不言蚁语
2022-11-01
还是比较客观，风险与机会是相对的。价格6元是底线了吧。7元放胆进去。钱总要有地方放的，而电动车是主流这个50年内改不了。
Is NIO Stock A Buy During The Dip? What To Consider<blockquote>蔚来股票在下跌期间值得买入吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>
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What To Consider<blockquote>蔚来股票在下跌期间值得买入吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124445589","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNIO has seen its shares slump over the last year.Rising interest rates, supply chain issues, and geopoliticaltensions are to blame.That being said, NIO continues to grow its business and its ex","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>NIO has seen its shares slump over the last year.</li><li>Rising interest rates, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions are to blame.</li><li>That being said, NIO continues to grow its business and its expansion to Europe has started.</li></ul><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>去年，蔚来股价暴跌。</li><li>利率上升、供应链问题和地缘政治紧张局势都是罪魁祸首。</li><li>话虽如此，蔚来仍在继续发展其业务，并且已经开始向欧洲扩张。</li></ul><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has, like many other EV stocks, seen its shares decline quite a bit so far this year. This has made the stock a lot cheaper, relative to where NIO traded when its shares hit their highs last year. At the same time, NIO has made some operational progress and started its expansion into Europe. NIO isn't profitable yet, and thus may not be suitable for risk-averse investors. But its current valuation is not very demanding, and the company's growth potential is strong.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他电动汽车股票一样，蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）的股价今年迄今为止大幅下跌。相对于蔚来去年股价触及高点时的交易价格，这使得该股便宜得多。与此同时，蔚来取得了一些运营进展，并开始了向欧洲的扩张。蔚来尚未盈利，因此可能不适合规避风险的投资者。但其目前估值要求不高，公司成长性较强。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why Has NIO's Price Dipped?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的价格为何下跌？</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO has seen its share price decline by 72% over the last year. More recently, its share price performance has been far from great, too. Over the last month, NIO's stock price declined by a little over 40%, which destroyed more than $10 billion in market capitalization. There are several factors at play when it comes to explaining NIO's share price decline.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的股价去年下跌了72%。最近，其股价表现也远非出色。上个月，蔚来股价下跌了40%多一点，市值蒸发了超过100亿美元。在解释蔚来股价下跌时，有几个因素在起作用。</blockquote></p><p>First, the company had been trading at a rather high valuation last year, when the market was overly optimistic about EV stocks. NIO, along with stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Lucid (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), and so on, was trading at a very high valuation back then. Since then, enthusiasm has waned, which is why all of these and many additional EV stocks have performed badly in that time frame, some even worse than NIO.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司去年的估值相当高，当时市场对电动汽车股票过于乐观。蔚来以及特斯拉(TSLA)、Lucid(LCID)、Rivian(RIVN)等股票当时的估值非常高。从那时起，热情就减弱了，这就是为什么所有这些股票和许多其他电动汽车股票在这段时间内表现不佳，有些甚至比蔚来还要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>Second, rising interest rates are a headwind for companies such as NIO. The company is not profitable yet but has a strong growth outlook, which should allow it to become profitable eventually. All of NIO's profits thus will be generated years or decades from now. In a zero-interest-rate environment, where discount rates in DCF models are low, these not-yet-profitable long-duration assets may be trading at high valuations. But since interest rates have risen sharply this year, including over the last couple of weeks, discount rates have risen, which has an especially large impact on growth stocks/long-duration assets, whereas less expensive value stocks aren't impacted as much.</p><p><blockquote>其次，利率上升对蔚来等公司来说是一个阻力。该公司尚未盈利，但具有强劲的增长前景，这应该会使其最终实现盈利。因此，蔚来的所有利润都将在几年或几十年后产生。在零利率环境下，DCF模型中的贴现率较低，这些尚未盈利的长期资产可能以高估值交易。但由于今年利率大幅上升，包括过去几周，贴现率上升，这对成长型股票/长期资产的影响尤其大，而较便宜的价值型股票受到的影响则不大。</blockquote></p><p>On top of that, the market has also become more worried about Chinese equities in general, due to geopolitical tensions, and it is nevertheless a macro risk for companies such as NIO. It should be noted that many US-based companies could be highly impacted by growing tensions as well, such as Tesla with its large China footprint, or Apple (AAPL) that generates billions of dollars in revenue in China.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，由于地缘政治紧张局势，市场对中国股市总体上也变得更加担忧，但这对蔚来等公司来说仍然是一个宏观风险。应该指出的是，许多美国公司也可能受到日益加剧的紧张局势的严重影响，例如在中国拥有庞大业务的特斯拉，或在中国创造数十亿美元收入的苹果（AAPL）。