Gabbitto
2022-01-24
Great article about palantir
Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?<blockquote>Palantir股票按当前估值是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":630409196,"tweetId":"630409196","gmtCreate":1643006642936,"gmtModify":1643006643139,"author":{"id":3572354414833798,"idStr":"3572354414833798","authorId":3572354414833798,"authorIdStr":"3572354414833798","name":"Gabbitto","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0311f1ab7f64f872e04022665866752","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":14,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Great article about palantir</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Great article about palantir</p></body></html>","text":"Great article about palantir","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630409196","repostId":1119030155,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119030155","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643006363,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119030155?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 14:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?<blockquote>Palantir股票按当前估值是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119030155","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.</li><li>Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, especially those in emerging technologies, as pandemic-era policy support dwindles with tightening monetary policy on the horizon.</li><li>Yet, there have been no material changes to the bullish thesis supporting Palantir's growth trajectory - the company continues to be well-positioned for growth opportunities arising from digitization trends.</li><li>Paired with its debt-free balance sheet, robust cash-on-hand balance, continued strength in generating cash from operations, and high-visibility revenues, Palantir makes a favourable investment ahead of the upcoming rate hikes with promising upside realizable over both the near and longer term.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fa252b01d9bd84e39574343c9fb409\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于宏观阻力不断加大，Palantir的股价较大约一年前创下的创纪录价格下跌了60%以上。</li><li>随着货币政策收紧，大流行时期的政策支持减少，投资者一直在远离高估值成长型股票，尤其是新兴科技股。</li><li>然而，支持Palantir增长轨迹的看涨论点并没有发生重大变化——该公司继续为数字化趋势带来的增长机会做好准备。</li><li>再加上其无债务资产负债表、强劲的手头现金余额、运营现金产生的持续实力以及高知名度的收入，Palantir在即将到来的加息之前进行了有利的投资，近期和长期都有望实现上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) continues to be caught in the broader market rout these days, with the stock’s value declining more than 12% since the year opened. The current macro backdrop has not made a favourable environment for high-growth segment stocks. The recent release of meeting minutes from the FOMC’s policy meeting in December, paired with increasing consumer price pressures at record-setting levels have triggered hawkish sentiments supporting faster and sooner rate hikes beginning as early as March to curb runaway inflation. The hastened withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus, coupled with the impending return of rate hikes have caused investors to turn risk averse on high-growth, high-valuation stocks. This is largely due to uncertainties over how the upcoming rate hikes might erode the value of future gains or stall business growth due to rising costs of capital.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）最近继续陷入大盘暴跌，自年初以来该股价值下跌了12%以上。当前的宏观背景并未为高增长板块股票创造有利环境。最近公布的FOMC 12月政策会议纪要，加上创纪录水平的消费者价格压力不断增加，引发了鹰派情绪，支持最早从3月份开始更快、更快地加息，以遏制失控的通胀。大流行时期刺激措施的加速退出，加上加息即将回归，导致投资者转向规避高增长、高估值股票的风险。这主要是由于即将到来的加息可能如何侵蚀未来收益的价值或因资本成本上升而阻碍业务增长的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p>While the imminent tightening of monetary policy has stoked fear amongst equity investors as they mull on how to price the upcoming rate hike impacts into asset valuations, we believe Palantir will emerge favourably in both the near- and long-term. On one hand, the inflation-resistant nature of Palantir’s business, paired with its high-growth prospects and ability to generate robust cash flows from operations should make it an attractive stock within the near-term amidst mounting macro pressures. Meanwhile, in the longer term, Palantir’s technology will continue to play a critical role in supporting key digital trends like AI, which will soon become a necessity instead of novelty in the data-driven era. On these considerations, we believe Palantir's stock will soon resume its upwardmomentum, with the upcoming earnings report being a potential catalyst to jumpstart its performance.</p><p><blockquote>尽管货币政策即将收紧引发了股票投资者的担忧，因为他们正在考虑如何将即将到来的加息影响纳入资产估值，但我们相信Palantir在近期和长期都将表现良好。一方面，Palantir业务的抗通胀性质，加上其高增长前景和从运营中产生强劲现金流的能力，应该使其在宏观压力不断加大的情况下成为短期内有吸引力的股票。与此同时，从长远来看，Palantir的技术将继续在支持人工智能等关键数字趋势方面发挥关键作用，人工智能很快将成为数据驱动时代的必需品，而不是新奇事物。基于这些考虑，我们相信Palantir的股价将很快恢复上涨势头，即将发布的收益报告将成为提振其业绩的潜在催化剂。</blockquote></p><p><b>Near-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的近期考虑</b></blockquote></p><p>In line with the broader market, Palantir's stock rallied on the first trading session of the year, with intraday gains of as much as 4%. However, the momentum was short-lived and has since been overtaken by an extended market rout triggered by increasingly hawkish narratives from Fed representatives. The rising urgency for faster and sooner rate hikes to combat the hottest inflation in close to four decades has sent market benchmarks like the S&P 500 on a rundown of close to 5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged by more than 8% since the year opened due to souring sentiment for high-growth, high-valuation stocks that have largely outperformed in the past 20 months. Instead, mature tech companies likeDell(NYSE:DELL) and HP(NYSE:HPQ)have been resilient due to their low debt, high cash flow, and stable-growth businesses, which provides a strong hedge against the impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>与大盘一致，Palantir股价在今年第一个交易日上涨，盘中涨幅高达4%。然而，这种势头是短暂的，此后被美联储代表日益鹰派的言论引发的长期市场暴跌所取代。越来越迫切需要更快、更快地加息以应对近四十年来最严重的通胀，导致标普500等市场基准下跌近5%。与此同时，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数自年初以来暴跌超过8%，原因是对过去20个月表现基本优于大盘的高增长、高估值股票的情绪恶化。相反，戴尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DELL）和惠普（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）等成熟科技公司由于其低债务、高现金流和稳定增长的业务而具有弹性，这为即将到来的加息提供了强有力的对冲。</blockquote></p><p>However, Palantir’s upcoming earnings report will likely jumpstart the stock toward a similar trend as the mature tech companies. The company boasts a promising growth outlook built on continued innovation, with high visibility into future cash flows thanks to a robust contracted revenue base. Palantir also operates on a strong balance sheet, which is currently debt-free and boasts a robust cash-on-hand balance of more than $2.3 billion to support continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Palantir即将发布的收益报告可能会推动该股走向与成熟科技公司类似的趋势。该公司在持续创新的基础上拥有充满希望的增长前景，并且由于强大的合同收入基础，对未来现金流具有高度可见性。Palantir还拥有强劲的资产负债表，目前无债务，并拥有超过23亿美元的强劲手头现金余额，以支持持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>While the impending rate hikes have put investors at the edge of their seats about potentially stalled growth and development in next-generation tech companies due to rising costs of capital in coming years, the fact that Palantir’s operations are already self-sufficient should not be overlooked. In the first nine months of 2021, Palantir generated more than $240 million in cash from operating activities alone, despite year-to-date net losses of $364 million. Much of the losses were driven by share-based compensation expenses, which will likely continue to put pressure on its profit margins in the near-term as the company prioritizes the retention of talent to support ongoing expansion of the business. However, these expenses are non-cash in nature, and when that is taken into account, Palantir is actually profitable on a cash-basis and have continued to demonstrate strength in generating significant free cash flows to fund its growth roadmap. This accordingly provides it with partial immunity against hemorrhaging valuation prospects due to rising costs of capital from the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管即将到来的加息让投资者对未来几年资本成本上升可能导致下一代科技公司增长和发展停滞感到紧张，但Palantir的运营已经实现自给自足的事实不应被忽视。2021年前9个月，Palantir仅从经营活动中就产生了超过2.4亿美元的现金，尽管年初至今净亏损为3.64亿美元。大部分亏损是由股权激励费用造成的，由于该公司优先考虑留住人才以支持业务的持续扩张，这可能会在短期内继续给其利润率带来压力。然而，这些费用本质上是非现金，考虑到这一点，Palantir实际上在现金基础上是盈利的，并且在产生大量自由现金流为其增长路线图提供资金方面继续表现出实力。