按捺
2022-10-27
不一定太好
Apple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四财季收益看涨期权有何期待</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":665913750,"tweetId":"665913750","gmtCreate":1666879409570,"gmtModify":1666879412576,"author":{"id":3571787402392083,"idStr":"3571787402392083","authorId":3571787402392083,"authorIdStr":"3571787402392083","name":"按捺","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106bdd2ab7b0800d9949e20ea3819eac","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>不一定太好</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>不一定太好</p></body></html>","text":"不一定太好","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665913750","repostId":2278089506,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2278089506","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666871947,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2278089506?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-27 19:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四财季收益看涨期权有何期待</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278089506","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related prod","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related products is impacted by high inflation and interest rates, and recession fears.</li><li>Apple’s iPhone has outpaced shares of competitors in the global smartphone market in the past three years.</li><li>Qualcomm’s problematic Snapdragon 888/888+ and 8 application processors were a tailwind for Apple the past two years.</li><li>Qualcomm's redesigned 8+ Gen 1 and 2 will present much stronger tailwinds for high-end Android smartphone competitors.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132b791f73076873934ec53c5de070f5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>udra</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>苹果公布第四季度财报之际，消费相关产品的可自由支配资金受到高通胀和利率以及经济衰退担忧的影响。</li><li>在过去三年中，苹果的 iPhone 在全球智能手机市场的份额超过了竞争对手。</li><li>过去两年，高通问题重重的骁龙 888/888+ 和 8 款应用处理器一直是苹果的顺风车。</li><li>高通重新设计的8+第一代和第二代将为高端Android智能手机竞争对手带来更强劲的推动力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>乌德拉</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, October 27. Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）将于 10 月 27 日星期四公布第四财季业绩。分析师目前估计，苹果将公布每股 1.27 美元的季度利润，营收为 88.8B 美元。去年同期，苹果每股收益 1.24 美元，销售额为 83.4B 美元。上季度，苹果没有提供 2022 年第四季度的官方指导。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的三年里，苹果在与Android竞争对手的比赛中表现出色。在这篇文章中，我将重点关注苹果的旗舰iPhone领域以及影响销售的竞争因素。我还根据宏观和微观问题讨论逆风和顺风。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple iPhone Performance</h2>Smartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果iPhone性能</h2>智能手机出货量最近停滞不前，首先是由于新冠疫情和封锁，现在是由于高通胀、经济衰退和裁员，因为消费者在食品或燃料之间做出选择。尽管如此，图表1显示，在过去11个季度中，苹果在全球智能手机市场的份额有所增加。</blockquote></p><p>Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.</p><p><blockquote>图 1 显示了每年 9 月至 10 月推出 iPhone 后第四季度的单位出货量（蓝色栏）及其周期性峰值。虽然很难辨别，但计算机生成的趋势线（蓝色虚线）显示了出货量的积极趋势。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在智能手机市场的份额以更大的速度增长，如橙色虚线趋势线所示。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7f018a2b271c4f277338ac46e226fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 1: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年至2021年期间，苹果每年都显著增加了智能手机相对于Android手机的份额，趋势线也进一步说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae716a6a657d8b3697f9be41ce396dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 2: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Tailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset Performance</h2>Qualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.</p><p><blockquote><h2>随着高通提高 AP 芯片组性能，顺风变成逆风</h2>高通（QCOM）最近因其旗舰AP（应用处理器）芯片组提供低于标准的性能和糟糕的电池寿命而受到批评。三星的Exynos 2200和联发科天玑9000被吹捧为比高通产品更好的移动芯片。</blockquote></p><p>To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，高通在高端（>500美元）智能手机的Android AP芯片组市场处于领先地位，市场份额超过50%，其次是三星，市场份额为30%，海思占20%。高端领域是苹果的竞争领域。</blockquote></p><p>But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:</p><p><blockquote>但高通骁龙最近的高端接入点在过去几年中一直存在过热问题。这些是：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm process</li></ul>Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>骁龙 888 - 过热，基于三星 5nm 工艺打造</li><li>骁龙 888+ - 过热，基于三星 5nm 工艺打造</li><li>骁龙 8 Gen 1 - 过热，基于三星 4nm 工艺打造</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - 搭载台积电 4nm 工艺</li></ul>高通于2022年5月推出了骁龙8+Gen 1，作为年中升级。