国之良栋
2022-10-09
投资者总是对股市充满了幻想，尤其是买股票的时候，想着赚多少多少，你要想着亏了怎么办？还有后手吗？你就不会冲动孤注一掷了。
全球股市“过山车”！节后A股能有“开门红”吗？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
BlackjackA
2022-10-09
BlackjackA
阅
0x街头艺术家
2022-10-09
0x街头艺术家
1
Ydy3000
2022-10-09
Ydy3000
好
拒绝游泳的鱼
2022-10-09
拒绝游泳的鱼
阅
kele126436
2022-10-09
kele126436
已阅
什么也没有了～
APP内打开
发表看法
11
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":666086106,"tweetId":"666086106","gmtCreate":1665284115105,"gmtModify":1665284117845,"author":{"id":3586813115727121,"idStr":"3586813115727121","authorId":3586813115727121,"authorIdStr":"3586813115727121","name":"国之良栋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d05dc1b67998000fec87bbf2ce7890a3","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>投资者总是对股市充满了幻想，尤其是买股票的时候，想着赚多少多少，你要想着亏了怎么办？还有后手吗？你就不会冲动孤注一掷了。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>投资者总是对股市充满了幻想，尤其是买股票的时候，想着赚多少多少，你要想着亏了怎么办？还有后手吗？你就不会冲动孤注一掷了。</p></body></html>","text":"投资者总是对股市充满了幻想，尤其是买股票的时候，想着赚多少多少，你要想着亏了怎么办？还有后手吗？你就不会冲动孤注一掷了。","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666086106","repostId":2274322122,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2274322122","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665277088,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2274322122?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-09 08:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球股市“过山车”！节后A股能有“开门红”吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274322122","media":"格隆汇","summary":"先扬后抑","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在中国国庆假期的七天时间里，海外股市可没有歇息。</p><p>全球股市在过去数个交易日出现了“先扬后抑”的走势，如过山车。</p><p>在海外市场整体波动下，假期结束后的A股又能否迎来节后“开门红”呢？</p><p><b>狂欢与调整并存，整体实现上涨</b></p><p>10月1日至7日，欧美股市先扬后抑，港股则出现了较大幅度反弹。</p><p>在10月份第一个交易日，外围市场普遍大涨，欧洲股市平均涨幅在3%以上，美股也出现了较大幅度反弹，港股在首个交易日最高涨了6%。</p><p>但全球股市随后出现回调。10月7日，受到美国就业数据超预期影响，投资者担心11月份美联储将继续加息75个基点，美股再现“黑色星期五”，三大股指齐跌，欧洲股市也出现下跌。</p><p>在拉高、走低之下，中国国庆七天长假中，道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普500以及欧洲STOXX600、日经225、澳洲标普200指数、韩国综合指数整体均为上涨行情，仅有俄罗斯MOEX指数小幅下跌在1%以内。</p><p><b>前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙</b>称，根据美国劳工部数据，美国9月失业率降至3.5%，就业市场保持强劲，就业人数增加26.3万人，这说明美国非农就业数据超出了预期，表明11月份美联储加息75个基点的可能性大大增加，这是欧美股市出现下跌的一个重要原因。</p><h3><b>A股节后能否“开门红”？</b></h3><p>国庆长假叠加周六日，A股一口气连着休市九天。周一重新开市，A股能否飘红？</p><p>据统计，2012年至2021年，上证指数在国庆假期后的前5个交易日上涨概率达70%，平均涨幅为1.29%，仅在2014年、2018年和2021年国庆假期后的前5个交易日出现下跌。</p><p><b>安信证券首席策略分析师林荣雄</b>表示，<b>近20年的数据显示，国庆假期前后A股存在明显的日历效应，节前经过较大调整的，节后大多出现上涨。</b>指数在近20年、近10年、近5年、近3年的节前一周交易上涨概率分别为40%、40%、40%、0，节后一周交易上涨的概率分别为75%、90%、80%、100%。从风格层面来看，金融、消费、大盘股板块占优。</p><p><b>华兴资本首席经济学家李宗光</b>认为，<b>在全球股市齐涨的大背景下，节后A股开盘第一天也大概率会迎来开门红。</b>不过，反弹持续性还需要观察，不宜太乐观。节前，A股走出了一波调整态势，除了美联储加息因素外，赛道股、白马股调整，海外上市民营开发商风险卷土重来，都是A股调整的重要因素。</p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>分析团队</b>认为，市场近期已经出现一定调整，但考虑到经济与企业盈利的弱势，以及海外不时发生的风险事件的影响，<b>预计市场在短期内仍将维持震荡</b>。当前A股已经具有非常高的投资性价比，未来发生大幅调整的可能性较低，因此当前正处于布局的窗口期。11月前后市场或将迎来中期拐点。