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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":638816244,"tweetId":"638816244","gmtCreate":1645171331102,"gmtModify":1645171331392,"author":{"id":3586255748151463,"idStr":"3586255748151463","authorId":3586255748151463,"authorIdStr":"3586255748151463","name":"indietro_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caebb6c2a70cbd2db563a3808f3d7b22","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":25,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Ok</body></html>","text":"Ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638816244","repostId":1195946210,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195946210","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645151754,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195946210?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-18 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Great Reset<blockquote>Palantir：大重置</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195946210","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAfter its direct listing shares skyrocketed to nearly $40, and have now returned to sub-$12 a","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>After its direct listing shares skyrocketed to nearly $40, and have now returned to sub-$12 at the time of this writing.</li><li>There is a host of reasons why the stock is still expensive.</li><li>Revenue growth at 30% per year through 2025.</li><li>There is some residual value in contracts booked with Palantir that are yet to be delivered that will lead to future revenue.</li><li>Free cash flow positive, and scratching the surface of profitability.</li></ul>There is no doubt about it, technology stocks, especially those that are potential game-changing names, are often extremely expensive. For years many of these stocks will lose money but invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. Sometimes that growth fades and the company never really transforms the world like it set out to do. Then there are times where for years the company loses money, but the internal metrics improve year after year and growth eventually is so strong profits roll in. Every great tech giant you know started out losing money. Picking winners and losers is easier said than done in the long term, but the key in our opinion is to look at what problems they solve, who their customers are, the growth, and to a lesser degree, valuation. One of the most controversial stocks in the market is Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock direct listed in 2020 and took off during the major tech rally into 2021. But in 2021, the stock began to fade, and today is back under $12. Has it come down enough? We think so, for the long-term investor. Even for traders, the potential of a dead cat bounce near-term is highly likely, but in the near-term, the stock is still expensive, even for high growth tech, but is much more reasonable compared to a few months ago. Thecompany just reported earnings, and the growth remains on track. The company is scratching the surface of profitability and is free cash flow positive. Customer count is growing and retention is strong. In short, we believe you can finally start buying here again.<blockquote><ul><li>直接上市后，股价飙升至近 40 美元，截至撰写本文时已回到 12 美元以下。</li><li>该股仍然昂贵的原因有很多。</li><li>到 2025 年，收入每年增长 30%。</li><li>与Palantir签订的合同中有一些尚未交付的剩余价值，这将导致未来的收入。</li><li>自由现金流为正，并触及盈利的表面。</li></ul>毫无疑问，科技股，尤其是那些潜在的改变游戏规则的股票，往往极其昂贵。多年来，这些股票中的许多都会亏损，但在收入大幅增长的同时，大量投资于它们的增长。有时这种增长会消退，公司也从未像它计划的那样真正改变世界。有时公司多年来一直亏损，但内部指标逐年改善，增长最终如此强劲，利润滚滚而来。你知道的每一个伟大的科技巨头都开始亏损。从长远来看，挑选赢家和输家说起来容易做起来难，但我们认为关键是要看他们解决了什么问题，他们的客户是谁，增长情况，以及在较小程度上看估值。市场上最具争议的股票之一是 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。该股于 2020 年直接上市，并在 2021 年的重大科技反弹期间起飞。但在 2021 年，该股开始下跌，如今已回到 12 美元以下。下来够了吗？我们认为，对于长期投资者来说。即使对于交易者来说，短期内死猫反弹的可能性也很高，但短期内，该股仍然昂贵，即使对于高增长科技公司来说也是如此，但与几个月前相比要合理得多。该公司刚刚公布了财报，增长仍在正轨上。该公司刚刚触及盈利的表面，自由现金流为正。客户数量在增长，保留率很高。简而言之，我们相信您最终可以再次开始在这里购买。</blockquote>What goes up doesn&#39;t always come down, but Palantir stock sure did<blockquote>上涨的并不总是会下跌，但 Palantir 股票确实会下跌</blockquote>Take a look at the chart of Palantir since going live on the stock market in 2020:<blockquote>看看 Palantir 自 2020 年股市上线以来的图表：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ca7504520c5dc53ff23d8f5a8d3a83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>BAD BEAT Investing<blockquote>糟糕的节拍投资</blockquote>As you can see, the stock rocketed to all-time highs in February of 2021 and traded a bit sideways in the 20s for a few months before cratering in the fall and of 2021 into 2022 with the threat of rate hikes decimating the high revenue growth, little to no earnings tech. Palantir fits this bill pretty well. But you can look at the chart of many innovation names that are seeing massive revenue growth but make no money. They all have gotten crushed in the last few months. While Palantir stock has a number of risks, we think you can finally start to buy.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，该股在 2021 年 2 月飙升至历史高点，并在 20 多点时略微横盘交易了几个月，然后在秋季和 2021 年至 2022 年期间因加息威胁而大幅下跌收入增长，几乎没有盈利技术。Palantir非常适合这一要求。但你可以看看许多创新公司的图表，它们的收入大幅增长，但却不赚钱。在过去的几个月里，他们都被压垮了。虽然 Palantir 股票存在许多风险，但我们认为您最终可以开始购买。</blockquote>The play<blockquote>这出戏</blockquote>Target entry 1: $11.95-$12.15 40% of position<blockquote>目标入场 1：11.95-12.15 美元 仓位的 40%</blockquote>Target entry 2: $10.80-$11.00 60% of position<blockquote>目标入场2：$10.80-$11.00仓位的60%</blockquote>Stop loss: $9<blockquote>止损：9美元</blockquote>Target exit: $15<blockquote>目标退出：15 美元</blockquote>Options recommendations: With premiums high in this volatile name selling puts is a strong strategy for income and/or defining entry. Consider the March 18th, 2022 $12 puts for $0.80-$0.85 in premium. Call option buying is pricey, but you can consider the August 19th, 2022 $14 strike for $1.60, then $1.20.