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2022-04-20
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Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：五月出售并离开的 3 个理由</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":611891779,"tweetId":"611891779","gmtCreate":1650392311292,"gmtModify":1650392384288,"author":{"id":4105078156268430,"idStr":"4105078156268430","authorId":4105078156268430,"authorIdStr":"4105078156268430","name":"13d9e85d","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oic</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Oic</p></body></html>","text":"Oic","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611891779","repostId":1134362695,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134362695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1650382064,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134362695?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-19 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：五月出售并离开的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134362695","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Summary</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.</li></ul>Executive Summary</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW五月份将迎来灾难性的季度和年终业绩。我无法想象阿里巴巴能够实现股东的高增长预期。</li><li>查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 出售了他一半的阿里巴巴股票，感觉到未来的艰难时期。</li><li>阿里巴巴的波动势必会考验阿里巴巴最大股东软银的忠诚度。</li></ul>执行摘要</blockquote></p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p><blockquote>今年，阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）面临多重收入阻力，阻碍了其增长前景。管理层的增长计划具有长期潜力，但规模太小，无法在中短期产生有意义的影响。阿里巴巴以增长为导向的股东基础将加剧市场对我们认为 5 月份令人失望的财报发布的波动反应。</blockquote></p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p><blockquote>投资论文</blockquote></p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and "value for the dollar invested." Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.</p><p><blockquote>查理·芒格出售其阿里巴巴-SW大部分职位的消息并不令人意外。我的最后两篇文章反驳了《每日新闻》（DJCO）大亨在新闻媒体上吹捧阿里巴巴股票的投资论点，并引用了竞争优势、增长和“投资美元的价值”。听了他的话，我意识到他的投资论点需要更新，更重要的是，阿里巴巴的投资者对其新现实是多么的无知。</blockquote></p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was "competitive advantage" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，阿里巴巴-SW还滥用其市场地位，强迫商家签署独家协议，禁止他们在其他平台上营销产品。查理·芒格认为的“竞争优势”在很大程度上是一种垄断，在残酷的腐败和监管打压之后已经结束。</blockquote></p><p>Munger also mentions a "higher value of a dollar invested" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p><blockquote>芒格还提到，与美国和欧洲同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW的“一美元投资价值更高”。这个假设在六个月前是正确的，但今天，有许多西方科技公司在增长到价值的轮换后以折扣价交易。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p><blockquote>最后，由于核心细分市场的成熟以及云计算和国际市场等增长驱动力的收入基础较低，增长论点也不再有帮助。第三季度（12 月季度）平庸的收入增长反映了这些动态。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p><blockquote>收入趋势</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW投资者应该为今年五月动荡的季度业绩做好准备。意识到未来的艰难时期，芒格缩减了头寸，你也应该考虑这样做。一如既往，使用杠杆时要小心。与流行观点相反，阿里巴巴-SW不一定处于底部。</blockquote></p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，在令人失望的营收业绩后，渴望增长的股东对该股并不友好，将股价推至多年低点。无论数据和价格倍数在多大程度上支持你的假设，没有什么可以阻止股价再次下跌。市场价格是由供求关系决定的，我相信阿里巴巴-SW能够实现的增长与其股东对增长的期望之间存在差异。</blockquote></p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><p><blockquote>公司面临三个主要阻力：</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google "China Lockdown," and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>宏观经济挑战</li><li>成熟的中国市场</li><li>竞争加剧</li></ol>清零政策正在挤压中国消费者，拖累消费者信心。谷歌“中国封锁”，你会发现绝望的中国公民在封锁中挣扎的令人不寒而栗的视频。在这段视频中，可以听到上海居民在阳台上尖叫，抗议封锁，他们似乎没有心情在阿里巴巴-SW上购物。相反，他们似乎更关心物价上涨、收入减少、储蓄枯竭、粮食短缺和口粮不足。经济环境不利于阿里巴巴-SW达到华尔街 33% 的 2022 年收入增长预期。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW收入预测（Seeking Alpha）</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的宏观经济挑战是它最小的麻烦。有人可能会说，商业周期是暂时的，类似于新冠政策，尽管它们对今年的收入有短期影响。如果不是因为影响阿里巴巴-SW的根本性、长期收入中断，这将是一个可靠的反向策略，特别是对于那些有胃口长期亏损的人来说。