高通从三星 (OTCPK:SSNLF) 转向台积电 (TSM) 进行制造，声称因此效率提高了 30%，CPU 时钟速度全面提高了 10%。更新后的芯片组基于台积电的4nm工艺节点，GPU时钟速度提高了10%，每瓦性能明显提高了20%。</blockquote></p><p>The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.</p><p><blockquote>骁龙888和骁龙8 Gen 1的功耗也一直是三星加工芯片上的一个问题，导致Android高端电脑销量不佳。据几位评测博主透露，搭载骁龙8+处理器的安卓手机在功耗方面有了很大的提升，日常发热、续航、游戏性能都有了很大的提升。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone Processor</h2>The iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end <b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>. The mainstream <b>iPhone 14</b>retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果在 iPhone 处理器上偷工减料</h2>iPhone的A16芯片于2022年推出，但仅放在高端<b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>.主流<b>苹果14</b>保留了去年的A15芯片，并进行了一些升级，该芯片用于iPhone 13和iPhone 13 Pro。A16仿生采用4纳米制造工艺，而不是A15仿生的5纳米制造工艺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.</p><p><blockquote>表1比较了骁龙8 Gen 1和骁龙8 Plus Gen 1与苹果芯片组的性能。如上表1所示，A16仿生芯片的性能优于所有其他芯片，并且仅在Pro和Pro Max上可用。显而易见的是，iPhone 14和iPhone 13 Pro的基准测试几乎完全相同，这可能是iPhone 14销量低迷的原因。标准的iPhone 14机型基本上是iPhone 13的轻微升级版本——它们运行在相同的处理器（A15仿生）上，对摄像头系统的升级很小，显示屏仍然不支持苹果的高刷新率，促销。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10d2454e61d199b84fa0759863106c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Toms Hardware</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>汤姆斯硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Geekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.</p><p><blockquote>Geekbench测量单核和多核应用中的CPU效率。Geekbench ML通过机器学习来衡量神经处理单元的能力。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investor Takeaway</h2>Apple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者要点</h2>对于正在寻找被击败股票的投资者来说，苹果可能不是合适的股票，因为如图 3 所示，它已经击败了标准普尔技术精选行业指数 (^IXT)，该指数在 1 年内为 -20.8%，而 AAPL 为 -0.1%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f8e750cee5319ab52c198b4f311173\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"432\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 3: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple achieved record June quarter "Services Sector" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 6 月份季度“服务部门”收入达到创纪录的 196 亿美元，增长 12%，其中音乐、云服务、苹果服务和支付服务的收入创历史新高。苹果目前在其平台上的所有服务中拥有超过8.6亿次付费订阅，仅在过去12个月中就增加了超过1.6亿次。</blockquote></p><p>Chart<i>4</i>shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.</p><p><blockquote>图表<i>4</i>显示 2024 财年苹果服务收入将达到 1120 亿美元。重要的是，服务将从2021财年的18.7%增长到2024财年总收入的25.6%（橙线）。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b582ff4089b83f4de662e36b1069af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 4: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Chart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.</p><p><blockquote>图表 5 显示了苹果在过去五年中的毛利率迅速上升，上一季度达到了 43.3%。截至2017年9月至2021年的财年，其毛利率平均为38.9%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365ea30a8131b327f0a51e4e31900f0\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 5: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL未来的一个主要问号是QCOM骁龙8+Gen 1和骁龙8+Gen 2的性能，这将在2022年11月中旬的年度骁龙峰会上正式公布。过去一年，中国智能手机销售受到阻碍，主要原因是新冠疫情封锁，但也是因为三星代工厂生产的 AP 表现不佳。QCOM搬到台积电的代工厂，台积电是制造苹果A16仿生处理器的同一家代工厂，这对苹果来说可能是一个强大的阻力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四财季收益看涨期权有何期待</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: What To Expect From Apple's Fiscal Q4 Earnings Call<blockquote>苹果：对苹果第四财季收益看涨期权有何期待</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-27 19:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related products is impacted by high inflation and interest rates, and recession fears.</li><li>Apple’s iPhone has outpaced shares of competitors in the global smartphone market in the past three years.</li><li>Qualcomm’s problematic Snapdragon 888/888+ and 8 application processors were a tailwind for Apple the past two years.</li><li>Qualcomm's redesigned 8+ Gen 1 and 2 will present much stronger tailwinds for high-end Android smartphone competitors.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/132b791f73076873934ec53c5de070f5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>udra</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>苹果公布第四季度财报之际，消费相关产品的可自由支配资金受到高通胀和利率以及经济衰退担忧的影响。</li><li>在过去三年中，苹果的 iPhone 在全球智能手机市场的份额超过了竞争对手。</li><li>过去两年，高通问题重重的骁龙 888/888+ 和 8 款应用处理器一直是苹果的顺风车。