<blockquote>期权建议：在这个波动较大的名字中，溢价很高，卖出看跌期权是一个强有力的收入和/或确定进入的策略。考虑2022年3月18日12美元看跌期权，溢价为0.80-0.85美元。购买看涨期权期权价格昂贵，但您可以考虑 2022 年 8 月 19 日 14 美元的行权价为 1.60 美元，然后是 1.20 美元。</blockquote>Discussion<blockquote>讨论</blockquote>Palantir brings in its revenue under two reporting segments. These are the government and commercial segments. Its commercial revenue stream has grown at a rapid rate over the last year, while government results and the outlook have been a bit mixed. To improve sales, Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. In our opinion, this paid off.<blockquote>Palantir 将其收入分为两个报告部门。这些是政府和商业部门。去年，其商业收入流快速增长，而政府业绩和前景却有些好坏参半。为了提高销售额，Palantir扩大了其销售团队，他们一直在努力获得新订单。在我们看来，这得到了回报。</blockquote>Performance was strong andahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $433 million, beating estimates by almost $15 million. The commercial revenue continues to grow at a great pace, rising 132% in 2021, and up 47% in Q4 vs last year. While the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, they still rose 26% from last year, and the company added a total of 34 net new customers in the quarter across both segments.<blockquote>业绩强劲，超出市场普遍预期。总收入同比增长 34%，达到 4.33 亿美元，超出预期近 1500 万美元。商业收入继续快速增长，2021年增长132%，第四季度较去年增长47%。虽然政府收入的增长有所放缓，但仍比去年增长了 26%，该公司本季度在这两个领域总共新增了 34 个净新客户。</blockquote>Now, here is the thing. The company is just barely starting to make money. That means the stock is expensive, like so many other growth tech names. More on that in a moment. While the company lost $59 million, adjusted income from operations was $124 million, while the company is free cash flow positive, seeing $104 million in the quarter. That is a big positive. For the year, adjusted free cash flow was $424 million. We love free cash flow. This is a very big positive. The company squeaked out a $0.02 adjusted EPS result. It is something.<blockquote>事情是这样的。该公司才刚刚开始赚钱。这意味着该股票价格昂贵，就像许多其他成长型科技公司一样。稍后会详细介绍。虽然该公司亏损了 5900 万美元，但调整后的营业收入为 1.24 亿美元，而该公司的自由现金流为正，本季度为 1.04 亿美元。这是一个很大的积极因素。本年度调整后自由现金流为 4.24 亿美元。我们喜欢自由现金流。这是一个非常大的积极因素。该公司调整后每股收益为 0.02 美元。这是某种东西。</blockquote>Now, as for the valuation, it is often best to look at price to sales ratios for high-growth tech. Take a look at Seeking Alpha&#39;sgradeson these measures:<blockquote>现在，至于估值，通常最好看高增长技术的市销率。看看根据这些指标寻求阿尔法的等级：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f7343d2292c60fa673f2cfd23e2ea66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>A bit laughable really, as all high-growth tech seemingly have &#39;failing&#39; grades, but the metrics are what matters. At 18X sales, the stock is still expensive, factoring in the drop in shares to under $12, and we are still pricey at 15X-16X, but this is much more reasonable compared to when the stock was in the $30s. 90X FWD EPS, well, the company is working to get to being profitable, but we do like the hidden positive of a 1.0X PEG ratio. In terms ofgrowth,these measures look a lot better with 38% FWD revenue growth expected, and 350% levered free cash flow growth going forward. These fundamentals continue to improve for the company.<blockquote>确实有点可笑，因为所有高增长科技公司似乎都有“不及格”的成绩，但指标才是最重要的。在 18 倍的销售额下，考虑到股价跌至 12 美元以下，该股票仍然很贵，而且我们在 15-16 倍时仍然很贵，但与股价在 30 美元左右时相比，这要合理得多。90 倍 FWD EPS，嗯，该公司正在努力实现盈利，但我们确实喜欢 1.0 倍 PEG 比率的隐藏优势。就增长而言，这些指标看起来要好得多，预计富卫收入增长 38%，未来杠杆自由现金流增长 350%。公司的这些基本面持续改善。</blockquote>Of course, the stock is still not without risk. First, even after the precipitous drop, shares are pricey as we mentioned. The company also could see government slash spending in tough times, though, some would argue that their technology saves the government money. We see the commercials sales growing though a recession could lead to reduced spend on tech companies like Palantir that try and help solve problems for companies.<blockquote>当然，该股仍然并非没有风险。首先，正如我们提到的，即使在急剧下降之后，股票仍然价格昂贵。该公司也可能会看到政府在困难时期削减开支，不过，一些人会认为他们的技术节省了政府资金。我们看到广告销售额在增长，尽管经济衰退可能会导致像 Palantir 这样试图帮助公司解决问题的科技公司减少支出。</blockquote>Perhaps one of the biggest issues many people have with this company is the unrelenting dilution that has been occurring. Alex Karp addressed this on the conference call:<blockquote>也许许多人对这家公司最大的问题之一是不断发生的稀释。Alex Karp 在电话会议上谈到了这一点：</blockquote>Thank you. And I really appreciate you, investors. Thanks for investing and the faith you have in us. Okay. So there&#39;s like the simple version, which I think it&#39;s like - so there&#39;s really - there&#39;s stock-based comp and there&#39;s dilution. Dilution thing, that&#39;s a red herring. We&#39;re not issuing a lot of new shares, I think it&#39;s like in the $9 million range. And so it would be a little coy of me to say that&#39;s like no issue, move on.The thing to understand about Palantir and then I want to just take this like, it&#39;s actually not the result of the DPO, it&#39;s the result of the fact that we were completely focused on building product. We had no earthly idea we were going to DPO like right before we did it. And so most companies are quite frankly built so that the - when analysts look at it, the primary customer of most software companies is not the client, it&#39;s the software analyst.So it&#39;s like we, obviously, our primary clients are our clients. which doesn&#39;t mean - and then now we&#39;re thinking about how do we expose the data in a way that people on the outside like you and professional analysts and others can look at the data and get a better sense of what&#39;s tracking, what&#39;s