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2022-06-04

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"Goldman Is Wrong": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout<blockquote>“高盛错了”：锂矿商无视股价暴跌</blockquote>

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And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.<blockquote>“那只是一周前，还有一些团体在叫嚣这种产品，所以我们看到了强劲的需求。我在高盛的报告中注意到，他们[也]支持强劲的需求，但他们暗示的是强劲的供应即将到来，”他说。</blockquote>“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?<blockquote>“当然，供应会到来，问题是什么时候到来。会有一些供应，但短期内真的会改变天平吗？</blockquote>“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”<blockquote>“长期以来，原材料供应方面的投资不足.....显然，各集团现在正在向前发展，但酝酿期很长，因此从短期来看，我们认为前景相当乐观”。</blockquote>In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.<blockquote>相比之下，高盛警告说，过去两年锂价的繁荣刺激了 “远远领先于需求趋势的过度供应反应”，预示着未来两年锂价将出现 “急剧调整”。锂价格因地理位置、等级和形式而异，但投资银行预测碳酸锂到 2023 年将从每吨 60,000 美元左右下滑至每吨 16,372 美元。</blockquote>Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.<blockquote>Galan Lithium 董事兼锂咨询公司 iLiMarkets 合伙人丹尼尔·希门尼斯 (Daniel Jimenez) 同意，股票投资者对经纪商报告和其他头条新闻感到不安，但低估了需求，高估了供应。</blockquote>“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”我认为高盛完全错了。</blockquote>Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.<blockquote>希门尼斯先生说，欧洲电动汽车的等待时间已长达 24 个月，这表明目前的 “实际 ”需求 “明显高于 ”汽车销售所暗示的，而且所需的锂量将比预期的要多，而不是少。</blockquote>He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.<blockquote>他预计，全球碳酸锂当量需求将从去年的 50 万吨增加到 2025 年的 140 万吨，高于高盛的预测。至于供应，希门尼斯先生说，今天未知的新项目不太可能上线，而且 “没有进入过这个行业 ”的人很难评估扩大锂项目或建设新项目的挑战性。</blockquote>The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.<blockquote>智利主要生产商 SQM 的前高管表示，添加电动汽车原始设备制造商 (OEM) 一直有更雄心勃勃的计划，并且需要比预测者预期更多的锂，而供应往往被高估。</blockquote>“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”除非世界上发生真正的灾难性事件，比如第三次世界大战或经济崩溃，否则我认为我们不太可能在未来五年内看到一个不缺锂的市场。</blockquote>Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.<blockquote>Argonaut 分析师乔治-罗斯（George Ross）说，他也怀疑上市的锂供应能否 “像预测的那样迅速 ”到位，并指出锂辉石和盐水业务的调试存在许多技术挑战。</blockquote>However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.<blockquote>不过，他承认锂股看起来仍然 “过度膨胀”，今年的累计市值从 2015 年的不到 10 亿美元增至 480 亿美元。</blockquote>Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.<blockquote>皮尔巴拉股价暴跌后，麦格理分析师表示，市场对碳酸锂的定价为每吨 1.3 万美元，比中国现货价格低约 80%，锂辉石的定价为每吨 950 美元，比最近拍卖的价格低 85%。</blockquote>Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.<blockquote>亨德森先生于 2017 年在锂市场经历两年熊市之前加入皮尔巴拉，他说 “很难想象 ”锂价会回到那些黑暗的日子，他希望 “尽快.出于显而易见的原因 ”进行另一次拍卖。</blockquote>“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”<blockquote>“他说：”等式的需求方在结构上有所不同。“锂似乎已经从当时这种投机性很强的商品变成了公认的未来关键成分”。</blockquote>Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.<blockquote>麦格理（Macquarie）分析师本周略微下调了对2022年电动汽车销量的预测，但仍预计比去年增长43%，达到950万辆，并表示锂和钴价格的任何回调都可能是 “一旦中国反弹”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1647818771712","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Goldman Is Wrong\": Lithium Miners Brush off Share Price Rout<blockquote>“高盛错了”：锂矿商无视股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nAustralian Financial Review2022-06-02 13:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals given ongoing strong demand for electric vehicles and the time it takes to bring on new supply.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>锂业巨头皮尔巴拉矿业公司（Pilbara Minerals）即将上任的首席执行官对券商对这一热门行业的一些看跌言论不屑一顾，称鉴于电动汽车的需求持续强劲，而且需要时间来引入新的供应，这是电池金属市场的 “大胆 ”举措。</body></html></blockquote>On the weekend, Goldman Sachs’s UK-based analysts warned the battery metals bull market was “over for now”, while Credit Suisse’s Australian team told clients lithium prices may peak in the “next few months” as markets price in a balancing of supply and demand in coming years.