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2021-12-01

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History says expect strong December for U.S. stocks, despite Omicron and Fed worries<blockquote>尽管奥密克戎和美联储担忧，但历史表明美国股市预计 12 月将表现强劲</blockquote>

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The S&amp;P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.<blockquote>今年，11 月份的涨幅在最后几天脱轨，因为人们担心新的 COVID-19 变种可能会如何影响全球经济增长，以及美联储周二在通胀飙升的情况下采取鹰派立场，导致该指数当月下跌了 0.8%。今年迄今为止，标普500已上涨 21.6%，仍接近历史高位。</blockquote> While those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.<blockquote>虽然这些风险不太可能很快消散，但如果历史表现可以作为指导的话，股市今年仍有可能表现强劲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.<blockquote>Bespoke Investment Group 的数据显示，自 1928 年以来，标准普尔 12 月份有 74% 的时间实现正回报，超过任何其他月份。</blockquote> A weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&amp;P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.<blockquote>如果今年剩余时间的业绩一直强劲，那么 11 月份疲软只会支撑这一趋势：该公司的数据显示，今年是标普500 11 月份第 10 次下跌，但全年上涨超过 10%。据 Bespoke 称，在发生这种情况的前九年中，股市在 12 月份结束时上涨。</blockquote> “Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”<blockquote>“Bespoke 宏观策略师乔治-皮尔克斯（George Pearkes）告诉路透社记者：”势头绝对是一个因素。“如果股市全年都在上涨，而人们都在跑输大盘追逐，他们可能想在年底前加仓。”</blockquote> December's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&amp;P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.<blockquote>LPL Financial 首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 表示，当标普500今年前 11 个月表现强劲时，12 月份的涨幅往往会更加积极。</blockquote> Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&amp;P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.<blockquote>德特里克表示，自 1950 年以来，该指数 12 月份平均上涨 1.7%，而标普500在今年剩余时间里至少上涨了 20%，而 12 月份整体平均上涨了 1.5%。</blockquote> Markets may have their work cut out for them this time around.<blockquote>这一次，市场可能有很多工作要做。</blockquote> The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.<blockquote>被称为华尔街恐惧指标的芝加哥期权交易所波动指数（Cboe Volatility Index）周二升至上周奥密克戎引发的抛售水平，此前美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）告诉国会，面对飙升的通胀，美联储可能会在即将召开的政策会议上讨论加快缩减每月债券购买规模。消息传出后，股市暴跌，而国债收益率上升。</blockquote> “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.<blockquote>“安联投资管理公司（Allianz Investment Management）高级投资策略师查理-里普利（Charlie Ripley）在最近的一份报告中说：”随着政策的潜在变化，市场参与者应该预料到在这个未知领域会出现更多的市场波动。</blockquote> Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&amp;P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.<blockquote>对于科技股来说，对美联储更加鹰派的预期可能是一个不受欢迎的发展，科技股在标普500中的权重过大，帮助该指数今年创下历史新高。</blockquote> Rising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.<blockquote>国债收益率上升（通常遵循美联储更激进政策的预期）会削弱股票对一些投资者的吸引力，并可能对估值较高的股票造成更大的压力，因为它们可能会侵蚀其长期现金流的价值。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.<blockquote>根据 Refinitiv Datastream 的数据，标普500信息技术行业的 12 个月预期市盈率为 27.5 倍，而历史平均水平为 20.8 倍。</blockquote> Investors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.<blockquote>投资者还试图衡量奥密克戎变体的潜在严重性和严重性，高盛制定了四种情景，说明这种压力可能如何蔓延及其对全球增长的潜在影响。</blockquote> A ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.<blockquote>该银行表示，在“下行”情况下，大规模感染浪潮导致封锁，可能会将2022年第一季度的全球经济增长放缓至2%，比目前的预测低2.5个百分点。</blockquote> Many investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者认为股市将保持活跃。</blockquote> “The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”<blockquote>“Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 首席投资组合策略师 Jack Janasiewicz 说：”相当长一段时间以来，市场一直在寻找抛售的借口。”然而，强劲的企业盈利和经济扩张的可能性应该会阻止股市从现在开始大幅下跌。”</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The S&amp;P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.<blockquote>今年，11 月份的涨幅在最后几天脱轨，因为人们担心新的 COVID-19 变种可能会如何影响全球经济增长，以及美联储周二在通胀飙升的情况下采取鹰派立场，导致该指数当月下跌了 0.8%。今年迄今为止，标普500已上涨 21.6%，仍接近历史高位。</blockquote> While those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.<blockquote>虽然这些风险不太可能很快消散，但如果历史表现可以作为指导的话，股市今年仍有可能表现强劲。</blockquote> The S&amp;P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.<blockquote>Bespoke Investment Group 的数据显示，自 1928 年以来，标准普尔 12 月份有 74% 的时间实现正回报，超过任何其他月份。</blockquote> A weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&amp;P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.<blockquote>如果今年剩余时间的业绩一直强劲，那么 11 月份疲软只会支撑这一趋势：该公司的数据显示，今年是标普500 11 月份第 10 次下跌，但全年上涨超过 10%。据 Bespoke 称，在发生这种情况的前九年中，股市在 12 月份结束时上涨。</blockquote> “Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”<blockquote>“Bespoke 宏观策略师乔治-皮尔克斯（George Pearkes）告诉路透社记者：”势头绝对是一个因素。“如果股市全年都在上涨，而人们都在跑输大盘追逐，他们可能想在年底前加仓。”</blockquote> December's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&amp;P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.<blockquote>LPL Financial 首席市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 表示，当标普500今年前 11 个月表现强劲时，12 月份的涨幅往往会更加积极。</blockquote> Since 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&amp;P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.<blockquote>德特里克表示，自 1950 年以来，该指数 12 月份平均上涨 1.7%，而标普500在今年剩余时间里至少上涨了 20%，而 12 月份整体平均上涨了 1.5%。</blockquote> Markets may have their work cut out for them this time around.<blockquote>这一次，市场可能有很多工作要做。</blockquote> The Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.<blockquote>被称为华尔街恐惧指标的芝加哥期权交易所波动指数（Cboe Volatility Index）周二升至上周奥密克戎引发的抛售水平，此前美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）告诉国会，面对飙升的通胀，美联储可能会在即将召开的政策会议上讨论加快缩减每月债券购买规模。消息传出后，股市暴跌，而国债收益率上升。</blockquote> “With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.<blockquote>“安联投资管理公司（Allianz Investment Management）高级投资策略师查理-里普利（Charlie Ripley）在最近的一份报告中说：”随着政策的潜在变化，市场参与者应该预料到在这个未知领域会出现更多的市场波动。</blockquote> Expectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&amp;P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.