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2021-12-14
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A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后 100 年来的第三次泡沫即将到来。以下是如何准备。</blockquote>
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Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后 100 年来的第三次泡沫即将到来。以下是如何准备。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153178155","media":"market watch","summary":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing ","content":"<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.</p><p><blockquote>在本周挤满的数十次央行会议中，美联储以缩减规模的开始和可能提前加息的暗示抢尽了风头。</blockquote></p><p> After the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.</p><p><blockquote>安联首席顾问穆罕默德-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）表示，在 “历史上最严重的通胀看涨期权 ”及其公信力被打破之后，主席 Jerome Powell 需要强硬地掌控局面。因此，我们将拭目以待，看看美联储可能采取的更严厉措施是否能将标普500从圣诞老人的反弹路径上推开。</blockquote></p><p> On to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>接下来，由 Barry Bannister 领导的 Stifel 团队发布了我们今天的看涨期权，他们警告说，由于 “自 COVID-19 以来糟糕的货币和财政决策 ”，将会出现另一个千载难逢的泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> And maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…</p><p><blockquote>也许在圣诞老人集会持续期间享受它，因为该团队认为近期的调整将使标普500在明年第一季度接近 4,000 点的低点。然后……</blockquote></p><p> “Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.</p><p><blockquote>“斯蒂费尔团队说：”在2022-23E年晚些时候，我们认为'落后于曲线'的美联储可能会制造出100年来的第三个泡沫，到2023年，标普500的泡沫将达到6750个（纳斯达克[约]2.5万个）。</blockquote></p><p> “Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.</p><p><blockquote>“民粹主义（美联储和财政部似乎拥护民粹主义）会导致糟糕的选择，甚至更糟糕的结果。利率抑制可能会再次造成泡沫破裂（总是如此），随后是失去的十年，”报告说。</blockquote></p><p> It said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，投资者应该从历史中寻找这种情况可能发生的证据。在1999-2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前，1998年第三季度标普500下降了近20%。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，美联储从 1999 年下半年到明年上半年 “姗姗来迟 ”的紧缩政策并不能阻止它。</blockquote></p><p> “The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.</p><p><blockquote>“策略师们补充说：”同样的情况也发生在咆哮的 20 年代，1928 年 12 月中旬下跌了 -10.7%，因为在 1929 年 10 月崩盘之前利率上升了。</blockquote></p><p> The only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”</p><p><blockquote>防止这种泡沫的唯一方法是美联储关注自己的金融稳定报告，美联储在报告中警告说，散户投资者的风险偏好上升以及股票和房地产估值过高，并 “倾向于鹰派”。</blockquote></p><p> “Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们说：”尽管如此，政策出台可能为时已晚，如果市场在股票风险溢价下降的情况下'冒险'，如果10年期国债通胀保值证券（TIPS）收益率因全球央行而仍被压制在-1.0%，2022-2023年可能会出现市盈率[市盈率]凸性泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> While the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大的可能是一条路要走，但他们提供了一个近期生存指南。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，如果标普500和大宗商品同时走弱——他们预计，由于美元走强、中国经济增长放缓、美联储退出信号和全球流动性收紧——投资者可以寻求标普500防御。因此，目前医疗保健、必需消费品、公用事业和电信是安全的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后 100 年来的第三次泡沫即将到来。以下是如何准备。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA near-term pullback, then the third bubble in 100 years is coming, says strategist. Here’s how to get ready.<blockquote>策略师表示，近期回调，然后 100 年来的第三次泡沫即将到来。以下是如何准备。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 07:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.</p><p><blockquote>在本周挤满的数十次央行会议中，美联储以缩减规模的开始和可能提前加息的暗示抢尽了风头。</blockquote></p><p> After the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.</p><p><blockquote>安联首席顾问穆罕默德-埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）表示，在 “历史上最严重的通胀看涨期权 ”及其公信力被打破之后，主席 Jerome Powell 需要强硬地掌控局面。因此，我们将拭目以待，看看美联储可能采取的更严厉措施是否能将标普500从圣诞老人的反弹路径上推开。</blockquote></p><p> On to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”</p><p><blockquote>接下来，由 Barry Bannister 领导的 Stifel 团队发布了我们今天的看涨期权，他们警告说，由于 “自 COVID-19 以来糟糕的货币和财政决策 ”，将会出现另一个千载难逢的泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> And maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…</p><p><blockquote>也许在圣诞老人集会持续期间享受它，因为该团队认为近期的调整将使标普500在明年第一季度接近 4,000 点的低点。然后……</blockquote></p><p> “Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.</p><p><blockquote>“斯蒂费尔团队说：”在2022-23E年晚些时候，我们认为'落后于曲线'的美联储可能会制造出100年来的第三个泡沫，到2023年，标普500的泡沫将达到6750个（纳斯达克[约]2.5万个）。</blockquote></p><p> “Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.</p><p><blockquote>“民粹主义（美联储和财政部似乎拥护民粹主义）会导致糟糕的选择，甚至更糟糕的结果。利率抑制可能会再次造成泡沫破裂（总是如此），随后是失去的十年，”报告说。