Huat Huat Al
2022-09-05
Huat huat All
SPY: Making Money In A Bear Market (Technical Analysis)<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：在熊市中赚钱（技术分析）</blockquote>
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Professional traders hate risk and love ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>This is a technical analysis article on the SPY ETF. Professional traders hate risk and love "sure things." Why? Because trading is risky enough. They prefer to make money the easy way.</li><li>They are always on the search for contrarian trades that are a "slam dunk." Why? Because they don't want to be fired for being wrong.</li><li>They love being right all the time and getting big, fat bonuses at year end.</li><li>So what is a slam dunk in this bear market? Knowing that the Fed is in a bind and has to take the economy down which creates the bear market we trade.</li><li>What is the slam dunk rule? Buy puts or some other short strategy after every bounce, until the bottom bounce, which is still a very long way off.</li></ul>The easiest way to make money in a bear market (NYSEARCA:SPY) is to short every bounce as long as there is no bottom in place. There is no bottom in place yet for this market. TheSPY is targeting a retest of $364 and there is no indication that $364 is the bottom. The SPY could still go lower, based on the bind the Fed is in, because the Fed is targeting a 2.2% inflation rate. That is a long way off, and so is the bottoming process in the SPY determined by that Fed target.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这是一篇关于SPDR标普500指数ETF ETF的技术分析文章。专业交易员讨厌风险，喜欢“确定的事情”。为什么？因为交易风险足够大。他们更喜欢用简单的方法赚钱。</li><li>他们总是在寻找“扣篮”的逆向交易。为什么？因为他们不想因为做错了而被解雇。</li><li>他们喜欢一直做对，并在年底获得丰厚的奖金。</li><li>那么在这个熊市中，什么是灌篮呢？知道美联储陷入困境，不得不拉低经济，这就造成了我们交易的熊市。</li><li>灌篮规则是什么？每次反弹后买入看跌期权或其他一些空头策略，直到底部反弹，距离底部反弹还有很长的路要走。</li></ul>在熊市（NYSEARCA:SPY）中赚钱最简单的方法是做空每一次反弹，只要没有底部。这个市场还没有底部。TheSPY 的目标是重新测试 364 美元，没有迹象表明 364 美元是底部。根据美联储的约束，SPDR标普500指数ETF仍有可能走低，因为美联储的通胀率目标是2.2%。这还有很长的路要走，由美联储目标决定的SPDR标普500指数ETF的触底过程也是如此。</blockquote></p><p><b>Isn't Trading Very Risky?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易风险不是很大吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Trading is risky enough, so the only way to reduce risk is to find slam dunk trades. To do that with any stock or the market, traders look for "research" that gives them the lowest risk, successful trade. That "insightful information" is hard to come by usually. However, in the case of this bear market, everyone has that insight, because the Fed is giving it free to everyone. Fed Chairman Powell just warned of the "pain" that is coming to bring inflation down.</p><p><blockquote>交易的风险已经够大了，所以降低风险的唯一方法就是找到扣篮交易。为了对任何股票或市场做到这一点，交易者会寻找能给他们带来最低风险、成功交易的“研究”。这种“有见地的信息”通常很难获得。然而，在这次熊市的情况下，每个人都有这种洞察力，因为美联储正在免费给每个人。美联储主席鲍威尔刚刚警告称，降低通胀将带来“痛苦”。</blockquote></p><p>Because the economy was running hot, with very high employment and very high inflation, the Fed has told us what they are going to do. Even if the Fed did not tell us, it was easy to see what they would have to do. With that knowledge we know this bear market will continue until it bottoms. With that obvious conclusion, we can find a way to make money in this bear market.</p><p><blockquote>因为经济过热，就业非常高，通货膨胀非常高，美联储已经告诉我们他们要做什么。即使美联储没有告诉我们，也很容易看出他们将不得不做什么。有了这些知识，我们知道这场熊市将持续到触底。有了这个显而易见的结论，我们就能在这个熊市中找到赚钱的方法了。</blockquote></p><p>What's An Example Of A Successful Trade?</p><p><blockquote>成功交易的例子是什么？</blockquote></p><p>Friday was a good example of a bear market bounce where you could make money shorting. We actually provided a minute by minute description of the bounce on Friday morning, using our live charting system with comments. We watched the day traders short it on the opening gap. Then we watched it going up to be stopped by resistance.</p><p><blockquote>周五是熊市反弹的一个很好的例子，你可以通过做空赚钱。我们实际上在周五早上提供了对反弹的逐分钟描述，使用我们的实时图表系统并附有评论。我们看到日内交易者在开盘缺口做空。然后我们看着它上升被阻力阻止。