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2021-12-14
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FOMC preview: Is the Fed behind the curve on inflation?<blockquote>FOMC预览：美联储在通胀问题上落后了吗？</blockquote>
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On Friday, the Consumer Price Index showed prices rising by 6.8% year-over-year in November— the fastest pace seen since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>随着通胀压力持续上升，美联储观察人士预计，制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将倾向于更快的时间表。周五，消费者价格指数显示，11月份物价同比上涨6.8%，为1982年以来的最快涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> For the Fed, which had insisted for most of 2021 that high inflationary readings would be “transitory,”the concern is that it may have to play catch-up to quell any fears of further inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于美联储来说，美联储在2021年的大部分时间里一直坚称高通胀数据将是“暂时的”，令人担忧的是，它可能不得不迎头赶上，以平息对进一步通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “If the market perceives that the Fed is behind the curve in controlling inflation, it would lead to higher inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, potentially weakening the dollar and pressuring asset values,” said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪投资者服务高级副总裁Madhavi Bokil表示：“如果市场认为美联储在控制通胀方面落后于曲线，将导致通胀预期和长期利率上升，可能会削弱美元并给资产价值带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his other colleagues on the FOMC have already pledged to address any inflation that would jeopardize the economic recovery — pointing to the possibility of more hastily ending the Fed’s asset purchase program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔和他在FOMC的其他同事已经承诺解决任何会危及经济复苏的通胀问题——这表明美联储有可能更仓促地结束资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “If things continue to do what they've been doing, then I would completely support an accelerated pace of tapering,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance on Nov. 23.</p><p><blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利(Mary Daly)11月23日对雅虎财经表示：“如果事情继续像以前那样发展，那么我完全支持加快缩减步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open to signal its commitment to easy money policies.</p><p><blockquote>自疫情最严重时期以来，美联储一直在公开场合购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券，以表明其对宽松货币政策的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed was pacing those purchases at a clip of about $120 billion per month until November, when the FOMC charted a path for gradually “tapering” those purchases to a full stop by the middle of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直以每月约1200亿美元的速度进行这些购买，直到11月份，FOMC制定了一条到2022年中期逐步“缩减”这些购买的路径。</blockquote></p><p> But Fed officials will now debate the merits of a speedier wind down that could wrap up asset purchases as soon as the first quarter of next year.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储官员现在将讨论更快退出的好处，最快可能在明年第一季度结束资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ask the curve itself</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问曲线本身</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckily, the Fed can consult the curve. The yield curve, which maps out the yields of U.S. Treasuries across different durations, serves as a proxy for investor bets on future growth prospects. Generally speaking, higher longer-term bond yields (and a steeper curve) correspond with optimism over longer-term conditions.</p><p><blockquote>幸运的是，美联储可以参考曲线。收益率曲线描绘了不同期限的美国国债收益率，是投资者对未来增长前景押注的代表。一般来说，较高的长期债券收益率（和较陡的曲线）对应于对长期状况的乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> But several yield curve measures show a flatter yield curve. For example, the difference between the U.S. 2-year and the U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell to as little as 75 basis points at the beginning of the month. When that difference falls below 0, markets usually brace for a recession.</p><p><blockquote>但几项收益率曲线指标显示收益率曲线更加平坦。例如，美国2年期和美国10年期国债之间的利差在月初一度降至75个基点。当这一差异降至0以下时，市场通常会为衰退做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dacb1032cbd03a7bcb3e9208176da1e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“From the Fed’s perspective, a flat or inverted yield curve is undesirable,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理美洲首席投资官Solita Marcelli表示：“从美联储的角度来看，收益率曲线平坦或倒挂是不可取的。”</blockquote></p><p> Marcelli said one reading of the flatter yield curve is the expectation that the Fed is behind the curve, and will need to pump on the brakes abruptly (via interest rate hikes) to stop inflation.</p><p><blockquote>马塞利表示，收益率曲线趋平的一个解读是，人们预期美联储落后于曲线，需要突然踩刹车（通过加息）来阻止通胀。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance that he’s not so sure the Fed is all that behind the curve. Feroli said if the Fed had hiked interest rates as early as this year, the strength of the economic reopening would have led to only “moderately lower” inflation.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利告诉雅虎财经，他不太确定美联储是否落后于形势。Feroli表示，如果美联储早在今年就加息，经济重新开放的力度只会导致通胀“适度下降”。</blockquote></p><p> “They are a little behind the curve, but they can catch up to the curve, I’m quite sure of that,” Feroli said Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“他们有点落后于曲线，但他们可以赶上曲线，我很确定，”费罗利周一表示。