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2022-02-20

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JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在2023年3月之前连续九次加息</blockquote>

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That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>摩根大通经济学家表示，美联储可能会在2023年3月之前的每次政策会议上加息25个基点，以控制飙升的通胀。这意味着到明年3月将连续九次加息，达到2.25%。</body></html></blockquote>The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.<blockquote>这一预测发布之际，美国1月份消费者价格出现了四十年来的最大涨幅，引发了人们对经济过热和股市大幅抛售的担忧。</blockquote>A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.<blockquote>多位美联储官员在过去几周暗示了更快收紧政策的可能性。上周五，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯·埃文斯表示，鉴于通胀急剧上升，美联储需要“大幅调整”其“失足”的货币政策。</blockquote>The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the Barron’s cover story this weekend.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔和央行面临的挑战在巴伦周刊这个周末的封面故事。</blockquote>The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.<blockquote>目前期货市场的定价是，美联储在3月份的下一次会议上加息25个基点的可能性为64%，更激进的加息50个基点的可能性为36%。</blockquote>Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.<blockquote>在最新的通胀数据公布后，摩根大通经济学家将第一季度全球CPI预测调整为较去年同期上涨5.7%，高于此前预测的增长3.5%。</blockquote>“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.<blockquote>首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)领导的团队在一份研究报告中写道：“我们现在不再看到上个季度接近创纪录的增速有所放缓。”</blockquote>Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.<blockquote>卡斯曼写道，尽管能源行业最近的价格压力可能会消退，但最近的数据表明通胀正在扩大，“强劲增长、成本压力和私营部门行为之间的反馈循环正在形成”。</blockquote>“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“我们认为，央行转变并认为需要实现缓慢增长的风险——以及对全球金融状况的相应影响——现在是对健康的全球背景的最重大威胁。”</blockquote>JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. Bank of America also increased its forecasts and now expects seven increases this year, or once at every meeting.<blockquote>摩根大通并不是华尔街唯一一家预测更激进加息的银行。高盛预测今年将增长七次，高于此前预测的五次。美国银行也上调了预测，目前预计今年加息七次，即每次会议加息一次。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在2023年3月之前连续九次加息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Now Expects Nine Straight Fed Rate Increases Until March 2023<blockquote>摩根大通目前预计美联储将在2023年3月之前连续九次加息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-02-20 08:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation under control. That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>摩根大通经济学家表示，美联储可能会在2023年3月之前的每次政策会议上加息25个基点，以控制飙升的通胀。这意味着到明年3月将连续九次加息，达到2.25%。</body></html></blockquote>The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.<blockquote>这一预测发布之际，美国1月份消费者价格出现了四十年来的最大涨幅，引发了人们对经济过热和股市大幅抛售的担忧。</blockquote>A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.<blockquote>多位美联储官员在过去几周暗示了更快收紧政策的可能性。上周五，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长查尔斯·埃文斯表示，鉴于通胀急剧上升，美联储需要“大幅调整”其“失足”的货币政策。</blockquote>The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the Barron’s cover story this weekend.<blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔和央行面临的挑战在巴伦周刊这个周末的封面故事。</blockquote>The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.<blockquote>目前期货市场的定价是，美联储在3月份的下一次会议上加息25个基点的可能性为64%，更激进的加息50个基点的可能性为36%。</blockquote>Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.<blockquote>在最新的通胀数据公布后，摩根大通经济学家将第一季度全球CPI预测调整为较去年同期上涨5.7%，高于此前预测的增长3.5%。</blockquote>“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.<blockquote>首席经济学家布鲁斯·卡斯曼(Bruce Kasman)领导的团队在一份研究报告中写道：“我们现在不再看到上个季度接近创纪录的增速有所放缓。”</blockquote>Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.<blockquote>卡斯曼写道，尽管能源行业最近的价格压力可能会消退，但最近的数据表明通胀正在扩大，“强劲增长、成本压力和私营部门行为之间的反馈循环正在形成”。</blockquote>“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“我们认为，央行转变并认为需要实现缓慢增长的风险——以及对全球金融状况的相应影响——现在是对健康的全球背景的最重大威胁。”</blockquote>JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. Bank of America also increased its forecasts and now expects seven increases this year, or once at every meeting.<blockquote>摩根大通并不是华尔街唯一一家预测更激进加息的银行。高盛预测今年将增长七次，高于此前预测的五次。美国银行也上调了预测，目前预计今年加息七次，即每次会议加息一次。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-now-expects-nine-straight-fed-rate-increases-until-march-2023-51645298667?mod=hp_LEAD_2\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/jpmorgan-now-expects-nine-straight-fed-rate-increases-until-march-2023-51645298667?mod=hp_LEAD_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148786525","content_text":"Economists at JPMorgan Chase said the Federal Reserve would likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the future policy meetings until March 2023 in an effort to get soaring inflation under control. That would mean nine consecutive rate increases, to 2.25%, by March next year.The forecast came as U.S. consumer prices in January showed their biggest jump in four decades, triggering concerns about an overheated economy and sharp selloff of the stock market.A number of Federal Reserve officials have signaled the possibility of faster policy tightening in the past weeks. On Friday, Charles Evans, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said the Fed needed a “substantial adjustment” of its “wrong-footed” monetary policy given the sharp increase of inflation.The challenges facing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank are examined in the Barron’s cover story this weekend.The futures market is now priced for a 64% probability of a 25-basis-point rate boost at the next Fed meeting in March, and a 36% chance of an even more aggressive increase of 50 basis points.Following the latest inflation readings, JPMorgan economists adjusted their global CPI forecast for the first quarter to 5.7% higher from the same period last year, up from the previous forecast of a 3.5% growth.“We now no longer see deceleration from last quarter’s near-record pace,” wrote the team led by chief economist Bruce Kasman in a research note.Although the recent price pressures in the energy sector will likely fade, recent data are pointing to broadening inflation and “a feedback loop taking hold between strong growth, cost pressures, and private sector behavior,” Kasman wrote.“We think the risk that central banks shift and perceive a need to generate slow growth—and the corresponding impact on global financial conditions—is now the most significant threat to an otherwise healthy global backdrop,” he wrote.JPMorgan isn’t the only bank on Wall Street predicting more aggressive rate hikes. Goldman Sachs is forecasting seven increases this year, up from its earlier prediction of five. Bank of America also increased its forecasts and now expects seven increases this year, or once at every meeting.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1818,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/638207509"}