</li><li>高通重新设计的8+第一代和第二代将为高端Android智能手机竞争对手带来更强劲的推动力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>乌德拉</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, October 27. Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）将于 10 月 27 日星期四公布第四财季业绩。分析师目前估计，苹果将公布每股 1.27 美元的季度利润，营收为 88.8B 美元。去年同期，苹果每股收益 1.24 美元，销售额为 83.4B 美元。上季度，苹果没有提供 2022 年第四季度的官方指导。</blockquote></p><p>Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的三年里，苹果在与Android竞争对手的比赛中表现出色。在这篇文章中，我将重点关注苹果的旗舰iPhone领域以及影响销售的竞争因素。我还根据宏观和微观问题讨论逆风和顺风。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple iPhone Performance</h2>Smartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果iPhone性能</h2>智能手机出货量最近停滞不前，首先是由于新冠疫情和封锁，现在是由于高通胀、经济衰退和裁员，因为消费者在食品或燃料之间做出选择。尽管如此，图表1显示，在过去11个季度中，苹果在全球智能手机市场的份额有所增加。</blockquote></p><p>Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.</p><p><blockquote>图 1 显示了每年 9 月至 10 月推出 iPhone 后第四季度的单位出货量（蓝色栏）及其周期性峰值。虽然很难辨别，但计算机生成的趋势线（蓝色虚线）显示了出货量的积极趋势。</blockquote></p><p>More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，苹果在智能手机市场的份额以更大的速度增长，如橙色虚线趋势线所示。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7f018a2b271c4f277338ac46e226fb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 1: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.</p><p><blockquote>在2019年至2021年期间，苹果每年都显著增加了智能手机相对于Android手机的份额，趋势线也进一步说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae716a6a657d8b3697f9be41ce396dc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 2: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Tailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset Performance</h2>Qualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.</p><p><blockquote><h2>随着高通提高 AP 芯片组性能，顺风变成逆风</h2>高通（QCOM）最近因其旗舰AP（应用处理器）芯片组提供低于标准的性能和糟糕的电池寿命而受到批评。三星的Exynos 2200和联发科天玑9000被吹捧为比高通产品更好的移动芯片。</blockquote></p><p>To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，高通在高端（>500美元）智能手机的Android AP芯片组市场处于领先地位，市场份额超过50%，其次是三星，市场份额为30%，海思占20%。高端领域是苹果的竞争领域。</blockquote></p><p>But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:</p><p><blockquote>但高通骁龙最近的高端接入点在过去几年中一直存在过热问题。这些是：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm process</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm process</li></ul>Qualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>骁龙 888 - 过热，基于三星 5nm 工艺打造</li><li>骁龙 888+ - 过热，基于三星 5nm 工艺打造</li><li>骁龙 8 Gen 1 - 过热，基于三星 4nm 工艺打造</li><li>Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - 搭载台积电 4nm 工艺</li></ul>高通于2022年5月推出了骁龙8+Gen 1，作为年中升级。高通从三星 (OTCPK:SSNLF) 转向台积电 (TSM) 进行制造，声称因此效率提高了 30%，CPU 时钟速度全面提高了 10%。更新后的芯片组基于台积电的4nm工艺节点，GPU时钟速度提高了10%，每瓦性能明显提高了20%。</blockquote></p><p>The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.</p><p><blockquote>骁龙888和骁龙8 Gen 1的功耗也一直是三星加工芯片上的一个问题，导致Android高端电脑销量不佳。据几位评测博主透露，搭载骁龙8+处理器的安卓手机在功耗方面有了很大的提升，日常发热、续航、游戏性能都有了很大的提升。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone Processor</h2>The iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end <b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>. The mainstream <b>iPhone 14</b>retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.</p><p><blockquote><h2>苹果在 iPhone 处理器上偷工减料</h2>iPhone的A16芯片于2022年推出，但仅放在高端<b>iPhone 14 Pro</b>.主流<b>苹果14</b>保留了去年的A15芯片，并进行了一些升级，该芯片用于iPhone 13和iPhone 13 Pro。A16仿生采用4纳米制造工艺，而不是A15仿生的5纳米制造工艺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.</p><p><blockquote>表1比较了骁龙8 Gen 1和骁龙8 Plus Gen 1与苹果芯片组的性能。如上表1所示，A16仿生芯片的性能优于所有其他芯片，并且仅在Pro和Pro Max上可用。显而易见的是，iPhone 14和iPhone 13 Pro的基准测试几乎完全相同，这可能是iPhone 14销量低迷的原因。标准的iPhone 14机型基本上是iPhone 13的轻微升级版本——它们运行在相同的处理器（A15仿生）上，对摄像头系统的升级很小，显示屏仍然不支持苹果的高刷新率，促销。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10d2454e61d199b84fa0759863106c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"243\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Toms Hardware</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>汤姆斯硬件</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Geekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.</p><p><blockquote>Geekbench测量单核和多核应用中的CPU效率。Geekbench ML通过机器学习来衡量神经处理单元的能力。