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2022-01-26
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These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":639133016,"tweetId":"639133016","gmtCreate":1643191926915,"gmtModify":1643191976590,"author":{"id":3572841098185467,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorId":3572841098185467,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":5,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Noted</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Noted</p></body></html>","text":"Noted","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639133016","repostId":2206839931,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206839931","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643159234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206839931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206839931","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street se","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession," noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market," Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. "Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings."</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face "six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence," said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a "head fake," saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币走弱之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500," says Bannister and the team. So the next "shoe to drop" is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS "beats" minus "misses," which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price," says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs," as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power," they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the "nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West," adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to "the third bubble in 100 years." </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-26 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession," noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market," Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. "Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings."</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face "six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence," said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a "head fake," saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币走弱之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500," says Bannister and the team. So the next "shoe to drop" is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS "beats" minus "misses," which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price," says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs," as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power," they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the "nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West," adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to "the third bubble in 100 years." </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4134":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","MMM":"3M","BK4007":"制药","BK4525":"远程办公概念","AXP":"美国运通","BK4097":"系统软件","MSFT":"微软","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4567":"ESG概念","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4115":"综合电信业务","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4566":"资本集团","JNJ":"强生","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4206":"工业集团企业","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4538":"云计算","LMT":"洛克希德马丁",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4166":"消费信贷","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IBM":"IBM","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","XRX":"施乐","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206839931","content_text":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dug out of deep losses to close higher.\"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,\" noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.\"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,\" Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. \"Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.\"And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face \"six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,\" said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a \"head fake,\" saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.\"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500,\" says Bannister and the team. So the next \"shoe to drop\" is a weaker yuan.Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS \"beats\" minus \"misses,\" which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.\"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price,\" says Bannister and the team.Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.\"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs,\" as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,\" they add.Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the \"nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,\" adds Bannister.Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to \"the third bubble in 100 years.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AXP":1,"SPY":0.6,"JNJ":1,"IBM":1,"XRX":1,"LMT":1,"VZ":1,"SPOT":1,"MSFT":0.74,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MMM":1,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/639133016"}
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