highhand
2021-12-16
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Is Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布之前值得买入吗？</blockquote>
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Get it?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690368323","repostId":1143987480,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143987480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639618157,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143987480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布之前值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143987480","media":"TheStreet","summary":"On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what invest","content":"<p>On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.</p><p><blockquote>12月16日，Rivian RIVN将公布上市以来的首份财报。以下是投资者在了解这家电动汽车制造商第三季度收益时应该关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车巨头Rivian将于12月16日公布财报，这是自11月初大肆宣传的IPO以来的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian首次亮相的惊人反弹使这家电动汽车制造商实现了比通用汽车和福特等传统美国汽车制造商巨头更大的市值，尽管该公司尚未公布任何收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2020a08ae7df976ad58c68b103b53ec2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：RIVN股票IPO上的Rivian R1T皮卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，Rivian要证明自己值得被估值为1000亿美元的公司，面临着巨大的挑战。但在当今高度投机的市场中，基本面真的重要吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect for Q3 earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对第三季度收益的预期</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian和其他大型电动汽车公司尽管属于汽车行业，但仍被列为科技股。这些公司将自己视为技术游戏规则的改变者——摆脱化石燃料的新交通模式的成员。</blockquote></p><p> A growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.</p><p><blockquote>以增长为中心的观点在一定程度上解释了为什么像特斯拉和Rivian这样的公司，尽管它们每年生产的汽车比福特和通用等传统汽车公司少得多，但它们的市值却更大。市场正在为颠覆性技术定价，这些技术可能会彻底改变整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> But from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>但从纯粹基于基本面的角度来看，1000亿美元的市值现在几乎不可能证明是合理的，甚至几年后也可能不合理。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian的收入为零，实际产能为每年15万辆。如果我们假设产量达到峰值产能，Rivian目前每生产一辆电动汽车的股权价值约为675,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，考虑到2020年的产量，福特每生产一辆汽车的价值为20,470美元。该公司在2020年还创造了1270亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Since Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.</p><p><blockquote>由于Rivian的汽车尚未进入经销商处，财报日的情绪将主要是（如果不是纯粹的）投机性的。可能的移动催化剂包括新订单的增加、新技术的推出或另一个主要合作伙伴关系的宣布。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使还没有销售，Rivian的股价也有很多理由可能会上涨至创纪录的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Puts or calls? Or maybe both?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看跌期权还是评级？或者两者都有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Traders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>愿意参与Rivian“盈利游戏”的交易者可能会发现选择是最佳举措。鉴于围绕Rivian的高度猜测，这家电动汽车制造商的股价在财报发布后可能会上涨或暴跌。如果情况确实如此，多头跨式策略可能会获得可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> A long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.</p><p><blockquote>多头跨式策略涉及购买同一标的股票和同一到期日的看涨期权和看跌期权。只要标的股票的价格出现重大变动，多头跨式多头就会出现——变动的方向并不重要。此类策略通常用于高波动性收益押注的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.</p><p><blockquote>当然，多头跨式并不能保证惊人的利润。Rivian财报发布后的股价变动可能远低于预期，这意味着评级和看跌期权到期时都可能一文不值。此外，由于预期RIVN第三季度收益而大量买入期权可能会推高看跌期权和评级的价格，从而侵蚀交易的潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该在盈利之前购买Rivian吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街专家表示，Rivian股票在财报公布前属于“适度买入”——共识表明，尽管市值极高，但Rivian股票仍被低估。该公司目前的平均目标价为135美元，这意味着上涨16%。</blockquote></p><p> The most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.</p><p><blockquote>最乐观的评级来自美国银行证券分析师John Murphy，他认为该股未来上涨46%，目标价为170美元。Murphy认为，Rivian凭借其“极其全面和构建良好的业务战略，以及可靠/创新的技术和有趣/有吸引力的产品，并得到了关键锚定客户（亚马逊）的验证”，在其他电动汽车制造商中脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Baird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>Baird的George Gianarikas认为Rivian是唯一一家能够真正与特斯拉竞争的电动汽车制造商。该分析师认为，Rivian对电动汽车市场充满希望的态度、稳健的资产负债表以及与亚马逊的合作伙伴关系是其股价在未来12个月内达到150美元的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>但并非街上的每个人都看好RIVN。高盛分析师Mark Delainey对此持怀疑态度，给予Rivian中性评级，目标价94美元，意味着下跌近19%。尽管德莱尼发现Rivian的产品系列很有吸引力，并认为该公司的品牌影响力不断增长，但他认为，汽车行业的历史数据表明，新来者扩大规模是多么困难——即使这些新来者是电动汽车制造商。该分析师还预计，从2021年第四季度到2025年底，现金消耗约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布之前值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布之前值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.</p><p><blockquote>12月16日，Rivian RIVN将公布上市以来的首份财报。以下是投资者在了解这家电动汽车制造商第三季度收益时应该关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车巨头Rivian将于12月16日公布财报，这是自11月初大肆宣传的IPO以来的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian首次亮相的惊人反弹使这家电动汽车制造商实现了比通用汽车和福特等传统美国汽车制造商巨头更大的市值，尽管该公司尚未公布任何收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2020a08ae7df976ad58c68b103b53ec2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：RIVN股票IPO上的Rivian R1T皮卡。