<blockquote>上周末，高盛（Goldman Sachs）驻英国分析师警告说，电池金属牛市 “暂时结束”，而瑞士信贷（Credit Suisse）的澳大利亚团队则告诉客户，随着未来几年供需平衡的市场价格，锂价可能会在 “未来几个月 ”达到顶峰。</blockquote>It followed reports that Argentina’s plan to set a reference price for lithium carbonate exports and that Chinese EV manufacturer BYD was in talks to buy six African lithium mines that could supply it raw material for a decade.<blockquote>此前有报道称，阿根廷计划为碳酸锂出口设定参考价格，中国电动汽车制造商比亚迪正在洽谈购买六个非洲锂矿，这些锂矿可为其提供十年的原材料。</blockquote>The collision of negative headlines sparked ashare price rout among Australian listed lithium playersincluding Pilbara, IGO, Liontown Resources, Allkem and Mineral Resources on Wednesday, with Pilbara suffering one of the biggest declines of 18 per cent.<blockquote>周三，负面新闻的碰撞引发了澳大利亚上市锂公司（包括 Pilbara、IGO、Liontown Resources、Allkem 和 Mineral Resources）的股价暴跌，其中 Pilbara 跌幅最大，达 18%。</blockquote>By early afternoon on Thursday, share prices were about flat or recovered some of the losses.<blockquote>到周四下午早些时候，股价基本持平或收复了部分失地。</blockquote>Dale Henderson, who Pilbara late on Wednesday revealed would replace Ken Brinsden as CEO on July 30, said he was surprised by the share moves given the lack of changes in spot lithium prices, but it seemed the broker notes had “startled the horses”.<blockquote>皮尔巴拉公司（Pilbara）周三晚些时候透露，戴尔-亨德森（Dale Henderson）将于7月30日接替肯-布林斯登（Ken Brinsden）担任首席执行官。</blockquote>“It’s a fairly bold call to say the peak has occurred, and the downhill trend will start within this calendar year,” he toldThe Australian Financial Review.<blockquote>“他说：”说高峰已经出现，下滑趋势将在本日历年内开始，这是一个相当大胆的看涨期权。澳大利亚金融评论。</blockquote>Mr Henderson said the near term outlook remained “very positive”, noting the company last weeksecured a record price for a cargo of spodumenesold via its auction platform.<blockquote>亨德森先生表示，近期前景仍然 “非常乐观”，并指出该公司上周通过其拍卖平台以创纪录的价格售出了一批锂辉石。</blockquote>“That was only a week ago and there were groups clamouring for that product, so we see that strong demand. And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.<blockquote>“那只是一周前，还有一些团体在叫嚣这种产品，所以我们看到了强劲的需求。我在高盛的报告中注意到，他们[也]支持强劲的需求，但他们暗示的是强劲的供应即将到来，”他说。</blockquote>“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?<blockquote>“当然，供应会到来，问题是什么时候到来。会有一些供应，但短期内真的会改变天平吗？</blockquote>“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”<blockquote>“长期以来，原材料供应方面的投资不足.....显然，各集团现在正在向前发展，但酝酿期很长，因此从短期来看，我们认为前景相当乐观”。</blockquote>In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.<blockquote>相比之下，高盛警告说，过去两年锂价的繁荣刺激了 “远远领先于需求趋势的过度供应反应”，预示着未来两年锂价将出现 “急剧调整”。锂价格因地理位置、等级和形式而异，但投资银行预测碳酸锂到 2023 年将从每吨 60,000 美元左右下滑至每吨 16,372 美元。</blockquote>Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.<blockquote>Galan Lithium 董事兼锂咨询公司 iLiMarkets 合伙人丹尼尔·希门尼斯 (Daniel Jimenez) 同意，股票投资者对经纪商报告和其他头条新闻感到不安，但低估了需求，高估了供应。</blockquote>“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”我认为高盛完全错了。</blockquote>Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.<blockquote>希门尼斯先生说，欧洲电动汽车的等待时间已长达 24 个月，这表明目前的 “实际 ”需求 “明显高于 ”汽车销售所暗示的，而且所需的锂量将比预期的要多，而不是少。</blockquote>He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.<blockquote>他预计，全球碳酸锂当量需求将从去年的 50 万吨增加到 2025 年的 140 万吨，高于高盛的预测。至于供应，希门尼斯先生说，今天未知的新项目不太可能上线，而且 “没有进入过这个行业 ”的人很难评估扩大锂项目或建设新项目的挑战性。</blockquote>The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.<blockquote>智利主要生产商 SQM 的前高管表示，添加电动汽车原始设备制造商 (OEM) 一直有更雄心勃勃的计划，并且需要比预测者预期更多的锂，而供应往往被高估。</blockquote>“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.