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2021-12-07

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Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position<blockquote>苹果：真正的“永不出售”立场</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":606501676,"tweetId":"606501676","gmtCreate":1638889637281,"gmtModify":1638889711090,"author":{"id":3553254172092293,"idStr":"3553254172092293","authorId":3553254172092293,"authorIdStr":"3553254172092293","name":"DingDang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0c38ce6f3c2661fa15b7d1f52eeaf","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":42,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Buy!</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Buy!</body></html>","text":"Buy!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606501676","repostId":1162682713,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162682713","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638887298,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1162682713?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-07 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position<blockquote>苹果：真正的“永不出售”立场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162682713","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on share","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>With $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.</li> <li>In addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.</li> <li>The Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404c4a2883110ed556fd9700c5cffb83\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>凭借 315B 美元的授权股票回购和 0.6% 的收益率，苹果仅在对股东友好的做法上就应该获得 4.3% 的回报率。</li><li>此外，即使iPhone略有放缓，该公司在可穿戴设备和服务方面仍将实现两位数的增长。</li><li>苹果生态系统也将与潜在的苹果汽车和AR/VR游戏更加紧密地交织在一起。</li></ul>CatLane/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> At an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.<blockquote>市值接近 3 万美元，我仍然是苹果 (AAPL) 的持有者。虽然我绝对希望在过去几年里我能购买更多这家发电厂的股票，但我已经从股息再投资中获得了增量收益。</blockquote> The news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?<blockquote>新闻周期会让你相信这个庞然大物有很多逆风，它的垮台随时可能到来。由于风险有限且潜力巨大，该公司今天值得购买吗？</blockquote> Limited Risk<blockquote>有限风险</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe4e9d4f4aca197052840240959df43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"831\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: Forbes magazine cover, 2007<blockquote>图片：福布斯杂志封面，2007 年</blockquote> I am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"<blockquote>我对过去的手机制造商很熟悉。例如，诺基亚曾经是行业巨头。它被认为是不可触碰的，然后iPhone出现了。我的意思是，看看上面的福布斯封面，“有人能抓住手机之王吗？”</blockquote> That cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.<blockquote>封面新闻发布于2007年11月12日，也就是iPhone首次亮相几个月后。压垮诺基亚的稻草，以及让苹果拥有比今天的苹果公园更宽的护城河的功能，2008年年中推出的App Store。</blockquote> The App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.<blockquote>虽然看起来很简单，但应用商店给了苹果王国的钥匙。你可以使用第三方开发者在iPhone上销售的数千个应用程序，而不是局限于诺基亚设备上的几个应用程序。这是一个举世闻名的生态系统的开始。</blockquote> Today, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.<blockquote>如今，苹果的生态系统已经显著增长。该生态系统的增长意味着苹果“粉丝”将不得不花费数千美元，或者克服巨大的不便来转换。</blockquote> Consider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.<blockquote>考虑订阅了几个应用程序、Air Pods、苹果手表、iPhone、iPad，也许还有MacBook的用户。那个人不是局外人。如果他们考虑切换到Android，他们将不得不取消这几个应用程序，扔掉他们的苹果手表，更换AirPods，并将失去iPad和MacBook上许多出色的捆绑消息功能。</blockquote> First-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.