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，Rivian要证明自己值得被估值为1000亿美元的公司，面临着巨大的挑战。但在当今高度投机的市场中，基本面真的重要吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect for Q3 earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对第三季度收益的预期</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian和其他大型电动汽车公司尽管属于汽车行业，但仍被列为科技股。这些公司将自己视为技术游戏规则的改变者——摆脱化石燃料的新交通模式的成员。</blockquote></p><p> A growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.</p><p><blockquote>以增长为中心的观点在一定程度上解释了为什么像特斯拉和Rivian这样的公司，尽管它们每年生产的汽车比福特和通用等传统汽车公司少得多，但它们的市值却更大。市场正在为颠覆性技术定价，这些技术可能会彻底改变整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> But from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>但从纯粹基于基本面的角度来看，1000亿美元的市值现在几乎不可能证明是合理的，甚至几年后也可能不合理。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian的收入为零，实际产能为每年15万辆。如果我们假设产量达到峰值产能，Rivian目前每生产一辆电动汽车的股权价值约为675,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，考虑到2020年的产量，福特每生产一辆汽车的价值为20,470美元。该公司在2020年还创造了1270亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Since Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.</p><p><blockquote>由于Rivian的汽车尚未进入经销商处，财报日的情绪将主要是（如果不是纯粹的）投机性的。可能的移动催化剂包括新订单的增加、新技术的推出或另一个主要合作伙伴关系的宣布。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使还没有销售，Rivian的股价也有很多理由可能会上涨至创纪录的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Puts or calls? Or maybe both?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看跌期权还是评级？或者两者都有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Traders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>愿意参与Rivian“盈利游戏”的交易者可能会发现选择是最佳举措。鉴于围绕Rivian的高度猜测，这家电动汽车制造商的股价在财报发布后可能会上涨或暴跌。如果情况确实如此，多头跨式策略可能会获得可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> A long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.</p><p><blockquote>多头跨式策略涉及购买同一标的股票和同一到期日的看涨期权和看跌期权。只要标的股票的价格出现重大变动，多头跨式多头就会出现——变动的方向并不重要。此类策略通常用于高波动性收益押注的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.</p><p><blockquote>当然，多头跨式并不能保证惊人的利润。Rivian财报发布后的股价变动可能远低于预期，这意味着评级和看跌期权到期时都可能一文不值。此外，由于预期RIVN第三季度收益而大量买入期权可能会推高看跌期权和评级的价格，从而侵蚀交易的潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该在盈利之前购买Rivian吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街专家表示，Rivian股票在财报公布前属于“适度买入”——共识表明，尽管市值极高，但Rivian股票仍被低估。该公司目前的平均目标价为135美元，这意味着上涨16%。</blockquote></p><p> The most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.</p><p><blockquote>最乐观的评级来自美国银行证券分析师John Murphy，他认为该股未来上涨46%，目标价为170美元。Murphy认为，Rivian凭借其“极其全面和构建良好的业务战略，以及可靠/创新的技术和有趣/有吸引力的产品，并得到了关键锚定客户（亚马逊）的验证”，在其他电动汽车制造商中脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Baird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>Baird的George Gianarikas认为Rivian是唯一一家能够真正与特斯拉竞争的电动汽车制造商。该分析师认为，Rivian对电动汽车市场充满希望的态度、稳健的资产负债表以及与亚马逊的合作伙伴关系是其股价在未来12个月内达到150美元的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>但并非街上的每个人都看好RIVN。高盛分析师Mark Delainey对此持怀疑态度，给予Rivian中性评级，目标价94美元，意味着下跌近19%。尽管德莱尼发现Rivian的产品系列很有吸引力，并认为该公司的品牌影响力不断增长，但他认为，汽车行业的历史数据表明，新来者扩大规模是多么困难——即使这些新来者是电动汽车制造商。该分析师还预计，从2021年第四季度到2025年底，现金消耗约为200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/is-rivian-stock-a-buy-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/is-rivian-stock-a-buy-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143987480","content_text":"On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.\nElectric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.\nRivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.\nFigure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.\nFrom a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?\nWhat to expect for Q3 earnings\nRivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.\nA growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.\nBut from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.\nRivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.\nFord, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.\nSince Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.\nTherefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.\nPuts or calls? Or maybe both?\nTraders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.\nA long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.\nOf course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.\nShould investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?\nAccording to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.\nThe most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.\nBaird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.\nBut not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2549,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["08100"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":15,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690368323"}
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