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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":667598937,"tweetId":"667598937","gmtCreate":1668995524829,"gmtModify":1668995527011,"author":{"id":3575414666461571,"idStr":"3575414666461571","authorId":3575414666461571,"authorIdStr":"3575414666461571","name":"TW1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":16,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like</body></html>","text":"Like","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667598937","repostId":1117170787,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117170787","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669002303,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117170787?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-21 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market<blockquote>美联储会议纪要可能对股市造成巨大打击</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117170787","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets a","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>The November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.</li><li>Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.</li></ul>It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market&#39;s celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.<blockquote><ul><li>11 月份美联储会议纪要将于周三下午发布。</li><li>债券和货币市场已经在为非常鹰派的时刻做准备。</li><li>美联储董事会成员似乎认为利率可能会升至 5%。</li></ul>这将是一个因假期而缩短的交易周，但不会缺少新闻事件。随着 11 月美联储会议纪要的发布，这一重大新闻事件将于周三下午 2 点举行。这些会议纪要可能会扭转 10 月份 CPI 报告低于预期后股市的庆祝情绪，因为美联储有不同的观点，并且已经在大力反击。</blockquote>Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn&#39;t going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.<blockquote>自11月10日发布CPI报告以来，美联储的言论非常明确——加息放缓并不意味着最终利率下降，好于预期的CPI报告也不会改变货币政策的路径。最终，这些演讲者似乎认为利率会更高。</blockquote>St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储理事詹姆斯·布拉德表示，对货币政策的鸽派假设证明了进一步加息是合理的。</blockquote>The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.<blockquote>11 月 FOMC 声明表明未来加息步伐可能会放缓，而 FOMC 新闻发布会则表明 9 月份最终利率可能高于此前预期。自 FOMC 会议以来，许多 FOMC 成员都提出了强有力的理由，认为隔夜利率将超过 5%，并可能在 2023 年高达 5.25%。</blockquote>If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.<blockquote>如果联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要中正确传达了加息的信息，那么自 11 月中旬 10 月份 CPI 报告以来的股市上涨似乎很可能不仅会暂停，而且会逆转。</blockquote>VIX Positioning<blockquote>VIX定位</blockquote>Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed&#39;s Summary of Economic Projections and the committee&#39;s dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.<blockquote>此外，在 12 月 14 日 FOMC 会议之前，VIX 应该会大幅上涨。不是出于对加息 50 或 75 个基点的担忧，而是因为对美联储经济预测摘要以及委员会 2023 年底最终利率点阵图的担忧。</blockquote>In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market&#39;s perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&amp;P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.<blockquote>事实上，在整个 2022 年，根据市场对美联储会议纪要的看法，VIX 在 FOMC 会议上一直存在上涨或下跌的模式。目前，VIX 正在向其交易区间的下限移动，约为 23。上一次VIX在FOMC会议纪要发布前处于如此低位是在8月17日，这也标志着8月份涨势的结束，随后VIX大幅上涨，标普500大幅下跌。同样的事情也发生在4月初，这也标志着3月份反弹的结束，以及1月初，这标志着市场的顶峰。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb742a0f644a317b0c584c79d197735\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>TradingView<blockquote>交易视图</blockquote>Rates And The Dollar<blockquote>利率和美元</blockquote>The bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.<blockquote>债券市场已经在期待本周发布的美联储会议纪要中更加鹰派的评论。联邦基金再次将看涨期权的峰值利率定为 5% 以上，并回到 11 月 FOMC 会议后的水平。此外，峰值利率现在预计将出现在 7 月而不是 5 月，加息幅度较小。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a10f01649229138206ef78793ac66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Bloomberg<blockquote>彭博社</blockquote>The view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.<blockquote>利率上升的观点也帮助提振了2年期国债收益率，使其回到4.5%以上，并阻止了美元指数的流血。这些都是重要迹象，表明债券和货币市场正在听取联邦公开市场委员会成员的意见，并非常认真地对待加息的评级。美联储会议纪要应该强化美联储官员的观点，只会有助于推高美元和利率。</blockquote>Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.<blockquote>更高的利率和强势的美元应该有助于收紧金融状况，推低股价并增加隐含波动水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b54ba9843396edf02be5023d2da16\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>TradingView<blockquote>交易视图</blockquote>Fall Back Plan<blockquote>后退计划</blockquote>Just in case the market doesn&#39;t respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.<blockquote>以防市场对这些会议纪要没有做出适当的反应。美联储这次不会冒险参加联邦公开市场委员会会议，并将确保12月会议前可能出现的文章投稿不会造成混乱。10月份的鸽派转向不会重演。</blockquote>This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell&#39;s chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.<blockquote>这一次，杰伊·鲍威尔将于美国东部时间11月30日下午1:30在布鲁金斯学会发表一个小时的演讲。这次谈话更加关键，因为它将在 12 月 14 日 FOMC 会议正式进入 FOMC 停电期的前一天进行。这将是鲍威尔确保市场在这两周内不会偏离轨道的机会。</blockquote>The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.