👍🏻👍🏻👍_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2021-12-02

👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>签证：十年来的买入机会</blockquote>

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603735926,"tweetId":"603735926","gmtCreate":1638451278648,"gmtModify":1638451278773,"author":{"id":3575883708634905,"idStr":"3575883708634905","authorId":3575883708634905,"authorIdStr":"3575883708634905","name":"mQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15c6544cce801bf2702a439bc97d760","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":26,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻</body></html>","text":"👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603735926","repostId":1131426090,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131426090","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638450104,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131426090?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>签证：十年来的买入机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131426090","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVisa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears an","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Visa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.</li> <li>Visa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.</li> <li>Visa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d456d232bef25ffcc8f3da158cf246d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Valentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于对新冠疫情的新担忧和行业表现疲软，Visa 的股价最近几周迅速下跌。</li><li>然而，从长远来看，Visa 将表现良好，因为有多种增长动力将推动 Visa 的每股收益上升。</li><li>与历史正常水平相比，Visa 的交易价格明显折扣，而且最近几周经历的估值大幅下跌，提供了绝佳的买入机会。</li></ul>瓦伦蒂娜·希尔金娜/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Payment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the&nbsp;new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.<blockquote>支付股目前不受青睐，再加上对新冠病毒变种的担忧，导致 Visa (V) 的股价在过去几个月下跌了 20% 以上。这使得 Visa 的价格相对便宜，而且由于该公司仍然是一家优质巨头，未来几年具有引人注目的增长前景，投资者可能希望利用这次大幅抛售，以有吸引力的估值进入这个现金流之王的位置。</blockquote> An Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears<blockquote>不受欢迎的行业受到新的新冠恐惧的打击</blockquote> Payment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported&nbsp;here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.<blockquote>在首次在南非发现的新COVID变种Omicron出现之前，支付股就已经表现不佳，因为Visa、万事达卡（MA）、PayPal（PYPL）、Global Payments（GPN）和许多其他支付股最近几个月表现不佳。在某些情况下，这可以用估值过高来解释，但并非所有这些公司都是如此。其他可以解释这些股票表现疲软的因素包括对加密货币等去中心化金融技术的担忧，尽管我认为这些担忧被夸大了。例如，比特币主要被视为价值储存或升值资产，而出于支付目的在网络上转移的实际金额可以忽略不计——考虑到通过比特币支付缓慢且昂贵的事实，这并不奇怪，正如英国《金融时报》在此报道的那样。由于通过信用卡支付速度更快，消费者无需支付任何费用，而且信用卡除此之外还提供其他优势，如防欺诈、积分奖励等。我不认为加密货币和相关技术会对信用卡公司构成巨大威胁。</blockquote> Payment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in&nbsp;mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.<blockquote>支付公司也受到了有关新COVID变体的消息的打击。一些国家已经实施了旅行限制，这可能会给 Visa 等公司带来阻力，因为国际旅行减少会导致跨境费用降低。然而，在我看来，这只是一个短期的问题。旅行限制不会永远存在，如果它们在整个冬季仍然存在（这不能保证，因为也有报道称新变种只会导致轻微症状），那么Visa及其同行将不会面临长期的逆风。很明显，Visa 的业务将在几年后恢复“正常”，甚至可能在 2022 年，因此最近的抛售似乎是对短期问题的过度反应——让投资者有机会以折扣价购买。</blockquote> Visa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?<blockquote>签证：十年的机遇？</blockquote> Visa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:<blockquote>Visa是一家优质公司：它拥有优秀的基本面，例如自由现金流利润率超过50%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33331e73f44c5ea80990d85a6ae50a3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> For every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is&nbsp;rewarded&nbsp;by a strongAA-credit rating.