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2022-11-22

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Nvidia: It May Get Worse Before It Gets Better<blockquote>英伟达：在好转之前可能会变得更糟</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":667732417,"tweetId":"667732417","gmtCreate":1669126905939,"gmtModify":1669126907551,"author":{"id":3578811676095048,"idStr":"3578811676095048","authorId":3578811676095048,"authorIdStr":"3578811676095048","name":"S土豪熊貓G","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bf36dcb8e5b590c1e5f4df466413275","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1402,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tiger</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Tiger</p></body></html>","text":"Tiger","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667732417","repostId":1182336458,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182336458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669123871,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182336458?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-22 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: It May Get Worse Before It Gets Better<blockquote>英伟达：在好转之前可能会变得更糟</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182336458","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe PC market can be expected to remain weak in the short term.This will likely affect Nvidia","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The PC market can be expected to remain weak in the short term.</li><li>This will likely affect Nvidia’s Gaming business negatively.</li><li>Nvidia’s FQ4’23 outlook is not great.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d020e08bf3cf0cb864b05732bdbe77f1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>可以预计，短期内PC市场仍将保持弱势。</li><li>这可能会对英伟达的游戏业务产生负面影响。</li><li>Nvidia的23年第四季度前景并不好。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s (NASDAQ:NVDA) top line growth expectedly turned negative in the third fiscal quarter of FY 2023 due to a massive decline in the company’s Gaming business. Although Nvidia managed to beat top line expectations, the chip maker islikely to see more pressure on its top line in the coming quarters as demand for consumer electronics products can be expected to remain weak. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio and especially the momentum in the Data Center business, I believe the stock is going to re-test its lows!</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司游戏业务大幅下滑，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）的营收增长预计将在2023财年第三财季转为负值。尽管英伟达成功超出了营收预期，但由于消费电子产品的需求预计将保持疲软，这家芯片制造商在未来几个季度的营收可能会面临更大压力。虽然我喜欢英伟达的产品组合，尤其是数据中心业务的势头，但我相信该股将重新测试其低点！</blockquote></p><p><h2>Nvidia beats low FQ3’23 revenue estimates</h2>Nvidia issued a depressing revenue forecast for FQ3’23 (the quarter that ended on October 30, 2022) in August which called for revenues of $5.90B, plus or minus $118M. Last week, Nvidia reported revenues of $5.93B for FQ3’23 which was better than the low-end of the forecast and better than the average prediction of $5.81B. Nvidia missed on earnings, however.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia超出23年第三季度收入预期</h2>Nvidia在8月份发布了令人沮丧的23年第三季度（截至2022年10月30日的季度）收入预测，预计收入为$5.90 B，正负1.18亿美元。上周，Nvidia报告23年第3季度收入为$5.93 B，好于预测的下限，也好于$5.81 B的平均预测。然而，英伟达的盈利表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a0088c029410f975154573bfb21d27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha: Nvidia FQ3&#39;23 Results</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求Alpha：NVIDIA 23年第三季度业绩</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Gaming struggled, Data Centers Gained</h2>Nvidia generated total revenues of $5.93B in FQ3&#39;23, showing a decline of 17% year over year, largely because the Gaming business continued to struggle. After seeing a 44% quarter over quarter top line drop in the previous quarter, Nvidia’s Gaming segment reported another 23% sequential decline in revenues due to weakening consumer demand, high inventory levels in the industry and pressure on selling prices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>游戏陷入困境，数据中心受益</h2>Nvidia在23年第3季度的总收入为$5.93 B，同比下降17%，主要是因为游戏业务继续陷入困境。