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2021-12-02

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Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>Visa：十年来的购买机会</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":603735926,"tweetId":"603735926","gmtCreate":1638451278648,"gmtModify":1638451278773,"author":{"id":3575883708634905,"idStr":"3575883708634905","authorId":3575883708634905,"authorIdStr":"3575883708634905","name":"mQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f15c6544cce801bf2702a439bc97d760","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":24,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻</body></html>","text":"👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603735926","repostId":1131426090,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131426090","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638450104,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131426090?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>Visa：十年来的购买机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131426090","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVisa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears an","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Visa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.</li> <li>Visa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.</li> <li>Visa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d456d232bef25ffcc8f3da158cf246d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Valentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于对新冠疫情的担忧和行业表现疲软，Visa的股价最近几周迅速下跌。</li><li>然而，从长远来看，Visa将表现良好，因为有多种增长动力将推动Visa的每股收益上升。</li><li>与历史正常水平相比，Visa的交易价格明显折扣，而且最近几周经历的估值大幅下跌，提供了绝佳的买入机会。</li></ul>Valentina Shilkina/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Payment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the&nbsp;new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.<blockquote>支付股票目前失宠，再加上对新冠病毒变种的担忧，导致Visa(V)的股价在过去几个月下跌了20%以上。这使得Visa的价格相对便宜，而且由于该公司仍然是一家优质巨头，在未来几年具有引人注目的增长前景，投资者可能希望利用这次大幅抛售，以有吸引力的估值进入这家现金流之王的头寸。</blockquote> An Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears<blockquote>一个失宠的行业受到新冠疫情担忧的打击</blockquote> Payment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported&nbsp;here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.<blockquote>在首次在南非发现的新的COVID变种Omicron出现之前，支付股票的表现就已经不佳，因为Visa、万事达卡(MA)、PayPal(PYPL)、Global Payments(GPN)和许多其他支付股票都表现不佳近几个月来表现不佳市场。在某些情况下，这可以用估值过高来解释，但并非所有这些公司都是如此。其他可以解释这些股票表现疲软的因素包括对加密货币等去中心化金融技术的担忧，尽管我认为这些担忧被夸大了。例如，比特币主要被视为一种价值储存或增值资产，而出于支付目的在网络上转移的实际金额可以忽略不计——考虑到通过比特币进行支付缓慢且昂贵的事实，这并不太令人惊讶。正如英国《金融时报》在此报道的那样。因为通过信用卡支付更快，对消费者来说是免费的，而且信用卡还提供了其他优势，如欺诈保护、积分奖励等。我不认为加密货币和相关技术会对信用卡公司构成巨大威胁。</blockquote> Payment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in&nbsp;mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.<blockquote>支付公司也受到了有关新COVID变体的消息的打击。一些国家已经实施了旅行限制，这对Visa等公司来说可能是一个阻力，因为国际旅行减少会导致跨境费用降低。然而，在我看来，这只是一个短期问题。旅行限制不会永远存在，如果它们在冬季仍然存在（这并不能保证，因为也有报道称新变种只会导致轻微症状），那么Visa及其同行将不会面临长期的逆风。很明显，Visa的业务将在几年内恢复“正常”，甚至可能在2022年，因此最近的抛售似乎是对短期问题的过度反应——给投资者带来了机会以折扣价购买。</blockquote> Visa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?<blockquote>Visa：十年的机遇？</blockquote> Visa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:<blockquote>Visa是一家优质公司：它拥有出色的基本面，例如超过50%的自由现金流利润率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33331e73f44c5ea80990d85a6ae50a3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> For every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is&nbsp;rewarded&nbsp;by a strongAA-credit rating.<blockquote>Visa每产生一美元收入，就有超过50美分最终成为Visa资产负债表上的自由现金，使该公司能够通过股息和回购为有吸引力的股东回报支付提供资金。由于Visa的技术已经到位，并且该公司应该从固定成本偏离和运营杠杆中受益，因此可以预期，每增加一美元收入的FCF利润率甚至高于该公司报告的已经非常高的“平均”FCF利润率。同样，Visa也拥有出色的资本回报率，已动用资本回报率为25%，股本回报率为36%（根据YCharts），使其成为多年来的强劲复利。Visa的资产负债表也非常干净，这得到了强劲的回报AA-信用评级。</blockquote> Strong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:<blockquote>像Visa这样强大的公司，尤其是如果它们也拥有良好的业绩记录和引人注目的增长潜力，通常会以高估值进行交易。