RobinChanKH
2022-01-26
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How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir股票到2030年如何产生20%以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":639357236,"tweetId":"639357236","gmtCreate":1643179524726,"gmtModify":1643179525156,"author":{"id":3585125163446793,"idStr":"3585125163446793","authorId":3585125163446793,"authorIdStr":"3585125163446793","name":"RobinChanKH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0ba843eca17a8812677bc4f2a46162","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":43,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Up</p></body></html>","text":"Up","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639357236","repostId":1177764614,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177764614","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643177185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177764614?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 14:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir股票到2030年如何产生20%以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177764614","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.Meanwhile, Palantir's in","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.</li><li>Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.</li><li>We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7c4f3ba3be235774ad0b6a874c2107\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir股票的买入价格为20美元，颇具吸引力，目前交易价格为13美元。</li><li>与此同时，Palantir的投资理念没有太大变化，而且比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。</li><li>我们为PLTR股票提供更新的投资论点和估值模型。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>渡边浩/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Based on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的估值模型，Palantir Technologies(NYSE：PLTR)股票的买入价格为20美元，具有吸引力，目前交易价格为13美元。与此同时，它的投资理念没有太大变化，而且比以往任何时候都更需要它的服务。在本文中，我们提供了一个更新的投资论点和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir发生了什么变化？</b></blockquote></p><p>Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?</p><p><blockquote>显然，每当一只股票像PLTR自不到一年前达到历史高点以来那样急剧暴跌时，自然的问题就是：发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3bcae93dbc1139dc28a256581f7184\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Well, the answer is quite simple:</p><p><blockquote>嗯，答案很简单：</blockquote></p><p>1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a "fear of missing out" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:</p><p><blockquote>1.一年前，随着2020年进入2021年，整体高增长颠覆性技术处于重大泡沫之中，因为该行业受到了COVID-19的大力支持，这加剧了该行业“害怕错过”的狂热。自那以后，随着兴奋感消退，通胀飙升迫使美联储在不久的将来发出有意义的加息信号，这一泡沫已经崩溃。这促使投资者重新转向今天正在产生利润的公司，而不是满足于等到很久以后才能获得利润。ARK Investment旗舰ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKK）过去一年的大幅下跌证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd461732d547d0c4c1af390b1a5dff99\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2.虽然ARKK泡沫的通货膨胀和通货紧缩以及相关的宏观经济和地缘政治因素在很大程度上解释了PLTR过去一年的股价表现，但另一个拖累该股的主要因素是管理层加倍努力其自由的股票薪酬政策。该公司积极向员工发行股权，不断抹去原本稳健的利润，并使公司的利润一个季度又一个季度陷入亏损。</blockquote></p><p>That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，管理层支持股票薪酬的论点也是有道理的：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry</li><li>it gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investors</li><li>it preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.</li></ul>With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>它有助于吸引和留住业内最优秀、最聪明的人才</li><li>它让员工与投资者一起参与游戏</li><li>它为公司保留了现金，以便积极投资于研究、产品开发以及销售和营销工作。</li></ul>面对如此庞大且快速增长的总潜在市场，成长型投资似乎确实是目前最谨慎的资本使用方式，即使这意味着在短期内稀释股东权益。然而，不可否认的是，这种做法对股价造成了沉重压力，因为许多投资者已经开始对公司明显无视股东的行为失去耐心。通胀上升和利率上升的前景只会进一步加剧这种情绪。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Not Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么没有改变？</b></blockquote></p><p>PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR继续快速发展和创新。虽然我们必须等待第四季度的业绩来验证这一点，但没有迹象表明其美国商业和政府业务已经停止快速增长。该公司仍拥有超过1200亿美元的总潜在市场，该市场应该会在未来十年及以后快速增长，而其目前维持甚至提高当前强劲增长率的最大障碍是赢得更多国际业务。</blockquote></p><p>Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing "accelerating growth" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层似乎非常专注于加速其国际渗透，因为过去两份财报评级都发表了管理层评论，提到尚未显现的国际业务“加速增长”，该公司正在积极投资国际销售团队招聘，并且该公司最近制作了一系列以国际客户为特色的视频，首席执行官Alex Karp用法语与客户交谈，并向日本发表讲话，祝他们2022年快乐，并宣布今年访问日本的计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.</p><p><blockquote>论点实际上保持不变：PLTR拥有巨大的增长跑道，应该可以在未来许多年实现强劲的营收增长，它拥有业内一些顶尖人才，其代工业务在美国发展良好，它在美国政府机构的内部轨道上拥有令人垂涎的地位，似乎是其在人工智能领域的佼佼者。与中国的竞赛。</blockquote></p><p>However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者仍然需要看到PLTR的国际商业和政府业务能够获得有意义的吸引力，并且该公司能够扩大到股票薪酬的稀释影响显着减弱的水平。一旦这两个大问题得到解决，PLTR的投资论点将显着降低风险，股价即使没有上涨空间，也应该会更加稳定。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is PLTR Stock Worth?