继上一季度营收环比下降44%后，由于消费者需求疲软、行业库存水平高以及销售价格压力，英伟达游戏部门的收入又环比下降23%。</blockquote></p><p>The Gaming segment generated $1.57B in revenues in FQ3’23, showing a decline of 51% year over year and the lowest total revenue amount in years. Part of the problem for Nvidia are high inventory levels in the PC industry, which negatively affects product pricing.</p><p><blockquote>游戏部门在23年第3季度创造了$1.57 B的收入，同比下降51%，总收入金额为多年来最低。英伟达面临的部分问题是PC行业的高库存水平，这对产品定价产生了负面影响。</blockquote></p><p>Gaming was the largest revenue contributing segment for Nvidia in the year-earlier period and it exceeded the Data Center business by a considerable margin. Nvidia generated $3.2B in Gaming revenues in FQ3’22 (the year-earlier quarter) due to strong GPU demand from gamers compared to $2.9B in Data Centers. In FQ3’23, Nvidia’s Data Center business generated $3.8B in revenues, more than 2.4 times as much as the Gaming business brought in.</p><p><blockquote>游戏是Nvidia去年同期最大的收入贡献领域，并且大幅超过了数据中心业务。由于游戏玩家对GPU的强劲需求，Nvidia在22年第3季度（去年同期）的游戏收入为3.2 B美元，而数据中心的收入为2.9 B美元。23年第三季度，Nvidia的数据中心业务创造了$3.8 B的收入，是游戏业务收入的2.4倍多。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f80ec6c0c2d29a5ef8bb9ff945a0bacd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Nvidia: Revenue Trend</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达：收入趋势</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The Data Center business kept performing very well for Nvidia and it remains a bright spot for the chip maker going forward. Data Center revenues soared 31% year over year to $3.83B due to strong adoption of Nvidia’s server solutions by corporate clients. Nvidia also secured a big win in November by entering into a multi-year agreement with software company Microsoft (MSFT) to build a new supercomputer. Microsoft’s Azure will be the “first public cloud to incorporate NVIDIA’s advanced AI stack” which would further enhance Nvidia’s position as a leader of full stack artificial intelligence applications.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的数据中心业务一直表现良好，并且仍然是这家芯片制造商未来的亮点。由于企业客户大力采用Nvidia的服务器解决方案，数据中心收入同比飙升31%至$3.83 B。Nvidia还在11月与软件公司微软(MSFT)签订了一项多年协议，建造一台新的超级计算机，从而取得了重大胜利。微软的Azure将成为“第一个纳入英伟达先进人工智能堆栈的公共云”，这将进一步增强英伟达作为全栈人工智能应用领导者的地位。</blockquote></p><p><h2>The PC market decline is in a cyclical decline and it is a problem for Nvidia</h2>The GPU demand surge in FY 2021 resulted in record prices for graphic cards which helped Nvidia report record financial results as well. However, the PC market has seen a significant slowdown this year and it is driving a normalization in Nvidia’s Gaming business. Consumers upgraded their PC equipment during the pandemic to prepare for remote working and studying, but now demand for new PC shipments is dropping off sharply.</p><p><blockquote><h2>PC市场下滑是周期性下滑，这是英伟达的问题</h2>2021财年GPU需求激增导致显卡价格创纪录，这也帮助Nvidia报告了创纪录的财务业绩。然而，PC市场今年明显放缓，这正在推动英伟达游戏业务的正常化。消费者在疫情期间升级了他们的PC设备，为远程工作和学习做准备，但现在对新PC出货量的需求正在急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p>Consulting firm Gartner recently estimated that global shipments of PCs declined 19.5% in the third-quarter which marked an acceleration of the market’s decline: in the second-quarter, Gartner calculated a decline in global PC shipments of 12.6%. Intel also heavily down-graded its forecast for the last quarter of the year due to the forcefulness of the down-turn, indicating that the market has not yet bottomed… and this means that Nvidia’s top line will continue to be at risk in the next two or three quarters.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Gartner最近估计，第三季度全球个人电脑出货量下降了19.5%，这标志着市场下滑的加速：第二季度，Gartner计算出全球个人电脑出货量下降了12.6%。由于下滑势头强劲，英特尔还大幅下调了对今年最后一个季度的预测，表明市场尚未触底……而这意味着英伟达的营收将在未来两到三个季度继续面临风险。