因此，这使其能够部分免受因即将到来的加息导致资本成本上升而导致的估值前景大跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s near-term growth trajectory also remains intact. As of the third quarter period ended September 2021, Palantir’s total unrealized deal value grew by 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion with an average duration of at least four years. Palantir has continued to exhibit strength in both its commercial and government segments. Recent contract wins and extensions have been a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir’s software solutions, as well as accelerated adoption from both the private and public sectors as operations become increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. In addition to the new and renewed contracts during the last three months of 2021, which have been discussed in our most recent coverage, Palantir has rung into the new year with a notable partnership forged with Hyundai Heavy Industries. The $25 million multi-year deal is a symbol of Palantir’s growing presence across the West’s APAC allies, and represents an extension of Palantir’s success in growing its commercial segment over the past year. Under the arrangement, Hyundai Heavy will leverage Palantir’s commercial software, likely Foundry, to create tools for breaking down the siloed data fields across its affiliate groups, which range from shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, and facilitate better-integrated operations. The two companies intend to create a joint venture to commercialize the new tools built on Palantir’s platform, which will create greater exposure for Palantir’s technological capabilities to the global commercial sector, and further fortify the company’s growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的近期增长轨迹也保持不变。截至2021年9月的第三季度，Palantir的未实现交易总价值同比增长50%，达到36亿美元，平均持续时间至少为四年。Palantir在商业和政府领域继续展现实力。最近赢得的合同和延期证明了Palantir软件解决方案的有效性，以及随着运营日益数字化，私营和公共部门的采用加速，产生了大量需要集成、处理和分析的数据，以推动关键决策流程。除了我们最近的报道中讨论的2021年最后三个月的新合同和续签合同之外，Palantir还与现代重工建立了显着的合作伙伴关系，进入了新的一年。这笔价值2500万美元的多年期协议象征着Palantir在西方亚太地区盟友中不断增长的影响力，也代表着Palantir在过去一年中成功发展其商业领域的延伸。根据该安排，现代重工将利用Palantir的商业软件（可能是Foundry）来创建工具，用于打破其附属集团（从造船到工业机械流程）之间孤立的数据字段，并促进更好的集成运营。两家公司打算创建一家合资企业，将基于Palantir平台构建的新工具商业化，这将使Palantir的技术能力更多地接触到全球商业领域，并进一步巩固公司的增长前景。</blockquote></p><p><b>Long-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的长期考虑</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the longer-term, we foresee Palantir’s technologies to evolve from a novelty into a necessity. AI-driven analytical tools like Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry will remain critical functions across both the public and private sectors to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And Palantir is already in the works of pushing its software towards the mainstream by offering a wide range of solutions for organizations across both the private and public sectors to choose from on an as-needed basis.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我们预计Palantir的技术将从新奇事物发展成为必需品。Palantir的Gotham和Foundry等人工智能驱动的分析工具仍将是公共和私营部门的关键功能，以确保数据平台的无缝集成并改善日益数字化的世界中的决策。Palantir已经在努力将其软件推向主流，为私营和公共部门的组织提供广泛的解决方案供其根据需要进行选择。</blockquote></p><p>The introduction of “Foundry for Builders” in July is one of Palantir’s earliest strategies in opening up its offerings to the mass market. Foundry for Builders is offered under a subscription-based model and breaks down the traditional cost barriers that have hindered access to Palantir’s software solution for smaller commercial customers like Day One start-ups. The new offering enables Palantir to extend its Foundry capabilities to support all types of organizations, ranging from multinational corporations with complex data compilations to small- and medium-sized businesses with limited resources looking for a cost-effective data analytical tool. The strategy is expected to encourage mass market adoption of Palantir’s commercial segment offerings, and ensure further penetration into a total addressable market that is expected to grow from $400 billion today into $500 billion by 2025 and $1.6 trillion by the end of the decade. While the new offering is still in beta phase with availability offered to only a small cohort of start-ups, the positive reception received to date indicates significant potential for wider adoption once introduced to the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>7月份推出的“Foundry for Builders”是Palantir向大众市场开放产品的最早战略之一。Foundry for Builders以基于订阅的模式提供，打破了阻碍初创企业等小型商业客户访问Palantir软件解决方案的传统成本障碍。新产品使Palantir能够扩展其代工能力，以支持所有类型的组织，从拥有复杂数据汇编的跨国公司到资源有限、寻求经济高效的数据分析工具的中小型企业。该战略预计将鼓励大众市场采用Palantir的商业领域产品，并确保进一步渗透到潜在市场总额，预计到2025年将从目前的4000亿美元增长到5000亿美元，到本十年末将增长到1.6万亿美元。虽然新产品仍处于测试阶段，仅向一小部分初创企业提供，但迄今为止收到的积极反响表明，一旦引入更广泛的市场，就有更广泛采用的巨大潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The recent introduction of industry-specific modular solutions built on Foundry, such as “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Client for Crypto” (“AML / KYC for Crypto”), will also appeal to both government agencies and private businesses looking to tackle some of today’s most challenging problems. With increasing global calls for cutting pollution and combating climate change, Palantir’s Carbon Emissions Management tool can add value by helping its corporate clients integrate emissions data, such as daily pollution volumes across the supply chain and emissions reduction targets, with planned revenues and margins to determine the best trade-off based on their respective business plans and objectives. For instance, the Carbon Emissions Management tool can consolidate emissions data collected from disparate sources in real-time and simulate related impacts under different scenarios to drive the decision-making process on business changes required. The modular offering enables Palantir to capitalize on opportunities arising from growing ESG needs in the private sector, while also helping its clients better manage their emissions impacts and “develop a competitive edge to beat competition and win the market”.</p><p><blockquote>最近推出的基于Foundry的行业特定模块化解决方案，如“碳排放管理”和“反洗钱/了解您的加密客户”（“AML/KYC for Crypto”），也将吸引希望解决当今一些最具挑战性问题的政府机构和私营企业。随着减少污染和应对气候变化的全球评级不断增加，Palantir的碳排放管理工具可以通过帮助其企业客户将排放数据（例如整个供应链的每日污染量和减排目标）与计划收入和利润相结合来增加价值，以确定根据各自的业务计划和目标进行最佳权衡。例如，碳排放管理工具可以实时整合从不同来源收集的排放数据，并模拟不同情景下的相关影响，以推动所需业务变革的决策过程。模块化产品使Palantir能够利用私营部门不断增长的ESG需求所带来的机遇，同时还帮助其客户更好地管理其排放影响并“发展竞争优势以击败竞争并赢得市场”。</blockquote></p><p>TheAML/KYC for Crypto solution is also deployed at an opportune time. Securities regulators have made it a priority to rein in the fast-growing cryptocurrency market with new rules, while cryptocurrency exchanges look for solutions to ensure compliance with the changing regulatory landscape. The new AML/KYC for Crypto tool is built on Palantir’s years of expertise in helping both regulators and private financial institutions address AML/KYC compliance considerations, and can be deployed in a time- and cost-effective manner for both sides of the equation across.AML/KYC for Crypto enables a large variety of use-cases ranging from real-time compliance tracking across disparate sources for cryptocurrency exchanges, to potentially regulatory simulations for securities regulators. This makes Palantir well-positioned to capitalize on the rising crypto momentum in coming years – the global blockchain market is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by 2026, with proper management ofAML/KYC considerations encouraging adoption. And North America, Palantir’s key market, will maintain the largest share, underpinning robust demand for the new industry-specific solution in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>AML/KYC for Crypto解决方案也在适当的时候部署。证券监管机构已将通过新规则控制快速增长的加密货币市场作为优先事项，而加密货币交易所则在寻找解决方案，以确保遵守不断变化的监管环境。新的AML/KYC for Crypto工具建立在Palantir多年来帮助监管机构和私人金融机构解决AML/KYC合规性问题的专业知识之上，可以以省时且经济高效的方式为双方部署。AML/KYC for Crypto支持多种用例，从加密货币交易所不同来源的实时合规性跟踪，到证券监管机构的潜在监管模拟。这使得Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用未来几年不断增长的加密货币势头——到2026年，全球区块链市场预计将增长到670亿美元的机会，适当管理反洗钱/KYC考虑因素将鼓励采用。Palantir的主要市场北美将保持最大份额，支撑未来几年对新的行业特定解决方案的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is also making steady progress towards its ultimate goal of becoming “the U.S. government’s central operating system”. In addition to Palantir’s continued push for its software solutions to be implemented across government agencies ranging from defense to healthcare, the public sector has also become increasingly receptive of reliance on technology and innovation. While the $778 billion annual defense spending budget authorized by the Senate in December remains flat compared to the prior year’s after adjusting for inflation, funding allocated towards R&D and procurement of emerging technologies like AI systems have increased by more than $3 billion. The Pentagon has also welcomed the development and utilization of innovative technologies in defense and combat in recent years, as they work on breaking the high barriers of entry that the giant defense contractors have historically built. In 2020, the agency allocated $1.5 billion in direct funding to more than 1,600 software-as-a-service start-ups, and set aside a number of defense contracts valued at up to $3 million each for early-stage software providers. Frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. have also indicated technology as one of the top three items that can “help reduce their stress and become more effective”. Specifically, tools that can help “automate tasks, provide remote assistance and help communicate with colleagues” are seen as the most helpful. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. government is coming Palantir’s way, underpinning additional multi-year growth in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir也在朝着成为“美国政府中央操作系统”的最终目标稳步推进。