风筝_3343
09-07
光讲股息率不讲股价的波动很不好
腾讯、茅台、泡泡玛特，段永平最新这样说
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>什么时候股息率能够达到10%以上？</p><p>大道：我对什么时候这种事情从来都不擅长的。(2026.8.24)</p><p>网友2：段哥说了，跟机会成本比就行，你存银行年化1.85%的利息，买房出租可能有4%，但是有房产老化减值风险，并且费心费力，现在茅台已经有4%风险不大的股息率，你还在纠结啥呢？</p><p><strong>3.关于加杠杆：并不会让人感受到快乐</strong></p><p>大道：给你一个有钱不快乐的例子吧：我认识一个人，从2万美金开始炒股，大概20年炒到了二十亿美金身价。他一直用大量的margin，所以一直都很紧张，很难快乐起来。</p><p>上次金融风暴一下子就差点打回原形了，还好当时他身手敏捷，一个上午清光了所有股票，保住了一点种子(大概一个亿出头，依然还是很有钱的)。其实有钱人也是可以有很多办法让自己不快乐的。(2026.9.4)</p><p><strong>4.关于西方石油：基本上都已经卖了call</strong></p><p>网友：很多人以为抄作业就是抄个代码，其实真正能抄对的前提，是你打心底里认同那个做决定的人。大道当年跟着巴菲特买石油，理由特别实在：“我不懂石油，但我懂老巴。”说白了，如果你看不懂这门生意，那你至少得看懂这个人，否则你根本拿不住。</p><p>大道：即便如此，西方石油我也拿着不舒服，毕竟自己不懂，有机会也会卖掉的。我基本上都已经卖了call，就看懂王怎么表现了。(2026.8.29)</p><p><strong>5.关于人形机器人：无法理解人形必要性</strong></p><p>网友：您觉得人形机器人未来会像冰箱，彩电，汽车一样成为一种新的家用电器么？似乎近些年来，人类科技的发展更加迅猛了呢。</p><p>大道：哪些年不是呢？科技进步一直都是迅猛的啊！？当年蒙古骑兵横扫欧洲其实就是因为发明了马鞍，那就是最先进的科技啊！我还没看懂人形机器人，不知道为什么非要人形，这个听着像是营销。(2026.8.29)</p><p>我不是很理解这点。现有基础设施上的机器人为什么不可以有三条腿甚至四条腿，为什么不能有更多手？我只是好奇，不是挑战的意思。我并不是觉得那是噱头，但确实不是很理解。也许我太实用主义了，也许人形会有很大的情绪价值的。(2026.8.30)</p><p><strong>6.关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">万科</a>：看不懂债务和体外循环，不懂不碰就好</strong></p><p>网友1：万科没倒的时候网上还好多人晒长期拿万科的收益呢。</p><p>大道：我是买过万科的，但很多年前就不再碰了。这不是巧合！理解生意很重要的。</p><p>网友2：记得当时你还说过万科负债挺高的，还举了一个美国房地产起死回生的例子，万科负责人好像说他们想发展快一点啥的，大家都这样，然后就然后...</p><p>大道：我看不懂他们的债务和体外循环。不懂不碰就好。(2026.8.30)</p><p>网友援引大道历史言论：每个公司都有负债吗？每个“公司”都应该负债吗？每个房地产公司都应该负债吗？我记得美国有一家房地产公司，叫“NVR”，曾经因为太多负债而差一点破产，股票掉到过0.2/股。</p><p>后来侥幸活过来以后就再也不借钱了，几十年以后的现在的股价大概在$700/股上下。你再看看美国现在其他的房地产行业的公司。如果万科没负债，我会给他们加很多分，但他们不懂，他们想快点发展嘛。(2011.9.26)</p><p><strong>7.关于腾讯：目标是总股本1%</strong></p><p>网友1：大道在过去的几个月可能把腾讯陆续卖了换成泡泡玛特了？</p><p>大道：那么小看大道？</p><p>网友2：大道都说要买1%的腾讯，咋大家还一直说卖？</p><p>大道：1%的腾讯大概400亿出头。我确实没有过这么多。(2026.8.23)</p><p>网友3：外界过度放大了段永平的腾讯持仓，他觉得自己对腾讯的生意理解深度不够，只会慢慢分批布局，不会急于重仓。目标终极是慢慢通过卖Put+正股，拿到腾讯总股本的1%，但目前远远没到。</p><p><strong>8.关于茅台：现在的茅台更理性了</strong></p><p>网友1：从茅台半年报数据看，系列酒营收大幅下滑，非标价格下跌也拖累了不少，几乎全靠飞天放量支撑稳住了，而且i茅台增速特别快。</p><p>感觉是i茅台和飞天托住了茅台，这是大道说的“i茅台会再造一个茅台”以及“茅台就是那个53度飞天”的意思吗？</p><p>大道：我猜这个说明茅台开始不搭配系列酒了吧？