它最终仍然会成为洛兹敦的成本。这意味着，如果未来资本支出因生产外包而降低，毛利率可能会低于25%。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers suggest Lordstown will be burning cash in 2023 even if costs remain flat, which is a generous assumption since they are trending upwards as the company grows.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字表明，即使成本保持不变，洛兹敦也将在2023年烧钱，这是一个慷慨的假设，因为随着公司的发展，成本呈上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3075377f53a7595962bd05cac35db301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, even if Lordstown meets the production schedule, can make the same margin as the most successful truck brands, and keep costs flat, they might lose $100M or more in 2023, which is still 2 years away.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使洛兹敦满足生产计划，能够获得与最成功的卡车品牌相同的利润，并保持成本不变，他们也可能在2023年损失1亿美元或更多，距离2023年还有2年时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比赛</b></blockquote></p><p> If they won't be profitable in the next several years, the $800M value of the company must be justified by growth in the years beyond. The production facility now owned by Foxconn is said to have a capacity of 400,000 vehicles, so if they could scale beyond 35,000 vehicles after 2023 and control costs they could eventually be profitable. But once production is no longer an issue, sales and margin will be. They have stiff competition. Most notable is Tesla's Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们在未来几年内无法盈利，那么该公司8亿美元的价值必须通过未来几年的增长来证明是合理的。据说富士康现在拥有的生产设施的产能为40万辆，因此如果他们能够在2023年之后扩大到3.5万辆以上并控制成本，他们最终可能会盈利。但一旦生产不再是问题，销售和利润就会成为问题。他们有激烈的竞争。最引人注目的是特斯拉的Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c0ffd71c607f7dc2fe449a168d3f15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: electrek.co</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：electrek.co</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Its production timeline is similar to Lordstown's Endurance - production beginning in 2022 and scaling in 2023. The caveat is that Tesla is a trillion-dollar company that has spent 2x Lordstown's current market cap just in R&D over the past twelve months. That wasn't all on the Cybertruck, but it shows how much bigger the competition is.</p><p><blockquote>其生产时间表与Lordstown Endurance类似——2022年开始生产，2023年扩大规模。需要注意的是，特斯拉是一家价值万亿美元的公司，在过去12个月里，仅在研发方面的支出就是洛兹敦当前市值的2倍。这并不是Cybertruck的全部，但它表明竞争有多激烈。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is just the start. Rivian (RIVN) is another $90B market cap company launching an electric truck next year. Ford (F) expects to be producing 80,000 electric F150's in 2023, more than double Lordstown. General Motors (GM) is launching the first electric hummer this month and will bring an electric version of the Chevy Silverado to market in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉只是一个开始。Rivian(RIVN)是另一家市值900亿美元的公司，将于明年推出电动卡车。福特(F)预计到2023年将生产80,000辆电动F150，是洛兹敦的两倍多。通用汽车(GM)将于本月推出首款电动悍马，并将于2023年将雪佛兰索罗德的电动版本推向市场。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian plans to scale production to 150,000 by late 2023. Ford expects 80,000. Elon Musk thinks Tesla can produce 200,000-300,000 Cybertrucks, but analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate more like 100,000. GM will likely be capable of 50,000-100,000. That's 300,000-500,000 units from those 4 alone compared to 3,000,000 in annual US pickup truck sales. Electric car adoption is currently only 2%(though growing fast) in the US, and those 4 competitors could have enough capacity for more than 10-15% of pickup sales to be electric by 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian计划到2023年底将产量扩大到15万辆。福特预计8万。Elon Musk认为特斯拉可以生产20万-30万辆Cybertruck，但Morgan Stanley的分析师估计更像是10万辆。通用汽车可能有能力生产50,000-100,000辆。仅这4辆皮卡的销量就达到了300,000-500,000辆，而美国皮卡的年销量为3,000,000辆。目前，电动汽车在美国的采用率仅为2%（尽管增长迅速），这4个竞争对手可能有足够的产能，到2023年，超过10-15%的皮卡销量是电动的。</blockquote></p><p> Ram, the second best-selling pickup truck brand, will launch an electric truck in 2024.Toyota(NYSE:TM) and Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY)are also planning full-electric trucks. All those entrants to the electric truck market could mean that even if demand grows rapidly, supply might be high enough that Lordstown will have poor margins or never generate enough demand to scale further.</p><p><blockquote>第二畅销皮卡品牌Ram将于2024年推出电动卡车。