JayWin
2022-01-20
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Expect a major market sell-off in first half of year: Strategist<blockquote>策略师：预计上半年市场将出现大幅抛售</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":630985524,"tweetId":"630985524","gmtCreate":1642666470835,"gmtModify":1642666471206,"author":{"id":3581832598723204,"idStr":"3581832598723204","authorId":3581832598723204,"authorIdStr":"3581832598723204","name":"JayWin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7fe632cbb77a4bc57ba97f59aeb8162","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":30,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please reply and like, thanks </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Please reply and like, thanks </p></body></html>","text":"Please reply and like, thanks","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630985524","repostId":1190474321,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190474321","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642666331,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190474321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-20 16:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect a major market sell-off in first half of year: Strategist<blockquote>策略师：预计上半年市场将出现大幅抛售</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190474321","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Expect a market sell-off so significant that the Federal Reserve will likely \"not carry through\" wit","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Expect a market sell-off so significant that the Federal Reserve will likely "not carry through" with all of its anticipated rate hikes this year, predicts macro investor Felix Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>宏观投资者菲利克斯·祖劳夫(Felix Zulauf)预测，预计市场抛售将如此严重，以至于美联储今年可能“不会实施”所有预期的加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>"I doubt that they will be as hawkish going through the year as they are saying now," the CEO of Zulauf Consulting told Yahoo Finance.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫咨询公司首席执行官告诉雅虎财经：“我怀疑他们今年是否会像现在所说的那样强硬。”</blockquote></p><p>"My expectation is that we have a sharp sell-off in the markets, maybe 30% from the highs, into the summer, and then the Fed and other central banks will panic," he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充道：“我的预期是，到夏季，市场将出现大幅抛售，可能较高点下跌30%，然后美联储和其他央行将陷入恐慌。”</blockquote></p><p>"In the past, whenever the markets went down by 20%, that was about the pain level when [the Federal Reserve] began to focus on the market," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫表示：“过去，每当市场下跌20%时，这大约是[美联储]开始关注市场时的痛苦程度。”</blockquote></p><p>"I do believe that that will stop [them] from carrying through," added Zulauf. "Particularly if inflation softens somewhat." The investor expects inflation to temporarily moderate this year, as compared to the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>“我确实相信这将阻止[他们]继续下去，”祖劳夫补充道。“特别是如果通胀有所放缓的话。”投资者预计，与过去12个月相比，今年通胀将暂时放缓。</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve is tapering its purchase of bonds in order to combat the highest rate of inflation in over 40 years. The central bank is expected to consider three short-term interest rate hikes starting as soon as March, and debate ways by which it can reduce its asset holdings.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在缩减债券购买规模，以应对40多年来最高的通胀率。预计央行最早将考虑从3月份开始进行三次短期加息，并讨论减少资产持有的方式。</blockquote></p><p>"If they [the Fed] take liquidity out of the system, which they are intending to do by reducing their balance sheet ... I think when they begin to do that, they are probably most likely triggering a major sell-off," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他们（美联储）从系统中取出流动性，他们打算通过缩减资产负债表来做到这一点……我认为当他们开始这样做时，他们很可能会引发大规模抛售，”祖劳夫说。</blockquote></p><p>Once that happens, he predicts the Fed will "turn around and ease again, and they become aggressive to prevent the markets from going further down, a real meltdown."</p><p><blockquote>一旦发生这种情况，他预测美联储将“再次转向宽松政策，他们将变得更加积极，以防止市场进一步下跌，真正的崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p>A Fed reversal will give way to a massive rally after the sell-off, says Zulauf. "That will then trigger another wave up to new highs in 2023 and 2024.