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2021-12-13
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Apple Could Be the First $3 Trillion Company. Why Its Rally Won’t Stop There.<blockquote>苹果可能成为第一家市值3万亿美元的公司。为什么它的反弹不会就此止步？</blockquote>
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Why Its Rally Won’t Stop There.<blockquote>苹果可能成为第一家市值3万亿美元的公司。为什么它的反弹不会就此止步？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118643418","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares have been on a ferocious tear, up 34% year to date, leaving it less than 5% away from a","content":"<p>Apple shares have been on a ferocious tear, up 34% year to date, leaving it less than 5% away from a $3 trillion market capitalization, a milestone never hit by any other public company. The rally includes a startling 18% spurt in just the past four weeks, a period in which the S&P 500 has improved less than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价一直在猛烈撕裂，今年迄今已上涨 34%，距离 3 万亿美元的市值仅不到 5%，这是任何其他上市公司从未达到的里程碑。这一涨势包括在过去四个星期内惊人地飙升了 18%，而在此期间，标普500的涨幅不到 2%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s an astonishing performance. Keep in mind that there’s only one other company— Microsoft —with a market cap above $2 trillion, and just three others— Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Tesla —above $1 trillion. Founded in 1976, it took Apple 44 years to reach the $1 trillion level for the first time, in 2018. Two years later, in August 2020, the stock hit $2 trillion. And now just 15 months later, the stock is zeroing in on $3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一场令人惊叹的表演。请记住，只有一家公司--微软--市值超过 2 万亿美元，而另外三家公司--Alphabet、亚马逊和特斯拉--市值超过 1 万亿美元。苹果成立于1976年，花了44年时间才在2018年首次达到1万亿美元的水平。两年后，即 2020 年 8 月，该股市值达到 2 万亿美元。仅仅 15 个月后，该股市值就降至 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> So what’s going on here?</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么回事？</blockquote></p><p> I’d argue that there are at least four reasons why Apple stock (ticker: AAPL) continues to rally to higher highs—and why $3 trillion will eventually look more like the floor than the ceiling.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）继续反弹至更高的高点至少有四个原因，以及为什么 3 万亿美元最终看起来更像是底线而不是天花板。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Apple has become a haven for tech investors in times of turmoil—a flight-to-safety play; digital gold. Apple thrived during the pandemic, with accelerated demand for both Macs and iPads. And it has motored right along as the world begins the complex process of returning to normalcy, powered by iPhone and services growth. Apple continues to innovate, the company has fanatical customer loyalty, and it continues a shareholder-friendly policy of aggressively buying back its own shares. If you had to pick just one tech stock to own for the long haul, many would choose Apple.</p><p><blockquote>首先，苹果已成为动荡时期科技投资者的避风港——一种避险策略；数字黄金。苹果在疫情期间蓬勃发展，对 Mac 和 iPad 的需求加速增长。在iPhone和服务增长的推动下，随着世界开始恢复正常的复杂过程，它也在加速发展。苹果不断创新，公司拥有狂热的客户忠诚度，并继续推行积极回购自身股票的有利于股东的政策。如果你必须选择一只科技股长期持有，许多人会选择苹果。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts continue to report iPhone 13 demand outstripping supply. Parts shortages remain an issue, and Apple warned in reporting September-quarter results that the December quarter would be muffled by an inability to meet demand. But remember that coming into this cycle, Street expectations for iPhone 13 were muted. Analysts saw this year’s model as an interim step—not nearly as important as the iPhone 12, the first to include 5G connectivity. But as was the case with the iPhone 11, there is reason to think that the Street has underestimated demand for the iPhone 13. In particular, there have been reports of historically high demand for the new phones in China, setting the stage for a potential December-quarter earnings surprise.</p><p><blockquote>分析师继续报告 iPhone 13 需求超过供应。零部件短缺仍然是一个问题，苹果在报告 9 月份季度业绩时警告称，12 月份季度将因无法满足需求而受到影响。但请记住，进入这个周期，华尔街对iPhone 13的期望是低迷的。分析师认为今年的机型只是一个临时步骤--远不如首款包含 5G 连接的 iPhone 12 重要。但与 iPhone 11 的情况一样，有理由认为华尔街低估了 iPhone 13 的需求。