这是个非常理智的选择，长期有利于健康。现在的茅台更理性了。(2026.8.15)</p><p>网友2：大道一语道破<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01520\">天机</a>，茅台这两个季度的财务其实是非常健康的，一个是不搭配系列酒了，二是不要求销售高端酒了，完全交给市场先生自由选择。</p><p>所以，今年的财报是100%真实的财报，是非常健康的，这就是目前茅台的现状，能接受吗？当然！明年大概率还是涨价，飞天供不应求。</p><p>大道：是的，现在的茅台更理性了。(2026.8.16)</p><p>网友3：最近看茅台，有一个长期困惑：茅台拥有顶级现金流和商业模式，我个人认为它现在只是在正经历一轮严肃的“库存下行周期”。</p><p>想请教您，在您的视角里，像茅台这种强品牌壁垒的公司，它的“周期”与普通制造业(如周期股)的周期，本质上有什么区别？</p><p>大道：茅台还是那家茅台啊！你看看我都说过啥了？(2026.8.20)</p><p>网友4：我是2009买的茅台一直拿到现在，这一路过来确实不容易，不过我总是想是什么资产我可以放心拿一辈子，想来想去最放心的还是茅台！</p><p>大道：哈，有啥不容易的？股价掉了么？你就当买了个房子一直在收租，根本就不知道能卖多少钱就好。</p><p>网友5：这个假设有点意思。现在买茅台，10年后会不会大概率也是这样。谢谢！</p><p>大道：除非经济特别火，不然未来10年再涨10倍的可能性不大，但大概率比拿着现金或者存银行要好。(2026.8.28)</p><p><strong>9.关于泡泡玛特：性价比极高的情绪价值</strong></p><p>大道：刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。(2026.8.27)</p><p>网友1：刚才看你的“刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。”没看明白，能进一步说明一下吗？</p><p>大道：Premium下降了很多， 投机的人少了。(2026.8.27)</p><p>网友2：段哥，现在买泡泡玛特，10年后涨10倍的概率大吗？</p><p>大道：你要想生意而不是股价有没有可能。股价是别人的事情，生意才是自己的。泡泡生意后面十年再涨10倍，那大概就是一年要赚150-180亿美金？看上去也不是没可能，有机会但不容易。(2026.8.28)</p><p>网友3：人们对游戏有许多误解，其中最大的误解就是认为游戏都是小孩在玩。其实，游戏的主要玩家是大人！沉迷于任何东西都是有害的，包括游戏，包括权利、金钱、烟酒等等很多很多东西。</p><p>大道：人们对游戏的误解其实是延伸到了泡泡玛特这类产品上的吧？好多人以为这是小孩子喜欢的东西，其实大多数玩家也是大人，像游戏一样。</p><p>人生其实就是在用时间换快乐(如果能够的话)，网络游戏和泡泡玛特能够提供的情绪价值其实可能是最便宜的那种了。(2026.9.2)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>","source":"stockstar","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>腾讯、茅台、泡泡玛特，段永平最新这样说</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n腾讯、茅台、泡泡玛特，段永平最新这样说\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1082532455\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e305640fc27210243042d09d3a7fa3f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">证券之星 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-09-04 17:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>今天的内容，我们继续聚焦段永平。</p><p>近日，段永平在网络平台(ID：大道无形我有型)持续输出观点，围绕好财报定义、加杠杆风险、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>、人形机器人、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>等话题和网友高频互动，金句频出，依旧是直白务实的风格。