<blockquote>美联储全年都在告诉市场，它打算大幅加息，并希望金融状况收紧。是的，一路上出现了逆势反弹，但有一点是明确的，那就是美联储一直致力于提高利率。如果本周的会议记录没有传达这一信息，鲍威尔肯定会在 11 月 30 日做他 8 月 26 日在杰克逊霍尔所做的事情，再次将锤子放在股市上。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market<blockquote>美联储会议纪要可能对股市造成巨大打击</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Minutes May Deliver A Massive Blow To The Stock Market<blockquote>美联储会议纪要可能对股市造成巨大打击</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-11-21 11:45\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>The November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.</li><li>The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.</li><li>Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.</li></ul>It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market&#39;s celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.<blockquote><ul><li>11 月份美联储会议纪要将于周三下午发布。</li><li>债券和货币市场已经在为非常鹰派的时刻做准备。</li><li>美联储董事会成员似乎认为利率可能会升至 5%。</li></ul>这将是一个因假期而缩短的交易周，但不会缺少新闻事件。随着 11 月美联储会议纪要的发布，这一重大新闻事件将于周三下午 2 点举行。这些会议纪要可能会扭转 10 月份 CPI 报告低于预期后股市的庆祝情绪，因为美联储有不同的观点，并且已经在大力反击。</blockquote>Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn&#39;t going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.<blockquote>自11月10日发布CPI报告以来，美联储的言论非常明确——加息放缓并不意味着最终利率下降，好于预期的CPI报告也不会改变货币政策的路径。最终，这些演讲者似乎认为利率会更高。</blockquote>St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.<blockquote>圣路易斯联储理事詹姆斯·布拉德表示，对货币政策的鸽派假设证明了进一步加息是合理的。</blockquote>The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.<blockquote>11 月 FOMC 声明表明未来加息步伐可能会放缓，而 FOMC 新闻发布会则表明 9 月份最终利率可能高于此前预期。自 FOMC 会议以来，许多 FOMC 成员都提出了强有力的理由，认为隔夜利率将超过 5%，并可能在 2023 年高达 5.25%。</blockquote>If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.<blockquote>如果联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要中正确传达了加息的信息，那么自 11 月中旬 10 月份 CPI 报告以来的股市上涨似乎很可能不仅会暂停，而且会逆转。</blockquote>VIX Positioning<blockquote>VIX定位</blockquote>Additionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed&#39;s Summary of Economic Projections and the committee&#39;s dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.<blockquote>此外，在 12 月 14 日 FOMC 会议之前，VIX 应该会大幅上涨。不是出于对加息 50 或 75 个基点的担忧，而是因为对美联储经济预测摘要以及委员会 2023 年底最终利率点阵图的担忧。</blockquote>In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market&#39;s perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&amp;P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.<blockquote>事实上，在整个 2022 年，根据市场对美联储会议纪要的看法，VIX 在 FOMC 会议上一直存在上涨或下跌的模式。目前，VIX 正在向其交易区间的下限移动，约为 23。上一次VIX在FOMC会议纪要发布前处于如此低位是在8月17日，这也标志着8月份涨势的结束，随后VIX大幅上涨，标普500大幅下跌。同样的事情也发生在4月初，这也标志着3月份反弹的结束，以及1月初，这标志着市场的顶峰。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eb742a0f644a317b0c584c79d197735\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>TradingView<blockquote>交易视图</blockquote>Rates And The Dollar<blockquote>利率和美元</blockquote>The bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.<blockquote>债券市场已经在期待本周发布的美联储会议纪要中更加鹰派的评论。联邦基金再次将看涨期权的峰值利率定为 5% 以上，并回到 11 月 FOMC 会议后的水平。此外，峰值利率现在预计将出现在 7 月而不是 5 月，加息幅度较小。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085a10f01649229138206ef78793ac66\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>Bloomberg<blockquote>彭博社</blockquote>The view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.<blockquote>利率上升的观点也帮助提振了2年期国债收益率，使其回到4.5%以上，并阻止了美元指数的流血。这些都是重要迹象，表明债券和货币市场正在听取联邦公开市场委员会成员的意见，并非常认真地对待加息的评级。美联储会议纪要应该强化美联储官员的观点，只会有助于推高美元和利率。</blockquote>Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.<blockquote>更高的利率和强势的美元应该有助于收紧金融状况，推低股价并增加隐含波动水平。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88b54ba9843396edf02be5023d2da16\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><blockquote></blockquote>TradingView<blockquote>交易视图</blockquote>Fall Back Plan<blockquote>后退计划</blockquote>Just in case the market doesn&#39;t respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.<blockquote>以防市场对这些会议纪要没有做出适当的反应。美联储这次不会冒险参加联邦公开市场委员会会议，并将确保12月会议前可能出现的文章投稿不会造成混乱。10月份的鸽派转向不会重演。</blockquote>This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell&#39;s chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.<blockquote>这一次，杰伊·鲍威尔将于美国东部时间11月30日下午1:30在布鲁金斯学会发表一个小时的演讲。这次谈话更加关键，因为它将在 12 月 14 日 FOMC 会议正式进入 FOMC 停电期的前一天进行。这将是鲍威尔确保市场在这两周内不会偏离轨道的机会。</blockquote>The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.<blockquote>美联储全年都在告诉市场，它打算大幅加息，并希望金融状况收紧。是的，一路上出现了逆势反弹，但有一点是明确的，那就是美联储一直致力于提高利率。如果本周的会议记录没有传达这一信息，鲍威尔肯定会在 11 月 30 日做他 8 月 26 日在杰克逊霍尔所做的事情，再次将锤子放在股市上。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559258-fed-minutes-may-deliver-massive-blow-to-stock-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117170787","content_text":"SummaryThe November Fed Minutes will be released Wednesday afternoon.The bond and currency markets are already preparing for very hawkish minutes.Fed board members appear to think rates may head towards 5%.