Visa也是如此，该公司过去的估值远高于平均水平：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1197e9fb5a52bbdf1db5024d2c1b6a01\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.<blockquote>Visa的3年、5年和10年市盈率中位数为33-36，与市场过去在同一时间范围内的交易方式相比，这代表着明显的溢价。然而，Visa的估值溢价最近几周大幅下降。根据目前对今年预期每股收益的预测，Visa今天的交易价格不到当前净利润的28倍。与该公司过去的估值相比，这意味着约20%的折扣。当我们考虑到大盘变得更贵在过去的几年里，Visa与其历史估值相比的折扣变得更加显着——在许多其他股票变得更加昂贵的时期内，该股变得更加便宜。我认为，这确实代表了一个非常明显的投资机会。</blockquote> My belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:<blockquote>下图也强调了我的信念，即Visa如今的价格具有吸引力：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e96eaaba164434aa8b2931f8bada939e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.<blockquote>Visa的EV与EBITDA倍数（占债务使用情况和资产负债表上持有的现金）较近期高点下降了30%以上。我们唯一一次看到跌幅超过30%是在2020年初COVID恐慌的高峰期。这种下跌根本没有持续很长时间，回想起来，这是一个买入的好时机。除了新冠恐慌之外，Visa估值类似的大幅下跌，就像我们现在正在经历的那样，在过去十年中从未发生过，而且我相信，这确实代表了一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote> Growth Drivers Remain In Place<blockquote>增长动力依然存在</blockquote> Visa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at&nbsp;more than 8%&nbsp;for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:<blockquote>我相信，Visa将能够在未来几年以有吸引力的速度增长其利润。这将通过几个促成因素成为可能。首先，许多国家的消费者目前处于强势地位——刺激付款、2020年外出消费的机会减少以及经济反弹导致消费者有充足的现金可供消费。例如，我们在今年消费者支出增长预计将超过8%中看到了这一点。更多的消费者支出意味着，在其他条件相同的情况下，Visa和其他信用卡公司将获得更大的收入。然而，还有另一个因素将使Visa的收入增长速度快于整体消费者支出增长率。非现金支付占全球支付总额的百分比正在增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01724f12da32d2cc513d422ccdce37da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: statista.com<blockquote>资料来源：statista.com</blockquote> This trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.<blockquote>这种趋势已经存在很多年了，预测认为这种趋势在未来几年仍将存在。随着用户使用现金减少、刷卡次数增加，或者使用苹果支付(AAPL)等技术，Visa等信用卡公司将从全球不断增长的支付池中分得一杯羹。尤其是在国际市场，比如广阔的亚太地区，增长潜力很大。在上图中，我们看到2020年亚太地区的非现金支付总额为2.8亿，约为北美1.85亿的1.5倍——亚太地区的消费者数量是北美的1.5倍以上。然而，与北美相比，太平洋地区。多年来，越来越多的消费者将开始使用非现金支付选项，这将为Visa及其同行带来引人注目的市场机会。作为一家在全球许多国家建立了业务关系的全球性企业，Visa是抓住这一市场潜力的主要候选者。</blockquote> Visa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.<blockquote>未来几年，Visa的净利润也应该会受到利润率扩张的推动。Visa的利润率已经非常高，但由于每个增加的客户或每笔额外交易的比例成本非常小，因此运营杠杆和固定成本偏差应该会在未来几年导致利润率进一步扩张。根据YCharts的数据，Visa的毛利率约为80%，因此预计每增加1美元的收入将有约80美分流入（税前）底线。</blockquote> Last but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:<blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Visa的每股收益增长将受益于公司的快速回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d838430a93ea00931f79457fa8a0b96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Over the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.<blockquote>在过去十年中，Visa净回购了超过20%的股票（回购总额甚至更高，但该公司确实向员工和管理层发行股票作为薪酬的一部分）。这意味着每股个股在整个公司中的份额在过去十年中增长了27%，为每股价值和公司每股收益的增长提供了相当大的推动。</blockquote> It can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.<blockquote>可以预计，Visa将继续以有意义的速度回购股票。由于该公司强劲的现金流和上述低于平均水平的估值，只要股价保持如此便宜，并且与过去的估值相比有明显的折扣，Visa加快回购步伐就有意义。</blockquote> Visa is forecasted to earn&nbsp;$11.50&nbsp;per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:<blockquote>Visa预计2025年每股收益为11.50美元，尽管实际业绩似乎可能会更好——该公司在过去20个季度中有19个季度超出了每股收益预期，令人难以置信：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2832e20b9821be2900b251e06a4f759f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> When we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.<blockquote>当我们假设Visa的表现将继续好于预期时，2025年的实际每股收益总额可能约为12美元，因为Visa过去的每股收益经常超出预期5%-10%。如果Visa 2025年的净利润为23倍，那么四年后的股价将达到276美元，这将使当前水平的总回报率达到每年约10%，其中包括0.8%的股息收益率。</blockquote> If Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.<blockquote>如果Visa 2025年的净利润为25倍，与过去的股票估值以及今天的估值相比，这仍然存在明显的折扣，那么Visa的股价可能会在未来四年内攀升至300美元，年回报率为12%。如果Visa 2025年的净利润为30倍，这将比目前的股票估值更贵，但相对于过去的估值倍数仍然便宜，那么360美元的股价将转化为17%的总回报率一年。</blockquote> Even the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.<blockquote>即使是最保守的情况（Visa的年回报率约为10%，同时经历了相当大的倍数压缩），总体而言仍然是一个相当不错的情况。因此，我认为，以当前价格计算，Visa是一项有吸引力的投资——特别是当我们考虑到上述相对于历史估值范围的折扣以及Visa最近经历的估值急剧下降时。