<blockquote>绝对是第一世界的问题。然而，这种搭配是真实的。苹果制造用户喜爱的世界级产品。他们被所有提供绝佳体验的附加配件所吸引，然后他们成为终身顾客。</blockquote> Apple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.<blockquote>无论如何，苹果股票都是一个比现金更好的地方来存放你的钱，因为它没有风险。如果有什么事情开始推翻这个纸牌屋，它不会在一夜之间发生，而且由于苹果积累的转换成本，它肯定不会像诺基亚那样迅速发生。</blockquote> Enviable Metrics<blockquote>令人羡慕的指标</blockquote> Despite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.<blockquote>尽管违反了大数定律，但在考虑许多不同的指标时，苹果仍然看起来非常出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f0199dd5d3c8dade8af08d884a5459\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)<blockquote>图片：苹果每 10,000 美元的债务（第 45 页）</blockquote> The worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt&nbsp;per the company's 10-K filings.<blockquote>在我看来，苹果最糟糕的指标是 1.7 的债务股本比率。然而，在这个数字上，我的思绪可能会停留在正利率的好日子里。苹果 1090 亿美元债务中的大部分利率可以忽略不计（0.03-2%）。高端服务成本略低于 5%，但根据该公司 10,000 份文件，这只占苹果公司债务的一小部分。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547e6241dab1a7aef3e649fb0f10d5ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> All of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.<blockquote>所有这些钱都没有进入内部项目，而是用于股票回购。也许没有一家公司能像苹果在过去十年中那样成为股票回购的缩影。该公司已经退役了价值数千亿美元的股票以造福股东，并且至今仍在继续这样做。</blockquote> These share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.<blockquote>这些股票回购是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 现在拥有苹果 5.5% 股份的原因。当许多人称赞巴菲特在苹果列车上迟到时，他已经证明了他的信念是值得的，并帮助已经庞大的伯克希尔投资组合继续凭借这种高度集中的投资击败市场。</blockquote> Buffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.<blockquote>抛开巴菲特不谈，苹果在投资优质股票时应该关注的几个指标上确实表现出色。由于大流行导致的净利润扩张，这里的股本回报率高达 140%，令人瞠目结舌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a898072faa8c46eeaa734222ff059\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Given the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.<blockquote>考虑到债务数额，投资资本回报率可能是更好的衡量标准。苹果的投资回报率一直在20%以上，这是一个了不起的业务的标志。</blockquote> Oh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.<blockquote>哦，这可能不用说，但这个行业是现金丰富的。截至上一份报告，苹果手头有 35B 美元现金和 155B 美元有价证券（流动和非流动的混合）。凭借该公司仍可部署 190B 美元的资本，苹果无疑处于令人羡慕的地位。</blockquote> Valuation: Rich<blockquote>估值：丰富</blockquote> Those metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?<blockquote>这些指标并非未知，但它们令人难以置信。毫不奇怪，苹果的市值可能会在未来一年左右突破 3 万亿美元，但在如此高的水平上，该公司值得购买吗？</blockquote> As mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?<blockquote>如上所述，我将苹果视为一个几乎类似现金的头寸。在通货膨胀的世界里，苹果有资产负债表来支撑它，它拥有强大的定价权，并且其产品的利润率异常高，能够经受住这场风暴。你愿意让你的钱每年失去5%的购买力，还是在苹果这样的美国巨头中成长？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a160cc869ef1cc00bd4eb8db7bd93\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: A mockup VR headset via BGR<blockquote>图片：来自 BGR 的 VR 头显模型</blockquote> A valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.<blockquote>苹果的估值还必须包括苹果汽车的潜力，或者未来18个月内将出现在我们身边的AR/VR头显。这些类型的项目一直被严格保密，但考虑到特斯拉 (TSLA) 和Rivian (RIVN) 等电动汽车制造商的估值，市场将对苹果执行良好的产品给予相当丰厚的奖励。</blockquote> An Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.<blockquote>据推测，与 iOS 深度集成的苹果汽车将进一步推动生态系统飞轮。事实上，这将把飞轮带到难以想象的水平。想象一下，试图离开一个生态系统，在这个生态系统中，你必须更换一辆5万美元（我可能很便宜）的汽车、一部手机、一台电脑……很锁。</blockquote> Taking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.<blockquote>考虑到AR/VR，人们不得不考虑AR可能是iPhone的蚕食力量。如果人们可以通过镜头看到他们需要的一切，并通过手势或苹果手表控制这些镜头，苹果可以蚕食手机市场。</blockquote> That, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.<blockquote>然而，这是一件好事。苹果可以为像AR眼镜这样的新奇产品定价，利润率高于手机。粉丝和技术爱好者会支付早期采用者的价格，如果产品不负众望，其他人也会很快效仿。