ehkay
2021-12-13
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A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022<blockquote>销售激增可能会使该行业成为2022年最佳股市走势</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":604618286,"tweetId":"604618286","gmtCreate":1639385691948,"gmtModify":1639385692034,"author":{"id":3583290509321840,"idStr":"3583290509321840","authorId":3583290509321840,"authorIdStr":"3583290509321840","name":"ehkay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf21fdc0ee5fa36576d29e4a9e31e1a8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[Smile] </span><br></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span>[Smile] </span><br></p></body></html>","text":"[Smile]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604618286","repostId":2190200176,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190200176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639374435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190200176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 13:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022<blockquote>销售激增可能会使该行业成为2022年最佳股市走势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190200176","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be ","content":"<p>For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> glaring exception.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多行业来说，2022年的同比比较看起来并不乐观。但很可能有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>明显的例外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504a973756c06669eb97fbdcb0887f31\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large auto-dealer chains, including AutoNation, for a rebound in new-car sales as supply shortages subside.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Spouting Rock Asset Management的David Dineen看好包括AutoNation在内的三大汽车经销商连锁店的股票，因为随着供应短缺的缓解，新车销量将出现反弹。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This has been quite a year for many industries, and not only because of sales rebounds after so many businesses were temporarily shut down during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多行业来说，这是不平凡的一年，这不仅仅是因为在冠状病毒大流行的早期阶段，许多企业暂时关闭后，销售反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Unprecedented stimulus payments by the federal government to consumers have helped feed pent-up demand, and with component supply disruptions, the most obvious distortion has been seen on auto-dealer lots.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政府向消费者提供了前所未有的刺激付款，帮助满足了被压抑的需求，而随着零部件供应中断，最明显的扭曲出现在汽车经销商地段。</blockquote></p><p> This is why David Dineen, the chief investment officer for global small-cap at Spouting Rock Asset Management, believes that three large auto-dealer chains are well-positioned for stock-price gains in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么Spouting Rock Asset Management全球小盘股首席投资官David Dineen认为，三家大型汽车经销商连锁店在2022年及以后的股价上涨中处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are coming off trough sales for this economic cycle\" for new cars, he said during an interview.</p><p><blockquote>他在接受采访时表示，“我们正在摆脱这个经济周期的新车销售低谷”。</blockquote></p><p> Spouting Rock Asset Management is based in Bryn Mawr, Penn., and has $3.1 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>Spouting Rock资产管理公司总部位于宾夕法尼亚州布林莫尔。，管理着31亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> The supply shortage has led to a decline in sales of new cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units in October from a SAAR of 18. 8 million in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.</p><p><blockquote>根据经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）的数据，供应短缺导致10月份新车和轻型卡车的季节性调整年化销量（SAAR）从4月份的1880万辆下降至1440万辆。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/660899263cc0cb8c6b1065cb36f440ed\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>圣路易斯联邦储备银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Dineen described the October SAAR as \"a recessionary level,\" underscoring an opportunity for investors, because the auto dealers trade at lower valuations than auto manufacturers and parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>Dineen将10月份的SAAR描述为“衰退水平”，强调了投资者的机会，因为汽车经销商的估值低于汽车制造商和零部件供应商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad 'comps' for many industries in 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年许多行业的“业绩”不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> When covering financial results, Wall Street analysts and the financial media are fixated on year-over-year comparisons because of seasonality. But those \"comps\" can paint a confusing picture. For example, an industry whose sales dropped during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 might have shown stellar \"improvement\" a year later, even if its sales hadn't come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在报道财务业绩时，由于季节性，华尔街分析师和财经媒体专注于同比比较。但是这些“comps”可能会描绘出一幅令人困惑的画面。例如，一个在2020年第一季度冠状病毒大流行初期销售额下降的行业可能在一年后表现出显著的“改善”，即使其销售额没有接近恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Artificially high year-over-year increases in sales, profits or cash flow this year may be followed by much slower growth rates as business in various industries gets closer to pre-pandemic norms.