</blockquote></p><p>For those subscribers that missed the live comments, we published an article as the bounce reached its top. We bought puts and we are still holding them. We are sitting on a nice profit because the bounce failed and then dropped back to the $392 support level. We have discussed this level frequently.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些错过了现场评论的订阅者，我们在反弹达到顶峰时发表了一篇文章。我们买了看跌期权，现在还持有。我们获得了不错的利润，因为反弹失败了，然后回落到 392 美元的支撑位。我们经常讨论这个层面。</blockquote></p><p><b>Where Is The Bottom Of This Bear Market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这轮熊市的底部在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p>We don't expect the support at $392 to hold and we don't expect another bounce from this level. Our short term target for the SPY is $388. As discussed here in previous articles, our longer term target is a retest of $364 and it could go lower to find a new bottom. Thus you can see why we are buying November, out of the money, puts to make easy money, as this bear market continues for the foreseeable future. The end of the recent big bounce up failed at $428 resistance, and we don't expect another big bounce until we retest $364 or from a lower bottom.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计 392 美元的支撑位不会保持，也预计不会从该水平再次反弹。我们对SPDR标普500指数ETF的短期目标是 388 美元。正如之前的文章所讨论的，我们的长期目标是重新测试 364 美元，并且可能会走低以找到新的底部。因此，您可以明白为什么我们在 11 月买入看跌期权来轻松赚钱，因为熊市将在可预见的未来继续下去。最近的大反弹结束时在 428 美元阻力位失败，我们预计在重新测试 364 美元或从更低的底部开始之前不会出现另一次大反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>How Do The Pros Make Money In A Bear Market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专业人士如何在熊市中赚钱？</b></blockquote></p><p>The professionals know all of this and are coining money on these slam dunk bounces. They are buying the S&P VIX Index (VIX) or the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) which go up when the market goes down. They are selling calls on their stock portfolios or buying puts like us. (Our Model Portfolio is in cash so we cannot sell calls) The professionals know how to make money in a bear market and so do we.</p><p><blockquote>专业人士知道所有这些，并在这些扣篮反弹上赚钱。他们正在购买标准普尔 VIX 指数 (VIX) 或 ProShares 超短标普500 (SDS)，这些指数在市场下跌时上涨。他们像我们一样出售股票投资组合中的评级或购买看跌期权。（我们的模型投资组合是现金的，所以我们不能出售评级）专业人士知道如何在熊市中赚钱，我们也知道。</blockquote></p><p>Everyone knows the rule: buy the dips and sell the tops. It works both in a bull market and in a bear market, as happened on Friday. Only the day-traders caught a little bit of the bounce, because they don't last long in a bear market. However, the dives, from the top of the bounce last much longer in a bear market and this is where the easy money is made by shorting or buying puts or buying the SDS.</p><p><blockquote>大家都知道规则：逢低买入，逢高卖出。它在牛市和熊市都有效，就像周五发生的那样。只有日内交易者抓住了一点点反弹，因为它们在熊市中不会持续太久。然而，在熊市中，从反弹顶部开始的暴跌会持续更长时间，这就是通过做空、购买看跌期权或购买 SDS 轻松赚钱的地方。</blockquote></p><p><b>When Was The Sell Signal On Friday's Bounce?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周五反弹时的卖出信号是什么时候？</b></blockquote></p><p>Here is the 5-minute chart showing the rise and fall of this bounce on Friday and how we called it minute by minute on our live charts for our subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个5分钟的图表，显示了周五这种反弹的上升和下降，以及我们如何在我们的订户的实时图表上一分钟一分钟地称之为它。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c79d5b3e782f9684a0f803719b0f4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Buying Puts At The Top Of The Bounce (StockCharts.com)</p><p><blockquote>在反弹顶部买入看跌期权 (StockCharts.com)</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Here are the minute by minute comments we gave our subscribers as we commented on the live charts. We signed off to publish the sell signal in an article to our subscribers and then to buy our puts.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我们在评论实时图表时给订户的每分钟评论。我们同意在一篇文章中向我们的订阅者发布卖出信号，然后购买我们的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p><i>9:55 am the day traders shorted the top but failed to fill the gap by covering early. I am still looking before the gap to be filled</i></p><p><blockquote><i>上午 9:55 日内交易者做空顶部，但未能通过提前回补来填补缺口。