MaMaMonkey
2021-12-06
Hope so.
Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>
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Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hu","content":"<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这两种恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Insider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInsider buying says a Santa Claus rally is on the way -- here are 10 stocks they favor<blockquote>内部买盘称圣诞老人反弹即将到来——以下是他们青睐的10只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 15:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened</p><p><blockquote>当股市疲软时，公司内部人士大幅买入</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cb7144fa943d84b96ae88faa9be5533\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>MarketWatch composite/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MarketWatch综合/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Hang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.</p><p><blockquote>坚持你的股市敞口，如果可以的话增加更多。</blockquote></p><p> The twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.</p><p><blockquote>令投资者感到恐慌的两个担忧——奥密克戎新冠疫情压力和通货膨胀——都有些过头了。随着越来越多的人意识到这一点，股市应该会走高，从而导致本月晚些时候的圣诞老人反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Corporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.</p><p><blockquote>企业内部人士印证了这一观点。他们在市场疲软时大幅增加了购买。更重要的是，他们正在购买所有合适的群体——旅游、零售、能源和材料等。随着对增长的担忧消退，这些周期性领域将表现最好，内部人士也知道这一点。我没有看到任何像消费必需品这样的防御性名称。</blockquote></p><p> There are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.</p><p><blockquote>尽管标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数等较窄的指数在一些大公司的支撑下表现坚挺，但仍有很多股票便宜货，因为受到了如此大的损害。Russell 2000小盘股指数下跌超过10%，标普500等更广泛关注的指数中的大多数股票最近也在某个时候下跌超过10%。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.</p><p><blockquote>我将挑出10个受到内部人士青睐的名字，其中包括我最近在股票咨询信《重温股票》中建议的几个名字（链接在下面我的简历中）。但首先，让我们快速了解一下为什么像我这样的内部人士似乎不太担心这两种恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Omicron</b></p><p><blockquote><b>奥密克戎</b></blockquote></p><p> The concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>这里令人担忧的是，这种新变种比德尔塔变异毒株病毒更具传染性和致命性。</blockquote></p><p> The first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.</p><p><blockquote>第一种担心可能是真的。南非的病例数急剧上升，这表明它的传染性更强。不过，就杀伤力而言，奥密克戎迄今为止似乎很温和。仍有很多东西需要学习，但这是我们不断从对COVID有丰富经验的医生和卫生当局那里得到的信息。</blockquote></p><p> “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”</p><p><blockquote>拥有三十年经验的南非医生安吉丽克·库切(Angelique Coetzee)表示：“我们在南非临床上看到的情况，请记住，我正处于我执业的中心，对我们来说极其温和。”“这些都是轻微病例。我们没有收治任何人。我和我的其他同事谈过，他们也给出了同样的情况。”</blockquote></p><p> Hospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.</p><p><blockquote>哈佛大学流行病学副教授兼传染病动力学中心联席主任威廉·哈纳奇（William Hanage）表示同意，南非的住院人数“正在增加，但速度并不是令人难以置信的快”。美国卫生当局证实，奥密克戎病毒可能不会特别致命。美国疾病控制与预防中心和明尼苏达州卫生部都将迄今为止在美国发现的首例病例描述为轻度病例。</blockquote></p><p> if the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be <i>more contagious and less lethal</i>, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.</p><p><blockquote>如果奥密克戎变种是温和的，这并不奇怪。呼吸道病毒自然进化为<i>传染性更强，致命性更低</i>德国流行病学家卡尔·劳特巴赫教授指出。从病毒的角度来看，这是有道理的。如果病毒传播迅速并且不会杀死宿主，它的机会就会更大。</blockquote></p><p> On vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”</p><p><blockquote>关于疫苗“逃逸”或逃避，前美国食品和药物管理局局长Scott Gottlieb认为，目前的疫苗将通过抑制症状足以降低住院率来对抗奥密克戎病毒。“人们非常有信心保持功效，”他说。“会是同样的95%吗？也许不会，但你仍然会有有意义的功效。”</blockquote></p><p> He notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”</p><p><blockquote>他指出，mRNA疫苗公司可以在几个月内调整他们的疫苗，使其变得更好。辉瑞等疫苗公司确认加强剂会起作用，并且他们将能够为奥密克戎变种定制加强剂。杰富瑞生物技术分析师Michael Yee表示：“我们认为，辉瑞也重申，目前的增强剂可能会有效。”“2022年的新版本可能会更好。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀</b></blockquote></p><p> There’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.</p><p><blockquote>有很多理由认为通胀担忧被夸大了。这里的担忧是美联储“落后于形势”，因此它将不得不大幅加息，这可能会扼杀增长和牛市。这是不会发生的。一个迹象是大宗商品价格和运输成本一直在大幅下降。这些往往是通货膨胀的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Next, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，花点时间深入了解当前的通胀飙升。为此，请考虑亚特兰大联储将核心CPI指数的各个部分分为“灵活”类别（变化快）和“粘性”类别（变化慢）。目前，灵活成分占总体通胀的大部分。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> These prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.</p><p><blockquote>Leuthold Group市场策略师、经济学家吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)指出，这些价格在过去一年中上涨了约15%，而“粘性”价格的涨幅为3%。“虽然很麻烦，但核心CPI指数的整体上涨几乎完全是由于传统上价格波动较大，无论是上下波动，”他表示。这表明总体通胀率可能会逆转并从这里迅速下降。</blockquote></p><p> That’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.</p><p><blockquote>这是很多分析师和债市投资者的想法。根据亚特兰大联储追踪的预测，分析师预计未来两到十年通胀率将低于2%。保尔森指出，与此同时，债券市场投资者预计的10年期通胀率约为2.6%。不是很令人担忧。</blockquote></p><p> These projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.</p><p><blockquote>这些预测对我来说是有意义的，因为公司表示他们的供应链问题将在明年年中左右得到解决。