</blockquote></p><p>NIO has also been impacted by some company-specific items, such as its weaker-than-expected growth in recent months. During September, the most recent month we have data for, NIO's deliveries totaled 10,900 vehicles. That's just up by 2% year over year. Q3 numbers overall were better, but with a 29% year-over-year growth rate NIO grew less than the overall EV market in China, and it underperformed competitors such as BYD (OTCPK: BYDDY), which delivered growth of close to 200% in the same time frame. NIO's smaller peers, such as XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) also did not grow their sales as much as the market, thus NIO was not the only EV player that saw its sales growth rate dip. Nevertheless, market share losses aren't positive, and BYD has shown that it was possible for Chinese EV players to grow considerably in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来还受到了一些公司特定项目的影响，例如近几个月的增长弱于预期。9月份，即我们有数据的最近一个月，蔚来的交付量总计10,900辆。同比仅增长2%。第三季度的数据总体较好，但蔚来的同比增长率为29%，低于中国整体电动汽车市场，其表现也逊于比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY）等竞争对手，后者的增长率接近200%在同一时间范围内。蔚来规模较小的同行，如小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）的销量增长也没有市场那么快，因此蔚来并不是唯一一家销量增长率下降的电动汽车公司。尽管如此，市场份额的损失并不乐观，比亚迪已经表明，中国电动汽车企业近几个月有可能大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>NIO's management has stated that the not overly high delivery growth rate was caused by supply chain issues and that there is not a demand problem. That's good news, as supply chain issues can and will be solved, especially once COVID measures in China ease. As long as NIO's brand remains strong and there is demand for its vehicles, the underwhelming deliveries growth rate thus looks like a temporary issue. It's nevertheless clear that other EV players, mainly BYD, have apparently managed to handle supply chain issues better, which could be due to BYD's larger size that allows for more experience in sourcing material from different suppliers, etc.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来管理层曾表示，交付增速不算太高是供应链问题造成的，不存在需求问题。这是个好消息，因为供应链问题能够而且将会得到解决，特别是一旦中国的新冠疫情措施放松。只要蔚来的品牌保持强劲并且对其车辆有需求，那么低迷的交付增长率看起来只是暂时的问题。然而，很明显，其他电动汽车厂商，主要是比亚迪，显然已经更好地处理了供应链问题，这可能是由于比亚迪的规模更大，可以在从不同供应商采购材料等方面拥有更多经验。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is NIO's Outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的前景如何？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As an EV pureplay, NIO's market potential depends on the ongoing growth of the global EV market. Especially in NIO's home country, China, where growth has been excellent in the recent past. In China, around 20% of new vehicles are NEVs, or new energy vehicles. This primarily includes EVs (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) while other technologies such as hydrogen play a negligible role for now. With millions of EVs being sold in China alone (in September NEV sales totaled more than 600,000), and with that number growing at a rate of almost 100% year over year, there is a huge and rapidly expanding market opportunity in NIO's home country - the most important EV market in the world.</p><p><blockquote>作为纯电动汽车公司，蔚来的市场潜力取决于全球电动汽车市场的持续增长。尤其是在蔚来的祖国中国，中国最近的增长非常出色。在中国，大约20%的新车是新能源汽车。这主要包括电动汽车（插电式混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车），而氢等其他技术目前发挥的作用可以忽略不计。仅在中国就售出了数百万辆电动汽车（9月份新能源汽车销量总计超过60万辆），并且这一数字同比增长近100%，蔚来的祖国存在着巨大且快速扩张的市场机会国家——世界上最重要的电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p>NIO's vehicles are above-average in price and quality, which is why the company can't address all parts of the market. But even the premium market it addresses is very large and growing rapidly, showcased, for example, by Tesla's sales pace. NIO's production constraints should ease going forward, based on easing supply chain worries that I expect over the next couple of quarters as lockdown measures in China will hopefully wane eventually and since companies adapt to these issues over time.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的汽车在价格和质量上都高于平均水平，这就是为什么该公司无法满足市场的所有部分。但即使是它所针对的高端市场也非常大并且增长迅速，例如特斯拉的销售速度就证明了这一点。基于我预计未来几个季度供应链担忧的缓解，蔚来的生产限制应该会缓解，因为中国的封锁措施有望最终减弱，而且企业会随着时间的推移适应这些问题。