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票值多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p>Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于PLTR的总潜在市场应以每年20%左右的速度增长（与预计到2030年全球大数据复合年增长率20.4%一致），我们认为到2030年底PLTR的TAM将超过6000亿美元。我们认为PLTR在其领域内具有竞争力，因此至少应该能够保持其当前的市场份额，在此期间提供20%的收入复合年增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计2025年收入将超过40亿美元，而分析师预计该公司2025年收入将超过50亿美元，打破这一预测。这意味着在此期间收入复合年增长率约为35%，我们认为这是相当合理的，因为该公司2022年收入增长了47.2%，预计2021年将增长约40%。</blockquote></p><p>If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设2026-2030年收入复合年增长率为25%，2030年收入将达到154亿美元。这仅占潜在市场份额的2.5%。作为参考，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）目前拥有约15%的市场份额，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）目前拥有约4%的市场份额。我们认为这是一套非常合理（如果不是保守的话）的假设。</blockquote></p><p>This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了一个大问题：PLTR的EBITDA利润率最终会是多少。2020年，这一比例为18.6%，2021年预计将达到30%左右。如果该公司能够维持这些利润率，2030年其EBITDA将达到46亿美元。按照30倍的EV/EBITDA倍数计算，该公司的价值将接近1400亿美元。如今，其企业价值仅为245亿美元。这意味着未来九年的总回报率复合年增长率为21%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Given its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其竞争地位，日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和竞争必然会越来越集中在人工智能上。能力以及全球行业大数据的兴起，PLTR处于有利地位，有望在未来几年实现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够继续快速增长，其股票薪酬的重要性应该会开始下降，最终应该会为股东带来有吸引力的总回报。由于最近的大规模抛售，其安全边际比以往任何时候都更宽，到2030年很可能产生超过20%的年化总回报率。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir股票到2030年如何产生20%以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Palantir Stock Could Generate A 20%+ Total Return CAGR Through 2030<blockquote>Palantir股票到2030年如何产生20%以上的总回报率复合年增长率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-26 14:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.</li><li>Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.</li><li>We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac7c4f3ba3be235774ad0b6a874c2107\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir股票的买入价格为20美元，颇具吸引力，目前交易价格为13美元。</li><li>与此同时，Palantir的投资理念没有太大变化，而且比以往任何时候都更需要其服务。</li><li>我们为PLTR股票提供更新的投资论点和估值模型。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>渡边浩/DigitalVision来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Based on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.</p><p><blockquote>根据我们的估值模型，Palantir Technologies(NYSE：PLTR)股票的买入价格为20美元，具有吸引力，目前交易价格为13美元。与此同时，它的投资理念没有太大变化，而且比以往任何时候都更需要它的服务。在本文中，我们提供了一个更新的投资论点和估值模型。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir发生了什么变化？</b></blockquote></p><p>Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?</p><p><blockquote>显然，每当一只股票像PLTR自不到一年前达到历史高点以来那样急剧暴跌时，自然的问题就是：发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3bcae93dbc1139dc28a256581f7184\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Well, the answer is quite simple:</p><p><blockquote>嗯，答案很简单：</blockquote></p><p>1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a "fear of missing out" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:</p><p><blockquote>1.一年前，随着2020年进入2021年，整体高增长颠覆性技术处于重大泡沫之中，因为该行业受到了COVID-19的大力支持，这加剧了该行业“害怕错过”的狂热。自那以后，随着兴奋感消退，通胀飙升迫使美联储在不久的将来发出有意义的加息信号，这一泡沫已经崩溃。这促使投资者重新转向今天正在产生利润的公司，而不是满足于等到很久以后才能获得利润。ARK Investment旗舰ETF（NYSEARCA：ARKK）过去一年的大幅下跌证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd461732d547d0c4c1af390b1a5dff99\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2.虽然ARKK泡沫的通货膨胀和通货紧缩以及相关的宏观经济和地缘政治因素在很大程度上解释了PLTR过去一年的股价表现，但另一个拖累该股的主要因素是管理层加倍努力其自由的股票薪酬政策。该公司积极向员工发行股权，不断抹去原本稳健的利润，并使公司的利润一个季度又一个季度陷入亏损。</blockquote></p><p>That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，管理层支持股票薪酬的论点也是有道理的：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industry</li><li>it gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investors</li><li>it preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.</li></ul>With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>它有助于吸引和留住业内最优秀、最聪明的人才</li><li>它让员工与投资者一起参与游戏</li><li>它为公司保留了现金，以便积极投资于研究、产品开发以及销售和营销工作。</li></ul>面对如此庞大且快速增长的总潜在市场，成长型投资似乎确实是目前最谨慎的资本使用方式，即使这意味着在短期内稀释股东权益。然而，不可否认的是，这种做法对股价造成了沉重压力，因为许多投资者已经开始对公司明显无视股东的行为失去耐心。通胀上升和利率上升的前景只会进一步加剧这种情绪。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Has Not Changed In Palantir?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir有什么没有改变？</b></blockquote></p><p>PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR继续快速发展和创新。虽然我们必须等待第四季度的业绩来验证这一点，但没有迹象表明其美国商业和政府业务已经停止快速增长。该公司仍拥有超过1200亿美元的总潜在市场，该市场应该会在未来十年及以后快速增长，而其目前维持甚至提高当前强劲增长率的最大障碍是赢得更多国际业务。</blockquote></p><p>Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing "accelerating growth" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层似乎非常专注于加速其国际渗透，因为过去两份财报评级都发表了管理层评论，提到尚未显现的国际业务“加速增长”，该公司正在积极投资国际销售团队招聘，并且该公司最近制作了一系列以国际客户为特色的视频，首席执行官Alex Karp用法语与客户交谈，并向日本发表讲话，祝他们2022年快乐，并宣布今年访问日本的计划。