除了Palantir继续推动其软件解决方案在从国防到医疗保健的政府机构中实施之外，公共部门也越来越接受对技术和创新的依赖。虽然参议院12月批准的7780亿美元年度国防开支预算在调整通货膨胀后与上一年持平，但分配给研发和采购人工智能系统等新兴技术的资金增加了超过30亿美元。五角大楼近年来也对国防和作战领域创新技术的开发和利用表示欢迎，因为他们致力于打破大型国防承包商历史上建立的高进入壁垒。2020年，该机构向1600多家软件即服务初创企业分配了15亿美元的直接资金，并为早期软件提供商预留了多份每份价值高达300万美元的国防合同。美国的一线医护人员也表示，技术是可以“帮助减轻他们的压力并变得更有效”的三大项目之一。具体来说，能够帮助“自动化任务、提供远程协助和帮助与同事沟通”的工具被视为最有帮助。这标志着美国政府将为Palantir带来更大的市场机会，支撑Palantir在可预见的未来进一步实现多年增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Where Might PLTR Stock be Headed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票可能走向何方？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d650f70bbfb8bc052e908d417257b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR 12-Month Price Target</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR 12个月价格目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Considering Palantir’s growth outlook remains intact for both the near- and longer-term despite mounting macro headwinds, we are maintaining our 12-month price target for the stock at $25.45. Consistent with our previous analysis on potentially better-than-expected FY 2021 financial performance, we believe the upcoming earnings call will be a catalyst to jumpstarting the stock from its recent declines and bolster investors’ confidence on Palantir’s valuation prospects ahead of the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到尽管宏观阻力不断加大，Palantir的近期和长期增长前景仍然完好无损，我们将该股12个月目标价维持在25.45美元。与我们之前对2021财年财务业绩可能好于预期的分析一致，我们认为即将到来的盈利看涨期权将成为推动该股摆脱近期下跌的催化剂，并在即将到来的加息之前增强投资者对Palantir估值前景的信心。</blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c624a7c885aef549ec989f3dd322797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR估值分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8d5aad1d10fe2ae2a8c1f5a8c0be9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Sensitivity Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR敏感性分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>iii. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c204cfbe554afece4b31e797ea06a30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Base Case Financial Forecast</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR基本案例财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p>While Palantir’s mounting share-based compensation balance has been a sign of deterrence for many investors due to added pressure to profit margins and share dilution risks in the long-run, we believe the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects ahead will be more than enough to offset related impacts. Recall from our discussion in earlier sections that share-based compensation expenses are non-cash in nature, thus from a fundamental perspective, Palantir’s free cash flows continue to reflect the underlying business’ high-growth nature. In short, the company continues to be increasingly self-sufficient with a robust cash runway to fund growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Palantir不断增加的股权薪酬余额对许多投资者来说是一个威慑迹象，因为从长远来看，利润率压力增加和股票稀释风险增加，但我们相信该公司强劲的基本面和未来的增长前景将足以抵消相关影响。回想一下我们在前面章节中的讨论，股权激励费用本质上是非现金，因此从基本面角度来看，Palantir的自由现金流继续反映了基础业务的高增长性质。简而言之，该公司继续日益自给自足，拥有强劲的现金跑道，为未来几年的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p>And from a valuation perspective, the share-based compensation issued today cannot be exercised or sold until they vest, which could still be a few years out. Although many senior executives, including CEO Alex Karp, had offloaded a significant volume of shares last year causing stock price pressures, it was part of a long-term compensation-realization scheme, in which share-based compensation issued at the earlier days of Palantir were nearing expiry in December. As such, we are not expecting similar high-volume sell-offs within the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，今天发行的股权激励在归属之前不能行使或出售，而这可能还需要几年的时间。尽管包括首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普(Alex Karp)在内的许多高管去年抛售了大量股票，导致股价承压，但这是长期薪酬实现计划的一部分，其中Palantir早期发行的股权薪酬即将于12月到期。因此，我们预计在可预见的未来不会出现类似的大量抛售。</blockquote></p><p>As we mentioned on prior earnings calls, Karp was granted options a decade ago which we set to expire on December 3rd of this year. Specifically, as a report equity yields 60.9 million options that were set to expire this December. The taxes from the exercise of the options are more than $0.5 billion. And so we've been selling shares along the way to generate funds to pay those taxes. Of the 16.9 million expiring options, he has now exercised 94% of the total. Of the remaining 6%, roughly half or 1.9 million of them will be sold by the expiration date, the other half exercised and as a result, all the near-term expiring options will be exercised.Source:Q3 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptThis is further corroborated by the fact that insider selling activity has since calmed according to recent SEC filings, with only one instance earlier this year by Alex Moore, a Palantir veteran. Similar to other insider share-selling activities observed in the past year, the offloaded shares were done in compliance with Rule 10b5-1, meaning it had been planned in advance and not based on any immediate insider information on the company’s performance. From a fundamental standpoint, the latest share-selling activity also does not imply any adverse impacts to the company’s growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在之前的收益评级上提到的，卡普十年前获得了期权，我们将其设定为今年12月3日到期。具体来说，根据一份报告，股票产生了6090万份将于今年12月到期的期权。行使期权产生的税收超过5亿美元。因此，我们一直在出售股票以筹集资金来支付这些税款。在1690万份即将到期的期权中，他现已行使了总数的94%。在剩下的6%中，大约一半或190万份将在到期日之前出售，另一半将被行使，因此，所有近期到期的期权都将被行使。资料来源：2021年第三季度收益看涨期权成绩单根据最近向SEC提交的文件，内幕抛售活动此后已经平静下来，Palantir资深人士Alex Moore今年早些时候仅发生过一次。与去年观察到的其他内幕股票出售活动类似，出售的股票是按照规则10b5-1进行的，这意味着这是提前计划的，而不是基于任何有关公司业绩的即时内幕信息。从基本面来看，最新的股票出售活动也并不意味着对公司的增长前景产生任何不利影响。</blockquote></p><p>Going forward, we expect share dilutions related to share-based compensation to occur at a much more mild rate, similar to other tech stocks that have very much relied on the non-cash compensation strategy to acquire top talent needed to facilitate growth. And robust fundamental growth in years ahead is expected to compensate for said dilution impacts. Palantir is expected to start realizing nominal profits of $141.1 million by 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by the end of the decade based on our current base case forecast, which is also consistent with anticipated long-term top-line growth that management has guided. The returns are expected to far exceed the anticipated rate of share dilution at 4% per year resulting from the share-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们预计与股权激励相关的股权稀释将以温和得多的速度发生，类似于其他严重依赖非现金薪酬策略来获取促进增长所需的顶尖人才的科技股。未来几年强劲的基本面增长预计将弥补上述稀释影响。Palantir预计到2025年将开始实现1.411亿美元的名义利润，根据我们当前的基本情况预测，到本十年末将进一步增长至15亿美元，这也与管理层预期的长期营收增长一致。指导。预计回报将远远超过以股份为基础的薪酬计划导致的每年4%的预期股份稀释率。</blockquote></p><p>We also expect share-based compensation expenses to scale back and represent a smaller portion of annual revenues in coming years. Strategically, Palantir’s extension of generous share-based compensation packages for its employees will continue to provide them with an incentive to remain committed to the company’s growth. But to ensure the incentive is useful, it is unlikely that Palantir will do it at the expense of over-diluting the company’s share price over the longer-term. While the current share-based compensation expenses represent a large portion of annual revenues, we expect similar spending will scale back in coming years as the company continues to grow to ensure a balance and alignment of interest between employees and shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>我们还预计，未来几年，以股份为基础的薪酬支出将缩减，占年收入的比例将减少。从战略上讲，Palantir为员工提供慷慨的股权激励方案将继续为他们提供激励，让他们继续致力于公司的发展。但为了确保激励措施有用，Palantir不太可能以长期过度稀释公司股价为代价。虽然目前的股权激励支出占年收入的很大一部分，但我们预计，随着公司的不断发展，类似的支出将在未来几年缩减，以确保员工和股东之间的利益平衡和一致。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir remains on a robust growth trajectory as global digitization trends in coming years continue to underpin demand for data management and analytics software like Foundry and Gotham. While government contracts, especially those associated with defense, remain Palantir’s priority, the company has made significant progress in strategically capitalizing on growth opportunities from the commercial segment. The resulting fundamental performance is also expected to compensate for any potential share-sale dilutions related to the share-based compensation program over the longer-term. With the stock now trading at a discount of more than 60% from its peak in early 2021 with no material changes to its growth outlook, we consider the recent pullback a reasonable entry point with potential upside momentum to resume going into the upcoming earnings season and as mounting macro headwinds abate.</p><p><blockquote>随着未来几年全球数字化趋势继续支撑对Foundry和Gotham等数据管理和分析软件的需求，Palantir仍处于强劲的增长轨道。虽然政府合同，尤其是与国防相关的合同，仍然是Palantir的优先事项，但该公司在战略性地利用商业领域的增长机会方面取得了重大进展。由此产生的基本业绩预计还将补偿与长期股权激励计划相关的任何潜在股份出售稀释。由于该股目前的交易价格较2021年初的峰值折价超过60%，且其增长前景没有重大变化，我们认为最近的回调是一个合理的切入点，在即将到来的财报季和随着不断增加的宏观阻力减弱。