特别是，有报道称中国对新手机的需求创历史新高，为 12 月份季度潜在的盈利惊喜埋下了伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Apple got an unexpected boost on the legal front last week when a federal appeals court issued a stay, pending appeal, of a lower-court ruling that would have forced Apple to let developers include alternatives to Apple’s own payment system for in-app purchases. The three-judge panel for the Ninth Circuit found that Apple has demonstrated “serious questions” about the lower court’s finding that Apple violates California’s unfair competition law. Resolution of Apple’s appeal in the case could now drag on for months, or years—and the longer the delay, the better for Apple, which would rather keep the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果上周在法律方面得到了意想不到的推动，联邦上诉法院发布了一项下级法院裁决的暂缓执行令，等待上诉，该裁决将迫使苹果允许开发商在应用内购买时加入苹果自己的支付系统的替代方案。第九巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭认为，苹果对下级法院认定苹果违反加州不正当竞争法提出了 “严重质疑”。苹果在此案中的上诉解决现在可能会拖延数月甚至数年--拖延的时间越长，对苹果越有利，因为它宁愿维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most important, Wall Street in the past few weeks has begun to factor in two yet-to-be-announced new product categories—augmented- and virtual-reality headsets and autonomous vehicles—to its Apple financial and valuation models.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，华尔街在过去几周开始将两个尚未宣布的新产品类别——增强和虚拟现实耳机以及自动驾驶汽车——纳入其苹果财务和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty last week reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple shares, lifting her price target on the stock to $200, from $165; the new target implies a potential valuation of $3.3 trillion. For the near term, she says, iPhone sales and App Store activity should surprise to the upside. But she also contends that the time has come to start pricing new products into the mix.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 上周重申了苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 165 美元上调至 200 美元；新目标意味着潜在估值为 3.3 万亿美元。她表示，短期内，iPhone 销量和 App Store 活动应该会出人意料地好转。但她也认为，现在是开始为新产品定价的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple shares don’t seem to bake in the impact from upcoming new product launches,” despite a consistent record of innovation, Huberty asserts in a research note. She points out that Apple has rallied nearly 500% over the past five years—about quintuple the return on the S&P 500—in a period when iPhone revenue grew just 40%. The explanation for that divergence, she says, is that Apple has been innovating in other areas.</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂在一份研究报告中断言：”尽管苹果的创新记录始终如一，但其股价似乎并没有受到即将推出的新产品的影响。她指出，苹果在过去五年中上涨了近 500%，大约是标普500回报率的五倍，而 iPhone 收入仅增长了 40%。她说，造成这种差异的原因是苹果一直在其他领域进行创新。</blockquote></p><p> Apple built a wearables business, including the Apple Watch, that generates $38 billion a year in revenue, the size of a Fortune 120 company. And the Apple services business now produces nearly $70 billion a year in revenue, doubling over the past four years. As Apple gets closer to launches in AR/VR headsets and cars, Huberty concludes, those should be reflected in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果建立了包括苹果手表在内的可穿戴设备业务，每年产生 380 亿美元的收入，相当于一家财富 120 强公司的规模。苹果服务业务目前每年产生近 700 亿美元的收入，比过去四年翻了一番。休伯蒂总结说，随着苹果越来越接近推出 AR/VR 头显和汽车，这些都应该反映在公司的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> The potential is vast. TFI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been writing a series of research notes on Apple’s future AR/VR headsets, projects the company could sell a billion of the devices over the next 10 years. He thinks the gizmos will eventually cannibalize the iPhone market and become the primary online experience for many.</p><p><blockquote>潜力是巨大的。TFI 证券分析师郭明𫓹一直在撰写一系列关于苹果未来 AR/VR 头显的研究报告，他预计该公司将在未来 10 年内售出 10 亿台这种设备。他认为这些小发明最终将蚕食iPhone市场，并成为许多人的主要在线体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asserted, in a research note last week on Apple’s place in the metaverse, that the hardware access layer to the virtual world is likely to be concentrated among a few large players, as it has for the PC, mobile phone, and tablet markets. Sacconaghi says a rough guess is that AR/VR devices could be 4% of Apple’s revenue in 2030—and over 20% in 2040.