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investor Takeaway</h2>Apple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资者要点</h2>对于正在寻找被击败股票的投资者来说，苹果可能不是合适的股票，因为如图 3 所示，它已经击败了标准普尔技术精选行业指数 (^IXT)，该指数在 1 年内为 -20.8%，而 AAPL 为 -0.1%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0f8e750cee5319ab52c198b4f311173\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"432\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 3: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Apple achieved record June quarter "Services Sector" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 6 月份季度“服务部门”收入达到创纪录的 196 亿美元，增长 12%，其中音乐、云服务、苹果服务和支付服务的收入创历史新高。苹果目前在其平台上的所有服务中拥有超过8.6亿次付费订阅，仅在过去12个月中就增加了超过1.6亿次。</blockquote></p><p>Chart<i>4</i>shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.</p><p><blockquote>图表<i>4</i>显示 2024 财年苹果服务收入将达到 1120 亿美元。重要的是，服务将从2021财年的18.7%增长到2024财年总收入的25.6%（橙线）。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b582ff4089b83f4de662e36b1069af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 4: The Information Network</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4：信息网络</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Chart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.</p><p><blockquote>图表 5 显示了苹果在过去五年中的毛利率迅速上升，上一季度达到了 43.3%。截至2017年9月至2021年的财年，其毛利率平均为38.9%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b365ea30a8131b327f0a51e4e31900f0\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Chart 5: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>A main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL未来的一个主要问号是QCOM骁龙8+Gen 1和骁龙8+Gen 2的性能，这将在2022年11月中旬的年度骁龙峰会上正式公布。过去一年，中国智能手机销售受到阻碍，主要原因是新冠疫情封锁，但也是因为三星代工厂生产的 AP 表现不佳。QCOM搬到台积电的代工厂，台积电是制造苹果A16仿生处理器的同一家代工厂，这对苹果来说可能是一个强大的阻力。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4549526-apple-what-to-expect-from-apples-fiscal-q4-earnings-call\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4549526-apple-what-to-expect-from-apples-fiscal-q4-earnings-call","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278089506","content_text":"SummaryApple announces F4Q earnings during a time when discretionary money for consumer-related products is impacted by high inflation and interest rates, and recession fears.Apple’s iPhone has outpaced shares of competitors in the global smartphone market in the past three years.Qualcomm’s problematic Snapdragon 888/888+ and 8 application processors were a tailwind for Apple the past two years.Qualcomm's redesigned 8+ Gen 1 and 2 will present much stronger tailwinds for high-end Android smartphone competitors.udraApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday, October 27. Analysts currently estimate that Apple will report a quarterly profit of $1.27 a share on $88.8B in revenue. During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $1.24 a share on sales of $83.4B. Last quarter, Appledidn't provide official guidance for Q4 2022.Apple has had a strong showing against Android competitors in the past three years. In this article, I focus on Apple's flagship iPhone sector and the competitive factors that are impacting sales. I also discuss headwinds and tailwinds based on macro and micro issues.Apple iPhone PerformanceSmartphone shipments have stalled lately, first amid Covid and lockdowns, and now from high inflation, recession, and layoffs as consumers choose between food or fuel. Nevertheless, Chart 1 shows that over the last 11 quarters, Apple has increased its share in the global smartphone market.Chart 1 shows UNIT shipments (blue column) and its cyclical peak in Q4 following iPhone introductions in September-October of each year. While difficult to discern, the computer generated trendline (blue dotted line) shows a positive trend in shipments.More importantly, Apple's share of the smartphone market has increased at a greater rate, as shown as the orange dotted trendline.Chart 1: The Information NetworkOn a yearly basis between 2019-2021, Apple has significantly increased its UNIT share of smartphones versus Android phones, also further illustrated by the trendlines.Chart 2: The Information NetworkTailwinds Changing to Headwinds As Qualcomm Improves AP Chipset PerformanceQualcomm (QCOM) has been criticized lately for delivering sub-par performance and poor battery life with its flagship AP (application processor) chipsets. Samsung's Exynos 2200 and Mediatek Dimensity 9000 are being touted as better mobile chips than Qualcomm's offerings.To be clear, Qualcomm leads the Android AP chipset market for premium (>$500) smartphones with more than a 50% share, followed by