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?<blockquote>Palantir股票按当前估值是买入还是卖出？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell At Its Current Valuation?<blockquote>Palantir股票按当前估值是买入还是卖出？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-24 14:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.</li><li>Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, especially those in emerging technologies, as pandemic-era policy support dwindles with tightening monetary policy on the horizon.</li><li>Yet, there have been no material changes to the bullish thesis supporting Palantir's growth trajectory - the company continues to be well-positioned for growth opportunities arising from digitization trends.</li><li>Paired with its debt-free balance sheet, robust cash-on-hand balance, continued strength in generating cash from operations, and high-visibility revenues, Palantir makes a favourable investment ahead of the upcoming rate hikes with promising upside realizable over both the near and longer term.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fa252b01d9bd84e39574343c9fb409\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于宏观阻力不断加大，Palantir的股价较大约一年前创下的创纪录价格下跌了60%以上。</li><li>随着货币政策收紧，大流行时期的政策支持减少，投资者一直在远离高估值成长型股票，尤其是新兴科技股。</li><li>然而，支持Palantir增长轨迹的看涨论点并没有发生重大变化——该公司继续为数字化趋势带来的增长机会做好准备。</li><li>再加上其无债务资产负债表、强劲的手头现金余额、运营现金产生的持续实力以及高知名度的收入，Palantir在即将到来的加息之前进行了有利的投资，近期和长期都有望实现上行空间。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>杂项摄影/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) continues to be caught in the broader market rout these days, with the stock’s value declining more than 12% since the year opened. The current macro backdrop has not made a favourable environment for high-growth segment stocks. The recent release of meeting minutes from the FOMC’s policy meeting in December, paired with increasing consumer price pressures at record-setting levels have triggered hawkish sentiments supporting faster and sooner rate hikes beginning as early as March to curb runaway inflation. The hastened withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus, coupled with the impending return of rate hikes have caused investors to turn risk averse on high-growth, high-valuation stocks. This is largely due to uncertainties over how the upcoming rate hikes might erode the value of future gains or stall business growth due to rising costs of capital.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）最近继续陷入大盘暴跌，自年初以来该股价值下跌了12%以上。当前的宏观背景并未为高增长板块股票创造有利环境。最近公布的FOMC 12月政策会议纪要，加上创纪录水平的消费者价格压力不断增加，引发了鹰派情绪，支持最早从3月份开始更快、更快地加息，以遏制失控的通胀。大流行时期刺激措施的加速退出，加上加息即将回归，导致投资者转向规避高增长、高估值股票的风险。这主要是由于即将到来的加息可能如何侵蚀未来收益的价值或因资本成本上升而阻碍业务增长的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p>While the imminent tightening of monetary policy has stoked fear amongst equity investors as they mull on how to price the upcoming rate hike impacts into asset valuations, we believe Palantir will emerge favourably in both the near- and long-term. On one hand, the inflation-resistant nature of Palantir’s business, paired with its high-growth prospects and ability to generate robust cash flows from operations should make it an attractive stock within the near-term amidst mounting macro pressures. Meanwhile, in the longer term, Palantir’s technology will continue to play a critical role in supporting key digital trends like AI, which will soon become a necessity instead of novelty in the data-driven era. On these considerations, we believe Palantir's stock will soon resume its upwardmomentum, with the upcoming earnings report being a potential catalyst to jumpstart its performance.</p><p><blockquote>尽管货币政策即将收紧引发了股票投资者的担忧，因为他们正在考虑如何将即将到来的加息影响纳入资产估值，但我们相信Palantir在近期和长期都将表现良好。一方面，Palantir业务的抗通胀性质，加上其高增长前景和从运营中产生强劲现金流的能力，应该使其在宏观压力不断加大的情况下成为短期内有吸引力的股票。与此同时，从长远来看，Palantir的技术将继续在支持人工智能等关键数字趋势方面发挥关键作用，人工智能很快将成为数据驱动时代的必需品，而不是新奇事物。基于这些考虑，我们相信Palantir的股价将很快恢复上涨势头，即将发布的收益报告将成为提振其业绩的潜在催化剂。</blockquote></p><p><b>Near-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的近期考虑</b></blockquote></p><p>In line with the broader market, Palantir's stock rallied on the first trading session of the year, with intraday gains of as much as 4%. However, the momentum was short-lived and has since been overtaken by an extended market rout triggered by increasingly hawkish narratives from Fed representatives. The rising urgency for faster and sooner rate hikes to combat the hottest inflation in close to four decades has sent market benchmarks like the S&P 500 on a rundown of close to 5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged by more than 8% since the year opened due to souring sentiment for high-growth, high-valuation stocks that have largely outperformed in the past 20 months. Instead, mature tech companies likeDell(NYSE:DELL) and HP(NYSE:HPQ)have been resilient due to their low debt, high cash flow, and stable-growth businesses, which provides a strong hedge against the impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>与大盘一致，Palantir股价在今年第一个交易日上涨，盘中涨幅高达4%。然而，这种势头是短暂的，此后被美联储代表日益鹰派的言论引发的长期市场暴跌所取代。越来越迫切需要更快、更快地加息以应对近四十年来最严重的通胀，导致标普500等市场基准下跌近5%。与此同时，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数自年初以来暴跌超过8%，原因是对过去20个月表现基本优于大盘的高增长、高估值股票的情绪恶化。相反，戴尔（纽约证券交易所股票代码：DELL）和惠普（纽约证券交易所股票代码：HPQ）等成熟科技公司由于其低债务、高现金流和稳定增长的业务而具有弹性，这为即将到来的加息提供了强有力的对冲。</blockquote></p><p>However, Palantir’s upcoming earnings report will likely jumpstart the stock toward a similar trend as the mature tech companies. The company boasts a promising growth outlook built on continued innovation, with high visibility into future cash flows thanks to a robust contracted revenue base. Palantir also operates on a strong balance sheet, which is currently debt-free and boasts a robust cash-on-hand balance of more than $2.3 billion to support continued growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Palantir即将发布的收益报告可能会推动该股走向与成熟科技公司类似的趋势。该公司在持续创新的基础上拥有充满希望的增长前景，并且由于强大的合同收入基础，对未来现金流具有高度可见性。Palantir还拥有强劲的资产负债表，目前无债务，并拥有超过23亿美元的强劲手头现金余额，以支持持续增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>While the impending rate hikes have put investors at the edge of their seats about potentially stalled growth and development in next-generation tech companies due to rising costs of capital in coming years, the fact that Palantir’s operations are already self-sufficient should not be overlooked. In the first nine months of 2021, Palantir generated more than $240 million in cash from operating activities alone, despite year-to-date net losses of $364 million. Much of the losses were driven by share-based compensation expenses, which will likely continue to put pressure on its profit margins in the near-term as the company prioritizes the retention of talent to support ongoing expansion of the business. However, these expenses are non-cash in nature, and when that is taken into account, Palantir is actually profitable on a cash-basis and have continued to demonstrate strength in generating significant free cash flows to fund its growth roadmap. This accordingly provides it with partial immunity against hemorrhaging valuation prospects due to rising costs of capital from the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管即将到来的加息让投资者对未来几年资本成本上升可能导致下一代科技公司增长和发展停滞感到紧张，但Palantir的运营已经实现自给自足的事实不应被忽视。2021年前9个月，Palantir仅从经营活动中就产生了超过2.4亿美元的现金，尽管年初至今净亏损为3.64亿美元。大部分亏损是由股权激励费用造成的，由于该公司优先考虑留住人才以支持业务的持续扩张，这可能会在短期内继续给其利润率带来压力。然而，这些费用本质上是非现金，考虑到这一点，Palantir实际上在现金基础上是盈利的，并且在产生大量自由现金流为其增长路线图提供资金方面继续表现出实力。因此，这使其能够部分免受因即将到来的加息导致资本成本上升而导致的估值前景大跌的影响。</blockquote></p><p>The company’s near-term growth trajectory also remains intact. As of the third quarter period ended September 2021, Palantir’s total unrealized deal value grew by 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion with an average duration of at least four years. Palantir has continued to exhibit strength in both its commercial and government segments. Recent contract wins and extensions have been a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir’s software solutions, as well as accelerated adoption from both the private and public sectors as operations become increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. In addition to the new and renewed contracts during the last three months of 2021, which have been discussed in our most recent coverage, Palantir has rung into the new year with a notable partnership forged with Hyundai Heavy Industries. The $25 million multi-year deal is a symbol of Palantir’s growing presence across the West’s APAC allies, and represents an extension of Palantir’s success in growing its commercial segment over the past year. Under the arrangement, Hyundai Heavy will leverage Palantir’s commercial software, likely Foundry, to create tools for breaking down the siloed data fields across its affiliate groups, which range from shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, and facilitate better-integrated operations. The two companies intend to create a joint venture to commercialize the new tools built on Palantir’s platform, which will create greater exposure for Palantir’s technological capabilities to the global commercial sector, and further fortify the company’s growth prospects.