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦分析师托尼-萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）上周在一份关于苹果在元宇宙中地位的研究报告中断言，虚拟世界的硬件接入层可能会集中在少数几家大型企业手中，就像个人电脑、手机和平板电脑市场一样。萨科纳吉说，粗略估计，到 2030 年，AR/VR 设备可能占苹果收入的 4%，到 2040 年将超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> In case you’re wondering how this might play out, think back to 2020, when the buzz about the iPhone 12 became almost deafening in the run-up to its launch, driving up Apple’s share price. If and when it becomes clear that Apple is likely to jump into this new market in calendar 2022, the noise level is going to become earsplitting.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想知道这可能会如何发展，请回想一下 2020 年，当时关于 iPhone 12 的热议在发布前夕变得几乎震耳欲聋，推高了苹果的股价。如果苹果很可能在2022年进入这个新市场，噪音水平将变得震耳欲聋。</blockquote></p><p> Mark Zuckerberg may be talking the most about the metaverse, but Tim Cook’s company might just be the big winner here.</p><p><blockquote>马克-扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）可能是元宇宙谈论最多的人，但蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的公司可能是这里的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Be the First $3 Trillion Company. Why Its Rally Won’t Stop There.<blockquote>苹果可能成为第一家市值3万亿美元的公司。为什么它的反弹不会就此止步？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Be the First $3 Trillion Company. Why Its Rally Won’t Stop There.<blockquote>苹果可能成为第一家市值3万亿美元的公司。为什么它的反弹不会就此止步？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 07:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares have been on a ferocious tear, up 34% year to date, leaving it less than 5% away from a $3 trillion market capitalization, a milestone never hit by any other public company. The rally includes a startling 18% spurt in just the past four weeks, a period in which the S&P 500 has improved less than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价一直在猛烈撕裂，今年迄今已上涨 34%，距离 3 万亿美元的市值仅不到 5%，这是任何其他上市公司从未达到的里程碑。这一涨势包括在过去四个星期内惊人地飙升了 18%，而在此期间，标普500的涨幅不到 2%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s an astonishing performance. Keep in mind that there’s only one other company— Microsoft —with a market cap above $2 trillion, and just three others— Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Tesla —above $1 trillion. Founded in 1976, it took Apple 44 years to reach the $1 trillion level for the first time, in 2018. Two years later, in August 2020, the stock hit $2 trillion. And now just 15 months later, the stock is zeroing in on $3 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一场令人惊叹的表演。请记住，只有一家公司--微软--市值超过 2 万亿美元，而另外三家公司--Alphabet、亚马逊和特斯拉--市值超过 1 万亿美元。苹果成立于1976年，花了44年时间才在2018年首次达到1万亿美元的水平。两年后，即 2020 年 8 月，该股市值达到 2 万亿美元。仅仅 15 个月后，该股市值就降至 3 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> So what’s going on here?</p><p><blockquote>这是怎么回事？</blockquote></p><p> I’d argue that there are at least four reasons why Apple stock (ticker: AAPL) continues to rally to higher highs—and why $3 trillion will eventually look more like the floor than the ceiling.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，苹果股票（股票代码：AAPL）继续反弹至更高的高点至少有四个原因，以及为什么 3 万亿美元最终看起来更像是底线而不是天花板。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Apple has become a haven for tech investors in times of turmoil—a flight-to-safety play; digital gold. Apple thrived during the pandemic, with accelerated demand for both Macs and iPads. And it has motored right along as the world begins the complex process of returning to normalcy, powered by iPhone and services growth. Apple continues to innovate, the company has fanatical customer loyalty, and it continues a shareholder-friendly policy of aggressively buying back its own shares. If you had to pick just one tech stock to own for the long haul, many would choose Apple.</p><p><blockquote>首先，苹果已成为动荡时期科技投资者的避风港——一种避险策略；数字黄金。苹果在疫情期间蓬勃发展，对 Mac 和 iPad 的需求加速增长。在iPhone和服务增长的推动下，随着世界开始恢复正常的复杂过程，它也在加速发展。苹果不断创新，公司拥有狂热的客户忠诚度，并继续推行积极回购自身股票的有利于股东的政策。如果你必须选择一只科技股长期持有，许多人会选择苹果。