这让苹果摆脱了“一部手机1000美元”的思维模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a008b34566e3309b095ad284807d12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> All this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.<blockquote>综上所述，苹果今天的丰富估值是值得的。市盈率约为 29，算不上过分，但超出了苹果过去五年的平均水平。</blockquote> The ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).<blockquote>生态系统是一个将客户终身联系在一起的生态系统，它是价值所在，苹果计划通过汽车和可穿戴设备来扩展这一价值。即使市盈率为 29，我相信这也是一项安全的长期投资，将向投资者支付股息，尽管很小，同时继续回收数十亿美元的股票（315B 美元授权约 10%）。</blockquote> Addressing The Risks<blockquote>应对风险</blockquote> Fear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.<blockquote>恐惧和通货膨胀。恐惧是苹果面临的最大、最重要的风险。买家被告知，糟糕的时期即将到来，往往会勒紧钱包。不得不在食品杂货上多花10%的买家突然没有足够的钱购买最新的iPhone。</blockquote> These are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.<blockquote>这些都是苹果几乎无法控制的外部问题。多年来，该公司推出了先买后付和订阅计划，帮助买家以实惠的每月价格获得他们想要的商品，而且，正如所讨论的，苹果拥有可观的利润，可以用来克服这一领域的重大阻力。</blockquote> Execution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.<blockquote>执行是苹果面临的另一个风险，尤其是当我们期待这些“未来”产品时。一辆自动驾驶汽车的终身收入可能价值数万亿美元，也可能是一款发布后的哑弹，永远不会获得在街道上运行的完全批准。同样，没有人愿意被看到佩戴的 AR 耳机，或者被证明很难全天佩戴，可能是一款一成不变的产品。</blockquote> Given the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.<blockquote>鉴于这两种产品的性质及其开发的保密性，人们无法真正给它们分配一个真正的风险评级。它们只是需要注意的事情。然而，苹果确实有着出色的执行力历史（除了 MacBook 键盘和触控栏），因此投资者至少应该对该公司将全力以赴感到有些放心。</blockquote> Final Thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> At a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.<blockquote>估值接近 3 万亿美元，人们会认为苹果的运行空间已经不多了，但由于出色的资本配置，投资者仍然可以在这个名字上击败整体市场。</blockquote> Apple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.<blockquote>苹果拥有 315B 美元的授权回购，每年返还约 145B 美元的股息。苹果可能会在 2022 财年回购近 1000 亿美元的股票，按今天的价格计算，仅这一项就代表了 3.7% 的回报率。再加上 0.6% 的股息收益率，投资者仅通过对股东友好的做法就能从这个名字中获得 4.3%。</blockquote> Those numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.<blockquote>这些数字也会复合，2023 年再增加 100B 美元，2024 年再增加 100B 美元，所有这些加起来。那3000亿美元也都是授权的。</blockquote> Along with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.<blockquote>除了这些回购和股息之外，投资者还在买入一家去年无视大数字定律，营收增长 33% 的公司。虽然今年不太可能，但我仍然预计可穿戴设备和服务部门将以两位数的速度增长，这将使苹果在未来3-5年内实现高个位数的收入增长。</blockquote> Those with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.<blockquote>那些对苹果持悲观看法的人表现得好像这个庞然大物会在一夜之间消失，但事实并非如此。当然，未来您不太可能降低 30% 以上的年回报率，但如果您正在寻找一家能够一点一点击败市场的高质量稳定企业，苹果是一匹很好的马（或汽车）。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: A True 'Never Sell' Position<blockquote>苹果：真正的“永不出售”立场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: A True 'Never Sell' Position<blockquote>苹果：真正的“永不出售”立场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-07 22:28\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>With $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.</li> <li>In addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.</li> <li>The Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/404c4a2883110ed556fd9700c5cffb83\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">CatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>凭借 315B 美元的授权股票回购和 0.6% 的收益率，苹果仅在对股东友好的做法上就应该获得 4.3% 的回报率。</li><li>此外，即使iPhone略有放缓，该公司在可穿戴设备和服务方面仍将实现两位数的增长。</li><li>苹果生态系统也将与潜在的苹果汽车和AR/VR游戏更加紧密地交织在一起。</li></ul>CatLane/iStock 未通过 Getty Images 发布</blockquote> At an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.<blockquote>市值接近 3 万美元，我仍然是苹果 (AAPL) 的持有者。虽然我绝对希望在过去几年里我能购买更多这家发电厂的股票，但我已经从股息再投资中获得了增量收益。</blockquote> The news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?<blockquote>新闻周期会让你相信这个庞然大物有很多逆风，它的垮台随时可能到来。由于风险有限且潜力巨大，该公司今天值得购买吗？