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2022-07-20
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Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利无法预测。改为看这两点</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":686200815,"tweetId":"686200815","gmtCreate":1658318322838,"gmtModify":1704869611325,"author":{"id":3574813808924805,"idStr":"3574813808924805","authorId":3574813808924805,"authorIdStr":"3574813808924805","name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":76,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Cool</p></body></html>","text":"Cool","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686200815","repostId":1179310436,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179310436","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1658306313,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1179310436?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-20 16:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利无法预测。改为看这两点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179310436","media":"Barrons","summary":"No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, whenTeslareports its quarterlyearningson Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear:cash flowand demand.Lockdownsin China to fight C","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>没有人知道特斯拉周三公布季度收益时会发生什么，也不知道投资者会关注什么，但值得关注的关键点很明确：现金流和需求。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.</p><p><blockquote>中国为抗击 Covid-19 而实施的封锁措施限制了特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）以及整个中国汽车行业第二季度的生产。特斯拉上海工厂是该公司生产力最高的工厂，其产量损失使得准确预测这家电动汽车制造商的利润几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p>All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，特斯拉的收入可能会低于华尔街的预期。第二季度的利润预测最初约为每股 2.30 美元。现在它们的价格约为1.85美元，下跌了约20%。另一方面，对交付车辆的预测最初约为 350,000 辆，但该公司在本季度仅交付了 254,695 辆汽车。下降了 27%，比预估值的下降幅度差了 7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.</p><p><blockquote>交付量减少会减少收入，但就利润而言，损害可能会更大。在任何制造公司，销售损失或收益的百分比通常会在底线上放大。例如，特斯拉在整个第二季度都有固定成本，但并没有全部生产。</blockquote></p><p>The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation <i>Barron’s</i> described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩公布的设置与情况类似<i>巴伦</i>这是在特斯拉四月份第一季度业绩公布之前描述的。特斯拉交付的汽车少于华尔街预期，但盈利预测几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p>Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，盈利仍高于预期，为每股 3.22 美元，比华尔街预期高出约 1 美元。特斯拉汽车的价格好于预期，通货膨胀也没有像预期那样提高成本。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀仍然是一个问题，但汽车价格继续走高。据该公司网站称，特斯拉汽车的价格每年上涨 25% 至 30%。价格和成本的上涨可能会给特斯拉带来第二季度的打击。</blockquote></p><p>But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.</p><p><blockquote>但在第一季度，中国的产量达到了创纪录的182,174辆。第二季度，由于新冠疫情，产量下降至 112,583 辆。这一点很重要，因为上海工厂是该公司成本最低的运营地点。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉正在第二季度提高德克萨斯州和德国两家新工厂的产量。首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在最近的一次采访中称这些工厂为 “金钱熔炉”。这可能意味着提高产量的过程比预期的要慢。特斯拉没有回应澄清马斯克言论的请求。</blockquote></p><p>All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些复杂性意味着特斯拉第二季度的财报很可能无法清晰地展现公司中短期的前景。关注现金流和订单率更有意义。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>本季度初自由现金流的普遍估计约为 20 亿美元，但现在约为 5 亿美元。New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 认为，特斯拉可能只会在自由现金流方面实现收支平衡。据彭博社报道，这种悲观的观点来自一位将该股评级为买入的人士，目标股价为 1,580 美元，为华尔街最高。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉在艰难的第二季度产生了任何自由现金流，投资者应该感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉汽车订单是另一个关键指标，显示尽管通货膨胀、利率上升和经济放缓，需求仍保持得有多好。“Canaccord 分析师乔治-贾纳里卡斯（George Gianarikas）说：”注意订单的节奏。“对特斯拉来说，好消息是他们有很多订单。”对新款入门级 Model Y 的等待将持续到 2023 年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p>Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>交货时间是增加还是减少是Gianarikas的一个关键因素。他对该股持乐观态度，给予买入评级。他的目标价为 801 美元，是他对 2025 年每股收益预期的 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要等待盈利电话会议才能从管理层那里获得有关订单和需求的详细信息。下午5:30收听东部时间周三。Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 希望特斯拉能够认可其 50% 的单位增长指导。特斯拉的目标是在可预见的未来，销量平均每年增长 50%。这样的增长将使 2022 年的交付量达到约 140 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉评级为买入，目标价为 1,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>进入周三交易，特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 30%，比标普500综合指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌 17% 和 25% 的可比跌幅还要严重。