</blockquote></p><p>NIO is also expanding outside of its home market, China. Recently, the company opened its first battery-swapping station in Germany, which is Europe's largest automobile market, where other EV companies also see a lot of potential - such as Tesla, which built a Gigafactory there. NIO had already been active in Norway before that, which is usually the first European market EV companies from outside of Europe expand to. Now, NIO is active in several European markets, including the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark, on top of the aforementioned Norway and Germany. The first model that was introduced in Europe is the ET7, NIO's high-end sedan, but NIO will introduce additional models over time. The company plans to build 20 swapping stations in Europe by the end of the year, which will introduce the vast European market to NIO's unique tech that differentiates it from other EV players where consumers have to accept long charging times, whereas NIO's battery swaps only require a couple of minutes, thereby providing a clear unique selling point that should be beneficial for NIO's potential to sell vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来也在向中国本土市场以外的地区扩张。最近，该公司在德国开设了第一个电池交换站，德国是欧洲最大的汽车市场，其他电动汽车公司也看到了德国的巨大潜力，例如特斯拉，它在德国建立了一座超级工厂。在此之前，蔚来已经活跃在挪威，挪威通常是欧洲以外电动汽车公司扩张的第一个欧洲市场。现在，除了前面提到的挪威语和德语之外，蔚来还活跃在几个欧洲市场，包括荷兰语、瑞典语和丹麦语。在欧洲推出的第一款车型是蔚来的高端轿车ET7，但随着时间的推移，蔚来将推出更多车型。该公司计划到今年年底在欧洲建立20个换电站，这将向广阔的欧洲市场介绍蔚来的独特技术，使其有别于其他消费者必须接受较长充电时间的电动汽车厂商，而蔚来的电池更换只需要几分钟，从而提供了一个明确的独特卖点，这应该有利于蔚来的汽车销售潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Between these factors, NIO should be able to grow its business very meaningfully over the next couple of years. Of course, revenues alone do not make a company a great investment, thus NIO will have to prove that it can also generate compelling profits over time. Thanks to the high prices for its vehicles, as it sells to the less price-sensitive premium market, that should be possible, although the exact timing when it will first become profitable is not yet known.</p><p><blockquote>在这些因素之间，蔚来应该能够在未来几年内非常有意义地发展其业务。当然，仅靠收入并不能让一家公司成为一项伟大的投资，因此蔚来必须证明，随着时间的推移，它也可以产生引人注目的利润。由于其车辆价格高昂，因为它销往对价格不太敏感的高端市场，这应该是可能的，尽管它首次盈利的确切时间尚不清楚。</blockquote></p><p>From a valuation basis, NIO does not look very expensive versus other EV players:</p><p><blockquote>从估值基础来看，与其他电动汽车公司相比，蔚来看起来并不是很昂贵：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2b729bebc2b8e3d904230bbdbf463a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>XPeng is less expensive than NIO, but other relevant peers such as Li, Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are more expensive on a price-to-sales basis. Especially the three US-based peers, which are trading at way higher valuations than NIO, which makes NIO look attractive by comparison.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的价格低于蔚来，但其他相关同行，如Li、特斯拉、Lucid和Rivian，按市销率计算价格更高。尤其是三家美国同行，它们的估值远高于蔚来，相比之下，这使得蔚来看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is NIO Stock A Buy, Hold, Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票是买入、持有还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO is battling with some supply chain problems, which is why its growth in recent quarters wasn't overly strong. Still, NIO hit a new record in Q3, and delivered growth in the 30% range, which is far from bad. With the ongoing expansion in Europe, growth could accelerate going forward, especially when/if China eases its COVID policy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正在与一些供应链问题作斗争，这就是为什么其最近几个季度的增长并不太强劲。尽管如此，蔚来在第三季度创下了新纪录，并实现了30%的增长，这还算不错。随着欧洲的持续扩张，未来增长可能会加速，特别是当/如果中国放松其COVID政策。</blockquote></p><p>From a valuation perspective, NIO looks like one of the better EV players, as it trades at a hefty discount relative to many of its peers. That being said, there are some China-specific risks that investors should consider. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, an investment in Chinese companies such as NIO could be risky, although that would also impact American companies that are reliant on the Chinese market, such as Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，蔚来看起来是更好的电动汽车公司之一，因为它的交易价格相对于许多同行来说有很大的折扣。话虽如此，投资者应该考虑一些中国特有的风险。如果地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级，对蔚来等中国公司的投资可能存在风险，尽管这也会影响特斯拉等依赖中国市场的美国公司。</blockquote></p><p>Overall, NIO has some opportunities, but in the current environment of rising interest rates and macro uncertainties, it is far from a sure bet that NIO will rise in the near term. I thus am neutral when it comes to NIO right now.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，蔚来有一些机会，但在当前利率上升和宏观不确定性的环境下，远不能确定蔚来会在短期内崛起。因此，当谈到蔚来时，我现在是中立的。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is NIO Stock A Buy During The Dip? What To Consider<blockquote>蔚来股票在下跌期间值得买入吗？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs NIO Stock A Buy During The Dip? What To Consider<blockquote>蔚来股票在下跌期间值得买入吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-25 13:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>NIO has seen its shares slump over the last year.</li><li>Rising interest rates, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions are to blame.</li><li>That being said, NIO continues to grow its business and its expansion to Europe has started.</li></ul><b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>去年，蔚来股价暴跌。