</blockquote></p><p>The China e-commerce "CEC" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务“CEC”部门占阿里巴巴收入的70%。目前，年活跃用户为 9.37 亿，而总人口为 14 亿，其中 2.6 亿年龄在 15 岁以下，市场已经饱和。上季度，CEC 增长了 7%，这是一个令人失望的数字，因为它包括收购 Sun Art 带来的无机增长，反映了其核心细分市场面临的人口挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图在中国农村寻找增长。然而，其竞争对手拼多多 (PDD) 的销售数据表明，购买力疲软，不足以创造有意义的增长，该公司专注于这一市场，年活跃用户达 9 亿。</blockquote></p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p><blockquote>云计算和国际市场也是如此，与中国农村扩张一起，代表了该公司的官方增长战略。云和国际部门分别占总收入的8%和7%。为了弥补核心业务 10% 的下降，这两个部门都需要增长 50%，才能保持收入不变，这对于渴望增长的股东群体来说仍然是一个难以接受的提议。</blockquote></p><p>I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为那些逢低买入的人有足够的时间来分析和研究公司的收入趋势和驱动因素。阿里巴巴的衰落是突然的，残酷的反垄断打压加速了这一衰落，永久性地改变了IT竞争格局，有利于规模较小的同行。虽然新投资者表现出逢低买入的勇气，但管理层却感到恐惧，这反映在商户补贴上，该补贴拖累了上季度净利润 74%，这是维持收入和用户的不可持续尝试。</blockquote></p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p><blockquote>现金流和股票回购</blockquote></p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，阿里巴巴的商业模式是健全的，产生了利润丰厚、可扩展的运营现金流，这鼓励这家电子商务巨头上个月延长了股票回购计划。阿里巴巴面临的挑战源于其无力管理投资者的预期。从历史上看，阿里巴巴-SW吸引了以增长为导向的股东基础，现在其核心业务正在成熟，管理层发现很难向股东传达其过渡状态。投资者演示仍然将阿里巴巴-SW推销为一家成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p><blockquote>问题是许多人上当了。几周前，Kevin O'Leary 正在吹捧他的新阿里巴巴-SW职位，理由是中国科技的增长潜力。芒格和奥利里是这个渴望增长的股东群体的代表。</blockquote></p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p><blockquote>软银有多忠诚</blockquote></p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.</p><p><blockquote>软银集团（OTCPK：SFTBY）拥有阿里巴巴约三分之一的股份，使这家日本金融巨头成为其最大股东。软银以其冒险精神和对新兴科技公司的支持而闻名。然而，其参与早期融资周期意味着其持仓的美元平均价格远低于普通投资者。例如，在 2021 年第四季度，软银报告称，尽管股票遭到抛售，但出售部分阿里巴巴-SW股票仍获得了 5.58 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>软银正面临新的资本问题。这家日本银行可能被迫出售阿里巴巴-SW股票，特别是如果在可能令人失望的财报发布后股价进一步下跌。有一点是肯定的，目前的情况正在考验软银对阿里巴巴-SW的忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its "competitive advantage." The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW五月份将迎来灾难性的季度和年终业绩。我无法想象阿里巴巴-SW能够实现股东的高增长预期。阿里巴巴-SW的大部分收入来自中国，中国经济正在与不断上升的新冠病例和严格的封锁规定作斗争。对于阿里巴巴-SW来说，时机再糟糕不过了，目前正在努力制定新法规，剥夺了其“竞争优势”。核心分部，即中国电子商务，已达到成熟，拥有9.73亿用户。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：五月出售并离开的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: 3 Reasons To Sell In May And Go Away<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：五月出售并离开的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-04-19 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Summary</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.</li><li>Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.</li><li>BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.</li></ul>Executive Summary</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW五月份将迎来灾难性的季度和年终业绩。我无法想象阿里巴巴能够实现股东的高增长预期。</li><li>查理·芒格 (Charlie Munger) 出售了他一半的阿里巴巴股票，感觉到未来的艰难时期。</li><li>阿里巴巴的波动势必会考验阿里巴巴最大股东软银的忠诚度。</li></ul>执行摘要</blockquote></p><p>This year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.</p><p><blockquote>今年，阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BABA）面临多重收入阻力，阻碍了其增长前景。管理层的增长计划具有长期潜力，但规模太小，无法在中短期产生有意义的影响。阿里巴巴以增长为导向的股东基础将加剧市场对我们认为 5 月份令人失望的财报发布的波动反应。</blockquote></p><p>Investment Thesis</p><p><blockquote>投资论文</blockquote></p><p>News of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and "value for the dollar invested." Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.</p><p><blockquote>查理·芒格出售其阿里巴巴-SW大部分职位的消息并不令人意外。我的最后两篇文章反驳了《每日新闻》（DJCO）大亨在新闻媒体上吹捧阿里巴巴股票的投资论点，并引用了竞争优势、增长和“投资美元的价值”。听了他的话，我意识到他的投资论点需要更新，更重要的是，阿里巴巴的投资者对其新现实是多么的无知。</blockquote></p><p>Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was "competitive advantage" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，阿里巴巴-SW还滥用其市场地位，强迫商家签署独家协议，禁止他们在其他平台上营销产品。查理·芒格认为的“竞争优势”在很大程度上是一种垄断，在残酷的腐败和监管打压之后已经结束。</blockquote></p><p>Munger also mentions a "higher value of a dollar invested" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.</p><p><blockquote>芒格还提到，与美国和欧洲同行相比，阿里巴巴-SW的“一美元投资价值更高”。这个假设在六个月前是正确的，但今天，有许多西方科技公司在增长到价值的轮换后以折扣价交易。