<blockquote>Visa 每产生一美元收入，就有超过 50 美分最终成为 Visa 资产负债表上的自由现金，使该公司能够通过股息和回购为有吸引力的股东回报支付提供资金。由于 Visa 的技术已经到位，并且该公司应该受益于固定成本偏离和运营杠杆，因此必须预计每增加一美元收入的自由现金流利润率甚至会高于该公司报告的已经非常高的“平均”自由现金流利润率。同样，Visa 也拥有出色的资本回报率，所用资本回报率为 25%，股本回报率为 36%（根据 YCharts），这使其成为多年来的强劲复利。Visa 的资产负债表也非常干净，这得到了强劲的回报AA-信用等级。</blockquote> Strong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:<blockquote>像 Visa 这样的实力雄厚的公司，尤其是如果它们还拥有良好的业绩记录和引人注目的增长潜力，通常会以高估值进行交易。Visa 也是如此，它过去的交易估值远高于平均水平：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1197e9fb5a52bbdf1db5024d2c1b6a01\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.<blockquote>Visa 的 3 年、5 年和 10 年市盈率中位数为 33-36，与同一时间段内的市场交易方式相比，这代表着明显的溢价。然而，Visa 的估值溢价最近几周大幅下降。根据目前对今年预期每股收益的预测，Visa 目前的交易价格不到当前净利润的 28 倍。与该公司过去的估值相比，这意味着约 20% 的折扣。当我们考虑到大盘更贵在过去的几年里，Visa 与其历史估值相比的折扣变得更加显着——在许多其他股票变得更加昂贵的时期内，该股变得便宜得多。我相信，这确实代表了一个非常明显的投资机会。</blockquote> My belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:<blockquote>我相信 Visa 目前的价格很有吸引力，下图也强调了这一点：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e96eaaba164434aa8b2931f8bada939e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.<blockquote>Visa 的 EV 与 EBITDA 倍数（考虑了债务使用情况和资产负债表上持有的现金）已从近期高点下降了 30% 以上。我们唯一一次看到降幅超过30%是在2020年初新冠恐慌的高峰期。这次下跌根本没有持续多久，回想起来，这是一个买入的好时机。除了新冠疫情恐慌之外，Visa 估值类似的大幅下跌，例如我们现在正在经历的情况，在过去十年中从未发生过，我相信，这确实代表了一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote> Growth Drivers Remain In Place<blockquote>增长动力依然存在</blockquote> Visa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at&nbsp;more than 8%&nbsp;for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:<blockquote>我相信，Visa 将能够在未来几年以有吸引力的速度增长其利润。这将通过几个促成因素成为可能。首先，许多国家的消费者目前处于有利地位——刺激支付、2020 年外出消费机会减少以及经济反弹为消费者提供了充足的现金支出。例如，我们从今年消费者支出增长预计将超过 8% 中看到这一点。更多的消费者支出意味着，在其他条件相同的情况下，Visa 和其他信用卡公司将获得更多收入。然而，还有另一个因素将使 Visa 的收入增长速度超过整体消费者支出增长速度。非现金支付占全球支付总额的百分比正在增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01724f12da32d2cc513d422ccdce37da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: statista.com<blockquote>资料来源：statista.com</blockquote> This trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.<blockquote>这种趋势已经存在了很多年，据预测，这种趋势将在未来几年继续存在。随着用户使用的现金越来越少，刷卡的频率越来越高，或者使用苹果支付 (AAPL) 等技术，Visa 等信用卡玩家将从世界各地不断增长的支付池中分一杯羹。尤其是在国际市场，比如广大的亚太地区，有很大的增长潜力。在上图中，我们看到2020年亚太地区的非现金支付总额为2.8亿，约为北美1.85亿的1.5倍——然而，与北美相比，亚太地区的消费者数量远远超过北美的1.5倍。随着时间的推移，越来越多的消费者将开始使用非现金支付方式，这将为 Visa 及其同行带来引人注目的市场机会。作为一家在世界许多国家建立业务关系的全球企业，Visa是抓住这一市场潜力的主要候选者。</blockquote> Visa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.<blockquote>未来几年，Visa 的净利润也应该会受到利润率扩大的推动。Visa 的利润率已经非常高，但由于每个新增客户或每笔额外交易的比例成本非常小，运营杠杆和固定成本偏离应该会在未来几年带来额外的利润率扩张。根据 YCharts，Visa 的毛利率约为 80%，因此可以预计，每增加一美元的收入，大约会有 80 美分流入（税前）利润。</blockquote> Last but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:<blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Visa 的每股收益增长将受益于该公司的快速回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d838430a93ea00931f79457fa8a0b96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Over the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.<blockquote>在过去十年中，Visa 已净额回购了超过 20% 的股票（按总额计算回购金额甚至更高，但该公司确实向员工和管理层发行股票，作为薪酬的一部分）。这意味着每股在整个公司中的份额在过去十年中增长了 27%，为每股价值和公司每股收益的增长提供了相当大的推动。</blockquote> It can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.<blockquote>可以预期，Visa将继续以有意义的速度回购股票。由于该公司强劲的现金流和上述低于平均水平的估值，只要股价保持如此便宜，并且与过去的估值相比，交易价格明显折扣，Visa 加快回购步伐就有意义。</blockquote> Visa is forecasted to earn&nbsp;$11.50&nbsp;per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:<blockquote>Visa 预计 2025 年每股收益为 11.50 美元，尽管实际业绩似乎可能会更好——在过去 20 个季度中，该公司有 19 个季度的每股收益超出了预期，令人难以置信：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2832e20b9821be2900b251e06a4f759f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> When we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.