</blockquote> Limited Risk<blockquote>有限风险</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fe4e9d4f4aca197052840240959df43\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"831\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: Forbes magazine cover, 2007<blockquote>图片：福布斯杂志封面，2007 年</blockquote> I am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"<blockquote>我对过去的手机制造商很熟悉。例如，诺基亚曾经是行业巨头。它被认为是不可触碰的，然后iPhone出现了。我的意思是，看看上面的福布斯封面，“有人能抓住手机之王吗？”</blockquote> That cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.<blockquote>封面新闻发布于2007年11月12日，也就是iPhone首次亮相几个月后。压垮诺基亚的稻草，以及让苹果拥有比今天的苹果公园更宽的护城河的功能，2008年年中推出的App Store。</blockquote> The App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.<blockquote>虽然看起来很简单，但应用商店给了苹果王国的钥匙。你可以使用第三方开发者在iPhone上销售的数千个应用程序，而不是局限于诺基亚设备上的几个应用程序。这是一个举世闻名的生态系统的开始。</blockquote> Today, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.<blockquote>如今，苹果的生态系统已经显著增长。该生态系统的增长意味着苹果“粉丝”将不得不花费数千美元，或者克服巨大的不便来转换。</blockquote> Consider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.<blockquote>考虑订阅了几个应用程序、Air Pods、苹果手表、iPhone、iPad，也许还有MacBook的用户。那个人不是局外人。如果他们考虑切换到Android，他们将不得不取消这几个应用程序，扔掉他们的苹果手表，更换AirPods，并将失去iPad和MacBook上许多出色的捆绑消息功能。</blockquote> First-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.<blockquote>绝对是第一世界的问题。然而，这种搭配是真实的。苹果制造用户喜爱的世界级产品。他们被所有提供绝佳体验的附加配件所吸引，然后他们成为终身顾客。</blockquote> Apple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.<blockquote>无论如何，苹果股票都是一个比现金更好的地方来存放你的钱，因为它没有风险。如果有什么事情开始推翻这个纸牌屋，它不会在一夜之间发生，而且由于苹果积累的转换成本，它肯定不会像诺基亚那样迅速发生。</blockquote> Enviable Metrics<blockquote>令人羡慕的指标</blockquote> Despite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.<blockquote>尽管违反了大数定律，但在考虑许多不同的指标时，苹果仍然看起来非常出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f0199dd5d3c8dade8af08d884a5459\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)<blockquote>图片：苹果每 10,000 美元的债务（第 45 页）</blockquote> The worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt&nbsp;per the company's 10-K filings.<blockquote>在我看来，苹果最糟糕的指标是 1.7 的债务股本比率。然而，在这个数字上，我的思绪可能会停留在正利率的好日子里。苹果 1090 亿美元债务中的大部分利率可以忽略不计（0.03-2%）。高端服务成本略低于 5%，但根据该公司 10,000 份文件，这只占苹果公司债务的一小部分。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547e6241dab1a7aef3e649fb0f10d5ff\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> All of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.<blockquote>所有这些钱都没有进入内部项目，而是用于股票回购。也许没有一家公司能像苹果在过去十年中那样成为股票回购的缩影。该公司已经退役了价值数千亿美元的股票以造福股东，并且至今仍在继续这样做。</blockquote> These share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.<blockquote>这些股票回购是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司 (BRK.B) 现在拥有苹果 5.5% 股份的原因。当许多人称赞巴菲特在苹果列车上迟到时，他已经证明了他的信念是值得的，并帮助已经庞大的伯克希尔投资组合继续凭借这种高度集中的投资击败市场。</blockquote> Buffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.<blockquote>抛开巴菲特不谈，苹果在投资优质股票时应该关注的几个指标上确实表现出色。由于大流行导致的净利润扩张，这里的股本回报率高达 140%，令人瞠目结舌。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2a898072faa8c46eeaa734222ff059\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Given the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.<blockquote>考虑到债务数额，投资资本回报率可能是更好的衡量标准。苹果的投资回报率一直在20%以上，这是一个了不起的业务的标志。</blockquote> Oh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.<blockquote>哦，这可能不用说，但这个行业是现金丰富的。截至上一份报告，苹果手头有 35B 美元现金和 155B 美元有价证券（流动和非流动的混合）。凭借该公司仍可部署 190B 美元的资本，苹果无疑处于令人羡慕的地位。</blockquote> Valuation: Rich<blockquote>估值：丰富</blockquote> Those metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?<blockquote>这些指标并非未知，但它们令人难以置信。毫不奇怪，苹果的市值可能会在未来一年左右突破 3 万亿美元，但在如此高的水平上，该公司值得购买吗？