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2022-03-28

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March Jobs Report, PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week<blockquote>3 月份就业报告、PCE 通胀、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>

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The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. ","content":"<html><head></head><body>The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>三月份的就业报告成为本周的焦点。劳工部每月发布的美国就业情况快照将受到市场参与者的密切关注，并将具有特殊的分量，因为美联储官员似乎在央行的加息计划中显示出更加鹰派的信号。与此同时，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE也将于周三公布，这将为下一次加息的激进程度提供进一步线索。</body></html></blockquote>Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&amp;P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.<blockquote>尽管出现了一系列跷跷板行动，但自美联储于 3 月 16 日加息 25 个基点，这是自 2018 年以来的首次加息以来，市场大多表现良好。道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数周五均连续第二周上涨，收于一个月高点。</blockquote>Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.<blockquote>尽管如此，围绕央行的前进道路仍有疑问，投资者正在密切关注正在进行的短期利率上调是否会削弱市场的涨幅。</blockquote>The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.<blockquote>在美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近发表讲话称 “持续加息 ”以降低通胀数据后，交易员们正准备应对美联储官员可能会比预期更积极地提高借贷成本的可能性。如果周五的就业数据显示劳动力市场比以往任何时候都更加紧张，政策制定者可能更倾向于将加薪 50 个基点。</blockquote>“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”<blockquote>“FWDBONDS 首席经济学家克里斯托弗-鲁普基（Christopher Rupkey）在最近的一份报告中说：”《就业报告》可能是从大流行病中复苏的最大报告。“美联储官员已经迫切希望在即将召开的会议上加息 50 个基点，而自 20 世纪 60 年代以来最紧张的劳动力市场就像火上浇油，任何一位称职的政策官员都渴望现在将利率提高到 2% 的中性水平。”</blockquote>All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.<blockquote>种种迹象表明，就业报告令人瞠目结舌。上周，美国首次申请失业救济人数为 187,000 人，为 1969 年 9 月以来的最低水平。此外，最新的就业报告超出了经济学家的估计，2月份新增或创造了惊人的687,000个就业岗位。根据彭博经济学家的估计，3月份的报告预计将显示另一个强劲的数据，就业人数可能会增加49万人。</blockquote>This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场的紧张局势有力地影响了美联储控制货币政策的决定，经济势头向官员们表明，美国经济可以经受住不太宽松的金融环境。</blockquote>“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”<blockquote>“Bankrate 高级行业分析师特德-罗斯曼（Ted Rossman）在一份报告中说：”美联储的双重任务是促进就业和稳定物价。“强劲的劳动力市场正促使美联储将重点放在应对高通胀率上。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近暗示将采取更积极的加息步伐，而这份报告符合这一说法，因为目前通胀比失业问题更令人担忧。”</blockquote>While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.<blockquote>虽然劳动力市场的改善对美国家庭有利，但广泛的职位空缺为工人创造了巨大的杠杆空间，推高了工资涨幅，并进一步加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote>To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.<blockquote>除此之外，美国银行指出，在劳动力市场复苏的情况下，任何给定失业率的职位空缺水平都高于以往历史。因此，该行表示，短期通胀中性失业率 (NAIRU) 可能高于长期预期，这意味着短期内工资和物价压力将更加持续。</blockquote>The Labor Department&#39;s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January&#39;s results.<blockquote>根据彭博的共识，劳工部 2 月份的 JOLTs（职位空缺和劳动力流动摘要）将于周二公布，分析师预计职位空缺为 1100 万个，与 1 月份的结果相似。</blockquote>“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”<blockquote>“美国银行经济学家在最近的一份报告中说：”大流行病导致劳动力市场的贝弗里奇曲线（失业率与职位空缺率之间的关系）出现了非同寻常的向外转移，这表明工人很难与工作相匹配。“这种不匹配可能反映出商品支出激增，从而导致经济最热门地区工人短缺”。</blockquote><h2>Fed&#39;s measure of inflation</h2>Also on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.<blockquote><h2>美联储的通胀衡量标准</h2>同样在通胀方面，经济分析局定于本周四发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数的最新数据。该指标是衡量全国价格上涨速度的另一个指标。根据彭博数据，普遍经济学家预计2月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，这将是连续第15个月上涨，并使该指数同比上涨6.4%。</blockquote>The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.<blockquote>美联储用来实施货币政策的核心PCE指数预计在周三公布时也将出现增长。共识经济学家预计 2 月份核心 PCE 将增长 5.5%，而 1 月份的涨幅为 5.2%。</blockquote>The Fed&#39;s already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday&#39;s close.<blockquote>美联储在不阻碍经济增长的情况下缓解通胀的艰巨任务因东欧的地缘政治动荡而变得更加复杂。最近几周，乌克兰战争和因俄罗斯入侵该国而对其实施的惩罚性制裁增加了人们对冲突对全球经济形势的影响以及对美国的潜在溢出后果的不确定性。截至周五收盘，WTI 原油期货结束了两周的连跌，本周上涨 8.8%，至每桶 113.90 美元。</blockquote>OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.<blockquote>OPEC+（石油输出国组织）定于3月31日与俄罗斯及其其他九个盟友举行虚拟会议，讨论5月份的产量水平。尽管原油价格处于 14 年来的高位，但该政府间组织预计仍将维持当前的生产计划。