丰田（NYSE：TM）和日产（OTCPK：NSANY）也在计划全电动卡车。所有这些进入电动卡车市场的人可能意味着，即使需求快速增长，供应也可能足够高，以至于洛兹敦的利润率将很低，或者永远不会产生足够的需求来进一步扩大规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash Burn</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金消耗</b></blockquote></p><p> The other EV players are many times bigger than Lordstown and most importantly can easily access billions of investment capital. Lordstown has a fraction of the capital and will likely need to issue more shares in the future to raise cash.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车公司的规模比洛兹敦大很多倍，最重要的是可以轻松获得数十亿美元的投资资本。洛兹敦拥有一小部分资本，未来可能需要发行更多股票来筹集现金。</blockquote></p><p> If they sell 15,000 cars in 2022 with a 25% gross profit margin, that's ~$200 million in gross profit. Their annual cost base is at least $400M ($110M SG&A + $200M R&D + >$100M CapEx). So, it's realistic to assume they earn $100-200M in gross profit and burn $200-300M in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们在2022年销售15,000辆汽车，毛利率为25%，那么毛利润约为2亿美元。他们的年度成本基础至少为4亿美元（1.1亿美元SG&A+2亿美元R&D+>1亿美元资本支出）。因此，假设他们在2022年获得1-2亿美元的毛利润并烧掉2-3亿美元是现实的。</blockquote></p><p> They have $220M on the balance sheet already and will make $200M from the sale of their facility to Foxconn by 2022. It's possible they go through most of that cash by the end of 2023 and need to raise more capital. There's no certainty they will be close to profitable by 2024, so they might need even more for the years after. At which point, they will still be a fraction of their competitors. The ultimate concern is that they won't be able to reach a profitable scale before their capital runs out.</p><p><blockquote>他们的资产负债表上已经有2.2亿美元，到2022年将通过将工厂出售给富士康获得2亿美元。到2023年底，他们可能会花光大部分现金，需要筹集更多资金。目前还不确定到2024年他们是否会接近盈利，因此在接下来的几年里他们可能需要更多。到那时，他们仍将是竞争对手的一小部分。最终的担忧是，在资本耗尽之前，他们将无法达到盈利规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Betting on Lordstown Motors doesn't seem worth the risk when they have to compete in a difficult industry with rivals that outmatch them in capacity, R&D, and access to capital. Even if they meet production targets without delay, they will lack scale and likely be unprofitable for many years. It seems like a long and unlikely road for this stock to succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当洛兹敦汽车公司必须在一个困难的行业中与在产能、研发和资本获取方面超过他们的竞争对手竞争时，押注洛兹敦汽车公司似乎不值得冒险。即使他们毫不拖延地达到生产目标，他们也将缺乏规模，并且很可能多年都无法盈利。这只股票的成功之路似乎很漫长，而且不太可能。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further<blockquote>为什么洛兹敦股票可能会进一步下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Lordstown Stock Might Fall Even Further<blockquote>为什么洛兹敦股票可能会进一步下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 20:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Lordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.</li> <li>Commercial production of the Endurance electric truck is expected to begin in Q3 2022 and scale to ~30,000 trucks in 2023.</li> <li>But that's not nearly enough scale to reach profitability. Their financials suggest they will continue to burn cash for several years.</li> <li>Down more than 80% from highs, the stock still looks overvalued.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177cda1ae36b24dd7931e23fa6e9f667\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Lordstown Motors是一家尚未盈利的电动汽车公司。该公司过去曾存在争议，但在新任首席执行官的带领下正在向前发展。</li><li>Endurance电动卡车的商业生产预计将于2022年第三季度开始，并于2023年扩大到约30,000辆卡车。</li><li>但这还不足以实现盈利。他们的财务状况表明他们将在几年内继续烧钱。</li><li>该股较高点下跌超过80%，看起来仍被高估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>塔索斯·卡托波迪斯/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Lordstown's Rocky start</b></p><p><blockquote><b>洛兹敦的艰难开局</b></blockquote></p><p> Lordstown Motors (RIDE) is a pre-revenue EV company that is launching the Endurance electric truck next year with commercial production expected in Q3. That date was delayed from fall 2020 last year, and they were accused by a short-seller of faking or mispresenting some of the 100,000 pre-orders they claimed.</p><p><blockquote>Lordstown Motors(RIDE)是一家尚未盈利的电动汽车公司，将于明年推出Endurance电动卡车，预计将于第三季度投入商业生产。该日期从去年的2020年秋季推迟，他们被卖空者指控伪造或歪曲他们声称的10万份预购订单中的一些。