AdrinaChow
2022-09-23
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Google Vs. Tesla: Which Stock Has A Better Forecast?<blockquote>谷歌与特斯拉：哪只股票的预测更好？</blockquote>
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Tesla: Which Stock Has A Better Forecast?<blockquote>谷歌与特斯拉：哪只股票的预测更好？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2269207122","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryMega-cap stocks are well-liked among investors. Both GOOG and TSLA belong to that group.Both ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Mega-cap stocks are well-liked among investors. Both GOOG and TSLA belong to that group.</li><li>Both have done a stock split recently and both compete in the self-driving automobile space. How do they compare?</li><li>What about their valuations, recession resilience, balance sheet strength, and cash flow? Which company looks like the better choice at current prices?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812c50e2c662e1a9de13588ada8420bf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gorodenkoff</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>大型股很受投资者欢迎。GOOG和TSLA都属于该集团。</li><li>两家公司最近都进行了股票分割，并且都在自动驾驶汽车领域展开竞争。它们如何比较？</li><li>他们的估值、衰退弹性、资产负债表实力和现金流如何？以目前的价格来看，哪家公司看起来是更好的选择？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戈罗登科夫</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2>Article Thesis</h2>Mega-caps have been popular among investors, and rightfully so. They have offered compelling returns in the past and are highly liquid. Two of those are active in the emerging autonomous driving space: Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) via its Waymo subsidiary, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), via its Autopilot/FSD program. In this article, we'll look at the opportunities and risks of both companies to see which one is a more promising investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>文章论文</h2>巨型股一直受到投资者的欢迎，这是理所当然的。它们过去提供了令人信服的回报，并且流动性很强。其中两家活跃在新兴的自动驾驶领域：Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）通过其Waymo子公司，以及特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）通过其Autopilot/FSD计划。在本文中，我们将研究两家公司的机会和风险，看看在当前价格下哪一家是更有前途的投资。</blockquote></p><p><h2>How Did Tesla And Google Perform Following Their Recent Stock Splits?</h2>Both companies split their shares not too long ago, in a bid to bring down their share prices to a more "normal" level. Potential index inclusion in the Dow Jones, which is price-weighted, likely also played a role in their decisions to split their shares.</p><p><blockquote><h2>特斯拉和谷歌在最近的股票分割后表现如何？</h2>两家公司不久前都进行了股票分割，以将股价降至更“正常”的水平。潜在的指数纳入道琼斯指数（价格加权）也可能在他们决定分割股票时发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caa75f6003a8a5d8ae349b6c8fe75231\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, both companies have seen their shares drop, with TSLA being down 12% while GOOG is down almost 30% in 2022. Alphabet split its shares in mid-July and has declined slightly since then, while Tesla split its shares in early August. Prior to that stock split, Tesla's shares experienced a run-up, but since then, they moved mostly sideways. From a near-term share price perspective, these stock splits were thus not successful, but buying purely due to a stock split isn't a great investment approach anyway.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，两家公司的股价都有所下跌，其中TSLA下跌了12%，而GOOG在2022年下跌了近30%。Alphabet于7月中旬拆股，此后股价小幅下跌，而特斯拉则于8月初拆股。在股票分割之前，特斯拉的股价经历了上涨，但此后，它们大多横盘整理。从近期股价的角度来看，这些股票分割并不成功，但纯粹因股票分割而买入无论如何都不是一个很好的投资方法。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Competitors In The Self-Driving Automobile Realm</h2>The two companies aren't competitors with everything they do, as Alphabet is mostly an online advertising company, while Tesla primarily is a car manufacturer. Nevertheless, the two compete in a prominent, fast-growing, and potentially very promising (in an economic sense) area, which is self-driving automobile technology.</p><p><blockquote><h2>自动驾驶汽车领域的竞争对手</h2>这两家公司并不是所有事情都是竞争对手，因为Alphabet主要是一家在线广告公司，而特斯拉主要是一家汽车制造商。尽管如此，两者在一个突出的、快速增长的、潜在的非常有前途的（从经济意义上来说）领域展开竞争，那就是自动驾驶汽车技术。</blockquote></p><p>Alphabet has been active in this space for quite some time via its Waymo subsidiary. Tesla has ambitious goals in this space as well, which it pursues via its self-driving tech program Autopilot/FSD.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet通过其Waymo子公司在这一领域活跃了相当长一段时间。特斯拉在这一领域也有雄心勃勃的目标，它通过其自动驾驶技术项目Autopilot/FSD来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>No one knows when the first automobile with Level 5 self-driving technology will be available, or which company will produce it. But it is pretty clear that there are some companies that are in strong positions today and that could be important contenders for that title.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道第一辆采用Level 5自动驾驶技术的汽车何时面世，也不知道哪家公司会生产。但很明显，今天有一些公司处于强势地位，可能成为这一头衔的重要竞争者。</blockquote></p><p>The following image shows a list of companies that have been approved for testing their vehicles in California without a driver. Some of those companies are even allowed to deploy their tech in the state:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了已被批准在加州测试无人驾驶车辆的公司列表。其中一些公司甚至被允许在该州部署其技术：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b26f22348c751bc1e1839280d47756\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>ca.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ca.