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2022-06-29
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NIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead<blockquote>蔚来：未来的道路不稳定但利润丰厚</blockquote>
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(NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several ne","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>蔚来(NYSE：蔚来)在5月12日遭遇多个负面催化剂，导致股价跌至11.67美元，之后有很多值得喜欢的地方。从那以后，在我写这篇文章的时候，它已经翻了一番，对于那些接近低点的人来说，它是一个了不起的表演者。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.</p><p><blockquote>价格的快速上涨确实让我相信，随着投资者获利了结，最终会出现抛售，如果在抛售临近时出现暂时的坏消息，股价可能会进一步下跌；最有可能的是上海再次停工。</blockquote></p><p>But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，蔚来价格的下行压力也只是暂时的，因为围绕该公司的叙述在过去一个月左右一直在持续改善。</blockquote></p><p>I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>我相信蔚来最糟糕的时期已经过去，因为负面催化剂已经影响到其股价。因此，它未来应该会享受稳定持续的增长，尽管这可能会是一段坎坷的旅程。如果没有影响全球经济和电动汽车行业的宏观经济或重大地缘政治事件，耐心的投资者应该会在未来几年甚至更长时间内获得一些稳健的回报。</blockquote></p><p><h2>How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO faces</h2>I always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they're these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.</p><p><blockquote><h2>如何看待蔚来面临的暂时宏观挑战</h2>当我看到像蔚来这样似乎已经超卖的公司时，我总是问自己两个问题，它们是：行业的基本面是否发生了任何变化，或者公司的基本面是否发生了任何变化？蔚来对这两个问题的答案都是否定的。</blockquote></p><p>The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车行业正处于长期增长轨道，蔚来已通过提高产能和推出新车型来利用电动汽车趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在芯片短缺、中国政府关门、对中国企业普遍存在暂时的负面情绪、全球经济疲软、美国退市担忧以及大宗商品和芯片面临的一些通胀压力，但蔚来仍在设法摆脱由于对其汽车的需求继续保持高位，短期交付挑战。</blockquote></p><p>Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>关于它可以控制的事情，它正在提高价格和增加产量，以缓解大宗商品和芯片价格的上涨。它还在新加坡交易所主板上市，以缓解人们对可能在美国退市的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has "829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers."</p><p><blockquote>它还继续扩大其充换电网络。截至第一季度末，其在197个城市安装了超过960个电池交换站。它拥有“829个超级充电站和1,140个目的地充电器”。</blockquote></p><p>As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.</p><p><blockquote>至于芯片短缺，管理层在最新财报中表示，6月芯片短缺与此前芯片供应紧张关系较小，更多与产能提振有关；因此，该公司相信芯片供应是可以管理的。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Positive catalysts for NIO</h2>Among the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.</p><p><blockquote><h2>蔚来的积极催化剂</h2>该公司的积极催化剂包括超卖带来的有吸引力的估值、交付量的增加、车型组合的扩大、产量的提高以及电池交换站的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Initial response to the company's latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.</p><p><blockquote>对该公司最新收益报告的最初反应是抛售，因为投资者对大宗商品和芯片价格上涨导致利润率收缩做出了反应。但一旦市场吸收了整体报告并且更多数据出现，投资者就开始关注交付量和未来产量的预期增长。</blockquote></p><p>For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>例如，5月份蔚来的交付量增至7,024辆，全年交付量达到37,866辆，同比增长近12%。收入跃升至15.6亿美元，较2021年第一季度增长24%。</blockquote></p><p>The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.</p><p><blockquote>这里的要点是，投资者开始更多地关注收入和交付量，正如我之前提到的，过去的负面催化剂已经融入了蔚来的股价中。</blockquote></p><p>Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.</p><p><blockquote>其他积极的催化剂包括最近推出的备受期待的ES7。跨界车计划于8月28日交付。中国工业和信息化部（MIIT）在一次研讨会上表示，由于新冠肺炎限制的影响，它正在研究提振制造业的方法。相信中国电动汽车行业将成为新政策的受益者。</blockquote></p><p>Last, China's State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.</p><p><blockquote>最后，中国国务院预计将保留现有的税收减免政策，以刺激电动汽车销售需求。委员会成员认为，减税将为该行业带来298亿美元的消费者支出。</blockquote></p><p>All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是蔚来持续增长势头的顺风车。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Probable taking of profits from NIO stock</h2>If we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we'll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we're looking at in a sell-off, we'll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.</p><p><blockquote><h2>蔚来股票可能获利了结</h2>如果我们看到任何令蔚来股东感到恐慌的负面催化剂，我相信我们会看到股票相当快的抛售，以保护利润。为了了解我们在抛售中看到的数字类型，我们将看看过去几个月蔚来股价调整的情况。</blockquote></p><p>On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.</p><p><blockquote>5月4日，该股的交易价格略高于每股18.00美元，到5月12日，该股跌至52周低点11.67美元。5月20日，该股的交易价格约为17.50美元，到5月25日跌至每股14.00美元。最近，6月8日，该股交易价格接近20.45美元，6月13日跌至略低于每股16.00美元。