</p><p><b>瑞士百达资产管理首席策略师卢伯乐（Luca Paolini）</b>在发表10月投资展望时称，随着全球货币政策紧缩和能源价格飙升继续削弱消费者信心和企业盈利增长，全球经济前景再度黯淡，而主要经济体正面临衰退。中国是唯一一个流动性较为宽松的国家。中国央行正在降低融资成本，并提供有针对性的宽松措施以重振信贷需求。</p><p><b>杨德龙</b>指出，从经济增长来看，三季度经济面出现了一定的复苏，和二季度相比经济增速出现了一定的回升，但是回升力度并不大，主要是影响经济复苏的一些因素并没有消除。随着国务院出台的一揽子稳经济增长的政策逐步落地，四季度经济面有望继续复苏。</p><p>在他看来，四季度随着经济面逐步复苏，市场的信心也有望得到一定的回升，A股市场有望迎来恢复性上涨的机会。“同时我们要对美联储加息的节奏以及国际局势，还有国内经济复苏的情况进行密切关注，影响市场的一些不利因素并没有完全消除，所以我们要密切地来跟踪这些因素的变化。”</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球股市“过山车”！节后A股能有“开门红”吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球股市“过山车”！节后A股能有“开门红”吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-09 08:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555407><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在中国国庆假期的七天时间里，海外股市可没有歇息。全球股市在过去数个交易日出现了“先扬后抑”的走势，如过山车。在海外市场整体波动下，假期结束后的A股又能否迎来节后“开门红”呢？狂欢与调整并存，整体实现上涨10月1日至7日，欧美股市先扬后抑，港股则出现了较大幅度反弹。在10月份第一个交易日，外围市场普遍大涨，欧洲股市平均涨幅在3%以上，美股也出现了较大幅度反弹，港股在首个交易日最高涨了6%。但全球股市...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555407\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a269cbedd1dee8f5783fa8ab20412d","relate_stocks":{"DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/555407","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2274322122","content_text":"在中国国庆假期的七天时间里，海外股市可没有歇息。全球股市在过去数个交易日出现了“先扬后抑”的走势，如过山车。在海外市场整体波动下，假期结束后的A股又能否迎来节后“开门红”呢？狂欢与调整并存，整体实现上涨10月1日至7日，欧美股市先扬后抑，港股则出现了较大幅度反弹。在10月份第一个交易日，外围市场普遍大涨，欧洲股市平均涨幅在3%以上，美股也出现了较大幅度反弹，港股在首个交易日最高涨了6%。但全球股市随后出现回调。10月7日，受到美国就业数据超预期影响，投资者担心11月份美联储将继续加息75个基点，美股再现“黑色星期五”，三大股指齐跌，欧洲股市也出现下跌。在拉高、走低之下，中国国庆七天长假中，道琼斯、纳斯达克、标普500以及欧洲STOXX600、日经225、澳洲标普200指数、韩国综合指数整体均为上涨行情，仅有俄罗斯MOEX指数小幅下跌在1%以内。前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙称，根据美国劳工部数据，美国9月失业率降至3.5%，就业市场保持强劲，就业人数增加26.3万人，这说明美国非农就业数据超出了预期，表明11月份美联储加息75个基点的可能性大大增加，这是欧美股市出现下跌的一个重要原因。A股节后能否“开门红”？国庆长假叠加周六日，A股一口气连着休市九天。周一重新开市，A股能否飘红？据统计，2012年至2021年，上证指数在国庆假期后的前5个交易日上涨概率达70%，平均涨幅为1.29%，仅在2014年、2018年和2021年国庆假期后的前5个交易日出现下跌。安信证券首席策略分析师林荣雄表示，近20年的数据显示，国庆假期前后A股存在明显的日历效应，节前经过较大调整的，节后大多出现上涨。指数在近20年、近10年、近5年、近3年的节前一周交易上涨概率分别为40%、40%、40%、0，节后一周交易上涨的概率分别为75%、90%、80%、100%。从风格层面来看，金融、消费、大盘股板块占优。华兴资本首席经济学家李宗光认为，在全球股市齐涨的大背景下，节后A股开盘第一天也大概率会迎来开门红。不过，反弹持续性还需要观察，不宜太乐观。节前，A股走出了一波调整态势，除了美联储加息因素外，赛道股、白马股调整，海外上市民营开发商风险卷土重来，都是A股调整的重要因素。光大证券分析团队认为，市场近期已经出现一定调整，但考虑到经济与企业盈利的弱势，以及海外不时发生的风险事件的影响，预计市场在短期内仍将维持震荡。当前A股已经具有非常高的投资性价比，未来发生大幅调整的可能性较低，因此当前正处于布局的窗口期。11月前后市场或将迎来中期拐点。瑞士百达资产管理首席策略师卢伯乐（Luca Paolini）在发表10月投资展望时称，随着全球货币政策紧缩和能源价格飙升继续削弱消费者信心和企业盈利增长，全球经济前景再度黯淡，而主要经济体正面临衰退。中国是唯一一个流动性较为宽松的国家。中国央行正在降低融资成本，并提供有针对性的宽松措施以重振信贷需求。杨德龙指出，从经济增长来看，三季度经济面出现了一定的复苏，和二季度相比经济增速出现了一定的回升，但是回升力度并不大，主要是影响经济复苏的一些因素并没有消除。随着国务院出台的一揽子稳经济增长的政策逐步落地，四季度经济面有望继续复苏。在他看来，四季度随着经济面逐步复苏，市场的信心也有望得到一定的回升，A股市场有望迎来恢复性上涨的机会。“同时我们要对美联储加息的节奏以及国际局势，还有国内经济复苏的情况进行密切关注，影响市场的一些不利因素并没有完全消除，所以我们要密切地来跟踪这些因素的变化。