</blockquote>“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,&#34; Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”<blockquote>“嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）对雅虎财经直播说：”在能源价格和通胀上涨的情况下，美联储似乎是唯一一家仍专注于加大鹰派力度的央行。“这值得注意”。</blockquote><h2>Consumer confidence</h2>As inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what&#39;s ahead. The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.<blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2>随着通胀担忧的加剧，消费者对未来越来越谨慎。世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将及时反映他们在最近一次价格飙升后的想法。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，继上个月读数为 110.5 之后，3 月份该指数将降至 107.0。</blockquote>Last week&#39;s further decline in the University of Michigan&#39;s final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers&#39; changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.<blockquote>上周密歇根大学 3 月份最终消费者信心指数进一步下降，从上个月的初步读数 59.7 和 62.8 降至 59.4，这表明消费者对经济未来的态度正在发生变化。密歇根大学表示，调查显示，除过去 50 年来最严重的两次衰退（1979 年 3 月至 1981 年 4 月和 2008 年 5 月至 10 月）之外，报告因通货膨胀上升而生活水平下降的消费者比以往任何时候都多。</blockquote>&#34;Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,&#34; Rupkey said in recent commentary. &#34;Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.&#34;<blockquote>鲁普基在最近的评论中表示：“通常消费者会担心就业机会及其缺乏，但这一次，消费者与美联储官员一致认为，经济面临的最大危险是通货膨胀。”“消费者继续消费，但随着商店购买商品的成本飙升，未来的消费非常值得怀疑。”</blockquote>&#34;We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,&#34; he wrote. &#34;Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“除了经济衰退最黑暗的日子之外，我们很少看到消费者如此悲观，但民意调查显示，公众比多年来更加担心自己的经济未来。”“每个人都让开，因为如果消费者停止，那么经济就会下降，如果经济能够避免在衰退的边缘发生沉船，那将是一个奇迹。”</blockquote>Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a>, and others.<blockquote>财报季已经结束——尽管下一个季度（代表 2022 年前三个月）即将开始。周五有几份报告正在排队等候，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a>等。</blockquote>Economic calendar<blockquote>经济日历</blockquote>Monday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)<blockquote>星期一：2 月份预付货物贸易余额（预计为 1,063 亿美元，上月为 1,076 亿美元）；批发库存，环比，2 月初步（预期 1.2%，上月 0.8%，上修至 1.0%）；2 月份零售库存环比（预期 1.4%，上月 4.9%）；达拉斯联储 3 月份制造业活动（预期 11 次，上个月 14 次）</blockquote>Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)<blockquote>星期二：FHFA 房价指数，1 月份环比（预期 1.3%，上月 1.2%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，1 月份环比（预期 1.50%，上月 1.46%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 城市综合指数，1 月份同比（预期 18.55%，上月 18.56%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美国国家房价指数，1 月份同比（上月为 18.84%）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心，3 月份（预期 107.0，先前读数 110.5）；世界大型企业联合会现状，3月（先前阅读期间为145.1）；世界大型企业联合会预期，3 月份（先前阅读期间为 87.5）；JOLTS 2 月份职位空缺（预计 1100 万个，上个月 1126 万个）</blockquote>Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);<blockquote>星期三：MBA 抵押贷款申请，截至 3 月 25 日当周（前一周-8.1%）；3 月份 ADP 就业变化（预计 450,000 人，上个月 475,000 人）；GDP年化，环比，第三季度（预期7.0%，前值7.0%）；个人消费，环比，第三季度（预期 3.1%，前值 3.1%）；GDP价格指数，环比，第三季度（预期7.1%，前值7.1%）；核心 PCE，环比，第四季度第三季度（预期 5.0%，前值 5.0%）；</blockquote>Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)<blockquote>星期四：挑战者 3 月份同比裁员（上个月下降 55.9%）；2月份个人收入环比（预期0.5%，上月0.0%）；2 月份个人支出环比（预期 0.5%，上月 2.1%）；2月份实际个人支出环比（预期-0.2%，上月为1.5%）；2 月份 PCE 平减指数环比（预期 0.6%，上月 0.6%）；2 月份 PCE 平减指数同比（预期 6.4%，上月 6.1%）；PCE核心平减指数，环比，2月份（预期0.4%，上月0.5%）；2 月份 PCE 核心平减指数同比（预期 5.5%，上月 5.2%）；截至 3 月 26 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（预计为 200,000 人，前一周为 187,000 人）；持续申请，截至 3 月 19 日当周（预计 135 万人，前一周 135 万人）；MNI 芝加哥 PMI，3 月份（预期 57.0，上月 56.3）</blockquote>Friday: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)<blockquote>星期五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">二</a>-月度薪资净修正，3月份（92,000之前）；3月份非农就业人数变化（预计49万人，上月67.8万人）；3月份私人就业人数变化（预计408,000人，上月444,000人）；1 月份制造业就业人数变化（预计 30,000 人，上月 36,000 人）；3月份失业率（预期为3.7%，上月为3.8%）；3 月份平均小时收入环比（预期 0.4%，上月 0.0%）；3 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.5%，上月 5.1%）；3 月份所有员工的平均周工作时间（预期为 34.7，上个月为 34.7）；3 月份劳动力参与率（预期为 62.4%，上月为 62.3%）；3月份就业不足率（上月7.2%）；标准普尔全球制造业采购经理人指数，3月份最终值（预期为58.5，上月为58.5）；2 月份建筑支出环比（预期 1.0%，上月 1.3%）；ISM 制造业，3 月（预期 59.0，上月 58.6）；3 月份支付的 ISM 价格（预期 80，上月 75.6）；ISM 3 月份新订单（上月为 61.7）；ISM 就业，3 月份（上月为 52.9）；3 月份 WARDS 汽车总销量（预计 