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2021-12-10

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Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候购买道琼斯指数今年表现最差的 3 只股票了吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":605898639,"tweetId":"605898639","gmtCreate":1639140674029,"gmtModify":1639140674465,"author":{"id":3553254172092293,"idStr":"3553254172092293","authorId":3553254172092293,"authorIdStr":"3553254172092293","name":"DingDang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0c38ce6f3c2661fa15b7d1f52eeaf","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":42,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Buy them all!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Buy them all!</body></html>","text":"Buy them all!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605898639","repostId":1122303970,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122303970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639135689,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122303970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候购买道琼斯指数今年表现最差的 3 只股票了吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122303970","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Take a look to see if these dogs of the Dow are worth buying.","content":"The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.<blockquote>这个道琼斯工业指数是一个由美国证券交易所30家最大和最有影响力的公司组成的指数。该指数历史上每年的回报率约为 7.5%，因此上涨超过 15% 使 2021 年成为值得庆祝的一年。</blockquote> Not every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.<blockquote>并非道琼斯指数中的每只股票都表现良好。我们将要讨论的三只股票自 2021 年初以来都在下跌，尽管该指数上涨了很多。我们将查看每一个，以确定它们是否代表了一个机会，或者下跌是有充分理由的。</blockquote> 1. Amgen<blockquote>1. 安进</blockquote> Biotech company&nbsp;Amgen&nbsp;has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.<blockquote>生物技术公司安进自2021年初以来已下降约7%。该公司开发和销售针对炎症、癌症、骨骼健康、心脏病等的药物。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115c1a57215446a5a83d447ffbb995ca\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image source: Getty Images.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> When a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.<blockquote>当一家公司发明一种成功的药物时，它的配方就会获得专利，从而保护它免受多年的直接竞争。药物的研发可能需要花费数百万美元，但在试验中测试时可能会失败。一种成功的药物有时被称为重磅炸弹，在其专利期限内可以带来数十亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Investors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.<blockquote>投资者可以通过关注制药公司的关键产品何时失去专利保护来了解其发展轨迹。一旦发生这种情况，仿制药竞争对手就会以更低的价格涌入市场，大大减少原研药的销量。</blockquote> Many of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:<blockquote>安进的许多初级产品在专利到期后可能会失去销售：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Enbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.</li> <li>Prolia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> <li>Otezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.</li> <li>Xgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> </ul> The United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will&nbsp;need its pipeline to deliver&nbsp;successful products to replace this lost revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>恩利（占收入的 19%）将于 2029 年在美国到期。</li><li>Prolia（占收入的 12%）将于 2025 年在美国到期。</li><li>Otezla（占收入的 9%）将于 2028 年在美国到期。</li><li>Xgeva（占收入的 8%）将于 2025 年在美国到期。</li></ul>美国有一个更复杂的专利制度，制药公司可以通过对其进行微小的修改来延长其专利。这一点，再加上美国市场收取的高昂药价，就是为什么国内销售额占安进全球收入的68%。随着这些专利在未来十年内到期，该公司将需要其管道来交付成功的产品，以弥补这一损失的收入。</blockquote> The stock currently trades at a&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio&nbsp;(P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021&nbsp;earnings per share&nbsp;(EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.<blockquote>根据分析师对 2021 年每股收益 (EPS) 的预测，该股目前的市盈率 (P/E) 为 12，远低于 17 的历史平均水平。分析师呼吁未来三到五年每年增长8%，制药公司由于药价问题在美国面临政治压力。这些风险可能证明折扣估值是合理的，而这正是该股在这些水平上所提供的。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 2. Merck<blockquote>2.默克</blockquote> A rival to Amgen,Merck&nbsp;develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>安进的竞争对手，默克开发癌症、免疫学和病毒学药物以及疫苗产品，以及一个独立的业务部门开发兽用药物。