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Nvidia’s outlook for FQ4’23</h2>The outlook for the current fiscal quarter is not great either. The chip maker said it sees revenues of $6.0B, plus or minus 2% while its non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 66%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Based off of Nvidia&#39;s guidance, the chip maker could actually see a quarter over quarter increase of up to 3%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia对23年第4季度的展望</h2>当前财季的前景也不乐观。该芯片制造商表示，预计收入为$6.0 B，正负2%，而非GAAP毛利率预计为66%，正负50个基点。根据Nvidia的指导，这家芯片制造商实际上可能会出现高达3%的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Nvidia’s valuation</h2>Nvidia’s revenue estimates for this year and next year have started to drop sharply after the chip maker issued a profit warning last quarter. The expectation is now for 0% revenue growth this year and only 12% in the following year.</p><p><blockquote><h2>英伟达的估值</h2>在芯片制造商英伟达上季度发布盈利预警后，该公司今年和明年的收入预期开始大幅下降。目前预计今年收入增长0%，明年仅增长12%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92afef56d4a5d231562911c35f3785f9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I prefer AMD (AMD) over Nvidia right now due to AMD’s strong execution in the server market, strong product line-up with its new EPYC processors hitting the market soon and a more compelling valuation relative to Nvidia. AMD&#39;s valuation is much more attractive than Nvidia&#39;s based off of P/S and P/E...</p><p><blockquote>目前，我更喜欢AMD(AMD)而不是Nvidia，因为AMD在服务器市场的强大执行力、强大的产品阵容（其新的EPYC处理器即将上市）以及相对于Nvidia更具吸引力的估值。基于市盈率和市盈率，AMD的估值比英伟达更具吸引力……</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb7f075ba7a2fcb661488f1be7a04de4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Risks with Nvidia</h2>The most obvious commercial risk for Nvidia is a continual slowdown in the Gaming business which has already been responsible for driving a painful revaluation of Nvidia’s shares to the down-side this year. Should the PC market continue to decelerate, then chip makers will continue to be faced with weakening demand in their consumer-facing businesses. A down-trend in estimates also poses a risk for companies like Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia的风险</h2>英伟达最明显的商业风险是游戏业务的持续放缓，这已经导致英伟达股价今年痛苦地重估下跌。如果个人电脑市场继续减速，那么芯片制造商将继续面临面向消费者的业务需求疲软的问题。预估的下降趋势也给英伟达等公司带来了风险。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Final thoughts</h2>Nvidia’s FQ3’23 results were expectedly not great and the outlook for FQ4’23 could have been worse. But that doesn’t mean that Nvidia is a buy. I believe the PC market will likely remain weak for the foreseeable future as the downturn accelerated in the third-quarter and high inventory levels continue to pose a risk to product pricing. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio, momentum in Data Centers and recently announced collaboration with Microsoft, I believe shares of Nvidia are going to re-test their lows around $108 in the coming months. Weakening sector fundamentals and a light outlook for FQ4’23 strongly indicate that things could get worse for Nvidia before they get better!</p><p><blockquote><h2>最后的想法</h2>Nvidia 23年第3季度的业绩预计不会很好，23年第4季度的前景可能会更糟。但这并不意味着英伟达值得买入。我认为，在可预见的未来，个人电脑市场可能会保持疲软，因为第三季度经济下滑加速，高库存水平继续对产品定价构成风险。虽然我喜欢Nvidia的产品组合、数据中心的势头以及最近宣布的与微软的合作，但我相信Nvidia的股价将在未来几个月重新测试108美元左右的低点。行业基本面的疲软和23年第四季度的光明前景强烈表明，Nvidia的情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: It May Get Worse Before It Gets Better<blockquote>英伟达：在好转之前可能会变得更糟</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: It May Get Worse Before It Gets Better<blockquote>英伟达：在好转之前可能会变得更糟</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-22 21:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The PC market can be expected to remain weak in the short term.</li><li>This will likely affect Nvidia’s Gaming business negatively.</li><li>Nvidia’s FQ4’23 outlook is not great.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d020e08bf3cf0cb864b05732bdbe77f1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>可以预计，短期内PC市场仍将保持弱势。</li><li>这可能会对英伟达的游戏业务产生负面影响。