1,390 万辆，上月 1,407 万辆）</blockquote><h3>Earnings calendar</h3>Monday<blockquote><h3>收益日历</h3>周一</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">Dave &amp; Buster’s Entertainment </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">戴夫与巴斯特娱乐公司</a></blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">麦考密克</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a></blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">下面五个</a></blockquote>After market close: No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>收盘后：没有计划发布的重要报告</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA)<blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>（WBA）</blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a></blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>没有计划发布的重要报告</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>三月份的就业报告成为本周的焦点。劳工部每月发布的美国就业情况快照将受到市场参与者的密切关注，并将具有特殊的分量，因为美联储官员似乎在央行的加息计划中显示出更加鹰派的信号。与此同时，美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE也将于周三公布，这将为下一次加息的激进程度提供进一步线索。</body></html></blockquote>Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&amp;P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.<blockquote>尽管出现了一系列跷跷板行动，但自美联储于 3 月 16 日加息 25 个基点，这是自 2018 年以来的首次加息以来，市场大多表现良好。道琼斯工业平均指数、纳斯达克综合指数和标普500指数周五均连续第二周上涨，收于一个月高点。</blockquote>Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.<blockquote>尽管如此，围绕央行的前进道路仍有疑问，投资者正在密切关注正在进行的短期利率上调是否会削弱市场的涨幅。</blockquote>The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.<blockquote>在美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近发表讲话称 “持续加息 ”以降低通胀数据后，交易员们正准备应对美联储官员可能会比预期更积极地提高借贷成本的可能性。如果周五的就业数据显示劳动力市场比以往任何时候都更加紧张，政策制定者可能更倾向于将加薪 50 个基点。</blockquote>“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”<blockquote>“FWDBONDS 首席经济学家克里斯托弗-鲁普基（Christopher Rupkey）在最近的一份报告中说：”《就业报告》可能是从大流行病中复苏的最大报告。“美联储官员已经迫切希望在即将召开的会议上加息 50 个基点，而自 20 世纪 60 年代以来最紧张的劳动力市场就像火上浇油，任何一位称职的政策官员都渴望现在将利率提高到 2% 的中性水平。”</blockquote>All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.<blockquote>种种迹象表明，就业报告令人瞠目结舌。上周，美国首次申请失业救济人数为 187,000 人，为 1969 年 9 月以来的最低水平。此外，最新的就业报告超出了经济学家的估计，2月份新增或创造了惊人的687,000个就业岗位。根据彭博经济学家的估计，3月份的报告预计将显示另一个强劲的数据，就业人数可能会增加49万人。</blockquote>This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.<blockquote>劳动力市场的紧张局势有力地影响了美联储控制货币政策的决定，经济势头向官员们表明，美国经济可以经受住不太宽松的金融环境。</blockquote>“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”<blockquote>“Bankrate 高级行业分析师特德-罗斯曼（Ted Rossman）在一份报告中说：”美联储的双重任务是促进就业和稳定物价。“强劲的劳动力市场正促使美联储将重点放在应对高通胀率上。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）最近暗示将采取更积极的加息步伐，而这份报告符合这一说法，因为目前通胀比失业问题更令人担忧。”</blockquote>While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.<blockquote>虽然劳动力市场的改善对美国家庭有利，但广泛的职位空缺为工人创造了巨大的杠杆空间，推高了工资涨幅，并进一步加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote>To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.<blockquote>除此之外，美国银行指出，在劳动力市场复苏的情况下，任何给定失业率的职位空缺水平都高于以往历史。因此，该行表示，短期通胀中性失业率 (NAIRU) 可能高于长期预期，这意味着短期内工资和物价压力将更加持续。</blockquote>The Labor Department&#39;s JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January&#39;s results.<blockquote>根据彭博的共识，劳工部 2 月份的 JOLTs（职位空缺和劳动力流动摘要）将于周二公布，分析师预计职位空缺为 1100 万个，与 1 月份的结果相似。</blockquote>“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”<blockquote>“美国银行经济学家在最近的一份报告中说：”大流行病导致劳动力市场的贝弗里奇曲线（失业率与职位空缺率之间的关系）出现了非同寻常的向外转移，这表明工人很难与工作相匹配。“这种不匹配可能反映出商品支出激增，从而导致经济最热门地区工人短缺”。</blockquote><h2>Fed&#39;s measure of inflation</h2>Also on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.<blockquote><h2>美联储的通胀衡量标准</h2>同样在通胀方面，经济分析局定于本周四发布月度个人消费支出（PCE）平减指数的最新数据。该指标是衡量全国价格上涨速度的另一个指标。根据彭博数据，普遍经济学家预计2月份PCE将再上涨0.6%，这将是连续第15个月上涨，并使该指数同比上涨6.4%。</blockquote>The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.<blockquote>美联储用来实施货币政策的核心PCE指数预计在周三公布时也将出现增长。共识经济学家预计 2 月份核心 PCE 将增长 5.5%，而 1 月份的涨幅为 5.2%。</blockquote>The Fed&#39;s already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday&#39;s close.<blockquote>美联储在不阻碍经济增长的情况下缓解通胀的艰巨任务因东欧的地缘政治动荡而变得更加复杂。最近几周，乌克兰战争和因俄罗斯入侵该国而对其实施的惩罚性制裁增加了人们对冲突对全球经济形势的影响以及对美国的潜在溢出后果的不确定性。