</p><p><blockquote>随着各行业的业务越来越接近大流行前的正常水平，今年销售额、利润或现金流的同比增幅可能会大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dineen, \"you will have difficult comps for much of consumption in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>Dineen表示，“2022年的大部分消费都将面临困难的竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> And that's why he thinks large dealers who sell new cars are a good place for investors who wish to make another pandemic rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么他认为销售新车的大型经销商对于希望再次实现大流行反弹的投资者来说是一个好地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low valuations for auto dealers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车经销商估值较低</b></blockquote></p><p> The auto dealers as a group have suffered a \"re-rating\" by investors as the shortage of new cars has caused sales to tumble, while creating upward price pressure and shortages of used cars.</p><p><blockquote>由于新车短缺导致销量暴跌，同时造成价格上涨压力和二手车短缺，汽车经销商作为一个群体遭受了投资者的“重新评级”。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate how this has affected stock valuations relative to earnings, we looked at the six auto dealers included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index (made up of the S&P 500 , the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MID\">$(MID)$</a> and the S&P Small Cap Index ). Here's how forward price-to-earnings ratios for the six car dealers have moved since the end of 2019:</p><p><blockquote>为了说明这如何影响股票相对于收益的估值，我们研究了标准普尔1500综合指数（由标普500、标准普尔400中型股指数组成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MID\">$（中）$</a>和标准普尔小型股指数）。以下是自2019年底以来这六家汽车经销商的远期市盈率的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ec20c1ad0523f6b145b3790bf9339a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward P/E ratios are based on rolling 12-month earnings estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.</p><p><blockquote>远期市盈率基于FactSet调查的分析师滚动12个月盈利预测。单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。单击此处，在MarketWatch报价页面上免费获取Tomi Kilgore丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p> The exception to downward P/E movement for these dealers has been CarMax Inc..</p><p><blockquote>这些经销商市盈率下降的例外是CarMax Inc..</blockquote></p><p> \"CarMax has had the most leverage to the used car market, which has been on fire,\" Dineen said. The five other dealers on the chart sell both new and used vehicles. Looking ahead over the next two years, as the supply chain presumably recovers and new-car production rebounds, he favors <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">AutoNation</a> Inc. (AN), Asbury Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABG\">$(ABG)$</a>, and Sonic Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(SAH)$</a> for an increase in P/E ratios and share prices.</p><p><blockquote>“CarMax对火热的二手车市场拥有最大的影响力，”Dineen说。图表上的其他五家经销商销售新车和二手车。展望未来两年，随着供应链可能复苏和新车产量反弹，他看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">自治</a>公司(AN)、阿斯伯里汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABG\">$(ABG)$</a>和索尼克汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$（有效）$</a>市盈率和股价的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For CarMax, comparisons may get \"slippery\" over the next two years, if a return to 2019 or 2020 sales levels for new cars causes the used-car market to cool, Dineen said.</p><p><blockquote>Dineen表示，对于CarMax来说，如果新车销量恢复到2019年或2020年的水平导致二手车市场降温，未来两年的比较可能会变得“不稳定”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's an easier way to compare current forward P/E ratios for the six dealers in the Composite 1500 to their pre-pandemic levels. The list is sorted by market capitalization:</p><p><blockquote>这里有一种更简单的方法可以将综合1500指数中六家经销商当前的远期市盈率与其大流行前的水平进行比较。榜单按市值排序：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22b35add96d4e81a058b94ed441a07b\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to the three dealers he favors (AutoNation, Asbury and Sonic), Dineen pointed out that Ford Motor Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 9.8, while General Motors Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 8.7. Meanwhile, auto-parts retailers trade much higher, with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORLY\">$(ORLY)$</a> at a forward P/E of 21.6, AutoZone Inc. at 18.3 and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">Advance Auto Parts Inc</a>. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP.AU\">$(AAP.AU)$</a> at 17.4.</p><p><blockquote>与他青睐的三家经销商（AutoNation、Asbury和Sonic）相比，迪宁指出，福特汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>通用汽车公司(General Motors Co.)的预期市盈率为9.8。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a>远期市盈率为8.7。与此同时，汽车零部件零售商的交易价格大幅上涨，其中O’Reilly Automotive Inc.。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORLY\">$（奥利）$</a>AutoZone Inc.的预期市盈率为21.6，为18.3，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">先进汽车零部件公司</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP.AU\">$(AAP.AU)$</a>在17.4。