</li><li>Nvidia的23年第四季度前景并不好。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文</span></p></body></html></blockquote></p><p>Nvidia&#39;s (NASDAQ:NVDA) top line growth expectedly turned negative in the third fiscal quarter of FY 2023 due to a massive decline in the company’s Gaming business. Although Nvidia managed to beat top line expectations, the chip maker islikely to see more pressure on its top line in the coming quarters as demand for consumer electronics products can be expected to remain weak. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio and especially the momentum in the Data Center business, I believe the stock is going to re-test its lows!</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司游戏业务大幅下滑，英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）的营收增长预计将在2023财年第三财季转为负值。尽管英伟达成功超出了营收预期，但由于消费电子产品的需求预计将保持疲软，这家芯片制造商在未来几个季度的营收可能会面临更大压力。虽然我喜欢英伟达的产品组合，尤其是数据中心业务的势头，但我相信该股将重新测试其低点！</blockquote></p><p><h2>Nvidia beats low FQ3’23 revenue estimates</h2>Nvidia issued a depressing revenue forecast for FQ3’23 (the quarter that ended on October 30, 2022) in August which called for revenues of $5.90B, plus or minus $118M. Last week, Nvidia reported revenues of $5.93B for FQ3’23 which was better than the low-end of the forecast and better than the average prediction of $5.81B. Nvidia missed on earnings, however.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia超出23年第三季度收入预期</h2>Nvidia在8月份发布了令人沮丧的23年第三季度（截至2022年10月30日的季度）收入预测，预计收入为$5.90 B，正负1.18亿美元。上周，Nvidia报告23年第3季度收入为$5.93 B，好于预测的下限，也好于$5.81 B的平均预测。然而，英伟达的盈利表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a0088c029410f975154573bfb21d27\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"231\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha: Nvidia FQ3&#39;23 Results</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求Alpha：NVIDIA 23年第三季度业绩</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Gaming struggled, Data Centers Gained</h2>Nvidia generated total revenues of $5.93B in FQ3&#39;23, showing a decline of 17% year over year, largely because the Gaming business continued to struggle. After seeing a 44% quarter over quarter top line drop in the previous quarter, Nvidia’s Gaming segment reported another 23% sequential decline in revenues due to weakening consumer demand, high inventory levels in the industry and pressure on selling prices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>游戏陷入困境，数据中心受益</h2>Nvidia在23年第3季度的总收入为$5.93 B，同比下降17%，主要是因为游戏业务继续陷入困境。继上一季度营收环比下降44%后，由于消费者需求疲软、行业库存水平高以及销售价格压力，英伟达游戏部门的收入又环比下降23%。</blockquote></p><p>The Gaming segment generated $1.57B in revenues in FQ3’23, showing a decline of 51% year over year and the lowest total revenue amount in years. Part of the problem for Nvidia are high inventory levels in the PC industry, which negatively affects product pricing.</p><p><blockquote>游戏部门在23年第3季度创造了$1.57 B的收入，同比下降51%，总收入金额为多年来最低。英伟达面临的部分问题是PC行业的高库存水平，这对产品定价产生了负面影响。</blockquote></p><p>Gaming was the largest revenue contributing segment for Nvidia in the year-earlier period and it exceeded the Data Center business by a considerable margin. Nvidia generated $3.2B in Gaming revenues in FQ3’22 (the year-earlier quarter) due to strong GPU demand from gamers compared to $2.9B in Data Centers. In FQ3’23, Nvidia’s Data Center business generated $3.8B in revenues, more than 2.4 times as much as the Gaming business brought in.</p><p><blockquote>游戏是Nvidia去年同期最大的收入贡献领域，并且大幅超过了数据中心业务。由于游戏玩家对GPU的强劲需求，Nvidia在22年第3季度（去年同期）的游戏收入为3.2 B美元，而数据中心的收入为2.9 B美元。23年第三季度，Nvidia的数据中心业务创造了$3.8 B的收入，是游戏业务收入的2.4倍多。