截至周五收盘，WTI 原油期货结束了两周的连跌，本周上涨 8.8%，至每桶 113.90 美元。</blockquote>OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.<blockquote>OPEC+（石油输出国组织）定于3月31日与俄罗斯及其其他九个盟友举行虚拟会议，讨论5月份的产量水平。尽管原油价格处于 14 年来的高位，但该政府间组织预计仍将维持当前的生产计划。</blockquote>“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,&#34; Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”<blockquote>“嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）对雅虎财经直播说：”在能源价格和通胀上涨的情况下，美联储似乎是唯一一家仍专注于加大鹰派力度的央行。“这值得注意”。</blockquote><h2>Consumer confidence</h2>As inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what&#39;s ahead. The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.<blockquote><h2>消费者信心</h2>随着通胀担忧的加剧，消费者对未来越来越谨慎。世界大型企业联合会将于周二发布的消费者信心指数将及时反映他们在最近一次价格飙升后的想法。彭博社调查的经济学家预计，继上个月读数为 110.5 之后，3 月份该指数将降至 107.0。</blockquote>Last week&#39;s further decline in the University of Michigan&#39;s final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers&#39; changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.<blockquote>上周密歇根大学 3 月份最终消费者信心指数进一步下降，从上个月的初步读数 59.7 和 62.8 降至 59.4，这表明消费者对经济未来的态度正在发生变化。密歇根大学表示，调查显示，除过去 50 年来最严重的两次衰退（1979 年 3 月至 1981 年 4 月和 2008 年 5 月至 10 月）之外，报告因通货膨胀上升而生活水平下降的消费者比以往任何时候都多。</blockquote>&#34;Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,&#34; Rupkey said in recent commentary. &#34;Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.&#34;<blockquote>鲁普基在最近的评论中表示：“通常消费者会担心就业机会及其缺乏，但这一次，消费者与美联储官员一致认为，经济面临的最大危险是通货膨胀。”“消费者继续消费，但随着商店购买商品的成本飙升，未来的消费非常值得怀疑。”</blockquote>&#34;We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,&#34; he wrote. &#34;Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“除了经济衰退最黑暗的日子之外，我们很少看到消费者如此悲观，但民意调查显示，公众比多年来更加担心自己的经济未来。”“每个人都让开，因为如果消费者停止，那么经济就会下降，如果经济能够避免在衰退的边缘发生沉船，那将是一个奇迹。”</blockquote>Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a>, and others.<blockquote>财报季已经结束——尽管下一个季度（代表 2022 年前三个月）即将开始。周五有几份报告正在排队等候，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a>等。</blockquote>Economic calendar<blockquote>经济日历</blockquote>Monday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)<blockquote>星期一：2 月份预付货物贸易余额（预计为 1,063 亿美元，上月为 1,076 亿美元）；批发库存，环比，2 月初步（预期 1.2%，上月 0.8%，上修至 1.0%）；2 月份零售库存环比（预期 1.4%，上月 4.9%）；达拉斯联储 3 月份制造业活动（预期 11 次，上个月 14 次）</blockquote>Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)<blockquote>星期二：FHFA 房价指数，1 月份环比（预期 1.3%，上月 1.2%）；标准普尔<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">核心逻辑</a>Case-Shiller 20 个城市综合指数，1 月份环比（预期 1.50%，上月 1.46%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 城市综合指数，1 月份同比（预期 18.55%，上月 18.56%）；S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 美国国家房价指数，1 月份同比（上月为 18.84%）；世界大型企业联合会消费者信心，3 月份（预期 107.0，先前读数 110.5）；世界大型企业联合会现状，3月（先前阅读期间为145.1）；世界大型企业联合会预期，3 月份（先前阅读期间为 87.5）；JOLTS 2 月份职位空缺（预计 1100 万个，上个月 1126 万个）</blockquote>Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);<blockquote>星期三：MBA 抵押贷款申请，截至 3 月 25 日当周（前一周-8.1%）；3 月份 ADP 就业变化（预计 450,000 人，上个月 475,000 人）；GDP年化，环比，第三季度（预期7.0%，前值7.0%）；个人消费，环比，第三季度（预期 3.1%，前值 3.1%）；GDP价格指数，环比，第三季度（预期7.1%，前值7.1%）；核心 PCE，环比，第四季度第三季度（预期 5.0%，前值 5.0%）；</blockquote>Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)<blockquote>星期四：挑战者 3 月份同比裁员（上个月下降 55.9%）；2月份个人收入环比（预期0.5%，上月0.0%）；2 月份个人支出环比（预期 0.5%，上月 2.1%）；2月份实际个人支出环比（预期-0.2%，上月为1.5%）；2 月份 PCE 平减指数环比（预期 0.6%，上月 0.6%）；2 月份 PCE 平减指数同比（预期 6.4%，上月 6.1%）；PCE核心平减指数，环比，2月份（预期0.4%，上月0.5%）；2 月份 PCE 核心平减指数同比（预期 5.5%，上月 5.2%）；截至 3 月 26 日当周首次申请失业救济人数（预计为 200,000 人，前一周为 187,000 人）；持续申请，截至 3 月 19 日当周（预计 135 万人，前一周 135 万人）；MNI 芝加哥 PMI，3 月份（预期 57.0，上月 56.3）</blockquote>Friday: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a>-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&amp;P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)<blockquote>星期五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">二</a>-月度薪资净修正，3月份（92,000之前）；3月份非农就业人数变化（预计49万人，上月67.8万人）；3月份私人就业人数变化（预计408,000人，上月444,000人）；1 月份制造业就业人数变化（预计 30,000 人，上月 36,000 人）；3月份失业率（预期为3.7%，上月为3.8%）；3 月份平均小时收入环比（预期 0.4%，上月 0.0%）；3 月份平均小时收入同比（预期 5.5%，上月 5.1%）；3 月份所有员工的平均周工作时间（预期为 34.7，上个月为 34.7）；3 月份劳动力参与率（预期为 