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with the policy statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC会议于周二开始，周三结束，政策声明将于周三下午2点发布。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC preview: Is the Fed behind the curve on inflation?<blockquote>FOMC预览：美联储在通胀问题上落后了吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC preview: Is the Fed behind the curve on inflation?<blockquote>FOMC预览：美联储在通胀问题上落后了吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 19:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How fast does the Federal Reserve want to move on drawing down its pandemic-era stimulus?</p><p><blockquote>美联储希望多快取消大流行时期的刺激措施？</blockquote></p><p> That’s the question that Fed officials will have to answer in its two-day meeting kicking off Tuesday, where the major discussion will focus on the pace of the central bank’s wind down of its asset purchase program.</p><p><blockquote>这是美联储官员在周二开始的为期两天的会议上必须回答的问题，会议的主要讨论将集中在央行结束资产购买计划的步伐上。</blockquote></p><p> With inflationary pressures continuing to rise, Fed watchers expect the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lean into a speedier timeline. On Friday, the Consumer Price Index showed prices rising by 6.8% year-over-year in November— the fastest pace seen since 1982.</p><p><blockquote>随着通胀压力持续上升，美联储观察人士预计，制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将倾向于更快的时间表。周五，消费者价格指数显示，11月份物价同比上涨6.8%，为1982年以来的最快涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> For the Fed, which had insisted for most of 2021 that high inflationary readings would be “transitory,”the concern is that it may have to play catch-up to quell any fears of further inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于美联储来说，美联储在2021年的大部分时间里一直坚称高通胀数据将是“暂时的”，令人担忧的是，它可能不得不迎头赶上，以平息对进一步通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “If the market perceives that the Fed is behind the curve in controlling inflation, it would lead to higher inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, potentially weakening the dollar and pressuring asset values,” said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service.</p><p><blockquote>穆迪投资者服务高级副总裁Madhavi Bokil表示：“如果市场认为美联储在控制通胀方面落后于曲线，将导致通胀预期和长期利率上升，可能会削弱美元并给资产价值带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his other colleagues on the FOMC have already pledged to address any inflation that would jeopardize the economic recovery — pointing to the possibility of more hastily ending the Fed’s asset purchase program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔和他在FOMC的其他同事已经承诺解决任何会危及经济复苏的通胀问题——这表明美联储有可能更仓促地结束资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> “If things continue to do what they've been doing, then I would completely support an accelerated pace of tapering,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance on Nov. 23.</p><p><blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利(Mary Daly)11月23日对雅虎财经表示：“如果事情继续像以前那样发展，那么我完全支持加快缩减步伐。”</blockquote></p><p> Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open to signal its commitment to easy money policies.</p><p><blockquote>自疫情最严重时期以来，美联储一直在公开场合购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券，以表明其对宽松货币政策的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed was pacing those purchases at a clip of about $120 billion per month until November, when the FOMC charted a path for gradually “tapering” those purchases to a full stop by the middle of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>美联储一直以每月约1200亿美元的速度进行这些购买，直到11月份，FOMC制定了一条到2022年中期逐步“缩减”这些购买的路径。</blockquote></p><p> But Fed officials will now debate the merits of a speedier wind down that could wrap up asset purchases as soon as the first quarter of next year.</p><p><blockquote>但美联储官员现在将讨论更快退出的好处，最快可能在明年第一季度结束资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ask the curve itself</b></p><p><blockquote><b>问曲线本身</b></blockquote></p><p> Luckily, the Fed can consult the curve. The yield curve, which maps out the yields of U.S. Treasuries across different durations, serves as a proxy for investor bets on future growth prospects. Generally speaking, higher longer-term bond yields (and a steeper curve) correspond with optimism over longer-term conditions.</p><p><blockquote>幸运的是，美联储可以参考曲线。收益率曲线描绘了不同期限的美国国债收益率，是投资者对未来增长前景押注的代表。一般来说，较高的长期债券收益率（和较陡的曲线）对应于对长期状况的乐观情绪。</blockquote></p><p> But several yield curve measures show a flatter yield curve. For example, the difference between the U.S. 2-year and the U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell to as little as 75 basis points at the beginning of the month. When that difference falls below 0, markets usually brace for a recession.</p><p><blockquote>但几项收益率曲线指标显示收益率曲线更加平坦。例如，美国2年期和美国10年期国债之间的利差在月初一度降至75个基点。当这一差异降至0以下时，市场通常会为衰退做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dacb1032cbd03a7bcb3e9208176da1e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“From the Fed’s perspective, a flat or inverted yield curve is undesirable,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银全球财富管理美洲首席投资官Solita Marcelli表示：“从美联储的角度来看，收益率曲线平坦或倒挂是不可取的。”