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫表示，美联储的逆转将让位于抛售后的大幅反弹。“这将在2023年和2024年引发另一波新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c01baca56812c5b82569eaf40cfcd03\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>'The darlings usually break last'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“亲爱的通常最后打破”</b></blockquote></p><p>Roughly 40% of Nasdaq (^IXIC) stocks have quietly been getting shredded,declining at least 50% from their all time highs.</p><p><blockquote>大约40%的纳斯达克(^IXIC)股票已悄然被粉碎，较历史高点下跌至少50%。</blockquote></p><p>"It doesn't show up in the Nasdaq or S&P (^GSPC) because of the — let's call them great eight: the large-cap growth stock darlings. They are still hanging up there, and I think they are building tops," said Zulauf. "The darlings usually break last."</p><p><blockquote>“它没有出现在纳斯达克或标准普尔指数(^GSPC)中，因为——让我们看涨期权他们八巨头：大盘成长型股票的宠儿。他们仍然挂在那里，我认为他们正在建立顶部，”祖劳夫说。“亲爱的通常是最后一个分手的。”</blockquote></p><p>"Once they break, then I think the game changes because they are the assets that are overweighted in virtually every portfolio," he said.</p><p><blockquote>“一旦它们崩溃，我认为游戏就会改变，因为它们是几乎每个投资组合中都被增持的资产，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>"When you need to sell, because of redemptions as a mutual fund manager, you do not sell your darlings. You sell all the other stocks until you have no choice because their percentage becomes so high that you have to sell them," added Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“当你因为作为共同基金经理的赎回而需要出售时，你不会出售你的宠儿。你会出售所有其他股票，直到你别无选择，因为它们的百分比变得如此之高，以至于你必须出售它们，”祖劳夫补充道。</blockquote></p><p>Over the last several weeks, money has flowed more into value and cyclical trades like Energy and Financial stocks. "That will change too," warned Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，资金更多地流入能源和金融股等价值和周期性交易。“这种情况也会改变，”祖劳夫警告说。</blockquote></p><p>"What I'm describing is really the upcoming unwinding of the inflation trade," which includes rising inflation, low bond yields and rising commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>“我所描述的实际上是通胀交易即将结束”，其中包括通胀上升、债券收益率低和大宗商品价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>"This is all bullish for equities and real assets. And I think the markets in all the asset classes are positioned that way. It's short the bond market, and it's long the equity market. And I think that is going to change," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“这对股票和实物资产来说都是看涨的。我认为所有资产类别的市场都是这样定位的。做空债券市场，做多股票市场。我认为这种情况将会改变，”Zulauf说。</blockquote></p><p>On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite was hovering near correction territory, down almost 10% from its November high. Tech and internet stocks have been selling off recently as treasury yields have spiked. The U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.85% on Tuesday, its highest level in two years.</p><p><blockquote>周二，纳斯达克综合指数徘徊在修正区域附近，较11月高点下跌近10%。随着美国国债收益率飙升，科技股和互联网股最近遭到抛售。美国10年期国债收益率周二升至1.85%，为两年来最高水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect a major market sell-off in first half of year: Strategist<blockquote>策略师：预计上半年市场将出现大幅抛售</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect a major market sell-off in first half of year: Strategist<blockquote>策略师：预计上半年市场将出现大幅抛售</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-20 16:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Expect a market sell-off so significant that the Federal Reserve will likely "not carry through" with all of its anticipated rate hikes this year, predicts macro investor Felix Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>宏观投资者菲利克斯·祖劳夫(Felix Zulauf)预测，预计市场抛售将如此严重，以至于美联储今年可能“不会实施”所有预期的加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>"I doubt that they will be as hawkish going through the year as they are saying now," the CEO of Zulauf Consulting told Yahoo Finance.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫咨询公司首席执行官告诉雅虎财经：“我怀疑他们今年是否会像现在所说的那样强硬。”</blockquote></p><p>"My expectation is that we have a sharp sell-off in the markets, maybe 30% from the highs, into the summer, and then the Fed and other central banks will panic," he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充道：“我的预期是，到夏季，市场将出现大幅抛售，可能较高点下跌30%，然后美联储和其他央行将陷入恐慌。”