Samsung with a 30% share and HiSilicon with a 20% share. The premium sector is where Apple competes.But Qualcomm's Snapdragon recent high-end APs have been problematic in the past few years from overheating. These are:Snapdragon 888 - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm processSnapdragon 888+ - overheating and built on Samsung 5nm processSnapdragon 8 Gen 1 - overheating and built on Samsung 4nm processSnapdragon 8+ Gen 1 - built on TSMC 4nm processQualcomm launched the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1 in May 2022 as a mid-year upgrade. Qualcomm switched from Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) to TSMC (TSM) for manufacturing, claiming a 30% efficiency gain and 10% CPU clock speed improvements across the board as a result. The refreshed chipset, built on TSMC's 4nm process node, also gains a 10% GPU clock speed boost and an apparent 20% boost to performance-per-watt.The power consumption of Snapdragon 888 and Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 has also been an issue on the Samsung processed chips, resulting in poor sales of Android high-end computers. According to several evaluation bloggers, Android phones equipped with Snapdragon 8+ processors have greatly improved their power consumption, and their daily heat, endurance and game performance have been greatly improved.Apple Cutting Corners on iPhone ProcessorThe iPhone's A16 chip was introduced in 2022 but it is only put on the higher end iPhone 14 Pro. The mainstream iPhone 14retains last year's A15 chip with some upgrades, which was used in the iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro. The A16 Bionic features a 4nm manufacturing process instead of the 5nm of the A15 Bionic.Table 1 compares the performance of Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 8 Plus Gen 1 to Apple's chipset. As shown in Table 1 above, the A16 Bionic chip outperforms all others and is only available on the Pro and Pro Max. Clearly telling is that the benchmarks of the iPhone 14 and iPhone 13 Pro are nearly identical and may be the reason for the lackluster sales of the iPhone 14. The standard iPhone 14 models are basically slightly upgraded versions of the iPhone 13 - they run on the same processor (A15 Bionic), the upgrades to the camera system are minor, and the displays still don't support Apple's high-refresh-rate, ProMotion.Toms HardwareGeekbench measures CPU efficiency, both in single-core and multicore applications. Geekbench ML measures the neural processing unit's capabilities with machine learning.Investor TakeawayApple may not be the right stock for investors who are looking for beaten down stocks, because as show in Chart 3, it has beaten the S&P Technology Select Sector Index (^IXT), which is -20.8% for the 1-year period compared to AAPL at -0.1%.Chart 3: YChartsApple achieved record June quarter \"Services Sector\" revenue of $19.6 billion, up 12% and including all-time revenue records for Music, Cloud Services, Apple Care and Payment Services. Apple now has more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on its platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.Chart4shows Apple's services revenue reaching $112 billion in FY 2024. Importantly, services will grow (orange line) to 25.6% of total revenues in FY2024, up from 18.7% in FY2021.Chart 4: The Information NetworkChart 5 shows Apple's meteoric rise in gross margins over the past five-year period reaching 43.3% in the past quarter. It's gross profit margin for fiscal years ending September 2017 to 2021 averaged 38.9%.Chart 5: YChartsA main question mark going forward for AAPL is the performance of the QCOM Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, and the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 2, which will be formally announced at its annual Snapdragon Summit event in mid-November 2022. Chinese smartphone sales have been stymied in the past year due primarily to Covid lockdowns, but also because of the underperformance of APs made at Samsung's foundry. The move by QCOM to TSMC's foundry, which is the same foundry making Apple's A16 Bionic processor, could be a strong headwind for Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/665913750"}
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