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc55d82d6dcb02aa388fbd9af62089\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Business Insider</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：商业内幕</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But that was under the previous CEO and founder Steve Burns who resigned in June. Lordstown brought in former Icahn Automotive CEO Daniel Ninivaggi as the new chief executive. There has only been a one-quarter delay in production since then.</p><p><blockquote>但那是在六月辞职的前任首席执行官兼创始人史蒂夫·伯恩斯(Steve Burns)的领导下。洛兹敦聘请伊坎汽车公司前首席执行官丹尼尔·尼尼瓦吉(Daniel Ninivaggi)担任新任首席执行官。从那以后，生产只推迟了四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> They recently entered a partnership with Foxconn, who will buy their production facility for $230 million and act as their contract manufacturer. This solves their near-term cash need but could lower their margin because Foxconn has to make a profit on each car as the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>他们最近与富士康建立了合作伙伴关系，富士康将以2.3亿美元购买他们的生产设施，并作为他们的合同制造商。这解决了他们近期的现金需求，但可能会降低他们的利润率，因为富士康作为制造商必须从每辆汽车上获利。</blockquote></p><p> With the stock down 80% from all-time highs and a market cap under $1B, you might expect this to be an undervalued stock in the EV sector. But the numbers suggest that even if they hit their production timeline, it won't justify their current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于该股较历史高点下跌80%，市值低于10亿美元，您可能会认为这是电动汽车行业中一只被低估的股票。但这些数字表明，即使他们达到了生产时间表，也不能证明他们目前的估值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bull Case\" for Lordstown</p><p><blockquote>洛兹敦的“牛市案例”</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to make early-stage projections, but let's try being generous. Assume there are no more delays, and production is scaled to meet the higher end of wall street revenue estimates, which would be 35,000 cars x $55,000 = $1.9 billion of revenue in 2023. That sounds like a lot compared to their $800M market cap, but they're not in a high-margin business.</p><p><blockquote>很难做出早期预测，但让我们试着慷慨一点。假设不再出现延误，并且生产规模达到华尔街收入预期的上限，即2023年35,000辆汽车x 55,000美元=19亿美元的收入。与他们8亿美元的市值相比，这听起来很多，但他们并不是从事高利润业务。</blockquote></p><p> Most automakers have gross margins in the 10-20% range, but trucks usually have a higher margin than other vehicles. So, assume Lordstown can match the 25% gross margin of the best-selling truck, the FordF-150. That also happens to be the approximate gross margin of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>大多数汽车制造商的毛利率在10-20%之间，但卡车的利润率通常高于其他车辆。因此，假设洛兹敦可以与最畅销卡车福特F-150 25%的毛利率相媲美。这也恰好是特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的大致毛利率。</blockquote></p><p> That leaves them with $1.9B x 25% = $475 million of gross profit in 2023. The problem is that, just in 2021, they will spend $110M on selling, general and administrative expenses, another $330M on R&D, and $380M in capital expenditures. We could assume CapEx will be lower in the future because they are outsourcing production, but keep in mind that Foxconn will now make a profit on each car they produce, so it still ends up as a cost to Lordstown. Meaning that if CapEx is lower in the future because production is outsourced, the gross margin will likely be lower than 25%.</p><p><blockquote>这使得他们在2023年的毛利润为19亿美元x 25%=4.75亿美元。问题是，仅在2021年，他们就将在销售、一般和管理费用上花费1.1亿美元，在R&D上另外花费3.3亿美元，在资本支出上花费3.8亿美元。我们可以假设未来的资本支出会更低，因为他们正在外包生产，但请记住，富士康现在将从他们生产的每辆汽车中获利，因此它最终仍然会成为洛兹敦的成本。这意味着，如果未来资本支出因生产外包而降低，毛利率可能会低于25%。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers suggest Lordstown will be burning cash in 2023 even if costs remain flat, which is a generous assumption since they are trending upwards as the company grows.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字表明，即使成本保持不变，洛兹敦也将在2023年烧钱，这是一个慷慨的假设，因为随着公司的发展，成本呈上升趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3075377f53a7595962bd05cac35db301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, even if Lordstown meets the production schedule, can make the same margin as the most successful truck brands, and keep costs flat, they might lose $100M or more in 2023, which is still 2 years away.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使洛兹敦满足生产计划，能够获得与最成功的卡车品牌相同的利润，并保持成本不变，他们也可能在2023年损失1亿美元或更多，距离2023年还有2年时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比赛</b></blockquote></p><p> If they won't be profitable in the next several years, the $800M value of the company must be justified by growth in the years beyond. The production facility now owned by Foxconn is said to have a capacity of 400,000 vehicles, so if they could scale beyond 35,000 vehicles after 2023 and control costs they could eventually be profitable. But once production is no longer an issue, sales and margin will be. They have stiff competition. Most notable is Tesla's Cybertruck.