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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":607062161,"tweetId":"607062161","gmtCreate":1639459643079,"gmtModify":1639459643230,"author":{"id":3569971237956537,"idStr":"3569971237956537","authorId":3569971237956537,"authorIdStr":"3569971237956537","name":"5D1T2","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4337cbcb700e1df3423e15a36e4d89b2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":13,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607062161","repostId":1119480728,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119480728","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639459363,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1119480728?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 13:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：所有订户并非生来平等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119480728","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced ba","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li> <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li> <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li> <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS 尚未从 2020 年完全恢复，但它肯定正在愈合。</li><li>DIS 更像 NFLX，而不是 MSFT 或 ADBE，尽管有任何与用户增长和相关指标相关的讨论或比较。</li><li>DIS 远没有 NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 那么成长型股票。</li></ul>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.<blockquote>我从2016年初开始拥有迪士尼（DIS）。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对 DIS 股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.<blockquote>5 年内 53% 的涨幅并不可怕，但也不惊人。为了增加视角，让我们快速比较一下10年左右的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.<blockquote>正如你所看到的，我放大了，以获得更大的视图。显然，QQQ已经粉碎了DIS。与此同时，DIS 的表现和SPDR标普500指数ETF一样好。很明显，2020 年 DIS 股价的艰难时期。然而，这也是迪士尼+业务的一个令人难以置信的支点机会，迪士尼+是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote> Business Model Update<blockquote>商业模式更新</blockquote> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:<blockquote>很明显，DIS一直非常关注Disney Plus的用户。以下是 2021 年第四季度盈利看涨期权的快速一瞥：</blockquote> On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%. Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.<blockquote>在直接面向消费者的方面，我们对我们的流媒体服务组合的成功感到非常满意。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万用户，总订阅量为1.79亿。为了正确看待这一增长，仅在上一财年，我们的 DTC 产品组合的订阅总数就增长了 48%，尤其是 Disney+ 订阅用户增长了 60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS 领导层计划到 2024 财年末在全球范围内拥有 2.3 亿至 2.6 亿付费用户。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。DIS 预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到 2024 年才能实现盈利。哎哟。</blockquote> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.<blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地依靠Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，并在底线上增加利润。相反，达到目前的订户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，会很多年都很糟糕。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.<blockquote>当然，非常长期的投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，没有一家公司靠近。这个图书馆是惊人的，巨大的，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:<blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计从2020年开始会有更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们对 2021 年 8 月出勤率的了解：</blockquote> Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp; running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author] Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.<blockquote>迪士尼世界既不透露其实际容量，也不透露他们每天接待的游客数量。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，平均每天参加人数估计为57,000人。因此，目前它每天最多可能接待35000名客人以35%的容量运行.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对 DIS 流媒体服务的期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote> Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe<blockquote>迪士尼不是微软或Adobe</blockquote> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.<blockquote>分析师喜欢把DIS比作企业软件公司，就好像所有订户都是平等的一样让我们考虑两个不可思议的企业。与 DIS 相比，微软 (MSFT) 和 Adobe (ADBE) 近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:<blockquote>显然，MSFT 和 ADBE 击败了 DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.<blockquote>MSFT 和 ADBE 的市盈率大约翻了一番。在较高水平上，MSFT 和 ADBE 的价格上涨速度快于收入上涨速度。与此同时，投资者对 DIS 收入的重视程度降低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:<blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去 10 年，MSFT 的盈利每年增长 17%。2015 年，每股收益为 2.63 美元，2021 年约为 8 美元。过去 10 年，ADBE 的盈利每年增长约 29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS 的样子如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FASTgraphs<blockquote>资料来源：FASTgraphs</blockquote> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.