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that Google's Waymo holds the permit in both groups, as do Nuro and GM's (GM) Cruise. It seems reasonable to me to assume that the companies with the most advantaged permits are the companies with the most advantaged tech. A couple of other companies are allowed to test their tech in vehicles without a driver, including WeRide and Zoox. Notably, Tesla is not among these companies. It holds a permit to test its technology in California, but only in vehicles with a driver. A total of 50 companies hold that permit according to the government website, thus we can say that holding this permit is "nothing special". Many of Tesla's peers, including Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGYY) and NIO (NIO), hold the same permit.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到谷歌的Waymo以及Nuro和通用汽车(GM)的Cruise都持有这两个群体的许可证。在我看来，假设拥有最有利许可证的公司就是拥有最有利技术的公司似乎是合理的。其他几家公司被允许在无人驾驶车辆上测试他们的技术，包括WeRide和Zoox。值得注意的是，特斯拉并不在这些公司之列。它持有在加州测试其技术的许可证，但只能在有司机的车辆上测试。根据政府网站，共有50家公司持有该许可证，因此我们可以说持有该许可证“没什么特别的”。特斯拉的许多同行，包括梅赛德斯-奔驰（OTCPK：MBGYY）和蔚来（蔚来），都持有相同的许可证。</blockquote></p><p>From a regulatory viewpoint, Alphabet's offering in this space seems way more advantaged -- it stands out among the dozens of companies that are active in self-driving tech, while Tesla seems to be in the middle of the pack. The same holds true when we look at commercialization.</p><p><blockquote>从监管的角度来看，Alphabet在这一领域的产品似乎更具优势——它在活跃于自动驾驶技术领域的数十家公司中脱颖而出，而特斯拉似乎处于中间位置。当我们看商业化时，也是如此。</blockquote></p><p>While Tesla demands money from buyers of its tech even though that is only in beta testing, it is not allowed to commercialize it in a robo-taxi way. Waymo, on the other hand, has deployed its self-driving taxis in several cities including San Francisco, where riders can book rides via Alphabet's apps.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉要求其技术的买家提供资金，即使这只是在测试阶段，但它不允许以机器人出租车的方式将其商业化。另一方面，Waymo已经在包括旧金山在内的多个城市部署了自动驾驶出租车，乘客可以通过Alphabet的应用程序预订乘车服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Of course, there is no guarantee that Alphabet's lead will hold. It is possible that Tesla eventually manages to hit a home run with its tech. But to me, it does not look like this is the most likely scenario -- it seems more reasonable (to me) to assume that the current leaders with the most advantaged projects will continue to hold their leadership position in this space.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证Alphabet的领先优势会持续下去。特斯拉最终有可能凭借其技术打出全垒打。但对我来说，这看起来不像是最有可能的情况——（对我来说）更合理的假设是，拥有最具优势项目的当前领导者将继续在这一领域占据领导地位。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Alphabet And Tesla Stock Key Metrics</h2>Both companies have seen their shares drop back this year, which means that their valuations have compressed. In other words, both stocks are cheaper today than they were at the beginning of the year, although that does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Alphabet和特斯拉股票关键指标</h2>这两家公司的股价今年都有所回落，这意味着它们的估值有所压缩。换句话说，这两只股票今天都比年初便宜，尽管这并不一定意味着它们的绝对值便宜。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the earnings multiple for the current year, Alphabet seems quite inexpensive, while Tesla still trades at a premium valuation:</p><p><blockquote>从今年的市盈率来看，Alphabet似乎相当便宜，而特斯拉的估值仍然很高：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39d06b8d89aa8f183775878ff7fc9d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Alphabet is trading at less than 20x forward net profit, for an earnings yield of 5%. Tesla is trading at around 3.5x that valuation, as its earnings yield is in the 1.5% range as its earnings multiple still is north of 70. Of course, one can argue that free cash flows are even more important than net profits. After all, dividends and buybacks are financed with (free) cash, and debt reduction, acquisitions, etc. also depend on a company's ability to throw off cash. In that regard, Alphabet looks even better relative to Tesla. Alphabet's free cash flows are relatively comparable to its net profits, as the trailing free cash flow yield is in the 5% range as well.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的预期净利润不到20倍，收益率为5%。特斯拉的市盈率约为该估值的3.5倍，其市盈率仍高于70，因此其市盈率在1.5%范围内。当然，有人可能会说自由现金流甚至比净利润更重要。毕竟，股息和回购是用（免费）现金融资的，而债务削减、收购等也取决于公司抛出现金的能力。在这方面，Alphabet相对于特斯拉看起来甚至更好。Alphabet的自由现金流与其净利润相对相当，因为追踪自由现金流收益率也在5%范围内。</blockquote></p><p>The same does not hold true for Tesla, as its free cash flow yield of not even 0.7% is just half as high as its earnings yield. The big discrepancy can be explained by the capital-intense nature of the automobile industry. Factories need to be built and retooled regularly, the companies in this space need large amounts of working capital for unfinished products, raw materials, and so on. That's why free cash generation generally is weak in the automobile space, thus this is not a Tesla-specific issue. Instead, Tesla is just performing in line with other automobile companies that have weak cash generation. Alphabet does not need to spend heavily on raw materials, factories, factory retooling, and so on. Its business model is much more shareholder-friendly as operations can be scaled up efficiently without large capital expenditure requirements -- letting users stream one more video on YouTube or see one more ad on Google does not require any meaningful cash outlays on Alphabet's side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的情况并非如此，因为其自由现金流收益率甚至不到0.7%，仅为盈利收益率的一半。这种巨大的差异可以用汽车行业的资本密集型性质来解释。工厂需要定期建设和改造，这个领域的公司需要大量的营运资金来购买未完成的产品、原材料等。这就是为什么汽车领域的自由现金生成普遍较弱，因此这不是特斯拉特有的问题。