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们在未来几年内无法盈利，那么该公司8亿美元的价值必须通过未来几年的增长来证明是合理的。据说富士康现在拥有的生产设施的产能为40万辆，因此如果他们能够在2023年之后扩大到3.5万辆以上并控制成本，他们最终可能会盈利。但一旦生产不再是问题，销售和利润就会成为问题。他们有激烈的竞争。最引人注目的是特斯拉的Cybertruck。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46c0ffd71c607f7dc2fe449a168d3f15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: electrek.co</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：electrek.co</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Its production timeline is similar to Lordstown's Endurance - production beginning in 2022 and scaling in 2023. The caveat is that Tesla is a trillion-dollar company that has spent 2x Lordstown's current market cap just in R&D over the past twelve months. That wasn't all on the Cybertruck, but it shows how much bigger the competition is.</p><p><blockquote>其生产时间表与Lordstown Endurance类似——2022年开始生产，2023年扩大规模。需要注意的是，特斯拉是一家价值万亿美元的公司，在过去12个月里，仅在研发方面的支出就是洛兹敦当前市值的2倍。这并不是Cybertruck的全部，但它表明竞争有多激烈。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is just the start. Rivian (RIVN) is another $90B market cap company launching an electric truck next year. Ford (F) expects to be producing 80,000 electric F150's in 2023, more than double Lordstown. General Motors (GM) is launching the first electric hummer this month and will bring an electric version of the Chevy Silverado to market in 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉只是一个开始。Rivian(RIVN)是另一家市值900亿美元的公司，将于明年推出电动卡车。福特(F)预计到2023年将生产80,000辆电动F150，是洛兹敦的两倍多。通用汽车(GM)将于本月推出首款电动悍马，并将于2023年将雪佛兰索罗德的电动版本推向市场。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian plans to scale production to 150,000 by late 2023. Ford expects 80,000. Elon Musk thinks Tesla can produce 200,000-300,000 Cybertrucks, but analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate more like 100,000. GM will likely be capable of 50,000-100,000. That's 300,000-500,000 units from those 4 alone compared to 3,000,000 in annual US pickup truck sales. Electric car adoption is currently only 2%(though growing fast) in the US, and those 4 competitors could have enough capacity for more than 10-15% of pickup sales to be electric by 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian计划到2023年底将产量扩大到15万辆。福特预计8万。Elon Musk认为特斯拉可以生产20万-30万辆Cybertruck，但Morgan Stanley的分析师估计更像是10万辆。通用汽车可能有能力生产50,000-100,000辆。仅这4辆皮卡的销量就达到了300,000-500,000辆，而美国皮卡的年销量为3,000,000辆。目前，电动汽车在美国的采用率仅为2%（尽管增长迅速），这4个竞争对手可能有足够的产能，到2023年，超过10-15%的皮卡销量是电动的。</blockquote></p><p> Ram, the second best-selling pickup truck brand, will launch an electric truck in 2024.Toyota(NYSE:TM) and Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY)are also planning full-electric trucks. All those entrants to the electric truck market could mean that even if demand grows rapidly, supply might be high enough that Lordstown will have poor margins or never generate enough demand to scale further.</p><p><blockquote>第二畅销皮卡品牌Ram将于2024年推出电动卡车。丰田（NYSE：TM）和日产（OTCPK：NSANY）也在计划全电动卡车。所有这些进入电动卡车市场的人可能意味着，即使需求快速增长，供应也可能足够高，以至于洛兹敦的利润率将很低，或者永远不会产生足够的需求来进一步扩大规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash Burn</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金消耗</b></blockquote></p><p> The other EV players are many times bigger than Lordstown and most importantly can easily access billions of investment capital. Lordstown has a fraction of the capital and will likely need to issue more shares in the future to raise cash.</p><p><blockquote>其他电动汽车公司的规模比洛兹敦大很多倍，最重要的是可以轻松获得数十亿美元的投资资本。洛兹敦拥有一小部分资本，未来可能需要发行更多股票来筹集现金。</blockquote></p><p> If they sell 15,000 cars in 2022 with a 25% gross profit margin, that's ~$200 million in gross profit. Their annual cost base is at least $400M ($110M SG&A + $200M R&D + >$100M CapEx). So, it's realistic to assume they earn $100-200M in gross profit and burn $200-300M in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们在2022年销售15,000辆汽车，毛利率为25%，那么毛利润约为2亿美元。他们的年度成本基础至少为4亿美元（1.1亿美元SG&A+2亿美元R&D+>1亿美元资本支出）。因此，假设他们在2022年获得1-2亿美元的毛利润并烧掉2-3亿美元是现实的。