<blockquote>每股收益可能会在 2023 年恢复到 2015 年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS 的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.<blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力很强。该公司不会突然从地球表面消失。生意太棒了.</blockquote> All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>并非所有订户都是平等的</blockquote> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.<blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这里是网飞（NFLX）对DIS。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.<blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX 股东比 DIS 股东做得好得多。从不同的角度来看，以下是 10,000 美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.<blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS“正在出售”。虽然我认为 DIS 是一只成长型股票，它不是一只成长型股票比 NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 都要好。</blockquote> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:<blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这都是关于我们对订户的定义。我一会儿再回来。首先，看看这个：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.<blockquote>您看到的是 DIS、NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 的利润率。坦率地说，这描绘了一幅灾难性的DIS画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是 MSFT 和 ADBE 如何保持持续高且不断增长的利润率。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也越来越强。</blockquote> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.<blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在超过50了。但是，与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote> Wrap Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.<blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX 在内容上的花费比 DIS 更多，而且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和根基。很多人同时拥有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX似乎做得很出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。很难看到这张图表就对NFLX不屑一顾。显然，这是一家经营良好的公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.<blockquote>下一张图表噪音极大，但你可以向下滚动，用自己的双眼看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.<blockquote>公平地说，DIS 在 2019 年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，下降似乎在 2020 年之前就开始了我们不能将净资产收益率、资产收益率和投资回报率的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.<blockquote>需要明确的是， DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote> Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year. Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.<blockquote>迪士尼计划到 2022 年将其整体内容支出增加到 330 亿美元左右，比上一年增加 80 亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote> Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million. In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.<blockquote>Disney+预计将在2021年至2026年间增加1.4亿订户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix 同期将增加 5300 万订户，使 2026 年的订户总数达到 2.75 亿。简而言之，DIS 不会被 NFLX 抛弃。将制作60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧节目。这里真的有太多的东西要列出来。DIS正在把钱投入使用。</blockquote> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.<blockquote>现在，换个话题，我不得不说，MSFT 和 ADBE 的用户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是想要的，不需要.</blockquote> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:<blockquote>以下是思考 MSFT 和 ADBE 的好方法：</blockquote> Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard. In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.<blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并没有“上瘾”这个软件，尽管他们需要用它来完成工作当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE都是B2B。就用户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们是出于需要而粘的，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何思考DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.<blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一个很棒的企业。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长，或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是一个合理的持有量。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Disney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：所有订户并非生来平等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDisney: All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>迪士尼：所有订户并非生来平等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-14 13:22\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>QQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.</li> <li>DIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.</li> <li>DIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.</li> <li>DIS has been far less of a growth stock than&nbsp;NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db18b8191ffe57bbd7ff43b3b4de329b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>QQQ轻松击败了DIS，而SPDR标普500指数ETF也做了同样的事情。