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黄金利空已大部分被定价！瑞银：美债收益率回落将让黄金复苏

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":621015836005008,"tweetId":"621015836005008","gmtCreate":1792642409672,"gmtModify":1792642411600,"author":{"id":4087621302757990,"idStr":"4087621302757990","authorId":4087621302757990,"authorIdStr":"4087621302757990","name":"灰太狼1234","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61e6ee1f6ea6c9f67ac64577349f24","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>跌穿4100了</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>跌穿4100了</p></body></html>","text":"跌穿4100了","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621015836005008","repostId":2674284030,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2674284030","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1791774900,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2674284030?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-10-12 11:15","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"黄金利空已大部分被定价！瑞银：美债收益率回落将让黄金复苏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2674284030","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银指出，黄金自9月初以来已下跌约5%至4140美元/盎司，主因美债收益率升破5.3%、美元走强。但认为鹰派利空已大部分被定价，美国劳动力市场走软信号与加息预期降温正推动买入机会成形。历史数据显示，过去三次美债收益率从高位回落后，黄金分别上涨5.9%、11.4%和14.4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄金正在经历一轮由美联储鹰派预期驱动的调整，但瑞银认为，最坏的时刻或许已经过去。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄金自9月初以来已累计下跌约5%。瑞银在10月12日发布的研报中指出，强于预期的经济数据与持续的通胀压力，重新点燃了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>在此期间从约4.8%攀升至5.3%以上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>从约100升至102以上，金价则从逾4400美元/盎司跌至约4140美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e082e523eebdb902953d96b57b8b87a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"436\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一走势与8月底沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表鹰派讲话后的市场重新定价如出一辙。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该行认为近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，若劳动力市场持续降温、美债收益率从高位回落，黄金存在显著反弹空间——历史上三次类似情形中，黄金分别上涨约5.9%、11.4%和14.4%。技术面上，3990至4030美元/盎司是关键近期支撑位；若金价有效突破4280至4320美元/盎司，将确认上行趋势延续</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利空已大部分消化，早期买入信号正在浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行<strong>认为，近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，更具建设性的入场时机正在形成。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经历调整后，金价目前在4140至4200美元/盎司区间企稳。与此同时，月末公布的劳动力市场数据有所走软，市场对10月美联储加息的预期也有所降温。该行表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这尚不能确认持久底部的形成，但支持我们的判断——风险天平正在变得不那么偏空。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a050016fd7f12479bed9e47af703b09\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"453\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">历史三次高收益率后的黄金表现：最高反弹14.4%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行梳理了过去三次美债收益率从高位回落后黄金的表现，数据颇具说服力：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2023年10月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在69个日历日内上涨约<strong>5.9%</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2024年4月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在144个日历日内上涨约<strong>11.4%</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年1月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在81个日历日内上涨约<strong>14.4%</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9c9bc32c0a1851040a8818f7aeec74\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"682\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三次反弹的触发因素各有不同：2023年底是经济数据走软与“长期更高”预期逆转；2024年是劳动力市场降温与降息预期升温；2025年初则是增长预期放缓与政策不确定性上升。但共同点是：市场重新评估货币政策需要维持多大限制性，国债收益率随之回落，黄金随之复苏。报告指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>若劳动力市场持续降温、油价趋于稳定，我们预计进一步加息的理由将会减弱。加息预期与国债收益率的持续缓和，将为正在形成的买入机会提供更强确认。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a90212cb55c1e1409df0c06f3de4d696\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"393\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">技术面：4000美元是关键防线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从技术角度，瑞银将<strong>3990至4030美元/盎司</strong>视为关键近期支撑区间。