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.</p><p><blockquote>最后，由于核心细分市场的成熟以及云计算和国际市场等增长驱动力的收入基础较低，增长论点也不再有帮助。第三季度（12 月季度）平庸的收入增长反映了这些动态。</blockquote></p><p>Revenue Trends</p><p><blockquote>收入趋势</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW投资者应该为今年五月动荡的季度业绩做好准备。意识到未来的艰难时期，芒格缩减了头寸，你也应该考虑这样做。一如既往，使用杠杆时要小心。与流行观点相反，阿里巴巴-SW不一定处于底部。</blockquote></p><p>Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，在令人失望的营收业绩后，渴望增长的股东对该股并不友好，将股价推至多年低点。无论数据和价格倍数在多大程度上支持你的假设，没有什么可以阻止股价再次下跌。市场价格是由供求关系决定的，我相信阿里巴巴-SW能够实现的增长与其股东对增长的期望之间存在差异。</blockquote></p><p>The company faces three main headwinds:</p><p><blockquote>公司面临三个主要阻力：</blockquote></p><p><ol><li>Macro-economic challenges</li><li>Maturing Chinese Market</li><li>Rising Competition</li></ol>The zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google "China Lockdown," and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>宏观经济挑战</li><li>成熟的中国市场</li><li>竞争加剧</li></ol>清零政策正在挤压中国消费者，拖累消费者信心。谷歌“中国封锁”，你会发现绝望的中国公民在封锁中挣扎的令人不寒而栗的视频。在这段视频中，可以听到上海居民在阳台上尖叫，抗议封锁，他们似乎没有心情在阿里巴巴-SW上购物。相反，他们似乎更关心物价上涨、收入减少、储蓄枯竭、粮食短缺和口粮不足。经济环境不利于阿里巴巴-SW达到华尔街 33% 的 2022 年收入增长预期。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59845a06664129959a3d7afc696f959b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW收入预测（Seeking Alpha）</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的宏观经济挑战是它最小的麻烦。有人可能会说，商业周期是暂时的，类似于新冠政策，尽管它们对今年的收入有短期影响。如果不是因为影响阿里巴巴-SW的根本性、长期收入中断，这将是一个可靠的反向策略，特别是对于那些有胃口长期亏损的人来说。</blockquote></p><p>The China e-commerce "CEC" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.</p><p><blockquote>中国电子商务“CEC”部门占阿里巴巴收入的70%。目前，年活跃用户为 9.37 亿，而总人口为 14 亿，其中 2.6 亿年龄在 15 岁以下，市场已经饱和。上季度，CEC 增长了 7%，这是一个令人失望的数字，因为它包括收购 Sun Art 带来的无机增长，反映了其核心细分市场面临的人口挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图在中国农村寻找增长。然而，其竞争对手拼多多 (PDD) 的销售数据表明，购买力疲软，不足以创造有意义的增长，该公司专注于这一市场，年活跃用户达 9 亿。</blockquote></p><p>The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p><blockquote>云计算和国际市场也是如此，与中国农村扩张一起，代表了该公司的官方增长战略。云和国际部门分别占总收入的8%和7%。为了弥补核心业务 10% 的下降，这两个部门都需要增长 50%，才能保持收入不变，这对于渴望增长的股东群体来说仍然是一个难以接受的提议。</blockquote></p><p>I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为那些逢低买入的人有足够的时间来分析和研究公司的收入趋势和驱动因素。阿里巴巴的衰落是突然的，残酷的反垄断打压加速了这一衰落，永久性地改变了IT竞争格局，有利于规模较小的同行。虽然新投资者表现出逢低买入的勇气，但管理层却感到恐惧，这反映在商户补贴上，该补贴拖累了上季度净利润 74%，这是维持收入和用户的不可持续尝试。</blockquote></p><p>Cash Flow And Share Buybacks</p><p><blockquote>现金流和股票回购</blockquote></p><p>Fundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.</p><p><blockquote>从根本上说，阿里巴巴的商业模式是健全的，产生了利润丰厚、可扩展的运营现金流，这鼓励这家电子商务巨头上个月延长了股票回购计划。阿里巴巴面临的挑战源于其无力管理投资者的预期。从历史上看，阿里巴巴-SW吸引了以增长为导向的股东基础，现在其核心业务正在成熟，管理层发现很难向股东传达其过渡状态。投资者演示仍然将阿里巴巴-SW推销为一家成长型公司。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.</p><p><blockquote>问题是许多人上当了。几周前，Kevin O'Leary 正在吹捧他的新阿里巴巴-SW职位，理由是中国科技的增长潜力。芒格和奥利里是这个渴望增长的股东群体的代表。</blockquote></p><p>How Loyal Is Softbank</p><p><blockquote>软银有多忠诚</blockquote></p><p>SoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.</p><p><blockquote>软银集团（OTCPK：SFTBY）拥有阿里巴巴约三分之一的股份，使这家日本金融巨头成为其最大股东。软银以其冒险精神和对新兴科技公司的支持而闻名。然而，其参与早期融资周期意味着其持仓的美元平均价格远低于普通投资者。例如，在 2021 年第四季度，软银报告称，尽管股票遭到抛售，但出售部分阿里巴巴-SW股票仍获得了 5.58 亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p>Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>软银正面临新的资本问题。这家日本银行可能被迫出售阿里巴巴-SW股票，特别是如果在可能令人失望的财报发布后股价进一步下跌。有一点是肯定的，目前的情况正在考验软银对阿里巴巴-SW的忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p>Alibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its "competitive advantage." The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW五月份将迎来灾难性的季度和年终业绩。我无法想象阿里巴巴-SW能够实现股东的高增长预期。阿里巴巴-SW的大部分收入来自中国，中国经济正在与不断上升的新冠病例和严格的封锁规定作斗争。对于阿里巴巴-SW来说，时机再糟糕不过了，目前正在努力制定新法规，剥夺了其“竞争优势”。核心分部，即中国电子商务，已达到成熟，拥有9.73亿用户。