</p><p>大道的发言大多简短朴素，但穿透股价表象，落脚于生意本质、企业定性与长期风险的洞察颇为深刻。</p><p>本期，证星研究院整理汇总他近期的核心对话实录，分享给大家。</p><p><strong>以下为整理内容</strong></p><p><strong>1.好财报定义：看未来十年财报总和</strong></p><p>网友：段哥，有好商业模式和好企业文化的公司，财报大概率也会很好吗？</p><p>大道：财报早晚会好的，关键是你的“财报好”的定义是什么？某个季度吗？我对财报的定义是：未来十年财报的总和。(2026.8.24)</p><p><strong>2.对收益期望：不擅长预测时点，只和机会成本比较</strong></p><p>网友1：茅台和腾讯我都拿了4年左右了，我的理想状态是不看股价，只看分红。问题是按现在的分红率和股价，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a>什么时候股息率能够达到10%以上？</p><p>大道：我对什么时候这种事情从来都不擅长的。(2026.8.24)</p><p>网友2：段哥说了，跟机会成本比就行，你存银行年化1.85%的利息，买房出租可能有4%，但是有房产老化减值风险，并且费心费力，现在茅台已经有4%风险不大的股息率，你还在纠结啥呢？</p><p><strong>3.关于加杠杆：并不会让人感受到快乐</strong></p><p>大道：给你一个有钱不快乐的例子吧：我认识一个人，从2万美金开始炒股，大概20年炒到了二十亿美金身价。他一直用大量的margin，所以一直都很紧张，很难快乐起来。</p><p>上次金融风暴一下子就差点打回原形了，还好当时他身手敏捷，一个上午清光了所有股票，保住了一点种子(大概一个亿出头，依然还是很有钱的)。其实有钱人也是可以有很多办法让自己不快乐的。(2026.9.4)</p><p><strong>4.关于西方石油：基本上都已经卖了call</strong></p><p>网友：很多人以为抄作业就是抄个代码，其实真正能抄对的前提，是你打心底里认同那个做决定的人。大道当年跟着巴菲特买石油，理由特别实在：“我不懂石油，但我懂老巴。”说白了，如果你看不懂这门生意，那你至少得看懂这个人，否则你根本拿不住。</p><p>大道：即便如此，西方石油我也拿着不舒服，毕竟自己不懂，有机会也会卖掉的。我基本上都已经卖了call，就看懂王怎么表现了。(2026.8.29)</p><p><strong>5.关于人形机器人：无法理解人形必要性</strong></p><p>网友：您觉得人形机器人未来会像冰箱，彩电，汽车一样成为一种新的家用电器么？似乎近些年来，人类科技的发展更加迅猛了呢。</p><p>大道：哪些年不是呢？科技进步一直都是迅猛的啊！？当年蒙古骑兵横扫欧洲其实就是因为发明了马鞍，那就是最先进的科技啊！我还没看懂人形机器人，不知道为什么非要人形，这个听着像是营销。(2026.8.29)</p><p>我不是很理解这点。现有基础设施上的机器人为什么不可以有三条腿甚至四条腿，为什么不能有更多手？我只是好奇，不是挑战的意思。我并不是觉得那是噱头，但确实不是很理解。也许我太实用主义了，也许人形会有很大的情绪价值的。(2026.8.30)</p><p><strong>6.关于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02202\">万科</a>：看不懂债务和体外循环，不懂不碰就好</strong></p><p>网友1：万科没倒的时候网上还好多人晒长期拿万科的收益呢。</p><p>大道：我是买过万科的，但很多年前就不再碰了。这不是巧合！理解生意很重要的。</p><p>网友2：记得当时你还说过万科负债挺高的，还举了一个美国房地产起死回生的例子，万科负责人好像说他们想发展快一点啥的，大家都这样，然后就然后...</p><p>大道：我看不懂他们的债务和体外循环。不懂不碰就好。(2026.8.30)</p><p>网友援引大道历史言论：每个公司都有负债吗？每个“公司”都应该负债吗？每个房地产公司都应该负债吗？我记得美国有一家房地产公司，叫“NVR”，曾经因为太多负债而差一点破产，股票掉到过0.2/股。</p><p>后来侥幸活过来以后就再也不借钱了，几十年以后的现在的股价大概在$700/股上下。你再看看美国现在其他的房地产行业的公司。如果万科没负债，我会给他们加很多分，但他们不懂，他们想快点发展嘛。(2011.9.26)</p><p><strong>7.关于腾讯：目标是总股本1%</strong></p><p>网友1：大道在过去的几个月可能把腾讯陆续卖了换成泡泡玛特了？</p><p>大道：那么小看大道？