RobinChanKH
2022-01-26
Up
How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir 股票如何到 2030 年实现 20% 以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
打开APP，发表看法
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":639357236,"tweetId":"639357236","gmtCreate":1643179524726,"gmtModify":1643179525156,"author":{"id":3585125163446793,"idStr":"3585125163446793","authorId":3585125163446793,"authorIdStr":"3585125163446793","name":"RobinChanKH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0ba843eca17a8812677bc4f2a46162","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":43,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639357236","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177764614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643177185,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1177764614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 14:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir 股票如何到 2030 年实现 20% 以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177764614","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.Meanwhile, Palantir's in","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.</li><li>Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.</li><li>We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7c4f3ba3be235774ad0b6a874c2107\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 股票以 20 美元的价格买入，现在交易价格为 13 美元。</li><li>与此同时，Palantir 的投资理念并没有太大变化，比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。</li><li>我们为PLTR股票提供了更新的投资论文和估值模型。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Based on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的估值模型，Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）股票以 20 美元的价格买入，现在交易价格为 13 美元。与此同时，其投资理念没有太大变化，比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。在本文中，我们提供了一个更新的投资论文和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir发生了什么变化？</b></blockquote></p><p>Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?</p><p><blockquote>显然，每当一只股票像 PLTR 自不到一年前创下历史高点以来那样急剧崩盘时，自然的问题就是：发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3bcae93dbc1139dc28a256581f7184\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Well, the answer is quite simple:</p><p><blockquote>答案很简单：</blockquote></p><p>1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a "fear of missing out" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:</p><p><blockquote>1. 一年前，随着 2020 年进入 2021 年，整体高增长颠覆性技术处于重大泡沫之中，因为该行业受到 COVID-19 的大幅提振，这助长了该行业“害怕错过”的狂热。从那时起，随着兴奋情绪的消退，通胀飙升迫使美联储在不久的将来发出有意义的加息信号，这个泡沫已经破裂。这促使投资者回到今天正在产生利润的公司，而不是满足于等到很久以后才能获得利润。ARK Investment 旗舰 ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) 过去一年的急剧下跌证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd461732d547d0c4c1af390b1a5dff99\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2. 虽然 ARKK 泡沫的通货膨胀和通货紧缩以及相关的宏观经济和地缘政治因素在很大程度上解释了 PLTR 过去一年的股价表现，但影响该股的另一个主要因素是管理层加倍加大了其宽松的股票薪酬政策。该公司积极向员工发行股票，不断抹去原本稳定的利润，并使公司的利润一个又一个季度地陷入亏损。</blockquote></p><p>That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，管理层支持股票薪酬的论点也是有道理的：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry</li><li>it gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investors</li><li>it preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.</li></ul>With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>它有助于吸引和留住业内最优秀、最聪明的人才</li><li>它让员工与投资者一起在游戏中发挥重要作用</li><li>它为公司保留了现金，使其能够积极投资于研究、产品开发、销售和营销工作。</li></ul>面对如此庞大且快速增长的总潜在市场，成长型投资似乎确实是目前最谨慎的资本使用，即使这意味着在短期内稀释股东。然而，不可否认的是，这种做法给股价带来了沉重的压力，因为许多投资者已经开始对该公司明显无视股东失去耐心。通胀上升和利率上升的前景只会进一步加剧这种情绪。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Not Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么没有改变？</b></blockquote></p><p>PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR继续快速增长和创新。虽然我们必须等待第四季度的业绩来验证这一点，但没有迹象表明其美国商业和政府业务已经停止快速增长。该公司仍有超过 1200 亿美元的潜在市场总额，预计将在未来十年及以后快速增长，其目前维持甚至提高当前强劲增长率的最大障碍是赢得更多国际业务。</blockquote></p><p>Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing "accelerating growth" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层似乎非常关注加速其国际渗透，因为在过去的两次财报评级中，管理层评论提到了尚未出现的国际业务的“加速增长”，该公司正在积极投资于国际销售团队的招聘，该公司最近制作了一系列以国际客户为特色的视频，首席执行官 Alex Karp 用法语与客户交谈，并向日本全国致辞，祝愿他们 2022 年快乐，并宣布计划今年访问日本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.