</blockquote> As mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?<blockquote>如上所述，我将苹果视为一个几乎类似现金的头寸。在通货膨胀的世界里，苹果有资产负债表来支撑它，它拥有强大的定价权，并且其产品的利润率异常高，能够经受住这场风暴。你愿意让你的钱每年失去5%的购买力，还是在苹果这样的美国巨头中成长？</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159a160cc869ef1cc00bd4eb8db7bd93\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Image: A mockup VR headset via BGR<blockquote>图片：来自 BGR 的 VR 头显模型</blockquote> A valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.<blockquote>苹果的估值还必须包括苹果汽车的潜力，或者未来18个月内将出现在我们身边的AR/VR头显。这些类型的项目一直被严格保密，但考虑到特斯拉 (TSLA) 和Rivian (RIVN) 等电动汽车制造商的估值，市场将对苹果执行良好的产品给予相当丰厚的奖励。</blockquote> An Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.<blockquote>据推测，与 iOS 深度集成的苹果汽车将进一步推动生态系统飞轮。事实上，这将把飞轮带到难以想象的水平。想象一下，试图离开一个生态系统，在这个生态系统中，你必须更换一辆5万美元（我可能很便宜）的汽车、一部手机、一台电脑……很锁。</blockquote> Taking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.<blockquote>考虑到AR/VR，人们不得不考虑AR可能是iPhone的蚕食力量。如果人们可以通过镜头看到他们需要的一切，并通过手势或苹果手表控制这些镜头，苹果可以蚕食手机市场。</blockquote> That, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.<blockquote>然而，这是一件好事。苹果可以为像AR眼镜这样的新奇产品定价，利润率高于手机。粉丝和技术爱好者会支付早期采用者的价格，如果产品不负众望，其他人也会很快效仿。这让苹果摆脱了“一部手机1000美元”的思维模式。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a008b34566e3309b095ad284807d12\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> All this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.<blockquote>综上所述，苹果今天的丰富估值是值得的。市盈率约为 29，算不上过分，但超出了苹果过去五年的平均水平。</blockquote> The ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).<blockquote>生态系统是一个将客户终身联系在一起的生态系统，它是价值所在，苹果计划通过汽车和可穿戴设备来扩展这一价值。即使市盈率为 29，我相信这也是一项安全的长期投资，将向投资者支付股息，尽管很小，同时继续回收数十亿美元的股票（315B 美元授权约 10%）。</blockquote> Addressing The Risks<blockquote>应对风险</blockquote> Fear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.<blockquote>恐惧和通货膨胀。恐惧是苹果面临的最大、最重要的风险。买家被告知，糟糕的时期即将到来，往往会勒紧钱包。不得不在食品杂货上多花10%的买家突然没有足够的钱购买最新的iPhone。</blockquote> These are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.<blockquote>这些都是苹果几乎无法控制的外部问题。多年来，该公司推出了先买后付和订阅计划，帮助买家以实惠的每月价格获得他们想要的商品，而且，正如所讨论的，苹果拥有可观的利润，可以用来克服这一领域的重大阻力。</blockquote> Execution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.<blockquote>执行是苹果面临的另一个风险，尤其是当我们期待这些“未来”产品时。一辆自动驾驶汽车的终身收入可能价值数万亿美元，也可能是一款发布后的哑弹，永远不会获得在街道上运行的完全批准。同样，没有人愿意被看到佩戴的 AR 耳机，或者被证明很难全天佩戴，可能是一款一成不变的产品。</blockquote> Given the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.<blockquote>鉴于这两种产品的性质及其开发的保密性，人们无法真正给它们分配一个真正的风险评级。它们只是需要注意的事情。然而，苹果确实有着出色的执行力历史（除了 MacBook 键盘和触控栏），因此投资者至少应该对该公司将全力以赴感到有些放心。</blockquote> Final Thoughts<blockquote>最后的想法</blockquote> At a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.<blockquote>估值接近 3 万亿美元，人们会认为苹果的运行空间已经不多了，但由于出色的资本配置，投资者仍然可以在这个名字上击败整体市场。</blockquote> Apple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.<blockquote>苹果拥有 315B 美元的授权回购，每年返还约 145B 美元的股息。苹果可能会在 2022 财年回购近 1000 亿美元的股票，按今天的价格计算，仅这一项就代表了 3.7% 的回报率。再加上 0.6% 的股息收益率，投资者仅通过对股东友好的做法就能从这个名字中获得 4.3%。</blockquote> Those numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.<blockquote>这些数字也会复合，2023 年再增加 100B 美元，2024 年再增加 100B 美元，所有这些加起来。那3000亿美元也都是授权的。</blockquote> Along with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.<blockquote>除了这些回购和股息之外，投资者还在买入一家去年无视大数字定律，营收增长 33% 的公司。虽然今年不太可能，但我仍然预计可穿戴设备和服务部门将以两位数的速度增长，这将使苹果在未来3-5年内实现高个位数的收入增长。</blockquote> Those with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.<blockquote>那些对苹果持悲观看法的人表现得好像这个庞然大物会在一夜之间消失，但事实并非如此。当然，未来您不太可能降低 30% 以上的年回报率，但如果您正在寻找一家能够一点一点击败市场的高质量稳定企业，苹果是一匹很好的马（或汽车）。