按捺
2022-10-27
不一定太好
Apple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四季度财报看涨期权有何期待</blockquote>
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Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）将于10月27日星期四公布第四财季业绩。分析师目前估计，苹果将公布季度利润为每股1.27美元，营收为88.8 B美元。去年同期，苹果的销售额为834亿美元，每股收益为1.24美元。上个季度，苹果没有提供2022年第四季度的官方指引。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的三年里，苹果在与Android竞争对手的比赛中表现强劲。在本文中，我重点介绍了苹果的旗舰iPhone行业以及影响销售的竞争因素。我还根据宏观和微观问题讨论逆风和顺风。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple iPhone Performance</h2>Smartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果iPhone性能</h2>智能手机出货量最近停滞不前，首先是由于新冠疫情和封锁，现在是由于消费者在食品或燃料之间做出选择而导致的高通胀、经济衰退和裁员。尽管如此，图表1显示，在过去的11个季度中，苹果在全球智能手机市场的份额有所增加。</blockquote></p><p>Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.</p><p><blockquote>图1显示了每年9月至10月iPhone推出后第四季度的出货量（蓝色柱）及其周期性峰值。虽然很难辨别，但计算机生成的趋势线（蓝色虚线）显示了出货量的积极趋势。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，正如橙色圆点趋势线所示，苹果在智能手机市场的份额增加了更大的速度。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7f018a2b271c4f277338ac46e226fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 1: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.</p><p><blockquote>2019年至2021年间，苹果的智能手机相对于Android手机的单位份额逐年大幅增加，趋势线也进一步说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae716a6a657d8b3697f9be41ce396dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 2: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Tailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset Performance</h2>Qualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.</p><p><blockquote><h2>随着高通提高AP芯片组性能，顺风变为逆风</h2>高通(QCOM)最近因其旗舰AP（应用处理器）芯片组性能低于标准且电池寿命较差而受到批评。三星的Exynos 2200和联发科天玑9000被吹捧为比高通产品更好的移动芯片。</blockquote></p><p>To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，高通以超过50%的份额引领高端（>500美元）智能手机的Android AP芯片组市场，其次是三星（30%）和海思（20%）。高端领域是苹果竞争的领域。</blockquote></p><p>But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:</p><p><blockquote>但高通的Snapdragon最近的高端接入点在过去几年中因过热而出现问题。这些是：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm process</li></ul>Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>骁龙888-过热并基于三星5nm工艺打造</li><li>骁龙888+-过热并基于三星5nm工艺打造</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1-过热并基于三星4nm工艺构建</li><li>Snapdragon 8+Gen 1–基于台积电4nm工艺构建</li></ul>高通于2022年5月推出了骁龙8+Gen 1，作为年中升级。高通从三星（OTCPK：SSNLF）转到台积电（TSM）进行制造，结果是效率提升30%，CPU时钟速度整体提升10%。更新后的芯片组基于台积电的4纳米工艺节点，GPU时钟速度也提高了10%，每瓦性能明显提高了20%。</blockquote></p><p>The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.</p><p><blockquote>骁龙888和骁龙8 Gen 1的功耗也是三星加工芯片上的一个问题，导致Android高端电脑销量不佳。据多位评测博主透露，搭载骁龙8+处理器的安卓手机在功耗方面有了大幅提升，日常发热、续航以及游戏性能都有了大幅提升。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone Processor</h2>The iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end <b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>. The mainstream <b>iPhone 14</b>retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果在iPhone处理器上偷工减料</h2>iPhone的A16芯片于2022年推出，但仅用于高端<b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>.主流<b>iPhone 14</b>保留了去年的A15芯片，并进行了一些升级，该芯片用于iPhone 13和iPhone 13 Pro。A16 Bionic采用4纳米制造工艺，而不是A15 Bionic的5纳米。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.</p><p><blockquote>表1比较了骁龙8 Gen 1和骁龙8 Plus Gen 1与苹果芯片组的性能。如上表1所示，A16仿生芯片性能优于所有其他芯片，仅在Pro和Pro Max上可用。很能说明问题的是，iPhone 14和iPhone 13 Pro的基准测试几乎相同，这可能是iPhone 14销量低迷的原因。标准的iPhone 14型号基本上是iPhone 13的小幅升级版本——它们运行在相同的处理器（A15 Bionic）上，相机系统的升级很小，显示屏仍然不支持苹果的高刷新率促销。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10d2454e61d199b84fa0759863106c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Toms Hardware</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Toms硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Geekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.</p><p><blockquote>Geekbench测量单核和多核应用程序中的CPU效率。Geekbench ML通过机器学习来衡量神经处理单元的能力。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investor Takeaway</h2>Apple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者要点</h2>对于寻找遭受重创股票的投资者来说，苹果可能不是合适的股票，因为如图3所示，它已经击败了标准普尔科技精选行业指数(^IXT)，该指数在1年内为-20.8%相比之下，苹果公司为-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f8e750cee5319ab52c198b4f311173\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"432\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 3: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple achieved record June quarter "Services Sector" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果6月份季度“服务业”收入达到创纪录的196亿美元，增长12%，其中包括音乐、云服务、苹果护理和支付服务的历史收入记录。苹果目前在其平台上拥有超过8.6亿服务的付费订阅，仅在过去12个月内就增加了超过1.6亿。</blockquote></p><p>Chart<i>4</i>shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.</p><p><blockquote>图表<i>4</i>显示苹果2024财年的服务收入将达到1120亿美元。