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.</p><p><blockquote>论点实际上保持不变：PLTR拥有巨大的增长跑道，应该可以在未来许多年实现强劲的营收增长，它拥有业内一些顶尖人才，其代工业务在美国发展良好，它在美国政府机构的内部轨道上拥有令人垂涎的地位，似乎是其在人工智能领域的佼佼者。与中国的竞赛。</blockquote></p><p>However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者仍然需要看到PLTR的国际商业和政府业务能够获得有意义的吸引力，并且该公司能够扩大到股票薪酬的稀释影响显着减弱的水平。一旦这两个大问题得到解决，PLTR的投资论点将显着降低风险，股价即使没有上涨空间，也应该会更加稳定。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is PLTR Stock Worth?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票值多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p>Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于PLTR的总潜在市场应以每年20%左右的速度增长（与预计到2030年全球大数据复合年增长率20.4%一致），我们认为到2030年底PLTR的TAM将超过6000亿美元。我们认为PLTR在其领域内具有竞争力，因此至少应该能够保持其当前的市场份额，在此期间提供20%的收入复合年增长率。</blockquote></p><p>Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计2025年收入将超过40亿美元，而分析师预计该公司2025年收入将超过50亿美元，打破这一预测。这意味着在此期间收入复合年增长率约为35%，我们认为这是相当合理的，因为该公司2022年收入增长了47.2%，预计2021年将增长约40%。</blockquote></p><p>If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们假设2026-2030年收入复合年增长率为25%，2030年收入将达到154亿美元。这仅占潜在市场份额的2.5%。作为参考，亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）目前拥有约15%的市场份额，优步（纽约证券交易所股票代码：UBER）目前拥有约4%的市场份额。我们认为这是一套非常合理（如果不是保守的话）的假设。</blockquote></p><p>This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.</p><p><blockquote>这就留下了一个大问题：PLTR的EBITDA利润率最终会是多少。2020年，这一比例为18.6%，2021年预计将达到30%左右。如果该公司能够维持这些利润率，2030年其EBITDA将达到46亿美元。按照30倍的EV/EBITDA倍数计算，该公司的价值将接近1400亿美元。如今，其企业价值仅为245亿美元。这意味着未来九年的总回报率复合年增长率为21%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p>Given its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于其竞争地位，日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和竞争必然会越来越集中在人工智能上。能力以及全球行业大数据的兴起，PLTR处于有利地位，有望在未来几年实现大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能够继续快速增长，其股票薪酬的重要性应该会开始下降，最终应该会为股东带来有吸引力的总回报。由于最近的大规模抛售，其安全边际比以往任何时候都更宽，到2030年很可能产生超过20%的年化总回报率。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481544-palantir-stock-total-return-cagr-2030\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4481544-palantir-stock-total-return-cagr-2030","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177764614","content_text":"SummaryPalantir stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13.Meanwhile, Palantir's investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever.We provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model for PLTR stock.Hiroshi Watanabe/DigitalVision via Getty ImagesBased on our valuation model, Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR) stock was an attractive buy at $20 and now it trades at $13. Meanwhile, its investment thesis has not changed much and its services are needed more than ever. In this article, we provide an updated investment thesis and valuation model.What Has Changed In Palantir?Obviously whenever a stock crashes as precipitously as PLTR has since reaching all-time highs just shy of a year ago, the natural question is: what happened?Data by YChartsWell, the answer is quite simple:1. Overall high-growth disruptive technology was in a major bubble a year ago as 2020 turned to 2021 since the sector had been bolstered substantially by COVID-19 and this had fed into a \"fear of missing out\" frenzy in the sector. Since then, this bubble has collapsed as the euphoria has worn off and soaring inflation has pressured the Federal Reserve into signaling meaningful interest rate hikes in the near future. This has pushed investors back towards companies that are generating profits today rather than being content to wait until well into the future to receive profits. The steep decline of ARK Investment's flagship ETF (NYSEARCA:ARKK) over the past year proves this point:Data by YCharts2. While the inflation and deflation of the ARKK bubble and the associated macroeconomic and geopolitical factors explain a lot of PLTR's share price performance over the past year, another major factor weighing on the stock is management's doubling down on its liberal stock-based compensation policy. The company's aggressive issuance of equity to its employees consistently erases what would otherwise be solid profits and turns the company's bottom line deep into the red quarter after quarter.That said, management's argument in favor of stock-based compensation also makes sense:it helps to attract and retain the best and brightest minds in the industryit gives employees substantial skin in the game alongside investorsit preserves cash for the company to invest aggressively into research, product development, and sales and marketing efforts.With such a massive and rapidly growing total addressable market, growth investing truly does seem to be the most