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4473801-apple-a-true-never-sell-position","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162682713","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith $315B in authorized share buybacks and a 0.6% yield, Apple should return 4.3% on shareholder-friendly practices alone.\nIn addition, the company will still see double-digit growth in wearables and services, even if iPhone slows down a little.\nThe Apple ecosystem also stands to get more intertwined with a potential Apple Car and AR/VR plays.\n\nCatLane/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAt an almost $3T market cap, I am still a holder of Apple (AAPL). While I absolutely wish I would have bought more of this powerhouse in years past, I've made do with incremental gains from dividend reinvestment.\nThe news cycle would have you believe that this behemoth has head-winds galore, and that the downfall could come any day now. With limited risk and potential galore, is the company worth buying today?\nLimited Risk\nImage: Forbes magazine cover, 2007\nI am familiar with cellphone manufacturers of days past. Nokia, for example, used to be the titan of industry. It was thought to be untouchable and then came the iPhone. I mean, just look at the Forbes cover above, \"can anyone catch the cell phone king?\"\nThat cover hit news stands on November 12, 2007, a few months after the iPhone had made its debut. The straw that broke Nokia's back, and the feature which gives Apple a moat wider than Apple Park today, The App Store launched in mid-2008.\nThe App Store, as simple as it may seem, gave Apple the keys to the kingdom. Rather than be limited to the few apps that came on your Nokia device, you could use one of the thousands of apps sold by third-party developers on the iPhone. This was the beginning of a world-beating ecosystem.\nToday, Apple's ecosystem has grown in a significant way. The growth of that ecosystem means that Apple \"fanboys\" would have to spend thousands of dollars, or work through significant inconveniences to switch.\nConsider the user that has subscriptions to several apps, Air Pods, an Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, and perhaps a MacBook. That person is not an outlier. If they consider switching to Android they'll have to cancel those several apps, throw their Apple Watch out, replace the AirPods, and would lose lots of great tie-in messaging functionality across the iPad and MacBook.\nFirst-world problems, absolutely. The tie-in, however, is real. Apple make world-class products that users love. They get caught up in all the added accessories which deliver a great experience and then they are customers for life.\nApple stock, for all intents and purposes, is a better place to keep your money than cash because of this lack of risk. Should something start to topple this house of cards, it wouldn't happen overnight, and it certainly won't happen as rapidly as it happened to Nokia because of the switching costs Apple has built up.\nEnviable Metrics\nDespite running up against the law of large numbers, Apple continues to look stellar when considering a number of different metrics.\nImage: Apple's debt per 10-K (Page 45)\nThe worst metric, in my opinion, Apple has is a 1.7 debt-to-equity ratio. However, on that figure, my mind may be stuck in a good days of positive interest rates. Much of Apple's $109B of debt is at a negligible (0.03-2%) interest rate. Higher end servicing costs sit a hair below 5%, but this makes up a minority of Apple's debt per the company's 10-K filings.