重要的是，服务（橙线）将从2021财年的18.7%增长至2024财年总收入的25.6%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b582ff4089b83f4de662e36b1069af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 4: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Chart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了苹果过去五年毛利率的飞速增长，上个季度达到43.3%。截至2017年9月至2021财年的毛利率平均为38.9%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365ea30a8131b327f0a51e4e31900f0\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 5: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL未来的一个主要问号是QCOM Snapdragon 8+Gen 1和Snapdragon 8+Gen 2的性能，这将在2022年11月中旬的年度Snapdragon峰会上正式宣布。过去一年，中国智能手机销售受阻，主要原因是新冠疫情封锁，但也因为三星代工厂生产的AP表现不佳。高通迁往台积电代工厂（该代工厂与生产苹果A16仿生处理器的同一家代工厂）可能会给苹果带来强大的阻力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四季度财报看涨期权有何期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四季度财报看涨期权有何期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-27 19:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related products is impacted by high inflation and interest rates, and recession fears.</li><li>Apple’s iPhone has outpaced shares of competitors in the global smartphone market in the past three years.</li><li>Qualcomm’s problematic Snapdragon 888/888+ and 8 application processors were a tailwind for Apple the past two years.</li><li>Qualcomm's redesigned 8+ Gen 1 and 2 will present much stronger tailwinds for high-end Android smartphone competitors.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132b791f73076873934ec53c5de070f5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>udra</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>苹果公布第四季度收益之际，消费相关产品的可自由支配资金受到高通胀和利率以及经济衰退担忧的影响。</li><li>过去三年，苹果的iPhone在全球智能手机市场的份额超过了竞争对手。</li><li>过去两年，高通有问题的骁龙888/888+和8应用处理器是苹果的顺风车。</li><li>高通重新设计的8+Gen 1和2将为高端Android智能手机竞争对手带来更强劲的推动力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>乌德拉</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, October 27. Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）将于10月27日星期四公布第四财季业绩。分析师目前估计，苹果将公布季度利润为每股1.27美元，营收为88.8 B美元。去年同期，苹果的销售额为834亿美元，每股收益为1.24美元。上个季度，苹果没有提供2022年第四季度的官方指引。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的三年里，苹果在与Android竞争对手的比赛中表现强劲。在本文中，我重点介绍了苹果的旗舰iPhone行业以及影响销售的竞争因素。我还根据宏观和微观问题讨论逆风和顺风。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple iPhone Performance</h2>Smartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果iPhone性能</h2>智能手机出货量最近停滞不前，首先是由于新冠疫情和封锁，现在是由于消费者在食品或燃料之间做出选择而导致的高通胀、经济衰退和裁员。尽管如此，图表1显示，在过去的11个季度中，苹果在全球智能手机市场的份额有所增加。</blockquote></p><p>Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.</p><p><blockquote>图1显示了每年9月至10月iPhone推出后第四季度的出货量（蓝色柱）及其周期性峰值。虽然很难辨别，但计算机生成的趋势线（蓝色虚线）显示了出货量的积极趋势。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，正如橙色圆点趋势线所示，苹果在智能手机市场的份额增加了更大的速度。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7f018a2b271c4f277338ac46e226fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 1: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.</p><p><blockquote>2019年至2021年间，苹果的智能手机相对于Android手机的单位份额逐年大幅增加，趋势线也进一步说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae716a6a657d8b3697f9be41ce396dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 2: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Tailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset Performance</h2>Qualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.</p><p><blockquote><h2>随着高通提高AP芯片组性能，顺风变为逆风</h2>高通(QCOM)最近因其旗舰AP（应用处理器）芯片组性能低于标准且电池寿命较差而受到批评。三星的Exynos 2200和联发科天玑9000被吹捧为比高通产品更好的移动芯片。</blockquote></p><p>To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，高通以超过50%的份额引领高端（>500美元）智能手机的Android AP芯片组市场，其次是三星（30%）和海思（20%）。高端领域是苹果竞争的领域。</blockquote></p><p>But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:</p><p><blockquote>但高通的Snapdragon最近的高端接入点在过去几年中因过热而出现问题。这些是：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm process</li></ul>Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>骁龙888-过热并基于三星5nm工艺打造</li><li>骁龙888+-过热并基于三星5nm工艺打造</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1-过热并基于三星4nm工艺构建</li><li>Snapdragon 8+Gen 1–基于台积电4nm工艺构建</li></ul>高通于2022年5月推出了骁龙8+Gen 1，作为年中升级。高通从三星（OTCPK：SSNLF）转到台积电（TSM）进行制造，结果是效率提升30%，CPU时钟速度整体提升10%。更新后的芯片组基于台积电的4纳米工艺节点，GPU时钟速度也提高了10%，每瓦性能明显提高了20%。</blockquote></p><p>The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.</p><p><blockquote>骁龙888和骁龙8 Gen 1的功耗也是三星加工芯片上的一个问题，导致Android高端电脑销量不佳。据多位评测博主透露，搭载骁龙8+处理器的安卓手机在功耗方面有了大幅提升，日常发热、续航以及游戏性能都有了大幅提升。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone Processor</h2>The iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end <b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>. The mainstream <b>iPhone 14</b>retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果在iPhone处理器上偷工减料</h2>iPhone的A16芯片于2022年推出，但仅用于高端<b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>.