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利无法预测。改为看这两点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla’s Earnings Are Impossible to Predict. Watch These 2 Points Instead<blockquote>特斯拉的盈利无法预测。改为看这两点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-20 16:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>没有人知道特斯拉周三公布季度收益时会发生什么，也不知道投资者会关注什么，但值得关注的关键点很明确：现金流和需求。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.</p><p><blockquote>中国为抗击 Covid-19 而实施的封锁措施限制了特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）以及整个中国汽车行业第二季度的生产。特斯拉上海工厂是该公司生产力最高的工厂，其产量损失使得准确预测这家电动汽车制造商的利润几乎不可能。</blockquote></p><p>All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，特斯拉的收入可能会低于华尔街的预期。第二季度的利润预测最初约为每股 2.30 美元。现在它们的价格约为1.85美元，下跌了约20%。另一方面，对交付车辆的预测最初约为 350,000 辆，但该公司在本季度仅交付了 254,695 辆汽车。下降了 27%，比预估值的下降幅度差了 7 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.</p><p><blockquote>交付量减少会减少收入，但就利润而言，损害可能会更大。在任何制造公司，销售损失或收益的百分比通常会在底线上放大。例如，特斯拉在整个第二季度都有固定成本，但并没有全部生产。</blockquote></p><p>The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation <i>Barron’s</i> described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩公布的设置与情况类似<i>巴伦</i>这是在特斯拉四月份第一季度业绩公布之前描述的。特斯拉交付的汽车少于华尔街预期，但盈利预测几乎没有变化。</blockquote></p><p>Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，盈利仍高于预期，为每股 3.22 美元，比华尔街预期高出约 1 美元。特斯拉汽车的价格好于预期，通货膨胀也没有像预期那样提高成本。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀仍然是一个问题，但汽车价格继续走高。据该公司网站称，特斯拉汽车的价格每年上涨 25% 至 30%。价格和成本的上涨可能会给特斯拉带来第二季度的打击。</blockquote></p><p>But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.</p><p><blockquote>但在第一季度，中国的产量达到了创纪录的182,174辆。第二季度，由于新冠疫情，产量下降至 112,583 辆。这一点很重要，因为上海工厂是该公司成本最低的运营地点。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，特斯拉正在第二季度提高德克萨斯州和德国两家新工厂的产量。首席执行官埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）在最近的一次采访中称这些工厂为 “金钱熔炉”。这可能意味着提高产量的过程比预期的要慢。特斯拉没有回应澄清马斯克言论的请求。</blockquote></p><p>All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.</p><p><blockquote>所有这些复杂性意味着特斯拉第二季度的财报很可能无法清晰地展现公司中短期的前景。关注现金流和订单率更有意义。</blockquote></p><p>The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>本季度初自由现金流的普遍估计约为 20 亿美元，但现在约为 5 亿美元。New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 认为，特斯拉可能只会在自由现金流方面实现收支平衡。据彭博社报道，这种悲观的观点来自一位将该股评级为买入的人士，目标股价为 1,580 美元，为华尔街最高。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉在艰难的第二季度产生了任何自由现金流，投资者应该感到高兴。</blockquote></p><p>Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉汽车订单是另一个关键指标，显示尽管通货膨胀、利率上升和经济放缓，需求仍保持得有多好。“Canaccord 分析师乔治-贾纳里卡斯（George Gianarikas）说：”注意订单的节奏。“对特斯拉来说，好消息是他们有很多订单。”对新款入门级 Model Y 的等待将持续到 2023 年第一季度。</blockquote></p><p>Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>交货时间是增加还是减少是Gianarikas的一个关键因素。他对该股持乐观态度，给予买入评级。他的目标价为 801 美元，是他对 2025 年每股收益预期的 25 倍。</blockquote></p><p>Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能需要等待盈利电话会议才能从管理层那里获得有关订单和需求的详细信息。下午5:30收听东部时间周三。Wedbush 分析师 Dan Ives 希望特斯拉能够认可其 50% 的单位增长指导。特斯拉的目标是在可预见的未来，销量平均每年增长 50%。这样的增长将使 2022 年的交付量达到约 140 万辆。</blockquote></p><p>Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉评级为买入，目标价为 1,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p>Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>进入周三交易，特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 30%，比标普500综合指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌 17% 和 25% 的可比跌幅还要严重。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-earnings-what-to-watch-51658170299?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-earnings-what-to-watch-51658170299?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179310436","content_text":"No one knows what to expect, or what investors will focus on, when Tesla reports its quarterly earnings on Wednesday, but the key points to watch are clear: cash flow and demand.Lockdowns in China to fight Covid-19 had the effect of constraining production at Tesla (ticker: TSLA), as well as the entire Chinese auto industry, in the second quarter. The output lost at Tesla’s Shanghai plant, which is the company’s most-productive factory, makes it nearly impossible to accurately project the electric-vehicle maker’s profits.All things considered, Tesla’ should probably