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Visa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.<blockquote>Visa是一家伟大的公司，但伟大的公司往往价格昂贵。这里以前也是这样，但最近几个月，Visa变得便宜了很多。目前，投资者可以以明显低于正常估值范围的价格购买股票，而Visa在这次抛售中经历的估值下降绝对是一个异常值——与最初的新冠恐慌期间发生的情况相当。我相信Visa在这里是一项有吸引力的投资，投资者可以合理地预期未来几年每年的总回报率至少为10%——根据未来几年的估值，回报率也可能更高。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Visa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>Visa：十年来的购买机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVisa: Buying Opportunity Of The Decade<blockquote>Visa：十年来的购买机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-02 21:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Visa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.</li> <li>Visa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.</li> <li>Visa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d456d232bef25ffcc8f3da158cf246d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Valentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>由于对新冠疫情的担忧和行业表现疲软，Visa的股价最近几周迅速下跌。</li><li>然而，从长远来看，Visa将表现良好，因为有多种增长动力将推动Visa的每股收益上升。</li><li>与历史正常水平相比，Visa的交易价格明显折扣，而且最近几周经历的估值大幅下跌，提供了绝佳的买入机会。</li></ul>Valentina Shilkina/iStock来自Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Payment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the&nbsp;new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.<blockquote>支付股票目前失宠，再加上对新冠病毒变种的担忧，导致Visa(V)的股价在过去几个月下跌了20%以上。这使得Visa的价格相对便宜，而且由于该公司仍然是一家优质巨头，在未来几年具有引人注目的增长前景，投资者可能希望利用这次大幅抛售，以有吸引力的估值进入这家现金流之王的头寸。</blockquote> An Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears<blockquote>一个失宠的行业受到新冠疫情担忧的打击</blockquote> Payment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported&nbsp;here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.<blockquote>在首次在南非发现的新的COVID变种Omicron出现之前，支付股票的表现就已经不佳，因为Visa、万事达卡(MA)、PayPal(PYPL)、Global Payments(GPN)和许多其他支付股票都表现不佳近几个月来表现不佳市场。在某些情况下，这可以用估值过高来解释，但并非所有这些公司都是如此。其他可以解释这些股票表现疲软的因素包括对加密货币等去中心化金融技术的担忧，尽管我认为这些担忧被夸大了。例如，比特币主要被视为一种价值储存或增值资产，而出于支付目的在网络上转移的实际金额可以忽略不计——考虑到通过比特币进行支付缓慢且昂贵的事实，这并不太令人惊讶。正如英国《金融时报》在此报道的那样。因为通过信用卡支付更快，对消费者来说是免费的，而且信用卡还提供了其他优势，如欺诈保护、积分奖励等。我不认为加密货币和相关技术会对信用卡公司构成巨大威胁。</blockquote> Payment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in&nbsp;mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.<blockquote>支付公司也受到了有关新COVID变体的消息的打击。一些国家已经实施了旅行限制，这对Visa等公司来说可能是一个阻力，因为国际旅行减少会导致跨境费用降低。然而，在我看来，这只是一个短期问题。旅行限制不会永远存在，如果它们在冬季仍然存在（这并不能保证，因为也有报道称新变种只会导致轻微症状），那么Visa及其同行将不会面临长期的逆风。很明显，Visa的业务将在几年内恢复“正常”，甚至可能在2022年，因此最近的抛售似乎是对短期问题的过度反应——给投资者带来了机会以折扣价购买。</blockquote> Visa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?<blockquote>Visa：十年的机遇？</blockquote> Visa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:<blockquote>Visa是一家优质公司：它拥有出色的基本面，例如超过50%的自由现金流利润率：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33331e73f44c5ea80990d85a6ae50a3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> For every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is&nbsp;rewarded&nbsp;by a strongAA-credit rating.<blockquote>Visa每产生一美元收入，就有超过50美分最终成为Visa资产负债表上的自由现金，使该公司能够通过股息和回购为有吸引力的股东回报支付提供资金。由于Visa的技术已经到位，并且该公司应该从固定成本偏离和运营杠杆中受益，因此可以预期，每增加一美元收入的FCF利润率甚至高于该公司报告的已经非常高的“平均”FCF利润率。同样，Visa也拥有出色的资本回报率，已动用资本回报率为25%，股本回报率为36%（根据YCharts），使其成为多年来的强劲复利。Visa的资产负债表也非常干净，这得到了强劲的回报AA-信用评级。</blockquote> Strong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:<blockquote>像Visa这样强大的公司，尤其是如果它们也拥有良好的业绩记录和引人注目的增长潜力，通常会以高估值进行交易。Visa也是如此，该公司过去的估值远高于平均水平：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1197e9fb5a52bbdf1db5024d2c1b6a01\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.<blockquote>Visa的3年、5年和10年市盈率中位数为33-36，与市场过去在同一时间范围内的交易方式相比，这代表着明显的溢价。然而，Visa的估值溢价最近几周大幅下降。根据目前对今年预期每股收益的预测，Visa今天的交易价格不到当前净利润的28倍。与该公司过去的估值相比，这意味着约20%的折扣。当我们考虑到大盘变得更贵在过去的几年里，Visa与其历史估值相比的折扣变得更加显着——在许多其他股票变得更加昂贵的时期内，该股变得更加便宜。我认为，这确实代表了一个非常明显的投资机会。