</li><li>DIS 尚未从 2020 年完全恢复，但它肯定正在愈合。</li><li>DIS 更像 NFLX，而不是 MSFT 或 ADBE，尽管有任何与用户增长和相关指标相关的讨论或比较。</li><li>DIS 远没有 NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 那么成长型股票。</li></ul>Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Background<blockquote>背景</blockquote> I've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.<blockquote>我从2016年初开始拥有迪士尼（DIS）。我非常喜欢DIS的产品和服务。我对 DIS 股票的表现相当满意。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58048f15fcf1af89506563ab33f6e301\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> 53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.<blockquote>5 年内 53% 的涨幅并不可怕，但也不惊人。为了增加视角，让我们快速比较一下10年左右的标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）和纳斯达克100（QQQ）。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de2cb75ad2becfcf9268f372150a7698\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> As you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.<blockquote>正如你所看到的，我放大了，以获得更大的视图。显然，QQQ已经粉碎了DIS。与此同时，DIS 的表现和SPDR标普500指数ETF一样好。很明显，2020 年 DIS 股价的艰难时期。然而，这也是迪士尼+业务的一个令人难以置信的支点机会，迪士尼+是迪士尼、皮克斯、漫威、星球大战、国家地理等的流媒体之家。</blockquote> Business Model Update<blockquote>商业模式更新</blockquote> It's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the&nbsp;Q4 2021 Earnings Call:<blockquote>很明显，DIS一直非常关注Disney Plus的用户。以下是 2021 年第四季度盈利看涨期权的快速一瞥：</blockquote> On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%. Now, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.<blockquote>在直接面向消费者的方面，我们对我们的流媒体服务组合的成功感到非常满意。Disney+、ESPN+和Hulu继续表现出色，分别拥有1.181亿、1710万和4380万用户，总订阅量为1.79亿。为了正确看待这一增长，仅在上一财年，我们的 DTC 产品组合的订阅总数就增长了 48%，尤其是 Disney+ 订阅用户增长了 60%。现在，这是好消息和坏消息。DIS 领导层计划到 2024 财年末在全球范围内拥有 2.3 亿至 2.6 亿付费用户。显然，这是惊人的增长，投资者应该欢呼。然而，阴暗面是这种增长不是免费的。DIS 预计他们的流媒体服务组合要到 2024 年才能实现盈利。哎哟。</blockquote> The key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.<blockquote>关键是，DIS并不是简单地依靠Disney Plus、ESPN Plus、Hulu等，并在底线上增加利润。相反，达到目前的订户水平一直在消耗时间和资源。而且，会很多年都很糟糕。这项投资会耗尽资源。稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote> Of course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.<blockquote>当然，非常长期的投资者可以欢呼。DIS拥有世界上最好的知识媒体资产。真的，没有一家公司靠近。这个图书馆是惊人的，巨大的，而且还在增长。你自己看吧。</blockquote> As a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about&nbsp;attendance in August 2021:<blockquote>顺便说一句，大多数人和大多数分析师预计从2020年开始会有更大的“snap回归”，特别是在公园参观和相关活动方面。例如，以下是我们对 2021 年 8 月出勤率的了解：</blockquote> Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily&nbsp; running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author] Big picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.<blockquote>迪士尼世界既不透露其实际容量，也不透露他们每天接待的游客数量。但如上所述，在疫情开始之前，平均每天参加人数估计为57,000人。因此，目前它每天最多可能接待35000名客人以35%的容量运行.[强调：作者]总的来说，我不太担心DIS提供的公园和相关的现实世界体验。全速运行可能需要更长的时间，但DIS可以做到。我更担心的是，投资者对 DIS 流媒体服务的期望过高，而没有充分考虑成本。对于短期投资者和投机者来说尤其如此。</blockquote> Disney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe<blockquote>迪士尼不是微软或Adobe</blockquote> Analysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.<blockquote>分析师喜欢把DIS比作企业软件公司，就好像所有订户都是平等的一样让我们考虑两个不可思议的企业。与 DIS 相比，微软 (MSFT) 和 Adobe (ADBE) 近年来的表现都非常出色。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247db57795d4cce4d0d919346b84c7f2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Clearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:<blockquote>显然，MSFT 和 ADBE 击败了 DIS。部分原因如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f90248d3aef70628dea5b4029b79b516\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> P/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.<blockquote>MSFT 和 ADBE 的市盈率大约翻了一番。在较高水平上，MSFT 和 ADBE 的价格上涨速度快于收入上涨速度。与此同时，投资者对 DIS 收入的重视程度降低。DIS几乎已经横向移动。</blockquote> Let's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:<blockquote>我们来谈谈一些真实的数字。过去 10 年，MSFT 的盈利每年增长 17%。2015 年，每股收益为 2.63 美元，2021 年约为 8 美元。过去 10 年，ADBE 的盈利每年增长约 29%。2015年，每股收益为2.08美元，预计今年将达到惊人的12.46美元。同时，DIS 的样子如下：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbb56eaa4d09a70ca4f320a0e111896b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FASTgraphs<blockquote>资料来源：FASTgraphs</blockquote> EPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.<blockquote>每股收益可能会在 2023 年恢复到 2015 年的水平。股息被取消了。即使是现在，与盈利相比，DIS 的股价也要高得多。这张图表里有很多痛苦。</blockquote> All if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.<blockquote>如果这不是为了抨击DIS或暗示产品或业务很糟糕的话。DIS品牌是原始的。领导力很强。该公司不会突然从地球表面消失。生意太棒了.</blockquote> All Subscribers Are Not Created Equal<blockquote>并非所有订户都是平等的</blockquote> I'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.