相反，特斯拉的表现只是与其他现金生成能力较弱的汽车公司保持一致。Alphabet不需要在原材料、工厂、工厂重组等方面投入大量资金。它的商业模式对股东更加友好，因为可以在不需要大量资本支出的情况下有效地扩大运营规模——让用户在YouTube上多播放一个视频或在谷歌上多看一个广告并不需要Alphabet方面任何有意义的现金支出。</blockquote></p><p>Not only does Alphabet look much cheaper than Tesla, but its way stronger free cash generation has also resulted in a way better balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet不仅看起来比特斯拉便宜得多，而且其更强的自由现金生成也带来了更好的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674770fc1359e36cc518d1501437fa47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Tesla has a $16 billion net cash position, which is quite solid. But that's less than 2% of Tesla's market capitalization. Meanwhile, GOOG has a net cash position of $112 billion, which is 7x as much as what Tesla has, and which is equal to more than 8% of Alphabet's market capitalization. Alphabet thus has much more financial firepower for shareholder returns, e.g. via buybacks, for acquisitions, and last but not least, its huge net cash position reduces risks considerably. In case we see a steep global economic downturn, Alphabet's more than $100 billion in net cash insulates the company very well from financial troubles, while Tesla would be more exposed -- not only is its cash "safety net" much smaller, but the automobile industry is also more cyclical and vulnerable to recessions relative to the software and communication services industries. In recent weeks we possibly got a glimpse of that, as delivery times for many of Tesla's models declined to just a couple of weeks -- that could be the result of increasing reluctance by consumers to spend heavily on a new vehicle in the current economic climate.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉拥有160亿美元的净现金头寸，相当稳健。但这还不到特斯拉市值的2%。与此同时，GOOG的净现金头寸为1120亿美元，是特斯拉的7倍，相当于Alphabet市值的8%以上。因此，Alphabet在股东回报方面拥有更大的财务实力，例如通过回购、收购，最后但并非最不重要的是，其巨大的净现金头寸大大降低了风险。如果我们看到全球经济急剧下滑，Alphabet超过1000亿美元的净现金可以很好地使该公司免受财务困境的影响，而特斯拉将面临更大的风险——不仅其现金“安全网”要小得多，而且相对于软件和通信服务行业，汽车行业也更具周期性，更容易受到衰退的影响。最近几周，我们可能已经看到了这一点，因为特斯拉许多车型的交付时间缩短到了几周——这可能是消费者在当前的经济环境下越来越不愿意在新车上投入巨资的结果。</blockquote></p><p>When we account for the net cash positions of both companies, Alphabet's undemanding valuation drops to an even lower level:</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到两家公司的净现金头寸时，Alphabet不苛刻的估值降至更低的水平：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a566129c9826a9725931bb8bff600d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p>At just 12x trailing EBITDA, Alphabet trades at a pretty undemanding valuation, especially when we account for its market leadership and healthy growth. Tesla is trading at 5x Alphabet's EV/EBITDA multiple. It has pretty strong growth as well, at least in the past (see the aforementioned backlog decline and vulnerability to an economic downturn). But with its way weaker cash generation, lower margins, intensifying competitive pressures, and weaker self-driving tech, the current valuation does not seem attractive. One can argue that Tesla would be very attractive at a 12x EBITDA multiple, but at 5x the valuation of Alphabet, Alphabet looks like a significantly more compelling choice to me.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的往绩EBITDA仅为12倍，其估值相当低，特别是当我们考虑到其市场领导地位和健康增长时。特斯拉的EV/EBITDA倍数是Alphabet的5倍。它也有相当强劲的增长，至少在过去是这样（参见前面提到的积压订单下降和对经济衰退的脆弱性）。但由于现金生成能力较弱、利润率较低、竞争压力加剧以及自动驾驶技术较弱，目前的估值似乎没有吸引力。有人可能会说，特斯拉以12倍的EBITDA倍数将非常有吸引力，但以Alphabet 5倍的估值，Alphabet对我来说似乎是一个更有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Is Alphabet Or Tesla The Better Long-Term Buy?</h2>Some Tesla bulls mainly are in it for Tesla's self-driving potential. I don't think Tesla is in a leadership position here, but it is of course possible that the company becomes more successful over time. In case it manages to solve true self-driving anywhere before anyone else, that would result in a lot of earnings potential. But betting on that is not my investment style, and Tesla wouldn't be my first choice even if I wanted to bet on any company solely for its autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Alphabet还是特斯拉更适合长期购买？</h2>一些特斯拉看涨者主要是因为特斯拉的自动驾驶潜力。我不认为特斯拉在这里处于领导地位，但随着时间的推移，该公司当然有可能变得更加成功。如果它能够先于任何人在任何地方解决真正的自动驾驶问题，那将带来巨大的盈利潜力。但押注这不是我的投资风格，即使我想仅仅因为自动驾驶技术而押注任何公司，特斯拉也不会是我的首选。</blockquote></p><p>The software/communication services industries offer great margins, strong free cash generation, and long-term growth potential. It also isn't very cyclical. All these things hold true for Alphabet, and the company is an absolute leader in its space. The automobile industry as a whole is significantly less attractive, due to weak margins, high capital intensity, and so on. These things hold true for Tesla as well, even though it's not a legacy automobile company. Tesla has a strong brand in the EV space, but competitive pressures are rising, and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) has overtaken it already in total EV sales (including plug-in hybrids). Due to these reasons, I believe that Alphabet is more suitable for a long-term investment. Since it is also way cheaper than Tesla while being one of just a few companies with self-driving cars deployed commercially, I favor it over Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>软件/通信服务行业提供了巨大的利润、强劲的自由现金生成和长期增长潜力。它也不是很周期性。所有这些都适用于Alphabet，该公司是该领域的绝对领导者。由于利润率低、资本密集度高等原因，汽车行业作为一个整体的吸引力明显下降。这些事情也适用于特斯拉，尽管它不是一家传统汽车公司。特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有强大的品牌，但竞争压力正在上升，比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY）在电动汽车总销量（包括插电式混合动力车）方面已经超越了它。