</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若金价有效跌破<strong>4000美元/盎司</strong>，意味着更深度调整</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若金价持续站稳<strong>4280至4320美元/盎司</strong>以上，则代表技术动能的实质性改善，确认近期回调仍属大趋势中的整理</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前金价仍处于短期均线下方，近期动能偏软，但买入信号正在成形。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f7627e609677e24f8661b81810973\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"616\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金利空已大部分被定价！瑞银：美债收益率回落将让黄金复苏</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金利空已大部分被定价！瑞银：美债收益率回落将让黄金复苏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-10-12 11:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄金正在经历一轮由美联储鹰派预期驱动的调整，但瑞银认为，最坏的时刻或许已经过去。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">黄金自9月初以来已累计下跌约5%。瑞银在10月12日发布的研报中指出，强于预期的经济数据与持续的通胀压力，重新点燃了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/US10Y.BOND\">美国10年期国债收益率</a>在此期间从约4.8%攀升至5.3%以上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>从约100升至102以上，金价则从逾4400美元/盎司跌至约4140美元/盎司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e082e523eebdb902953d96b57b8b87a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"436\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一走势与8月底沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表鹰派讲话后的市场重新定价如出一辙。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但该行认为近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，若劳动力市场持续降温、美债收益率从高位回落，黄金存在显著反弹空间——历史上三次类似情形中，黄金分别上涨约5.9%、11.4%和14.4%。技术面上，3990至4030美元/盎司是关键近期支撑位；若金价有效突破4280至4320美元/盎司，将确认上行趋势延续</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">利空已大部分消化，早期买入信号正在浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行<strong>认为，近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，更具建设性的入场时机正在形成。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">经历调整后，金价目前在4140至4200美元/盎司区间企稳。与此同时，月末公布的劳动力市场数据有所走软，市场对10月美联储加息的预期也有所降温。该行表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这尚不能确认持久底部的形成，但支持我们的判断——风险天平正在变得不那么偏空。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a050016fd7f12479bed9e47af703b09\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"453\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">历史三次高收益率后的黄金表现：最高反弹14.4%</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行梳理了过去三次美债收益率从高位回落后黄金的表现，数据颇具说服力：</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2023年10月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在69个日历日内上涨约<strong>5.9%</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2024年4月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在144个日历日内上涨约<strong>11.4%</strong></p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2025年1月高点</strong>回落后，黄金在81个日历日内上涨约<strong>14.4%</strong></p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9c9bc32c0a1851040a8818f7aeec74\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"682\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三次反弹的触发因素各有不同：2023年底是经济数据走软与“长期更高”预期逆转；2024年是劳动力市场降温与降息预期升温；2025年初则是增长预期放缓与政策不确定性上升。但共同点是：市场重新评估货币政策需要维持多大限制性，国债收益率随之回落，黄金随之复苏。报告指出：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>若劳动力市场持续降温、油价趋于稳定，我们预计进一步加息的理由将会减弱。加息预期与国债收益率的持续缓和，将为正在形成的买入机会提供更强确认。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a90212cb55c1e1409df0c06f3de4d696\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"393\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">技术面：4000美元是关键防线</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从技术角度，瑞银将<strong>3990至4030美元/盎司</strong>视为关键近期支撑区间。</p><ul><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若金价有效跌破<strong>4000美元/盎司</strong>，意味着更深度调整</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: left;\">若金价持续站稳<strong>4280至4320美元/盎司</strong>以上，则代表技术动能的实质性改善，确认近期回调仍属大趋势中的整理</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: left;\">目前金价仍处于短期均线下方，近期动能偏软，但买入信号正在成形。