</blockquote></p><p> Marcelli said one reading of the flatter yield curve is the expectation that the Fed is behind the curve, and will need to pump on the brakes abruptly (via interest rate hikes) to stop inflation.</p><p><blockquote>马塞利表示，收益率曲线趋平的一个解读是，人们预期美联储落后于曲线，需要突然踩刹车（通过加息）来阻止通胀。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance that he’s not so sure the Fed is all that behind the curve. Feroli said if the Fed had hiked interest rates as early as this year, the strength of the economic reopening would have led to only “moderately lower” inflation.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席经济学家迈克尔·费罗利告诉雅虎财经，他不太确定美联储是否落后于形势。Feroli表示，如果美联储早在今年就加息，经济重新开放的力度只会导致通胀“适度下降”。</blockquote></p><p> “They are a little behind the curve, but they can catch up to the curve, I’m quite sure of that,” Feroli said Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“他们有点落后于曲线，但他们可以赶上曲线，我很确定，”费罗利周一表示。</blockquote></p><p> The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with the policy statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>FOMC会议于周二开始，周三结束，政策声明将于周三下午2点发布。美国东部时间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-2021-fomc-preview-federal-reserve-100713885.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-2021-fomc-preview-federal-reserve-100713885.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189272541","content_text":"How fast does the Federal Reserve want to move on drawing down its pandemic-era stimulus?\nThat’s the question that Fed officials will have to answer in its two-day meeting kicking off Tuesday, where the major discussion will focus on the pace of the central bank’s wind down of its asset purchase program.\nWith inflationary pressures continuing to rise, Fed watchers expect the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lean into a speedier timeline. On Friday, the Consumer Price Index showed prices rising by 6.8% year-over-year in November— the fastest pace seen since 1982.\nFor the Fed, which had insisted for most of 2021 that high inflationary readings would be “transitory,”the concern is that it may have to play catch-up to quell any fears of further inflation.\n“If the market perceives that the Fed is behind the curve in controlling inflation, it would lead to higher inflation expectations and long-term interest rates, potentially weakening the dollar and pressuring asset values,” said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president at Moody’s Investors Service.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell and his other colleagues on the FOMC have already pledged to address any inflation that would jeopardize the economic recovery — pointing to the possibility of more hastily ending the Fed’s asset purchase program.\n“If things continue to do what they've been doing, then I would completely support an accelerated pace of tapering,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Yahoo Finance on Nov. 23.\nSince the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities in the open to signal its commitment to easy money policies.\nThe Fed was pacing those purchases at a clip of about $120 billion per month until November, when the FOMC charted a path for gradually “tapering” those purchases to a full stop by the middle of 2022.\nBut Fed officials will now debate the merits of a speedier wind down that could wrap up asset purchases as soon as the first quarter of next year.\nAsk the curve itself\nLuckily, the Fed can consult the curve. The yield curve, which maps out the yields of U.S. Treasuries across different durations, serves as a proxy for investor bets on future growth prospects. Generally speaking, higher longer-term bond yields (and a steeper curve) correspond with optimism over longer-term conditions.\nBut several yield curve measures show a flatter yield curve. For example, the difference between the U.S. 2-year and the U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell to as little as 75 basis points at the beginning of the month. When that difference falls below 0, markets usually brace for a recession.\n“From the Fed’s perspective, a flat or inverted yield curve is undesirable,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.\nMarcelli said one reading of the flatter yield curve is the expectation that the Fed is behind the curve, and will need to pump on the brakes abruptly (via interest rate hikes) to stop inflation.\nJPMorgan Chief Economist Michael Feroli told Yahoo Finance that he’s not so sure the Fed is all that behind the curve. Feroli said if the Fed had hiked interest rates as early as this year, the strength of the economic reopening would have led to only “moderately lower” inflation.\n“They are a little behind the curve, but they can catch up to the curve, I’m quite sure of that,” Feroli said Monday.\nThe FOMC meeting begins Tuesday and concludes Wednesday, with the policy statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/607948878"}
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