由于这些原因，我认为Alphabet更适合长期投资。由于它也比特斯拉便宜得多，而且是少数几家拥有商业部署自动驾驶汽车的公司之一，因此我更喜欢它而不是特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p>This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only.</p><p><blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写，仅供参考。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Google Vs. Tesla: Which Stock Has A Better Forecast?<blockquote>谷歌与特斯拉：哪只股票的预测更好？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoogle Vs. Tesla: Which Stock Has A Better Forecast?<blockquote>谷歌与特斯拉：哪只股票的预测更好？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-23 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Mega-cap stocks are well-liked among investors. Both GOOG and TSLA belong to that group.</li><li>Both have done a stock split recently and both compete in the self-driving automobile space. How do they compare?</li><li>What about their valuations, recession resilience, balance sheet strength, and cash flow? Which company looks like the better choice at current prices?</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/812c50e2c662e1a9de13588ada8420bf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>gorodenkoff</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>大型股很受投资者欢迎。GOOG和TSLA都属于该集团。</li><li>两家公司最近都进行了股票分割，并且都在自动驾驶汽车领域展开竞争。它们如何比较？</li><li>他们的估值、衰退弹性、资产负债表实力和现金流如何？以目前的价格来看，哪家公司看起来是更好的选择？</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戈罗登科夫</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2>Article Thesis</h2>Mega-caps have been popular among investors, and rightfully so. They have offered compelling returns in the past and are highly liquid. Two of those are active in the emerging autonomous driving space: Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) via its Waymo subsidiary, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), via its Autopilot/FSD program. In this article, we'll look at the opportunities and risks of both companies to see which one is a more promising investment at current prices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>文章论文</h2>巨型股一直受到投资者的欢迎，这是理所当然的。它们过去提供了令人信服的回报，并且流动性很强。其中两家活跃在新兴的自动驾驶领域：Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOG）（纳斯达克：GOOGL）通过其Waymo子公司，以及特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）通过其Autopilot/FSD计划。在本文中，我们将研究两家公司的机会和风险，看看在当前价格下哪一家是更有前途的投资。</blockquote></p><p><h2>How Did Tesla And Google Perform Following Their Recent Stock Splits?</h2>Both companies split their shares not too long ago, in a bid to bring down their share prices to a more "normal" level. Potential index inclusion in the Dow Jones, which is price-weighted, likely also played a role in their decisions to split their shares.</p><p><blockquote><h2>特斯拉和谷歌在最近的股票分割后表现如何？</h2>两家公司不久前都进行了股票分割，以将股价降至更“正常”的水平。潜在的指数纳入道琼斯指数（价格加权）也可能在他们决定分割股票时发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caa75f6003a8a5d8ae349b6c8fe75231\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>So far this year, both companies have seen their shares drop, with TSLA being down 12% while GOOG is down almost 30% in 2022. Alphabet split its shares in mid-July and has declined slightly since then, while Tesla split its shares in early August. Prior to that stock split, Tesla's shares experienced a run-up, but since then, they moved mostly sideways. From a near-term share price perspective, these stock splits were thus not successful, but buying purely due to a stock split isn't a great investment approach anyway.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，两家公司的股价都有所下跌，其中TSLA下跌了12%，而GOOG在2022年下跌了近30%。Alphabet于7月中旬拆股，此后股价小幅下跌，而特斯拉则于8月初拆股。在股票分割之前，特斯拉的股价经历了上涨，但此后，它们大多横盘整理。从近期股价的角度来看，这些股票分割并不成功，但纯粹因股票分割而买入无论如何都不是一个很好的投资方法。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Competitors In The Self-Driving Automobile Realm</h2>The two companies aren't competitors with everything they do, as Alphabet is mostly an online advertising company, while Tesla primarily is a car manufacturer. Nevertheless, the two compete in a prominent, fast-growing, and potentially very promising (in an economic sense) area, which is self-driving automobile technology.</p><p><blockquote><h2>自动驾驶汽车领域的竞争对手</h2>这两家公司并不是所有事情都是竞争对手，因为Alphabet主要是一家在线广告公司，而特斯拉主要是一家汽车制造商。尽管如此，两者在一个突出的、快速增长的、潜在的非常有前途的（从经济意义上来说）领域展开竞争，那就是自动驾驶汽车技术。</blockquote></p><p>Alphabet has been active in this space for quite some time via its Waymo subsidiary. Tesla has ambitious goals in this space as well, which it pursues via its self-driving tech program Autopilot/FSD.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet通过其Waymo子公司在这一领域活跃了相当长一段时间。特斯拉在这一领域也有雄心勃勃的目标，它通过其自动驾驶技术项目Autopilot/FSD来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p>No one knows when the first automobile with Level 5 self-driving technology will be available, or which company will produce it. But it is pretty clear that there are some companies that are in strong positions today and that could be important contenders for that title.</p><p><blockquote>没有人知道第一辆采用Level 5自动驾驶技术的汽车何时面世，也不知道哪家公司会生产。但很明显，今天有一些公司处于强势地位，可能成为这一头衔的重要竞争者。</blockquote></p><p>The following image shows a list of companies that have been approved for testing their vehicles in California without a driver. Some of those companies are even allowed to deploy their tech in the state:</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了已被批准在加州测试无人驾驶车辆的公司列表。