</blockquote></p><p> They have $220M on the balance sheet already and will make $200M from the sale of their facility to Foxconn by 2022. It's possible they go through most of that cash by the end of 2023 and need to raise more capital. There's no certainty they will be close to profitable by 2024, so they might need even more for the years after. At which point, they will still be a fraction of their competitors. The ultimate concern is that they won't be able to reach a profitable scale before their capital runs out.</p><p><blockquote>他们的资产负债表上已经有2.2亿美元，到2022年将通过将工厂出售给富士康获得2亿美元。到2023年底，他们可能会花光大部分现金，需要筹集更多资金。目前还不确定到2024年他们是否会接近盈利，因此在接下来的几年里他们可能需要更多。到那时，他们仍将是竞争对手的一小部分。最终的担忧是，在资本耗尽之前，他们将无法达到盈利规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Betting on Lordstown Motors doesn't seem worth the risk when they have to compete in a difficult industry with rivals that outmatch them in capacity, R&D, and access to capital. Even if they meet production targets without delay, they will lack scale and likely be unprofitable for many years. It seems like a long and unlikely road for this stock to succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当洛兹敦汽车公司必须在一个困难的行业中与在产能、研发和资本获取方面超过他们的竞争对手竞争时，押注洛兹敦汽车公司似乎不值得冒险。即使他们毫不拖延地达到生产目标，他们也将缺乏规模，并且很可能多年都无法盈利。这只股票的成功之路似乎很漫长，而且不太可能。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474021-lordstown-motors-ride-stock-might-fall-further\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474021-lordstown-motors-ride-stock-might-fall-further","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110807624","content_text":"Summary\n\nLordstown Motors is a pre-revenue electric vehicle company. It had controversy in the past but is moving forward with a new CEO.\nCommercial production of the Endurance electric truck is expected to begin in Q3 2022 and scale to ~30,000 trucks in 2023.\nBut that's not nearly enough scale to reach profitability. Their financials suggest they will continue to burn cash for several years.\nDown more than 80% from highs, the stock still looks overvalued.\n\nTasos Katopodis/Getty Images News\nLordstown's Rocky start\nLordstown Motors (RIDE) is a pre-revenue EV company that is launching the Endurance electric truck next year with commercial production expected in Q3. That date was delayed from fall 2020 last year, and they were accused by a short-seller of faking or mispresenting some of the 100,000 pre-orders they claimed.\nSource: Business Insider\nBut that was under the previous CEO and founder Steve Burns who resigned in June. Lordstown brought in former Icahn Automotive CEO Daniel Ninivaggi as the new chief executive. There has only been a one-quarter delay in production since then.\nThey recently entered a partnership with Foxconn, who will buy their production facility for $230 million and act as their contract manufacturer. This solves their near-term cash need but could lower their margin because Foxconn has to make a profit on each car as the manufacturer.\nWith the stock down 80% from all-time highs and a market cap under $1B, you might expect this to be an undervalued stock in the EV sector. But the numbers suggest that even if they hit their production timeline, it won't justify their current valuation.\n\"Bull Case\" for Lordstown\nIt's hard to make early-stage projections, but let's try being generous. Assume there are no more delays, and production is scaled to meet the higher end of wall street revenue estimates, which would be 35,000 cars x $55,000 = $1.9 billion of revenue in 2023. That sounds like a lot compared to their $800M market cap, but they're not in a high-margin business.\nMost automakers have gross margins in the 10-20% range, but trucks usually have a higher margin than other vehicles. So, assume Lordstown can match the 25% gross margin of the best-selling truck, the FordF-150. That also happens to be the approximate gross margin of Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA).\nThat leaves them with $1.9B x 25% = $475 million of gross profit in 2023. The problem is that, just in 2021, they will spend $110M on selling, general and administrative expenses, another $330M on R&D, and $380M in capital expenditures. We could assume CapEx will be lower in the future because they are outsourcing production, but keep in mind that Foxconn will now make a profit on each car they produce, so it still ends up as a cost to Lordstown. Meaning that if CapEx is lower in the future because production is outsourced, the gross margin will likely be lower than 25%.