</p><p><blockquote>论点实际上保持不变：PLTR 拥有巨大的增长跑道，应该可以在未来许多年内实现强劲的营收增长，它拥有业内一些顶尖人才，其代工业务在美国发展良好，并且在美国政府机构的内部轨道上拥有令人垂涎的地位，似乎是其与中国进行人工智能竞赛的头号马。</blockquote></p><p>However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者仍然需要看到 PLTR 的国际商业和政府业务可以获得有意义的牵引力，并且该公司可以扩大到股票薪酬的稀释影响显着减弱的水平。一旦这两个大问题得到解决，PLTR的投资论点将显着降低风险，股价即使不是上涨，也应该会更加稳定。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is PLTR Stock Worth?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股票价值多少？</b></blockquote></p><p>Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 PLTR 的总潜在市场应每年增长约 20%（与到 2030 年预计的 20.4% 全球大数据 CAGR 一致），我们认为到 2030 年底，PLTR 的 TAM 将超过 6000 亿美元。我们认为 PLTR 在其领域内处于竞争地位，因此应该能够至少保持其当前的市场份额，在此期间提供 20% 的收入复合年增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计 2025 年收入将超过 40 亿美元，而分析师预计该公司 2025 年收入将超过 50 亿美元，从而打破这一预测。这意味着在此期间的收入复合年增长率约为 35%，考虑到该公司 2022 年收入增长了 47.2%，预计 2021 年收入将增长约 40%，我们认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote></p><p>If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设 2026 年至 2030 年收入复合年增长率为 25%，那么 2030 年收入将达到 154 亿美元。这将仅占总可寻址市场份额的 2.5%。作为参考，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）目前拥有约 15% 的市场份额，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）目前拥有约 4% 的市场份额。我们认为这是一套非常合理（如果不是保守的话）的假设。</blockquote></p><p>This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了一个大问题：PLTR 的 EBITDA 利润率最终会是多少。2020 年，这一比例为 18.6%，2021 年预计将达到 30% 左右。如果该公司能够维持这些利润率，到 2030 年，其 EBITDA 将达到 46 亿美元。按 30 倍 EV/EBITDA 倍数计算，该公司的市值将接近 1400 亿美元。如今，其企业价值仅为245亿美元。这意味着未来九年总回报率复合年增长率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Given its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其竞争地位、飙升的地缘政治紧张局势和竞争必然会越来越以人工智能为中心。能力以及全球行业大数据的兴起，PLTR 在未来几年处于有利地位，有望实现大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p>If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够继续快速增长，其股票薪酬的重要性应该会开始下降，并最终为股东带来有吸引力的总回报。由于最近的大规模抛售，其安全边际比以往任何时候都宽，到 2030 年很可能产生超过 20% 的年化总回报率。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir 股票如何到 2030 年实现 20% 以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir 股票如何到 2030 年实现 20% 以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-26 14:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.</li><li>Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.</li><li>We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7c4f3ba3be235774ad0b6a874c2107\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 股票以 20 美元的价格买入，现在交易价格为 13 美元。</li><li>与此同时，Palantir 的投资理念并没有太大变化，比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。</li><li>我们为PLTR股票提供了更新的投资论文和估值模型。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Based on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的估值模型，Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）股票以 20 美元的价格买入，现在交易价格为 13 美元。与此同时，其投资理念没有太大变化，比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。在本文中，我们提供了一个更新的投资论文和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir发生了什么变化？</b></blockquote></p><p>Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?</p><p><blockquote>显然，每当一只股票像 PLTR 自不到一年前创下历史高点以来那样急剧崩盘时，自然的问题就是：发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3bcae93dbc1139dc28a256581f7184\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Well, the answer is quite simple:</p><p><blockquote>答案很简单：</blockquote></p><p>1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a "fear of missing out" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:</p><p><blockquote>1. 一年前，随着 2020 年进入 2021 年，整体高增长颠覆性技术处于重大泡沫之中，因为该行业受到 COVID-19 的大幅提振，这助长了该行业“害怕错过”的狂热。从那时起，随着兴奋情绪的消退，通胀飙升迫使美联储在不久的将来发出有意义的加息信号，这个泡沫已经破裂。这促使投资者回到今天正在产生利润的公司，而不是满足于等到很久以后才能获得利润。ARK Investment 旗舰 ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) 过去一年的急剧下跌证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd461732d547d0c4c1af390b1a5dff99\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p>2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2. 虽然 ARKK 泡沫的通货膨胀和通货紧缩以及相关的宏观经济和地缘政治因素在很大程度上解释了 PLTR 过去一年的股价表现，但影响该股的另一个主要因素是管理层加倍加大了其宽松的股票薪酬政策。该公司积极向员工发行股票，不断抹去原本稳定的利润，并使公司的利润一个又一个季度地陷入亏损。</blockquote></p><p>That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，管理层支持股票薪酬的论点也是有道理的：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry</li><li>it gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investors</li><li>it preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.