BaldoRocks
2021-12-10
Opps
The Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌18%</blockquote>
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But while Wal","content":"<p>Apple stock (<b>AAPL</b>) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票(<b>AAPL</b>）继续无情地攀升至3万亿美元大关。不过，尽管华尔街仍对该公司给予“强力买入”的一致评级，但并非所有分析师都认为AAPL将在可预见的未来从目前174美元的峰值攀升。</blockquote></p><p> In the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，两位对苹果持中立立场的专家发表了讲话。其中一人认为该股每股价值仅为142美元，较当前水平下跌18%。这就是这些分析师持怀疑态度的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple stock rises, but so do risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价上涨，但风险也随之上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)曾是空头，几个月前认输，将对苹果公司的仓位从卖出改为中性。然而，据TipRanks称，该分析师刚刚重申了苹果股票142美元的目标价，指出在过去几周令人印象深刻的上涨之后，下行风险为18%。</blockquote></p><p> During a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在最近接受CNBC采访时，霍尔先生解释说，他对AAPL持谨慎态度，主要是因为该公司的用户群和每个用户产生的平均收入。首先，他认为用户增长将放缓至GDP水平。其次，Rod认为ARPU（每用户平均收入）在疫情最严重期间飙升20%后将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛（Goldman Sachs）通过观察假期期间美国、欧洲和中国iPhone交付时间的缩短可能是需求放缓的迹象，总结了其不那么乐观的观点。理由是：如果2021年供应受到限制并且交货时间缩短，那么这个等式中缺失的部分可能是对设备需求的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷是最近在苹果上发表文章的另一家研究机构。分析师萨米·巴德里(Sami Badri)接受了马修·卡布拉尔(Matthew Cabral)的报道，并有机会将该银行对苹果公司的评级从中性改变。相反，他强化了这一建议，并将目标价定为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.</p><p><blockquote>巴德里的前任经常将较长的交货时间视为需求压倒供应的迹象。随着供需动态现在接近平衡状态，这在短期内对苹果来说可能是个坏消息——尤其是在彭博社报道这家库比蒂诺公司可能在假期期间超额订购了iPhone几天后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果·梅文的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，随着苹果股价走高，更多针对苹果公司的看跌案例可能会浮出水面。虽然我认为这里反对投资的论点往往过于依赖近期风险（例如第一财季的iPhone销量），但对于一只继续无情攀升且估值倍数不断扩大的股票，还是有一些话要说的。</blockquote></p><p> I maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.</p><p><blockquote>我维持对苹果公司的看法：该股似乎是长期买入并持有的股票，首先考虑服务业的增长机会，然后考虑全新设备的增长机会——想想混合现实和自动驾驶电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，苹果股票在大幅回调后往往表现得更好。因此，我认为今天购买股票的投资者不应该指望未来会有类似2020年的巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌18%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock (<b>AAPL</b>) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票(<b>AAPL</b>）继续无情地攀升至3万亿美元大关。不过，尽管华尔街仍对该公司给予“强力买入”的一致评级，但并非所有分析师都认为AAPL将在可预见的未来从目前174美元的峰值攀升。</blockquote></p><p> In the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，两位对苹果持中立立场的专家发表了讲话。其中一人认为该股每股价值仅为142美元，较当前水平下跌18%。这就是这些分析师持怀疑态度的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple stock rises, but so do risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价上涨，但风险也随之上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>高盛(Goldman Sachs)的罗德·霍尔(Rod Hall)曾是空头，几个月前认输，将对苹果公司的仓位从卖出改为中性。然而，据TipRanks称，该分析师刚刚重申了苹果股票142美元的目标价，指出在过去几周令人印象深刻的上涨之后，下行风险为18%。</blockquote></p><p> During a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在最近接受CNBC采访时，霍尔先生解释说，他对AAPL持谨慎态度，主要是因为该公司的用户群和每个用户产生的平均收入。首先，他认为用户增长将放缓至GDP水平。其次，Rod认为ARPU（每用户平均收入）在疫情最严重期间飙升20%后将趋于稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛（Goldman Sachs）通过观察假期期间美国、欧洲和中国iPhone交付时间的缩短可能是需求放缓的迹象，总结了其不那么乐观的观点。理由是：如果2021年供应受到限制并且交货时间缩短，那么这个等式中缺失的部分可能是对设备需求的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷是最近在苹果上发表文章的另一家研究机构。分析师萨米·巴德里(Sami Badri)接受了马修·卡布拉尔(Matthew Cabral)的报道，并有机会将该银行对苹果公司的评级从中性改变。相反，他强化了这一建议，并将目标价定为150美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.</p><p><blockquote>巴德里的前任经常将较长的交货时间视为需求压倒供应的迹象。随着供需动态现在接近平衡状态，这在短期内对苹果来说可能是个坏消息——尤其是在彭博社报道这家库比蒂诺公司可能在假期期间超额订购了iPhone几天后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果·梅文的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，随着苹果股价走高，更多针对苹果公司的看跌案例可能会浮出水面。虽然我认为这里反对投资的论点往往过于依赖近期风险（例如第一财季的iPhone销量），但对于一只继续无情攀升且估值倍数不断扩大的股票，还是有一些话要说的。</blockquote></p><p> I maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.</p><p><blockquote>我维持对苹果公司的看法：该股似乎是长期买入并持有的股票，首先考虑服务业的增长机会，然后考虑全新设备的增长机会——想想混合现实和自动驾驶电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，苹果股票在大幅回调后往往表现得更好。因此，我认为今天购买股票的投资者不应该指望未来会有类似2020年的巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/the-bears-have-spoken-apple-stock-could-drop-18\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/the-bears-have-spoken-apple-stock-could-drop-18","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153652287","content_text":"Apple stock (AAPL) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.\nIn the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.\nApple stock rises, but so do risks\nGoldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.\nDuring a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.\nGoldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.\nCredit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.\nMr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.\nApple Maven’s take\nI believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.\nI maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.\nThat said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2332,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605323282"}
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