</li><li>利率上升、供应链问题和地缘政治紧张局势都是罪魁祸首。</li><li>话虽如此，蔚来仍在继续发展其业务，并且已经开始向欧洲扩张。</li></ul><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has, like many other EV stocks, seen its shares decline quite a bit so far this year. This has made the stock a lot cheaper, relative to where NIO traded when its shares hit their highs last year. At the same time, NIO has made some operational progress and started its expansion into Europe. NIO isn't profitable yet, and thus may not be suitable for risk-averse investors. But its current valuation is not very demanding, and the company's growth potential is strong.</p><p><blockquote>与许多其他电动汽车股票一样，蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）的股价今年迄今为止大幅下跌。相对于蔚来去年股价触及高点时的交易价格，这使得该股便宜得多。与此同时，蔚来取得了一些运营进展，并开始了向欧洲的扩张。蔚来尚未盈利，因此可能不适合规避风险的投资者。但其目前估值要求不高，公司成长性较强。</blockquote></p><p><b>Why Has NIO's Price Dipped?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的价格为何下跌？</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO has seen its share price decline by 72% over the last year. More recently, its share price performance has been far from great, too. Over the last month, NIO's stock price declined by a little over 40%, which destroyed more than $10 billion in market capitalization. There are several factors at play when it comes to explaining NIO's share price decline.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的股价去年下跌了72%。最近，其股价表现也远非出色。上个月，蔚来股价下跌了40%多一点，市值蒸发了超过100亿美元。在解释蔚来股价下跌时，有几个因素在起作用。</blockquote></p><p>First, the company had been trading at a rather high valuation last year, when the market was overly optimistic about EV stocks. NIO, along with stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Lucid (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), and so on, was trading at a very high valuation back then. Since then, enthusiasm has waned, which is why all of these and many additional EV stocks have performed badly in that time frame, some even worse than NIO.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该公司去年的估值相当高，当时市场对电动汽车股票过于乐观。蔚来以及特斯拉(TSLA)、Lucid(LCID)、Rivian(RIVN)等股票当时的估值非常高。从那时起，热情就减弱了，这就是为什么所有这些股票和许多其他电动汽车股票在这段时间内表现不佳，有些甚至比蔚来还要糟糕。</blockquote></p><p>Second, rising interest rates are a headwind for companies such as NIO. The company is not profitable yet but has a strong growth outlook, which should allow it to become profitable eventually. All of NIO's profits thus will be generated years or decades from now. In a zero-interest-rate environment, where discount rates in DCF models are low, these not-yet-profitable long-duration assets may be trading at high valuations. But since interest rates have risen sharply this year, including over the last couple of weeks, discount rates have risen, which has an especially large impact on growth stocks/long-duration assets, whereas less expensive value stocks aren't impacted as much.</p><p><blockquote>其次，利率上升对蔚来等公司来说是一个阻力。该公司尚未盈利，但具有强劲的增长前景，这应该会使其最终实现盈利。因此，蔚来的所有利润都将在几年或几十年后产生。在零利率环境下，DCF模型中的贴现率较低，这些尚未盈利的长期资产可能以高估值交易。但由于今年利率大幅上升，包括过去几周，贴现率上升，这对成长型股票/长期资产的影响尤其大，而较便宜的价值型股票受到的影响则不大。</blockquote></p><p>On top of that, the market has also become more worried about Chinese equities in general, due to geopolitical tensions, and it is nevertheless a macro risk for companies such as NIO. It should be noted that many US-based companies could be highly impacted by growing tensions as well, such as Tesla with its large China footprint, or Apple (AAPL) that generates billions of dollars in revenue in China.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，由于地缘政治紧张局势，市场对中国股市总体上也变得更加担忧，但这对蔚来等公司来说仍然是一个宏观风险。应该指出的是，许多美国公司也可能受到日益加剧的紧张局势的严重影响，例如在中国拥有庞大业务的特斯拉，或在中国创造数十亿美元收入的苹果（AAPL）。</blockquote></p><p>NIO has also been impacted by some company-specific items, such as its weaker-than-expected growth in recent months. During September, the most recent month we have data for, NIO's deliveries totaled 10,900 vehicles. That's just up by 2% year over year. Q3 numbers overall were better, but with a 29% year-over-year growth rate NIO grew less than the overall EV market in China, and it underperformed competitors such as BYD (OTCPK: BYDDY), which delivered growth of close to 200% in the same time frame. NIO's smaller peers, such as XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) also did not grow their sales as much as the market, thus NIO was not the only EV player that saw its sales growth rate dip. Nevertheless, market share losses aren't positive, and BYD has shown that it was possible for Chinese EV players to grow considerably in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来还受到了一些公司特定项目的影响，例如近几个月的增长弱于预期。9月份，即我们有数据的最近一个月，蔚来的交付量总计10,900辆。同比仅增长2%。第三季度的数据总体较好，但蔚来的同比增长率为29%，低于中国整体电动汽车市场，其表现也逊于比亚迪（OTCPK：BYDDY）等竞争对手，后者的增长率接近200%在同一时间范围内。