earn less than what Wall Street expects. Profit forecasts for the second quarter started out at about $2.30 a share. Now they are at about $1.85, down about 20%. Forecasts for vehicles delivered, on the other hand, started out at about 350,000 units, but the company only delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter. That’s a 27% drop, seven percentage points worse than the decline in estimates.Fewer deliveries reduce revenue, but the damage is likely to be worse in terms of profits. At any manufacturing company, percentage losses or gains in sales are typically magnified on the bottom line. Tesla, for instance, had all its fixed costs throughout the second quarter, but it didn’t have all of its production.The setup for the second-quarter results announcement is similar to the situation Barron’s described before Tesla’s first-quarter results came out in April. Tesla had delivered fewer cars than Wall Street expected, but forecasts of earnings barely budged.Still, earnings came in higher than expected, at $3.22 a share, about $1 higher than Wall Street projected. Prices for Tesla’s cars turned out to have been better than forecast and inflation didn’t raise costs as much as expected.Inflation is still a problem, but vehicle prices continue to march higher. Prices for Tesla vehicles are up in the range of 25% to 30% year over year, according to the company’s website. Rising prices and costs may turn out to have been a wash for Tesla in the second quarter.But in the first quarter, Chinese production was a record 182,174 units. In the second quarter, because of Covid, production fell to 112,583 cars. That matters because the Shanghai facility is the company’s lowest-cost operation.At the same time, Tesla was ramping up production up at two new facilities, in Texas and Germany, in the second quarter. CEO Elon Musk referred to those plants as “money furnaces” in a recent interview. That could mean the process of boosting production has gone slower than expected. Tesla didn’t respond to a request for clarification of Musk’s comments.All of those complexities mean that Tesla’s second-quarter earnings likely won’t offer a clear picture of the company’s prospects for the near and medium term. It makes more sense to focus on cash flow and order rates.The consensus estimate for free cash flow started out the quarter at about $2 billion, but it is now at about $500 million. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu believes Tesla might only break even in terms of free cash flow. That downbeat view comes from a man who rates the stock at Buy, with a target for the share price of $1,580, the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.If Tesla turns out to have generated any free cash flow in the tough second quarter, investors should be pleased.Orders for Tesla cars are another critical indicator, showing how well demand is holding up despite inflation, rising interest rates, and a slowing economy. “Watch the cadence of orders,” says Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas. “The good news for Tesla is they have so many orders.” The wait for a new, base-level, Model Y stretches into the first quarter of 2023.Whether lead times are increasing or fall is a key factor for Gianarikas. He is positive about the stock, rating it at Buy. His target for the price is $801, which is 25 times his estimate of 2025 earnings per share.Investors will probably have to wait for the earnings conference call to get details about orders and demand from management. Tune in at 5:30 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives hopes that Tesla will endorse its 50% unit growth guidance. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. Growth like that would put 2022 deliveries at about 1.4 million units.Ives rates Tesla at Buy with a $1,000 price target.Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock is down about 30% so far this year, worse than the 17% and 25% comparable, respective declines of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1184,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/686200815"}
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