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的近期增长轨迹也保持不变。截至2021年9月的第三季度，Palantir的未实现交易总价值同比增长50%，达到36亿美元，平均持续时间至少为四年。Palantir在商业和政府领域继续展现实力。最近赢得的合同和延期证明了Palantir软件解决方案的有效性，以及随着运营日益数字化，私营和公共部门的采用加速，产生了大量需要集成、处理和分析的数据，以推动关键决策流程。除了我们最近的报道中讨论的2021年最后三个月的新合同和续签合同之外，Palantir还与现代重工建立了显着的合作伙伴关系，进入了新的一年。这笔价值2500万美元的多年期协议象征着Palantir在西方亚太地区盟友中不断增长的影响力，也代表着Palantir在过去一年中成功发展其商业领域的延伸。根据该安排，现代重工将利用Palantir的商业软件（可能是Foundry）来创建工具，用于打破其附属集团（从造船到工业机械流程）之间孤立的数据字段，并促进更好的集成运营。两家公司打算创建一家合资企业，将基于Palantir平台构建的新工具商业化，这将使Palantir的技术能力更多地接触到全球商业领域，并进一步巩固公司的增长前景。</blockquote></p><p><b>Long-Term Considerations for Palantir</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的长期考虑</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the longer-term, we foresee Palantir’s technologies to evolve from a novelty into a necessity. AI-driven analytical tools like Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry will remain critical functions across both the public and private sectors to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And Palantir is already in the works of pushing its software towards the mainstream by offering a wide range of solutions for organizations across both the private and public sectors to choose from on an as-needed basis.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，我们预计Palantir的技术将从新奇事物发展成为必需品。Palantir的Gotham和Foundry等人工智能驱动的分析工具仍将是公共和私营部门的关键功能，以确保数据平台的无缝集成并改善日益数字化的世界中的决策。Palantir已经在努力将其软件推向主流，为私营和公共部门的组织提供广泛的解决方案供其根据需要进行选择。</blockquote></p><p>The introduction of “Foundry for Builders” in July is one of Palantir’s earliest strategies in opening up its offerings to the mass market. Foundry for Builders is offered under a subscription-based model and breaks down the traditional cost barriers that have hindered access to Palantir’s software solution for smaller commercial customers like Day One start-ups. The new offering enables Palantir to extend its Foundry capabilities to support all types of organizations, ranging from multinational corporations with complex data compilations to small- and medium-sized businesses with limited resources looking for a cost-effective data analytical tool. The strategy is expected to encourage mass market adoption of Palantir’s commercial segment offerings, and ensure further penetration into a total addressable market that is expected to grow from $400 billion today into $500 billion by 2025 and $1.6 trillion by the end of the decade. While the new offering is still in beta phase with availability offered to only a small cohort of start-ups, the positive reception received to date indicates significant potential for wider adoption once introduced to the broader market.</p><p><blockquote>7月份推出的“Foundry for Builders”是Palantir向大众市场开放产品的最早战略之一。Foundry for Builders以基于订阅的模式提供，打破了阻碍初创企业等小型商业客户访问Palantir软件解决方案的传统成本障碍。新产品使Palantir能够扩展其代工能力，以支持所有类型的组织，从拥有复杂数据汇编的跨国公司到资源有限、寻求经济高效的数据分析工具的中小型企业。该战略预计将鼓励大众市场采用Palantir的商业领域产品，并确保进一步渗透到潜在市场总额，预计到2025年将从目前的4000亿美元增长到5000亿美元，到本十年末将增长到1.6万亿美元。虽然新产品仍处于测试阶段，仅向一小部分初创企业提供，但迄今为止收到的积极反响表明，一旦引入更广泛的市场，就有更广泛采用的巨大潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The recent introduction of industry-specific modular solutions built on Foundry, such as “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Client for Crypto” (“AML / KYC for Crypto”), will also appeal to both government agencies and private businesses looking to tackle some of today’s most challenging problems. With increasing global calls for cutting pollution and combating climate change, Palantir’s Carbon Emissions Management tool can add value by helping its corporate clients integrate emissions data, such as daily pollution volumes across the supply chain and emissions reduction targets, with planned revenues and margins to determine the best trade-off based on their respective business plans and objectives. For instance, the Carbon Emissions Management tool can consolidate emissions data collected from disparate sources in real-time and simulate related impacts under different scenarios to drive the decision-making process on business changes required. The modular offering enables Palantir to capitalize on opportunities arising from growing ESG needs in the private sector, while also helping its clients better manage their emissions impacts and “develop a competitive edge to beat competition and win the market”.</p><p><blockquote>最近推出的基于Foundry的行业特定模块化解决方案，如“碳排放管理”和“反洗钱/了解您的加密客户”（“AML/KYC for Crypto”），也将吸引希望解决当今一些最具挑战性问题的政府机构和私营企业。随着减少污染和应对气候变化的全球评级不断增加，Palantir的碳排放管理工具可以通过帮助其企业客户将排放数据（例如整个供应链的每日污染量和减排目标）与计划收入和利润相结合来增加价值，以确定根据各自的业务计划和目标进行最佳权衡。例如，碳排放管理工具可以实时整合从不同来源收集的排放数据，并模拟不同情景下的相关影响，以推动所需业务变革的决策过程。模块化产品使Palantir能够利用私营部门不断增长的ESG需求所带来的机遇，同时还帮助其客户更好地管理其排放影响并“发展竞争优势以击败竞争并赢得市场”。</blockquote></p><p>TheAML/KYC for Crypto solution is also deployed at an opportune time. Securities regulators have made it a priority to rein in the fast-growing cryptocurrency market with new rules, while cryptocurrency exchanges look for solutions to ensure compliance with the changing regulatory landscape. The new AML/KYC for Crypto tool is built on Palantir’s years of expertise in helping both regulators and private financial institutions address AML/KYC compliance considerations, and can be deployed in a time- and cost-effective manner for both sides of the equation across.AML/KYC for Crypto enables a large variety of use-cases ranging from real-time compliance tracking across disparate sources for cryptocurrency exchanges, to potentially regulatory simulations for securities regulators. This makes Palantir well-positioned to capitalize on the rising crypto momentum in coming years – the global blockchain market is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by 2026, with proper management ofAML/KYC considerations encouraging adoption. And North America, Palantir’s key market, will maintain the largest share, underpinning robust demand for the new industry-specific solution in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>AML/KYC for Crypto解决方案也在适当的时候部署。证券监管机构已将通过新规则控制快速增长的加密货币市场作为优先事项，而加密货币交易所则在寻找解决方案，以确保遵守不断变化的监管环境。新的AML/KYC for Crypto工具建立在Palantir多年来帮助监管机构和私人金融机构解决AML/KYC合规性问题的专业知识之上，可以以省时且经济高效的方式为双方部署。AML/KYC for Crypto支持多种用例，从加密货币交易所不同来源的实时合规性跟踪，到证券监管机构的潜在监管模拟。这使得Palantir处于有利地位，可以利用未来几年不断增长的加密货币势头——到2026年，全球区块链市场预计将增长到670亿美元的机会，适当管理反洗钱/KYC考虑因素将鼓励采用。Palantir的主要市场北美将保持最大份额，支撑未来几年对新的行业特定解决方案的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p>Palantir is also making steady progress towards its ultimate goal of becoming “the U.S. government’s central operating system”. In addition to Palantir’s continued push for its software solutions to be implemented across government agencies ranging from defense to healthcare, the public sector has also become increasingly receptive of reliance on technology and innovation. While the $778 billion annual defense spending budget authorized by the Senate in December remains flat compared to the prior year’s after adjusting for inflation, funding allocated towards R&D and procurement of emerging technologies like AI systems have increased by more than $3 billion. The Pentagon has also welcomed the development and utilization of innovative technologies in defense and combat in recent years, as they work on breaking the high barriers of entry that the giant defense contractors have historically built. In 2020, the agency allocated $1.5 billion in direct funding to more than 1,600 software-as-a-service start-ups, and set aside a number of defense contracts valued at up to $3 million each for early-stage software providers. Frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. have also indicated technology as one of the top three items that can “help reduce their stress and become more effective”. Specifically, tools that can help “automate tasks, provide remote assistance and help communicate with colleagues” are seen as the most helpful. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. government is coming Palantir’s way, underpinning additional multi-year growth in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir也在朝着成为“美国政府中央操作系统”的最终目标稳步推进。除了Palantir继续推动其软件解决方案在从国防到医疗保健的政府机构中实施之外，公共部门也越来越接受对技术和创新的依赖。虽然参议院12月批准的7780亿美元年度国防开支预算在调整通货膨胀后与上一年持平，但分配给研发和采购人工智能系统等新兴技术的资金增加了超过30亿美元。五角大楼近年来也对国防和作战领域创新技术的开发和利用表示欢迎，因为他们致力于打破大型国防承包商历史上建立的高进入壁垒。2020年，该机构向1600多家软件即服务初创企业分配了15亿美元的直接资金，并为早期软件提供商预留了多份每份价值高达300万美元的国防合同。美国的一线医护人员也表示，技术是可以“帮助减轻他们的压力并变得更有效”的三大项目之一。具体来说，能够帮助“自动化任务、提供远程协助和帮助与同事沟通”的工具被视为最有帮助。这标志着美国政府将为Palantir带来更大的市场机会，支撑Palantir在可预见的未来进一步实现多年增长。</blockquote></p><p><b>Where Might PLTR Stock be Headed?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票可能走向何方？