其中一些公司甚至被允许在该州部署其技术：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6b26f22348c751bc1e1839280d47756\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>ca.gov</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ca.gov</span></p></blockquote></p><p>We see that Google's Waymo holds the permit in both groups, as do Nuro and GM's (GM) Cruise. It seems reasonable to me to assume that the companies with the most advantaged permits are the companies with the most advantaged tech. A couple of other companies are allowed to test their tech in vehicles without a driver, including WeRide and Zoox. Notably, Tesla is not among these companies. It holds a permit to test its technology in California, but only in vehicles with a driver. A total of 50 companies hold that permit according to the government website, thus we can say that holding this permit is "nothing special". Many of Tesla's peers, including Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGYY) and NIO (NIO), hold the same permit.</p><p><blockquote>我们看到谷歌的Waymo以及Nuro和通用汽车(GM)的Cruise都持有这两个群体的许可证。在我看来，假设拥有最有利许可证的公司就是拥有最有利技术的公司似乎是合理的。其他几家公司被允许在无人驾驶车辆上测试他们的技术，包括WeRide和Zoox。值得注意的是，特斯拉并不在这些公司之列。它持有在加州测试其技术的许可证，但只能在有司机的车辆上测试。根据政府网站，共有50家公司持有该许可证，因此我们可以说持有该许可证“没什么特别的”。特斯拉的许多同行，包括梅赛德斯-奔驰（OTCPK：MBGYY）和蔚来（蔚来），都持有相同的许可证。</blockquote></p><p>From a regulatory viewpoint, Alphabet's offering in this space seems way more advantaged -- it stands out among the dozens of companies that are active in self-driving tech, while Tesla seems to be in the middle of the pack. The same holds true when we look at commercialization.</p><p><blockquote>从监管的角度来看，Alphabet在这一领域的产品似乎更具优势——它在活跃于自动驾驶技术领域的数十家公司中脱颖而出，而特斯拉似乎处于中间位置。当我们看商业化时，也是如此。</blockquote></p><p>While Tesla demands money from buyers of its tech even though that is only in beta testing, it is not allowed to commercialize it in a robo-taxi way. Waymo, on the other hand, has deployed its self-driving taxis in several cities including San Francisco, where riders can book rides via Alphabet's apps.</p><p><blockquote>虽然特斯拉要求其技术的买家提供资金，即使这只是在测试阶段，但它不允许以机器人出租车的方式将其商业化。另一方面，Waymo已经在包括旧金山在内的多个城市部署了自动驾驶出租车，乘客可以通过Alphabet的应用程序预订乘车服务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Of course, there is no guarantee that Alphabet's lead will hold. It is possible that Tesla eventually manages to hit a home run with its tech. But to me, it does not look like this is the most likely scenario -- it seems more reasonable (to me) to assume that the current leaders with the most advantaged projects will continue to hold their leadership position in this space.</p><p><blockquote>当然，不能保证Alphabet的领先优势会持续下去。特斯拉最终有可能凭借其技术打出全垒打。但对我来说，这看起来不像是最有可能的情况——（对我来说）更合理的假设是，拥有最具优势项目的当前领导者将继续在这一领域占据领导地位。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Alphabet And Tesla Stock Key Metrics</h2>Both companies have seen their shares drop back this year, which means that their valuations have compressed. In other words, both stocks are cheaper today than they were at the beginning of the year, although that does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Alphabet和特斯拉股票关键指标</h2>这两家公司的股价今年都有所回落，这意味着它们的估值有所压缩。换句话说，这两只股票今天都比年初便宜，尽管这并不一定意味着它们的绝对值便宜。</blockquote></p><p>Looking at the earnings multiple for the current year, Alphabet seems quite inexpensive, while Tesla still trades at a premium valuation:</p><p><blockquote>从今年的市盈率来看，Alphabet似乎相当便宜，而特斯拉的估值仍然很高：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c39d06b8d89aa8f183775878ff7fc9d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Alphabet is trading at less than 20x forward net profit, for an earnings yield of 5%. Tesla is trading at around 3.5x that valuation, as its earnings yield is in the 1.5% range as its earnings multiple still is north of 70. Of course, one can argue that free cash flows are even more important than net profits. After all, dividends and buybacks are financed with (free) cash, and debt reduction, acquisitions, etc. also depend on a company's ability to throw off cash. In that regard, Alphabet looks even better relative to Tesla. Alphabet's free cash flows are relatively comparable to its net profits, as the trailing free cash flow yield is in the 5% range as well.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的预期净利润不到20倍，收益率为5%。特斯拉的市盈率约为该估值的3.5倍，其市盈率仍高于70，因此其市盈率在1.5%范围内。当然，有人可能会说自由现金流甚至比净利润更重要。毕竟，股息和回购是用（免费）现金融资的，而债务削减、收购等也取决于公司抛出现金的能力。在这方面，Alphabet相对于特斯拉看起来甚至更好。Alphabet的自由现金流与其净利润相对相当，因为追踪自由现金流收益率也在5%范围内。</blockquote></p><p>The same does not hold true for Tesla, as its free cash flow yield of not even 0.7% is just half as high as its earnings yield. The big discrepancy can be explained by the capital-intense nature of the automobile industry. Factories need to be built and retooled regularly, the companies in this space need large amounts of working capital for unfinished products, raw materials, and so on. That's why free cash generation generally is weak in the automobile space, thus this is not a Tesla-specific issue. Instead, Tesla is just performing in line with other automobile companies that have weak cash generation. Alphabet does not need to spend heavily on raw materials, factories, factory retooling, and so on. Its business model is much more shareholder-friendly as operations can be scaled up efficiently without large capital expenditure requirements -- letting users stream one more video on YouTube or see one more ad on Google does not require any meaningful cash outlays on Alphabet's side.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的情况并非如此，因为其自由现金流收益率甚至不到0.7%，仅为盈利收益率的一半。这种巨大的差异可以用汽车行业的资本密集型性质来解释。工厂需要定期建设和改造，这个领域的公司需要大量的营运资金来购买未完成的产品、原材料等。这就是为什么汽车领域的自由现金生成普遍较弱，因此这不是特斯拉特有的问题。相反，特斯拉的表现只是与其他现金生成能力较弱的汽车公司保持一致。