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/004f7627e609677e24f8661b81810973\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"616\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"IGLD":"FT Vest Gold Strategy Target Income ETF®","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","VTG":"Vanguard Total Treasury ETF","KGLD":"Kurv Gold Enhanced Income ETF","BSTP":"INNOVATOR BUFFER STEP-UP STRATEGY ETF","SPIN":"State Street SSGA US Equity Premium Income ETF","GBUG":"Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","BGLD":"FT Vest Gold Strategy Quarterly Buffer ETF","NYSX":"Global X NYSE 100 ETF","IYY":"iShares Trust Dow Jones U.S. Ind","OUNZ":"VanEck Merk黄金股票基金","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","KSPY":"KraneShares Hedgeye Hedged Equity Index ETF","CPNM":"Calamos Nasdaq-100Structured Alt Protection ETF - 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GOLD 3X LEVERAGED ETN","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","IBTB":"iShares iBonds Dec 2022 Term Treasury ETF","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","XSPI":"NEOS Boosted S&P 500 High Income ETF","XXV":"SIMPLIFY ANCORATO TARGET 25 DISTRIBUTION ETF","BBUS":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders U.S. Equity ETF","STOX":"Horizon Core Equity ETF","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","GSUS":"Goldman Sachs MarketBeta U.S. Equity ETF","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","AESR":"Anfield U.S. Equity Sector Rotation ETF","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","GVLE":"Goldman Sachs Value Opportunities ETF","TSYX":"TSPY Lift ETF","JULD":"Premium Income 10 Barrier ETF","YGLD":"Simplify Gold Strategy PLUS Income ETF","BUFT":"FT Vest Buffered Allocation Defensive ETF","RSEE":"Rareview Systematic Equity ETF","QCJA":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Conservative Buffer ETF - January","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","OCDB":"Aptus October Deep Buffer ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3783397","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2674284030","content_text":"黄金正在经历一轮由美联储鹰派预期驱动的调整，但瑞银认为，最坏的时刻或许已经过去。黄金自9月初以来已累计下跌约5%。瑞银在10月12日发布的研报中指出，强于预期的经济数据与持续的通胀压力，重新点燃了市场对美联储进一步加息的预期。美国10年期国债收益率在此期间从约4.8%攀升至5.3%以上，美元指数从约100升至102以上，金价则从逾4400美元/盎司跌至约4140美元/盎司。这一走势与8月底沃什在杰克逊霍尔发表鹰派讲话后的市场重新定价如出一辙。但该行认为近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，若劳动力市场持续降温、美债收益率从高位回落，黄金存在显著反弹空间——历史上三次类似情形中，黄金分别上涨约5.9%、11.4%和14.4%。技术面上，3990至4030美元/盎司是关键近期支撑位；若金价有效突破4280至4320美元/盎司，将确认上行趋势延续利空已大部分消化，早期买入信号正在浮现该行认为，近期鹰派重新定价已大部分反映在金价中，更具建设性的入场时机正在形成。经历调整后，金价目前在4140至4200美元/盎司区间企稳。与此同时，月末公布的劳动力市场数据有所走软，市场对10月美联储加息的预期也有所降温。该行表示：这尚不能确认持久底部的形成，但支持我们的判断——风险天平正在变得不那么偏空。历史三次高收益率后的黄金表现：最高反弹14.4%该行梳理了过去三次美债收益率从高位回落后黄金的表现，数据颇具说服力：2023年10月高点回落后，黄金在69个日历日内上涨约5.9%2024年4月高点回落后，黄金在144个日历日内上涨约11.4%2025年1月高点回落后，黄金在81个日历日内上涨约14.4%三次反弹的触发因素各有不同：2023年底是经济数据走软与“长期更高”预期逆转；2024年是劳动力市场降温与降息预期升温；2025年初则是增长预期放缓与政策不确定性上升。但共同点是：市场重新评估货币政策需要维持多大限制性，国债收益率随之回落，黄金随之复苏。报告指出：若劳动力市场持续降温、油价趋于稳定，我们预计进一步加息的理由将会减弱。加息预期与国债收益率的持续缓和，将为正在形成的买入机会提供更强确认。技术面：4000美元是关键防线从技术角度，瑞银将3990至4030美元/盎司视为关键近期支撑区间。若金价有效跌破4000美元/盎司，意味着更深度调整若金价持续站稳4280至4320美元/盎司以上，则代表技术动能的实质性改善，确认近期回调仍属大趋势中的整理目前金价仍处于短期均线下方，近期动能偏软，但买入信号正在成形。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BXMX":1.5,"GLDY":0.6,"AESR":1.5,"GBUG":1.5,"IUS":1.5,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"RING":1.5,"VTG":1.5,"RSEE":1.5,"NYSX":1.5,"GCmain":2,"OBIL":1.5,"XXV":1.5,"DZZ":0.6,"DULL":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IAUM":0.6,"IBTB":1.5,"SGOL":0.6,"GDXJ":1.5,"OCDB":1.5,"UGL":0.6,"SHNY":1.5,"DGZ":0.6,"DGP":0.6,"GOLY":1.5,"GVLE":1.5,"FLV":1.5,"MGC2602":2,"FGDL":0.6,"VAIE":1.5,"GSE":1.5,"MGCmain":2,"RSSY":1.5,"BBUS":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"CPNQ":1.5,"1OZmain":2,"IYY":1.5,"BAR":0.6,"BKLG":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"BSTP":1.5,"QCJA":1.5,"XSPI":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"STOX":1.5,"DUST":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"SPIN":1.5,"IAUI":0.6,"EDGE":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"JULD":1.5,"IGLD":0.6,"OUNZ":1.5,"KSPY":1.5,"YGLD":0.6,"USG":0.6,"GLDM":0.6,"CPNM":1.5,"GSUS":1.5,"KGLD":0.6,"BUFT":1.5,"AAAU":0.6,"FAAR":1.5,"BGLD":0.6,"TSYX":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/621015836005008"}