\nData by YCharts\nAll of that money did not go into internal projects, however, it went to share buybacks. Perhaps no company epitomizes share buybacks like Apple has over the last decade. The company has retired hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of stock to shareholders benefit, and it continues to do so today.\nThese share buybacks are why Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) now owns 5.5% of Apple. Back when many lauded Buffett for being late to the Apple train, he has proven his conviction worthwhile and helped an already massive Berkshire portfolio continue to beat the market with this high concentration investment.\nBuffett aside, Apple does excel in several metrics one should be looking for when investing in high-quality stocks. Return on equity here sits at an eye-popping 140% due to a pandemic induced expansion in net income.\nData by YCharts\nGiven the amount of debt, return on invested capital, likely, is the better metric to take a look at here. Apple's ROIC has been consistently over the 20% mark, which is a sign of a fantastic business.\nOh, and it probably goes without mentioning, but this business is cash rich. Apple, as of its last report, has $35B in cash on hand and $155B in marketable securities (a mix of current and non-current). With $190B in capital that the company can still deploy, Apple is certainly in an enviable position.\nValuation: Rich\nThose metrics are not unknown, but they are incredible. It's no surprise that Apple will likely cross $3T market cap in the next year or so, but is the company worth buying at these high levels?\nAs mentioned above, I view Apple as an almost cash like position. In a world of inflation, Apple has the balance sheet to carry it through, it has significant pricing power, and it has exceptionally high margins on its products to be able to weather the storm. Would you rather your money lose 5% of its buying power per year, or grow in an American titan like Apple?\nImage: A mockup VR headset via BGR\nA valuation of Apple also has to include the potential for an Apple Car, or the AR/VR headsets that will be with us within the next 18-months. These types of projects have been kept well under wraps, but considering the valuations of EV manufacturers like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN), the market will reward Apple rather richly for a well-executed product.\nAn Apple car with deep iOS integration,as is speculated, would further drive the ecosystem flywheel. In fact, it would take that flywheel to unimaginable levels. Imagine trying to leave an ecosystem where you have to replace a $50K (and I'm probably being cheap) car, a phone, a computer... it's quite the lock in.\nTaking AR/VR into account, one would have to consider that AR could be a cannibalizing force for the iPhone. If one can see all they need through lenses and control those lenses through gestures or the Apple Watch, Apple could cannibalize the phone market.\nThat, however, is a good thing. Apple could price a novel item like AR glasses with higher margins than a phone. Fans and tech enthusiasts would pay that early adopter price and others would soon follow suit if the product lives up to the hype. It gets Apple out of the \"$1,000 for a phone\" line of thinking.