BaldoRocks
2021-12-10
Opps
The Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌 18%</blockquote>
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But while Wal","content":"<p>Apple stock (<b>AAPL</b>) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）继续向 3 万亿美元大关攀升。不过，虽然华尔街对苹果公司的一致评级仍为 “强力买入 ”，但并非所有分析师都认为，在可预见的未来，苹果公司的股价会从目前 174 美元的峰值攀升。</blockquote></p><p> In the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几天里，两位对苹果持中立立场的专家发表了讲话。其中一位认为，该股票每股价值仅为 142 美元，较当前水平下跌 18%。这就是这些分析师持怀疑态度的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple stock rises, but so do risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价上涨，但风险也随之上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>高盛（Goldman Sachs）的罗德-霍尔（Rod Hall）曾是一名看空者，几个月前他认输了，将苹果公司的头寸从卖出改为中性。然而，据 toTipRanks 称，这位分析师刚刚重申了苹果股票 142 美元的目标价，指出在过去几周令人印象深刻的上涨之后，下行风险为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> During a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在最近接受 CNBC 采访时，霍尔先生解释说，他对 AAPL 持谨慎态度，主要是因为该公司的用户群和每个用户的平均收入。首先，他认为用户增长放缓至GDP水平。其次，Rod 认为 ARPU（每用户平均收入）将趋于稳定，他估计在疫情最严重的时期飙升了令人印象深刻的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛总结了其不太乐观的观点，指出假期期间美国、欧洲和中国 iPhone 交货时间的缩短可能是需求放缓的迹象。基本原理：如果 2021 年供应受到限制，交货时间缩短，那么这个等式中缺少的部分可能是设备需求的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷是最近在苹果上发表文章的另一家研究公司。分析师萨米-巴德里（Sami Badri）接受了马修-卡布拉尔（Matthew Cabral）的报道，并有机会将该银行对 AAPL 的评级从中性改为中性。相反，他强化了建议，并将目标价定为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.</p><p><blockquote>巴德里先生的前任经常引用更长的交货时间作为需求超过供应的标志。随着供需动态接近平衡状态，这在短期内对苹果来说可能是个坏消息--尤其是在彭博社报道这家库比蒂诺公司可能在假期期间超量订购了 iPhone 之后的几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果·马文的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，随着苹果股价走高，更多针对苹果公司的看跌案例可能会浮出水面。虽然我认为反对投资的论点往往过于依赖近期风险（例如第一财季的 iPhone 销量），但对于一只继续无情攀升和估值倍数不断扩大的股票，还是有话要说。</blockquote></p><p> I maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.</p><p><blockquote>我坚持对 AAPL 的看法：考虑到首先是服务领域的增长机会，然后是全新设备——想想混合现实和自动驾驶电动汽车，该股似乎是长期买入并持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，苹果股票在大幅回调后往往表现要好得多。因此，我认为今天购买股票的投资者不应该指望未来会获得类似 2020 年的巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌 18%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bears Have Spoken: Apple Stock Could Drop 18%<blockquote>空头发声：苹果股价可能下跌 18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-10 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock (<b>AAPL</b>) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）继续向 3 万亿美元大关攀升。不过，虽然华尔街对苹果公司的一致评级仍为 “强力买入 ”，但并非所有分析师都认为，在可预见的未来，苹果公司的股价会从目前 174 美元的峰值攀升。</blockquote></p><p> In the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几天里，两位对苹果持中立立场的专家发表了讲话。其中一位认为，该股票每股价值仅为 142 美元，较当前水平下跌 18%。这就是这些分析师持怀疑态度的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple stock rises, but so do risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价上涨，但风险也随之上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>高盛（Goldman Sachs）的罗德-霍尔（Rod Hall）曾是一名看空者，几个月前他认输了，将苹果公司的头寸从卖出改为中性。然而，据 toTipRanks 称，这位分析师刚刚重申了苹果股票 142 美元的目标价，指出在过去几周令人印象深刻的上涨之后，下行风险为 18%。</blockquote></p><p> During a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在最近接受 CNBC 采访时，霍尔先生解释说，他对 AAPL 持谨慎态度，主要是因为该公司的用户群和每个用户的平均收入。首先，他认为用户增长放缓至GDP水平。其次，Rod 认为 ARPU（每用户平均收入）将趋于稳定，他估计在疫情最严重的时期飙升了令人印象深刻的 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.</p><p><blockquote>高盛总结了其不太乐观的观点，指出假期期间美国、欧洲和中国 iPhone 交货时间的缩短可能是需求放缓的迹象。基本原理：如果 2021 年供应受到限制，交货时间缩短，那么这个等式中缺少的部分可能是设备需求的下降。</blockquote></p><p> Credit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷是最近在苹果上发表文章的另一家研究公司。分析师萨米-巴德里（Sami Badri）接受了马修-卡布拉尔（Matthew Cabral）的报道，并有机会将该银行对 AAPL 的评级从中性改为中性。相反，他强化了建议，并将目标价定为 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.</p><p><blockquote>巴德里先生的前任经常引用更长的交货时间作为需求超过供应的标志。随着供需动态接近平衡状态，这在短期内对苹果来说可能是个坏消息--尤其是在彭博社报道这家库比蒂诺公司可能在假期期间超量订购了 iPhone 之后的几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果·马文的观点</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，随着苹果股价走高，更多针对苹果公司的看跌案例可能会浮出水面。