我仍在寻找填补空白之前</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:27 surprising retest of 400 and I think another chance to short at 400 -401 price resistance especially on Friday in a bear market and holiday weekend when everyone goes home early especially daytraders</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:27 令人惊讶的重新测试 400，我认为还有机会在 400 -401 价格阻力位做空，尤其是在周五熊市和假日周末，每个人都提前回家，尤其是日内交易者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:34 at 400.72 looking for sell signal, overbought, At price resistance, daytraders usually short</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:34 在 400.72 寻找卖出信号，超买，在价格阻力处，日内交易者通常做空</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:41 at 401.12 RSI overbought waiting for the breakdown sell signal by day traders.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:41 RSI 在 401.12 超买，等待日内交易者的突破卖出信号。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:46 at 401 toppy candlesticks inviting daytraders to short but they are waiting for RSI to turn down.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:46 401 toppy 烛台邀请日内交易者做空，但他们正在等待 RSI 向下。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:50 red candlestick, waiting for RSI breakdown for red vertical line</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:50 红色烛台，等待红色垂直线的 RSI 突破</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:53 here come the sellers at 400, red vertical line now.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:53 卖家来了，400，现在是红色垂直线。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>11:08 signing off, bye bye with this red vertical sell signal in place</i></p><p><blockquote><i>11:08 签约，再见这个红色垂直卖出信号到位</i></blockquote></p><p>As you can see on the above chart, the first RSI sell signal, at the top of the chart where we put the vertical red line, was a head fake. After filling the gap by taking price down, the day-traders then took it back up to the final wall of resistance at $401. The second vertical, red line, sell signal proved to be correct. That is where we ended our comments and wrote an article to our subscribers. Then we bought our puts as the RSI continued down, unlike the head fake, first red, vertical line. Our put position has a nice gain and is still open.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上图中看到的，第一个 RSI 卖出信号，位于我们放置垂直红线的图表顶部，是一个头部假货。在通过压低价格填补缺口后，日内交易者随后将其回升至 401 美元的最后阻力位。第二个垂直红线卖出信号被证明是正确的。这就是我们结束评论并给我们的订户写一篇文章的地方。然后，当 RSI 继续下跌时，我们买入了看跌期权，不像头部假货，第一个红色，垂直线。我们的看跌头寸有不错的收益，并且仍然开放。</blockquote></p><p><b>What's Ahead In The Coming Weeks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几周会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p>So much for day-trading. Most of us are interested in what the weekly chart is telling us longer term about this market. It is not a pretty picture. As you can see, all the signals have turned down on the chart. This indicates to us, weeks of selling ahead that will take the SPY down to retest $364.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易到此为止。我们大多数人都对周线图告诉我们这个市场的长期情况感兴趣。这不是一张漂亮的照片。正如你所看到的，图表上所有的信号都向下了。这向我们表明，未来几周的抛售将使SPDR标普500指数ETF跌至 364 美元重新测试。</blockquote></p><p>September is usually a terrible month according to the<i>Stock Traders Almanac</i>, which provides all the historical data on the market. To help things along, we have the Fed "pain" announcement coming on September 18th. We think the market bottoms in October and then we start the best six months for the stock market. In May we may finally see the bottom of this bear market.</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>股票交易员年鉴</i>，它提供了市场上的所有历史数据。为了帮助事情顺利进行，我们将于 9 月 18 日发布美联储“痛苦”声明。我们认为市场在十月份触底，然后我们开始股市最好的六个月。5月份，我们可能最终会看到这轮熊市的底部。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the weekly chart:</p><p><blockquote>以下是周线图：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8c6b84f3e7b149c95d54de0b1f6f8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>SPY Targeting $364 (StockCharts.com)</p><p><blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF目标为 364 美元 (StockCharts.com)</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>The weekly chart has lagging, but more reliable signals than the daily chart. In other words, these signals do not reverse as quickly as the daily chart. We expect the negative trend of all these sell signals to continue for the coming weeks, still targeting $364. We will be shorting any bounce such as happened on Friday and you can tune in with our free trial.