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2021-12-11

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Can Apple Stock Climb Another 45%? What History Says<blockquote>苹果股价能否再上涨 45%？历史怎么说</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":605291324,"tweetId":"605291324","gmtCreate":1639177802480,"gmtModify":1639177802701,"author":{"id":3577938728188071,"idStr":"3577938728188071","authorId":3577938728188071,"authorIdStr":"3577938728188071","name":"Melvin888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7e36200d6d8c6159f6d35c041d8e3e","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":25,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Good Apple!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Good Apple!</body></html>","text":"Good Apple!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605291324","repostId":1160142374,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160142374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639144465,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1160142374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Apple Stock Climb Another 45%? What History Says<blockquote>苹果股价能否再上涨 45%？历史怎么说</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160142374","media":"TheStreet","summary":"As it breaches $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time ever, Apple stock has produced 45% gains in the past year. Should investors expect similar performance over the next 12 months?Apple stock has surpassed $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time, and investors celebrate outstanding one-year returns of around 45%. Since the start of the iPhone era , AAPL has produced very solid, but still lower average one-year gains of 36%.Now, shareholders look forward. Is it reasonable to expect AAPL","content":"As it breaches $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time ever, Apple stock has produced 45% gains in the past year. Should investors expect similar performance over the next 12 months?<blockquote>苹果股价有史以来首次突破 2.9 万亿美元市值，去年上涨了 45%。投资者是否应该期待未来 12 个月的类似表现？</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;has surpassed $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time, and investors celebrate outstanding one-year returns of around 45%. Since the start of the iPhone era (i.e. 2007 to present), AAPL has produced very solid, but still lower average one-year gains of 36%.<blockquote>苹果股票市值首次突破 2.9 万亿美元，投资者庆祝约 45% 的出色一年回报率。自iPhone时代开始以来（即2007年至今），AAPL取得了非常稳健的业绩，但仍低于36%的平均年增长率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e746370f51d8b99a1b176c6863eb1b1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Apple store in Chongqing, China.<blockquote>图1：苹果重庆市店。</blockquote> Now, shareholders look forward. Is it reasonable to expect AAPL stock to climb another 45% until the end of 2022? Today, the Apple Maven sets aside business fundamentals for a moment and looks at what history has to say about this question.<blockquote>现在，股东们很期待。预计 AAPL 股价到 2022 年底再上涨 45% 是否合理？今天，这位苹果专家暂时抛开商业基本面，看看历史对这个问题的看法。</blockquote> What to expect of AAPL<blockquote>对 AAPL 有何期待</blockquote> I have written plenty about how Wall Street experts have recently taken sides on Apple stock. On the one hand,bulls see a strong holiday quarter&nbsp;of sales and growth opportunities in 2022. On the other hand, a few bears think that&nbsp;AAPL could be overpriced&nbsp;by nearly 20% due to slowing growth in a post-pandemic environment and shorter lead times on iPhones.<blockquote>我写了很多关于华尔街专家最近如何对苹果股票持偏见的文章。一方面， 多头认为 2022 年假日季度的销售和增长机会将强劲。另一方面，一些看空者认为，由于后大流行环境下增长放缓和 iPhone 交货时间缩短，AAPL 的定价可能会高出近 20%。</blockquote> But to understand if Apple shares could climb another 45% in the next 12 months, I turn to historical share price behavior. The gains observed in the past year may look outsized vs. the S&amp;P 500’s historical performance. But they are fairly standard for a stock like AAPL.<blockquote>但要了解苹果股价是否能在未来 12 个月内再上涨 45%，我转向历史股价行为。与标普500的历史表现相比，过去一年的收益可能显得过大。但对于苹果这样的股票来说，它们是相当标准的。</blockquote> The chart below shows the average gains produced by holding AAPL for 12 months, since the launch year of the first iPhone model. If the stock were bought on any given day, returns would have been 36%. If bought within 5% of peak prices, gains would have been much lower: 25%.