主流<b>iPhone 14</b>保留了去年的A15芯片，并进行了一些升级，该芯片用于iPhone 13和iPhone 13 Pro。A16 Bionic采用4纳米制造工艺，而不是A15 Bionic的5纳米。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.</p><p><blockquote>表1比较了骁龙8 Gen 1和骁龙8 Plus Gen 1与苹果芯片组的性能。如上表1所示，A16仿生芯片性能优于所有其他芯片，仅在Pro和Pro Max上可用。很能说明问题的是，iPhone 14和iPhone 13 Pro的基准测试几乎相同，这可能是iPhone 14销量低迷的原因。标准的iPhone 14型号基本上是iPhone 13的小幅升级版本——它们运行在相同的处理器（A15 Bionic）上，相机系统的升级很小，显示屏仍然不支持苹果的高刷新率促销。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10d2454e61d199b84fa0759863106c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Toms Hardware</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Toms硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Geekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.</p><p><blockquote>Geekbench测量单核和多核应用程序中的CPU效率。Geekbench ML通过机器学习来衡量神经处理单元的能力。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investor Takeaway</h2>Apple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者要点</h2>对于寻找遭受重创股票的投资者来说，苹果可能不是合适的股票，因为如图3所示，它已经击败了标准普尔科技精选行业指数(^IXT)，该指数在1年内为-20.8%相比之下，苹果公司为-0.1%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f8e750cee5319ab52c198b4f311173\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"432\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 3: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple achieved record June quarter "Services Sector" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果6月份季度“服务业”收入达到创纪录的196亿美元，增长12%，其中包括音乐、云服务、苹果护理和支付服务的历史收入记录。苹果目前在其平台上拥有超过8.6亿服务的付费订阅，仅在过去12个月内就增加了超过1.6亿。</blockquote></p><p>Chart<i>4</i>shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.</p><p><blockquote>图表<i>4</i>显示苹果2024财年的服务收入将达到1120亿美元。重要的是，服务（橙线）将从2021财年的18.7%增长至2024财年总收入的25.6%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b582ff4089b83f4de662e36b1069af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 4: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Chart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了苹果过去五年毛利率的飞速增长，上个季度达到43.3%。截至2017年9月至2021财年的毛利率平均为38.9%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365ea30a8131b327f0a51e4e31900f0\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 5: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL未来的一个主要问号是QCOM Snapdragon 8+Gen 1和Snapdragon 8+Gen 2的性能，这将在2022年11月中旬的年度Snapdragon峰会上正式宣布。过去一年，中国智能手机销售受阻，主要原因是新冠疫情封锁，但也因为三星代工厂生产的AP表现不佳。高通迁往台积电代工厂（该代工厂与生产苹果A16仿生处理器的同一家代工厂）可能会给苹果带来强大的阻力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4549526-apple-what-to-expect-from-apples-fiscal-q4-earnings-call\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4549526-apple-what-to-expect-from-apples-fiscal-q4-earnings-call","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278089506","content_text":"SummaryApple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related products is impacted by high inflation and interest rates, and recession fears.Apple’s iPhone has outpaced shares of competitors in the global smartphone market in the past three years.Qualcomm’s problematic Snapdragon 888/888+ and 8 application processors were a tailwind for Apple the past two years.Qualcomm's redesigned 8+ Gen 1 and 2 will present much stronger tailwinds for high-end Android smartphone competitors.udraApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, October 27. Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.Apple iPhone PerformanceSmartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.Chart 1: The Information NetworkOn a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.Chart 2: The Information NetworkTailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset PerformanceQualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm processSnapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm processSnapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm processSnapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm processQualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone ProcessorThe iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end iPhone 14 Pro. The mainstream iPhone 14retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.Toms HardwareGeekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.Investor TakeawayApple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.Chart 3: YChartsApple achieved record June quarter \"Services Sector\" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.Chart4shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.Chart 4: The Information NetworkChart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.Chart 5: YChartsA main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2880,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/665913750"}
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