蔚来规模较小的同行，如小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）的销量增长也没有市场那么快，因此蔚来并不是唯一一家销量增长率下降的电动汽车公司。尽管如此，市场份额的损失并不乐观，比亚迪已经表明，中国电动汽车企业近几个月有可能大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p>NIO's management has stated that the not overly high delivery growth rate was caused by supply chain issues and that there is not a demand problem. That's good news, as supply chain issues can and will be solved, especially once COVID measures in China ease. As long as NIO's brand remains strong and there is demand for its vehicles, the underwhelming deliveries growth rate thus looks like a temporary issue. It's nevertheless clear that other EV players, mainly BYD, have apparently managed to handle supply chain issues better, which could be due to BYD's larger size that allows for more experience in sourcing material from different suppliers, etc.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来管理层曾表示，交付增速不算太高是供应链问题造成的，不存在需求问题。这是个好消息，因为供应链问题能够而且将会得到解决，特别是一旦中国的新冠疫情措施放松。只要蔚来的品牌保持强劲并且对其车辆有需求，那么低迷的交付增长率看起来只是暂时的问题。然而，很明显，其他电动汽车厂商，主要是比亚迪，显然已经更好地处理了供应链问题，这可能是由于比亚迪的规模更大，可以在从不同供应商采购材料等方面拥有更多经验。</blockquote></p><p><b>What Is NIO's Outlook?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来的前景如何？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>As an EV pureplay, NIO's market potential depends on the ongoing growth of the global EV market. Especially in NIO's home country, China, where growth has been excellent in the recent past. In China, around 20% of new vehicles are NEVs, or new energy vehicles. This primarily includes EVs (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) while other technologies such as hydrogen play a negligible role for now. With millions of EVs being sold in China alone (in September NEV sales totaled more than 600,000), and with that number growing at a rate of almost 100% year over year, there is a huge and rapidly expanding market opportunity in NIO's home country - the most important EV market in the world.</p><p><blockquote>作为纯电动汽车公司，蔚来的市场潜力取决于全球电动汽车市场的持续增长。尤其是在蔚来的祖国中国，中国最近的增长非常出色。在中国，大约20%的新车是新能源汽车。这主要包括电动汽车（插电式混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车），而氢等其他技术目前发挥的作用可以忽略不计。仅在中国就售出了数百万辆电动汽车（9月份新能源汽车销量总计超过60万辆），并且这一数字同比增长近100%，蔚来的祖国存在着巨大且快速扩张的市场机会国家——世界上最重要的电动汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p>NIO's vehicles are above-average in price and quality, which is why the company can't address all parts of the market. But even the premium market it addresses is very large and growing rapidly, showcased, for example, by Tesla's sales pace. NIO's production constraints should ease going forward, based on easing supply chain worries that I expect over the next couple of quarters as lockdown measures in China will hopefully wane eventually and since companies adapt to these issues over time.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的汽车在价格和质量上都高于平均水平，这就是为什么该公司无法满足市场的所有部分。但即使是它所针对的高端市场也非常大并且增长迅速，例如特斯拉的销售速度就证明了这一点。基于我预计未来几个季度供应链担忧的缓解，蔚来的生产限制应该会缓解，因为中国的封锁措施有望最终减弱，而且企业会随着时间的推移适应这些问题。</blockquote></p><p>NIO is also expanding outside of its home market, China. Recently, the company opened its first battery-swapping station in Germany, which is Europe's largest automobile market, where other EV companies also see a lot of potential - such as Tesla, which built a Gigafactory there. NIO had already been active in Norway before that, which is usually the first European market EV companies from outside of Europe expand to. Now, NIO is active in several European markets, including the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark, on top of the aforementioned Norway and Germany. The first model that was introduced in Europe is the ET7, NIO's high-end sedan, but NIO will introduce additional models over time. The company plans to build 20 swapping stations in Europe by the end of the year, which will introduce the vast European market to NIO's unique tech that differentiates it from other EV players where consumers have to accept long charging times, whereas NIO's battery swaps only require a couple of minutes, thereby providing a clear unique selling point that should be beneficial for NIO's potential to sell vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来也在向中国本土市场以外的地区扩张。最近，该公司在德国开设了第一个电池交换站，德国是欧洲最大的汽车市场，其他电动汽车公司也看到了德国的巨大潜力，例如特斯拉，它在德国建立了一座超级工厂。在此之前，蔚来已经活跃在挪威，挪威通常是欧洲以外电动汽车公司扩张的第一个欧洲市场。现在，除了前面提到的挪威语和德语之外，蔚来还活跃在几个欧洲市场，包括荷兰语、瑞典语和丹麦语。在欧洲推出的第一款车型是蔚来的高端轿车ET7，但随着时间的推移，蔚来将推出更多车型。