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f80ec6c0c2d29a5ef8bb9ff945a0bacd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Nvidia: Revenue Trend</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达：收入趋势</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The Data Center business kept performing very well for Nvidia and it remains a bright spot for the chip maker going forward. Data Center revenues soared 31% year over year to $3.83B due to strong adoption of Nvidia’s server solutions by corporate clients. Nvidia also secured a big win in November by entering into a multi-year agreement with software company Microsoft (MSFT) to build a new supercomputer. Microsoft’s Azure will be the “first public cloud to incorporate NVIDIA’s advanced AI stack” which would further enhance Nvidia’s position as a leader of full stack artificial intelligence applications.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达的数据中心业务一直表现良好，并且仍然是这家芯片制造商未来的亮点。由于企业客户大力采用Nvidia的服务器解决方案，数据中心收入同比飙升31%至$3.83 B。Nvidia还在11月与软件公司微软(MSFT)签订了一项多年协议，建造一台新的超级计算机，从而取得了重大胜利。微软的Azure将成为“第一个纳入英伟达先进人工智能堆栈的公共云”，这将进一步增强英伟达作为全栈人工智能应用领导者的地位。</blockquote></p><p><h2>The PC market decline is in a cyclical decline and it is a problem for Nvidia</h2>The GPU demand surge in FY 2021 resulted in record prices for graphic cards which helped Nvidia report record financial results as well. However, the PC market has seen a significant slowdown this year and it is driving a normalization in Nvidia’s Gaming business. Consumers upgraded their PC equipment during the pandemic to prepare for remote working and studying, but now demand for new PC shipments is dropping off sharply.</p><p><blockquote><h2>PC市场下滑是周期性下滑，这是英伟达的问题</h2>2021财年GPU需求激增导致显卡价格创纪录，这也帮助Nvidia报告了创纪录的财务业绩。然而，PC市场今年明显放缓，这正在推动英伟达游戏业务的正常化。消费者在疫情期间升级了他们的PC设备，为远程工作和学习做准备，但现在对新PC出货量的需求正在急剧下降。</blockquote></p><p>Consulting firm Gartner recently estimated that global shipments of PCs declined 19.5% in the third-quarter which marked an acceleration of the market’s decline: in the second-quarter, Gartner calculated a decline in global PC shipments of 12.6%. Intel also heavily down-graded its forecast for the last quarter of the year due to the forcefulness of the down-turn, indicating that the market has not yet bottomed… and this means that Nvidia’s top line will continue to be at risk in the next two or three quarters.</p><p><blockquote>咨询公司Gartner最近估计，第三季度全球个人电脑出货量下降了19.5%，这标志着市场下滑的加速：第二季度，Gartner计算出全球个人电脑出货量下降了12.6%。由于下滑势头强劲，英特尔还大幅下调了对今年最后一个季度的预测，表明市场尚未触底……而这意味着英伟达的营收将在未来两到三个季度继续面临风险。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Nvidia’s outlook for FQ4’23</h2>The outlook for the current fiscal quarter is not great either. The chip maker said it sees revenues of $6.0B, plus or minus 2% while its non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 66%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Based off of Nvidia&#39;s guidance, the chip maker could actually see a quarter over quarter increase of up to 3%.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia对23年第4季度的展望</h2>当前财季的前景也不乐观。该芯片制造商表示，预计收入为$6.0 B，正负2%，而非GAAP毛利率预计为66%，正负50个基点。根据Nvidia的指导，这家芯片制造商实际上可能会出现高达3%的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Nvidia’s valuation</h2>Nvidia’s revenue estimates for this year and next year have started to drop sharply after the chip maker issued a profit warning last quarter. The expectation is now for 0% revenue growth this year and only 12% in the following year.</p><p><blockquote><h2>英伟达的估值</h2>在芯片制造商英伟达上季度发布盈利预警后，该公司今年和明年的收入预期开始大幅下降。目前预计今年收入增长0%，明年仅增长12%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92afef56d4a5d231562911c35f3785f9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I prefer AMD (AMD) over Nvidia right now due to AMD’s strong execution in the server market, strong product line-up with its new EPYC processors hitting the market soon and a more compelling valuation relative to Nvidia. AMD&#39;s valuation is much more attractive than Nvidia&#39;s based off of P/S and P/E...</p><p><blockquote>目前，我更喜欢AMD(AMD)而不是Nvidia，因为AMD在服务器市场的强大执行力、强大的产品阵容（其新的EPYC处理器即将上市）以及相对于Nvidia更具吸引力的估值。