<blockquote>我不太热衷于这样做，但这里是网飞（NFLX）对DIS。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55b99727d2cfebd285167f115f4387ae\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> The only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.<blockquote>我唯一想说的是，NFLX 股东比 DIS 股东做得好得多。从不同的角度来看，以下是 10,000 美元在过去五年中的表现。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4539b42cb1304e691ad2b38dbcbf4c2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> It's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock&nbsp;than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.<blockquote>当我看到过去五年相对平淡的表现时，我很难说DIS“正在出售”。虽然我认为 DIS 是一只成长型股票，它不是一只成长型股票比 NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 都要好。</blockquote> In large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:<blockquote>在很大程度上，我相信这都是关于我们对订户的定义。我一会儿再回来。首先，看看这个：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfdf6d35c4eba3617e6fec280f09282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> What you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.<blockquote>您看到的是 DIS、NFLX、MSFT 和 ADBE 的利润率。坦率地说，这描绘了一幅灾难性的DIS画面，尤其是自2020年以来。另一方面，最令人印象深刻的是 MSFT 和 ADBE 如何保持持续高且不断增长的利润率。我不得不说，我实际上有点惊讶NFLX在这个部门也越来越强。</blockquote> By the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.<blockquote>顺便说一句，作为侧边栏，很容易抱怨NFLX市盈率。现在超过50了。但是，与此同时，DIS为37，MSFT为37，ADBE为52。在这方面，它们都被高估了。</blockquote> Wrap Up<blockquote>包装</blockquote> Now, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.<blockquote>现在，以下是我最大的观点。NFLX 在内容上的花费比 DIS 更多，而且还拥有先发优势、忠诚度和根基。很多人同时拥有NFLX和DIS，所以我比大多数人看到的“战争”更少。此外，NFLX似乎做得很出色，他们的资本配置也很强劲。很难看到这张图表就对NFLX不屑一顾。显然，这是一家经营良好的公司。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c9d98acfdd8206fa2c0323144db713\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.<blockquote>下一张图表噪音极大，但你可以向下滚动，用自己的双眼看到真相。与NFLX、MSFT和ADBE相比，DIS的ROE、ROA和ROIC相当差。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5aaf232d38eaceea4d9621f81a7a92f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> To be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.<blockquote>公平地说，DIS 在 2019 年初做得相当不错。然而，非常重要的是，下降似乎在 2020 年之前就开始了我们不能将净资产收益率、资产收益率和投资回报率的下降归咎于疫情。</blockquote> To be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.<blockquote>需要明确的是， DIS将在内容上大放异彩。</blockquote> Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year. Furthermore, the idea is that DIS will be&nbsp;rapidly growing the subscriber base.<blockquote>迪士尼计划到 2022 年将其整体内容支出增加到 330 亿美元左右，比上一年增加 80 亿美元。此外，这个想法是DIS将迅速扩大用户群。</blockquote> Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million. In short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.<blockquote>Disney+预计将在2021年至2026年间增加1.4亿订户，使其总数达到2.71亿。与此同时，Netflix 同期将增加 5300 万订户，使 2026 年的订户总数达到 2.75 亿。简而言之，DIS 不会被 NFLX 抛弃。将制作60部无剧本系列、30部喜剧系列和25部戏剧节目。这里真的有太多的东西要列出来。DIS正在把钱投入使用。</blockquote> Now, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.<blockquote>现在，换个话题，我不得不说，MSFT 和 ADBE 的用户类型截然不同。DIS和NFLX满足娱乐欲望。这些都是想要的，不需要.</blockquote> Here's a good way to&nbsp;think about MSFT and ADBE:<blockquote>以下是思考 MSFT 和 ADBE 的好方法：</blockquote> Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard. In other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.<blockquote>自大流行以来，两家公司都为大大小小的企业提供了维持业务所需的工具。随着世界转向虚拟工作和学校，带有虚拟签名的PDF和包含重要信息的Word文档成为标准。换句话说，MSFT和ADBE的用户并没有“上瘾”这个软件，尽管他们需要用它来完成工作当你的工作岌岌可危时，你必须使用行业标准的工具。此外，NFLX和DIS都是B2C，而MSFT和ADBE都是B2B。就用户而言，几乎不可能比较这些公司。当然，我们可以讨论用户数量、用户增长等等。但是，MSFT和ADBE向公司提供软件，用户必须使用这些工具。它们是出于需要而粘的，而不仅仅是欲望。因此，让我们都非常小心我们如何思考DIS，以及我们如何进行比较。</blockquote> Putting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.<blockquote>综上所述，我仍然相信DIS是一个很棒的企业。然而，我会对增加一吨持谨慎态度，特别是如果这个决定是基于令人眼花缭乱的订户增长，或令人难以置信的内容开发。在这一点上，我认为DIS是一个合理的持有量。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DIS":"迪士尼"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475050-disney-all-subscribers-are-not-created-equal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119480728","content_text":"Summary\n\nQQQ has easily beaten DIS whereas SPY has done about the same.\nDIS has not fully bounced back from 2020 but it's certainly healing.\nDIS is far more like NFLX than MSFT or ADBE, despite any discussion or comparisons related to subscriber growth and associated metrics.\nDIS has been far less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\n\nMarvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBackground\nI've owned Disney (DIS) since early 2016. I greatly enjoy DIS products and services. I am reasonably pleased with DIS stock performance.