prudent use of capital at this point, even if it means diluting shareholders in the short term. Nevertheless, itcannot be denied that this practice weighs heavily on the shares as many investors have begun to lose patience with the company's apparent disregard of shareholders. Rising inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates has only heightened that sentiment even more.What Has Not Changed In Palantir?PLTR continues to grow and innovate rapidly. While we will have to wait for Q4 results to verify this, but there is no indication that its U.S. commercial and government businesses have stopped growing rapidly. The company still has a $120 billion plus total addressable market that should grow rapidly for the next decade and beyond and its biggest current roadblock to sustaining or even increasing its robust current growth rate is winning more international business.Management seems keenly focused on accelerating its international penetration as the past two earnings calls have featured management comments referencing \"accelerating growth\" in the international business that has yet to show up, the company is investing aggressively in international sales team hiring, and the company has recently produced a string of videos featuring international clients, CEO Alex Karp speaking in French with clients, and addressing the nation of Japan to wish them a happy 2022 and announce plans to visit the nation this year.The thesis really remains the same: PLTR has a massive growth runway that should allow for robust top-line growth for many years to come, it has some of the top talent in the industry, its Foundry business is taking off nicely in the U.S., and it possesses a coveted position on the inside track with U.S. government agencies and seems to be its top horse for running the A.I. race against China.However, investors still need to see that PLTR's international commercial and government businesses can gain meaningful traction and that the company can scale to a level where the dilutive impact of stock-based compensation becomes significantly diminished. Once these two big questions are resolved, PLTR's investment thesis will be significantly de-risked and the stock price should then see much greater stability, if not upside.What Is PLTR Stock Worth?Given that PLTR's total addressable market should grow by around 20% per year (in-line with the projected 20.4% global big data CAGR through 2030), we think that PLTR's TAM will be over $600 billion by the end of 2030. We think that PLTR is competitively positioned within its space and should therefore be able to at a minimum retain its current market share, providing a nice floor growth rate of a 20% revenue CAGR over that time span.Management has guided for over $4 billion in revenue in 2025, while analysts expect the company will smash that projection with over $5 billion in revenue in 2025. That implies a ~35% revenue CAGR over that time span which we think is quite reasonable given that the company grew revenue by 47.2% in 2022 and is expected to have grown it by about 40% in 2021.If we assume a 25% revenue growth CAGR from 2026-2030, revenue will be at $15.4 billion in 2030. That would be a meager 2.5% of total addressable market share. For reference, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)currently owns ~15% of its market share and Uber(NYSE:UBER)currently owns ~4% of its market share. We think this is a very reasonable - if not conservative - set of assumptions.This leaves the big question at what PLTR's EBITDA margins will end up being. In 2020, they were 18.6% and in 2021 they are expected to come in around 30%. If the company can merely sustain these margins, its EBITDA will be $4.6 billion in 2030. At a 30x EV/EBITDA multiple, the company would be worth nearly $140 billion. Today, its enterprise value is just $24.5 billion. That would imply a 21% total return CAGR over the next nine years.Investor TakeawayGiven its competitive positioning, the soaring geopolitical tensions and rivalries that are bound to become increasingly centered on A.I. capabilities, and the rise of big data across global industry, PLTR is in a strong position to see massive growth for years to come.If it can continue growing at a rapid clip, its stock-based compensation should begin to decline in significance and ultimately it should generate attractive total returns for shareholders. Thanks to the massive recent sell-off, its margin of safety is wider than ever and it could very possibly generate over 20% annualized total returns through 2030.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/639357236"}
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