not tracking. But the primary source of a lot of these like questions really comes down to look, we built the company to support the U.S. warfighter primarily and then do - take dual, use it for the glory of humanity, particular humanity in the West. That was our idea. And because our primary client was not what someone had a hedge fund would think, we didn&#39;t actually think of these things from inception. And so now there&#39;s a process of normalization.You&#39;re just going to see that in going forward on these calls just like how do you normalize, how do you provide data that people are going to look at, how do you provide data that people can understand that they&#39;re used to seeing, while simultaneously staying true to what our mission is. It&#39;s like our primary clients are the people we&#39;re serving. We&#39;re in full align with them. And that&#39;s why we survive even with the nascent sales force. You can get things to double, which is in sync.So then you get to stock-based comp, which is like, okay, so - and there&#39;s 2 parts of it. Of course, IRI people kind of don&#39;t want me to do any kind of forward-looking math, but if you&#39;re smart enough to invest in talent, you&#39;re smart enough to figure out. There&#39;s essentially - there&#39;s the - how are we comping people, and there will be a normalization that will get us into a range where you would see in a software company within the next 18 months, latest 2 years. But there&#39;s essentially - and that&#39;s going to take a little time. It is going to happen, because it&#39;s also very much linked to another question, which is how do you actually run the company so it&#39;s profitable someday on a GAAP basis, not stripping out comp. And that was also within eyesight.And those are our goals for Palantir because same reason we have no debt. The same reason we have $2.3 billion on our balance sheet. This is a company built for bad times. Bad times means strong finances internally. And that means at some point, you have to be GAAP profitable. You can&#39;t be GAAP profitable if you&#39;re diluting people or - correctly your stock based comp is totally - is not in conformity with other companies.So you&#39;re seeing a normalization. This will change. It will change in the relatively near future. It will be linked to other things that we believe are important for Palantir like having a company that thrives in bad times. And we are - bad times are very good for Palantir because we build products that are robust, that are built for danger. And then the finances internally are actually built for bad times. And bad times means you have free cash flow, the free cash flow turns into GAAP profit.That means the stock-based comp has to be one that&#39;s aligned with our investors also because that&#39;s basically - it&#39;s part of a little bit longer philosophical narrative, but like if software is the only moat, then value and gross shares have to be re-evaluated in terms of their value, value only exists if you can actually get a tech node, call it, maybe something besides. And growth only exist if you build a company that is where the technology is strong enough, the business fundamentals are strong enough that the free cash flow actually turns into GAAP profitability, and that&#39;s linked to stock return. So this is a priority, both because you care, but also quite frankly, because it is the health of our company, which we care a lot about.&#34;As you can see, they acknowledge that this is an issue. We also like the mention of getting to GAAP profitability. However, we do encourage you to actually read the full transcript. The call was a bit interes<blockquote>谢谢。我真的很感谢你们，投资者。感谢您的投资和对我们的信任。好的。所以有一个简单的版本，我认为它就像——所以确实有——有基于股票的补偿和稀释。稀释的事情，这是一个转移注意力的问题。我们不会发行很多新股，我认为大概在 900 万美元左右。所以我说这不是问题，继续前进有点害羞。关于 Palantir 需要了解的是，我想这样理解，这实际上不是 DPO 的结果，而是我们完全专注于构建产品的结果。在我们这样做之前，我们根本不知道我们要去DPO。因此，坦率地说，大多数公司的建立使得——当分析师看到它时，大多数软件公司的主要客户不是客户，而是软件分析师。所以很明显，我们的主要客户就是我们的客户。这并不意味着 - 现在我们正在考虑如何以一种方式暴露数据，让像您这样的外部人员、专业分析师和其他人可以查看数据并更好地了解什么在跟踪，什么不在跟踪。但许多此类问题的主要来源实际上可以归结为，我们建立公司主要是为了支持美国战斗机，然后采取双重行动，将其用于人类的荣耀，特别是西方的人类。那是我们的主意。因为我们的主要客户不是对冲基金所认为的那样，所以我们实际上从一开始就没有想到这些事情。所以现在有一个正常化的过程。在推进这些评级时，你会看到这一点，就像你如何标准化，你如何提供人们会看到的数据，你如何提供人们可以理解他们习惯看到的数据，同时忠实于我们的使命一样。就好像我们的主要客户是我们服务的人。我们与他们完全一致。这就是为什么即使有了新生的销售队伍，我们也能生存下来。你可以让事情翻倍，这是同步的。然后你就可以看到基于股票的薪酬，这就像，好吧，所以——它有两个部分。当然，IRI的人不想让我做任何前瞻性的数学，但如果你足够聪明去投资人才，你就足够聪明去想办法。本质上——有——我们是如何匹配人的，将会有一个标准化，这将使我们进入一个你会在未来18个月内，最迟2年内在软件公司看到的范围。但本质上是有的——这需要一点时间。这种情况将会发生，因为它还与另一个问题密切相关，即您实际上如何运营公司，以便有一天在 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，而不是剥夺薪酬。这也在视线范围内。这些是我们对 Palantir 的目标，因为同样的原因我们没有债务。这也是我们资产负债表上有23亿美元的原因。这是一家为糟糕时期而建的公司。糟糕的时期意味着内部财务状况强劲。这意味着在某个时候，你必须按照公认会计准则盈利。如果你在稀释员工，或者——正确地说，你的股票薪酬完全——与其他公司不一致，你就不可能在公认会计准则下盈利。所以你看到了正常化。这会改变的。它将在相对不久的将来发生变化。它将与我们认为对 Palantir 很重要的其他事情联系起来，例如拥有一家在困难时期蓬勃发展的公司。我们也是——糟糕的时期对 Palantir 来说非常好，因为我们制造的产品非常强大，是为危险而制造的。然后内部的财务实际上是为糟糕的时期而建立的。糟糕的时期意味着你有自由现金流，自由现金流转化为公认会计准则利润。这意味着基于股票的薪酬必须与我们的投资者保持一致，因为这基本上是一个稍微长一点的哲学叙事的一部分，但就像如果软件是唯一的护城河一样，那么价值和总股本必须根据它们的价值重新评估，只有当你实际上可以获得一个技术节点，看涨期权它，也许除此之外的东西时，价值才会存在。只有当你建立的公司技术足够强大，业务基本面足够强大，自由现金流实际上转化为 GAAP 盈利能力，并且这与股票回报挂钩时，增长才会存在。因此，这是一个优先事项，不仅因为您关心，而且坦率地说，因为这是我们公司的健康，我们非常关心。”如您所见，他们承认这是一个问题。我们还喜欢提到实现 GAAP 盈利。然而，我们鼓励你实际阅读完整的文字记录。看涨期权有点兴趣</blockquote>Take home<blockquote>带回家</blockquote>Shares have been crushed. But the company operates with no debt and free cash flow. The dilution issue is a major annoyance for shareholders and is a risk factor for valuation. Despite falling to levels not seen since 2020, the stock remains expensive, but nowhere near where it was valued a year ago. With the growth the company is displaying and what appears to be a recognition of the need to get to profitability, we like scaling in here.