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2021-12-14
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A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后是100年来的第三次泡沫。以下是如何做好准备。</blockquote>
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Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后是100年来的第三次泡沫。以下是如何做好准备。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153178155","media":"market watch","summary":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing ","content":"<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.</p><p><blockquote>在本周举行的数十场央行会议中，美联储以缩减购债规模和可能提前加息的暗示抢尽了风头。</blockquote></p><p> After the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.</p><p><blockquote>安联首席顾问Mohamed El-Erian表示，在经历了“历史上最严重的通胀看涨期权”及其信誉崩溃之后，董事长Jerome Powell将需要严格控制局面。因此，我们将看看美联储可能采取更严厉的政策是否会让标普500脱离圣诞老人反弹路径，尽管消费者价格令人鼻血，但周五该指数仍跌至新高。</blockquote></p><p> On to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>由Barry Bannister领导的Stifel团队在我们今天的看涨期权上警告说，由于“自COVID-19以来糟糕的货币和财政决策”，将出现另一个时代的泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> And maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…</p><p><blockquote>也许可以在圣诞老人集会持续期间享受它，因为该团队预计近期调整将使标普500在明年第一季度跌至4,000点的低点。然后……</blockquote></p><p> “Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel团队表示：“2022-23E晚些时候，我们认为‘落后’的美联储可能会制造100年来的第三次泡沫，到2023年，标普500将达到6,750人（纳斯达克[约]25,000人）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“民粹主义（美联储和财政部似乎拥抱民粹主义）会导致糟糕的选择，甚至更糟糕的结果。利率压制可能会再次制造泡沫，泡沫会破裂（总是如此），随之而来的是失去的十年。”</blockquote></p><p> It said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>它表示，投资者应该从历史中寻找这种情况可能发生的证据。在1999-2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前，标普500在1998年第三季度下跌了近20%。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，美联储从1999年下半年到次年上半年“姗姗来迟”的紧缩政策无法阻止这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> “The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.</p><p><blockquote>策略师补充道：“同样的情况也发生在咆哮的20年代，随着1929年10月崩盘前利率上升，1928年12月中旬下跌了-10.7%。”</blockquote></p><p> The only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”</p><p><blockquote>防止此类泡沫的唯一方法是美联储关注自己的金融稳定报告，该报告警告散户投资者风险偏好上升以及股票和房地产估值较高，并“倾向鹰派”。</blockquote></p><p> “Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，政策可能来得太晚，如果市场在股票风险溢价下降的情况下‘冒险’，并且如果10年期国债通胀保值证券(TIPS)收益率因全球央行而保持在-1.0%，2022-2023年可能会出现P/E[市盈率]凸性泡沫，”他们表示。</blockquote></p><p> While the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大的可能还有很长的路要走，但他们提供了近期的生存指南。Bannister和他的团队表示，如果标普500和大宗商品同时走软——他们预计，由于美元走强、中国经济增长放缓、美联储退出信号和全球流动性收紧——投资者可以寻求标普500防御措施的庇护。因此，目前，医疗保健、消费品、公用事业和电信是首选的安全点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后是100年来的第三次泡沫。以下是如何做好准备。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后是100年来的第三次泡沫。以下是如何做好准备。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 07:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.</p><p><blockquote>在本周举行的数十场央行会议中，美联储以缩减购债规模和可能提前加息的暗示抢尽了风头。</blockquote></p><p> After the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.</p><p><blockquote>安联首席顾问Mohamed El-Erian表示，在经历了“历史上最严重的通胀看涨期权”及其信誉崩溃之后，董事长Jerome Powell将需要严格控制局面。因此，我们将看看美联储可能采取更严厉的政策是否会让标普500脱离圣诞老人反弹路径，尽管消费者价格令人鼻血，但周五该指数仍跌至新高。</blockquote></p><p> On to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>由Barry Bannister领导的Stifel团队在我们今天的看涨期权上警告说，由于“自COVID-19以来糟糕的货币和财政决策”，将出现另一个时代的泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> And maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…</p><p><blockquote>也许可以在圣诞老人集会持续期间享受它，因为该团队预计近期调整将使标普500在明年第一季度跌至4,000点的低点。然后……</blockquote></p><p> “Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.</p><p><blockquote>Stifel团队表示：“2022-23E晚些时候，我们认为‘落后’的美联储可能会制造100年来的第三次泡沫，到2023年，标普500将达到6,750人（纳斯达克[约]25,000人）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.</p><p><blockquote>报告称：“民粹主义（美联储和财政部似乎拥抱民粹主义）会导致糟糕的选择，甚至更糟糕的结果。利率压制可能会再次制造泡沫，泡沫会破裂（总是如此），随之而来的是失去的十年。”</blockquote></p><p> It said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>它表示，投资者应该从历史中寻找这种情况可能发生的证据。在1999-2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前，标普500在1998年第三季度下跌了近20%。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，美联储从1999年下半年到次年上半年“姗姗来迟”的紧缩政策无法阻止这种情况。</blockquote></p><p> “The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.</p><p><blockquote>策略师补充道：“同样的情况也发生在咆哮的20年代，随着1929年10月崩盘前利率上升，1928年12月中旬下跌了-10.7%。”</blockquote></p><p> The only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”</p><p><blockquote>防止此类泡沫的唯一方法是美联储关注自己的金融稳定报告，该报告警告散户投资者风险偏好上升以及股票和房地产估值较高，并“倾向鹰派”。</blockquote></p><p> “Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>“尽管如此，政策可能来得太晚，如果市场在股票风险溢价下降的情况下‘冒险’，并且如果10年期国债通胀保值证券(TIPS)收益率因全球央行而保持在-1.0%，2022-2023年可能会出现P/E[市盈率]凸性泡沫，”他们表示。</blockquote></p><p> While the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大的可能还有很长的路要走，但他们提供了近期的生存指南。Bannister和他的团队表示，如果标普500和大宗商品同时走软——他们预计，由于美元走强、中国经济增长放缓、美联储退出信号和全球流动性收紧——投资者可以寻求标普500防御措施的庇护。因此，目前，医疗保健、消费品、公用事业和电信是首选的安全点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2\">market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153178155","content_text":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.\n\nAfter the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.\n\nOn to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”\n\nAnd maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…\n\n“Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.\n\n“Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.\n\nIt said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.\n\n“The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.\n\n\nThe only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”\n\n“Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.\n\nWhile the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3318,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604412564"}
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