62.4%，上月为 62.3%）；3月份就业不足率（上月7.2%）；标准普尔全球制造业采购经理人指数，3月份最终值（预期为58.5，上月为58.5）；2 月份建筑支出环比（预期 1.0%，上月 1.3%）；ISM 制造业，3 月（预期 59.0，上月 58.6）；3 月份支付的 ISM 价格（预期 80，上月 75.6）；ISM 3 月份新订单（上月为 61.7）；ISM 就业，3 月份（上月为 52.9）；3 月份 WARDS 汽车总销量（预计 1,390 万辆，上月 1,407 万辆）</blockquote><h3>Earnings calendar</h3>Monday<blockquote><h3>收益日历</h3>周一</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TPG\">TPG</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">Jefferies Financial </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">Dave &amp; Buster’s Entertainment </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JEF\">杰富瑞金融</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLAY\">戴夫与巴斯特娱乐公司</a></blockquote>Tuesday<blockquote>周二</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">McCormick </a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MKC\">麦考密克</a></blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">Chewy </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">Micron Technology </a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">Lululemon </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHWY\">耐嚼</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RH\">RH</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LULU\">露露柠檬</a></blockquote>Wednesday<blockquote>星期三</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">Five Below</a><blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FIVE\">下面五个</a></blockquote>After market close: No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>收盘后：没有计划发布的重要报告</blockquote>Thursday<blockquote>星期四</blockquote>Before market open: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA)<blockquote>开市前：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林博姿联盟</a>（WBA）</blockquote>After market close: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">Blackberry </a><blockquote>收盘后：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">黑莓</a></blockquote>Friday<blockquote>星期五</blockquote>No notable reports scheduled for release<blockquote>没有计划发布的重要报告</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html\">Yahoo Finance</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JEF":"杰富瑞","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BK4209":"餐馆","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BB":"黑莓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","RH":"RH","BK4202":"服装、服饰与奢侈品","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4128":"药品零售","SPY":"标普500ETF","PLAY":"Dave & Buster","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","LULU":"lululemon athletica","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","FIVE":"Five Below","BK4527":"明星科技股","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc.","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4200":"专卖店","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","TPG":"TPG, Inc.","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","MU":"美光科技","BK4575":"芯片概念","MKC":"味好美","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4212":"包装食品与肉类","BK4178":"家庭装饰零售","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-jobs-report-pce-inflation-fed-hike-watch-what-to-know-this-week-160533408.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2222885292","content_text":"The March jobs report takes center stage this week. The Labor Department’s monthly snapshot of U.S. employment will be closely watched by market participants and will carry special weight as Federal Reserve officials appear to signal more hawkishness in the central bank’s rate-hiking plans. Meanwhile, Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is also due out Wednesday and will offer further clues on how aggressive the next interest rate bump could be.Despite a streak of seesaw action, markets have mostly fared well since the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on March 16 in the first hike since 2018. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 each registered their second straight week of gains on Friday to close at one-month highs.Still, questions remain around the central bank’s path forward and investors are watching closely to see whether the ramp up in short-term rates that is underway will blunt the market’s gains.The latest jobs report due out Friday comes as traders are braced for the likelihood that Fed officials may lean into higher borrowing costs more aggressively than anticipated after recent remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating “ongoing rate increases will be appropriate” to lower inflation readings. If Friday’s employment data shows a tighter-than-ever labor market, policymakers could be even more inclined to move ahead with a 50-basis point hike.“The payroll jobs report could be the biggest one yet in this recovery from the pandemic,” FWDBONDS chief economist Christopher Rupkey said in a recent note. “Federal Reserve officials are already chomping at the bit for bigger 50 bps rate hikes at upcoming meetings, and the tightest labor market since the 1960s is like pouring gasoline on the fire where any policy official worth his or her salt is burning with desire to get interest rates up to 2% neutral levels now.”All things suggest a jaw-dropping jobs report. Last week, U.S. jobless claims notched the lowest level since September 1969 at 187,000 filings. Moreover, the most recent employment report blew past what economists had estimated, posting a stunning 687,000 jobs added or created during the month of February. The March report is expected to show another robust reading with payrolls likely to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg economist estimates.This labor market tightness has strongly informed the Fed’s decision to rein in monetary policy, with economic momentum suggesting to officials that the U.S. economy could weather less accommodative financial conditions.“The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to promote employment and stable prices,” Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said in a note. “The strong labor market is leading the Fed to focus squarely on combating the high inflation rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at a more aggressive pace of rate hikes, and this report fits that narrative since inflation is a much bigger concern than unemployment right now.”While an improving labor market is good for U.S. households, widespread job openings have made room for significant leverage for workers, driving wage gains higher and further elevating inflationary pressures.To add to that, Bank of America pointed out that amid the labor market recovery is a higher level of job openings for any given unemployment rate than compared to prior history. As a result, the short-run inflation neutral unemployment rate (NAIRU) may be higher than longer-run estimates, implying more sustained wage and price pressures in the near-term, according to the bank.The Labor Department's JOLTs (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary) for February will be released Tuesday with analysts, according to Bloomberg consensus, expecting vacancies of 11 million, similar to January's results.“The pandemic labor market has seen an extraordinary outward shift in the Beveridge curve (the relationship between unemployment and the job vacancy rate), suggesting difficulty in matching workers to jobs,” BofA economists said in a recent note. “This mismatch may reflect surging goods spending and hence a shortage of workers in the hottest part of the economy.”Fed's measure of inflationAlso on the inflation front, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release a fresh read on its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator this Thursday. The measure is another gauge of how quickly prices are increasing across the country. Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in February, according to Bloomberg data, This would mark the 15th consecutive monthly increase and bring the index up by 6.4% on a year-over-year basis.The core PCE index, which the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy, is also expected to show an increase when the print publishes Wednesday. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.5% increase in core PCE in February, compared to January’s 5.2% rise.The Fed's already arduous task of mitigating inflation without stunting economic growth is further complicated by geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe. War in Ukraine and penalizing sanctions against Russia for its invasion of the country have raised uncertainty in recent weeks over the conflict’s toll on the global economic picture and potential spillover consequences for the U.S. Namely, rising oil prices have elevated inflation expectations. WTI crude oil futures snapped a two-week losing streak to round out the week 8.8% higher at $113.90 per barrel as of Friday's close.OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting on March 31 with Russia and its nine other allies to discuss May production levels. The intergovernmental organization is expected to maintain current production plans, even as crude oil prices trade at a 14-year high.“The Fed seems to be the only central bank still focused on increasing its hawkishness” amid higher energy prices and inflation,\" Charles Schwab Chief Global Investment Strategist Jeffrey Kleintop told Yahoo Finance Live. “It’s noteworthy.”Consumer confidenceAs inflation worries mount, consumers are getting wary about what's ahead. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will show a timely snapshot of their thinking following the latest spike in prices. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the index to fall to 107.0 for March following a read of 110.5 last month.Last week's further decline in the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for March, which fell to 59.4 from a preliminary reading of 59.7 and 62.8 in the prior month, is an indication of consumers' changing attitude about their economic future. The survey saw more consumers report reduced living standards due to rising inflation than any other time except during the two worst recessions in the past 50 years: from March 1979 to April 1981, and from May to October 2008, the University of Michigan said.\"Usually consumers fret about job opportunities and the lack thereof, but this time, the consumer is in sync with Fed officials that the greatest danger the economy faces is inflation,\" Rupkey said in recent commentary. \"Consumers continue to spend, but future consumption is very much in doubt as the cost of store bought goods soars ever higher.\"\"We have rarely seen consumers this pessimistic outside of the darkest days of recessions, but the polling indicates the public is more scared about their economic future than they have been in years,\" he wrote. \"Everyone get out of the way because if the consumer stops, then the economy drops and it will be a miracle if the economy can avoid a shipwreck on the shores of recession.\"Earnings season has winded down — though the next quarterly read (representing the first three months of 2022) will be underway soon. A few reports are in the queue to trickle in on Friday, with names including Jefferies Financial , Chewy , Lululemon , and others.Economic calendarMonday: Advance Goods Trade Balance, February (-$106.3 billion expected, -$107.6 billion during prior month); Wholesale Inventories, month-over-month, February preliminary (1.2% expected, 0.8% during previous month, upwardly revised to 1.0%); Retail Inventories, month-over-month, February (1.4% expected, 4.9% during prior month); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, March (11 expected, 14 during prior month)Tuesday: FHFA House Pricing Index, month-over-month, January (1.3% expected, 1.2% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, month-over-month, January (1.50% expected, 1.46% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite, year-over-year, January (18.55% expected, 18.56% during prior month); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, year-over-year, January (18.84% during prior month); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, March (107.0 expected, 110.5 during prior read); Conference Board Present Situation, March (145.1 during prior read); Conference Board Expectations, March (87.5 during prior read); JOLTS job openings, February (11 million expected, 11.26 million during prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 25 (-8.