</b></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d650f70bbfb8bc052e908d417257b5a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR 12-Month Price Target</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR 12个月价格目标</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Considering Palantir’s growth outlook remains intact for both the near- and longer-term despite mounting macro headwinds, we are maintaining our 12-month price target for the stock at $25.45. Consistent with our previous analysis on potentially better-than-expected FY 2021 financial performance, we believe the upcoming earnings call will be a catalyst to jumpstarting the stock from its recent declines and bolster investors’ confidence on Palantir’s valuation prospects ahead of the upcoming rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到尽管宏观阻力不断加大，Palantir的近期和长期增长前景仍然完好无损，我们将该股12个月目标价维持在25.45美元。与我们之前对2021财年财务业绩可能好于预期的分析一致，我们认为即将到来的盈利看涨期权将成为推动该股摆脱近期下跌的催化剂，并在即将到来的加息之前增强投资者对Palantir估值前景的信心。</blockquote></p><p><i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c624a7c885aef549ec989f3dd322797\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Valuation Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR估值分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca8d5aad1d10fe2ae2a8c1f5a8c0be9d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Sensitivity Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR敏感性分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p><i>iii. Base Case Financial Forecast:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>三、基本案例财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c204cfbe554afece4b31e797ea06a30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"169\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>PLTR Base Case Financial Forecast</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PLTR基本案例财务预测</span></p></blockquote></p><p>While Palantir’s mounting share-based compensation balance has been a sign of deterrence for many investors due to added pressure to profit margins and share dilution risks in the long-run, we believe the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects ahead will be more than enough to offset related impacts. Recall from our discussion in earlier sections that share-based compensation expenses are non-cash in nature, thus from a fundamental perspective, Palantir’s free cash flows continue to reflect the underlying business’ high-growth nature. In short, the company continues to be increasingly self-sufficient with a robust cash runway to fund growth in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Palantir不断增加的股权薪酬余额对许多投资者来说是一个威慑迹象，因为从长远来看，利润率压力增加和股票稀释风险增加，但我们相信该公司强劲的基本面和未来的增长前景将足以抵消相关影响。回想一下我们在前面章节中的讨论，股权激励费用本质上是非现金，因此从基本面角度来看，Palantir的自由现金流继续反映了基础业务的高增长性质。简而言之，该公司继续日益自给自足，拥有强劲的现金跑道，为未来几年的增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p>And from a valuation perspective, the share-based compensation issued today cannot be exercised or sold until they vest, which could still be a few years out. Although many senior executives, including CEO Alex Karp, had offloaded a significant volume of shares last year causing stock price pressures, it was part of a long-term compensation-realization scheme, in which share-based compensation issued at the earlier days of Palantir were nearing expiry in December. As such, we are not expecting similar high-volume sell-offs within the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从估值的角度来看，今天发行的股权激励在归属之前不能行使或出售，而这可能还需要几年的时间。尽管包括首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普(Alex Karp)在内的许多高管去年抛售了大量股票，导致股价承压，但这是长期薪酬实现计划的一部分，其中Palantir早期发行的股权薪酬即将于12月到期。因此，我们预计在可预见的未来不会出现类似的大量抛售。</blockquote></p><p>As we mentioned on prior earnings calls, Karp was granted options a decade ago which we set to expire on December 3rd of this year. Specifically, as a report equity yields 60.9 million options that were set to expire this December. The taxes from the exercise of the options are more than $0.5 billion. And so we've been selling shares along the way to generate funds to pay those taxes. Of the 16.9 million expiring options, he has now exercised 94% of the total. Of the remaining 6%, roughly half or 1.9 million of them will be sold by the expiration date, the other half exercised and as a result, all the near-term expiring options will be exercised.Source:Q3 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptThis is further corroborated by the fact that insider selling activity has since calmed according to recent SEC filings, with only one instance earlier this year by Alex Moore, a Palantir veteran. Similar to other insider share-selling activities observed in the past year, the offloaded shares were done in compliance with Rule 10b5-1, meaning it had been planned in advance and not based on any immediate insider information on the company’s performance. From a fundamental standpoint, the latest share-selling activity also does not imply any adverse impacts to the company’s growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在之前的收益评级上提到的，卡普十年前获得了期权，我们将其设定为今年12月3日到期。具体来说，根据一份报告，股票产生了6090万份将于今年12月到期的期权。行使期权产生的税收超过5亿美元。因此，我们一直在出售股票以筹集资金来支付这些税款。在1690万份即将到期的期权中，他现已行使了总数的94%。在剩下的6%中，大约一半或190万份将在到期日之前出售，另一半将被行使，因此，所有近期到期的期权都将被行使。资料来源：2021年第三季度收益看涨期权成绩单根据最近向SEC提交的文件，内幕抛售活动此后已经平静下来，Palantir资深人士Alex Moore今年早些时候仅发生过一次。与去年观察到的其他内幕股票出售活动类似，出售的股票是按照规则10b5-1进行的，这意味着这是提前计划的，而不是基于任何有关公司业绩的即时内幕信息。从基本面来看，最新的股票出售活动也并不意味着对公司的增长前景产生任何不利影响。</blockquote></p><p>Going forward, we expect share dilutions related to share-based compensation to occur at a much more mild rate, similar to other tech stocks that have very much relied on the non-cash compensation strategy to acquire top talent needed to facilitate growth. And robust fundamental growth in years ahead is expected to compensate for said dilution impacts. Palantir is expected to start realizing nominal profits of $141.1 million by 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by the end of the decade based on our current base case forecast, which is also consistent with anticipated long-term top-line growth that management has guided. The returns are expected to far exceed the anticipated rate of share dilution at 4% per year resulting from the share-based compensation program.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们预计与股权激励相关的股权稀释将以温和得多的速度发生，类似于其他严重依赖非现金薪酬策略来获取促进增长所需的顶尖人才的科技股。未来几年强劲的基本面增长预计将弥补上述稀释影响。Palantir预计到2025年将开始实现1.411亿美元的名义利润，根据我们当前的基本情况预测，到本十年末将进一步增长至15亿美元，这也与管理层预期的长期营收增长一致。指导。预计回报将远远超过以股份为基础的薪酬计划导致的每年4%的预期股份稀释率。</blockquote></p><p>We also expect share-based compensation expenses to scale back and represent a smaller portion of annual revenues in coming years. Strategically, Palantir’s extension of generous share-based compensation packages for its employees will continue to provide them with an incentive to remain committed to the company’s growth. But to ensure the incentive is useful, it is unlikely that Palantir will do it at the expense of over-diluting the company’s share price over the longer-term. While the current share-based compensation expenses represent a large portion of annual revenues, we expect similar spending will scale back in coming years as the company continues to grow to ensure a balance and alignment of interest between employees and shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>我们还预计，未来几年，以股份为基础的薪酬支出将缩减，占年收入的比例将减少。从战略上讲，Palantir为员工提供慷慨的股权激励方案将继续为他们提供激励，让他们继续致力于公司的发展。但为了确保激励措施有用，Palantir不太可能以长期过度稀释公司股价为代价。虽然目前的股权激励支出占年收入的很大一部分，但我们预计，随着公司的不断发展，类似的支出将在未来几年缩减，以确保员工和股东之间的利益平衡和一致。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir remains on a robust growth trajectory as global digitization trends in coming years continue to underpin demand for data management and analytics software like Foundry and Gotham. While government contracts, especially those associated with defense, remain Palantir’s priority, the company has made significant progress in strategically capitalizing on growth opportunities from the commercial segment. The resulting fundamental performance is also expected to compensate for any potential share-sale dilutions related to the share-based compensation program over the longer-term. With the stock now trading at a discount of more than 60% from its peak in early 2021 with no material changes to its growth outlook, we consider the recent pullback a reasonable entry point with potential upside momentum to resume going into the upcoming earnings season and as mounting macro headwinds abate.</p><p><blockquote>随着未来几年全球数字化趋势继续支撑对Foundry和Gotham等数据管理和分析软件的需求，Palantir仍处于强劲的增长轨道。虽然政府合同，尤其是与国防相关的合同，仍然是Palantir的优先事项，但该公司在战略性地利用商业领域的增长机会方面取得了重大进展。由此产生的基本业绩预计还将补偿与长期股权激励计划相关的任何潜在股份出售稀释。由于该股目前的交易价格较2021年初的峰值折价超过60%，且其增长前景没有重大变化，我们认为最近的回调是一个合理的切入点，在即将到来的财报季和随着不断增加的宏观阻力减弱。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480629-palantir-stock-buy-sell-current-valuation\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480629-palantir-stock-buy-sell-current-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119030155","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's stock has declined by more than 60% from its record price set about a year ago due to mounting macro headwinds.Investors have been migrating away from high-valuation growth stocks, especially those in emerging technologies, as pandemic-era policy support dwindles with tightening monetary policy on the horizon.Yet, there have been no material changes to the bullish thesis supporting Palantir's growth trajectory - the company continues to be well-positioned for growth opportunities arising from digitization trends.Paired with its debt-free balance sheet, robust cash-on-hand balance, continued strength in generating cash from operations, and high-visibility revenues, Palantir makes a favourable investment ahead of the upcoming rate hikes with promising upside realizable over both the near and longer term.Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesPalantir (NYSE:PLTR) continues to be caught in the broader market rout these days, with the stock’s value declining more than 12% since the year opened. The current macro backdrop has not made a favourable environment for high-growth segment stocks. The recent release of meeting minutes from the FOMC’s policy meeting in December, paired with increasing consumer price pressures at record-setting levels have triggered hawkish sentiments supporting faster and sooner rate hikes beginning as early as March to curb runaway inflation. The hastened withdrawal of pandemic-era stimulus, coupled with the impending return of rate hikes have caused investors to turn risk averse on high-growth, high-valuation stocks. This is largely due to uncertainties over how the upcoming rate hikes might erode the value of future gains or stall business growth due to rising costs of capital.While the imminent tightening of monetary policy has stoked fear amongst equity investors as they mull on how to price the upcoming rate hike impacts into asset valuations, we believe Palantir will emerge favourably in both the near- and long-term. On one hand, the inflation-resistant nature of Palantir’s business, paired with its high-growth prospects and ability to generate robust cash flows from operations should make it an attractive stock within the near-term amidst mounting macro pressures. Meanwhile, in the longer term, Palantir’s technology will continue to play a critical role in supporting key digital trends like AI, which will soon become a necessity instead of novelty in the data-driven era. On these considerations, we believe Palantir's stock will soon resume its upwardmomentum, with the upcoming earnings report being a potential catalyst to jumpstart its performance.Near-Term Considerations for PalantirIn line with the broader market, Palantir's stock rallied on the first trading session of the year, with intraday gains of as much as 4%. However, the momentum was short-lived and has since been overtaken by an extended market rout triggered by increasingly hawkish narratives from Fed representatives. The rising urgency for faster and sooner rate hikes to combat the hottest inflation in close to four decades has sent market benchmarks like the S&P 500 on a rundown of close to 5%. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plunged by more than 8% since the year opened due to souring sentiment for high-growth, high-valuation stocks that have largely outperformed in the past 20 months. Instead, mature tech companies likeDell(NYSE:DELL) and HP(NYSE:HPQ)have been resilient due to their low debt, high cash flow, and stable-growth businesses, which provides a strong hedge against the impending rate hikes.However, Palantir’s upcoming earnings report will likely jumpstart the stock toward a similar trend as the mature tech companies. The company boasts a promising growth outlook built on continued innovation, with high visibility into future cash flows thanks to a robust contracted revenue base. Palantir also operates on a strong balance sheet, which is currently debt-free and boasts a robust cash-on-hand balance of more than $2.3 billion to support continued growth.While the impending rate hikes have put investors at the edge of their seats about potentially stalled growth and development in next-generation tech companies due to rising costs of capital in coming years, the fact that Palantir’s operations are already self-sufficient should not be overlooked. In the first nine months of 2021, Palantir generated more than $240 million in cash from operating activities alone, despite year-to-date net losses of $364 million. Much of the losses were driven by share-based compensation expenses, which will likely continue to put pressure on its profit margins in the near-term as the company prioritizes the retention of talent to support ongoing expansion of the business. However, these expenses are non-cash in nature, and when that is taken into account, Palantir is actually profitable on a cash-basis and have continued to demonstrate strength in generating significant free cash flows to fund its growth roadmap. This accordingly provides it with partial immunity against hemorrhaging valuation prospects due to rising costs of capital from the upcoming rate hikes.The company’s near-term growth trajectory also remains intact. As of the third quarter period ended September 2021, Palantir’s total unrealized deal value grew by 50% year-over-year to $3.6 billion with an average duration of at least four years. Palantir has continued to exhibit strength in both its commercial and government segments. Recent contract wins and extensions have been a testament to the effectiveness of Palantir’s software solutions, as well as accelerated adoption from both the private and public sectors as operations become increasingly digital, generating vast troves of data that will need to be integrated, processed and analyzed to drive key decision-making processes. In addition to the new and renewed contracts during the last three months of 2021, which have been discussed in our most recent coverage, Palantir has rung into the new year with a notable partnership forged with Hyundai Heavy Industries. The $25 million multi-year deal is a symbol of Palantir’s growing presence across the West’s APAC allies, and represents an extension of Palantir’s success in growing its commercial segment over the past year. Under the arrangement, Hyundai Heavy will leverage Palantir’s commercial software, likely Foundry, to create tools for breaking down the siloed data fields across its affiliate groups, which range from shipbuilding to industrial machinery processes, and facilitate better-integrated operations. The two companies intend to create a joint venture to commercialize the new tools built on Palantir’s platform, which will create greater exposure for Palantir’s technological capabilities to the global commercial sector, and further fortify the company’s growth prospects.Long-Term Considerations for PalantirOver the longer-term, we foresee Palantir’s technologies to evolve from a novelty into a necessity. AI-driven analytical tools like Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry will remain critical functions across both the public and private sectors to ensuring the seamless integration of data platforms and improving decision-making in the increasingly digital world. And Palantir is already in the works of pushing its software towards the mainstream by offering a wide range of solutions for organizations across both the private and public sectors to choose from on an as-needed basis.The introduction of “Foundry for Builders” in July is one of Palantir’s earliest strategies in opening up its offerings to the mass market. Foundry for Builders is offered under a subscription-based model and breaks down the traditional cost barriers that have hindered access to Palantir’s software solution for smaller commercial customers like Day One start-ups. The new offering enables Palantir to extend its Foundry capabilities to support all types of organizations, ranging from multinational corporations with complex data compilations to small- and medium-sized businesses with limited resources looking for a cost-effective data analytical tool. The strategy is expected to encourage mass market adoption of Palantir’s commercial segment offerings, and ensure further penetration into a total addressable market that is expected to grow from $400 billion today into $500 billion by 2025 and $1.6 trillion by the end of the decade. While the new offering is still in beta phase with availability offered to only a small cohort of start-ups, the positive reception received to date indicates significant potential for wider adoption once introduced to the broader market.The recent introduction of industry-specific modular solutions built on Foundry, such as “Carbon Emissions Management” and “Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Client for Crypto” (“AML / KYC for Crypto”), will also appeal to both government agencies and private businesses looking to tackle some of today’s most challenging problems. With increasing global calls for cutting pollution and combating climate change, Palantir’s Carbon Emissions Management tool can add value by helping its corporate clients integrate emissions data, such as daily pollution volumes across the supply chain and emissions reduction targets, with planned revenues and margins to determine the best trade-off based on their respective business plans and objectives. For instance, the Carbon Emissions Management tool can consolidate emissions data collected from disparate sources in real-time and simulate