<blockquote>对于科技股来说，对美联储更加鹰派的预期可能是一个不受欢迎的发展，科技股在标普500中的权重过大，帮助该指数今年创下历史新高。</blockquote> Rising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.<blockquote>国债收益率上升（通常遵循美联储更激进政策的预期）会削弱股票对一些投资者的吸引力，并可能对估值较高的股票造成更大的压力，因为它们可能会侵蚀其长期现金流的价值。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.<blockquote>根据 Refinitiv Datastream 的数据，标普500信息技术行业的 12 个月预期市盈率为 27.5 倍，而历史平均水平为 20.8 倍。</blockquote> Investors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.<blockquote>投资者还试图衡量奥密克戎变体的潜在严重性和严重性，高盛制定了四种情景，说明这种压力可能如何蔓延及其对全球增长的潜在影响。</blockquote> A ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.<blockquote>该银行表示，在“下行”情况下，大规模感染浪潮导致封锁，可能会将2022年第一季度的全球经济增长放缓至2%，比目前的预测低2.5个百分点。</blockquote> Many investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.<blockquote>然而，许多投资者认为股市将保持活跃。</blockquote> “The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”<blockquote>“Natixis Investment Managers Solutions 首席投资组合策略师 Jack Janasiewicz 说：”相当长一段时间以来，市场一直在寻找抛售的借口。”然而，强劲的企业盈利和经济扩张的可能性应该会阻止股市从现在开始大幅下跌。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-history-says-expect-strong-060738639.html\">Reuters</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-history-says-expect-strong-060738639.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158962248","content_text":"(Reuters) - A pileup of risks into year-end has some investors gauging whether December will continue its historical trend of a strong stock performance, even as markets face of worries over the Omicron coronavirus variant and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.\nNovember and December have been the S&P 500's second- and third-best months of the year since 1950, with the index rising an average of 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.\nThis year, November's gains were derailed in its final days, as concerns over how the new COVID-19 variant may impact global growth and Tuesday’s hawkish shift by the Fed in the face of surging inflation left the index with a 0.8% loss for the month. The S&P 500 is up 21.6% so far this year and remains near record highs.\nWhile those risks are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, stocks may still finish the year on a strong note, if historical performance is any guide.\nThe S&P has notched a positive return in December 74% of the time since 1928, more than in any other month, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.\nA weaker November has only bolstered that trend, if performance over the rest of the year has been robust: This year marks the 10th time the S&P 500 was down in November but up more than 10% for the year, the firm's data showed. In the nine prior years when this occurred, stocks finished December with a gain, according to Bespoke.\n“Momentum is definitely a factor,” George Pearkes, macro strategist at Bespoke, told Reuters. “If stocks are going up all year and people are underweight and chasing they may want to add to their positions before year-end.”\nDecember's gains tend to be even more positive when the S&P 500 has a strong first 11 months of the year, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.\nSince 1950, the index has gained an average of 1.7% in December when the S&P 500 has climbed at least 20% in the rest of the year, compared with an average of 1.5% for December overall, according to Detrick.\nMarkets may have their work cut out for them this time around.\nThe Cboe Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, on Tuesday rose to levels seen during last week’s Omicron-fueled selloff after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress the central bank will likely discuss speeding up its taper of monthly bond purchases at its upcoming policy meeting in the face of surging inflation. Stocks tumbled on the news, while yields on Treasury bonds rose.\n“With potential changes in policy on the horizon, market participants should expect additional market volatility in this uncharted territory,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management, in a recent note.\nExpectations of a more hawkish Fed are likely to be an unwelcome development for the technology stocks whose outsize weighting in the S&P 500 helped send the index to record highs this year.\nRising yields on Treasury bonds--which often follow expectations of more aggressive Fed policy -- dull the allure of equities for some investors and can weigh even more on stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.\nThe S&P 500 information technology sector is trading at 27.5 times forward 12-month earnings estimates compared with its historic average of 20.8 times, according to Refinitiv Datastream.\nInvestors are also attempting to gauge the potential seriousness and severity of the Omicron variant, with Goldman Sachs mapping out four scenarios of how the strain may spread and its potential impact on global growth.\nA ”downside” scenario, in which a large wave of infections leads to lockdowns, could slow global growth to 2% in the first quarter of 2022, the bank said, 2.5 percentage points below its current forecast.\nMany investors, however, believe stocks will remain buoyant.\n“The market has been looking for an excuse to sell off for quite some time,” said Jack Janasiewicz, lead portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. ”Yet strong corporate earnings and the likelihood of an expanding economy should keep the stock market from falling significantly from here.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1613,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603063761"}