<blockquote>股价已被压垮。但该公司没有债务，有自由现金流。稀释问题是股东的一大烦恼，也是估值的一个风险因素。尽管跌至 2020 年以来的最高水平，但该股仍然昂贵，但远低于一年前的估值。随着公司表现出的增长以及对实现盈利需求的认可，我们喜欢在这里扩大规模。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Great Reset<blockquote>Palantir：大重置</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Great Reset<blockquote>Palantir：大重置</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-02-18 10:35\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>After its direct listing shares skyrocketed to nearly $40, and have now returned to sub-$12 at the time of this writing.</li><li>There is a host of reasons why the stock is still expensive.</li><li>Revenue growth at 30% per year through 2025.</li><li>There is some residual value in contracts booked with Palantir that are yet to be delivered that will lead to future revenue.</li><li>Free cash flow positive, and scratching the surface of profitability.</li></ul>There is no doubt about it, technology stocks, especially those that are potential game-changing names, are often extremely expensive. For years many of these stocks will lose money but invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. Sometimes that growth fades and the company never really transforms the world like it set out to do. Then there are times where for years the company loses money, but the internal metrics improve year after year and growth eventually is so strong profits roll in. Every great tech giant you know started out losing money. Picking winners and losers is easier said than done in the long term, but the key in our opinion is to look at what problems they solve, who their customers are, the growth, and to a lesser degree, valuation. One of the most controversial stocks in the market is Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock direct listed in 2020 and took off during the major tech rally into 2021. But in 2021, the stock began to fade, and today is back under $12. Has it come down enough? We think so, for the long-term investor. Even for traders, the potential of a dead cat bounce near-term is highly likely, but in the near-term, the stock is still expensive, even for high growth tech, but is much more reasonable compared to a few months ago. Thecompany just reported earnings, and the growth remains on track. The company is scratching the surface of profitability and is free cash flow positive. Customer count is growing and retention is strong. In short, we believe you can finally start buying here again.<blockquote><ul><li>直接上市后，股价飙升至近 40 美元，截至撰写本文时已回到 12 美元以下。</li><li>该股仍然昂贵的原因有很多。</li><li>到 2025 年，收入每年增长 30%。</li><li>与Palantir签订的合同中有一些尚未交付的剩余价值，这将导致未来的收入。</li><li>自由现金流为正，并触及盈利的表面。</li></ul>毫无疑问，科技股，尤其是那些潜在的改变游戏规则的股票，往往极其昂贵。多年来，这些股票中的许多都会亏损，但在收入大幅增长的同时，大量投资于它们的增长。有时这种增长会消退，公司也从未像它计划的那样真正改变世界。有时公司多年来一直亏损，但内部指标逐年改善，增长最终如此强劲，利润滚滚而来。你知道的每一个伟大的科技巨头都开始亏损。从长远来看，挑选赢家和输家说起来容易做起来难，但我们认为关键是要看他们解决了什么问题，他们的客户是谁，增长情况，以及在较小程度上看估值。市场上最具争议的股票之一是 Palantir Technologies (PLTR)。该股于 2020 年直接上市，并在 2021 年的重大科技反弹期间起飞。但在 2021 年，该股开始下跌，如今已回到 12 美元以下。下来够了吗？我们认为，对于长期投资者来说。即使对于交易者来说，短期内死猫反弹的可能性也很高，但短期内，该股仍然昂贵，即使对于高增长科技公司来说也是如此，但与几个月前相比要合理得多。该公司刚刚公布了财报，增长仍在正轨上。该公司刚刚触及盈利的表面，自由现金流为正。客户数量在增长，保留率很高。简而言之，我们相信您最终可以再次开始在这里购买。</blockquote>What goes up doesn&#39;t always come down, but Palantir stock sure did<blockquote>上涨的并不总是会下跌，但 Palantir 股票确实会下跌</blockquote>Take a look at the chart of Palantir since going live on the stock market in 2020:<blockquote>看看 Palantir 自 2020 年股市上线以来的图表：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46ca7504520c5dc53ff23d8f5a8d3a83\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>BAD BEAT Investing<blockquote>糟糕的节拍投资</blockquote>As you can see, the stock rocketed to all-time highs in February of 2021 and traded a bit sideways in the 20s for a few months before cratering in the fall and of 2021 into 2022 with the threat of rate hikes decimating the high revenue growth, little to no earnings tech. Palantir fits this bill pretty well. But you can look at the chart of many innovation names that are seeing massive revenue growth but make no money. They all have gotten crushed in the last few months. While Palantir stock has a number of risks, we think you can finally start to buy.<blockquote>正如您所看到的，该股在 2021 年 2 月飙升至历史高点，并在 20 多点时略微横盘交易了几个月，然后在秋季和 2021 年至 2022 年期间因加息威胁而大幅下跌收入增长，几乎没有盈利技术。Palantir非常适合这一要求。但你可以看看许多创新公司的图表，它们的收入大幅增长，但却不赚钱。在过去的几个月里，他们都被压垮了。虽然 Palantir 股票存在许多风险，但我们认为您最终可以开始购买。</blockquote>The play<blockquote>这出戏</blockquote>Target entry 1: $11.95-$12.15 40% of position<blockquote>目标入场 1：11.95-12.15 美元 仓位的 40%</blockquote>Target entry 2: $10.80-$11.00 60% of position<blockquote>目标入场2：$10.80-$11.00仓位的60%</blockquote>Stop loss: $9<blockquote>止损：9美元</blockquote>Target exit: $15<blockquote>目标退出：15 美元</blockquote>Options recommendations: With premiums high in this volatile name selling puts is a strong strategy for income and/or defining entry. Consider the March 18th, 2022 $12 puts for $0.80-$0.85 in premium. Call option buying is pricey, but you can consider the August 19th, 2022 $14 strike for $1.60, then $1.20.<blockquote>期权建议：在这个波动较大的名字中，溢价很高，卖出看跌期权是一个强有力的收入和/或确定进入的策略。考虑2022年3月18日12美元看跌期权，溢价为0.80-0.85美元。购买看涨期权期权价格昂贵，但您可以考虑 2022 年 8 月 19 日 14 美元的行权价为 1.60 美元，然后是 1.20 美元。</blockquote>Discussion<blockquote>讨论</blockquote>Palantir brings in its revenue under two reporting segments. These are the government and commercial segments. Its commercial revenue stream has grown at a rapid rate over the last year, while government results and the outlook have been a bit mixed. To improve sales, Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. In our opinion, this paid off.