该公司计划到今年年底在欧洲建立20个换电站，这将向广阔的欧洲市场介绍蔚来的独特技术，使其有别于其他消费者必须接受较长充电时间的电动汽车厂商，而蔚来的电池更换只需要几分钟，从而提供了一个明确的独特卖点，这应该有利于蔚来的汽车销售潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Between these factors, NIO should be able to grow its business very meaningfully over the next couple of years. Of course, revenues alone do not make a company a great investment, thus NIO will have to prove that it can also generate compelling profits over time. Thanks to the high prices for its vehicles, as it sells to the less price-sensitive premium market, that should be possible, although the exact timing when it will first become profitable is not yet known.</p><p><blockquote>在这些因素之间，蔚来应该能够在未来几年内非常有意义地发展其业务。当然，仅靠收入并不能让一家公司成为一项伟大的投资，因此蔚来必须证明，随着时间的推移，它也可以产生引人注目的利润。由于其车辆价格高昂，因为它销往对价格不太敏感的高端市场，这应该是可能的，尽管它首次盈利的确切时间尚不清楚。</blockquote></p><p>From a valuation basis, NIO does not look very expensive versus other EV players:</p><p><blockquote>从估值基础来看，与其他电动汽车公司相比，蔚来看起来并不是很昂贵：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2b729bebc2b8e3d904230bbdbf463a4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>XPeng is less expensive than NIO, but other relevant peers such as Li, Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are more expensive on a price-to-sales basis. Especially the three US-based peers, which are trading at way higher valuations than NIO, which makes NIO look attractive by comparison.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车的价格低于蔚来，但其他相关同行，如Li、特斯拉、Lucid和Rivian，按市销率计算价格更高。尤其是三家美国同行，它们的估值远高于蔚来，相比之下，这使得蔚来看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p><b>Is NIO Stock A Buy, Hold, Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票是买入、持有还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p>NIO is battling with some supply chain problems, which is why its growth in recent quarters wasn't overly strong. Still, NIO hit a new record in Q3, and delivered growth in the 30% range, which is far from bad. With the ongoing expansion in Europe, growth could accelerate going forward, especially when/if China eases its COVID policy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正在与一些供应链问题作斗争，这就是为什么其最近几个季度的增长并不太强劲。尽管如此，蔚来在第三季度创下了新纪录，并实现了30%的增长，这还算不错。随着欧洲的持续扩张，未来增长可能会加速，特别是当/如果中国放松其COVID政策。</blockquote></p><p>From a valuation perspective, NIO looks like one of the better EV players, as it trades at a hefty discount relative to many of its peers. That being said, there are some China-specific risks that investors should consider. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, an investment in Chinese companies such as NIO could be risky, although that would also impact American companies that are reliant on the Chinese market, such as Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，蔚来看起来是更好的电动汽车公司之一，因为它的交易价格相对于许多同行来说有很大的折扣。话虽如此，投资者应该考虑一些中国特有的风险。如果地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级，对蔚来等中国公司的投资可能存在风险，尽管这也会影响特斯拉等依赖中国市场的美国公司。</blockquote></p><p>Overall, NIO has some opportunities, but in the current environment of rising interest rates and macro uncertainties, it is far from a sure bet that NIO will rise in the near term. I thus am neutral when it comes to NIO right now.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，蔚来有一些机会，但在当前利率上升和宏观不确定性的环境下，远不能确定蔚来会在短期内崛起。因此，当谈到蔚来时，我现在是中立的。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548536-is-nio-stock-buy-during-dip\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO.SI":"蔚来","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548536-is-nio-stock-buy-during-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124445589","content_text":"SummaryNIO has seen its shares slump over the last year.Rising interest rates, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions are to blame.That being said, NIO continues to grow its business and its expansion to Europe has started.Article ThesisNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) has, like many other EV stocks, seen its shares decline quite a bit so far this year. This has made the stock a lot cheaper, relative to where NIO traded when its shares hit their highs last year. At the same time, NIO has made some operational progress and started its expansion into Europe. NIO isn't profitable yet, and thus may not be suitable for risk-averse investors. But its current valuation is not very demanding, and the company's growth potential is strong.Why Has NIO's Price Dipped?NIO has seen its share price decline by 72% over the last year. More recently, its share price performance has been far from great, too. Over the last month, NIO's stock price declined by a little over 40%, which destroyed more than $10 billion in market capitalization. There are several factors at play when it comes to explaining NIO's share price decline.First, the company had been trading at a rather high valuation last year, when the market was overly optimistic about EV stocks. NIO, along with stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Lucid (LCID), Rivian (RIVN), and so on, was trading at a very high valuation back then. Since