自6月13日跌至每股16.00美元左右以来，该价格在6月23日飙升至每股23.00美元以上。自5月12日以来，蔚来的股价上涨了约一倍。</blockquote></p><p>My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don't see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.</p><p><blockquote>我在这里的想法是，任何导致市场产生恐惧的事情都会导致蔚来股票的快速抛售。如果出现负面催化剂加上获利了结，股价将受到重大打击，但我认为这种情况不会持续太久。我相信蔚来已经度过了难关，任何负面消息只会对公司产生暂时的影响。如上所述，所有负面因素都已反映在蔚来股价中，唯一可能扰乱其势头的是上海为应对新冠疫情而再次长期关闭。但同样，这并没有改变电动汽车市场的基本面，也没有改变蔚来作为一家公司的基本面。</blockquote></p><p>I'm bringing this up because shareholders shouldn't be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.</p><p><blockquote>我提出这个问题是因为股东不应该以任何方式太担心这一点。我的观点是，蔚来在短期或长期都没有危险，负面催化剂唯一能做的就是延长公司恢复非凡增长的时间。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Conclusion</h2>Since I see NIO's share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote><h2>结论</h2>由于我认为蔚来的股价因宏观经济和地缘政治事件和担忧而受到不成比例的惩罚，因此随着它重新与其强劲的基本面保持一致，它很可能在短期内跑赢同行。</blockquote></p><p>Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司在推出新车型时明智地扩大产能，为消费者再次开始消费时的强劲增长做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.</p><p><blockquote>随着供应链的改善以及该公司提高其车型的价格以应对大宗商品和芯片价格的上涨，该公司正在困难的情况下提高其利润率和利润。也就是说，在公司清理库存并完成这些订单之前，过去的一些预购订单将受到打击。</blockquote></p><p>My thesis is it's not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，这不是是否的问题，而是蔚来何时开始恢复强劲的增长势头，因为强劲的消费者需求和更大的产能增加了交付量。</blockquote></p><p>As we've seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it's going to go a lot higher in the long haul.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在5月12日触及52周低点后看到的那样，它已经较该水平翻了一番。一旦市场情绪进一步改善，从长远来看，市场情绪将会走高。</blockquote></p><p>The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO's share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，关键是忽略电动汽车行业和蔚来股价的波动，而是关注该公司为未来长期发展定位的方式。</blockquote></p><p>There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely rewarded.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，耐心的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead<blockquote>蔚来：未来的道路不稳定但利润丰厚</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: A Volatile But Very Profitable Road Ahead<blockquote>蔚来：未来的道路不稳定但利润丰厚</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-28 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>蔚来(NYSE：蔚来)在5月12日遭遇多个负面催化剂，导致股价跌至11.67美元，之后有很多值得喜欢的地方。从那以后，在我写这篇文章的时候，它已经翻了一番，对于那些接近低点的人来说，它是一个了不起的表演者。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.</p><p><blockquote>价格的快速上涨确实让我相信，随着投资者获利了结，最终会出现抛售，如果在抛售临近时出现暂时的坏消息，股价可能会进一步下跌；最有可能的是上海再次停工。</blockquote></p><p>But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.</p><p><blockquote>但即使在最坏的情况下，蔚来价格的下行压力也只是暂时的，因为围绕该公司的叙述在过去一个月左右一直在持续改善。</blockquote></p><p>I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>我相信蔚来最糟糕的时期已经过去，因为负面催化剂已经影响到其股价。因此，它未来应该会享受稳定持续的增长，尽管这可能会是一段坎坷的旅程。如果没有影响全球经济和电动汽车行业的宏观经济或重大地缘政治事件，耐心的投资者应该会在未来几年甚至更长时间内获得一些稳健的回报。</blockquote></p><p><h2>How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO faces</h2>I always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they're these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.</p><p><blockquote><h2>如何看待蔚来面临的暂时宏观挑战</h2>当我看到像蔚来这样似乎已经超卖的公司时，我总是问自己两个问题，它们是：行业的基本面是否发生了任何变化，或者公司的基本面是否发生了任何变化？蔚来对这两个问题的答案都是否定的。</blockquote></p><p>The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车行业正处于长期增长轨道，蔚来已通过提高产能和推出新车型来利用电动汽车趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在芯片短缺、中国政府关门、对中国企业普遍存在暂时的负面情绪、全球经济疲软、美国退市担忧以及大宗商品和芯片面临的一些通胀压力，但蔚来仍在设法摆脱由于对其汽车的需求继续保持高位，短期交付挑战。</blockquote></p><p>Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>关于它可以控制的事情，它正在提高价格和增加产量，以缓解大宗商品和芯片价格的上涨。它还在新加坡交易所主板上市，以缓解人们对可能在美国退市的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has "829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers."</p><p><blockquote>它还继续扩大其充换电网络。截至第一季度末，其在197个城市安装了超过960个电池交换站。它拥有“829个超级充电站和1,140个目的地充电器”。</blockquote></p><p>As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.</p><p><blockquote>至于芯片短缺，管理层在最新财报中表示，6月芯片短缺与此前芯片供应紧张关系较小，更多与产能提振有关；因此，该公司相信芯片供应是可以管理的。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Positive catalysts for NIO</h2>Among the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.