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts continue to report iPhone 13 demand outstripping supply. Parts shortages remain an issue, and Apple warned in reporting September-quarter results that the December quarter would be muffled by an inability to meet demand. But remember that coming into this cycle, Street expectations for iPhone 13 were muted. Analysts saw this year’s model as an interim step—not nearly as important as the iPhone 12, the first to include 5G connectivity. But as was the case with the iPhone 11, there is reason to think that the Street has underestimated demand for the iPhone 13. In particular, there have been reports of historically high demand for the new phones in China, setting the stage for a potential December-quarter earnings surprise.</p><p><blockquote>分析师继续报告 iPhone 13 需求超过供应。零部件短缺仍然是一个问题，苹果在报告 9 月份季度业绩时警告称，12 月份季度将因无法满足需求而受到影响。但请记住，进入这个周期，华尔街对iPhone 13的期望是低迷的。分析师认为今年的机型只是一个临时步骤--远不如首款包含 5G 连接的 iPhone 12 重要。但与 iPhone 11 的情况一样，有理由认为华尔街低估了 iPhone 13 的需求。特别是，有报道称中国对新手机的需求创历史新高，为 12 月份季度潜在的盈利惊喜埋下了伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Apple got an unexpected boost on the legal front last week when a federal appeals court issued a stay, pending appeal, of a lower-court ruling that would have forced Apple to let developers include alternatives to Apple’s own payment system for in-app purchases. The three-judge panel for the Ninth Circuit found that Apple has demonstrated “serious questions” about the lower court’s finding that Apple violates California’s unfair competition law. Resolution of Apple’s appeal in the case could now drag on for months, or years—and the longer the delay, the better for Apple, which would rather keep the status quo.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，苹果上周在法律方面得到了意想不到的推动，联邦上诉法院发布了一项下级法院裁决的暂缓执行令，等待上诉，该裁决将迫使苹果允许开发商在应用内购买时加入苹果自己的支付系统的替代方案。第九巡回法院的三名法官组成的合议庭认为，苹果对下级法院认定苹果违反加州不正当竞争法提出了 “严重质疑”。苹果在此案中的上诉解决现在可能会拖延数月甚至数年--拖延的时间越长，对苹果越有利，因为它宁愿维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most important, Wall Street in the past few weeks has begun to factor in two yet-to-be-announced new product categories—augmented- and virtual-reality headsets and autonomous vehicles—to its Apple financial and valuation models.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，华尔街在过去几周开始将两个尚未宣布的新产品类别——增强和虚拟现实耳机以及自动驾驶汽车——纳入其苹果财务和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty last week reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple shares, lifting her price target on the stock to $200, from $165; the new target implies a potential valuation of $3.3 trillion. For the near term, she says, iPhone sales and App Store activity should surprise to the upside. But she also contends that the time has come to start pricing new products into the mix.</p><p><blockquote>例如，摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 上周重申了苹果股票的跑赢大盘评级，将该股目标价从 165 美元上调至 200 美元；新目标意味着潜在估值为 3.3 万亿美元。她表示，短期内，iPhone 销量和 App Store 活动应该会出人意料地好转。但她也认为，现在是开始为新产品定价的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple shares don’t seem to bake in the impact from upcoming new product launches,” despite a consistent record of innovation, Huberty asserts in a research note. She points out that Apple has rallied nearly 500% over the past five years—about quintuple the return on the S&P 500—in a period when iPhone revenue grew just 40%. The explanation for that divergence, she says, is that Apple has been innovating in other areas.</p><p><blockquote>“休伯蒂在一份研究报告中断言：”尽管苹果的创新记录始终如一，但其股价似乎并没有受到即将推出的新产品的影响。她指出，苹果在过去五年中上涨了近 500%，大约是标普500回报率的五倍，而 iPhone 收入仅增长了 40%。她说，造成这种差异的原因是苹果一直在其他领域进行创新。</blockquote></p><p> Apple built a wearables business, including the Apple Watch, that generates $38 billion a year in revenue, the size of a Fortune 120 company. And the Apple services business now produces nearly $70 billion a year in revenue, doubling over the past four years. As Apple gets closer to launches in AR/VR headsets and cars, Huberty concludes, those should be reflected in the company’s valuation.</p><p><blockquote>苹果建立了包括苹果手表在内的可穿戴设备业务，每年产生 380 亿美元的收入，相当于一家财富 120 强公司的规模。