</blockquote> My belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:<blockquote>下图也强调了我的信念，即Visa如今的价格具有吸引力：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e96eaaba164434aa8b2931f8bada939e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Visa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.<blockquote>Visa的EV与EBITDA倍数（占债务使用情况和资产负债表上持有的现金）较近期高点下降了30%以上。我们唯一一次看到跌幅超过30%是在2020年初COVID恐慌的高峰期。这种下跌根本没有持续很长时间，回想起来，这是一个买入的好时机。除了新冠恐慌之外，Visa估值类似的大幅下跌，就像我们现在正在经历的那样，在过去十年中从未发生过，而且我相信，这确实代表了一个有吸引力的买入机会。</blockquote> Growth Drivers Remain In Place<blockquote>增长动力依然存在</blockquote> Visa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at&nbsp;more than 8%&nbsp;for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:<blockquote>我相信，Visa将能够在未来几年以有吸引力的速度增长其利润。这将通过几个促成因素成为可能。首先，许多国家的消费者目前处于强势地位——刺激付款、2020年外出消费的机会减少以及经济反弹导致消费者有充足的现金可供消费。例如，我们在今年消费者支出增长预计将超过8%中看到了这一点。更多的消费者支出意味着，在其他条件相同的情况下，Visa和其他信用卡公司将获得更大的收入。然而，还有另一个因素将使Visa的收入增长速度快于整体消费者支出增长率。非现金支付占全球支付总额的百分比正在增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01724f12da32d2cc513d422ccdce37da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: statista.com<blockquote>资料来源：statista.com</blockquote> This trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.<blockquote>这种趋势已经存在很多年了，预测认为这种趋势在未来几年仍将存在。随着用户使用现金减少、刷卡次数增加，或者使用苹果支付(AAPL)等技术，Visa等信用卡公司将从全球不断增长的支付池中分得一杯羹。尤其是在国际市场，比如广阔的亚太地区，增长潜力很大。在上图中，我们看到2020年亚太地区的非现金支付总额为2.8亿，约为北美1.85亿的1.5倍——亚太地区的消费者数量是北美的1.5倍以上。然而，与北美相比，太平洋地区。多年来，越来越多的消费者将开始使用非现金支付选项，这将为Visa及其同行带来引人注目的市场机会。作为一家在全球许多国家建立了业务关系的全球性企业，Visa是抓住这一市场潜力的主要候选者。</blockquote> Visa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.<blockquote>未来几年，Visa的净利润也应该会受到利润率扩张的推动。Visa的利润率已经非常高，但由于每个增加的客户或每笔额外交易的比例成本非常小，因此运营杠杆和固定成本偏差应该会在未来几年导致利润率进一步扩张。根据YCharts的数据，Visa的毛利率约为80%，因此预计每增加1美元的收入将有约80美分流入（税前）底线。</blockquote> Last but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:<blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Visa的每股收益增长将受益于公司的快速回购：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d838430a93ea00931f79457fa8a0b96\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> Over the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.<blockquote>在过去十年中，Visa净回购了超过20%的股票（回购总额甚至更高，但该公司确实向员工和管理层发行股票作为薪酬的一部分）。这意味着每股个股在整个公司中的份额在过去十年中增长了27%，为每股价值和公司每股收益的增长提供了相当大的推动。</blockquote> It can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.<blockquote>可以预计，Visa将继续以有意义的速度回购股票。由于该公司强劲的现金流和上述低于平均水平的估值，只要股价保持如此便宜，并且与过去的估值相比有明显的折扣，Visa加快回购步伐就有意义。</blockquote> Visa is forecasted to earn&nbsp;$11.50&nbsp;per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:<blockquote>Visa预计2025年每股收益为11.50美元，尽管实际业绩似乎可能会更好——该公司在过去20个季度中有19个季度超出了每股收益预期，令人难以置信：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2832e20b9821be2900b251e06a4f759f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Seeking Alpha<blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote> When we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.<blockquote>当我们假设Visa的表现将继续好于预期时，2025年的实际每股收益总额可能约为12美元，因为Visa过去的每股收益经常超出预期5%-10%。如果Visa 2025年的净利润为23倍，那么四年后的股价将达到276美元，这将使当前水平的总回报率达到每年约10%，其中包括0.8%的股息收益率。</blockquote> If Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.<blockquote>如果Visa 2025年的净利润为25倍，与过去的股票估值以及今天的估值相比，这仍然存在明显的折扣，那么Visa的股价可能会在未来四年内攀升至300美元，年回报率为12%。如果Visa 2025年的净利润为30倍，这将比目前的股票估值更贵，但相对于过去的估值倍数仍然便宜，那么360美元的股价将转化为17%的总回报率一年。</blockquote> Even the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.<blockquote>即使是最保守的情况（Visa的年回报率约为10%，同时经历了相当大的倍数压缩），总体而言仍然是一个相当不错的情况。因此，我认为，以当前价格计算，Visa是一项有吸引力的投资——特别是当我们考虑到上述相对于历史估值范围的折扣以及Visa最近经历的估值急剧下降时。</blockquote> Takeaway<blockquote>外卖</blockquote> Visa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.<blockquote>Visa是一家伟大的公司，但伟大的公司往往价格昂贵。这里以前也是这样，但最近几个月，Visa变得便宜了很多。目前，投资者可以以明显低于正常估值范围的价格购买股票，而Visa在这次抛售中经历的估值下降绝对是一个异常值——与最初的新冠恐慌期间发生的情况相当。我相信Visa在这里是一项有吸引力的投资，投资者可以合理地预期未来几年每年的总回报率至少为10%——根据未来几年的估值，回报率也可能更高。