</blockquote></p><p> It said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，投资者应该从历史中寻找这种情况可能发生的证据。在1999-2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前，1998年第三季度标普500下降了近20%。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，美联储从 1999 年下半年到明年上半年 “姗姗来迟 ”的紧缩政策并不能阻止它。</blockquote></p><p> “The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.</p><p><blockquote>“策略师们补充说：”同样的情况也发生在咆哮的 20 年代，1928 年 12 月中旬下跌了 -10.7%，因为在 1929 年 10 月崩盘之前利率上升了。</blockquote></p><p> The only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”</p><p><blockquote>防止这种泡沫的唯一方法是美联储关注自己的金融稳定报告，美联储在报告中警告说，散户投资者的风险偏好上升以及股票和房地产估值过高，并 “倾向于鹰派”。</blockquote></p><p> “Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.</p><p><blockquote>“他们说：”尽管如此，政策出台可能为时已晚，如果市场在股票风险溢价下降的情况下'冒险'，如果10年期国债通胀保值证券（TIPS）收益率因全球央行而仍被压制在-1.0%，2022-2023年可能会出现市盈率[市盈率]凸性泡沫。</blockquote></p><p> While the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大的可能是一条路要走，但他们提供了一个近期生存指南。班尼斯特和他的团队表示，如果标普500和大宗商品同时走弱——他们预计，由于美元走强、中国经济增长放缓、美联储退出信号和全球流动性收紧——投资者可以寻求标普500防御。因此，目前医疗保健、必需消费品、公用事业和电信是安全的选择。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2\">market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-near-term-stock-pullback-then-a-bubble-not-seen-in-100-years-heres-how-to-start-preparing-11639398418?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153178155","content_text":"Of the dozens of central bank meetings crammed into this week, the Federal Reserve is seen stealing the show with a tapering start and possible early rate-hike hints.\n\nAfter the “worst inflation call in history” and its credibility shattered, Chair Jerome Powell will need to take the reins hard, says Allianz’s chief adviser Mohamed El-Erian. So we’ll see if a potentially sterner Fed knocks the S&P 500, which glided to a new high on Friday despite nosebleed consumer prices, off the Santa rally path.\n\nOn to our call of the day from a team at Stifel, led by Barry Bannister, warning of another bubble for the ages, thanks to “poor monetary and fiscal decisions since COVID-19.”\n\nAnd maybe enjoy any Santa rally while it lasts, as the team sees a near-term correction taking the S&P 500 toward the low 4,000s by the first quarter of next year. And then…\n\n“Later in 2022-23E, we believe the ‘behind-the-curve’ Fed might create the third bubble in 100 years, by 2023 to 6,750 for the S&P 500 (Nasdaq [approximately] 25,000),” said the Stifel team.\n\n“Populism (which the Fed and Treasury seemingly embrace) leads to poor choices and even worse outcomes. Rate repression may again create a bubble that bursts (always do), followed by a lost decade,” it said.\n\nIt said investors should look to history for proof this can happen. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in the third quarter of 1998 before the dot-com bubble burst in 1999-2000. A “late arriving” Fed tightening from the second-half of 1999 to the first half of the next year couldn’t stop it, said Bannister and the team.\n\n“The same happened in the Roaring ’20s, with a -10.7% mid_Dec-1928 drop as rates rose before the Oct.-1929 crash,” the strategists added.\n\n\nThe only way to prevent such a bubble would be for the Fed to heed its own financial stability report, where it warned over elevated risk appetite among retail investors and high equity and real estate valuations, and “tilt hawkish.”\n\n“Still, policy may arrive too late, and if the market goes ‘risk-on’ with a falling Equity Risk Premium and if the 10Y Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) yield remains repressed at -1.0% due to global central banks, a P/E [price-earnings] convexity bubble in 2022-2023E may occur,” they said.\n\nWhile the big one may be a way off, they offer a near-term survival guide. Bannister and his team said if both the S&P 500 and commodities weaken simultaneously — they expect that due to dollar strength, a China growth slowdown, Fed exit signals and tighter global liquidity —investors can take refuge in S&P 500 defensives. So healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications are the safety spots of choice, for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4501,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604412564"}
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