苹果服务业务目前每年产生近 700 亿美元的收入，比过去四年翻了一番。休伯蒂总结说，随着苹果越来越接近推出 AR/VR 头显和汽车，这些都应该反映在公司的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> The potential is vast. TFI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been writing a series of research notes on Apple’s future AR/VR headsets, projects the company could sell a billion of the devices over the next 10 years. He thinks the gizmos will eventually cannibalize the iPhone market and become the primary online experience for many.</p><p><blockquote>潜力是巨大的。TFI 证券分析师郭明𫓹一直在撰写一系列关于苹果未来 AR/VR 头显的研究报告，他预计该公司将在未来 10 年内售出 10 亿台这种设备。他认为这些小发明最终将蚕食iPhone市场，并成为许多人的主要在线体验。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asserted, in a research note last week on Apple’s place in the metaverse, that the hardware access layer to the virtual world is likely to be concentrated among a few large players, as it has for the PC, mobile phone, and tablet markets. Sacconaghi says a rough guess is that AR/VR devices could be 4% of Apple’s revenue in 2030—and over 20% in 2040.</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦分析师托尼-萨科纳吉（Toni Sacconaghi）上周在一份关于苹果在元宇宙中地位的研究报告中断言，虚拟世界的硬件接入层可能会集中在少数几家大型企业手中，就像个人电脑、手机和平板电脑市场一样。萨科纳吉说，粗略估计，到 2030 年，AR/VR 设备可能占苹果收入的 4%，到 2040 年将超过 20%。</blockquote></p><p> In case you’re wondering how this might play out, think back to 2020, when the buzz about the iPhone 12 became almost deafening in the run-up to its launch, driving up Apple’s share price. If and when it becomes clear that Apple is likely to jump into this new market in calendar 2022, the noise level is going to become earsplitting.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想知道这可能会如何发展，请回想一下 2020 年，当时关于 iPhone 12 的热议在发布前夕变得几乎震耳欲聋，推高了苹果的股价。如果苹果很可能在2022年进入这个新市场，噪音水平将变得震耳欲聋。</blockquote></p><p> Mark Zuckerberg may be talking the most about the metaverse, but Tim Cook’s company might just be the big winner here.</p><p><blockquote>马克-扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）可能是元宇宙谈论最多的人，但蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的公司可能是这里的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-market-cap-virtual-reality-51639155227?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-market-cap-virtual-reality-51639155227?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118643418","content_text":"Apple shares have been on a ferocious tear, up 34% year to date, leaving it less than 5% away from a $3 trillion market capitalization, a milestone never hit by any other public company. The rally includes a startling 18% spurt in just the past four weeks, a period in which the S&P 500 has improved less than 2%.\nIt’s an astonishing performance. Keep in mind that there’s only one other company— Microsoft —with a market cap above $2 trillion, and just three others— Alphabet,Amazon.com,and Tesla —above $1 trillion. Founded in 1976, it took Apple 44 years to reach the $1 trillion level for the first time, in 2018. Two years later, in August 2020, the stock hit $2 trillion. And now just 15 months later, the stock is zeroing in on $3 trillion.\nSo what’s going on here?\nI’d argue that there are at least four reasons why Apple stock (ticker: AAPL) continues to rally to higher highs—and why $3 trillion will eventually look more like the floor than the ceiling.\nFor starters, Apple has become a haven for tech investors in times of turmoil—a flight-to-safety play; digital gold. Apple thrived during the pandemic, with accelerated demand for both Macs and iPads. And it has motored right along as the world begins the complex process of returning to normalcy, powered by iPhone and services growth. Apple continues to innovate, the company has fanatical customer loyalty, and it continues a shareholder-friendly policy of aggressively buying back its own shares. If you had to pick just one tech stock to own for the long haul, many would choose Apple.