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2022-01-25

Stock-market investors can't count on the'Fed put' -- Why policy makers aren't seen rushing to rescue<blockquote>股市投资者不能指望“美联储看跌期权”——为什么政策制定者没有急于救援</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":639065185,"tweetId":"639065185","gmtCreate":1643089155176,"gmtModify":1643089155288,"author":{"id":3582538202393061,"idStr":"3582538202393061","authorId":3582538202393061,"authorIdStr":"3582538202393061","name":"Zivcheah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52882be9b594ebb5b5933851792d286","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>O</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>O</body></html>","text":"O","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639065185","repostId":2206096886,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206096886","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643082961,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206096886?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-25 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-market investors can't count on the'Fed put' -- Why policy makers aren't seen rushing to rescue<blockquote>股市投资者不能指望“美联储看跌期权”——为什么政策制定者没有急于救援</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206096886","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"But pushing back against half-point March hike could stabilize risk sentiment: RenMac's DuttaStefani","content":"<html><head></head><body>But pushing back against half-point March hike could stabilize risk sentiment: RenMac&#39;s Dutta<blockquote><html><head></head><body>但RenMac的Dutta表示，抵制3月份加息半个百分点可能会稳定风险情绪</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f526f026cf32da454262b4f4af7703\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Stefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images<blockquote>史蒂芬妮·雷诺兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>The Federal Reserve is widely seen as unlikely to ride to the rescue as the stock market stumbles to begin 2022.<blockquote>人们普遍认为，随着股市在2022年伊始跌跌撞撞，美联储不太可能出手救援。</blockquote>Indeed, some market watchers blamed Monday&#39;s initial broad stock-market downturn which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge more than 1,000 points and the S&amp;P 500 slide 4% at its session low partly due to expectations the Fed won&#39;t snap back into hand-holding mode when policy makers meet this week, though equities subsequently roared back to end the day higher in a breakneck intraday reversal.<blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士将周一股市最初的普遍低迷归咎于道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌超过1,000点，标普500指数在盘中低点下跌4%，部分原因是人们预期美联储不会重新采取snap。政策制定者本周开会时采取了持有模式，尽管股市随后大幅反弹，以盘中急速逆转收盘走高。</blockquote>Stocks are still down sharply to kick off the year, however, with the Nasdaq Composite down more than 14% from its November high to trade in correction territory, while the S&amp;P 500 has shed 7.5% in the month to date and the Dow has lost 5.4%.<blockquote>然而，年初股市仍大幅下跌，纳斯达克综合指数较11月高点下跌超过14%，进入回调区域，而标普500本月迄今已下跌7.5%，道琼斯指数已下跌5.4%。</blockquote>Many analysts and investors have written off, at least temporarily, what&#39;s known as the &#34;Fed put,&#34; arguing that surging inflation means policy makers will be unable to deviate from plans to deliver a series of rate increases and otherwise tighten monetary policy in the months ahead.<blockquote>许多分析师和投资者已经至少暂时取消了所谓的“美联储看跌期权”，认为通胀飙升意味着政策制定者将无法偏离在未来几个月内实施一系列加息或收紧货币政策的计划。</blockquote>The central bank&#39;s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee expected this week to lay the groundwork for a rate increase at its March meeting and to further discuss how fast it will shrink its balance sheet once it is ready to do so.<blockquote>美联储负责政策制定的联邦公开市场委员会预计本周将在3月份的会议上为加息奠定基础，并进一步讨论一旦准备好缩表的速度。</blockquote>Investors have talked of a figurative Fed put since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.<blockquote>至少自1987年10月股市崩盘促使艾伦·格林斯潘领导的央行降低利率以来，投资者就一直在谈论象征性的美联储看跌期权。实际看跌期权是一种金融衍生品，它赋予持有人权利但没有义务以设定水平（称为执行价格）出售标的资产，作为应对市场下跌的保险政策。</blockquote>&#34;Last week&#39;s price action reflected the fact that the market is in the midst of a &#39;Tightening Tantrum,&#39;&#34; wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note. &#34;And just like the &#39;Taper Tantrum&#39; from 2013, this Tightening Tantrum won&#39;t end until the Fed, as it did back then, reassures the market that it won&#39;t tighten too quickly,&#34; he said, referring to a bout of market volatility that followed a spring 2013 signal that the central bank was preparing to wind down the asset-buying program put in place during the financial crisis.