<blockquote>“他说：”除非世界上发生真正的灾难性事件，比如第三次世界大战或经济崩溃，否则我认为我们不太可能在未来五年内看到一个不缺锂的市场。</blockquote>Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.<blockquote>Argonaut 分析师乔治-罗斯（George Ross）说，他也怀疑上市的锂供应能否 “像预测的那样迅速 ”到位，并指出锂辉石和盐水业务的调试存在许多技术挑战。</blockquote>However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.<blockquote>不过，他承认锂股看起来仍然 “过度膨胀”，今年的累计市值从 2015 年的不到 10 亿美元增至 480 亿美元。</blockquote>Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.<blockquote>皮尔巴拉股价暴跌后，麦格理分析师表示，市场对碳酸锂的定价为每吨 1.3 万美元，比中国现货价格低约 80%，锂辉石的定价为每吨 950 美元，比最近拍卖的价格低 85%。</blockquote>Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.<blockquote>亨德森先生于 2017 年在锂市场经历两年熊市之前加入皮尔巴拉，他说 “很难想象 ”锂价会回到那些黑暗的日子，他希望 “尽快.出于显而易见的原因 ”进行另一次拍卖。</blockquote>“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”<blockquote>“他说：”等式的需求方在结构上有所不同。“锂似乎已经从当时这种投机性很强的商品变成了公认的未来关键成分”。</blockquote>Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.<blockquote>麦格理（Macquarie）分析师本周略微下调了对2022年电动汽车销量的预测，但仍预计比去年增长43%，达到950万辆，并表示锂和钴价格的任何回调都可能是 “一旦中国反弹”。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj\">Australian Financial Review</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLS.AU":"PLS Group Ltd","IGO.AU":"IGO LTD"},"source_url":"https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-open-down-as-wall-st-stumbles-20220602-p5aqfj","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184850825","content_text":"The incoming chief executive of lithium major Pilbara Minerals has shrugged off a handful of bearish broker notes on the hot sector, labelling it a “bold” move to call the peak for battery metals given ongoing strong demand for electric vehicles and the time it takes to bring on new supply.On the weekend, Goldman Sachs’s UK-based analysts warned the battery metals bull market was “over for now”, while Credit Suisse’s Australian team told clients lithium prices may peak in the “next few months” as markets price in a balancing of supply and demand in coming years.It followed reports that Argentina’s plan to set a reference price for lithium carbonate exports and that Chinese EV manufacturer BYD was in talks to buy six African lithium mines that could supply it raw material for a decade.The collision of negative headlines sparked ashare price rout among Australian listed lithium playersincluding Pilbara, IGO, Liontown Resources, Allkem and Mineral Resources on Wednesday, with Pilbara suffering one of the biggest declines of 18 per cent.By early afternoon on Thursday, share prices were about flat or recovered some of the losses.Dale Henderson, who Pilbara late on Wednesday revealed would replace Ken Brinsden as CEO on July 30, said he was surprised by the share moves given the lack of changes in spot lithium prices, but it seemed the broker notes had “startled the horses”.“It’s a fairly bold call to say the peak has occurred, and the downhill trend will start within this calendar year,” he toldThe Australian Financial Review.Mr Henderson said the near term outlook remained “very positive”, noting the company last weeksecured a record price for a cargo of spodumenesold via its auction platform.“That was only a week ago and there were groups clamouring for that product, so we see that strong demand. And I note in the Goldmans report that they support strong demand [too] but what they’re suggesting is there strong supply coming on foot” he said.“Of course that supply is coming, the question is when. There’ll be some coming on, but is it really going to tip the scales in the near term?