\nThose numbers suggest Lordstown will be burning cash in 2023 even if costs remain flat, which is a generous assumption since they are trending upwards as the company grows.\nData by YCharts\nSo, even if Lordstown meets the production schedule, can make the same margin as the most successful truck brands, and keep costs flat, they might lose $100M or more in 2023, which is still 2 years away.\nThe Competition\nIf they won't be profitable in the next several years, the $800M value of the company must be justified by growth in the years beyond. The production facility now owned by Foxconn is said to have a capacity of 400,000 vehicles, so if they could scale beyond 35,000 vehicles after 2023 and control costs they could eventually be profitable. But once production is no longer an issue, sales and margin will be. They have stiff competition. Most notable is Tesla's Cybertruck.\nSource: electrek.co\nIts production timeline is similar to Lordstown's Endurance - production beginning in 2022 and scaling in 2023. The caveat is that Tesla is a trillion-dollar company that has spent 2x Lordstown's current market cap just in R&D over the past twelve months. That wasn't all on the Cybertruck, but it shows how much bigger the competition is.\nTesla is just the start. Rivian (RIVN) is another $90B market cap company launching an electric truck next year. Ford (F) expects to be producing 80,000 electric F150's in 2023, more than double Lordstown. General Motors (GM) is launching the first electric hummer this month and will bring an electric version of the Chevy Silverado to market in 2023.\nRivian plans to scale production to 150,000 by late 2023. Ford expects 80,000. Elon Musk thinks Tesla can produce 200,000-300,000 Cybertrucks, but analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate more like 100,000. GM will likely be capable of 50,000-100,000. That's 300,000-500,000 units from those 4 alone compared to 3,000,000 in annual US pickup truck sales. Electric car adoption is currently only 2%(though growing fast) in the US, and those 4 competitors could have enough capacity for more than 10-15% of pickup sales to be electric by 2023.\nRam, the second best-selling pickup truck brand, will launch an electric truck in 2024.Toyota(NYSE:TM) and Nissan(OTCPK:NSANY)are also planning full-electric trucks. All those entrants to the electric truck market could mean that even if demand grows rapidly, supply might be high enough that Lordstown will have poor margins or never generate enough demand to scale further.\nCash Burn\nThe other EV players are many times bigger than Lordstown and most importantly can easily access billions of investment capital. Lordstown has a fraction of the capital and will likely need to issue more shares in the future to raise cash.\nIf they sell 15,000 cars in 2022 with a 25% gross profit margin, that's ~$200 million in gross profit. Their annual cost base is at least $400M ($110M SG&A + $200M R&D + >$100M CapEx). So, it's realistic to assume they earn $100-200M in gross profit and burn $200-300M in 2022.\nThey have $220M on the balance sheet already and will make $200M from the sale of their facility to Foxconn by 2022. It's possible they go through most of that cash by the end of 2023 and need to raise more capital. There's no certainty they will be close to profitable by 2024, so they might need even more for the years after. At which point, they will still be a fraction of their competitors. The ultimate concern is that they won't be able to reach a profitable scale before their capital runs out.\nConclusion\nBetting on Lordstown Motors doesn't seem worth the risk when they have to compete in a difficult industry with rivals that outmatch them in capacity, R&D, and access to capital. Even if they meet production targets without delay, they will lack scale and likely be unprofitable for many years. It seems like a long and unlikely road for this stock to succeed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3443,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/602972401"}
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