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye在周一的一份报告中写道：“上周的价格走势反映了市场正处于‘紧缩情绪’之中。”他表示：“就像2013年的‘缩减恐慌’一样，除非美联储像当时那样向市场保证不会过快收紧，否则这种紧缩恐慌不会结束。”2013年春季有信号表明央行准备逐步结束金融危机期间实施的资产购买计划，随后市场出现波动。</blockquote>The difference, however, is that unlike 2013, the economy faces an inflation problem, Essaye said, with the Fed under enormous political pressure to get surging prices under control.<blockquote>然而，Essaye表示，不同的是，与2013年不同，经济面临通胀问题，美联储面临着巨大的政治压力，需要控制飙升的物价。</blockquote>&#34;Practically speaking, that means the Fed will allow stocks to decline more before providing rhetorical comfort then they did in 2013. Put another way, as we and others have said, the &#39;strike price&#39; on the Fed put is lower than it used to be, and it&#39;slower than where the S&amp;P 500 is trading right now,&#34; he wrote, ahead of Monday&#39;s market open.<blockquote>“实际上，这意味着美联储将允许股市进一步下跌，然后再提供比2013年更多的口头安慰。换句话说，正如我们和其他人所说，美联储看跌期权的‘执行价格’低于过去，而且“比标普500目前的交易速度慢，”他在周一开盘前写道。</blockquote>More recently, stocks tanked in December 2018 as the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with a tightening cycle. The Fed in January 2019 signaled an abrupt change in course that led to rate cuts later in the year. Equities regained their footing to continue a record bull-market march that ended only with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year later.<blockquote>最近，随着美联储推进紧缩周期，股市在2018年12月暴跌。美联储在2019年1月发出了突然改变方针的信号，导致今年晚些时候降息。股市重新站稳脚跟，继续创纪录的牛市三月，直到一年多后新冠肺炎疫情爆发才结束。</blockquote>But this time around, not only is inflation running at a roughly 40-year high, unemployment sits at 3.9% and the economy appears relatively resilient thanks to solid consumer balance sheets, analysts said.<blockquote>但分析师表示，这一次，不仅通胀处于约40年来的高位，失业率也达到3.9%，而且由于消费者资产负债表稳健，经济似乎相对有弹性。</blockquote>&#34;Put another way: until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed will simply not be convinced that raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet in 2022 will more likely cause a recession rather than a soft landing,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Monday note.<blockquote>“换句话说：在我们进一步抛售风险资产之前，美联储根本不会相信2022年加息和缩小资产负债表规模更有可能导致经济衰退而不是软着陆，”DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一的一份报告中表示。</blockquote>Still, the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday could still serve to stabilize markets, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, in a note, arguing that investors may have gotten too aggressive in penciling in the pace of rate increases.<blockquote>Renaissance Macro Research美国经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)在一份报告中表示，尽管如此，周三美联储会议的结果仍可能有助于稳定市场，他认为投资者在预测加息步伐时可能过于激进。</blockquote>Fed-funds futures show traders see a roughly 5% chance of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, hike, rather than a 25 basis point move, by the Fed at the March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Eurodollar futures, meanwhile, reflected a roughly 50-50 chance of a half-point move, Dutta noted, adding that history shows the Fed is much more likely to end a rate cycle with 50 basis point hike than it is to to kick off with an outsize move.<blockquote>根据CME FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货显示，交易员认为美联储在3月份会议上加息50个基点（即0.5个百分点）的可能性约为5%，而不是25个基点。与此同时，杜塔指出，欧洲美元期货上涨半个基点的可能性约为50-50，并补充说，历史表明，美联储以加息50个基点结束利率周期的可能性比以加息50个基点开始利率周期的可能性要大得多。一个巨大的举动。</blockquote>Given the current pricing in markets, &#34;an indication that the Fed will not be starting with a 50 basis point rate hike might be enough to provide a floor under risk sentiment,&#34; Dutta wrote.<blockquote>杜塔写道，鉴于目前的市场定价，“美联储不会开始加息50个基点的迹象可能足以为风险情绪提供底线”。</blockquote>It&#39;s a topic that will require Fed Chairman Jerome Powell &#34;to thread a needle&#34; in his Wednesday news conference, wrote economists at RBC Capital Markets, in a note last week. Powell will need to continue expressing urgency about making monetary policy less accommodative while not coming across as nervous or behind the curve.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场的经济学家在上周的一份报告中写道，这个话题需要美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上“穿针引线”。鲍威尔需要继续表达降低货币政策宽松程度的紧迫性，同时不要给人留下紧张或落后的印象。</blockquote>The latter would &#34;only add some fuel to the conversation gathering momentum here now about the prospects for a 50 [basis point] hike,&#34; they said. &#34;We think they want to avoid going that route. We have no doubt he will be asked this during Q&amp;A so we hope he has a good answer prepared.&#34;<blockquote>他们表示，后者“只会为目前有关加息50个基点前景的讨论增添一些动力”。“我们认为他们希望避免走这条路。我们毫不怀疑他会在问答中被问到这个问题，所以我们希望他准备好一个好的答案。