related impacts under different scenarios to drive the decision-making process on business changes required. The modular offering enables Palantir to capitalize on opportunities arising from growing ESG needs in the private sector, while also helping its clients better manage their emissions impacts and “develop a competitive edge to beat competition and win the market”.TheAML/KYC for Crypto solution is also deployed at an opportune time. Securities regulators have made it a priority to rein in the fast-growing cryptocurrency market with new rules, while cryptocurrency exchanges look for solutions to ensure compliance with the changing regulatory landscape. The new AML/KYC for Crypto tool is built on Palantir’s years of expertise in helping both regulators and private financial institutions address AML/KYC compliance considerations, and can be deployed in a time- and cost-effective manner for both sides of the equation across.AML/KYC for Crypto enables a large variety of use-cases ranging from real-time compliance tracking across disparate sources for cryptocurrency exchanges, to potentially regulatory simulations for securities regulators. This makes Palantir well-positioned to capitalize on the rising crypto momentum in coming years – the global blockchain market is expected to grow into a $67 billion opportunity by 2026, with proper management ofAML/KYC considerations encouraging adoption. And North America, Palantir’s key market, will maintain the largest share, underpinning robust demand for the new industry-specific solution in coming years.Palantir is also making steady progress towards its ultimate goal of becoming “the U.S. government’s central operating system”. In addition to Palantir’s continued push for its software solutions to be implemented across government agencies ranging from defense to healthcare, the public sector has also become increasingly receptive of reliance on technology and innovation. While the $778 billion annual defense spending budget authorized by the Senate in December remains flat compared to the prior year’s after adjusting for inflation, funding allocated towards R&D and procurement of emerging technologies like AI systems have increased by more than $3 billion. The Pentagon has also welcomed the development and utilization of innovative technologies in defense and combat in recent years, as they work on breaking the high barriers of entry that the giant defense contractors have historically built. In 2020, the agency allocated $1.5 billion in direct funding to more than 1,600 software-as-a-service start-ups, and set aside a number of defense contracts valued at up to $3 million each for early-stage software providers. Frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. have also indicated technology as one of the top three items that can “help reduce their stress and become more effective”. Specifically, tools that can help “automate tasks, provide remote assistance and help communicate with colleagues” are seen as the most helpful. This signals that a greater market of opportunities from the U.S. government is coming Palantir’s way, underpinning additional multi-year growth in the foreseeable future.Where Might PLTR Stock be Headed?PLTR 12-Month Price TargetConsidering Palantir’s growth outlook remains intact for both the near- and longer-term despite mounting macro headwinds, we are maintaining our 12-month price target for the stock at $25.45. Consistent with our previous analysis on potentially better-than-expected FY 2021 financial performance, we believe the upcoming earnings call will be a catalyst to jumpstarting the stock from its recent declines and bolster investors’ confidence on Palantir’s valuation prospects ahead of the upcoming rate hikes.i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:PLTR Valuation Analysisii. Sensitivity Analysis:PLTR Sensitivity Analysisiii. Base Case Financial Forecast:PLTR Base Case Financial ForecastWhile Palantir’s mounting share-based compensation balance has been a sign of deterrence for many investors due to added pressure to profit margins and share dilution risks in the long-run, we believe the company’s strong fundamentals and growth prospects ahead will be more than enough to offset related impacts. Recall from our discussion in earlier sections that share-based compensation expenses are non-cash in nature, thus from a fundamental perspective, Palantir’s free cash flows continue to reflect the underlying business’ high-growth nature. In short, the company continues to be increasingly self-sufficient with a robust cash runway to fund growth in coming years.And from a valuation perspective, the share-based compensation issued today cannot be exercised or sold until they vest, which could still be a few years out. Although many senior executives, including CEO Alex Karp, had offloaded a significant volume of shares last year causing stock price pressures, it was part of a long-term compensation-realization scheme, in which share-based compensation issued at the earlier days of Palantir were nearing expiry in December. As such, we are not expecting similar high-volume sell-offs within the foreseeable future.As we mentioned on prior earnings calls, Karp was granted options a decade ago which we set to expire on December 3rd of this year. Specifically, as a report equity yields 60.9 million options that were set to expire this December. The taxes from the exercise of the options are more than $0.5 billion. And so we've been selling shares along the way to generate funds to pay those taxes. Of the 16.9 million expiring options, he has now exercised 94% of the total. Of the remaining 6%, roughly half or 1.9 million of them will be sold by the expiration date, the other half exercised and as a result, all the near-term expiring options will be exercised.Source:Q3 2021 Earnings Call TranscriptThis is further corroborated by the fact that insider selling activity has since calmed according to recent SEC filings, with only one instance earlier this year by Alex Moore, a Palantir veteran. Similar to other insider share-selling activities observed in the past year, the offloaded shares were done in compliance with Rule 10b5-1, meaning it had been planned in advance and not based on any immediate insider information on the company’s performance. From a fundamental standpoint, the latest share-selling activity also does not imply any adverse impacts to the company’s growth outlook.Going forward, we expect share dilutions related to share-based compensation to occur at a much more mild rate, similar to other tech stocks that have very much relied on the non-cash compensation strategy to acquire top talent needed to facilitate growth. And robust fundamental growth in years ahead is expected to compensate for said dilution impacts. Palantir is expected to start realizing nominal profits of $141.1 million by 2025, with further growth towards $1.5 billion by the end of the decade based on our current base case forecast, which is also consistent with anticipated long-term top-line growth that management has guided. The returns are expected to far exceed the anticipated rate of share dilution at 4% per year resulting from the share-based compensation program.We also expect share-based compensation expenses to scale back and represent a smaller portion of annual revenues in coming years. Strategically, Palantir’s extension of generous share-based compensation packages for its employees will continue to provide them with an incentive to remain committed to the company’s growth. But to ensure the incentive is useful, it is unlikely that Palantir will do it at the expense of over-diluting the company’s share price over the longer-term. While the current share-based compensation expenses represent a large portion of annual revenues, we expect similar spending will scale back in coming years as the company continues to grow to ensure a balance and alignment of interest between employees and shareholders.ConclusionPalantir remains on a robust growth trajectory as global digitization trends in coming years continue to underpin demand for data management and analytics software like Foundry and Gotham. While government contracts, especially those associated with defense, remain Palantir’s priority, the company has made significant progress in strategically capitalizing on growth opportunities from the commercial segment. The resulting fundamental performance is also expected to compensate for any potential share-sale dilutions related to the share-based compensation program over the longer-term. With the stock now trading at a discount of more than 60% from its peak in early 2021 with no material changes to its growth outlook, we consider the recent pullback a reasonable entry point with potential upside momentum to resume going into the upcoming earnings season and as mounting macro headwinds abate.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2622,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/630409196"}
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