与供应链问题相关的短缺是价格飙升的主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.</p><p><blockquote>最后，来自Alphabet、苹果、OpenTable和运输安全管理局的移动跟踪数据显示，美国人显着减少了在公共场合外出的次数。根据我的计算，11月30日和12月1日，美国运输安全管理局的登记人数为2019年水平的79%-81%，而前10天为85%至90%。如果流动性的减少稍微减缓了经济，这将缓解人们对通胀的担忧，以及美联储过快拿走潘趣酒碗的必要性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Insiders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>内部人士</b></blockquote></p><p> In a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年3月至10月COVID危机首次肆虐时的迷你回放中，内部人士再次站出来买入由新的COVID担忧造成的市场疲软。诚然，内部人士不是流行病学家。但他们也不是傻瓜。他们有良好的人脉网络，他们每天都能看到自己业务的基调。他们的购买集中在所有正确的领域，如周期性股票、零售、能源和工业，而不是防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Companies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.</p><p><blockquote>过去几天，内部人士大量买入的公司包括户外和零售品牌六旗娱乐公司、American Eagle Outfitters、Nordstrom和American Woodmark；达美航空和普拉亚酒店及度假村等旅游公司；埃克森美孚和EOG资源等能源公司；以及克利夫兰悬崖和猎户座工程碳等材料名称。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ho, ho, ho!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>嗬，嗬，嗬！</b></blockquote></p><p> Their buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.</p><p><blockquote>他们的购买证实了季节性和交易专家拉里·威廉姆斯的工作，他告诉我，他的工作得出的结论是，我们可以期待本月晚些时候再次出现“圣诞老人”反弹。我们会看到的，但由于两个主要的恐惧是虚假的恐惧，需要一点时间才能完全消退，这对我来说是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OEC":"Orion Engineered Carbons","XOM":"埃克森美孚","JWN":"诺德斯特龙","SIX":"Six Flags Entertainment Corp","PLYA":"Playa Hotels & Resorts NV","DAL":"达美航空","AEO":"美鹰服饰","EOG":"依欧格资源","CLF":"克利夫兰克里夫","AMWD":"美国伍德马克"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/insider-buying-says-a-santa-claus-rally-is-on-the-way-here-are-10-stocks-they-favor-11638541634?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2188576930","content_text":"Corporate insiders stepped up buying considerably when the stock market weakened\nMarketWatch composite/Getty Images\nHang on to your stock-market exposure and add more if you can.\nThe twin fears spooking investors – the omicron COVID strain and inflation – are overdone. Stocks should proceed higher as more people figure this out, leading to a Santa Claus rally later this month.\nCorporate insiders confirm this view. They’ve stepped up buying considerably in the market weakness. What’s more they’re buying all the right groups – travel, retail, energy and materials, among others. These are the cyclical areas that’ll do the best as worries about growth recede, and insiders know it. I don’t see any hunkering down in defensive names like consumer staples.\nThere are lots of stock bargains because there’s been so much damage, even if narrower indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have hung tough, propped up by a few large names. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 10%, and most stocks in the more widely followed indexes like the S&P 500 have also fallen more than 10% at some point recently.\nI’ll single out 10 names favored by insiders, including several I’ve recently suggested in my stock advisory letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in my bio, below). But first, a quick look at why insiders, like me, don’t seem to be too worried about the twin fears.\nOmicron\nThe concern here is that this new variant is far more contagious and deadly than the delta variant.\nThe first fear may be true. Case counts are rising sharply in South Africa, which suggests it is more contagious. As for lethality, though, omicron seems to be mild so far. There is still a lot to learn, but this is the message we consistently get from doctors and health authorities with lots of experience with COVID.\n“What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicenter of this where I’m practicing, is extremely mild for us,” says Angelique Coetzee, a doctor in South Africa who has three decades of experience. “These are mild cases. We haven’t admitted anyone. I’ve spoken to other colleagues of mine and they give the same picture.”\nHospitalizations in South Africa “are ticking up but not incredibly fast,” agrees William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard and co-director of its Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. U.S. health authorities confirm omicron may not be especially lethal. Both the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Minnesota Department of Health describe the first cases found in the U.S. so far as mild.\nif the omicron variant is mild, this wouldn’t be a surprise. Respiratory viruses naturally evolve to be more contagious and less lethal, notes Professor Karl Lauterbach, an epidemiologist in Germany. This makes sense from the point of view of a virus. A virus has a better chance if it spreads quickly and does not kill its host.