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-market investors can't count on the'Fed put' -- Why policy makers aren't seen rushing to rescue<blockquote>股市投资者不能指望“美联储看跌期权”——为什么政策制定者没有急于救援</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-market investors can't count on the'Fed put' -- Why policy makers aren't seen rushing to rescue<blockquote>股市投资者不能指望“美联储看跌期权”——为什么政策制定者没有急于救援</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-01-25 11:56\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>But pushing back against half-point March hike could stabilize risk sentiment: RenMac&#39;s Dutta<blockquote><html><head></head><body>但RenMac的Dutta表示，抵制3月份加息半个百分点可能会稳定风险情绪</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8f526f026cf32da454262b4f4af7703\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Stefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images<blockquote>史蒂芬妮·雷诺兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote>The Federal Reserve is widely seen as unlikely to ride to the rescue as the stock market stumbles to begin 2022.<blockquote>人们普遍认为，随着股市在2022年伊始跌跌撞撞，美联储不太可能出手救援。</blockquote>Indeed, some market watchers blamed Monday&#39;s initial broad stock-market downturn which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge more than 1,000 points and the S&amp;P 500 slide 4% at its session low partly due to expectations the Fed won&#39;t snap back into hand-holding mode when policy makers meet this week, though equities subsequently roared back to end the day higher in a breakneck intraday reversal.<blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士将周一股市最初的普遍低迷归咎于道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌超过1,000点，标普500指数在盘中低点下跌4%，部分原因是人们预期美联储不会重新采取snap。政策制定者本周开会时采取了持有模式，尽管股市随后大幅反弹，以盘中急速逆转收盘走高。</blockquote>Stocks are still down sharply to kick off the year, however, with the Nasdaq Composite down more than 14% from its November high to trade in correction territory, while the S&amp;P 500 has shed 7.5% in the month to date and the Dow has lost 5.4%.<blockquote>然而，年初股市仍大幅下跌，纳斯达克综合指数较11月高点下跌超过14%，进入回调区域，而标普500本月迄今已下跌7.5%，道琼斯指数已下跌5.4%。</blockquote>Many analysts and investors have written off, at least temporarily, what&#39;s known as the &#34;Fed put,&#34; arguing that surging inflation means policy makers will be unable to deviate from plans to deliver a series of rate increases and otherwise tighten monetary policy in the months ahead.<blockquote>许多分析师和投资者已经至少暂时取消了所谓的“美联储看跌期权”，认为通胀飙升意味着政策制定者将无法偏离在未来几个月内实施一系列加息或收紧货币政策的计划。</blockquote>The central bank&#39;s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee expected this week to lay the groundwork for a rate increase at its March meeting and to further discuss how fast it will shrink its balance sheet once it is ready to do so.<blockquote>美联储负责政策制定的联邦公开市场委员会预计本周将在3月份的会议上为加息奠定基础，并进一步讨论一旦准备好缩表的速度。</blockquote>Investors have talked of a figurative Fed put since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.<blockquote>至少自1987年10月股市崩盘促使艾伦·格林斯潘领导的央行降低利率以来，投资者就一直在谈论象征性的美联储看跌期权。实际看跌期权是一种金融衍生品，它赋予持有人权利但没有义务以设定水平（称为执行价格）出售标的资产，作为应对市场下跌的保险政策。</blockquote>&#34;Last week&#39;s price action reflected the fact that the market is in the midst of a &#39;Tightening Tantrum,&#39;&#34; wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note. &#34;And just like the &#39;Taper Tantrum&#39; from 2013, this Tightening Tantrum won&#39;t end until the Fed, as it did back then, reassures the market that it won&#39;t tighten too quickly,&#34; he said, referring to a bout of market volatility that followed a spring 2013 signal that the central bank was preparing to wind down the asset-buying program put in place during the financial crisis.<blockquote>Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye在周一的一份报告中写道：“上周的价格走势反映了市场正处于‘紧缩情绪’之中。”他表示：“就像2013年的‘缩减恐慌’一样，除非美联储像当时那样向市场保证不会过快收紧，否则这种紧缩恐慌不会结束。”2013年春季有信号表明央行准备逐步结束金融危机期间实施的资产购买计划，随后市场出现波动。</blockquote>The difference, however, is that unlike 2013, the economy faces an inflation problem, Essaye said, with the Fed under enormous political pressure to get surging prices under control.<blockquote>然而，Essaye表示，不同的是，与2013年不同，经济面临通胀问题，美联储面临着巨大的政治压力，需要控制飙升的物价。</blockquote>&#34;Practically speaking, that means the Fed will allow stocks to decline more before providing rhetorical comfort then they did in 2013. Put another way, as we and others have said, the &#39;strike price&#39; on the Fed put is lower than it used to be, and it&#39;slower than where the S&amp;P 500 is trading right now,&#34; he wrote, ahead of Monday&#39;s market open.<blockquote>“实际上，这意味着美联储将允许股市进一步下跌，然后再提供比2013年更多的口头安慰。换句话说，正如我们和其他人所说，美联储看跌期权的‘执行价格’低于过去，而且“比标普500目前的交易速度慢，”他在周一开盘前写道。