</p><p><blockquote>周线图有滞后，但信号比日线图更可靠。换句话说，这些信号不会像日线图那样迅速反转。我们预计所有这些卖出信号的负面趋势将在未来几周持续，目标仍为 364 美元。我们将做空周五发生的任何反弹，您可以收听我们的免费试用。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Making Money In A Bear Market (Technical Analysis)<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：在熊市中赚钱（技术分析）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Making Money In A Bear Market (Technical Analysis)<blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF：在熊市中赚钱（技术分析）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-05 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>This is a technical analysis article on the SPY ETF. Professional traders hate risk and love "sure things." Why? Because trading is risky enough. They prefer to make money the easy way.</li><li>They are always on the search for contrarian trades that are a "slam dunk." Why? Because they don't want to be fired for being wrong.</li><li>They love being right all the time and getting big, fat bonuses at year end.</li><li>So what is a slam dunk in this bear market? Knowing that the Fed is in a bind and has to take the economy down which creates the bear market we trade.</li><li>What is the slam dunk rule? Buy puts or some other short strategy after every bounce, until the bottom bounce, which is still a very long way off.</li></ul>The easiest way to make money in a bear market (NYSEARCA:SPY) is to short every bounce as long as there is no bottom in place. There is no bottom in place yet for this market. TheSPY is targeting a retest of $364 and there is no indication that $364 is the bottom. The SPY could still go lower, based on the bind the Fed is in, because the Fed is targeting a 2.2% inflation rate. That is a long way off, and so is the bottoming process in the SPY determined by that Fed target.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这是一篇关于SPDR标普500指数ETF ETF的技术分析文章。专业交易员讨厌风险，喜欢“确定的事情”。为什么？因为交易风险足够大。他们更喜欢用简单的方法赚钱。</li><li>他们总是在寻找“扣篮”的逆向交易。为什么？因为他们不想因为做错了而被解雇。</li><li>他们喜欢一直做对，并在年底获得丰厚的奖金。</li><li>那么在这个熊市中，什么是灌篮呢？知道美联储陷入困境，不得不拉低经济，这就造成了我们交易的熊市。</li><li>灌篮规则是什么？每次反弹后买入看跌期权或其他一些空头策略，直到底部反弹，距离底部反弹还有很长的路要走。</li></ul>在熊市（NYSEARCA:SPY）中赚钱最简单的方法是做空每一次反弹，只要没有底部。这个市场还没有底部。TheSPY 的目标是重新测试 364 美元，没有迹象表明 364 美元是底部。根据美联储的约束，SPDR标普500指数ETF仍有可能走低，因为美联储的通胀率目标是2.2%。这还有很长的路要走，由美联储目标决定的SPDR标普500指数ETF的触底过程也是如此。</blockquote></p><p><b>Isn't Trading Very Risky?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易风险不是很大吗？</b></blockquote></p><p>Trading is risky enough, so the only way to reduce risk is to find slam dunk trades. To do that with any stock or the market, traders look for "research" that gives them the lowest risk, successful trade. That "insightful information" is hard to come by usually. However, in the case of this bear market, everyone has that insight, because the Fed is giving it free to everyone. Fed Chairman Powell just warned of the "pain" that is coming to bring inflation down.</p><p><blockquote>交易的风险已经够大了，所以降低风险的唯一方法就是找到扣篮交易。为了对任何股票或市场做到这一点，交易者会寻找能给他们带来最低风险、成功交易的“研究”。这种“有见地的信息”通常很难获得。然而，在这次熊市的情况下，每个人都有这种洞察力，因为美联储正在免费给每个人。美联储主席鲍威尔刚刚警告称，降低通胀将带来“痛苦”。</blockquote></p><p>Because the economy was running hot, with very high employment and very high inflation, the Fed has told us what they are going to do. Even if the Fed did not tell us, it was easy to see what they would have to do. With that knowledge we know this bear market will continue until it bottoms. With that obvious conclusion, we can find a way to make money in this bear market.</p><p><blockquote>因为经济过热，就业非常高，通货膨胀非常高，美联储已经告诉我们他们要做什么。即使美联储没有告诉我们，也很容易看出他们将不得不做什么。有了这些知识，我们知道这场熊市将持续到触底。有了这个显而易见的结论，我们就能在这个熊市中找到赚钱的方法了。</blockquote></p><p>What's An Example Of A Successful Trade?</p><p><blockquote>成功交易的例子是什么？