KL123
2022-02-06
Wow
The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":633258967,"tweetId":"633258967","gmtCreate":1644162942730,"gmtModify":1644162942887,"author":{"id":3574927733378333,"idStr":"3574927733378333","authorId":3574927733378333,"authorIdStr":"3574927733378333","name":"KL123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":8,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wow </p></body></html>","text":"Wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633258967","repostId":2209466983,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209466983","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644232684,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2209466983?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-07 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209466983","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly c","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能已经准备好进行下一次所谓的 “痛苦 ”交易，市场参与者越来越多地团结在美联储需要采取积极行动应对美国持续通胀的预期周围。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.</p><p><blockquote>随着交易员为今年从 3 月份开始的一系列加息做好准备，如果基于市场的预期突然转变，许多交易员可能会陷入拥挤的押注，这些押注旨在从预期的货币政策举措中获利。</blockquote></p><p>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p><blockquote>根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch Tool）的数据，周五公布的 1 月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这使得美联储下个月加息的可能性更大，可能比平时加息 0.50 个百分点，而央行年底政策利率目标在 1.75% 至 2% 之间的可能性也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19 大流行将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向有利于提高政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的通胀问题。另一种支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济太脆弱，无法应对过度紧缩，通胀随后会消退。</blockquote></p><p>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场叙事突然逆转，这使得那些准备提高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote></p><p>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?</p><p><blockquote>“纽约对冲基金 WinShore Capital Partners 的 TIPS 交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：”这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。“在阅读街上的各种研究论文时，我找不到任何人不同意彼此的观点。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会让我们 ”退出这个行业呢？</blockquote></p><p>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.</p><p><blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率的上升，10 年期国债收益率突破 1.9%，股市找到了立足点，投资者也做好了准备，美联储似乎肯定会摆脱宽松货币的立场，而宽松货币的立场一直将美联储资金固定在 0% 至 0.25% 之间的当前水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最成熟的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote></p><p>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.</p><p><blockquote>胡在电话中告诉 MarketWatch，疫情的意想不到的性质产生了足够多的不确定性，给前景留下了挥之不去的疑虑——首先是新一波 COVID-19 病例可能随时再次出现，而且增长可能会逐渐减少，从而降低通胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与其长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五该曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote></p><p>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们都在追随央行，相信央行告诉我们的一切。“但我希望他们下次可能会告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote></p><p>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，越来越少的人控制着更多的资金，获得了所有相同的信息，并做出了相同的赌注——其中一家金融公司突破了 10 万亿美元的门槛。在如此少的人控制如此多的情况下，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的对手，让他们退出这个行业？”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.</p><p><blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本会更高。“纽约债券承销商 Roosevelt & Cross 的首席交易员约翰-法拉威尔（John Farawell）说：”你可以执行，但如果你被迫卖出，退出可能会是一个痛苦的调整。</blockquote></p><p>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”</p><p><blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告 “震惊了所有人 ”，这是一个例子，说明羊群是多么容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是要加息 25 个基点还是 50 个基点，当我看到每个人的看法都一样时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人都认为曲线会变平，现在下一个痛苦的交易可能是陡峭的。”</blockquote></p><p>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，在一个流行的赌注中站在错误一边的困难得到了强调，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因对美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要短盖</a>据说，回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸是导致11月初美国国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.</p><p><blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者的缺席，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆-克洛扎（Tom Kloza）说，在大流行病期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，尤其是那些曾经充当 “熔断器 ”角色的公司。因此，几家勘探和生产公司表示不会对冲期货，“参与者越少，波动性就越大，”克洛扎说。</blockquote></p><p>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为 7.2%。交易员还预计 2 月份将达到 7.4%，3 月份将达到 7.2%，然后年度 CPI 将在年底开始降至 3.3%。</blockquote></p><p>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.</p><p><blockquote>“费城格伦米德投资管理公司（Glenmede Investment Management）固定收益主管罗布-戴利（Rob Daly）说：”在看待通货膨胀对市场的影响时，肯定有两种不同的观点，但并没有我希望的那样分散。