<blockquote>当我们假设 Visa 的表现将继续好于预期时，2025 年的实际每股收益总计可能约为 12 美元，因为 Visa 过去经常超出每股收益预期 5%-10%。如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 23 倍，这相当于四年后的股价为 276 美元，这将允许从当前水平每年获得约 10% 的总回报率，其中包括 0.8% 的股息收益率。</blockquote> If Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.<blockquote>如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 25 倍，与过去的股票估值以及今天的估值相比，这仍然是一个明显的折扣，那么 Visa 的股价可能会在未来四年内攀升至 300 美元，这将导致年回报率为 12%。如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 30 倍，这将比今天的股票估值更贵，但相对于过去的估值倍数仍然不贵，那么 360 美元的股价将转化为总回报率为每年 17%。</blockquote> Even the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.<blockquote>即使是这些场景中最保守的，Visa每年的回报率约为10%，同时经历了相当大的多重压缩，总体而言仍然是一个相当不错的场景。因此，我认为，以当前价格计算，Visa 是一项有吸引力的投资——特别是当我们考虑到上述历史估值范围的折扣以及 Visa 最近经历的估值急剧下降时。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Visa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.<blockquote>Visa是一家伟大的公司，但伟大的公司往往价格昂贵。这里曾经也是如此，但最近几个月，Visa变得便宜多了。目前，投资者可以以明显低于正常估值范围的价格购买股票，而 Visa 在此次抛售期间经历的估值下降绝对是一个异常值——与最初的新冠恐慌期间发生的情况相当。我相信 Visa 在这里是一项有吸引力的投资，投资者可以合理地预期未来几年每年至少 10% 的总回报率——根据未来几年的估值，回报率也可能更高。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>签证：十年来的买入机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>签证：十年来的买入机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-02 21:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Visa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.</li> <li>Visa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.</li> <li>Visa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d456d232bef25ffcc8f3da158cf246d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Valentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于对新冠疫情的新担忧和行业表现疲软，Visa 的股价最近几周迅速下跌。</li><li>然而，从长远来看，Visa 将表现良好，因为有多种增长动力将推动 Visa 的每股收益上升。</li><li>与历史正常水平相比，Visa 的交易价格明显折扣，而且最近几周经历的估值大幅下跌，提供了绝佳的买入机会。</li></ul>瓦伦蒂娜·希尔金娜/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Payment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the&nbsp;new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.<blockquote>支付股目前不受青睐，再加上对新冠病毒变种的担忧，导致 Visa (V) 的股价在过去几个月下跌了 20% 以上。这使得 Visa 的价格相对便宜，而且由于该公司仍然是一家优质巨头，未来几年具有引人注目的增长前景，投资者可能希望利用这次大幅抛售，以有吸引力的估值进入这个现金流之王的位置。</blockquote> An Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears<blockquote>不受欢迎的行业受到新的新冠恐惧的打击</blockquote> Payment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported&nbsp;here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.<blockquote>在首次在南非发现的新COVID变种Omicron出现之前，支付股就已经表现不佳，因为Visa、万事达卡（MA）、PayPal（PYPL）、Global Payments（GPN）和许多其他支付股最近几个月表现不佳。在某些情况下，这可以用估值过高来解释，但并非所有这些公司都是如此。其他可以解释这些股票表现疲软的因素包括对加密货币等去中心化金融技术的担忧，尽管我认为这些担忧被夸大了。例如，比特币主要被视为价值储存或升值资产，而出于支付目的在网络上转移的实际金额可以忽略不计——考虑到通过比特币支付缓慢且昂贵的事实，这并不奇怪，正如英国《金融时报》在此报道的那样。由于通过信用卡支付速度更快，消费者无需支付任何费用，而且信用卡除此之外还提供其他优势，如防欺诈、积分奖励等。我不认为加密货币和相关技术会对信用卡公司构成巨大威胁。</blockquote> Payment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in&nbsp;mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.<blockquote>支付公司也受到了有关新COVID变体的消息的打击。一些国家已经实施了旅行限制，这可能会给 Visa 等公司带来阻力，因为国际旅行减少会导致跨境费用降低。然而，在我看来，这只是一个短期的问题。旅行限制不会永远存在，如果它们在整个冬季仍然存在（这不能保证，因为也有报道称新变种只会导致轻微症状），那么Visa及其同行将不会面临长期的逆风。很明显，Visa 的业务将在几年后恢复“正常”，甚至可能在 2022 年，因此最近的抛售似乎是对短期问题的过度反应——让投资者有机会以折扣价购买。</blockquote> Visa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?<blockquote>签证：十年的机遇？