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street's view</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales for the six dealers, based on consensus estimates through calendar 2023 among analysts polled by FactSet. Sales numbers are in millions.</p><p><blockquote>以下是这六家经销商的预期复合年增长率(CAGR)，基于FactSet调查的分析师对2023年的一致估计。销售数字以百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d968e14be726da45e216a570cf2611\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion among brokerage firms' analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的经纪公司分析师的观点摘要：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dcc4a4bba95e6f9cf88346a9f93ed4a\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"513\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> CarMax has 61% \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. However, the stock is close to its target price. The analysts see high double-digit upside for all the others, even though only a third rate AutoNation a buy.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax拥有61%的“买入”或同等评级。然而，该股接近其目标价。分析师认为所有其他公司都有两位数的上涨空间，尽管只有三流AutoNation值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How does Tesla fit in?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉是如何融入的？</b></blockquote></p><p> When asked about the long-term viability of new-car dealers, in light of Tesla Inc.'s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> non-dealer distribution model for its electric vehicles, Dineen said: \"What really matters to us is valuation.\"</p><p><blockquote>当被问及新车经销商的长期生存能力时，鉴于特斯拉公司的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>对于其电动汽车的非经销商分销模式，迪宁表示：“对我们来说真正重要的是估值。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no question that Tesla is an awesome company,\" he said, but he added that Tesla's stock is \"priced to win 100% of electric-vehicle sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>“毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家很棒的公司，”他说，但他补充说，特斯拉的股票“定价将赢得100%的电动汽车销量”。</blockquote></p><p> \"When we look at automotive in general, we think the dealers make the most sense,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“当我们总体审视汽车行业时，我们认为经销商最有意义，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022<blockquote>销售激增可能会使该行业成为2022年最佳股市走势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA sales surge might make this industry your best stock market play for 2022<blockquote>销售激增可能会使该行业成为2022年最佳股市走势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 13:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> glaring exception.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多行业来说，2022年的同比比较看起来并不乐观。但很可能有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>明显的例外。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/504a973756c06669eb97fbdcb0887f31\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"338\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>David Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large auto-dealer chains, including AutoNation, for a rebound in new-car sales as supply shortages subside.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Spouting Rock Asset Management的David Dineen看好包括AutoNation在内的三大汽车经销商连锁店的股票，因为随着供应短缺的缓解，新车销量将出现反弹。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This has been quite a year for many industries, and not only because of sales rebounds after so many businesses were temporarily shut down during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>对于许多行业来说，这是不平凡的一年，这不仅仅是因为在冠状病毒大流行的早期阶段，许多企业暂时关闭后，销售反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Unprecedented stimulus payments by the federal government to consumers have helped feed pent-up demand, and with component supply disruptions, the most obvious distortion has been seen on auto-dealer lots.</p><p><blockquote>联邦政府向消费者提供了前所未有的刺激付款，帮助满足了被压抑的需求，而随着零部件供应中断，最明显的扭曲出现在汽车经销商地段。</blockquote></p><p> This is why David Dineen, the chief investment officer for global small-cap at Spouting Rock Asset Management, believes that three large auto-dealer chains are well-positioned for stock-price gains in 2022 and beyond.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么Spouting Rock Asset Management全球小盘股首席投资官David Dineen认为，三家大型汽车经销商连锁店在2022年及以后的股价上涨中处于有利地位。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are coming off trough sales for this economic cycle\" for new cars, he said during an interview.</p><p><blockquote>他在接受采访时表示，“我们正在摆脱这个经济周期的新车销售低谷”。</blockquote></p><p> Spouting Rock Asset Management is based in Bryn Mawr, Penn., and has $3.1 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>Spouting Rock资产管理公司总部位于宾夕法尼亚州布林莫尔。，管理着31亿美元的资产。</blockquote></p><p> The supply shortage has led to a decline in sales of new cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units in October from a SAAR of 18. 8 million in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.</p><p><blockquote>根据经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）的数据，供应短缺导致10月份新车和轻型卡车的季节性调整年化销量（SAAR）从4月份的1880万辆下降至1440万辆。