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, March (450,000 expected, 475,000 during prior month); GDP Annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.0% expected, 7.0% prior); Personal Consumption, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (3.1% expected, 3.1% prior); GDP Price Index, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (7.1% expected, 7.1% prior); Core PCE, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q third (5.0% expected, 5.0% prior);Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, March (-55.9% during prior month); Personal Income, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (0.5% expected, 2.1% during prior month); Real Personal Spending, month-over-month, February (-0.2% expected, 1.5% during prior month); PCE deflator, month-over-month, February (0.6% expected, 0.6% during prior month); PCE deflator, year-over-year, February (6.4% expected, 6.1% during prior month); PCE core deflator, month-over-month, February (0.4% expected, 0.5% during prior month); PCE core deflator, year-over-year, February (5.5% expected, 5.2% during prior month); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended March 26 (200,000 expected, 187,000 during prior week); Continuing Claims, week ended March 19 (1.35 million expected, 1.35 million during prior week); MNI Chicago PMI, March (57.0 expected, 56.3 during prior month)Friday: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, March (92,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, March (490,000 expected, 678,000 during prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, March (408,000 expected, 444,000 during prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (30,000 expected, 36,000 during prior month); Unemployment Rate, March (3.7% expected, 3.8% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, March (0.4% expected, 0.0% during prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, March (5.5% expected, 5.1% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, March (34.7 expected, 34.7 during prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, March (62.4% expected, 62.3% during prior month); Underemployment Rate, March (7.2% prior month); S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, March final (58.5 expected, 58.5 during prior month); Construction Spending, month-over-month, February (1.0% expected, 1.3% during prior month); ISM Manufacturing, March (59.0 expected, 58.6 during prior month); ISM Prices Paid, March (80 expected, 75.6 prior month); ISM New Orders, March (61.7 during prior month); ISM Employment, March (52.9 during prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, March (13.90 million expected, 14.07 million prior month)Earnings calendarMondayBefore market open: TPG After market close: Jefferies Financial , Dave & Buster’s Entertainment TuesdayBefore market open: McCormick After market close: Chewy , RH , Micron Technology , Lululemon WednesdayBefore market open: Five BelowAfter market close: No notable reports scheduled for releaseThursdayBefore market open: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)After market close: Blackberry FridayNo notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.6,"FIVE":1,"LULU":1,"BB":1,"JEF":1,"WBA":1,"RH":1,"CHWY":1,"SPY":0.6,"MKC":1,"PLAY":1,"QQQ":0.9,"MU":1,"TPG":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4846,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/610036874"}