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472650-visa-buying-opportunity-of-the-decade\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"V":"Visa"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4472650-visa-buying-opportunity-of-the-decade","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131426090","content_text":"Summary\n\nVisa has seen its shares decline rapidly in recent weeks, on the back of new COVID fears and weak sector performance.\nVisa will do well in the long run, however, as there are multiple growth drivers that will propel Visa's earnings per share upwards.\nVisa trades at a clear discount compared to the historic norm, and the valuation decline it has experienced in recent weeks is massive, providing a great buying opportunity.\n\nValentina Shilkina/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPayment stocks are out of favor right now, and that, combined with worries about the new COVID variant, has sent shares of Visa (V) down by well above 20% over the last couple of months. This has made Visa comparatively cheap, and since the company remains a quality giant with a compelling growth outlook over the coming years, investors may want to use this steep selloff to enter a position in this cash flow king at an attractive valuation.\nAn Out-Of-Favor Industry Gets Hit By New COVID Fears\nPayment stocks have already underperformed prior to the emergence of the new COVID variant Omicron that was first found in South Africa, as Visa, Mastercard (MA), PayPal (PYPL), Global Payments (GPN), and many more payment stocks have underperformed the market in recent months. In some cases, this can be explained by stretched valuations, but that was not the case with all of these companies. Other factors that could explain the weak performance of these stocks include worries about decentralized finance technologies such as cryptocurrencies, although I believe that these fears are way overblown. Bitcoin, for example, is primarily seen as a store of value or appreciating asset, whereas the actual amount of money that is transferred on the network for payment purposes is negligible -- not too surprising, considering the fact that payments via Bitcoin are slow and expensive, as reported here by the Financial Times. Since payments via credit cards are way faster, come at no cost for the consumer, and since credit cards offer other advantages on top of that, such as fraud protection, points rewards, etc. I do not believe that cryptocurrencies and related technologies will be a huge threat to credit card companies.\nPayment companies also got hit by news about the new COVID variant. Some countries have put travel restrictions in place, which will presumably be a headwind for companies such as Visa, as less international travel leads to lower cross-border fees. It seems to me, however, that this will be a short-term issue only. Travel restrictions will not be in place forever, and in case they remain in place through the winter months (which is not guaranteed, as there are also reports that the new variant only results in mild symptoms), then Visa and its peers will not face a long-lasting headwind. It seems pretty clear that Visa's business will be back to \"normal\" a couple of years down the road, and potentially in 2022 already, thus the recent sell-off seems like an overreaction to a short-term issue -- giving investors an opportunity to buy at a discount.\nVisa: The Opportunity Of The Decade?\nVisa is a quality company: It has excellent fundamentals, such as a free cash flow margin of more than 50%:\n\nFor every dollar in revenue that Visa generates, more than 50c have ended up as free cash on Visa's balance sheet, allowing the company to finance attractive shareholder return payments via dividends and buybacks. Since Visa's technology is already in place and since the company should benefit from fixed cost digression and operating leverage, it has to be expected that the FCF margin on each additional dollar in revenue is even higher than the already very high \"average\" FCF margin the company reports. Likewise, Visa also sports excellent returns on capital, with a return on capital employed of 25% and a return on equity of 36% (per YCharts), making this a strong compounded over the years. Visa's balance sheet is very clean as well, which is rewarded by a strongAA-credit rating.