</blockquote></p><p>Friday was a good example of a bear market bounce where you could make money shorting. We actually provided a minute by minute description of the bounce on Friday morning, using our live charting system with comments. We watched the day traders short it on the opening gap. Then we watched it going up to be stopped by resistance.</p><p><blockquote>周五是熊市反弹的一个很好的例子，你可以通过做空赚钱。我们实际上在周五早上提供了对反弹的逐分钟描述，使用我们的实时图表系统并附有评论。我们看到日内交易者在开盘缺口做空。然后我们看着它上升被阻力阻止。</blockquote></p><p>For those subscribers that missed the live comments, we published an article as the bounce reached its top. We bought puts and we are still holding them. We are sitting on a nice profit because the bounce failed and then dropped back to the $392 support level. We have discussed this level frequently.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些错过了现场评论的订阅者，我们在反弹达到顶峰时发表了一篇文章。我们买了看跌期权，现在还持有。我们获得了不错的利润，因为反弹失败了，然后回落到 392 美元的支撑位。我们经常讨论这个层面。</blockquote></p><p><b>Where Is The Bottom Of This Bear Market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这轮熊市的底部在哪里？</b></blockquote></p><p>We don't expect the support at $392 to hold and we don't expect another bounce from this level. Our short term target for the SPY is $388. As discussed here in previous articles, our longer term target is a retest of $364 and it could go lower to find a new bottom. Thus you can see why we are buying November, out of the money, puts to make easy money, as this bear market continues for the foreseeable future. The end of the recent big bounce up failed at $428 resistance, and we don't expect another big bounce until we retest $364 or from a lower bottom.</p><p><blockquote>我们预计 392 美元的支撑位不会保持，也预计不会从该水平再次反弹。我们对SPDR标普500指数ETF的短期目标是 388 美元。正如之前的文章所讨论的，我们的长期目标是重新测试 364 美元，并且可能会走低以找到新的底部。因此，您可以明白为什么我们在 11 月买入看跌期权来轻松赚钱，因为熊市将在可预见的未来继续下去。最近的大反弹结束时在 428 美元阻力位失败，我们预计在重新测试 364 美元或从更低的底部开始之前不会出现另一次大反弹。</blockquote></p><p><b>How Do The Pros Make Money In A Bear Market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>专业人士如何在熊市中赚钱？</b></blockquote></p><p>The professionals know all of this and are coining money on these slam dunk bounces. They are buying the S&P VIX Index (VIX) or the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) which go up when the market goes down. They are selling calls on their stock portfolios or buying puts like us. (Our Model Portfolio is in cash so we cannot sell calls) The professionals know how to make money in a bear market and so do we.</p><p><blockquote>专业人士知道所有这些，并在这些扣篮反弹上赚钱。他们正在购买标准普尔 VIX 指数 (VIX) 或 ProShares 超短标普500 (SDS)，这些指数在市场下跌时上涨。他们像我们一样出售股票投资组合中的评级或购买看跌期权。（我们的模型投资组合是现金的，所以我们不能出售评级）专业人士知道如何在熊市中赚钱，我们也知道。</blockquote></p><p>Everyone knows the rule: buy the dips and sell the tops. It works both in a bull market and in a bear market, as happened on Friday. Only the day-traders caught a little bit of the bounce, because they don't last long in a bear market. However, the dives, from the top of the bounce last much longer in a bear market and this is where the easy money is made by shorting or buying puts or buying the SDS.</p><p><blockquote>大家都知道规则：逢低买入，逢高卖出。它在牛市和熊市都有效，就像周五发生的那样。只有日内交易者抓住了一点点反弹，因为它们在熊市中不会持续太久。然而，在熊市中，从反弹顶部开始的暴跌会持续更长时间，这就是通过做空、购买看跌期权或购买 SDS 轻松赚钱的地方。</blockquote></p><p><b>When Was The Sell Signal On Friday's Bounce?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>周五反弹时的卖出信号是什么时候？</b></blockquote></p><p>Here is the 5-minute chart showing the rise and fall of this bounce on Friday and how we called it minute by minute on our live charts for our subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个5分钟的图表，显示了周五这种反弹的上升和下降，以及我们如何在我们的订户的实时图表上一分钟一分钟地称之为它。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15c79d5b3e782f9684a0f803719b0f4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Buying Puts At The Top Of The Bounce (StockCharts.com)</p><p><blockquote>在反弹顶部买入看跌期权 (StockCharts.com)</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Here are the minute by minute comments we gave our subscribers as we commented on the live charts. We signed off to publish the sell signal in an article to our subscribers and then to buy our puts.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我们在评论实时图表时给订户的每分钟评论。我们同意在一篇文章中向我们的订阅者发布卖出信号，然后购买我们的看跌期权。