<blockquote>下图显示了自第一款iPhone机型推出年份以来，持有AAPL 12个月产生的平均收益。如果在任何一天购买该股票，回报率将为 36%。如果在峰值价格的 5% 以内购买，涨幅会低得多：25%。</blockquote> Notice that the outsized gains earned from holding Apple stock for a year tend to come from buying shares after a steep 20%-plus drawdown. The last one happened in September 2020, and the previous one had been during the initial COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>请注意，持有苹果股票一年所获得的巨额利润往往来自在大幅下跌 20% 以上后购买股票。上一次发生在2020年9月，上一次发生在最初的新冠肺炎熊市期间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdba2437dc07efd8b0ae81f1b68a9ac\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: Average 1-year gains in AAPL since 2007.<blockquote>图 2：自 2007 年以来 AAPL 的平均 1 年收益。</blockquote> The chart above reinforces the idea that buying AAPL near peaks, as is the case today, has historically led to below average returns. Of course, these averages have still been much better than what an investor would have earned from buying and holding a diversified basket of stocks, like the S&amp;P 500 or even the Nasdaq.<blockquote>上图强化了这样一种观点，即在接近峰值时购买 AAPL（就像今天的情况一样）历史上会导致低于平均水平的回报。当然，这些平均值仍然比投资者从购买和持有标普500甚至纳斯达克等多元化一篮子股票中获得的收益要好得多。</blockquote> Averages only tell part of a story. Equally important, the range of outcomes has been very wide. For instance, buying AAPL near a peak in December 2007 would have resulted in massive loss of -57% over the following year. On the other hand, buying near the peak in January of the same year would have resulted in an impressive one-year gain of +128%.<blockquote>平均值只讲述了故事的一部分。同样重要的是，结果的范围非常广泛。例如，在 2007 年 12 月接近峰值时购买 AAPL 会导致第二年巨额亏损 -57%。另一方面，在同年1月接近峰值时买入会带来令人印象深刻的+128%的一年涨幅。</blockquote> Below is the distribution (histogram) of one-year returns in AAPL, when shares are bought near peaks. Again, the range of outcomes has been very wide. That said, typical gains have been roughly in the 20%-to-30% territory.<blockquote>下面是当股票在峰值附近购买时，AAPL 一年回报率的分布（直方图）。同样，结果的范围非常广泛。也就是说，典型的涨幅大约在 20% 到 30% 之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad9d93eed25fc47e9b5d7f45d4b354d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: Distribution of 1-year returns in AAPL, near peaks.<blockquote>图 3：AAPL 的 1 年回报分布，接近峰值。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s take<blockquote>苹果专家的看法</blockquote> Can AAPL rise another 45% in the next year? It sure can, even off its current peak levels. In fact, Apple shares have, in rare cases, more than doubled in price in 12 months even after trading near all-time highs.<blockquote>AAPL明年能否再上涨45%？它当然可以，即使低于目前的峰值水平。事实上，在极少数情况下，即使交易价格接近历史高点，苹果股价也在 12 个月内上涨了一倍多。</blockquote> However, for the sake of being conservative, I don’t think that investors should bet on something like it happening next. I think that more modest gains of 20% to 30% through December 2022, if reached, would already be considered outstanding.<blockquote>不过，为了保守起见，我认为投资者不应该押注接下来会发生类似的事情。我认为，到 2022 年 12 月，如果实现 20% 至 30% 的更温和涨幅，已经被认为是出色的。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Apple Stock Climb Another 45%? What History Says<blockquote>苹果股价能否再上涨 45%？历史怎么说</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Apple Stock Climb Another 45%? What History Says<blockquote>苹果股价能否再上涨 45%？历史怎么说</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nTheStreet2021-12-10 21:54\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAs it breaches $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time ever, Apple stock has produced 45% gains in the past year. Should investors expect similar performance over the next 12 months?<blockquote>苹果股价有史以来首次突破 2.9 万亿美元市值，去年上涨了 45%。投资者是否应该期待未来 12 个月的类似表现？</blockquote> Apple stock&nbsp;has surpassed $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time, and investors celebrate outstanding one-year returns of around 45%. Since the start of the iPhone era (i.e. 2007 to present), AAPL has produced very solid, but still lower average one-year gains of 36%.<blockquote>苹果股票市值首次突破 2.9 万亿美元，投资者庆祝约 45% 的出色一年回报率。自iPhone时代开始以来（即2007年至今），AAPL取得了非常稳健的业绩，但仍低于36%的平均年增长率。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e746370f51d8b99a1b176c6863eb1b1\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"696\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 1: Apple store in Chongqing, China.