基于市盈率和市盈率，AMD的估值比英伟达更具吸引力……</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb7f075ba7a2fcb661488f1be7a04de4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p><h2>Risks with Nvidia</h2>The most obvious commercial risk for Nvidia is a continual slowdown in the Gaming business which has already been responsible for driving a painful revaluation of Nvidia’s shares to the down-side this year. Should the PC market continue to decelerate, then chip makers will continue to be faced with weakening demand in their consumer-facing businesses. A down-trend in estimates also poses a risk for companies like Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote><h2>Nvidia的风险</h2>英伟达最明显的商业风险是游戏业务的持续放缓，这已经导致英伟达股价今年痛苦地重估下跌。如果个人电脑市场继续减速，那么芯片制造商将继续面临面向消费者的业务需求疲软的问题。预估的下降趋势也给英伟达等公司带来了风险。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Final thoughts</h2>Nvidia’s FQ3’23 results were expectedly not great and the outlook for FQ4’23 could have been worse. But that doesn’t mean that Nvidia is a buy. I believe the PC market will likely remain weak for the foreseeable future as the downturn accelerated in the third-quarter and high inventory levels continue to pose a risk to product pricing. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio, momentum in Data Centers and recently announced collaboration with Microsoft, I believe shares of Nvidia are going to re-test their lows around $108 in the coming months. Weakening sector fundamentals and a light outlook for FQ4’23 strongly indicate that things could get worse for Nvidia before they get better!</p><p><blockquote><h2>最后的想法</h2>Nvidia 23年第3季度的业绩预计不会很好，23年第4季度的前景可能会更糟。但这并不意味着英伟达值得买入。我认为，在可预见的未来，个人电脑市场可能会保持疲软，因为第三季度经济下滑加速，高库存水平继续对产品定价构成风险。虽然我喜欢Nvidia的产品组合、数据中心的势头以及最近宣布的与微软的合作，但我相信Nvidia的股价将在未来几个月重新测试108美元左右的低点。行业基本面的疲软和23年第四季度的光明前景强烈表明，Nvidia的情况在好转之前可能会变得更糟！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559700-nvidia-may-get-worse-before-it-gets-better\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559700-nvidia-may-get-worse-before-it-gets-better","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182336458","content_text":"SummaryThe PC market can be expected to remain weak in the short term.This will likely affect Nvidia’s Gaming business negatively.Nvidia’s FQ4’23 outlook is not great.Justin SullivanNvidia's (NASDAQ:NVDA) top line growth expectedly turned negative in the third fiscal quarter of FY 2023 due to a massive decline in the company’s Gaming business. Although Nvidia managed to beat top line expectations, the chip maker islikely to see more pressure on its top line in the coming quarters as demand for consumer electronics products can be expected to remain weak. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio and especially the momentum in the Data Center business, I believe the stock is going to re-test its lows!Nvidia beats low FQ3’23 revenue estimatesNvidia issued a depressing revenue forecast for FQ3’23 (the quarter that ended on October 30, 2022) in August which called for revenues of $5.90B, plus or minus $118M. Last week, Nvidia reported revenues of $5.93B for FQ3’23 which was better than the low-end of the forecast and better than the average prediction of $5.81B. Nvidia missed on earnings, however.Seeking Alpha: Nvidia FQ3'23 ResultsGaming struggled, Data Centers GainedNvidia generated total revenues of $5.93B in FQ3'23, showing a decline of 17% year over year, largely because the Gaming business continued to struggle. After seeing a 44% quarter over quarter top line drop in the previous quarter, Nvidia’s Gaming segment reported another 23% sequential decline in revenues due to weakening consumer demand, high inventory levels in the industry and pressure on selling prices.The Gaming segment generated $1.57B in revenues in FQ3’23, showing a decline of 51% year over year and the lowest total revenue amount in years. Part of the problem for Nvidia are high inventory levels in the PC industry, which negatively affects product pricing.Gaming was the largest revenue contributing segment for Nvidia in the year-earlier period and it exceeded the Data Center business by a considerable margin. Nvidia generated $3.2B in Gaming revenues in FQ3’22 (the year-earlier quarter) due to strong GPU demand from gamers compared to $2.9B in Data Centers. In FQ3’23, Nvidia’s