\nStrong companies such as Visa, especially if they also have a great track record and compelling growth potential, usually trade at high valuations. This also holds true for Visa, which used to trade at well-above-average valuations:\n\nVisa's 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year median earnings multiples stand at 33-36, which represents a clear premium compared to how the market used to trade in the same time frame. Visa's valuation premium has, however, declined massively in recent weeks. Based on current forecasts for this year's expected earnings per share, Visa is trading for less than 28x current net profits today. This represents a discount of ~20% compared to how the company was valued in the past. When we account for the fact that the broad market gotmore expensiveover the last couple of years, Visa's discount compared to its historic valuation becomes even more remarkable -- the stock has become a lot cheaper in a time frame during which many other equities became more expensive. This does, I believe, represent a pretty clear investment opportunity.\nMy belief that Visa is offered at an attractive price today is also underlined by the following chart:\n\nVisa's EV to EBITDA multiple, which accounts for debt usage and cash held on the balance sheet, has dropped by more than 30% from recent highs. The only other time when we have seen a drop of more than 30% was during the peak of the COVID panic in early 2020. This drop did not last long at all, and was, in retrospect, a great time to buy. A similarly large drop in Visa's valuation, such as the one we are experiencing right now, has, outside of the COVID panic, never occurred over the last decade, and does, I believe, represent an attractive buying opportunity.\nGrowth Drivers Remain In Place\nVisa will, I believe, be able to grow its profits at an attractive pace in the coming years. This will be possible through several contributing factors. First, consumers in many countries are in a strong position right now -- stimulus payments, fewer opportunities to spend money outside of one's home in 2020, and a rebounding economy have resulted in ample cash available for spending for consumers. We see this, for example, in consumer spending growth that is forecasted at more than 8% for the current year. More consumer spending means that, all else equal, Visa and other credit card players will take in larger revenues. There is another factor at play that will allow Visa to grow its revenue faster than the overall consumer spending growth rate, however. Non-cash payments, as a percentage of overall payments being made around the globe, are growing:\nSource: statista.com\nThis trend has been in place for many years, and forecasts see it remain in place in the coming years. As users use less cash and swipe their cards more often, or use technologies such as Apple Pay (AAPL), credit card players such as Visa will be taking their share from a growing pool of payments being made around the world. Especially in international markets, such as the vast Asia-Pacific region, there is a lot of growth potential. In the above chart, we see that Asia-Pacific non-cash payments totaled 280 million in 2020, about 1.5x as much as the 185 million in North America -- there are way more than 1.5x as many consumers in the Asia-Pacific region, compared to North America, however. Over the years, more and more of those consumers will start to use non-cash payment options, which will allow for compelling market opportunities for Visa and its peers. As a global player with established business relations in many countries around the world, Visa is a prime candidate for capturing a large portion of this market potential.