</blockquote> Visa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:<blockquote>Visa是一家优质公司：它拥有优秀的基本面，例如自由现金流利润率超过50%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33331e73f44c5ea80990d85a6ae50a3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> For every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is&nbsp;rewarded&nbsp;by a strongAA-credit rating.<blockquote>Visa 每产生一美元收入，就有超过 50 美分最终成为 Visa 资产负债表上的自由现金，使该公司能够通过股息和回购为有吸引力的股东回报支付提供资金。由于 Visa 的技术已经到位，并且该公司应该受益于固定成本偏离和运营杠杆，因此必须预计每增加一美元收入的自由现金流利润率甚至会高于该公司报告的已经非常高的“平均”自由现金流利润率。同样，Visa 也拥有出色的资本回报率，所用资本回报率为 25%，股本回报率为 36%（根据 YCharts），这使其成为多年来的强劲复利。Visa 的资产负债表也非常干净，这得到了强劲的回报AA-信用等级。</blockquote> Strong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:<blockquote>像 Visa 这样的实力雄厚的公司，尤其是如果它们还拥有良好的业绩记录和引人注目的增长潜力，通常会以高估值进行交易。Visa 也是如此，它过去的交易估值远高于平均水平：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1197e9fb5a52bbdf1db5024d2c1b6a01\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.<blockquote>Visa 的 3 年、5 年和 10 年市盈率中位数为 33-36，与同一时间段内的市场交易方式相比，这代表着明显的溢价。然而，Visa 的估值溢价最近几周大幅下降。根据目前对今年预期每股收益的预测，Visa 目前的交易价格不到当前净利润的 28 倍。与该公司过去的估值相比，这意味着约 20% 的折扣。当我们考虑到大盘更贵在过去的几年里，Visa 与其历史估值相比的折扣变得更加显着——在许多其他股票变得更加昂贵的时期内，该股变得便宜得多。我相信，这确实代表了一个非常明显的投资机会。</blockquote> My belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:<blockquote>我相信 Visa 目前的价格很有吸引力，下图也强调了这一点：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e96eaaba164434aa8b2931f8bada939e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.<blockquote>Visa 的 EV 与 EBITDA 倍数（考虑了债务使用情况和资产负债表上持有的现金）已从近期高点下降了 30% 以上。我们唯一一次看到降幅超过30%是在2020年初新冠恐慌的高峰期。这次下跌根本没有持续多久，回想起来，这是一个买入的好时机。除了新冠疫情恐慌之外，Visa 估值类似的大幅下跌，例如我们现在正在经历的情况，在过去十年中从未发生过，我相信，这确实代表了一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote> Growth Drivers Remain In Place<blockquote>增长动力依然存在</blockquote> Visa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at&nbsp;more than 8%&nbsp;for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:<blockquote>我相信，Visa 将能够在未来几年以有吸引力的速度增长其利润。这将通过几个促成因素成为可能。首先，许多国家的消费者目前处于有利地位——刺激支付、2020 年外出消费机会减少以及经济反弹为消费者提供了充足的现金支出。例如，我们从今年消费者支出增长预计将超过 8% 中看到这一点。更多的消费者支出意味着，在其他条件相同的情况下，Visa 和其他信用卡公司将获得更多收入。然而，还有另一个因素将使 Visa 的收入增长速度超过整体消费者支出增长速度。非现金支付占全球支付总额的百分比正在增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01724f12da32d2cc513d422ccdce37da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: statista.com<blockquote>资料来源：statista.com</blockquote> This trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.<blockquote>这种趋势已经存在了很多年，据预测，这种趋势将在未来几年继续存在。随着用户使用的现金越来越少，刷卡的频率越来越高，或者使用苹果支付 (AAPL) 等技术，Visa 等信用卡玩家将从世界各地不断增长的支付池中分一杯羹。尤其是在国际市场，比如广大的亚太地区，有很大的增长潜力。在上图中，我们看到2020年亚太地区的非现金支付总额为2.8亿，约为北美1.85亿的1.5倍——然而，与北美相比，亚太地区的消费者数量远远超过北美的1.5倍。随着时间的推移，越来越多的消费者将开始使用非现金支付方式，这将为 Visa 及其同行带来引人注目的市场机会。作为一家在世界许多国家建立业务关系的全球企业，Visa是抓住这一市场潜力的主要候选者。</blockquote> Visa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.<blockquote>未来几年，Visa 的净利润也应该会受到利润率扩大的推动。Visa 的利润率已经非常高，但由于每个新增客户或每笔额外交易的比例成本非常小，运营杠杆和固定成本偏离应该会在未来几年带来额外的利润率扩张。根据 YCharts，Visa 的毛利率约为 80%，因此可以预计，每增加一美元的收入，大约会有 80 美分流入（税前）利润。</blockquote> Last but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:<blockquote>最后但同样重要的是，Visa 的每股收益增长将受益于该公司的快速回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d838430a93ea00931f79457fa8a0b96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Over the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.<blockquote>在过去十年中，Visa 已净额回购了超过 20% 的股票（按总额计算回购金额甚至更高，但该公司确实向员工和管理层发行股票，作为薪酬的一部分）。这意味着每股在整个公司中的份额在过去十年中增长了 27%，为每股价值和公司每股收益的增长提供了相当大的推动。</blockquote> It can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.<blockquote>可以预期，Visa将继续以有意义的速度回购股票。由于该公司强劲的现金流和上述低于平均水平的估值，只要股价保持如此便宜，并且与过去的估值相比，交易价格明显折扣，Visa 加快回购步伐就有意义。