虽然我认为反对投资的论点往往过于依赖近期风险（例如第一财季的 iPhone 销量），但对于一只继续无情攀升和估值倍数不断扩大的股票，还是有话要说。</blockquote></p><p> I maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.</p><p><blockquote>我坚持对 AAPL 的看法：考虑到首先是服务领域的增长机会，然后是全新设备——想想混合现实和自动驾驶电动汽车，该股似乎是长期买入并持有的股票。</blockquote></p><p> That said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，苹果股票在大幅回调后往往表现要好得多。因此，我认为今天购买股票的投资者不应该指望未来会获得类似 2020 年的巨额回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/the-bears-have-spoken-apple-stock-could-drop-18\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/the-bears-have-spoken-apple-stock-could-drop-18","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153652287","content_text":"Apple stock (AAPL) continues to climb relentlessly on its way to the $3 trillion mark. But while Wall Street still has a “strong buy” consensus rating on the name, not every analyst believes that AAPL will climb from its current peak of $174 in the foreseeable future.\nIn the past couple of days, two experts who hold a neutral stance on Apple have spoken. One of them believes that the stock is worth only $142 apiece, suggesting 18% downside from current levels. Here is why these analysts are skeptical.\nApple stock rises, but so do risks\nGoldman Sachs’ Rod Hall is a former bear who threw in the towel a few months ago and changed his position on AAPL from sell to neutral. However, according toTipRanks, the analyst has just restated his $142 price target on Apple stock, pointing at 18% downside risk following the impressive rally of the past few weeks.\nDuring a recent CNBC interview, Mr. Hall explained that he is cautious about AAPL mostly due to the company’s user base and average revenue generated per user. First, he sees subscriber growth slowing down to GDP levels. Second, Rod thinks that ARPU (average revenue per user) will stabilize, after spiking by what he estimates to be an impressive 20% during the thick of the pandemic.\nGoldman Sachs wraps up its not-so-bullish case by observing how a reduction in iPhone lead times in the US, Europe and China in the holiday period could be a sign of slowing demand. The rationale: if supply is constrained in 2021 and lead times have dropped, the missing piece in this equation is probably a decline in demand for the devices.\nCredit Suisse was the other research shop to publish recently on Apple. Analyst Sami Badri assumed coverage from Matthew Cabral, and had his chance to change the bank’s rating on AAPL from neutral. Instead, he reinforced the recommendation and set the price target at $150.\nMr. Badri’spredecessor has often cited longer lead times as an indication of demand overwhelming supply. With the supply-demand dynamic now heading closer to a state of balance, this could be bad news for Apple in the short term — especially days after Bloomberg’s report that the Cupertino company may have overordered iPhone units for the holiday period.\nApple Maven’s take\nI believe that more bearish cases against AAPL could surface as Apple stock moves higher. While I think that the argument against an investment here tends to lean too heavily on near-term risks (e.g. iPhone sales in fiscal Q1), there is something to be said about a stock that continues to climb relentlessly and valuation multiples that keep expanding.\nI maintain my views on AAPL: the stock seems to be a buy-and-hold for the long term, considering growth opportunities in services at first and brand-new devices later — think mixed reality and autonomous EV.\nThat said, Apple stock tends to perform substantially better following a sharp pullback. Therefore, I think that investors that buy shares today should not count on oversized, 2020-like returns going forward.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3278,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605323282"}
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