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美债收益率持稳高位,市场本周静候CPI与沃什:押注待到12月再继续加息
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17:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美债收益率持稳高位,市场本周静候CPI与沃什:押注待到12月再继续加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2674558873","media":"智通财经","summary":"新的一周,投资者眼下在等两件事:新的数据,以及美联储主席凯文·沃什关于美联储将以多快速度继续加息的暗示。据报道,10 年期美债收益率 10 月 7 日盘中触及 5.364%,为 2002 年以来最高,30 年期同期触及 5.696%;10 年期收益率今年以来累计上行近 120 个基点,第三季度是 1994 年以来美债表现最差的一个季度。两项同比指标预计均走高,整体为 3.6%,核心为 2.5%。美联储将从周六起进入例行的沟通静默期,直至 10 月 28 日结束的两天议息会议。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">智通财经APP获悉,上月美联储一致通过加息后,美债收益率曾急剧跳升;上周则基本没有变化,在 24 年高位附近徘徊。新的一周,投资者眼下在等两件事:新的数据,以及美联储主席凯文·沃什关于美联储将以多快速度继续加息的暗示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>抛售被就业数据按住,收益率在高位横着</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这轮债券抛售被非农就业报告显示的就业增长大幅放缓所抑制。这使交易员预计,美联储在 10 月底的下次会议上将按兵不动——他们仍预计 12 月加息 25 个基点,并在 2027 年底前再加两次。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据报道,10 年期美债收益率 10 月 7 日盘中触及 5.364%,为 2002 年以来最高,30 年期同期触及 5.696%;10 年期收益率今年以来累计上行近 120 个基点,第三季度是 1994 年以来美债表现最差的一个季度。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65844c5336cc58e5fd52842f1ef494c5\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"505\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>风险是不对称的:CPI 高一点,比低一点麻烦得多</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当前的仓位布局正在加大一种风险:如果 9 月消费者价格指数(CPI)的涨幅超出预期,可能重新点燃这轮抛售,因为它会让美联储面临更激进加息的压力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">道明证券美国利率策略师莫莉·<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRKR\">布鲁克</a>斯(Molly Brooks)认为,这份 CPI 报告的风险是不对称的——数据更热,可能表明美联储需要加快紧缩步伐;而数据更弱或符合预期,则继续支撑美联储今后保持谨慎。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">9 月 CPI 定于周三(10 月 14 日)公布,据对经济学家的调查,环比预计上涨 0.6%,高于前值 0.4%;剔除波动较大的食品与能源价格后,核心 CPI 环比预计从 0.3% 放缓至 0.2%。两项同比指标预计均走高,整体为 3.6%,核心为 2.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>沃什的窗口:静默期前的最后一周</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">沃什将于周四在泰国曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织(IMF)年会上参与一场讨论。另两位备受关注的官员——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)与克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克(Beth Hammack)——也将发表讲话。美联储将从周六起进入例行的沟通静默期,直至 10 月 28 日结束的两天议息会议。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">布鲁克斯说:“这将是静默期前的最后一周,因此 CPI 之后的联储表态,将帮助市场对下次会议的结果少一些不确定性。”她同时表示:“沃什可能会继续回避前瞻指引,而市场也正是这样预期的。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">利率期货目前显示 10 月会议按兵不动的概率约 80%;9 月非农就业仅新增 2.9 万人之后,市场对 10 月加息的定价从约 70% 降至 20%-25%。沃勒 10 月 8 日曾表示,加息“不必在连续会议上进行”——这被市场读作 10 月可以暂停的信号。另外,债券市场周一因公共假日休市,美国股市照常交易。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4680a7a88406099ed6b38566c9b951\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"627\" tg-height=\"432\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美债收益率持稳高位,市场本周静候CPI与沃什:押注待到12月再继续加息</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1505900.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"TSYX":"TSPY Lift ETF","BXMX":"Nuveen S&P 500 Buy-Write Income Fund","KSPY":"KraneShares Hedgeye Hedged Equity Index ETF","BKLG":"BNY Mellon US Large Cap Equity Growth ETF","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","XYLG":"S&P 500 Covered Call & Growth ETF","QJN":"Corgi Growth & Technology 10% Structured Buffer ETF - June Series","STRV":"Strive 500 ETF","GSLC":"Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Large Cap Equity ETF","CAIE":"Calamos Autocallable Income ETF","VAIE":"VegaShares US Equity Autocallable Income ETF","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","IUS":"Invesco RAFI Strategic US ETF","SVOL":"Simplify Volatility Premium ETF","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","USPX":"Franklin U.S. Equity Index ETF","LDER":"LifeX 2040 Term 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Utilities ETF","XNTK":"SPDR NYSE Technology ETF","VTG":"Vanguard Total Treasury ETF","XBOX":"Roundhill BOX Spread ETF","CPNM":"Calamos Nasdaq-100Structured Alt Protection ETF - March","IYY":"iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Ind","MMAR":"Pacer Swan SOS Moderate (March) ETF","VFMO":"Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor ETF","XSPI":"NEOS Boosted S&P 500 High Income ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1505900.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2674558873","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,上月美联储一致通过加息后,美债收益率曾急剧跳升;上周则基本没有变化,在 24 年高位附近徘徊。新的一周,投资者眼下在等两件事:新的数据,以及美联储主席凯文·沃什关于美联储将以多快速度继续加息的暗示。抛售被就业数据按住,收益率在高位横着这轮债券抛售被非农就业报告显示的就业增长大幅放缓所抑制。这使交易员预计,美联储在 10 月底的下次会议上将按兵不动——他们仍预计 12 月加息 25 个基点,并在 2027 年底前再加两次。据报道,10 年期美债收益率 10 月 7 日盘中触及 5.364%,为 2002 年以来最高,30 年期同期触及 5.696%;10 年期收益率今年以来累计上行近 120 个基点,第三季度是 1994 年以来美债表现最差的一个季度。风险是不对称的:CPI 高一点,比低一点麻烦得多当前的仓位布局正在加大一种风险:如果 9 月消费者价格指数(CPI)的涨幅超出预期,可能重新点燃这轮抛售,因为它会让美联储面临更激进加息的压力。道明证券美国利率策略师莫莉·布鲁克斯(Molly Brooks)认为,这份 CPI 报告的风险是不对称的——数据更热,可能表明美联储需要加快紧缩步伐;而数据更弱或符合预期,则继续支撑美联储今后保持谨慎。9 月 CPI 定于周三(10 月 14 日)公布,据对经济学家的调查,环比预计上涨 0.6%,高于前值 0.4%;剔除波动较大的食品与能源价格后,核心 CPI 环比预计从 0.3% 放缓至 0.2%。两项同比指标预计均走高,整体为 3.6%,核心为 2.5%。沃什的窗口:静默期前的最后一周沃什将于周四在泰国曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织(IMF)年会上参与一场讨论。另两位备受关注的官员——美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)与克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克(Beth Hammack)——也将发表讲话。美联储将从周六起进入例行的沟通静默期,直至 10 月 28 日结束的两天议息会议。布鲁克斯说:“这将是静默期前的最后一周,因此 CPI 之后的联储表态,将帮助市场对下次会议的结果少一些不确定性。”她同时表示:“沃什可能会继续回避前瞻指引,而市场也正是这样预期的。”利率期货目前显示 10 月会议按兵不动的概率约 80%;9 月非农就业仅新增 2.9 万人之后,市场对 10 月加息的定价从约 70% 降至 20%-25%。沃勒 10 月 8 日曾表示,加息“不必在连续会议上进行”——这被市场读作 10 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