该股自年初以来一直保持着11%的跌幅。</blockquote> Merck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.<blockquote>默克公司没有像安进公司那样迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其Januvia/Janumet约占销售额的10%，其专利将于2022年到期，但默沙东其余重要药物如Keytruda（收入的34%）和Gardasil（收入的15%）的专利要到2028年才到期。</blockquote> The company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival&nbsp;Pfizer&nbsp;is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be&nbsp;enough demand for both to succeedhere.<blockquote>该公司还发布了莫努匹拉韦临床试验的积极结果，莫努匹拉韦是一种在 COVID-19 感染早期服用的药丸，可以将严重疾病的风险降低 30%。默克公司已经同意出售超过 22 亿美元的治疗药物，因此随着奥密克戎变种病毒的继续传播，它可能会给默克公司的业务带来火花。对手辉瑞也将类似的药丸推向市场，但可能有足够的需求让两者都取得成功。</blockquote> The stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.<blockquote>该股的市盈率为 11，较历史市盈率 27 大幅折扣。分析师呼吁未来三到五年内每年温和增长 6%，但由于新冠治疗，这可能是保守的。投资者可能不会考虑 COVID 药丸带来的潜在业务，而估值下调可能会提供安全边际。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 3. Verizon Communications<blockquote>3. 威瑞森通信</blockquote> Down 14% year to date, telecom company&nbsp;Verizon Communications&nbsp;is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;and&nbsp;T-Mobile.<blockquote>电信公司今年迄今下跌 14%威瑞森通信是控制美国无线网络的少数几家公司之一。支持我们全国电话网络的基础设施耗资数十亿美元，耗时数年建成，因此来自外部竞争的威胁很小，即使面对像AT&amp;T和T-移动.</blockquote> The stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.<blockquote>根据 2021 年每股收益预测，该股的市盈率略高于 9。如果我们看一下其历史平均水平（14），这是一个便宜的估值。虽然许多人会认为5G技术将带来巨大的增长，但威瑞森历史上一直是一家增长缓慢的企业，即使随着时间的推移，3G和4G网络的出现。</blockquote> Analysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.<blockquote>分析师预计该公司三到五年的每股收益年增长率约为 3%。想要稳定股息的防御性投资者可以在这里受益：它支付的股息收益率为 5%，只需要一半的利润就能支付这笔款项。专注于总回报的投资者可能不会对 Verizon 感到兴奋，即使估值降低了。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-down<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候购买道琼斯指数今年表现最差的 3 只股票了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time to Buy the Dow's 3 Worst Performing Stocks This Year?<blockquote>是时候购买道琼斯指数今年表现最差的 3 只股票了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-12-10 19:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.<blockquote>这个道琼斯工业指数是一个由美国证券交易所30家最大和最有影响力的公司组成的指数。该指数历史上每年的回报率约为 7.5%，因此上涨超过 15% 使 2021 年成为值得庆祝的一年。</blockquote> Not every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.<blockquote>并非道琼斯指数中的每只股票都表现良好。我们将要讨论的三只股票自 2021 年初以来都在下跌，尽管该指数上涨了很多。我们将查看每一个，以确定它们是否代表了一个机会，或者下跌是有充分理由的。</blockquote> 1. Amgen<blockquote>1. 安进</blockquote> Biotech company&nbsp;Amgen&nbsp;has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.<blockquote>生物技术公司安进自2021年初以来已下降约7%。该公司开发和销售针对炎症、癌症、骨骼健康、心脏病等的药物。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/115c1a57215446a5a83d447ffbb995ca\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image source: Getty Images.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> When a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.<blockquote>当一家公司发明一种成功的药物时，它的配方就会获得专利，从而保护它免受多年的直接竞争。药物的研发可能需要花费数百万美元，但在试验中测试时可能会失败。一种成功的药物有时被称为重磅炸弹，在其专利期限内可以带来数十亿美元的收入。</blockquote> Investors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.<blockquote>投资者可以通过关注制药公司的关键产品何时失去专利保护来了解其发展轨迹。一旦发生这种情况，仿制药竞争对手就会以更低的价格涌入市场，大大减少原研药的销量。</blockquote> Many of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:<blockquote>安进的许多初级产品在专利到期后可能会失去销售：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Enbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.</li> <li>Prolia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> <li>Otezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.</li> <li>Xgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.</li> </ul> The United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will&nbsp;need its pipeline to deliver&nbsp;successful products to replace this lost revenue.<blockquote><ul><li>恩利（占收入的 19%）将于 2029 年在美国到期。</li><li>Prolia（占收入的 12%）将于 2025 年在美国到期。</li><li>Otezla（占收入的 9%）将于 2028 年在美国到期。</li><li>Xgeva（占收入的 8%）将于 2025 年在美国到期。</li></ul>美国有一个更复杂的专利制度，制药公司可以通过对其进行微小的修改来延长其专利。这一点，再加上美国市场收取的高昂药价，就是为什么国内销售额占安进全球收入的68%。随着这些专利在未来十年内到期，该公司将需要其管道来交付成功的产品，以弥补这一损失的收入。