<blockquote>图1：苹果重庆市店。</blockquote> Now, shareholders look forward. Is it reasonable to expect AAPL stock to climb another 45% until the end of 2022? Today, the Apple Maven sets aside business fundamentals for a moment and looks at what history has to say about this question.<blockquote>现在，股东们很期待。预计 AAPL 股价到 2022 年底再上涨 45% 是否合理？今天，这位苹果专家暂时抛开商业基本面，看看历史对这个问题的看法。</blockquote> What to expect of AAPL<blockquote>对 AAPL 有何期待</blockquote> I have written plenty about how Wall Street experts have recently taken sides on Apple stock. On the one hand,bulls see a strong holiday quarter&nbsp;of sales and growth opportunities in 2022. On the other hand, a few bears think that&nbsp;AAPL could be overpriced&nbsp;by nearly 20% due to slowing growth in a post-pandemic environment and shorter lead times on iPhones.<blockquote>我写了很多关于华尔街专家最近如何对苹果股票持偏见的文章。一方面， 多头认为 2022 年假日季度的销售和增长机会将强劲。另一方面，一些看空者认为，由于后大流行环境下增长放缓和 iPhone 交货时间缩短，AAPL 的定价可能会高出近 20%。</blockquote> But to understand if Apple shares could climb another 45% in the next 12 months, I turn to historical share price behavior. The gains observed in the past year may look outsized vs. the S&amp;P 500’s historical performance. But they are fairly standard for a stock like AAPL.<blockquote>但要了解苹果股价是否能在未来 12 个月内再上涨 45%，我转向历史股价行为。与标普500的历史表现相比，过去一年的收益可能显得过大。但对于苹果这样的股票来说，它们是相当标准的。</blockquote> The chart below shows the average gains produced by holding AAPL for 12 months, since the launch year of the first iPhone model. If the stock were bought on any given day, returns would have been 36%. If bought within 5% of peak prices, gains would have been much lower: 25%.<blockquote>下图显示了自第一款iPhone机型推出年份以来，持有AAPL 12个月产生的平均收益。如果在任何一天购买该股票，回报率将为 36%。如果在峰值价格的 5% 以内购买，涨幅会低得多：25%。</blockquote> Notice that the outsized gains earned from holding Apple stock for a year tend to come from buying shares after a steep 20%-plus drawdown. The last one happened in September 2020, and the previous one had been during the initial COVID-19 bear market.<blockquote>请注意，持有苹果股票一年所获得的巨额利润往往来自在大幅下跌 20% 以上后购买股票。上一次发生在2020年9月，上一次发生在最初的新冠肺炎熊市期间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdba2437dc07efd8b0ae81f1b68a9ac\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 2: Average 1-year gains in AAPL since 2007.<blockquote>图 2：自 2007 年以来 AAPL 的平均 1 年收益。</blockquote> The chart above reinforces the idea that buying AAPL near peaks, as is the case today, has historically led to below average returns. Of course, these averages have still been much better than what an investor would have earned from buying and holding a diversified basket of stocks, like the S&amp;P 500 or even the Nasdaq.<blockquote>上图强化了这样一种观点，即在接近峰值时购买 AAPL（就像今天的情况一样）历史上会导致低于平均水平的回报。当然，这些平均值仍然比投资者从购买和持有标普500甚至纳斯达克等多元化一篮子股票中获得的收益要好得多。</blockquote> Averages only tell part of a story. Equally important, the range of outcomes has been very wide. For instance, buying AAPL near a peak in December 2007 would have resulted in massive loss of -57% over the following year. On the other hand, buying near the peak in January of the same year would have resulted in an impressive one-year gain of +128%.<blockquote>平均值只讲述了故事的一部分。同样重要的是，结果的范围非常广泛。例如，在 2007 年 12 月接近峰值时购买 AAPL 会导致第二年巨额亏损 -57%。另一方面，在同年1月接近峰值时买入会带来令人印象深刻的+128%的一年涨幅。</blockquote> Below is the distribution (histogram) of one-year returns in AAPL, when shares are bought near peaks. Again, the range of outcomes has been very wide. That said, typical gains have been roughly in the 20%-to-30% territory.<blockquote>下面是当股票在峰值附近购买时，AAPL 一年回报率的分布（直方图）。同样，结果的范围非常广泛。也就是说，典型的涨幅大约在 20% 到 30% 之间。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad9d93eed25fc47e9b5d7f45d4b354d\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"528\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Figure 3: Distribution of 1-year returns in AAPL, near peaks.<blockquote>图 3：AAPL 的 1 年回报分布，接近峰值。</blockquote> The Apple Maven’s take<blockquote>苹果专家的看法</blockquote> Can AAPL rise another 45% in the next year? It sure can, even off its current peak levels. In fact, Apple shares have, in rare cases, more than doubled in price in 12 months even after trading near all-time highs.