</blockquote></p><p>"In the past, whenever the markets went down by 20%, that was about the pain level when [the Federal Reserve] began to focus on the market," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫表示：“过去，每当市场下跌20%时，这大约是[美联储]开始关注市场时的痛苦程度。”</blockquote></p><p>"I do believe that that will stop [them] from carrying through," added Zulauf. "Particularly if inflation softens somewhat." The investor expects inflation to temporarily moderate this year, as compared to the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>“我确实相信这将阻止[他们]继续下去，”祖劳夫补充道。“特别是如果通胀有所放缓的话。”投资者预计，与过去12个月相比，今年通胀将暂时放缓。</blockquote></p><p>The Federal Reserve is tapering its purchase of bonds in order to combat the highest rate of inflation in over 40 years. The central bank is expected to consider three short-term interest rate hikes starting as soon as March, and debate ways by which it can reduce its asset holdings.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在缩减债券购买规模，以应对40多年来最高的通胀率。预计央行最早将考虑从3月份开始进行三次短期加息，并讨论减少资产持有的方式。</blockquote></p><p>"If they [the Fed] take liquidity out of the system, which they are intending to do by reducing their balance sheet ... I think when they begin to do that, they are probably most likely triggering a major sell-off," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“如果他们（美联储）从系统中取出流动性，他们打算通过缩减资产负债表来做到这一点……我认为当他们开始这样做时，他们很可能会引发大规模抛售，”祖劳夫说。</blockquote></p><p>Once that happens, he predicts the Fed will "turn around and ease again, and they become aggressive to prevent the markets from going further down, a real meltdown."</p><p><blockquote>一旦发生这种情况，他预测美联储将“再次转向宽松政策，他们将变得更加积极，以防止市场进一步下跌，真正的崩溃。”</blockquote></p><p>A Fed reversal will give way to a massive rally after the sell-off, says Zulauf. "That will then trigger another wave up to new highs in 2023 and 2024.</p><p><blockquote>祖劳夫表示，美联储的逆转将让位于抛售后的大幅反弹。“这将在2023年和2024年引发另一波新高。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c01baca56812c5b82569eaf40cfcd03\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"706\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>'The darlings usually break last'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“亲爱的通常最后打破”</b></blockquote></p><p>Roughly 40% of Nasdaq (^IXIC) stocks have quietly been getting shredded,declining at least 50% from their all time highs.</p><p><blockquote>大约40%的纳斯达克(^IXIC)股票已悄然被粉碎，较历史高点下跌至少50%。</blockquote></p><p>"It doesn't show up in the Nasdaq or S&P (^GSPC) because of the — let's call them great eight: the large-cap growth stock darlings. They are still hanging up there, and I think they are building tops," said Zulauf. "The darlings usually break last."</p><p><blockquote>“它没有出现在纳斯达克或标准普尔指数(^GSPC)中，因为——让我们看涨期权他们八巨头：大盘成长型股票的宠儿。他们仍然挂在那里，我认为他们正在建立顶部，”祖劳夫说。“亲爱的通常是最后一个分手的。”</blockquote></p><p>"Once they break, then I think the game changes because they are the assets that are overweighted in virtually every portfolio," he said.</p><p><blockquote>“一旦它们崩溃，我认为游戏就会改变，因为它们是几乎每个投资组合中都被增持的资产，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>"When you need to sell, because of redemptions as a mutual fund manager, you do not sell your darlings. You sell all the other stocks until you have no choice because their percentage becomes so high that you have to sell them," added Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“当你因为作为共同基金经理的赎回而需要出售时，你不会出售你的宠儿。你会出售所有其他股票，直到你别无选择，因为它们的百分比变得如此之高，以至于你必须出售它们，”祖劳夫补充道。</blockquote></p><p>Over the last several weeks, money has flowed more into value and cyclical trades like Energy and Financial stocks. "That will change too," warned Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>过去几周，资金更多地流入能源和金融股等价值和周期性交易。“这种情况也会改变，”祖劳夫警告说。</blockquote></p><p>"What I'm describing is really the upcoming unwinding of the inflation trade," which includes rising inflation, low bond yields and rising commodity prices.</p><p><blockquote>“我所描述的实际上是通胀交易即将结束”，其中包括通胀上升、债券收益率低和大宗商品价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p>"This is all bullish for equities and real assets. And I think the markets in all the asset classes are positioned that way. It's short the bond market, and it's long the equity market. And I think that is going to change," said Zulauf.</p><p><blockquote>“这对股票和实物资产来说都是看涨的。我认为所有资产类别的市场都是这样定位的。做空债券市场，做多股票市场。我认为这种情况将会改变，”Zulauf说。