</blockquote> The stock currently trades at a&nbsp;price-to-earnings ratio&nbsp;(P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021&nbsp;earnings per share&nbsp;(EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.<blockquote>根据分析师对 2021 年每股收益 (EPS) 的预测，该股目前的市盈率 (P/E) 为 12，远低于 17 的历史平均水平。分析师呼吁未来三到五年每年增长8%，制药公司由于药价问题在美国面临政治压力。这些风险可能证明折扣估值是合理的，而这正是该股在这些水平上所提供的。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 2. Merck<blockquote>2.默克</blockquote> A rival to Amgen,Merck&nbsp;develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.<blockquote>安进的竞争对手，默克开发癌症、免疫学和病毒学药物以及疫苗产品，以及一个独立的业务部门开发兽用药物。该股自年初以来一直保持着11%的跌幅。</blockquote> Merck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.<blockquote>默克公司没有像安进公司那样迫在眉睫的专利悬崖。其Januvia/Janumet约占销售额的10%，其专利将于2022年到期，但默沙东其余重要药物如Keytruda（收入的34%）和Gardasil（收入的15%）的专利要到2028年才到期。</blockquote> The company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival&nbsp;Pfizer&nbsp;is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be&nbsp;enough demand for both to succeedhere.<blockquote>该公司还发布了莫努匹拉韦临床试验的积极结果，莫努匹拉韦是一种在 COVID-19 感染早期服用的药丸，可以将严重疾病的风险降低 30%。默克公司已经同意出售超过 22 亿美元的治疗药物，因此随着奥密克戎变种病毒的继续传播，它可能会给默克公司的业务带来火花。对手辉瑞也将类似的药丸推向市场，但可能有足够的需求让两者都取得成功。</blockquote> The stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.<blockquote>该股的市盈率为 11，较历史市盈率 27 大幅折扣。分析师呼吁未来三到五年内每年温和增长 6%，但由于新冠治疗，这可能是保守的。投资者可能不会考虑 COVID 药丸带来的潜在业务，而估值下调可能会提供安全边际。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-up<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote> 3. Verizon Communications<blockquote>3. 威瑞森通信</blockquote> Down 14% year to date, telecom company&nbsp;Verizon Communications&nbsp;is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;and&nbsp;T-Mobile.<blockquote>电信公司今年迄今下跌 14%威瑞森通信是控制美国无线网络的少数几家公司之一。支持我们全国电话网络的基础设施耗资数十亿美元，耗时数年建成，因此来自外部竞争的威胁很小，即使面对像AT&amp;T和T-移动.</blockquote> The stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.<blockquote>根据 2021 年每股收益预测，该股的市盈率略高于 9。如果我们看一下其历史平均水平（14），这是一个便宜的估值。虽然许多人会认为5G技术将带来巨大的增长，但威瑞森历史上一直是一家增长缓慢的企业，即使随着时间的推移，3G和4G网络的出现。</blockquote> Analysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.<blockquote>分析师预计该公司三到五年的每股收益年增长率约为 3%。想要稳定股息的防御性投资者可以在这里受益：它支付的股息收益率为 5%，只需要一半的利润就能支付这笔款项。专注于总回报的投资者可能不会对 Verizon 感到兴奋，即使估值降低了。</blockquote> Verdict: thumbs-down<blockquote>结论：竖起大拇指</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/10/is-it-time-to-buy-the-dow-jones-3-worst-performing/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VZ":"Verizon Comms","AMGN":"安进","MRK":"默沙东"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/10/is-it-time-to-buy-the-dow-jones-3-worst-performing/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122303970","content_text":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an index made up of 30 of the largest and most influential companies on U.S. stock exchanges. The index has historically returned around 7.5% each year, so being up over 15% makes 2021 a year to celebrate.\nNot every stock in the Dow Jones has performed well. The three stocks we'll discuss are all down and have been since the beginning of 2021, despite the index being up so much. We'll look at each one to determine whether they represent an opportunity or are down for a good reason.\n1. Amgen\nBiotech company Amgen has been down about 7% since the beginning of 2021. The company develops and sells drugs aimed at inflammation, cancer, bone health, heart disease, and more.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nWhen a company invents a successful drug, its formula is patented, protecting it from direct competition for many years. Medications can cost millions of dollars to research and develop but can fail when tested in trials. A successful drug sometimes referred to as a blockbuster, can bring in billions in revenue over the length of its patent.\nInvestors can get a feel for the trajectory of a drug company by following when its key products lose their patent protection. Once this happens, generic competitors flood the market at lower prices, significantly reducing the original drug's sales.