秦少.
10-06
等到28年建好，估计ai已经不需要了
大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹
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小肥狼
10-06
小肥狼
HDD缺口太大了 扩产也能消化 但过去十年的惨痛教训让两巨头决定死守供给纪律
什么也没有了～
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1
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data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩等投行反驳东芝扩产恐慌，西部数据、希捷科技大幅反弹\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-05 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月5日，美股存储概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>涨超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>跌近2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f7651c9af3452fd9d734c90d5e329cd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce7590b1ebe0608f4e8c0084a6184023\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>上一交易日，东芝硬盘扩产消息引发板块股价回调，西部数据、希捷科技双双跌超10%。随后，摩根士丹利与伯恩斯坦相继发布调研报告，反驳市场恐慌，两家机构均认为市场对东芝扩产消息反应过度，实际对行业供给冲击有限；AI代理任务、物理AI催生增量存储需求，HDD供需紧张格局延续，维持希捷、西部数据看多评级，其中大摩将希捷列为首选标的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">摩根士丹利经过产业链走访调研表示，菲律宾工厂的扩产为东芝已规划两年的项目，年产能增速约30%，仅与行业整体供给增速持平，难以追上快速扩张的市场需求。受TDK、Resonac核心零部件约束、技术路线落后等因素制约，扩产落地时间偏激进，实现难度较高。日经报道提及的30%市场份额属于老旧目标，现实条件下很难达成，合理预期东芝市占率仅有望抬升至12‑13%。同时大摩确认，希捷、西部数据暂无新增扩产计划，行业价格策略也未发生调整。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需求端方面，摩根士丹利指出近1‑2个月HDD需求出现加速，除传统公有云厂商以外，新锐云厂商、人形物理AI企业成为新增采购力量；AI智能体工作负载会产生大量需要持久留存的上下文数据，进一步拉动硬盘消耗。现货市场价格走强，非长协订单现货报价达到3‑5美分/GB，显著高于合约价，验证行业定价上行逻辑。2026年行业供给缺口约300EB，2027‑2028年缺口将扩大至400EB。估值层面，希捷对应2028年基准情景EPS为10倍PE，乐观情景仅6.8倍；西部数据对应2028年基准情景8.5倍PE，乐观情景5.8倍，估值具备吸引力。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伯恩斯坦同样认为东芝扩产属于“小题大做”。即便乐观假设东芝完成产能近乎翻倍，叠加希捷、西数保持25%的年容量增长，东芝市占率也仅能由11.2%提升至16.8%，远达不到30%。从资本开支角度，报道提及3.8亿美元投入不足以支撑大规模产能翻倍；东芝面密度技术显著落后同业，高容量产品迭代滞后，扩产将被迫增加更多物理盘体，资本压力更大，执行风险突出。伯恩斯坦重申对两家公司“跑赢大盘”评级，希捷目标价1350美元，西部数据目标价770美元，建议借本次股价回调布局。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"BK4605":"半导体精选","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0162691827.USD":"BGF US BASIC VALUE \"A4\" INC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0240877869.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL SMALL COMPANIES \"A\" ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","LU0823413587.USD":"BNP PARIBAS 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