Data Center business generated $3.8B in revenues, more than 2.4 times as much as the Gaming business brought in.Nvidia: Revenue TrendThe Data Center business kept performing very well for Nvidia and it remains a bright spot for the chip maker going forward. Data Center revenues soared 31% year over year to $3.83B due to strong adoption of Nvidia’s server solutions by corporate clients. Nvidia also secured a big win in November by entering into a multi-year agreement with software company Microsoft (MSFT) to build a new supercomputer. Microsoft’s Azure will be the “first public cloud to incorporate NVIDIA’s advanced AI stack” which would further enhance Nvidia’s position as a leader of full stack artificial intelligence applications.The PC market decline is in a cyclical decline and it is a problem for NvidiaThe GPU demand surge in FY 2021 resulted in record prices for graphic cards which helped Nvidia report record financial results as well. However, the PC market has seen a significant slowdown this year and it is driving a normalization in Nvidia’s Gaming business. Consumers upgraded their PC equipment during the pandemic to prepare for remote working and studying, but now demand for new PC shipments is dropping off sharply.Consulting firm Gartner recently estimated that global shipments of PCs declined 19.5% in the third-quarter which marked an acceleration of the market’s decline: in the second-quarter, Gartner calculated a decline in global PC shipments of 12.6%. Intel also heavily down-graded its forecast for the last quarter of the year due to the forcefulness of the down-turn, indicating that the market has not yet bottomed… and this means that Nvidia’s top line will continue to be at risk in the next two or three quarters.Nvidia’s outlook for FQ4’23The outlook for the current fiscal quarter is not great either. The chip maker said it sees revenues of $6.0B, plus or minus 2% while its non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 66%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Based off of Nvidia's guidance, the chip maker could actually see a quarter over quarter increase of up to 3%.Nvidia’s valuationNvidia’s revenue estimates for this year and next year have started to drop sharply after the chip maker issued a profit warning last quarter. The expectation is now for 0% revenue growth this year and only 12% in the following year.Data by YChartsI prefer AMD (AMD) over Nvidia right now due to AMD’s strong execution in the server market, strong product line-up with its new EPYC processors hitting the market soon and a more compelling valuation relative to Nvidia. AMD's valuation is much more attractive than Nvidia's based off of P/S and P/E...Data by YChartsRisks with NvidiaThe most obvious commercial risk for Nvidia is a continual slowdown in the Gaming business which has already been responsible for driving a painful revaluation of Nvidia’s shares to the down-side this year. Should the PC market continue to decelerate, then chip makers will continue to be faced with weakening demand in their consumer-facing businesses. A down-trend in estimates also poses a risk for companies like Nvidia.Final thoughtsNvidia’s FQ3’23 results were expectedly not great and the outlook for FQ4’23 could have been worse. But that doesn’t mean that Nvidia is a buy. I believe the PC market will likely remain weak for the foreseeable future as the downturn accelerated in the third-quarter and high inventory levels continue to pose a risk to product pricing. While I like Nvidia’s product portfolio, momentum in Data Centers and recently announced collaboration with Microsoft, I believe shares of Nvidia are going to re-test their lows around $108 in the coming months. Weakening sector fundamentals and a light outlook for FQ4’23 strongly indicate that things could get worse for Nvidia before they get better!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3418,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/667732417"}