then, enthusiasm has waned, which is why all of these and many additional EV stocks have performed badly in that time frame, some even worse than NIO.Second, rising interest rates are a headwind for companies such as NIO. The company is not profitable yet but has a strong growth outlook, which should allow it to become profitable eventually. All of NIO's profits thus will be generated years or decades from now. In a zero-interest-rate environment, where discount rates in DCF models are low, these not-yet-profitable long-duration assets may be trading at high valuations. But since interest rates have risen sharply this year, including over the last couple of weeks, discount rates have risen, which has an especially large impact on growth stocks/long-duration assets, whereas less expensive value stocks aren't impacted as much.On top of that, the market has also become more worried about Chinese equities in general, due to geopolitical tensions, and it is nevertheless a macro risk for companies such as NIO. It should be noted that many US-based companies could be highly impacted by growing tensions as well, such as Tesla with its large China footprint, or Apple (AAPL) that generates billions of dollars in revenue in China.NIO has also been impacted by some company-specific items, such as its weaker-than-expected growth in recent months. During September, the most recent month we have data for, NIO's deliveries totaled 10,900 vehicles. That's just up by 2% year over year. Q3 numbers overall were better, but with a 29% year-over-year growth rate NIO grew less than the overall EV market in China, and it underperformed competitors such as BYD (OTCPK: BYDDY), which delivered growth of close to 200% in the same time frame. NIO's smaller peers, such as XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) also did not grow their sales as much as the market, thus NIO was not the only EV player that saw its sales growth rate dip. Nevertheless, market share losses aren't positive, and BYD has shown that it was possible for Chinese EV players to grow considerably in recent months.NIO's management has stated that the not overly high delivery growth rate was caused by supply chain issues and that there is not a demand problem. That's good news, as supply chain issues can and will be solved, especially once COVID measures in China ease. As long as NIO's brand remains strong and there is demand for its vehicles, the underwhelming deliveries growth rate thus looks like a temporary issue. It's nevertheless clear that other EV players, mainly BYD, have apparently managed to handle supply chain issues better, which could be due to BYD's larger size that allows for more experience in sourcing material from different suppliers, etc.What Is NIO's Outlook?As an EV pureplay, NIO's market potential depends on the ongoing growth of the global EV market. Especially in NIO's home country, China, where growth has been excellent in the recent past. In China, around 20% of new vehicles are NEVs, or new energy vehicles. This primarily includes EVs (plug-in hybrids and BEVs) while other technologies such as hydrogen play a negligible role for now. With millions of EVs being sold in China alone (in September NEV sales totaled more than 600,000), and with that number growing at a rate of almost 100% year over year, there is a huge and rapidly expanding market opportunity in NIO's home country - the most important EV market in the world.NIO's vehicles are above-average in price and quality, which is why the company can't address all parts of the market. But even the premium market it addresses is very large and growing rapidly, showcased, for example, by Tesla's sales pace. NIO's production constraints should ease going forward, based on easing supply chain worries that I expect over the next couple of quarters as lockdown measures in China will hopefully wane eventually and since companies adapt to these issues over time.NIO is also expanding outside of its home market, China. Recently, the company opened its first battery-swapping station in Germany, which is Europe's largest automobile market, where other EV companies also see a lot of potential - such as Tesla, which built a Gigafactory there. NIO had already been active in Norway before that, which is usually the first European market EV companies from outside of Europe expand to. Now, NIO is active in several European markets, including the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark, on top of the aforementioned Norway and Germany. The first model that was introduced in Europe is the ET7, NIO's high-end sedan, but NIO will introduce additional models over time. The company plans to build 20 swapping stations in Europe by