Alphabet不需要在原材料、工厂、工厂重组等方面投入大量资金。它的商业模式对股东更加友好，因为可以在不需要大量资本支出的情况下有效地扩大运营规模——让用户在YouTube上多播放一个视频或在谷歌上多看一个广告并不需要Alphabet方面任何有意义的现金支出。</blockquote></p><p>Not only does Alphabet look much cheaper than Tesla, but its way stronger free cash generation has also resulted in a way better balance sheet.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet不仅看起来比特斯拉便宜得多，而且其更强的自由现金生成也带来了更好的资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674770fc1359e36cc518d1501437fa47\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"892\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Tesla has a $16 billion net cash position, which is quite solid. But that's less than 2% of Tesla's market capitalization. Meanwhile, GOOG has a net cash position of $112 billion, which is 7x as much as what Tesla has, and which is equal to more than 8% of Alphabet's market capitalization. Alphabet thus has much more financial firepower for shareholder returns, e.g. via buybacks, for acquisitions, and last but not least, its huge net cash position reduces risks considerably. In case we see a steep global economic downturn, Alphabet's more than $100 billion in net cash insulates the company very well from financial troubles, while Tesla would be more exposed -- not only is its cash "safety net" much smaller, but the automobile industry is also more cyclical and vulnerable to recessions relative to the software and communication services industries. In recent weeks we possibly got a glimpse of that, as delivery times for many of Tesla's models declined to just a couple of weeks -- that could be the result of increasing reluctance by consumers to spend heavily on a new vehicle in the current economic climate.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉拥有160亿美元的净现金头寸，相当稳健。但这还不到特斯拉市值的2%。与此同时，GOOG的净现金头寸为1120亿美元，是特斯拉的7倍，相当于Alphabet市值的8%以上。因此，Alphabet在股东回报方面拥有更大的财务实力，例如通过回购、收购，最后但并非最不重要的是，其巨大的净现金头寸大大降低了风险。如果我们看到全球经济急剧下滑，Alphabet超过1000亿美元的净现金可以很好地使该公司免受财务困境的影响，而特斯拉将面临更大的风险——不仅其现金“安全网”要小得多，而且相对于软件和通信服务行业，汽车行业也更具周期性，更容易受到衰退的影响。最近几周，我们可能已经看到了这一点，因为特斯拉许多车型的交付时间缩短到了几周——这可能是消费者在当前的经济环境下越来越不愿意在新车上投入巨资的结果。</blockquote></p><p>When we account for the net cash positions of both companies, Alphabet's undemanding valuation drops to an even lower level:</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑到两家公司的净现金头寸时，Alphabet不苛刻的估值降至更低的水平：</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52a566129c9826a9725931bb8bff600d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"826\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p>At just 12x trailing EBITDA, Alphabet trades at a pretty undemanding valuation, especially when we account for its market leadership and healthy growth. Tesla is trading at 5x Alphabet's EV/EBITDA multiple. It has pretty strong growth as well, at least in the past (see the aforementioned backlog decline and vulnerability to an economic downturn). But with its way weaker cash generation, lower margins, intensifying competitive pressures, and weaker self-driving tech, the current valuation does not seem attractive. One can argue that Tesla would be very attractive at a 12x EBITDA multiple, but at 5x the valuation of Alphabet, Alphabet looks like a significantly more compelling choice to me.</p><p><blockquote>Alphabet的往绩EBITDA仅为12倍，其估值相当低，特别是当我们考虑到其市场领导地位和健康增长时。特斯拉的EV/EBITDA倍数是Alphabet的5倍。它也有相当强劲的增长，至少在过去是这样（参见前面提到的积压订单下降和对经济衰退的脆弱性）。但由于现金生成能力较弱、利润率较低、竞争压力加剧以及自动驾驶技术较弱，目前的估值似乎没有吸引力。有人可能会说，特斯拉以12倍的EBITDA倍数将非常有吸引力，但以Alphabet 5倍的估值，Alphabet对我来说似乎是一个更有吸引力的选择。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Is Alphabet Or Tesla The Better Long-Term Buy?</h2>Some Tesla bulls mainly are in it for Tesla's self-driving potential. I don't think Tesla is in a leadership position here, but it is of course possible that the company becomes more successful over time. In case it manages to solve true self-driving anywhere before anyone else, that would result in a lot of earnings potential. But betting on that is not my investment style, and Tesla wouldn't be my first choice even if I wanted to bet on any company solely for its autonomous driving tech.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Alphabet还是特斯拉更适合长期购买？</h2>一些特斯拉看涨者主要是因为特斯拉的自动驾驶潜力。我不认为特斯拉在这里处于领导地位，但随着时间的推移，该公司当然有可能变得更加成功。如果它能够先于任何人在任何地方解决真正的自动驾驶问题，那将带来巨大的盈利潜力。但押注这不是我的投资风格，即使我想仅仅因为自动驾驶技术而押注任何公司，特斯拉也不会是我的首选。</blockquote></p><p>The software/communication services industries offer great margins, strong free cash generation, and long-term growth potential. It also isn't very cyclical. All these things hold true for Alphabet, and the company is an absolute leader in its space. The automobile industry as a whole is significantly less attractive, due to weak margins, high capital intensity, and so on. These things hold true for Tesla as well, even though it's not a legacy automobile company. Tesla has a strong brand in the EV space, but competitive pressures are rising, and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) has overtaken it already in total EV sales (including plug-in hybrids). Due to these reasons, I believe that Alphabet is more suitable for a long-term investment. Since it is also way cheaper than Tesla while being one of just a few companies with self-driving cars deployed commercially, I favor it over Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>软件/通信服务行业提供了巨大的利润、强劲的自由现金生成和长期增长潜力。它也不是很周期性。所有这些都适用于Alphabet，该公司是该领域的绝对领导者。由于利润率低、资本密集度高等原因，汽车行业作为一个整体的吸引力明显下降。这些事情也适用于特斯拉，尽管它不是一家传统汽车公司。