</blockquote></p><p><i>9:55 am the day traders shorted the top but failed to fill the gap by covering early. I am still looking before the gap to be filled</i></p><p><blockquote><i>上午 9:55 日内交易者做空顶部，但未能通过提前回补来填补缺口。我仍在寻找填补空白之前</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:27 surprising retest of 400 and I think another chance to short at 400 -401 price resistance especially on Friday in a bear market and holiday weekend when everyone goes home early especially daytraders</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:27 令人惊讶的重新测试 400，我认为还有机会在 400 -401 价格阻力位做空，尤其是在周五熊市和假日周末，每个人都提前回家，尤其是日内交易者</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:34 at 400.72 looking for sell signal, overbought, At price resistance, daytraders usually short</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:34 在 400.72 寻找卖出信号，超买，在价格阻力处，日内交易者通常做空</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:41 at 401.12 RSI overbought waiting for the breakdown sell signal by day traders.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:41 RSI 在 401.12 超买，等待日内交易者的突破卖出信号。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:46 at 401 toppy candlesticks inviting daytraders to short but they are waiting for RSI to turn down.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:46 401 toppy 烛台邀请日内交易者做空，但他们正在等待 RSI 向下。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:50 red candlestick, waiting for RSI breakdown for red vertical line</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:50 红色烛台，等待红色垂直线的 RSI 突破</i></blockquote></p><p><i>10:53 here come the sellers at 400, red vertical line now.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>10:53 卖家来了，400，现在是红色垂直线。</i></blockquote></p><p><i>11:08 signing off, bye bye with this red vertical sell signal in place</i></p><p><blockquote><i>11:08 签约，再见这个红色垂直卖出信号到位</i></blockquote></p><p>As you can see on the above chart, the first RSI sell signal, at the top of the chart where we put the vertical red line, was a head fake. After filling the gap by taking price down, the day-traders then took it back up to the final wall of resistance at $401. The second vertical, red line, sell signal proved to be correct. That is where we ended our comments and wrote an article to our subscribers. Then we bought our puts as the RSI continued down, unlike the head fake, first red, vertical line. Our put position has a nice gain and is still open.</p><p><blockquote>正如您在上图中看到的，第一个 RSI 卖出信号，位于我们放置垂直红线的图表顶部，是一个头部假货。在通过压低价格填补缺口后，日内交易者随后将其回升至 401 美元的最后阻力位。第二个垂直红线卖出信号被证明是正确的。这就是我们结束评论并给我们的订户写一篇文章的地方。然后，当 RSI 继续下跌时，我们买入了看跌期权，不像头部假货，第一个红色，垂直线。我们的看跌头寸有不错的收益，并且仍然开放。</blockquote></p><p><b>What's Ahead In The Coming Weeks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几周会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p>So much for day-trading. Most of us are interested in what the weekly chart is telling us longer term about this market. It is not a pretty picture. As you can see, all the signals have turned down on the chart. This indicates to us, weeks of selling ahead that will take the SPY down to retest $364.</p><p><blockquote>日内交易到此为止。我们大多数人都对周线图告诉我们这个市场的长期情况感兴趣。这不是一张漂亮的照片。正如你所看到的，图表上所有的信号都向下了。这向我们表明，未来几周的抛售将使SPDR标普500指数ETF跌至 364 美元重新测试。</blockquote></p><p>September is usually a terrible month according to the<i>Stock Traders Almanac</i>, which provides all the historical data on the market. To help things along, we have the Fed "pain" announcement coming on September 18th. We think the market bottoms in October and then we start the best six months for the stock market. In May we may finally see the bottom of this bear market.</p><p><blockquote>根据<i>股票交易员年鉴</i>，它提供了市场上的所有历史数据。为了帮助事情顺利进行，我们将于 9 月 18 日发布美联储“痛苦”声明。我们认为市场在十月份触底，然后我们开始股市最好的六个月。5月份，我们可能最终会看到这轮熊市的底部。