</blockquote></p><p>On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite was hovering near correction territory, down almost 10% from its November high. Tech and internet stocks have been selling off recently as treasury yields have spiked. The U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.85% on Tuesday, its highest level in two years.</p><p><blockquote>周二，纳斯达克综合指数徘徊在修正区域附近，较11月高点下跌近10%。随着美国国债收益率飙升，科技股和互联网股最近遭到抛售。美国10年期国债收益率周二升至1.85%，为两年来最高水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-major-market-sell-off-in-first-half-of-year-investor-felix-zulauf-134306628.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-major-market-sell-off-in-first-half-of-year-investor-felix-zulauf-134306628.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190474321","content_text":"Expect a market sell-off so significant that the Federal Reserve will likely \"not carry through\" with all of its anticipated rate hikes this year, predicts macro investor Felix Zulauf.\"I doubt that they will be as hawkish going through the year as they are saying now,\" the CEO of Zulauf Consulting told Yahoo Finance.\"My expectation is that we have a sharp sell-off in the markets, maybe 30% from the highs, into the summer, and then the Fed and other central banks will panic,\" he added.\"In the past, whenever the markets went down by 20%, that was about the pain level when [the Federal Reserve] began to focus on the market,\" said Zulauf.\"I do believe that that will stop [them] from carrying through,\" added Zulauf. \"Particularly if inflation softens somewhat.\" The investor expects inflation to temporarily moderate this year, as compared to the last 12 months.The Federal Reserve is tapering its purchase of bonds in order to combat the highest rate of inflation in over 40 years. The central bank is expected to consider three short-term interest rate hikes starting as soon as March, and debate ways by which it can reduce its asset holdings.\"If they [the Fed] take liquidity out of the system, which they are intending to do by reducing their balance sheet ... I think when they begin to do that, they are probably most likely triggering a major sell-off,\" said Zulauf.Once that happens, he predicts the Fed will \"turn around and ease again, and they become aggressive to prevent the markets from going further down, a real meltdown.\"A Fed reversal will give way to a massive rally after the sell-off, says Zulauf. \"That will then trigger another wave up to new highs in 2023 and 2024.'The darlings usually break last'Roughly 40% of Nasdaq (^IXIC) stocks have quietly been getting shredded,declining at least 50% from their all time highs.\"It doesn't show up in the Nasdaq or S&P (^GSPC) because of the — let's call them great eight: the large-cap growth stock darlings. They are still hanging up there, and I think they are building tops,\" said Zulauf. \"The darlings usually break last.\"\"Once they break, then I think the game changes because they are the assets that are overweighted in virtually every portfolio,\" he said.\"When you need to sell, because of redemptions as a mutual fund manager, you do not sell your darlings. You sell all the other stocks until you have no choice because their percentage becomes so high that you have to sell them,\" added Zulauf.Over the last several weeks, money has flowed more into value and cyclical trades like Energy and Financial stocks. \"That will change too,\" warned Zulauf.\"What I'm describing is really the upcoming unwinding of the inflation trade,\" which includes rising inflation, low bond yields and rising commodity prices.\"This is all bullish for equities and real assets. And I think the markets in all the asset classes are positioned that way. It's short the bond market, and it's long the equity market. And I think that is going to change,\" said Zulauf.On Tuesday, the Nasdaq Composite was hovering near correction territory, down almost 10% from its November high. Tech and internet stocks have been selling off recently as treasury yields have spiked. The U.S. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.85% on Tuesday, its highest level in two years.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/630985524"}
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