the end of the year, which will introduce the vast European market to NIO's unique tech that differentiates it from other EV players where consumers have to accept long charging times, whereas NIO's battery swaps only require a couple of minutes, thereby providing a clear unique selling point that should be beneficial for NIO's potential to sell vehicles.Between these factors, NIO should be able to grow its business very meaningfully over the next couple of years. Of course, revenues alone do not make a company a great investment, thus NIO will have to prove that it can also generate compelling profits over time. Thanks to the high prices for its vehicles, as it sells to the less price-sensitive premium market, that should be possible, although the exact timing when it will first become profitable is not yet known.From a valuation basis, NIO does not look very expensive versus other EV players:Data by YChartsXPeng is less expensive than NIO, but other relevant peers such as Li, Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are more expensive on a price-to-sales basis. Especially the three US-based peers, which are trading at way higher valuations than NIO, which makes NIO look attractive by comparison.Is NIO Stock A Buy, Hold, Or Sell?NIO is battling with some supply chain problems, which is why its growth in recent quarters wasn't overly strong. Still, NIO hit a new record in Q3, and delivered growth in the 30% range, which is far from bad. With the ongoing expansion in Europe, growth could accelerate going forward, especially when/if China eases its COVID policy.From a valuation perspective, NIO looks like one of the better EV players, as it trades at a hefty discount relative to many of its peers. That being said, there are some China-specific risks that investors should consider. If geopolitical tensions escalate further, an investment in Chinese companies such as NIO could be risky, although that would also impact American companies that are reliant on the Chinese market, such as Tesla.Overall, NIO has some opportunities, but in the current environment of rising interest rates and macro uncertainties, it is far from a sure bet that NIO will rise in the near term. I thus am neutral when it comes to NIO right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"09866":0.9,"NIO.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4978,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":110,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7720305,"commentId":"7720305","gmtCreate":1667256837618,"gmtModify":1667256852755,"authorId":3473475347848614,"author":{"id":3473475347848614,"idStr":"3473475347848614","authorId":3473475347848614,"name":"笨孩破孩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361731739b025dcf1279855f19e9f80a","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665610596,"objectIdStr":"665610596","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"感谢你的分享","text":"感谢你的分享","html":"感谢你的分享","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7720298,"commentId":"7720298","gmtCreate":1667255718265,"gmtModify":1667255732203,"authorId":3586595458767964,"author":{"id":3586595458767964,"idStr":"3586595458767964","authorId":3586595458767964,"name":"小边546262","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ffa7433e6180eb8fd3851db7105d946","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665610596,"objectIdStr":"665610596","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好的","text":"好的","html":"好的","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7720293,"commentId":"7720293","gmtCreate":1667255663852,"gmtModify":1667255678704,"authorId":3586594928562404,"author":{"id":3586594928562404,"idStr":"3586594928562404","authorId":3586594928562404,"name":"大李546262","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b605a20f44f7febc084329da45204da0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665610596,"objectIdStr":"665610596","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"可以","text":"可以","html":"可以","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7720292,"commentId":"7720292","gmtCreate":1667255652242,"gmtModify":1667255665839,"authorId":3581646737212013,"author":{"id":3581646737212013,"idStr":"3581646737212013","authorId":3581646737212013,"name":"梓坚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc60101ae2a157654c11b14c2d659432","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acebb9722806729a38c10fe7cde46b94","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665610596,"objectIdStr":"665610596","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","html":"👍👍","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/665610596"}
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