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will not be short on news events. The massive news event will come on Wednesday at 2 PM with the release of the November Fed minutes. These minutes will likely reverse the equity market's celebration following a lower-than-expected October CPI report, as the Fed has a different view and is already pushing back hard.Since the release of that CPI report on November 10, Fed-speak has been crystal clear - slower rate hikes do not mean a lower terminal rate, and one better-than-expected CPI report isn't going to change the path of monetary policy. Ultimately, these speakers seem to think rates are going even higher.St. Louis Fed Governor James Bullard suggested dovish assumptions about monetary policy justified additional rate hikes.The November FOMC statement indicated the likelihood of a slower pace of rate hikes coming, while the FOMC press conference indicated that the terminal rate was likely to be higher than previously expected in September. Since the FOMC meeting, a strong case has been laid out by many FOMC members for the overnight rate to head over 5% and potentially to go as high as 5.25% in 2023.If this message of higher rates is correctly delivered in the FOMC minutes, then it seems more likely than not that the equity market rally since the October CPI report in mid-November should not only pause but reverse.VIX PositioningAdditionally, the VIX should rise sharply heading into the FOMC meeting on December 14. Not on worries over a 50 or 75 bps rate hike but due to concerns over the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections and the committee's dot plot for terminal rate for the end of 2023.In fact, throughout 2022, there has been a pattern of the VIX rising or falling into the FOMC meeting following the market's perception of the Fed minutes. Currently, the VIX is trading towards the lower end of its trading range, around 23. The last time the VIX was this low heading into the release of the FOMC minutes came back on August 17, which also marked the end of the August rally and was followed by a sharp rise in the VIX and a very sharp decline in the S&P 500. The same thing also happened at the beginning of April, which also marked the end of the March rally, and early January, which marked the market peak.TradingViewRates And The DollarThe bond market is already anticipating the more hawkish commentary out of the Fed minutes to be released this week. The Fed funds rates again call for the peak rate to be above 5% and back to levels seen immediately following the November FOMC meeting. Additionally, that peak rate is now seen coming in July instead of May, incorporating smaller rate hikes.BloombergThe view of higher rates has also helped lift the 2-year yield, moving it back above 4.5%, and stopped the bleeding of the dollar index. These are critical signs that the bond and currency markets are listening to what the FOMC members are saying and taking the calls for higher rates very seriously. The Fed minutes should enforce the view of the Fed officials and should only help to push the dollar and rates even higher.Higher rates and a strong dollar should help financial conditions tighten, pushing stock prices lower and increasing implied volatility levels.TradingViewFall Back PlanJust in case the market doesn't respond appropriately to these minutes. The Fed is taking no chances heading into the FOMC meeting this time and will ensure that there will be no mix-ups from a potential article drop heading into the December meeting. There will be no repeat of the October version of the dovish pivot.This time Jay Powell will take things into his own hands and talk for an hour at the Brookings Institute on November 30, starting at 1:30 PM ET. The talk is even more critical because it will come one day before the official FOMC blackout period starts heading into the December 14 FOMC meeting. It will be Powell's chance to make sure the market does not veer off course over those two weeks.The Fed has been telling the market all year that it intended to raise rates aggressively and wanted financial conditions to tighten. Yes, there have been countertrend rallies along the way, but if one thing is clear, the Fed has been committed to higher rates. If the minutes do not deliver that message this week, Powell will be sure to do on November 30 what he did on August 26 at Jackson Hole, putting the hammer down on the equity market again.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/667598937"}