\nMany of Amgen's primary products could lose sales when their patents expire:\n\nEnbrel (19% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2029.\nProlia (12% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.\nOtezla (9% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2028.\nXgeva (8% of revenue) expires in the U.S. in 2025.\n\nThe United States has a more-complicated patent system, where drug companies can extend their patents by making minor changes to them. This, combined with the high drug prices charged in the U.S. market, is why domestic sales account for 68% of Amgen's global revenue. As these patents expire over the next decade, the company will need its pipeline to deliver successful products to replace this lost revenue.\nThe stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 12 using analyst estimates for 2021 earnings per share (EPS), far less than its historical average of 17. Analysts are calling for growth of 8% per year over the next three to five years, and pharmaceutical companies face political pressure in the United States due to drug prices. These risks probably justify a discounted valuation, and that's just what the stock offers at these levels.\nVerdict: thumbs-up\n2. Merck\nA rival to Amgen,Merck develops drugs for cancer, immunology, and virology, as well as vaccine products, along with a separate business unit that develops drugs for veterinary use. The stock has maintained its 11% decline since the beginning of the year.\nMerck doesn't have a patent cliff that's quite as imminent as Amgen's. Its Januvia/Janumet accounts for about 10% of sales, and its patent expires in 2022, but the patents for the rest of Merck's significant drugs like Keytruda (34% of revenue) and Gardasil (15% of revenue) don't expire until 2028.\nThe company also released positive results from its clinical trials on molnupiravir, a pill that, when taken at the early stages of COVID-19 infection, can reduce the risk of serious illness by 30%. Merck has already agreed to sell more than $2.2 billion in treatments, so as the omicron variant continues to spread, it could give a spark to Merck's business. Rival Pfizer is also bringing a similar pill to market, but there could be enough demand for both to succeedhere.\nThe stock is trading at a P/E of 11, a significant discount to its historical P/E of 27. Analysts are calling for modest growth of 6% per year over the next three to five years, but that might be conservative due to COVID treatments. Investors might not be factoring in the potential business from the COVID pill, and the valuation markdown could provide a margin of safety.\nVerdict: thumbs-up\n3. Verizon Communications\nDown 14% year to date, telecom company Verizon Communications is among a select few companies that control the wireless networks in the United States. The infrastructure that supports our nationwide phone network costs billions of dollars and took years to build out, so there is a minor threat from outside competition, even with fierce competitors like AT&T and T-Mobile.\nThe stock trades at a P/E of just over 9 based on 2021 EPS estimates. This is a bargain valuation if we look at its historical average, 14. While many would assume that 5G technology would unlock a lot of growth, Verizon has historically been a slow-growing business even with the emergence of 3G and 4G networks over time.\nAnalysts estimate the company's three-to-five-year EPS growth at around 3% annually. Defensive investors who want a solid dividend can benefit here: It pays a dividend that yields 5% and needs just half of its profits to afford that payment. Investors focused on total returns probably won't get excited about Verizon, even at this reduced valuation.\nVerdict: thumbs-down","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRK":0.9,"VZ":0.9,"AMGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1079,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/605898639"}