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4502007-alibaba-3-reasons-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134362695","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where BABA delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations.Charlie Munger sold half of his BABA shares, sensing the rough patch ahead.BABA's volatility will sure test the loyalty of Softbank, BABA's largest shareholder.Executive SummaryThis year, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA) faces multiple revenue headwinds hampering its growth prospects. Management's growth initiatives have long-run potential but are too small to make a meaningful difference in the short and medium run. Alibaba's growth-oriented shareholder base will exacerbate a volatile market reaction over what we see as a disappointing earnings release in May.Investment ThesisNews of Charlie Mungersellingsignificant portions of his Alibaba position doesn't come as a surprise. My last two articles offered a rebuttal of The Daily Journal (DJCO) mogul's investment thesis touting Alibaba's shares on news media, citing competitive advantage, growth, and \"value for the dollar invested.\" Hearing him, I realized that his investment thesis needed updating and, more importantly, how oblivious Alibaba's investors are to its new realities.Until recently, Alibaba abused its market position to force merchants to sign exclusivity agreements, prohibiting them from marketing products on other platforms. What Charlie Munger thought was \"competitive advantage\" is, to a large extent, a monopoly that has come to an end after a brutal corruption and regulatory crackdown.Munger also mentions a \"higher value of a dollar invested\" in Alibaba than its US and European counterparts. This hypothesis was true six months ago, but today, there are many western tech companies trading at discounts after the growth-to-value rotation.Finally, the growth argument is also no longer helpful because of a maturing core segment and the low revenue base of growth drivers such as Cloud and the international market. The Q3 (December quarter) mediocre revenue growth mirrors these dynamics.Revenue TrendsAlibaba investors should prepare for volatile quarterly results this May. Realizing the rough patch ahead, Munger shrank his position, and you should consider doing the same. As always, be careful using leverage. Contrary to popular opinion, Alibaba is not necessarily at the bottom.Last month, growth-hungry shareholders weren't kind to the ticker after disappointing topline results, pushing shares to multi-year lows. Regardless of how much data and price multiples support your hypothesis, nothing can prevent shares from dipping again. Market prices are determined by supply and demand, and I believe there is a discrepancy between what Alibaba can deliver and what its shareholders expect in terms of growth.The company faces three main headwinds:Macro-economic challengesMaturing Chinese MarketRising CompetitionThe zero-COVID policy is squeezing China consumers, dragging down consumer confidence. Google \"China Lockdown,\" and you'll find chilling videos of desperate Chinese citizens struggling with lockdowns. In this video, Shanghai residents are heard screaming from their balconies in protest of the lockdowns, and they don't seem in the mood for shopping on Alibaba. Instead, they appear more concerned about increasing prices, lack of income, depleting savings, food shortages, and inadequate food rations. The economic environment is not accommodative for Alibaba to meet Wall Street's 33% 2022 revenue growth expectations.Alibaba Revenue Estimates(Seeking Alpha)Alibaba's macroeconomic challenges are the least of its troubles. One might argue that business cycles are temporary, similar to COVID policies, despite their short-term impact on this year's revenue. This would make a solid contrarian strategy, especially for those with a stomach to sit on losses for long periods of time, if it wasn't for the fundamental, long-term revenue disruption impacting Alibaba.The China e-commerce \"CEC\" segment