特斯拉在电动汽车领域拥有强大的品牌，但竞争压力正在上升，比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY）在电动汽车总销量（包括插电式混合动力车）方面已经超越了它。由于这些原因，我认为Alphabet更适合长期投资。由于它也比特斯拉便宜得多，而且是少数几家拥有商业部署自动驾驶汽车的公司之一，因此我更喜欢它而不是特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p>This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only.</p><p><blockquote>本文由乔纳森·韦伯撰写，仅供参考。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542480-google-vs-tesla-which-stock-better-forecast\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLA":"特斯拉","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4542480-google-vs-tesla-which-stock-better-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2269207122","content_text":"SummaryMega-cap stocks are well-liked among investors. Both GOOG and TSLA belong to that group.Both have done a stock split recently and both compete in the self-driving automobile space. How do they compare?What about their valuations, recession resilience, balance sheet strength, and cash flow? Which company looks like the better choice at current prices?gorodenkoffArticle ThesisMega-caps have been popular among investors, and rightfully so. They have offered compelling returns in the past and are highly liquid. Two of those are active in the emerging autonomous driving space: Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL) via its Waymo subsidiary, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), via its Autopilot/FSD program. In this article, we'll look at the opportunities and risks of both companies to see which one is a more promising investment at current prices.How Did Tesla And Google Perform Following Their Recent Stock Splits?Both companies split their shares not too long ago, in a bid to bring down their share prices to a more \"normal\" level. Potential index inclusion in the Dow Jones, which is price-weighted, likely also played a role in their decisions to split their shares.Data by YChartsSo far this year, both companies have seen their shares drop, with TSLA being down 12% while GOOG is down almost 30% in 2022. Alphabet split its shares in mid-July and has declined slightly since then, while Tesla split its shares in early August. Prior to that stock split, Tesla's shares experienced a run-up, but since then, they moved mostly sideways. From a near-term share price perspective, these stock splits were thus not successful, but buying purely due to a stock split isn't a great investment approach anyway.Competitors In The Self-Driving Automobile RealmThe two companies aren't competitors with everything they do, as Alphabet is mostly an online advertising company, while Tesla primarily is a car manufacturer. Nevertheless, the two compete in a prominent, fast-growing, and potentially very promising (in an economic sense) area, which is self-driving automobile technology.Alphabet has been active in this space for quite some time via its Waymo subsidiary. Tesla has ambitious goals in this space as well, which it pursues via its self-driving tech program Autopilot/FSD.No one knows when the first automobile with Level 5 self-driving technology will be available, or which company will produce it. But it is pretty clear that there are some companies that are in strong positions today and that could be important contenders for that title.The following image shows a list of companies that have been approved for testing their vehicles in California without a driver. Some of those companies are even allowed to deploy their tech in the state:ca.govWe see that Google's Waymo holds the permit in both groups, as do Nuro and GM's (GM) Cruise. It seems reasonable to me to assume that the companies with the most advantaged permits are the companies with the most advantaged tech. A couple of other companies are allowed to test their tech in vehicles without a driver, including WeRide and Zoox. Notably, Tesla is not among these companies. It holds a permit to test its technology in California, but only in vehicles with a driver. A total of 50 companies hold that permit according to the government website, thus we can say that holding this permit is \"nothing special\". Many of Tesla's peers, including Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:MBGYY) and NIO (NIO), hold the same permit.From a regulatory viewpoint, Alphabet's offering in this space seems way more advantaged -- it stands out among the dozens of companies that are active in self-driving tech, while Tesla seems to be in the middle of the pack. The same holds true when we look at commercialization.While Tesla demands money from buyers of its tech even though that is only in beta testing, it is not allowed to commercialize it in a robo-taxi way. Waymo, on the other hand, has deployed its self-driving taxis in several cities including San Francisco, where riders can book rides via Alphabet's apps.Of course, there is no guarantee that Alphabet's lead will hold. It is possible that Tesla eventually manages to hit a home run with its tech. But to me, it does not look like this is the most likely scenario -- it seems more reasonable (to me) to assume that the current leaders with the most advantaged projects will continue to hold their leadership position in this space.Alphabet And Tesla Stock Key MetricsBoth companies have seen their shares drop back this year, which means that their valuations have compressed. In other words, both stocks are cheaper today than they were at the beginning of the year, although that does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in