</blockquote>More recently, stocks tanked in December 2018 as the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with a tightening cycle. The Fed in January 2019 signaled an abrupt change in course that led to rate cuts later in the year. Equities regained their footing to continue a record bull-market march that ended only with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year later.<blockquote>最近，随着美联储推进紧缩周期，股市在2018年12月暴跌。美联储在2019年1月发出了突然改变方针的信号，导致今年晚些时候降息。股市重新站稳脚跟，继续创纪录的牛市三月，直到一年多后新冠肺炎疫情爆发才结束。</blockquote>But this time around, not only is inflation running at a roughly 40-year high, unemployment sits at 3.9% and the economy appears relatively resilient thanks to solid consumer balance sheets, analysts said.<blockquote>但分析师表示，这一次，不仅通胀处于约40年来的高位，失业率也达到3.9%，而且由于消费者资产负债表稳健，经济似乎相对有弹性。</blockquote>&#34;Put another way: until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed will simply not be convinced that raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet in 2022 will more likely cause a recession rather than a soft landing,&#34; said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Monday note.<blockquote>“换句话说：在我们进一步抛售风险资产之前，美联储根本不会相信2022年加息和缩小资产负债表规模更有可能导致经济衰退而不是软着陆，”DataTrek Research联合创始人尼古拉斯·科拉斯(Nicholas Colas)在周一的一份报告中表示。</blockquote>Still, the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday could still serve to stabilize markets, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, in a note, arguing that investors may have gotten too aggressive in penciling in the pace of rate increases.<blockquote>Renaissance Macro Research美国经济研究主管尼尔·杜塔(Neil Dutta)在一份报告中表示，尽管如此，周三美联储会议的结果仍可能有助于稳定市场，他认为投资者在预测加息步伐时可能过于激进。</blockquote>Fed-funds futures show traders see a roughly 5% chance of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, hike, rather than a 25 basis point move, by the Fed at the March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Eurodollar futures, meanwhile, reflected a roughly 50-50 chance of a half-point move, Dutta noted, adding that history shows the Fed is much more likely to end a rate cycle with 50 basis point hike than it is to to kick off with an outsize move.<blockquote>根据CME FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货显示，交易员认为美联储在3月份会议上加息50个基点（即0.5个百分点）的可能性约为5%，而不是25个基点。与此同时，杜塔指出，欧洲美元期货上涨半个基点的可能性约为50-50，并补充说，历史表明，美联储以加息50个基点结束利率周期的可能性比以加息50个基点开始利率周期的可能性要大得多。一个巨大的举动。</blockquote>Given the current pricing in markets, &#34;an indication that the Fed will not be starting with a 50 basis point rate hike might be enough to provide a floor under risk sentiment,&#34; Dutta wrote.<blockquote>杜塔写道，鉴于目前的市场定价，“美联储不会开始加息50个基点的迹象可能足以为风险情绪提供底线”。</blockquote>It&#39;s a topic that will require Fed Chairman Jerome Powell &#34;to thread a needle&#34; in his Wednesday news conference, wrote economists at RBC Capital Markets, in a note last week. Powell will need to continue expressing urgency about making monetary policy less accommodative while not coming across as nervous or behind the curve.<blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场的经济学家在上周的一份报告中写道，这个话题需要美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上“穿针引线”。鲍威尔需要继续表达降低货币政策宽松程度的紧迫性，同时不要给人留下紧张或落后的印象。</blockquote>The latter would &#34;only add some fuel to the conversation gathering momentum here now about the prospects for a 50 [basis point] hike,&#34; they said. &#34;We think they want to avoid going that route. We have no doubt he will be asked this during Q&amp;A so we hope he has a good answer prepared.&#34;<blockquote>他们表示，后者“只会为目前有关加息50个基点前景的讨论增添一些动力”。“我们认为他们希望避免走这条路。我们毫不怀疑他会在问答中被问到这个问题，所以我们希望他准备好一个好的答案。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-dow-in-free-fall-will-federal-reserve-stop-the-bleeding-why-policy-makers-arent-seen-rushing-to-rescue-11643054439?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/with-dow-in-free-fall-will-federal-reserve-stop-the-bleeding-why-policy-makers-arent-seen-rushing-to-rescue-11643054439?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206096886","content_text":"But pushing back against half-point March hike could stabilize risk sentiment: RenMac's DuttaStefani Reynolds/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve is widely seen as unlikely to ride to the rescue as the stock market stumbles to begin 2022.Indeed, some market watchers blamed Monday's initial broad stock-market downturn which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunge more than 1,000 points and the S&P 500 slide 4% at its session low partly due to expectations the Fed won't snap back into hand-holding mode when policy makers meet this week, though equities subsequently roared back to end the day higher in a breakneck intraday reversal.Stocks are still down sharply to kick off the year, however, with