constitutes 70% of Alibaba's revenue. Annual active users now stand at 937 million against a total population of 1.4 billion, with 260 million below the age of 15, pointing to a saturated market. Last quarter, CEC grew 7%, a disappointing figure given it includes inorganic growth from the Sun Art acquisition, mirroring demographic challenges facing its core segment.Management is trying to find growth in rural China. However, sales data from its competitor, Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD), which focuses on this market and posts 900 million annual active users, points to a weak purchasing power that is not enough to create meaningful growth.The same goes for cloud computing and international markets, which, together with rural China expansion, represent the company's official growth strategy. The Cloud and International Segment represent 8% and 7% of total revenue. For these segments to compensate for a 10% decrease in core operations, both need to grow by 50% just for revenue to remain constant, still a hard-to-swallow proposition for a growth-hungry shareholder base.I don't believe that those buying the dip had enough time to analyze and study the company's revenue trends and drivers. Alibaba's fall was abrupt, accelerated by a brutal anti-monopoly crackdown that permanently changed the IT competitive landscape in favor of smaller peers. While new investors are showing courage in buying the dip, management is terrified, as reflected in merchant subsidies, which dragged net income 74% last quarter in an unsustainable attempt to maintain revenue and users.Cash Flow And Share BuybacksFundamentally, Alibaba's business model is sound, generating lucrative, scalable operating cash flows that encouraged the e-commerce giant to extend a share buyback program last month. Alibaba's challenges stem from its inability to manage investors' expectations. Historically, Alibaba attracted a growth-oriented shareholder base, and now that its core operations are maturing, management is finding it hard to communicate its transitionary state to shareholders. Investor presentations still market Alibaba as a growth company.The problem is that many are falling for it. A few weeks ago, Kevin O'Leary was touting his new Alibaba position, citing the growth potential of Chinese tech. Munger and O'Leary are representative of this growth-hungry shareholder base.How Loyal Is SoftbankSoftBank Group (OTCPK:SFTBY) owns about a third of Alibaba's share, rendering the Japanese financial giant its largest shareholder. Softbank is known for its risk-taking and support for emerging tech companies. However, its participation in early capital-raising cycles means the dollar-average price of its position is far less than ordinary investors. For example, in FQ4 2021, Softbank reported a $558 million gain on selling some Alibaba shares, despite the ticker's selloff.Softbank is facing renewed capitalization issues. The Japanese lender might be forced to sell Alibaba stock, especially if shares tumble further after a potentially disappointing earnings release. One thing is for sure, and the current situation is testing Softbank's loyalty to Alibaba.SummaryAlibaba is heading towards disastrous quarterly and end-of-year results in May. I can't imagine a scenario where Alibaba delivers on its shareholder's high growth expectations. The Chinese economy, where Alibaba generates most of its income, struggles with rising COVID cases and rigid lockdown rules. The timing couldn't be worse for Alibaba, currently toiling with new regulations that stripped it from its \"competitive advantage.\" The core segment, i.e., China e-commerce, has reached maturity with 973 million users.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1232,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/611891779"}
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