</blockquote> Visa is forecasted to earn&nbsp;$11.50&nbsp;per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:<blockquote>Visa 预计 2025 年每股收益为 11.50 美元，尽管实际业绩似乎可能会更好——在过去 20 个季度中，该公司有 19 个季度的每股收益超出了预期，令人难以置信：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2832e20b9821be2900b251e06a4f759f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>来源：Seeking Alpha</blockquote> When we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.<blockquote>当我们假设 Visa 的表现将继续好于预期时，2025 年的实际每股收益总计可能约为 12 美元，因为 Visa 过去经常超出每股收益预期 5%-10%。如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 23 倍，这相当于四年后的股价为 276 美元，这将允许从当前水平每年获得约 10% 的总回报率，其中包括 0.8% 的股息收益率。</blockquote> If Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.<blockquote>如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 25 倍，与过去的股票估值以及今天的估值相比，这仍然是一个明显的折扣，那么 Visa 的股价可能会在未来四年内攀升至 300 美元，这将导致年回报率为 12%。如果 Visa 在 2025 年的净利润为 30 倍，这将比今天的股票估值更贵，但相对于过去的估值倍数仍然不贵，那么 360 美元的股价将转化为总回报率为每年 17%。</blockquote> Even the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.<blockquote>即使是这些场景中最保守的，Visa每年的回报率约为10%，同时经历了相当大的多重压缩，总体而言仍然是一个相当不错的场景。因此，我认为，以当前价格计算，Visa 是一项有吸引力的投资——特别是当我们考虑到上述历史估值范围的折扣以及 Visa 最近经历的估值急剧下降时。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Visa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.<blockquote>Visa是一家伟大的公司，但伟大的公司往往价格昂贵。这里曾经也是如此，但最近几个月，Visa变得便宜多了。目前，投资者可以以明显低于正常估值范围的价格购买股票，而 Visa 在此次抛售期间经历的估值下降绝对是一个异常值——与最初的新冠恐慌期间发生的情况相当。我相信 Visa 在这里是一项有吸引力的投资，投资者可以合理地预期未来几年每年至少 10% 的总回报率——根据未来几年的估值，回报率也可能更高。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472650-visa-buying-opportunity-of-the-decade\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472650-visa-buying-opportunity-of-the-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131426090","content_text":"Summary\n\nVisa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.\nVisa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.\nVisa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.\n\nValentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPayment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.\nAn Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears\nPayment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.\nPayment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.\nVisa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?\nVisa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:\n\nFor every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is rewarded by a strongAA-credit rating.\nStrong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:\n\nVisa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.\nMy belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:\n\nVisa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.\nGrowth Drivers Remain In Place\nVisa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at more than 8% for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:\nSource: statista.com\nThis trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.\nVisa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.\nLast but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:\n\nOver the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.\nIt can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.\nVisa is forecasted to earn $11.50 per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWhen we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.\nIf Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.\nEven the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.\nTakeaway\nVisa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603735926"}