\nOn vaccine “escape” or evasion, former Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb thinks the current vaccines will work against omicron by suppressing symptoms enough to lower hospitalizations. “There’s a high degree of confidence that efficacy is going to be preserved,” he says. “Will it be the same 95%? Perhaps not, but you will still have a meaningful amount of efficacy.”\nHe notes the mRNA vaccine companies can tweak their vaccines to make them even better, in a matter of months. Vaccine companies like Pfizer confirm boosters will work, and that they’ll be able to customize them for the omicron variant. “In our view and reiterated by Pfizer, the current booster will likely be effective,” says Jefferies biotech analyst Michael Yee. “A new version for 2022 can be even better.”\nInflation\nThere’s are lots of reasons to think inflation fears are overblown. The worry here is that the Federal Reserve is “behind the curve” so it will have to hike rates aggressively, which might kill growth and the bull market. This isn’t going to happen. One sign is that commodity prices and shipping costs have been falling sharply. These are often the leading edge of inflation.\nNext, take a moment to drill down on the current inflation spike. To do so, consider the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s breakdown of the parts of the Core CPI Index into “flexible” categories (quick to change) and “sticky” categories (slow to change). Right now, the flexible components account for most of the headline inflation.\nThese prices are up around 15% in the past year, compared to 3% gains for the “sticky” prices, points out economist Jim Paulsen, the market strategist at Leuthold Group. “While troublesome, the Core CPI Index’s overall rise is due almost entirely to prices that traditionally move around a lot, both up and down,” he says. This suggests the headline inflation rate can reverse and move down quickly from here.\nThat’s what a lot of analysts and bond market investors think. Analysts expect inflation of less than 2% over the next two to 10 years, according to projections tracked by the Atlanta Fed. Meanwhile, the 10-year inflation rate projected by investors in the bond market stands at around 2.6%, notes Paulsen. Not terribly alarming.\nThese projections make sense to me, because companies say their supply chain issues will be fixed by around the middle of next year. Shortages linked to supply chain issues have been a main contributor to price spikes.\nFinally, mobility tracking data from Alphabet,Apple,OpenTable and the Transportation Security Administration show that people in the U.S. have significantly curtailed how much they go out in public. On Nov. 30 and Dec. 1, TSA check-ins were 79%-81% of 2019 levels, compared to 85% to 90% in the prior 10 days, by my calculations. If this reduced mobility slows the economy a little, it will ease fears about inflation and the need for the Fed taking away the punch bowl too quickly.\nInsiders\nIn a mini-replay of March-October of 2020 when the COVID crisis first raged, insiders have once again stepped up to buy market weakness caused by fresh COVID fears. True, insiders are not epidemiologists. But they are not dummies either. They have good networks of contacts and they see the tone of their businesses every day. Their buying is focused on all the right areas like cyclicals, retail, energy and industrials, not defensive names.\nCompanies where insiders have been buying meaningful amounts over the past several days include outdoor and retail names Six Flags Entertainment,American Eagle Outfitters,Nordstrom and American Woodmark; travel names like Delta Air Lines and Playa Hotels & Resorts ; energy names like Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources; and materials names like Cleveland-Cliffs and Orion Engineered Carbons.\nHo, ho, ho!\nTheir buying confirms work by seasonality and trading expert Larry Williams who tells me his work concludes we can expect a “Santa Claus” rally once again, later this month. We’ll see, but since the two main fears are false fears that will till take a little time to more fully recede, this makes sense to me.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLF":0.9,"AMWD":0.9,"JWN":0.9,"SIX":0.9,"EOG":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"PLYA":0.9,"XOM":0.9,"OEC":0.9,"AEO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1965,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["HOPE"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/608746286"}
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