\nData by YCharts\n53% gains in 5 years isn't terrible but it's not spectacular either. For added perspective, let's quickly compare DIS with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over 10 years or so.\nData by YCharts\nAs you can see, I zoomed out for a bigger picture view of things. Clearly, QQQ has crushed DIS. Over the same time, DIS has done about as well as SPY. It's clear the 2020 was rough on the price of DIS stock. However, it was also an incredible pivot opportunity for the business with Disney Plus, the streaming home of Disney, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars, National Geographic, and way more.\nBusiness Model Update\nIt's clear that DIS has been incredibly focused on subscribers for Disney Plus. Here's a quick peek, from the Q4 2021 Earnings Call:\n\n On the Direct-to-Consumer side, we are extremely pleased with the success of our portfolio streaming services. Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu continue to perform incredibly well with a 118.1 million, 17.1 million, and 43.8 million subscribers, respectively, for a total of a 179 million subscriptions. To put this growth in perspective, in the past fiscal year alone, we have grown the total number of subscriptions across our DTC portfolio by 48%, and Disney+ subs in particular by 60%.\n\nNow, here's the good news and bad news. DIS leadership is planning to reach 230 million to 260 million paid subscribers globally by the end of fiscal year 2024. Obviously, that's phenomenal growth and investors should cheer. However, the dark side is that this growth isn't free.DIS doesn't expect their portfolio of streaming services to reach profitability until 2024.Ouch.\nThe key point is that DIS is not simply bolting on Disney Plus, ESPN Plus, Hulu and so on, and adding profits to the bottom line. Instead, getting to this current level of subscribers has been chewing up time and resources. And, it'll be nasty for years. The investment will drain resources. More about this later.\nOf course, very long term investors can cheer. DIS literally has the best intellectual media assets in the world. Really, there isn't any company even close. The library is amazing, huge, and growing.See for yourself.\nAs a quick aside, most people, and most analysts expected a bigger \"snap back\" from 2020, especially in relation to park visits and related activity. For example, here's what we learned about attendance in August 2021:\n\n Disney world does not share its actual capacity nor the number of attendees they get daily. But as stated above, the estimated number of average daily attendees was 57,000 before the pandemic started. So, at present, it might be welcoming a maximum of 35,000 guests daily \n running with a 35% capacity. [Emphasis: Author]\n\nBig picture, I'm not too worried about the parks and related real-world experiences offered by DIS. It might take longer to get running at full steam, but DIS can do it. I'm a bit more concerned that investors are expecting too much from DIS streaming services, without fully considering the costs. This is especially true for short term investors and speculators.\nDisney Is Not Microsoft or Adobe\nAnalysts like to compare DIS to enterprise software companies,as if all subscribers are created equal. Let's consider two incredible businesses. Both Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe (ADBE) have done exceptionally well in recent years, compared to DIS.\nData by YCharts\nClearly, MSFT and ADBE have trounced DIS. In part, here's why:\nData by YCharts\nP/S for both MSFT and ADBE has roughly doubled. At a high level, prices are moving up faster than revenue generated for MSFT and ADBE. Meanwhile, investors place less value on DIS revenue. DIS has pretty much moved sideways.\nLet's talk some real numbers. MSFT has grown earnings by 17% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.63 and in 2021 it's about $8. ADBE has grown earnings by about 29% per year over the last 10 years. In 2015, EPS was $2.08 and it's expected to hit a staggering $12.46 this year. Meanwhile, here's how DIS looks:\nSource: FASTgraphs\nEPS might get back to 2015 levels in 2023. The dividend was killed off. DIS share price is dramatically higher, even now, compared to earnings. There's a lot of pain in this chart.\nAll if this isn't to bash DIS or to imply that the products or business is terrible. The DIS brand is pristine. Leadership is strong. The company isn't going to suddenly fall off the face of the Earth.The business is amazing.