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2021-12-01
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Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":609523654,"tweetId":"609523654","gmtCreate":1638311590127,"gmtModify":1638311681288,"author":{"id":3577937302028167,"idStr":"3577937302028167","authorId":3577937302028167,"authorIdStr":"3577937302028167","name":"newwen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c72fb9a7e595dfd0c2e4e983607d1d0","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1363,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609523654","repostId":1158390889,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158390889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638285505,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158390889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-30 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158390889","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.Today, the Apple Maven talks about what A","content":"<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently reported that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is one of the best in the world at managing inventory and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook has already warned of an impact of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: What to Expect During the Holiday Season<blockquote>苹果股票：假期期间的预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-30 23:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>2021年假日购物季正式开启。以下是苹果投资者在未来几周内对库比蒂诺公司及其股票的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Black Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五和网络星期一已经过去了。至此，美国和世界部分地区的2021年假期正式开始。像苹果这样的消费品和服务公司正面临一年中销售最繁忙的几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84c9d46c1a03b350ba81dcd1e6e39c83\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone、苹果手表和Air Pods盒子。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了随着购物季的到来，苹果股票投资者应该思考什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple to benefit from strong consumer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果将受益于强劲的消费者</b></blockquote></p><p> At the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.</p><p><blockquote>在可能的最高水平上，苹果可能会受益于2021年的涨潮。下图清楚地表明，美国的消费者支出不仅从2020年的快速衰退中恢复过来，而且一直在“弥补失去的时间”。与疫情之前相比，支出趋势甚至略有加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfb88f466fa1cfe1c35bddbd1cf1bb7\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: Consumer spending in US.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：美国消费者支出。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Regarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently reported that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，就假期而言，消费品和服务销售可能看起来有点不寻常。Adobe最近报告称，黑色星期五在线活动首次同比下降。在线销售额达到89亿美元，低于2020年的90亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Without context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有背景，这些数字可能看起来令人担忧。但同样，这场新冠肺炎危机没有任何典型之处。黑色星期五可能受到以下影响：(1)消费者比平时更早购买，以避免11月底和12月的延迟交货，以及(2)供应链限制导致短缺和错失销售机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple could do better than average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果可以做得比平均水平更好</b></blockquote></p><p> The demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，上述需求情景至少是适度乐观的，即使供应方面并非没有挑战。即便如此，我认为苹果在未来几周的表现很有可能好于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, the Cupertino company is one of the best in the world at managing inventory and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook has already warned of an impact of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.</p><p><blockquote>首先，库比蒂诺公司是世界上管理库存和供应链最好的公司之一。然而，首席执行官蒂姆·库克已经警告称，生产和物流瓶颈将对假日季度的收入造成60亿美元的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>其次，对苹果产品和服务的需求似乎没有动摇。例如，我曾多次讨论过iPhone可能会在2021财年和2022财年迎来有史以来销量最好的年份。即使是第一款支持5G的机型推出的强硬竞争也可能不足以抢走广受好评的iPhone 13的风头。</blockquote></p><p> <b>But how about AAPL stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但苹果公司的股票怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> Keep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，财务业绩，尤其是短期业绩，并不总是与股价变动相关。事实上，假日损益结果可能对苹果股票产生的任何影响可能要到2022年1月下旬该公司报告第一财季收益时才会发生。</blockquote></p><p> For the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.</p><p><blockquote>就近期而言，苹果投资者应记住，该股的季节性模式在每年的这个时候历来都是不利的。下图显示，AAPL从11月到1月的表现明显不佳。这次会有什么不同吗？只有时间能证明一切。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c72a2f9720f472ceba32b24f4a2a78\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：自iPhone推出以来AAPL的平均月回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-holiday-season-starts-what-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158390889","content_text":"The 2021 holiday shopping season has officially started. Here is what Apple investors should expect of the Cupertino company and its stock in the next few weeks.\nBlack Friday and Cyber Monday are behind us. With that, the 2021 holiday season in the US and parts of the world has officially begun. Consumer product and service companies like Apple are staring into the busiest weeks of sales in the year.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone, Apple Watch and Air Pods boxes.\nToday, the Apple Maven talks about what Apple stock investors should think about as the shopping season kicks into gear.\nApple to benefit from strong consumer\nAt the highest level possible, Apple is likely to benefit from a rising tide that lifts all boats in 2021. The chart below clearly shows that consumer spending in the US has not only recovered from the 2020 flash recession, but it has been “making up for lost time”. Spending trends have even accelerated slightly compared to the pre-pandemic period.\nFigure 2: Consumer spending in US.\nRegarding the holiday period, however, consumer product and service sales may look a bit atypical. Adobe has recently reported that Black Friday activity online dropped year-over-year for the first time ever. Online sales reached $8.9 billion, lower than 2020’s $9 billion.\nWithout context, these numbers may look concerning. But once again, there is nothing typical about this COVID-19 crisis. Black Friday likely suffered from (1) consumers buying earlier than usual, to avoid delayed deliveries in late November and December, and (2) supply chain constraints causing shortages and missed sales opportunities.\nApple could do better than average\nThe demand scenario described above is at least modestly optimistic, in my view, even if not without challenges on the supply side. Even so, I think that Apple has a good chance of performing better than average in the next few weeks.\nFor starters, the Cupertino company is one of the best in the world at managing inventory and supply chain. Consider, however, that CEO Tim Cook has already warned of an impact of $6 billion to revenues in the holiday quarter caused by the production and logistics bottlenecks.\nSecond, the demand for Apple’s products and services seems unshaken.I have discussed a few times that the iPhone, for example, is likely to have its best years of sales ever in fiscal 2021 and 2022. Not even the tough comps introduced by the first 5G-capable model will likely be enough to steal the thunder of a well-received iPhone 13.\nBut how about AAPL stock?\nKeep in mind that financial performance, especially in the short term, does not always correlate with share price movements. In fact, any impact that the holiday P&L results may have on Apple stock would likely not happen until late January 2022, when the company reports fiscal Q1 earnings.\nFor the immediate term, Apple investors should keep in mind that the stock’s seasonal patterns have been historically unfavorable around this time of the year. The chart below shows that AAPL has clearly underperformed in November through January. Will this time be any different? Only time will tell.\nFigure 3: AAPL average monthly return since iPhone launch.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1049,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/609523654"}
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