</p><p>网友2：大道都说要买1%的腾讯，咋大家还一直说卖？</p><p>大道：1%的腾讯大概400亿出头。我确实没有过这么多。(2026.8.23)</p><p>网友3：外界过度放大了段永平的腾讯持仓，他觉得自己对腾讯的生意理解深度不够，只会慢慢分批布局，不会急于重仓。目标终极是慢慢通过卖Put+正股，拿到腾讯总股本的1%，但目前远远没到。</p><p><strong>8.关于茅台：现在的茅台更理性了</strong></p><p>网友1：从茅台半年报数据看，系列酒营收大幅下滑，非标价格下跌也拖累了不少，几乎全靠飞天放量支撑稳住了，而且i茅台增速特别快。</p><p>感觉是i茅台和飞天托住了茅台，这是大道说的“i茅台会再造一个茅台”以及“茅台就是那个53度飞天”的意思吗？</p><p>大道：我猜这个说明茅台开始不搭配系列酒了吧？这是个非常理智的选择，长期有利于健康。现在的茅台更理性了。(2026.8.15)</p><p>网友2：大道一语道破<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01520\">天机</a>，茅台这两个季度的财务其实是非常健康的，一个是不搭配系列酒了，二是不要求销售高端酒了，完全交给市场先生自由选择。</p><p>所以，今年的财报是100%真实的财报，是非常健康的，这就是目前茅台的现状，能接受吗？当然！明年大概率还是涨价，飞天供不应求。</p><p>大道：是的，现在的茅台更理性了。(2026.8.16)</p><p>网友3：最近看茅台，有一个长期困惑：茅台拥有顶级现金流和商业模式，我个人认为它现在只是在正经历一轮严肃的“库存下行周期”。</p><p>想请教您，在您的视角里，像茅台这种强品牌壁垒的公司，它的“周期”与普通制造业(如周期股)的周期，本质上有什么区别？</p><p>大道：茅台还是那家茅台啊！你看看我都说过啥了？(2026.8.20)</p><p>网友4：我是2009买的茅台一直拿到现在，这一路过来确实不容易，不过我总是想是什么资产我可以放心拿一辈子，想来想去最放心的还是茅台！</p><p>大道：哈，有啥不容易的？股价掉了么？你就当买了个房子一直在收租，根本就不知道能卖多少钱就好。</p><p>网友5：这个假设有点意思。现在买茅台，10年后会不会大概率也是这样。谢谢！</p><p>大道：除非经济特别火，不然未来10年再涨10倍的可能性不大，但大概率比拿着现金或者存银行要好。(2026.8.28)</p><p><strong>9.关于泡泡玛特：性价比极高的情绪价值</strong></p><p>大道：刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。(2026.8.27)</p><p>网友1：刚才看你的“刚刚试了一下价格，看来泡泡保险公司的生意也不好做了哈。”没看明白，能进一步说明一下吗？</p><p>大道：Premium下降了很多， 投机的人少了。(2026.8.27)</p><p>网友2：段哥，现在买泡泡玛特，10年后涨10倍的概率大吗？</p><p>大道：你要想生意而不是股价有没有可能。股价是别人的事情，生意才是自己的。泡泡生意后面十年再涨10倍，那大概就是一年要赚150-180亿美金？看上去也不是没可能，有机会但不容易。(2026.8.28)</p><p>网友3：人们对游戏有许多误解，其中最大的误解就是认为游戏都是小孩在玩。其实，游戏的主要玩家是大人！沉迷于任何东西都是有害的，包括游戏，包括权利、金钱、烟酒等等很多很多东西。</p><p>大道：人们对游戏的误解其实是延伸到了泡泡玛特这类产品上的吧？好多人以为这是小孩子喜欢的东西，其实大多数玩家也是大人，像游戏一样。</p><p>人生其实就是在用时间换快乐(如果能够的话)，网络游戏和泡泡玛特能够提供的情绪价值其实可能是最便宜的那种了。(2026.9.2)</p><p>PS:本文内容仅为观点分享，不做投资建议。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2293587155.HKD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1102505762.USD":"富达新兴市场焦点 A","BK0187":"一线龙头","BK0015":"沪股通50","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU0868486357.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities A (acc) 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