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/660899263cc0cb8c6b1065cb36f440ed\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>圣路易斯联邦储备银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Dineen described the October SAAR as \"a recessionary level,\" underscoring an opportunity for investors, because the auto dealers trade at lower valuations than auto manufacturers and parts suppliers.</p><p><blockquote>Dineen将10月份的SAAR描述为“衰退水平”，强调了投资者的机会，因为汽车经销商的估值低于汽车制造商和零部件供应商。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad 'comps' for many industries in 2022</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2022年许多行业的“业绩”不佳</b></blockquote></p><p> When covering financial results, Wall Street analysts and the financial media are fixated on year-over-year comparisons because of seasonality. But those \"comps\" can paint a confusing picture. For example, an industry whose sales dropped during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 might have shown stellar \"improvement\" a year later, even if its sales hadn't come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在报道财务业绩时，由于季节性，华尔街分析师和财经媒体专注于同比比较。但是这些“comps”可能会描绘出一幅令人困惑的画面。例如，一个在2020年第一季度冠状病毒大流行初期销售额下降的行业可能在一年后表现出显著的“改善”，即使其销售额没有接近恢复到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Artificially high year-over-year increases in sales, profits or cash flow this year may be followed by much slower growth rates as business in various industries gets closer to pre-pandemic norms.</p><p><blockquote>随着各行业的业务越来越接近大流行前的正常水平，今年销售额、利润或现金流的同比增幅可能会大幅放缓。</blockquote></p><p> According to Dineen, \"you will have difficult comps for much of consumption in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>Dineen表示，“2022年的大部分消费都将面临困难的竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> And that's why he thinks large dealers who sell new cars are a good place for investors who wish to make another pandemic rebound play.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么他认为销售新车的大型经销商对于希望再次实现大流行反弹的投资者来说是一个好地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Low valuations for auto dealers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车经销商估值较低</b></blockquote></p><p> The auto dealers as a group have suffered a \"re-rating\" by investors as the shortage of new cars has caused sales to tumble, while creating upward price pressure and shortages of used cars.</p><p><blockquote>由于新车短缺导致销量暴跌，同时造成价格上涨压力和二手车短缺，汽车经销商作为一个群体遭受了投资者的“重新评级”。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate how this has affected stock valuations relative to earnings, we looked at the six auto dealers included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index (made up of the S&P 500 , the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MID\">$(MID)$</a> and the S&P Small Cap Index ). Here's how forward price-to-earnings ratios for the six car dealers have moved since the end of 2019:</p><p><blockquote>为了说明这如何影响股票相对于收益的估值，我们研究了标准普尔1500综合指数（由标普500、标准普尔400中型股指数组成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MID\">$（中）$</a>和标准普尔小型股指数）。以下是自2019年底以来这六家汽车经销商的远期市盈率的变化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ec20c1ad0523f6b145b3790bf9339a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"571\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The forward P/E ratios are based on rolling 12-month earnings estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.</p><p><blockquote>远期市盈率基于FactSet调查的分析师滚动12个月盈利预测。单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。单击此处，在MarketWatch报价页面上免费获取Tomi Kilgore丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p> The exception to downward P/E movement for these dealers has been CarMax Inc..</p><p><blockquote>这些经销商市盈率下降的例外是CarMax Inc..</blockquote></p><p> \"CarMax has had the most leverage to the used car market, which has been on fire,\" Dineen said. The five other dealers on the chart sell both new and used vehicles. Looking ahead over the next two years, as the supply chain presumably recovers and new-car production rebounds, he favors <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">AutoNation</a> Inc. (AN), Asbury Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABG\">$(ABG)$</a>, and Sonic Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$(SAH)$</a> for an increase in P/E ratios and share prices.</p><p><blockquote>“CarMax对火热的二手车市场拥有最大的影响力，”Dineen说。图表上的其他五家经销商销售新车和二手车。展望未来两年，随着供应链可能复苏和新车产量反弹，他看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AN\">自治</a>公司(AN)、阿斯伯里汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABG\">$(ABG)$</a>和索尼克汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAH\">$（有效）$</a>市盈率和股价的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> For CarMax, comparisons may get \"slippery\" over the next two years, if a return to 2019 or 2020 sales levels for new cars causes the used-car market to cool, Dineen said.</p><p><blockquote>Dineen表示，对于CarMax来说，如果新车销量恢复到2019年或2020年的水平导致二手车市场降温，未来两年的比较可能会变得“不稳定”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's an easier way to compare current forward P/E ratios for the six dealers in the Composite 1500 to their pre-pandemic levels. The list is sorted by market capitalization:</p><p><blockquote>这里有一种更简单的方法可以将综合1500指数中六家经销商当前的远期市盈率与其大流行前的水平进行比较。