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.69,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4498,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":114,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7689239,"commentId":"7689239","gmtCreate":1665287516229,"gmtModify":1665287521585,"authorId":3532817874100207,"author":{"id":3532817874100207,"idStr":"3532817874100207","authorId":3532817874100207,"name":"BlackjackA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d68c1325e17cd23269e4fb6df8fc964b","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a0ce7a7fe8e0518b38aeef5c80667c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666086106,"objectIdStr":"666086106","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"阅","text":"阅","html":"阅","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7689226,"commentId":"7689226","gmtCreate":1665286891806,"gmtModify":1665286897462,"authorId":3463572936350186,"author":{"id":3463572936350186,"idStr":"3463572936350186","authorId":3463572936350186,"name":"0x街头艺术家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb6f79f0c0cfd76486dcf46172fbc655","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.41%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c5b6ed6e3b5dcb14f9ef3ceb365e412","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666086106,"objectIdStr":"666086106","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<span class=\"s1\">1</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">1</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">1</span>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7689222,"commentId":"7689222","gmtCreate":1665286856007,"gmtModify":1665286862844,"authorId":3555749694709375,"author":{"id":3555749694709375,"idStr":"3555749694709375","authorId":3555749694709375,"name":"Ydy3000","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52235495e4bce522ceb458389272592f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666086106,"objectIdStr":"666086106","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好","text":"好","html":"好","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7689206,"commentId":"7689206","gmtCreate":1665285658164,"gmtModify":1665285661879,"authorId":3472098980994884,"author":{"id":3472098980994884,"idStr":"3472098980994884","authorId":3472098980994884,"name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.74%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666086106,"objectIdStr":"666086106","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"阅","text":"阅","html":"阅","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0},{"id":7689199,"commentId":"7689199","gmtCreate":1665284478558,"gmtModify":1665284483672,"authorId":3492832248186501,"author":{"id":3492832248186501,"idStr":"3492832248186501","authorId":3492832248186501,"name":"kele126436","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dca78b3752cc2656e864402bc257174","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.15","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":666086106,"objectIdStr":"666086106","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"已阅","text":"已阅","html":"已阅","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/666086106"}
精彩评论