“There’s been a long period of underinvestment on the raw materials supply side and...obviously groups are moving forward now, but there is a long gestation period there, so in the near term we think the outlook looks fairly positive.”In contrast, Goldman warned that the lithium price boom of the past two years had spurred an “outsized supply response well ahead of the demand trend”, tipping a “sharp correction” in lithium prices in the next two years. Lithium prices vary depending on geography, grade and its form, but the investment bank forecast lithium carbonate to slide from around $US60,000 a tonne to $US16,372 a tonne in 2023.Daniel Jimenez, a director of Galan Lithium who is also a partner of lithium consultancy iLiMarkets, agreed equity investors had been unnerved by the broker notes and other headlines, but were underestimating demand and overestimating supply.“I think Goldman Sachs has it totally wrong,” he said.Mr Jimenez said wait times for EVs in Europe had blown out to up to 24 months, showing “real” demand was “significantly higher” today than car sales suggest, and more lithium, rather than less, would be needed than expected.He expects global lithium carbonate equivalent demand to rise from 500,000 tonnes last year to 1.4 million in 2025, above Goldman’s forecast. As for supply, Mr Jimenez said it was unlikely new projects not known today would come online, and it’s hard for people “who have not been in the industry” to assess how challenging it is to expand lithium projects or build new ones.The former executive at major Chilean producer SQM said adding EV original equipment manufacturers, or OEMs, consistently had more ambitious plans and required more lithium than forecasters expected, while supply tended to be overestimated.“Unless something really catastrophic happens in the world, a third world war or an economic crash, I think it’s very unlikely we will see over the next five years a market where lithium is not short,” he said.Argonaut analyst George Ross said he was also sceptical the lithium supply coming to market would hit “as quickly as predicted”, noting many technical challenges in commissioning spodumene and brine operations.However, he conceded lithium stocks still look “overly inflated” after cumulative market capitalisations hit $48 billion this year up from less than $1 billion in 2015.Following Pilbara’s share price slump, Macquarie analysts said the market was pricing in a flat lithium carbonate price of $US13,000 a tonne -- about 80 per cent below spot prices in China -- or spodumene at $US950 a tonne, 85 per cent below the price secured in its recent auction.Mr Henderson, who joined Pilbara in 2017 ahead of the lithium market’s two-year bear market, said it’s “very hard to imagine” lithium prices returning to those dark days, and he’d like to do another auction as “soon as possible… for obvious reasons”.“The demand side of the equation is structurally different,” he said. “It seems lithium has gone from this very speculative sort of commodity back then to what’s sort of acknowledged as a key ingredient for the future.”Macquarie’s analysts this week slightly reduced their 2022 EV sales forecasts, but still expect 43 per cent growth on last year to 9.5 million vehicles, and said any lithium and cobalt price pullbacks could be “temporary once China bounces back”.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IGO.AU":0.9,"PLS.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2176,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/617640071"}