榜单按市值排序：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e22b35add96d4e81a058b94ed441a07b\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"423\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> In contrast to the three dealers he favors (AutoNation, Asbury and Sonic), Dineen pointed out that Ford Motor Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 9.8, while General Motors Co. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a> trades at a forward P/E of 8.7. Meanwhile, auto-parts retailers trade much higher, with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORLY\">$(ORLY)$</a> at a forward P/E of 21.6, AutoZone Inc. at 18.3 and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">Advance Auto Parts Inc</a>. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP.AU\">$(AAP.AU)$</a> at 17.4.</p><p><blockquote>与他青睐的三家经销商（AutoNation、Asbury和Sonic）相比，迪宁指出，福特汽车公司。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$(F)$</a>通用汽车公司(General Motors Co.)的预期市盈率为9.8。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">$(GM)$</a>远期市盈率为8.7。与此同时，汽车零部件零售商的交易价格大幅上涨，其中O’Reilly Automotive Inc.。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORLY\">$（奥利）$</a>AutoZone Inc.的预期市盈率为21.6，为18.3，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP\">先进汽车零部件公司</a>.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAP.AU\">$(AAP.AU)$</a>在17.4。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wall Street's view</b></p><p><blockquote><b>华尔街的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales for the six dealers, based on consensus estimates through calendar 2023 among analysts polled by FactSet. Sales numbers are in millions.</p><p><blockquote>以下是这六家经销商的预期复合年增长率(CAGR)，基于FactSet调查的分析师对2023年的一致估计。销售数字以百万计。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d968e14be726da45e216a570cf2611\" tg-width=\"1096\" tg-height=\"418\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion among brokerage firms' analysts polled by FactSet:</p><p><blockquote>以下是FactSet调查的经纪公司分析师的观点摘要：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dcc4a4bba95e6f9cf88346a9f93ed4a\" tg-width=\"1099\" tg-height=\"513\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> </p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p> CarMax has 61% \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. However, the stock is close to its target price. The analysts see high double-digit upside for all the others, even though only a third rate AutoNation a buy.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax拥有61%的“买入”或同等评级。然而，该股接近其目标价。分析师认为所有其他公司都有两位数的上涨空间，尽管只有三流AutoNation值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How does Tesla fit in?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特斯拉是如何融入的？</b></blockquote></p><p> When asked about the long-term viability of new-car dealers, in light of Tesla Inc.'s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a> non-dealer distribution model for its electric vehicles, Dineen said: \"What really matters to us is valuation.\"</p><p><blockquote>当被问及新车经销商的长期生存能力时，鉴于特斯拉公司的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$(TSLA)$</a>对于其电动汽车的非经销商分销模式，迪宁表示：“对我们来说真正重要的是估值。”</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no question that Tesla is an awesome company,\" he said, but he added that Tesla's stock is \"priced to win 100% of electric-vehicle sales.\"</p><p><blockquote>“毫无疑问，特斯拉是一家很棒的公司，”他说，但他补充说，特斯拉的股票“定价将赢得100%的电动汽车销量”。</blockquote></p><p> \"When we look at automotive in general, we think the dealers make the most sense,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“当我们总体审视汽车行业时，我们认为经销商最有意义，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sales-surge-might-make-this-industry-your-best-stock-market-play-for-2022-11638884309?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KMX":"车美仕","AN":"车之国公司","LAD":"利西亚车行","TSLA":"特斯拉","ABG":"阿斯伯里汽车集团","SAH":"索尼克汽车","GPI":"汽车一组"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-sales-surge-might-make-this-industry-your-best-stock-market-play-for-2022-11638884309?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190200176","content_text":"For many industries, year-over-year comparisons won't look pretty in 2022. But there's likely to be one glaring exception.\nDavid Dineen of Spouting Rock Asset Management favors stocks of three large auto-dealer chains, including AutoNation, for a rebound in new-car sales as supply shortages subside.\nThis has been quite a year for many industries, and not only because of sales rebounds after so many businesses were temporarily shut down during the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.\nUnprecedented stimulus payments by the federal government to consumers have helped feed pent-up demand, and with component supply disruptions, the most obvious distortion has been seen on auto-dealer lots.\nThis is why David Dineen, the chief investment officer for global small-cap at Spouting Rock Asset Management, believes that three large auto-dealer chains are well-positioned for stock-price gains in 2022 and beyond.