</blockquote></p><p>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在电话中说：”如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10 年期国债收益率回落至 1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人，那么下一次痛苦交易可能会到来。“也可能来自通货膨胀的持续和风险的缓解。”</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-07 19:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能已经准备好进行下一次所谓的 “痛苦 ”交易，市场参与者越来越多地团结在美联储需要采取积极行动应对美国持续通胀的预期周围。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.</p><p><blockquote>随着交易员为今年从 3 月份开始的一系列加息做好准备，如果基于市场的预期突然转变，许多交易员可能会陷入拥挤的押注，这些押注旨在从预期的货币政策举措中获利。</blockquote></p><p>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.</p><p><blockquote>根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（CME FedWatch Tool）的数据，周五公布的 1 月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这使得美联储下个月加息的可能性更大，可能比平时加息 0.50 个百分点，而央行年底政策利率目标在 1.75% 至 2% 之间的可能性也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19 大流行将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向有利于提高政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的通胀问题。另一种支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济太脆弱，无法应对过度紧缩，通胀随后会消退。</blockquote></p><p>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场叙事突然逆转，这使得那些准备提高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote></p><p>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?</p><p><blockquote>“纽约对冲基金 WinShore Capital Partners 的 TIPS 交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：”这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。“在阅读街上的各种研究论文时，我找不到任何人不同意彼此的观点。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会让我们 ”退出这个行业呢？</blockquote></p><p>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.</p><p><blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率的上升，10 年期国债收益率突破 1.9%，股市找到了立足点，投资者也做好了准备，美联储似乎肯定会摆脱宽松货币的立场，而宽松货币的立场一直将美联储资金固定在 0% 至 0.25% 之间的当前水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最成熟的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote></p><p>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.</p><p><blockquote>胡在电话中告诉 MarketWatch，疫情的意想不到的性质产生了足够多的不确定性，给前景留下了挥之不去的疑虑——首先是新一波 COVID-19 病例可能随时再次出现，而且增长可能会逐渐减少，从而降低通胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与其长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五该曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote></p><p>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们都在追随央行，相信央行告诉我们的一切。“但我希望他们下次可能会告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote></p><p>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，越来越少的人控制着更多的资金，获得了所有相同的信息，并做出了相同的赌注——其中一家金融公司突破了 10 万亿美元的门槛。在如此少的人控制如此多的情况下，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的对手，让他们退出这个行业？”他写道。</blockquote></p><p>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.</p><p><blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本会更高。“纽约债券承销商 Roosevelt & Cross 的首席交易员约翰-法拉威尔（John Farawell）说：”你可以执行，但如果你被迫卖出，退出可能会是一个痛苦的调整。</blockquote></p><p>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”</p><p><blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告 “震惊了所有人 ”，这是一个例子，说明羊群是多么容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是要加息 25 个基点还是 50 个基点，当我看到每个人的看法都一样时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人都认为曲线会变平，现在下一个痛苦的交易可能是陡峭的。”</blockquote></p><p>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，在一个流行的赌注中站在错误一边的困难得到了强调，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因对美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要短盖</a>据说，回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸是导致11月初美国国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.</p><p><blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者的缺席，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆-克洛扎（Tom Kloza）说，在大流行病期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，尤其是那些曾经充当 “熔断器 ”角色的公司。因此，几家勘探和生产公司表示不会对冲期货，“参与者越少，波动性就越大，”克洛扎说。</blockquote></p><p>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为 7.2%。交易员还预计 2 月份将达到 7.4%，3 月份将达到 7.2%，然后年度 CPI 将在年底开始降至 3.3%。</blockquote></p><p>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.</p><p><blockquote>“费城格伦米德投资管理公司（Glenmede Investment Management）固定收益主管罗布-戴利（Rob Daly）说：”在看待通货膨胀对市场的影响时，肯定有两种不同的观点，但并没有我希望的那样分散。</blockquote></p><p>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在电话中说：”如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10 年期国债收益率回落至 1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人，那么下一次痛苦交易可能会到来。“也可能来自通货膨胀的持续和风险的缓解。”</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209466983","content_text":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when hedge funds incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their need to short-cover, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3438,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/633258967"}
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