\nAnalysts continue to report iPhone 13 demand outstripping supply. Parts shortages remain an issue, and Apple warned in reporting September-quarter results that the December quarter would be muffled by an inability to meet demand. But remember that coming into this cycle, Street expectations for iPhone 13 were muted. Analysts saw this year’s model as an interim step—not nearly as important as the iPhone 12, the first to include 5G connectivity. But as was the case with the iPhone 11, there is reason to think that the Street has underestimated demand for the iPhone 13. In particular, there have been reports of historically high demand for the new phones in China, setting the stage for a potential December-quarter earnings surprise.\nMeanwhile, Apple got an unexpected boost on the legal front last week when a federal appeals court issued a stay, pending appeal, of a lower-court ruling that would have forced Apple to let developers include alternatives to Apple’s own payment system for in-app purchases. The three-judge panel for the Ninth Circuit found that Apple has demonstrated “serious questions” about the lower court’s finding that Apple violates California’s unfair competition law. Resolution of Apple’s appeal in the case could now drag on for months, or years—and the longer the delay, the better for Apple, which would rather keep the status quo.\nPerhaps most important, Wall Street in the past few weeks has begun to factor in two yet-to-be-announced new product categories—augmented- and virtual-reality headsets and autonomous vehicles—to its Apple financial and valuation models.\nFor instance, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty last week reiterated an Overweight rating on Apple shares, lifting her price target on the stock to $200, from $165; the new target implies a potential valuation of $3.3 trillion. For the near term, she says, iPhone sales and App Store activity should surprise to the upside. But she also contends that the time has come to start pricing new products into the mix.\n“Apple shares don’t seem to bake in the impact from upcoming new product launches,” despite a consistent record of innovation, Huberty asserts in a research note. She points out that Apple has rallied nearly 500% over the past five years—about quintuple the return on the S&P 500—in a period when iPhone revenue grew just 40%. The explanation for that divergence, she says, is that Apple has been innovating in other areas.\nApple built a wearables business, including the Apple Watch, that generates $38 billion a year in revenue, the size of a Fortune 120 company. And the Apple services business now produces nearly $70 billion a year in revenue, doubling over the past four years. As Apple gets closer to launches in AR/VR headsets and cars, Huberty concludes, those should be reflected in the company’s valuation.\nThe potential is vast. TFI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been writing a series of research notes on Apple’s future AR/VR headsets, projects the company could sell a billion of the devices over the next 10 years. He thinks the gizmos will eventually cannibalize the iPhone market and become the primary online experience for many.\nBernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi asserted, in a research note last week on Apple’s place in the metaverse, that the hardware access layer to the virtual world is likely to be concentrated among a few large players, as it has for the PC, mobile phone, and tablet markets. Sacconaghi says a rough guess is that AR/VR devices could be 4% of Apple’s revenue in 2030—and over 20% in 2040.\nIn case you’re wondering how this might play out, think back to 2020, when the buzz about the iPhone 12 became almost deafening in the run-up to its launch, driving up Apple’s share price. If and when it becomes clear that Apple is likely to jump into this new market in calendar 2022, the noise level is going to become earsplitting.\nMark Zuckerberg may be talking the most about the metaverse, but Tim Cook’s company might just be the big winner here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4502,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604385026"}
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