the Nasdaq Composite down more than 14% from its November high to trade in correction territory, while the S&P 500 has shed 7.5% in the month to date and the Dow has lost 5.4%.Many analysts and investors have written off, at least temporarily, what's known as the \"Fed put,\" arguing that surging inflation means policy makers will be unable to deviate from plans to deliver a series of rate increases and otherwise tighten monetary policy in the months ahead.The central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee expected this week to lay the groundwork for a rate increase at its March meeting and to further discuss how fast it will shrink its balance sheet once it is ready to do so.Investors have talked of a figurative Fed put since at least the October 1987 stock-market crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to lower interest rates. An actual put option is a financial derivative that gives the holder the right but not the obligation to sell the underlying asset at a set level, known as the strike price, serving as an insurance policy against a market decline.\"Last week's price action reflected the fact that the market is in the midst of a 'Tightening Tantrum,'\" wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a Monday note. \"And just like the 'Taper Tantrum' from 2013, this Tightening Tantrum won't end until the Fed, as it did back then, reassures the market that it won't tighten too quickly,\" he said, referring to a bout of market volatility that followed a spring 2013 signal that the central bank was preparing to wind down the asset-buying program put in place during the financial crisis.The difference, however, is that unlike 2013, the economy faces an inflation problem, Essaye said, with the Fed under enormous political pressure to get surging prices under control.\"Practically speaking, that means the Fed will allow stocks to decline more before providing rhetorical comfort then they did in 2013. Put another way, as we and others have said, the 'strike price' on the Fed put is lower than it used to be, and it'slower than where the S&P 500 is trading right now,\" he wrote, ahead of Monday's market open.More recently, stocks tanked in December 2018 as the Federal Reserve pressed ahead with a tightening cycle. The Fed in January 2019 signaled an abrupt change in course that led to rate cuts later in the year. Equities regained their footing to continue a record bull-market march that ended only with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic more than a year later.But this time around, not only is inflation running at a roughly 40-year high, unemployment sits at 3.9% and the economy appears relatively resilient thanks to solid consumer balance sheets, analysts said.\"Put another way: until we get a further selloff in risk assets, the Fed will simply not be convinced that raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet in 2022 will more likely cause a recession rather than a soft landing,\" said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, in a Monday note.Still, the outcome of the Fed meeting on Wednesday could still serve to stabilize markets, said Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, in a note, arguing that investors may have gotten too aggressive in penciling in the pace of rate increases.Fed-funds futures show traders see a roughly 5% chance of a 50 basis point, or 0.5 percentage point, hike, rather than a 25 basis point move, by the Fed at the March meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Eurodollar futures, meanwhile, reflected a roughly 50-50 chance of a half-point move, Dutta noted, adding that history shows the Fed is much more likely to end a rate cycle with 50 basis point hike than it is to to kick off with an outsize move.Given the current pricing in markets, \"an indication that the Fed will not be starting with a 50 basis point rate hike might be enough to provide a floor under risk sentiment,\" Dutta wrote.It's a topic that will require Fed Chairman Jerome Powell \"to thread a needle\" in his Wednesday news conference, wrote economists at RBC Capital Markets, in a note last week. Powell will need to continue expressing urgency about making monetary policy less accommodative while not coming across as nervous or behind the curve.The latter would \"only add some fuel to the conversation gathering momentum here now about the prospects for a 50 [basis point] hike,\" they said. \"We think they want to avoid going that route. We have no doubt he will be asked this during Q&A so we hope he has a good answer prepared.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/639065185"}