</li></ul>With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>它有助于吸引和留住业内最优秀、最聪明的人才</li><li>它让员工与投资者一起在游戏中发挥重要作用</li><li>它为公司保留了现金，使其能够积极投资于研究、产品开发、销售和营销工作。</li></ul>面对如此庞大且快速增长的总潜在市场，成长型投资似乎确实是目前最谨慎的资本使用，即使这意味着在短期内稀释股东。然而，不可否认的是，这种做法给股价带来了沉重的压力，因为许多投资者已经开始对该公司明显无视股东失去耐心。通胀上升和利率上升的前景只会进一步加剧这种情绪。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Not Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么没有改变？</b></blockquote></p><p>PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR继续快速增长和创新。虽然我们必须等待第四季度的业绩来验证这一点，但没有迹象表明其美国商业和政府业务已经停止快速增长。该公司仍有超过 1200 亿美元的潜在市场总额，预计将在未来十年及以后快速增长，其目前维持甚至提高当前强劲增长率的最大障碍是赢得更多国际业务。</blockquote></p><p>Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing "accelerating growth" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层似乎非常关注加速其国际渗透，因为在过去的两次财报评级中，管理层评论提到了尚未出现的国际业务的“加速增长”，该公司正在积极投资于国际销售团队的招聘，该公司最近制作了一系列以国际客户为特色的视频，首席执行官 Alex Karp 用法语与客户交谈，并向日本全国致辞，祝愿他们 2022 年快乐，并宣布计划今年访问日本。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.</p><p><blockquote>论点实际上保持不变：PLTR 拥有巨大的增长跑道，应该可以在未来许多年内实现强劲的营收增长，它拥有业内一些顶尖人才，其代工业务在美国发展良好，并且在美国政府机构的内部轨道上拥有令人垂涎的地位，似乎是其与中国进行人工智能竞赛的头号马。</blockquote></p><p>However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者仍然需要看到 PLTR 的国际商业和政府业务可以获得有意义的牵引力，并且该公司可以扩大到股票薪酬的稀释影响显着减弱的水平。一旦这两个大问题得到解决，PLTR的投资论点将显着降低风险，股价即使不是上涨，也应该会更加稳定。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is PLTR Stock Worth?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR 股票价值多少？</b></blockquote></p><p>Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于 PLTR 的总潜在市场应每年增长约 20%（与到 2030 年预计的 20.4% 全球大数据 CAGR 一致），我们认为到 2030 年底，PLTR 的 TAM 将超过 6000 亿美元。我们认为 PLTR 在其领域内处于竞争地位，因此应该能够至少保持其当前的市场份额，在此期间提供 20% 的收入复合年增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计 2025 年收入将超过 40 亿美元，而分析师预计该公司 2025 年收入将超过 50 亿美元，从而打破这一预测。这意味着在此期间的收入复合年增长率约为 35%，考虑到该公司 2022 年收入增长了 47.2%，预计 2021 年收入将增长约 40%，我们认为这是相当合理的。</blockquote></p><p>If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设 2026 年至 2030 年收入复合年增长率为 25%，那么 2030 年收入将达到 154 亿美元。这将仅占总可寻址市场份额的 2.5%。作为参考，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）目前拥有约 15% 的市场份额，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）目前拥有约 4% 的市场份额。我们认为这是一套非常合理（如果不是保守的话）的假设。</blockquote></p><p>This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了一个大问题：PLTR 的 EBITDA 利润率最终会是多少。2020 年，这一比例为 18.6%，2021 年预计将达到 30% 左右。如果该公司能够维持这些利润率，到 2030 年，其 EBITDA 将达到 46 亿美元。按 30 倍 EV/EBITDA 倍数计算，该公司的市值将接近 1400 亿美元。如今，其企业价值仅为245亿美元。这意味着未来九年总回报率复合年增长率为 21%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Given its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其竞争地位、飙升的地缘政治紧张局势和竞争必然会越来越以人工智能为中心。能力以及全球行业大数据的兴起，PLTR 在未来几年处于有利地位，有望实现大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p>If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够继续快速增长，其股票薪酬的重要性应该会开始下降，并最终为股东带来有吸引力的总回报。由于最近的大规模抛售，其安全边际比以往任何时候都宽，到 2030 年很可能产生超过 20% 的年化总回报率。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481544-palantir-stock-total-return-cagr-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481544-palantir-stock-total-return-cagr-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177764614","content_text":"SummaryPalantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty ImagesBased on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.What Has Changed In Palantir?Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?Data by YChartsWell, the answer is quite simple:1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a \"fear of missing out\" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:Data by YCharts2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industryit gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investorsit preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.What Has Not Changed In Palantir?PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing \"accelerating growth\" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.What Is PLTR Stock Worth?Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.Investor TakeawayGiven its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/639357236"}
精彩评论