</p><p><blockquote><h2>蔚来的积极催化剂</h2>该公司的积极催化剂包括超卖带来的有吸引力的估值、交付量的增加、车型组合的扩大、产量的提高以及电池交换站的增长。</blockquote></p><p>Initial response to the company's latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.</p><p><blockquote>对该公司最新收益报告的最初反应是抛售，因为投资者对大宗商品和芯片价格上涨导致利润率收缩做出了反应。但一旦市场吸收了整体报告并且更多数据出现，投资者就开始关注交付量和未来产量的预期增长。</blockquote></p><p>For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>例如，5月份蔚来的交付量增至7,024辆，全年交付量达到37,866辆，同比增长近12%。收入跃升至15.6亿美元，较2021年第一季度增长24%。</blockquote></p><p>The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.</p><p><blockquote>这里的要点是，投资者开始更多地关注收入和交付量，正如我之前提到的，过去的负面催化剂已经融入了蔚来的股价中。</blockquote></p><p>Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.</p><p><blockquote>其他积极的催化剂包括最近推出的备受期待的ES7。跨界车计划于8月28日交付。中国工业和信息化部（MIIT）在一次研讨会上表示，由于新冠肺炎限制的影响，它正在研究提振制造业的方法。相信中国电动汽车行业将成为新政策的受益者。</blockquote></p><p>Last, China's State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.</p><p><blockquote>最后，中国国务院预计将保留现有的税收减免政策，以刺激电动汽车销售需求。委员会成员认为，减税将为该行业带来298亿美元的消费者支出。</blockquote></p><p>All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都是蔚来持续增长势头的顺风车。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Probable taking of profits from NIO stock</h2>If we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we'll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we're looking at in a sell-off, we'll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.</p><p><blockquote><h2>蔚来股票可能获利了结</h2>如果我们看到任何令蔚来股东感到恐慌的负面催化剂，我相信我们会看到股票相当快的抛售，以保护利润。为了了解我们在抛售中看到的数字类型，我们将看看过去几个月蔚来股价调整的情况。</blockquote></p><p>On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.</p><p><blockquote>5月4日，该股的交易价格略高于每股18.00美元，到5月12日，该股跌至52周低点11.67美元。5月20日，该股的交易价格约为17.50美元，到5月25日跌至每股14.00美元。最近，6月8日，该股交易价格接近20.45美元，6月13日跌至略低于每股16.00美元。自6月13日跌至每股16.00美元左右以来，该价格在6月23日飙升至每股23.00美元以上。自5月12日以来，蔚来的股价上涨了约一倍。</blockquote></p><p>My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don't see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.</p><p><blockquote>我在这里的想法是，任何导致市场产生恐惧的事情都会导致蔚来股票的快速抛售。如果出现负面催化剂加上获利了结，股价将受到重大打击，但我认为这种情况不会持续太久。我相信蔚来已经度过了难关，任何负面消息只会对公司产生暂时的影响。如上所述，所有负面因素都已反映在蔚来股价中，唯一可能扰乱其势头的是上海为应对新冠疫情而再次长期关闭。但同样，这并没有改变电动汽车市场的基本面，也没有改变蔚来作为一家公司的基本面。</blockquote></p><p>I'm bringing this up because shareholders shouldn't be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.</p><p><blockquote>我提出这个问题是因为股东不应该以任何方式太担心这一点。我的观点是，蔚来在短期或长期都没有危险，负面催化剂唯一能做的就是延长公司恢复非凡增长的时间。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Conclusion</h2>Since I see NIO's share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote><h2>结论</h2>由于我认为蔚来的股价因宏观经济和地缘政治事件和担忧而受到不成比例的惩罚，因此随着它重新与其强劲的基本面保持一致，它很可能在短期内跑赢同行。</blockquote></p><p>Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.</p><p><blockquote>此外，该公司在推出新车型时明智地扩大产能，为消费者再次开始消费时的强劲增长做好准备。</blockquote></p><p>With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.</p><p><blockquote>随着供应链的改善以及该公司提高其车型的价格以应对大宗商品和芯片价格的上涨，该公司正在困难的情况下提高其利润率和利润。也就是说，在公司清理库存并完成这些订单之前，过去的一些预购订单将受到打击。</blockquote></p><p>My thesis is it's not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.</p><p><blockquote>我的论点是，这不是是否的问题，而是蔚来何时开始恢复强劲的增长势头，因为强劲的消费者需求和更大的产能增加了交付量。</blockquote></p><p>As we've seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it's going to go a lot higher in the long haul.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在5月12日触及52周低点后看到的那样，它已经较该水平翻了一番。一旦市场情绪进一步改善，从长远来看，市场情绪将会走高。</blockquote></p><p>The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO's share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.</p><p><blockquote>对我来说，关键是忽略电动汽车行业和蔚来股价的波动，而是关注该公司为未来长期发展定位的方式。</blockquote></p><p>There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely rewarded.