\n\"We are coming off trough sales for this economic cycle\" for new cars, he said during an interview.\nSpouting Rock Asset Management is based in Bryn Mawr, Penn., and has $3.1 billion in assets under management.\nThe supply shortage has led to a decline in sales of new cars and light trucks to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million units in October from a SAAR of 18. 8 million in April, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.\nFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis\nDineen described the October SAAR as \"a recessionary level,\" underscoring an opportunity for investors, because the auto dealers trade at lower valuations than auto manufacturers and parts suppliers.\nBad 'comps' for many industries in 2022\nWhen covering financial results, Wall Street analysts and the financial media are fixated on year-over-year comparisons because of seasonality. But those \"comps\" can paint a confusing picture. For example, an industry whose sales dropped during the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020 might have shown stellar \"improvement\" a year later, even if its sales hadn't come close to recovering to pre-pandemic levels.\nArtificially high year-over-year increases in sales, profits or cash flow this year may be followed by much slower growth rates as business in various industries gets closer to pre-pandemic norms.\nAccording to Dineen, \"you will have difficult comps for much of consumption in 2022.\"\nAnd that's why he thinks large dealers who sell new cars are a good place for investors who wish to make another pandemic rebound play.\nLow valuations for auto dealers\nThe auto dealers as a group have suffered a \"re-rating\" by investors as the shortage of new cars has caused sales to tumble, while creating upward price pressure and shortages of used cars.\nTo illustrate how this has affected stock valuations relative to earnings, we looked at the six auto dealers included in the S&P 1500 Composite Index (made up of the S&P 500 , the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index $(MID)$ and the S&P Small Cap Index ). Here's how forward price-to-earnings ratios for the six car dealers have moved since the end of 2019:\nFactSet\nThe forward P/E ratios are based on rolling 12-month earnings estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore's detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.\nThe exception to downward P/E movement for these dealers has been CarMax Inc..\n\"CarMax has had the most leverage to the used car market, which has been on fire,\" Dineen said. The five other dealers on the chart sell both new and used vehicles. Looking ahead over the next two years, as the supply chain presumably recovers and new-car production rebounds, he favors AutoNation Inc. (AN), Asbury Automotive Inc. $(ABG)$, and Sonic Automotive Inc. $(SAH)$ for an increase in P/E ratios and share prices.\nFor CarMax, comparisons may get \"slippery\" over the next two years, if a return to 2019 or 2020 sales levels for new cars causes the used-car market to cool, Dineen said.\nHere's an easier way to compare current forward P/E ratios for the six dealers in the Composite 1500 to their pre-pandemic levels. The list is sorted by market capitalization:\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIn contrast to the three dealers he favors (AutoNation, Asbury and Sonic), Dineen pointed out that Ford Motor Co. $(F)$ trades at a forward P/E of 9.8, while General Motors Co. $(GM)$ trades at a forward P/E of 8.7. Meanwhile, auto-parts retailers trade much higher, with O'Reilly Automotive Inc. $(ORLY)$ at a forward P/E of 21.6, AutoZone Inc. at 18.3 and Advance Auto Parts Inc. $(AAP.AU)$ at 17.4.\nWall Street's view\nHere are expected compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales for the six dealers, based on consensus estimates through calendar 2023 among analysts polled by FactSet. Sales numbers are in millions.\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nHere's a summary of opinion among brokerage firms' analysts polled by FactSet:\nSource: FactSet\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nCarMax has 61% \"buy\" or equivalent ratings. However, the stock is close to its target price. The analysts see high double-digit upside for all the others, even though only a third rate AutoNation a buy.\nHow does Tesla fit in?\nWhen asked about the long-term viability of new-car dealers, in light of Tesla Inc.'s $(TSLA)$ non-dealer distribution model for its electric vehicles, Dineen said: \"What really matters to us is valuation.\"\n\"There is no question that Tesla is an awesome company,\" he said, but he added that Tesla's stock is \"priced to win 100% of electric-vehicle sales.\"\n\"When we look at automotive in general, we think the dealers make the most sense,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ABG":0.9,"KMX":0.9,"SAH":0.9,"LAD":0.9,"GPI":0.9,"AN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2276,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/604618286"}
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