\nData by YCharts\nAll this to say, Apple's rich valuation today is a worthy one. At a PE of ~29, it's hardly extortionate, but it is outside of Apple's average over the last five years.\nThe ecosystem, one that ties its customers in for life, is where the value lies here and Apple has plans to expand that with vehicles and wearables. Even at a PE of 29, I believe this to be a secure long-term investment that will pay investors a dividend, albeit small, along the way while continuing to retire billions of dollars in stock ($315B authorized ~10%).\nAddressing The Risks\nFear and inflation. Fear is the largest and most significant risk that Apple faces. Buyers told that bad times are coming tend to zip up their pocketbooks. Buyers who have to spend 10% more on groceries suddenly don't have enough to buy the latest iPhone.\nThese are external concerns that Apple has little control over. The company has, over the years, introduced buy-now-pay-later and subscription programs that help buyers get the goods they want at an affordable monthly price, and, as discussed, Apple has substantial margins that it could use to overcome significant headwinds in this space.\nExecution is another risk Apple faces, especially as we look to these \"futuristic\" products. A self-driving car could be worth trillions of dollars in lifetime revenues, or it could be a dud upon release that never gets full approval to operate on the streets. Likewise, an AR headset that no one wants to be seen wearing, or that proves difficult to wear through the day, could be a dead-on-arrival product.\nGiven the nature of these two products and the secrecy surrounding their development, one cannot truly assign a real risk rating to them. They're just things to be aware of. Apple does have a history of great execution (MacBook keyboard and Touch Bar aside), however, so an investor should feel at least somewhat comfortable that the company will put its best foot forward.\nFinal Thoughts\nAt a valuation nearing $3T one would assume there isn't much room left to run in Apple, but investors still stand to beat the overall market in this name thanks to excellent capital allocation.\nApple has $315B in authorized buybacks and returns some $14.5B in dividends each year. Apple will likely buyback close to $100B in stock during its 2022 fiscal year which, alone, represents a 3.7% return on today's prices. Combined with a dividend yield of 0.6%, investors will make 4.3% on this name through shareholder friendly practices alone.\nThose numbers will compound too, another $100B in 2023, $100B in 2024, it all adds up. That $300B is all authorized too.\nAlong with those buybacks and dividends, investors are buying into a company that, last year, defied laws of large numbers and grew its top-line at 33%. While unlikely this year, I still expect that the wearables and services divisions will grow at double digits which will allow Apple to see high single-digit revenue growth through the coming 3-5 years.\nThose with a bearish view on Apple act as though this juggernaut will vanish overnight, but that's simply not true. Sure, you're unlikely to pull down 30%+ annual returns going forward, but if you're looking for a high-quality stable business that can beat the market little-by-little, Apple is a great horse (or car) to back.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/606501676"}