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，耐心的投资者将获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead\">Seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520117-nio-volatile-profitable-road-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2246206338","content_text":"There's a lot to like concerning NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) after it got hammered in the face of several negative catalysts that drove the price down to as low as $11.67 on May 12. Since then, it has doubled as I write, making it a terrific performer for those that got in near the low.The quick jump in price does make me believe there will be an eventual sell-off as investors take some profits off the table, which could further drop if temporary bad news hits the stock near the time of a sell-off; the most likely being another shutdown in Shanghai.But even in that worst-case scenario, the downward pressure on the price of NIO would only be temporary because the narrative surrounding the company has been consistently improving over the last month or so.I believe the worst is behind NIO because the negative catalysts have already been baked into its share price. For that reason, it should enjoy steady and consistent growth going forward, although it will likely be a bumpy ride. Patient investors should generate some solid returns over the next couple of years and further out if there are no macro-economic or significant geopolitical events that impact the global economy and the EV sector.How to view the temporary macro challenges NIO facesI always ask myself two questions when looking at a company that appears to have been oversold like NIO, and they're these: has anything changed in the fundamentals of the sector, or has anything changed in the fundamentals of the company? The answer to both of these questions for NIO is no.The EV sector is on a long-term growth trajectory, and NIO has positioned itself, through the increase of its production capacity and the introduction of new models, to take advantage of the EV trend.Even with chips shortages, government shutdowns in China, temporary negative sentiment concerning China-based companies in general, the weakening global economy, delisting concerns in the U.S., and some inflationary pressure on commodities and chips, NIO is still managing to work its way out of short-term delivery challenges as demand for its vehicles continue to remain high.Concerning things it has control over, it is raising prices and boosting production in order to mitigate increasing prices for commodities and chips. It has also listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Exchange to assuage concerns over possibly being delisted in the U.S.It also continues to enlarge its charging and swapping network. At the end of the first quarter, it had over 960 battery swapping stations installed in 197 cities. It has \"829 supercharging stations and 1,140 destination chargers.\"As for chip shortages, management stated in its latest earnings report that the chip shortage in June is related less to previous chip supply constraints and more to the boost in production capacity; for that reason the company believes chip supplies can be managed.Positive catalysts for NIOAmong the positive catalysts for the company are the attractive valuation as a result of being oversold, increasing deliveries, expanding model portfolio, its boost in production, and the growth of its battery swap stations.Initial response to the company's latest earnings report was a sell-off, as investors reacted to contracting margins coming from higher commodity and chip prices. But once the market absorbed the overall report and more numbers have come in, investors started looking at deliveries and the expected increase in production going forward.For example, in May NIO boosted deliveries to 7,024, bring its total for the year to 37,866, up almost 12 percent year-over-year. Revenue jumped to $1.56 billion, a gain of 24 percent from 1Q 2021.The point here is investors are starting to look at revenue and deliveries more than the past negative catalysts, as I mentioned earlier, have been already baked into the share price of NIO.Other positive catalysts include the recent launch of its highly anticipated ES7. Deliveries for the crossover are scheduled for August 28th. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) stated in a symposium that it is researching ways to boost its manufacturing sector as a result of the impact from COVID-19 restrictions. It is believed the EV sector in China will be a beneficiary of the new policies.Last, China's State Council is expected to retain tax breaks already in place in order to stimulate demand for EV sales. Council members believe the tax cuts would generate $29.8 billion in consumer spending on the sector.All of these things are tailwinds for NIO as it continues growth momentum.Probable taking of profits from NIO stockIf we see any negative catalyst that spooks NIO shareholders, I believe we'll see a fairly quick sell-off in shares in order to protect profits. To get an idea of the type of numbers we're looking at in a sell-off, we'll look at the last couple of months when the share price of NIO corrected.On May 4 traded at a little over $18.00 per share as a high, and by May 12 dropped to a 52-week low of $11.67. On May 20 it traded at a high of around $17.50, and by May 25 fell to $14.00 per share. More recently, on June 8 it traded at close to $20.45, and on June 13 dropped to a little under $16.00 per share. Since it dropped to about $16.00 per share on June 13, the price has soared to over $23.00 per share on June 23. Since May 12 the share price of NIO has about doubled.My thought here is anything that causes the market to produce fear will result in some quick offloading of shares in NIO. If there is a negative catalyst combined with taking profits, the share price will take a significant hit, but I don't see it lingering for long. I believe NIO has turned the corner and any negative news will only have a temporal effect on the company. As mentioned above, everything negative has already been priced into the share price of NIO, and the only thing that will potentially disrupt its momentum is another prolonged shutdown of Shanghai in response to a COVID outbreak. But again, this does nothing to change the fundamentals of the EV market, neither the fundamentals of NIO as a company.I'm bringing this up because shareholders shouldn't be too concerned about this in any way. My point of view is NIO is in no danger in the short or long term, and the only thing that negative catalysts can do is extend the time it takes for the company to resume extraordinary growth.ConclusionSince I see NIO's share price being disproportionately punished in response to macroeconomic and geopolitical events and concerns, it is very likely to outperform its peers in the near term as it moves back into alignment with its strong fundamentals.Further out, it is wisely building out production capacity as it introduces new models, positioning itself for a strong growth spurt as consumers start to spend again.With supply chains improving and the company boosting the price of its models in response to increase in the price of commodities and chips, it is improving its margins and bottom line under difficult circumstances. That said, some of its pre-orders in the past will take a hit until the company works through its inventory and fills those orders.My thesis is it's not a matter of if, but when NIO starts to regain strong growth momentum as it increases deliveries from strong consumer demand and larger production capacity.As we've seen after it hit its 52-week low on May 12, it has already doubled from that level. Once market sentiment improves even more, it's going to go a lot higher in the long haul.The key to me is to ignore the volatility in the EV sector and NIO's share price, focusing rather on the way the company has positioned itself to grow long into the future.There is no doubt in my mind that patient investors are going to be handsomely rewarded.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.6,"NIO":1,"NIO.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2304,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/683493531"}
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