<blockquote>Palantir 将其收入分为两个报告部门。这些是政府和商业部门。去年，其商业收入流快速增长，而政府业绩和前景却有些好坏参半。为了提高销售额，Palantir扩大了其销售团队，他们一直在努力获得新订单。在我们看来，这得到了回报。</blockquote>Performance was strong andahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $433 million, beating estimates by almost $15 million. The commercial revenue continues to grow at a great pace, rising 132% in 2021, and up 47% in Q4 vs last year. While the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, they still rose 26% from last year, and the company added a total of 34 net new customers in the quarter across both segments.<blockquote>业绩强劲，超出市场普遍预期。总收入同比增长 34%，达到 4.33 亿美元，超出预期近 1500 万美元。商业收入继续快速增长，2021年增长132%，第四季度较去年增长47%。虽然政府收入的增长有所放缓，但仍比去年增长了 26%，该公司本季度在这两个领域总共新增了 34 个净新客户。</blockquote>Now, here is the thing. The company is just barely starting to make money. That means the stock is expensive, like so many other growth tech names. More on that in a moment. While the company lost $59 million, adjusted income from operations was $124 million, while the company is free cash flow positive, seeing $104 million in the quarter. That is a big positive. For the year, adjusted free cash flow was $424 million. We love free cash flow. This is a very big positive. The company squeaked out a $0.02 adjusted EPS result. It is something.<blockquote>事情是这样的。该公司才刚刚开始赚钱。这意味着该股票价格昂贵，就像许多其他成长型科技公司一样。稍后会详细介绍。虽然该公司亏损了 5900 万美元，但调整后的营业收入为 1.24 亿美元，而该公司的自由现金流为正，本季度为 1.04 亿美元。这是一个很大的积极因素。本年度调整后自由现金流为 4.24 亿美元。我们喜欢自由现金流。这是一个非常大的积极因素。该公司调整后每股收益为 0.02 美元。这是某种东西。</blockquote>Now, as for the valuation, it is often best to look at price to sales ratios for high-growth tech. Take a look at Seeking Alpha&#39;sgradeson these measures:<blockquote>现在，至于估值，通常最好看高增长技术的市销率。看看根据这些指标寻求阿尔法的等级：</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f7343d2292c60fa673f2cfd23e2ea66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"574\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Seeking Alpha<blockquote>寻求阿尔法</blockquote>A bit laughable really, as all high-growth tech seemingly have &#39;failing&#39; grades, but the metrics are what matters. At 18X sales, the stock is still expensive, factoring in the drop in shares to under $12, and we are still pricey at 15X-16X, but this is much more reasonable compared to when the stock was in the $30s. 90X FWD EPS, well, the company is working to get to being profitable, but we do like the hidden positive of a 1.0X PEG ratio. In terms ofgrowth,these measures look a lot better with 38% FWD revenue growth expected, and 350% levered free cash flow growth going forward. These fundamentals continue to improve for the company.<blockquote>确实有点可笑，因为所有高增长科技公司似乎都有“不及格”的成绩，但指标才是最重要的。在 18 倍的销售额下，考虑到股价跌至 12 美元以下，该股票仍然很贵，而且我们在 15-16 倍时仍然很贵，但与股价在 30 美元左右时相比，这要合理得多。90 倍 FWD EPS，嗯，该公司正在努力实现盈利，但我们确实喜欢 1.0 倍 PEG 比率的隐藏优势。就增长而言，这些指标看起来要好得多，预计富卫收入增长 38%，未来杠杆自由现金流增长 350%。公司的这些基本面持续改善。</blockquote>Of course, the stock is still not without risk. First, even after the precipitous drop, shares are pricey as we mentioned. The company also could see government slash spending in tough times, though, some would argue that their technology saves the government money. We see the commercials sales growing though a recession could lead to reduced spend on tech companies like Palantir that try and help solve problems for companies.<blockquote>当然，该股仍然并非没有风险。首先，正如我们提到的，即使在急剧下降之后，股票仍然价格昂贵。该公司也可能会看到政府在困难时期削减开支，不过，一些人会认为他们的技术节省了政府资金。我们看到广告销售额在增长，尽管经济衰退可能会导致像 Palantir 这样试图帮助公司解决问题的科技公司减少支出。</blockquote>Perhaps one of the biggest issues many people have with this company is the unrelenting dilution that has been occurring. Alex Karp addressed this on the conference call:<blockquote>也许许多人对这家公司最大的问题之一是不断发生的稀释。Alex Karp 在电话会议上谈到了这一点：</blockquote>Thank you. And I really appreciate you, investors. Thanks for investing and the faith you have in us. Okay. So there&#39;s like the simple version, which I think it&#39;s like - so there&#39;s really - there&#39;s stock-based comp and there&#39;s dilution. Dilution thing, that&#39;s a red herring. We&#39;re not issuing a lot of new shares, I think it&#39;s like in the $9 million range. And so it would be a little coy of me to say that&#39;s like no issue, move on.The thing to understand about Palantir and then I want to just take this like, it&#39;s actually not the result of the DPO, it&#39;s the result of the fact that we were completely focused on building product. We had no earthly idea we were going to DPO like right before we did it. And so most companies are quite frankly built so that the - when analysts look at it, the primary customer of most software companies is not the client, it&#39;s the software analyst.So it&#39;s like we, obviously, our primary clients are our clients. which doesn&#39;t mean - and then now we&#39;re thinking about how do we expose the data in a way that people on the outside like you and professional analysts and others can look at the data and get a better sense of what&#39;s tracking, what&#39;s not tracking. But the primary source of a lot of these like questions really comes down to look, we built the company to support the U.S. warfighter primarily and then do - take dual, use it for the glory of humanity, particular humanity in the West. That was our idea. And because our primary client was not what someone had a hedge fund would think, we didn&#39;t actually think of these things from inception. And so now there&#39;s a process of normalization.You&#39;re just going to see that in going forward on these calls just like how do you normalize, how do you provide data that people are going to look at, how do you provide data that