\nVisa's net profits should also see tailwinds from expanding margins in the coming years. Visa's margins are already very high, but since proportional costs for each added customer, or each additional transaction, are very slim, operating leverage and fixed cost digression should result in additional margin expansion in the coming years. Per YCharts, Visa's gross margin is around 80%, so one can expect that around 80c will flow through to the (pre-tax) bottom line for each incremental dollar in revenue.\nLast but not least, Visa's earnings per share growth will benefit from the company's rapid buybacks:\n\nOver the last decade, Visa has bought back more than 20% of its shares on a net basis (buybacks were even higher on a gross basis, but the company does issue shares to employees and management as part of their compensation). This means that each individual share's portion of the overall company has grown by 27% over the last decade, providing a pretty sizable boost to the value per share and to the company's earnings per share growth.\nIt can be expected that Visa will continue to buy back shares at a meaningful pace. Thanks to the company's strong cash flows and the aforementioned below-average valuation, it would make sense for Visa to ramp up its buyback pace as long as shares remain this cheap and trade at a clear discount compared to how they were valued in the past.\nVisa is forecasted to earn $11.50 per share in 2025, although it seems likely that actual results will be better -- the company has beaten EPS estimates in an incredible 19 out of the last 20 quarters:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nWhen we assume that Visa will continue to perform better than expected, actual earnings per share in 2025 could total around $12, as Visa has oftentimes beaten EPS estimates by 5%-10% in the past. If Visa were to trade at 23x net profits in 2025, this would equate to a share price of $276 four years from now, which would allow for total returns of ~10% a year from the current level, including the dividend yield of 0.8%.\nIf Visa were to trade at 25x net profits in 2025, which would still represent a clear discount compared to how shares were valued in the past, and compared to how they are valued today, then Visa's share price could climb to $300 over the next four years, which would result in annual returns of 12%. If Visa would trade at 30x net profits in 2025, which would be more expensive than shares are valued today, but which would still be inexpensive relative to valuation multiples in the past, then a share price of $360 would translate into total returns of 17% a year.\nEven the most conservative of these scenarios, where Visa returns around 10% a year while experiencing considerable multiple compression, is still a pretty good one overall. I thus believe that Visa is an attractive investment at current prices -- especially when we consider the aforementioned discount to the historic valuation range and the steep valuation decline Visa has experienced in the very recent past.\nTakeaway\nVisa is a great company, but great companies oftentimes are pricey. That also used to be the case here, but in recent months, Visa has become a lot cheaper. Right now, investors can buy shares at a clear discount to the normal valuation range, and the valuation decline Visa has experienced during this sell-off is an absolute outlier -- on par with what happened during the initial COVID panic. I believe that Visa is an attractive investment right here and that investors can reasonably expect total returns of at least 10% a year over the coming years -- depending on the valuation a couple of years down the road, returns could also be way higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":12,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/603735926"}