absolute terms.Looking at the earnings multiple for the current year, Alphabet seems quite inexpensive, while Tesla still trades at a premium valuation:Data by YChartsAlphabet is trading at less than 20x forward net profit, for an earnings yield of 5%. Tesla is trading at around 3.5x that valuation, as its earnings yield is in the 1.5% range as its earnings multiple still is north of 70. Of course, one can argue that free cash flows are even more important than net profits. After all, dividends and buybacks are financed with (free) cash, and debt reduction, acquisitions, etc. also depend on a company's ability to throw off cash. In that regard, Alphabet looks even better relative to Tesla. Alphabet's free cash flows are relatively comparable to its net profits, as the trailing free cash flow yield is in the 5% range as well.The same does not hold true for Tesla, as its free cash flow yield of not even 0.7% is just half as high as its earnings yield. The big discrepancy can be explained by the capital-intense nature of the automobile industry. Factories need to be built and retooled regularly, the companies in this space need large amounts of working capital for unfinished products, raw materials, and so on. That's why free cash generation generally is weak in the automobile space, thus this is not a Tesla-specific issue. Instead, Tesla is just performing in line with other automobile companies that have weak cash generation. Alphabet does not need to spend heavily on raw materials, factories, factory retooling, and so on. Its business model is much more shareholder-friendly as operations can be scaled up efficiently without large capital expenditure requirements -- letting users stream one more video on YouTube or see one more ad on Google does not require any meaningful cash outlays on Alphabet's side.Not only does Alphabet look much cheaper than Tesla, but its way stronger free cash generation has also resulted in a way better balance sheet.Data by YChartsTesla has a $16 billion net cash position, which is quite solid. But that's less than 2% of Tesla's market capitalization. Meanwhile, GOOG has a net cash position of $112 billion, which is 7x as much as what Tesla has, and which is equal to more than 8% of Alphabet's market capitalization. Alphabet thus has much more financial firepower for shareholder returns, e.g. via buybacks, for acquisitions, and last but not least, its huge net cash position reduces risks considerably. In case we see a steep global economic downturn, Alphabet's more than $100 billion in net cash insulates the company very well from financial troubles, while Tesla would be more exposed -- not only is its cash \"safety net\" much smaller, but the automobile industry is also more cyclical and vulnerable to recessions relative to the software and communication services industries. In recent weeks we possibly got a glimpse of that, as delivery times for many of Tesla's models declined to just a couple of weeks -- that could be the result of increasing reluctance by consumers to spend heavily on a new vehicle in the current economic climate.When we account for the net cash positions of both companies, Alphabet's undemanding valuation drops to an even lower level:Data by YChartsAt just 12x trailing EBITDA, Alphabet trades at a pretty undemanding valuation, especially when we account for its market leadership and healthy growth. Tesla is trading at 5x Alphabet's EV/EBITDA multiple. It has pretty strong growth as well, at least in the past (see the aforementioned backlog decline and vulnerability to an economic downturn). But with its way weaker cash generation, lower margins, intensifying competitive pressures, and weaker self-driving tech, the current valuation does not seem attractive. One can argue that Tesla would be very attractive at a 12x EBITDA multiple, but at 5x the valuation of Alphabet, Alphabet looks like a significantly more compelling choice to me.Is Alphabet Or Tesla The Better Long-Term Buy?Some Tesla bulls mainly are in it for Tesla's self-driving potential. I don't think Tesla is in a leadership position here, but it is of course possible that the company becomes more successful over time. In case it manages to solve true self-driving anywhere before anyone else, that would result in a lot of earnings potential. But betting on that is not my investment style, and Tesla wouldn't be my first choice even if I wanted to bet on any company solely for its autonomous driving tech.The software/communication services industries offer great margins, strong free cash generation, and long-term growth potential. It also isn't very cyclical. All these things hold true for Alphabet, and the company is an absolute leader in its space. The automobile industry as a whole is significantly less attractive, due to weak margins, high capital intensity, and so on. These things hold true for Tesla as well, even though it's not a legacy automobile company. Tesla has a strong brand in the EV space, but competitive pressures are rising, and BYD (OTCPK:BYDDY) has overtaken it already in total EV sales (including plug-in hybrids). Due to these reasons, I believe that Alphabet is more suitable for a long-term investment. Since it is also way cheaper than Tesla while being one of just a few companies with self-driving cars deployed commercially, I favor it over Tesla.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/661662120"}
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