people can understand that they&#39;re used to seeing, while simultaneously staying true to what our mission is. It&#39;s like our primary clients are the people we&#39;re serving. We&#39;re in full align with them. And that&#39;s why we survive even with the nascent sales force. You can get things to double, which is in sync.So then you get to stock-based comp, which is like, okay, so - and there&#39;s 2 parts of it. Of course, IRI people kind of don&#39;t want me to do any kind of forward-looking math, but if you&#39;re smart enough to invest in talent, you&#39;re smart enough to figure out. There&#39;s essentially - there&#39;s the - how are we comping people, and there will be a normalization that will get us into a range where you would see in a software company within the next 18 months, latest 2 years. But there&#39;s essentially - and that&#39;s going to take a little time. It is going to happen, because it&#39;s also very much linked to another question, which is how do you actually run the company so it&#39;s profitable someday on a GAAP basis, not stripping out comp. And that was also within eyesight.And those are our goals for Palantir because same reason we have no debt. The same reason we have $2.3 billion on our balance sheet. This is a company built for bad times. Bad times means strong finances internally. And that means at some point, you have to be GAAP profitable. You can&#39;t be GAAP profitable if you&#39;re diluting people or - correctly your stock based comp is totally - is not in conformity with other companies.So you&#39;re seeing a normalization. This will change. It will change in the relatively near future. It will be linked to other things that we believe are important for Palantir like having a company that thrives in bad times. And we are - bad times are very good for Palantir because we build products that are robust, that are built for danger. And then the finances internally are actually built for bad times. And bad times means you have free cash flow, the free cash flow turns into GAAP profit.That means the stock-based comp has to be one that&#39;s aligned with our investors also because that&#39;s basically - it&#39;s part of a little bit longer philosophical narrative, but like if software is the only moat, then value and gross shares have to be re-evaluated in terms of their value, value only exists if you can actually get a tech node, call it, maybe something besides. And growth only exist if you build a company that is where the technology is strong enough, the business fundamentals are strong enough that the free cash flow actually turns into GAAP profitability, and that&#39;s linked to stock return. So this is a priority, both because you care, but also quite frankly, because it is the health of our company, which we care a lot about.&#34;As you can see, they acknowledge that this is an issue. We also like the mention of getting to GAAP profitability. However, we do encourage you to actually read the full transcript. The call was a bit interes<blockquote>谢谢。我真的很感谢你们，投资者。感谢您的投资和对我们的信任。好的。所以有一个简单的版本，我认为它就像——所以确实有——有基于股票的补偿和稀释。稀释的事情，这是一个转移注意力的问题。我们不会发行很多新股，我认为大概在 900 万美元左右。所以我说这不是问题，继续前进有点害羞。关于 Palantir 需要了解的是，我想这样理解，这实际上不是 DPO 的结果，而是我们完全专注于构建产品的结果。在我们这样做之前，我们根本不知道我们要去DPO。因此，坦率地说，大多数公司的建立使得——当分析师看到它时，大多数软件公司的主要客户不是客户，而是软件分析师。所以很明显，我们的主要客户就是我们的客户。这并不意味着 - 现在我们正在考虑如何以一种方式暴露数据，让像您这样的外部人员、专业分析师和其他人可以查看数据并更好地了解什么在跟踪，什么不在跟踪。但许多此类问题的主要来源实际上可以归结为，我们建立公司主要是为了支持美国战斗机，然后采取双重行动，将其用于人类的荣耀，特别是西方的人类。那是我们的主意。因为我们的主要客户不是对冲基金所认为的那样，所以我们实际上从一开始就没有想到这些事情。所以现在有一个正常化的过程。在推进这些评级时，你会看到这一点，就像你如何标准化，你如何提供人们会看到的数据，你如何提供人们可以理解他们习惯看到的数据，同时忠实于我们的使命一样。就好像我们的主要客户是我们服务的人。我们与他们完全一致。这就是为什么即使有了新生的销售队伍，我们也能生存下来。你可以让事情翻倍，这是同步的。然后你就可以看到基于股票的薪酬，这就像，好吧，所以——它有两个部分。当然，IRI的人不想让我做任何前瞻性的数学，但如果你足够聪明去投资人才，你就足够聪明去想办法。本质上——有——我们是如何匹配人的，将会有一个标准化，这将使我们进入一个你会在未来18个月内，最迟2年内在软件公司看到的范围。但本质上是有的——这需要一点时间。这种情况将会发生，因为它还与另一个问题密切相关，即您实际上如何运营公司，以便有一天在 GAAP 基础上实现盈利，而不是剥夺薪酬。这也在视线范围内。这些是我们对 Palantir 的目标，因为同样的原因我们没有债务。这也是我们资产负债表上有23亿美元的原因。这是一家为糟糕时期而建的公司。糟糕的时期意味着内部财务状况强劲。这意味着在某个时候，你必须按照公认会计准则盈利。如果你在稀释员工，或者——正确地说，你的股票薪酬完全——与其他公司不一致，你就不可能在公认会计准则下盈利。所以你看到了正常化。这会改变的。它将在相对不久的将来发生变化。它将与我们认为对 Palantir 很重要的其他事情联系起来，例如拥有一家在困难时期蓬勃发展的公司。我们也是——糟糕的时期对 Palantir 来说非常好，因为我们制造的产品非常强大，是为危险而制造的。然后内部的财务实际上是为糟糕的时期而建立的。糟糕的时期意味着你有自由现金流，自由现金流转化为公认会计准则利润。这意味着基于股票的薪酬必须与我们的投资者保持一致，因为这基本上是一个稍微长一点的哲学叙事的一部分，但就像如果软件是唯一的护城河一样，那么价值和总股本必须根据它们的价值重新评估，只有当你实际上可以获得一个技术节点，看涨期权它，也许除此之外的东西时，价值才会存在。只有当你建立的公司技术足够强大，业务基本面足够强大，自由现金流实际上转化为 GAAP 盈利能力，并且这与股票回报挂钩时，增长才会存在。因此，这是一个优先事项，不仅因为您关心，而且坦率地说，因为这是我们公司的健康，我们非常关心。”如您所见，他们承认这是一个问题。我们还喜欢提到实现 GAAP 盈利。然而，我们鼓励你实际阅读完整的文字记录。看涨期权有点兴趣</blockquote>Take home<blockquote>带回家</blockquote>Shares have been crushed. But the company operates with no debt and free cash flow. The dilution issue is a major annoyance for shareholders and is a risk factor for valuation. Despite falling to levels not seen since 2020, the stock remains expensive, but nowhere near where it was valued a year ago. With the growth the company is displaying and what appears to be a recognition of the need to get to profitability, we like scaling in here.<blockquote>股价已被压垮。但该公司没有债务，有自由现金流。稀释问题是股东的一大烦恼，也是估值的一个风险因素。尽管跌至 2020 年以来的最高水平，但该股仍然昂贵，但远低于一年前的估值。随着公司表现出的增长以及对实现盈利需求的认可，我们喜欢在这里扩大规模。