<blockquote>AAPL明年能否再上涨45%？它当然可以，即使低于目前的峰值水平。事实上，在极少数情况下，即使交易价格接近历史高点，苹果股价也在 12 个月内上涨了一倍多。</blockquote> However, for the sake of being conservative, I don’t think that investors should bet on something like it happening next. I think that more modest gains of 20% to 30% through December 2022, if reached, would already be considered outstanding.<blockquote>不过，为了保守起见，我认为投资者不应该押注接下来会发生类似的事情。我认为，到 2022 年 12 月，如果实现 20% 至 30% 的更温和涨幅，已经被认为是出色的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-climb-another-45-what-history-says\">TheStreet</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-climb-another-45-what-history-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160142374","content_text":"As it breaches $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time ever, Apple stock has produced 45% gains in the past year. Should investors expect similar performance over the next 12 months?\nApple stock has surpassed $2.9 trillion market cap for the first time, and investors celebrate outstanding one-year returns of around 45%. Since the start of the iPhone era (i.e. 2007 to present), AAPL has produced very solid, but still lower average one-year gains of 36%.\nFigure 1: Apple store in Chongqing, China.\nNow, shareholders look forward. Is it reasonable to expect AAPL stock to climb another 45% until the end of 2022? Today, the Apple Maven sets aside business fundamentals for a moment and looks at what history has to say about this question.\nWhat to expect of AAPL\nI have written plenty about how Wall Street experts have recently taken sides on Apple stock. On the one hand,bulls see a strong holiday quarter of sales and growth opportunities in 2022. On the other hand, a few bears think that AAPL could be overpriced by nearly 20% due to slowing growth in a post-pandemic environment and shorter lead times on iPhones.\nBut to understand if Apple shares could climb another 45% in the next 12 months, I turn to historical share price behavior. The gains observed in the past year may look outsized vs. the S&P 500’s historical performance. But they are fairly standard for a stock like AAPL.\nThe chart below shows the average gains produced by holding AAPL for 12 months, since the launch year of the first iPhone model. If the stock were bought on any given day, returns would have been 36%. If bought within 5% of peak prices, gains would have been much lower: 25%.\nNotice that the outsized gains earned from holding Apple stock for a year tend to come from buying shares after a steep 20%-plus drawdown. The last one happened in September 2020, and the previous one had been during the initial COVID-19 bear market.\nFigure 2: Average 1-year gains in AAPL since 2007.\nThe chart above reinforces the idea that buying AAPL near peaks, as is the case today, has historically led to below average returns. Of course, these averages have still been much better than what an investor would have earned from buying and holding a diversified basket of stocks, like the S&P 500 or even the Nasdaq.\nAverages only tell part of a story. Equally important, the range of outcomes has been very wide. For instance, buying AAPL near a peak in December 2007 would have resulted in massive loss of -57% over the following year. On the other hand, buying near the peak in January of the same year would have resulted in an impressive one-year gain of +128%.\nBelow is the distribution (histogram) of one-year returns in AAPL, when shares are bought near peaks. Again, the range of outcomes has been very wide. That said, typical gains have been roughly in the 20%-to-30% territory.\nFigure 3: Distribution of 1-year returns in AAPL, near peaks.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nCan AAPL rise another 45% in the next year? It sure can, even off its current peak levels. In fact, Apple shares have, in rare cases, more than doubled in price in 12 months even after trading near all-time highs.\nHowever, for the sake of being conservative, I don’t think that investors should bet on something like it happening next. I think that more modest gains of 20% to 30% through December 2022, if reached, would already be considered outstanding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605291324"}