\nAll Subscribers Are Not Created Equal\nI'm not too keen to do this, but here's Netflix (NFLX) versus DIS.\nData by YCharts\nThe only point I want to make is that NFLX shareholders have done far better than DIS shareholders. And, for a different perspective, here's how $10K would have done over the last five years.\nData by YCharts\nIt's very hard for me to say that DIS is \"on sale\" when I look at the relatively flat performance over the last five years. While I think of DIS as a growth stock,it's less of a growth stock than NFLX, MSFT, and ADBE.\nIn large part, I believe this is all about our definition of subscribers. I'll come back to that in a second. First, feast your eyes on this:\nData by YCharts\nWhat you're seeing is profit margin for DIS, NFLX, MSFT and ADBE. Quite frankly, this paints a damning picture of DIS, especially since 2020. What's most impressive, on the other hand, is how MSFT and ADBE have had has consistently high and growing profit margins. I've got to say, I'm actually a bit surprised that NFLX just keeps getting stronger and stronger in this department as well.\nBy the way, as a sidebar, it's easy to complain about the NFLX P/E ratio. It's over 50 right now. But, at the same time, DIS is at 37, MSFT is at 37, and ADBE is at 52. In that respect, they are all quite overvalued.\nWrap Up\nNow, here are my biggest points. NFLX has spent more than DIS on content and also has first mover advantage, loyalty and entrenchment. Many people have both NFLX and DIS, so I see less of a \"war\" than most people. Furthermore, it appears that NFLX has done an outstanding operational job, and their capital allocation has been strong. It's hard to look at this chart and dismiss NFLX. Clearly, it's a well-run company.\nData by YCharts\nThis next chart is extremely noisy, but you can scroll down and see the truth with your own two eyes. DIS has rather poor ROE, ROA and ROIC compared to NFLX, MSFT and ADBE.\nData by YCharts\nTo be fair, DIS was doing a pretty good job through early 2019. However, very importantly,the drops appear to have started before 2020. We cannot blame the pandemic for the decline in ROE, ROA and ROIC.\nTo be clear,DIS is going to be going gangbusters on content.\n\n Disney plans to increase its overall content spend to around $33bn in 2022, marking an $8bn rise from the previous year.\n\nFurthermore, the idea is that DIS will be rapidly growing the subscriber base.\n\n Disney+ is expected to add 140 million subscribers between 2021 and 2026 to take its total to 271 million. Netflix, meanwhile, will add 53 million subscribers through the same period, taking it to a 2026 total of 275 million.\n\nIn short, DIS isn't about to be left in the dust by NFLX. Something like 60 unscripted series, 30 comedy series and 25 drama shows will be produced. There's really too much to list here. Money is being put to work by DIS.\nNow, shifting gears, I have to say that both MSFT and ADBE have dramatically different types of subscribers. DIS and NFLX satisfy entertainment desires. These are wants,not needs.\nHere's a good way to think about MSFT and ADBE:\n\n Both companies armed businesses big and small with the tools needed to stay in business since the pandemic. As the world moved to virtual work and school, PDFs with virtual signatures and Word docs with important information became standard.\n\nIn other words, MSFT and ADBE subscribers aren't \"addicted\" to the software, as much as they arerequired to use it to do work. When your job is on the line, you've got to be using industry standard tools. Furthermore, both NFLX and DIS are B2C whereas MSFT and ADBE are B2B. It's almost impossible to compare these companies, in terms of subscribers. Sure, we can discuss subscriber counts, subscriber growth, and so forth. But, MSFT and ADBE provide software to companies, and users must use those tools. They are sticky out of necessity, not mere desire. Therefore, let's all be very careful about how we think about DIS, and how we make comparisons.\nPutting all of this together, I still believe that DIS is a wonderful business. However, I would be cautious about adding a ton, especially if that decision is based on dazzling subscriber growth, or incredible content development. At this point, I see DIS as a reasonable hold.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DIS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1242,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/607062161"}