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4487929-palantir-the-great-reset\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4487929-palantir-the-great-reset","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195946210","content_text":"SummaryAfter its direct listing shares skyrocketed to nearly $40, and have now returned to sub-$12 at the time of this writing.There is a host of reasons why the stock is still expensive.Revenue growth at 30% per year through 2025.There is some residual value in contracts booked with Palantir that are yet to be delivered that will lead to future revenue.Free cash flow positive, and scratching the surface of profitability.There is no doubt about it, technology stocks, especially those that are potential game-changing names, are often extremely expensive. For years many of these stocks will lose money but invest heavily in their growth while seeing revenues increase dramatically. Sometimes that growth fades and the company never really transforms the world like it set out to do. Then there are times where for years the company loses money, but the internal metrics improve year after year and growth eventually is so strong profits roll in. Every great tech giant you know started out losing money. Picking winners and losers is easier said than done in the long term, but the key in our opinion is to look at what problems they solve, who their customers are, the growth, and to a lesser degree, valuation. One of the most controversial stocks in the market is Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock direct listed in 2020 and took off during the major tech rally into 2021. But in 2021, the stock began to fade, and today is back under $12. Has it come down enough? We think so, for the long-term investor. Even for traders, the potential of a dead cat bounce near-term is highly likely, but in the near-term, the stock is still expensive, even for high growth tech, but is much more reasonable compared to a few months ago. Thecompany just reported earnings, and the growth remains on track. The company is scratching the surface of profitability and is free cash flow positive. Customer count is growing and retention is strong. In short, we believe you can finally start buying here again.What goes up doesn't always come down, but Palantir stock sure didTake a look at the chart of Palantir since going live on the stock market in 2020:BAD BEAT InvestingAs you can see, the stock rocketed to all-time highs in February of 2021 and traded a bit sideways in the 20s for a few months before cratering in the fall and of 2021 into 2022 with the threat of rate hikes decimating the high revenue growth, little to no earnings tech. Palantir fits this bill pretty well. But you can look at the chart of many innovation names that are seeing massive revenue growth but make no money. They all have gotten crushed in the last few months. While Palantir stock has a number of risks, we think you can finally start to buy.The playTarget entry 1: $11.95-$12.15 40% of positionTarget entry 2: $10.80-$11.00 60% of positionStop loss: $9Target exit: $15Options recommendations: With premiums high in this volatile name selling puts is a strong strategy for income and/or defining entry. Consider the March 18th, 2022 $12 puts for $0.80-$0.85 in premium. Call option buying is pricey, but you can consider the August 19th, 2022 $14 strike for $1.60, then $1.20.DiscussionPalantir brings in its revenue under two reporting segments. These are the government and commercial segments. Its commercial revenue stream has grown at a rapid rate over the last year, while government results and the outlook have been a bit mixed. To improve sales, Palantir has expanded its sales team and they have been working to secure new orders. In our opinion, this paid off.Performance was strong andahead of consensus estimates. Total revenue grew 34% year-over-year to $433 million, beating estimates by almost $15 million. The commercial revenue continues to grow at a great pace, rising 132% in 2021, and up 47% in Q4 vs last year. While the Government revenues have slowed their growth somewhat, they still rose 26% from last year, and the company added a total of 34 net new customers in the quarter across both segments.Now, here is the thing. The company is just barely starting to make money. That means the stock is expensive, like so many other growth tech names. More on that in a moment. While the company lost $59 million, adjusted income from operations was $124 million, while the company is free cash flow positive, seeing $104 million in the quarter. That is a big positive. For the year, adjusted free cash flow was $424 million. We love free cash flow. This is a very big positive. The company squeaked out a $0.02 adjusted EPS result. It is something.Now, as for the valuation, it is often best to look at price to sales ratios for high-growth tech. Take a look at Seeking Alpha'sgradeson these measures:Seeking AlphaA bit laughable really, as all high-growth tech seemingly have 'failing' grades, but the metrics are what matters. At 18X sales, the stock is still expensive, factoring in the drop in shares to under $12, and we are still pricey at 15X-16X, but this is much more reasonable compared to when the stock was in the $30s. 90X FWD EPS, well, the company is working to get to being profitable, but we do like the hidden positive of a 1.0X PEG ratio. In terms ofgrowth,these measures look a lot better with 38% FWD revenue growth expected, and 350% levered free cash flow growth going forward. These fundamentals continue to improve for the company.Of course, the stock is still not without risk. First, even after the precipitous drop, shares are pricey as we mentioned. The company also could see government slash spending in tough times, though, some would argue that their technology saves the government money. We see the commercials sales growing though a recession could lead to reduced spend on tech companies like Palantir that try and help solve problems for companies.Perhaps one of the biggest issues many people have with this