</blockquote></p><p>Here is the weekly chart:</p><p><blockquote>以下是周线图：</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8c6b84f3e7b149c95d54de0b1f6f8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>SPY Targeting $364 (StockCharts.com)</p><p><blockquote>SPDR标普500指数ETF目标为 364 美元 (StockCharts.com)</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>The weekly chart has lagging, but more reliable signals than the daily chart. In other words, these signals do not reverse as quickly as the daily chart. We expect the negative trend of all these sell signals to continue for the coming weeks, still targeting $364. We will be shorting any bounce such as happened on Friday and you can tune in with our free trial.</p><p><blockquote>周线图有滞后，但信号比日线图更可靠。换句话说，这些信号不会像日线图那样迅速反转。我们预计所有这些卖出信号的负面趋势将在未来几周持续，目标仍为 364 美元。我们将做空周五发生的任何反弹，您可以收听我们的免费试用。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538914-spy-making-money-bear-market-technical-analysis\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4538914-spy-making-money-bear-market-technical-analysis","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140356635","content_text":"SummaryThis is a technical analysis article on the SPY ETF. Professional traders hate risk and love \"sure things.\" Why? Because trading is risky enough. They prefer to make money the easy way.They are always on the search for contrarian trades that are a \"slam dunk.\" Why? Because they don't want to be fired for being wrong.They love being right all the time and getting big, fat bonuses at year end.So what is a slam dunk in this bear market? Knowing that the Fed is in a bind and has to take the economy down which creates the bear market we trade.What is the slam dunk rule? Buy puts or some other short strategy after every bounce, until the bottom bounce, which is still a very long way off.The easiest way to make money in a bear market (NYSEARCA:SPY) is to short every bounce as long as there is no bottom in place. There is no bottom in place yet for this market. TheSPY is targeting a retest of $364 and there is no indication that $364 is the bottom. The SPY could still go lower, based on the bind the Fed is in, because the Fed is targeting a 2.2% inflation rate. That is a long way off, and so is the bottoming process in the SPY determined by that Fed target.Isn't Trading Very Risky?Trading is risky enough, so the only way to reduce risk is to find slam dunk trades. To do that with any stock or the market, traders look for \"research\" that gives them the lowest risk, successful trade. That \"insightful information\" is hard to come by usually. However, in the case of this bear market, everyone has that insight, because the Fed is giving it free to everyone. Fed Chairman Powell just warned of the \"pain\" that is coming to bring inflation down.Because the economy was running hot, with very high employment and very high inflation, the Fed has told us what they are going to do. Even if the Fed did not tell us, it was easy to see what they would have to do. With that knowledge we know this bear market will continue until it bottoms. With that obvious conclusion, we can find a way to make money in this bear market.What's An Example Of A Successful Trade?Friday was a good example of a bear market bounce where you could make money shorting. We actually provided a minute by minute description of the bounce on Friday morning, using our live charting system with comments. We watched the day traders short it on the opening gap. Then we watched it going up to be stopped by resistance.For those subscribers that missed the live comments, we published an article as the bounce reached its top. We bought puts and we are still holding them. We are sitting on a nice profit because the bounce failed and then dropped back to the $392 support level. We have discussed this level frequently.Where Is The Bottom Of This Bear Market?We don't expect the support at $392 to hold and we don't expect another bounce from this level. Our short term target for the SPY is $388. As discussed here in previous articles, our longer term target is a retest of $364 and it could go lower to find a new bottom. Thus you can see why we are buying November, out of the money, puts to make easy money, as this bear market continues for the foreseeable future. The end of the recent big bounce up failed at $428 resistance, and we don't expect another big bounce until we retest $364 or