company is the unrelenting dilution that has been occurring. Alex Karp addressed this on the conference call:Thank you. And I really appreciate you, investors. Thanks for investing and the faith you have in us. Okay. So there's like the simple version, which I think it's like - so there's really - there's stock-based comp and there's dilution. Dilution thing, that's a red herring. We're not issuing a lot of new shares, I think it's like in the $9 million range. And so it would be a little coy of me to say that's like no issue, move on.The thing to understand about Palantir and then I want to just take this like, it's actually not the result of the DPO, it's the result of the fact that we were completely focused on building product. We had no earthly idea we were going to DPO like right before we did it. And so most companies are quite frankly built so that the - when analysts look at it, the primary customer of most software companies is not the client, it's the software analyst.So it's like we, obviously, our primary clients are our clients. which doesn't mean - and then now we're thinking about how do we expose the data in a way that people on the outside like you and professional analysts and others can look at the data and get a better sense of what's tracking, what's not tracking. But the primary source of a lot of these like questions really comes down to look, we built the company to support the U.S. warfighter primarily and then do - take dual, use it for the glory of humanity, particular humanity in the West. That was our idea. And because our primary client was not what someone had a hedge fund would think, we didn't actually think of these things from inception. And so now there's a process of normalization.You're just going to see that in going forward on these calls just like how do you normalize, how do you provide data that people are going to look at, how do you provide data that people can understand that they're used to seeing, while simultaneously staying true to what our mission is. It's like our primary clients are the people we're serving. We're in full align with them. And that's why we survive even with the nascent sales force. You can get things to double, which is in sync.So then you get to stock-based comp, which is like, okay, so - and there's 2 parts of it. Of course, IRI people kind of don't want me to do any kind of forward-looking math, but if you're smart enough to invest in talent, you're smart enough to figure out. There's essentially - there's the - how are we comping people, and there will be a normalization that will get us into a range where you would see in a software company within the next 18 months, latest 2 years. But there's essentially - and that's going to take a little time. It is going to happen, because it's also very much linked to another question, which is how do you actually run the company so it's profitable someday on a GAAP basis, not stripping out comp. And that was also within eyesight.And those are our goals for Palantir because same reason we have no debt. The same reason we have $2.3 billion on our balance sheet. This is a company built for bad times. Bad times means strong finances internally. And that means at some point, you have to be GAAP profitable. You can't be GAAP profitable if you're diluting people or - correctly your stock based comp is totally - is not in conformity with other companies.So you're seeing a normalization. This will change. It will change in the relatively near future. It will be linked to other things that we believe are important for Palantir like having a company that thrives in bad times. And we are - bad times are very good for Palantir because we build products that are robust, that are built for danger. And then the finances internally are actually built for bad times. And bad times means you have free cash flow, the free cash flow turns into GAAP profit.That means the stock-based comp has to be one that's aligned with our investors also because that's basically - it's part of a little bit longer philosophical narrative, but like if software is the only moat, then value and gross shares have to be re-evaluated in terms of their value, value only exists if you can actually get a tech node, call it, maybe something besides. And growth only exist if you build a company that is where the technology is strong enough, the business fundamentals are strong enough that the free cash flow actually turns into GAAP profitability, and that's linked to stock return. So this is a priority, both because you care, but also quite frankly, because it is the health of our company, which we care a lot about.\"As you can see, they acknowledge that this is an issue. We also like the mention of getting to GAAP profitability. However, we do encourage you to actually read the full transcript. The call was a bit interesting. There was not a lot of talk about financials and quite a bit of conjecture on the call. A lot of words, and not a lot of substance. This gives us a little bit more risk in addition to what was mentioned above.Take homeShares have been crushed. But the company operates with no debt and free cash flow. The dilution issue is a major annoyance for shareholders and is a risk factor for valuation. Despite falling to levels not seen since 2020, the stock remains expensive, but nowhere near where it was valued a year ago. With the growth the company is displaying and what appears to be a recognition of the need to get to profitability, we like scaling in here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4908,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/638816244"}