from a lower bottom.How Do The Pros Make Money In A Bear Market?The professionals know all of this and are coining money on these slam dunk bounces. They are buying the S&P VIX Index (VIX) or the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) which go up when the market goes down. They are selling calls on their stock portfolios or buying puts like us. (Our Model Portfolio is in cash so we cannot sell calls) The professionals know how to make money in a bear market and so do we.Everyone knows the rule: buy the dips and sell the tops. It works both in a bull market and in a bear market, as happened on Friday. Only the day-traders caught a little bit of the bounce, because they don't last long in a bear market. However, the dives, from the top of the bounce last much longer in a bear market and this is where the easy money is made by shorting or buying puts or buying the SDS.When Was The Sell Signal On Friday's Bounce?Here is the 5-minute chart showing the rise and fall of this bounce on Friday and how we called it minute by minute on our live charts for our subscribers.Buying Puts At The Top Of The Bounce (StockCharts.com)Here are the minute by minute comments we gave our subscribers as we commented on the live charts. We signed off to publish the sell signal in an article to our subscribers and then to buy our puts.9:55 am the day traders shorted the top but failed to fill the gap by covering early. I am still looking before the gap to be filled10:27 surprising retest of 400 and I think another chance to short at 400 -401 price resistance especially on Friday in a bear market and holiday weekend when everyone goes home early especially daytraders10:34 at 400.72 looking for sell signal, overbought, At price resistance, daytraders usually short10:41 at 401.12 RSI overbought waiting for the breakdown sell signal by day traders.10:46 at 401 toppy candlesticks inviting daytraders to short but they are waiting for RSI to turn down.10:50 red candlestick, waiting for RSI breakdown for red vertical line10:53 here come the sellers at 400, red vertical line now.11:08 signing off, bye bye with this red vertical sell signal in placeAs you can see on the above chart, the first RSI sell signal, at the top of the chart where we put the vertical red line, was a head fake. After filling the gap by taking price down, the day-traders then took it back up to the final wall of resistance at $401. The second vertical, red line, sell signal proved to be correct. That is where we ended our comments and wrote an article to our subscribers. Then we bought our puts as the RSI continued down, unlike the head fake, first red, vertical line. Our put position has a nice gain and is still open.What's Ahead In The Coming Weeks?So much for day-trading. Most of us are interested in what the weekly chart is telling us longer term about this market. It is not a pretty picture. As you can see, all the signals have turned down on the chart. This indicates to us, weeks of selling ahead that will take the SPY down to retest $364.September is usually a terrible month according to theStock Traders Almanac, which provides all the historical data on the market. To help things along, we have the Fed \"pain\" announcement coming on September 18th. We think the market bottoms in October and then we start the best six months for the stock market. In May we may finally see the bottom of this bear market.Here is the weekly chart:SPY Targeting $364 (StockCharts.com)ConclusionThe weekly chart has lagging, but more reliable signals than the daily chart. In other words, these signals do not reverse as quickly as the daily chart. We expect the negative trend of all these sell signals to continue for the coming weeks, still targeting $364. We will be shorting any bounce such as happened on Friday and you can tune in with our free trial.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2196,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":11,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/669620926"}
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