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2021-12-17

Hope so

Inflation May Have Peaked. It’s Time for Stocks to Rally.<blockquote>通胀可能已经见顶。股市是时候反弹了。</blockquote>

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It’s Time for Stocks to Rally.<blockquote>通胀可能已经见顶。股市是时候反弹了。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190855909","media":"Barrons","summary":"Inflation is likely to ease in the near future and when it does, the stock market should perform han","content":"Inflation is likely to ease in the near future and when it does, the stock market should perform handsomely thereafter, judging from history.<blockquote>通胀可能会在不久的将来缓解，从历史来看，当这种情况发生时，股市应该会表现良好。</blockquote> The Consumer Price Index rose 6.8% year-over-year in December, its highest reading since 1982. Driving that inflation is a surge in demand compared with last year’s lockdown-laden economy and a limited supply of products and labor, which causes companies’ costs to rise.<blockquote>12月份消费者价格指数同比上涨6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。与去年充满封锁的经济相比，推动通胀的是需求激增以及产品和劳动力供应有限，这导致企业成本上升。</blockquote> But gravity will bring the inflation rate down. Long-term expectations for average annual inflation are below 3%, according to St. Louis Fed data. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has made clear that it is rapidly ending its pandemic-era monetary support program and is now projected to raise interest rates three times in 2022 to combat inflation.<blockquote>但是重力会降低通货膨胀率。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，对年均通胀率的长期预期低于3%。此外，美联储已明确表示，它正在迅速结束大流行时期的货币支持计划，目前预计将在2022年加息三次以对抗通胀。</blockquote> If U.S. inflation is nearing its peak for this economic expansion—even if the December reading wasn’t the exact peak—the stock market should perform well. On average, the S&amp;P 500 sees a 13.2% return in the 12 months following peak inflation since 1951, according to data from The Leuthold Group. The index saw a one-year decline in only three out of the 13 instances. All three years, 1957, 2000 and 2008, came just before recessions.<blockquote>如果美国通胀接近经济扩张的峰值——即使12月份的读数不是确切的峰值——股市应该会表现良好。根据Leuthold Group的数据，自1951年以来通胀峰值后的12个月内，标普500的平均回报率为13.2%。该指数在13个案例中只有3个案例出现了一年内下降。1957年、2000年和2008年这三年都发生在经济衰退之前。</blockquote> The point is that, after inflation peaks during a time when the economy is in a good place, stocks fare well. “Even if inflation stays elevated in the coming year, if the overall inflation rate soon hits its ceiling, this has traditionally proved bullish for the stock market,” wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.<blockquote>关键是，在经济状况良好的时期通胀见顶后，股市表现良好。Leuthold Group首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen写道：“即使未来一年通胀保持高位，如果整体通胀率很快触及上限，传统上这对股市来说是看涨的。”</blockquote> A rising market isn’t a sure thing. The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could be strong enough to significantly reduce economic growth. Still, the Fed would have to raise rates fairly abruptly to disrupt economic growth and the stock market’s larger advance.<blockquote>市场上涨并不是板上钉钉的事情。美联储收紧货币政策的力度可能足以大幅降低经济增长。尽管如此，美联储将不得不相当突然地加息，以扰乱经济增长和股市的更大上涨。</blockquote> Don’t be afraid of inflation. Just watch the Fed.<blockquote>不要害怕通货膨胀。看看美联储就知道了。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation May Have Peaked. It’s Time for Stocks to Rally.<blockquote>通胀可能已经见顶。股市是时候反弹了。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation May Have Peaked. It’s Time for Stocks to Rally.<blockquote>通胀可能已经见顶。股市是时候反弹了。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2021-12-17 07:41\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInflation is likely to ease in the near future and when it does, the stock market should perform handsomely thereafter, judging from history.<blockquote>通胀可能会在不久的将来缓解，从历史来看，当这种情况发生时，股市应该会表现良好。</blockquote> The Consumer Price Index rose 6.8% year-over-year in December, its highest reading since 1982. Driving that inflation is a surge in demand compared with last year’s lockdown-laden economy and a limited supply of products and labor, which causes companies’ costs to rise.<blockquote>12月份消费者价格指数同比上涨6.8%，为1982年以来的最高水平。与去年充满封锁的经济相比，推动通胀的是需求激增以及产品和劳动力供应有限，这导致企业成本上升。</blockquote> But gravity will bring the inflation rate down. Long-term expectations for average annual inflation are below 3%, according to St. Louis Fed data. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has made clear that it is rapidly ending its pandemic-era monetary support program and is now projected to raise interest rates three times in 2022 to combat inflation.<blockquote>但是重力会降低通货膨胀率。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，对年均通胀率的长期预期低于3%。此外，美联储已明确表示，它正在迅速结束大流行时期的货币支持计划，目前预计将在2022年加息三次以对抗通胀。</blockquote> If U.S. inflation is nearing its peak for this economic expansion—even if the December reading wasn’t the exact peak—the stock market should perform well. On average, the S&amp;P 500 sees a 13.2% return in the 12 months following peak inflation since 1951, according to data from The Leuthold Group. The index saw a one-year decline in only three out of the 13 instances. All three years, 1957, 2000 and 2008, came just before recessions.<blockquote>如果美国通胀接近经济扩张的峰值——即使12月份的读数不是确切的峰值——股市应该会表现良好。根据Leuthold Group的数据，自1951年以来通胀峰值后的12个月内，标普500的平均回报率为13.2%。该指数在13个案例中只有3个案例出现了一年内下降。1957年、2000年和2008年这三年都发生在经济衰退之前。</blockquote> The point is that, after inflation peaks during a time when the economy is in a good place, stocks fare well. “Even if inflation stays elevated in the coming year, if the overall inflation rate soon hits its ceiling, this has traditionally proved bullish for the stock market,” wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.<blockquote>关键是，在经济状况良好的时期通胀见顶后，股市表现良好。Leuthold Group首席投资策略师Jim Paulsen写道：“即使未来一年通胀保持高位，如果整体通胀率很快触及上限，传统上这对股市来说是看涨的。”</blockquote> A rising market isn’t a sure thing. The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could be strong enough to significantly reduce economic growth. Still, the Fed would have to raise rates fairly abruptly to disrupt economic growth and the stock market’s larger advance.<blockquote>市场上涨并不是板上钉钉的事情。美联储收紧货币政策的力度可能足以大幅降低经济增长。尽管如此，美联储将不得不相当突然地加息，以扰乱经济增长和股市的更大上涨。</blockquote> Don’t be afraid of inflation. Just watch the Fed.<blockquote>不要害怕通货膨胀。看看美联储就知道了。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-may-have-peaked-its-time-for-stocks-to-rally-51639694638?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-may-have-peaked-its-time-for-stocks-to-rally-51639694638?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190855909","content_text":"Inflation is likely to ease in the near future and when it does, the stock market should perform handsomely thereafter, judging from history.\nThe Consumer Price Index rose 6.8% year-over-year in December, its highest reading since 1982. Driving that inflation is a surge in demand compared with last year’s lockdown-laden economy and a limited supply of products and labor, which causes companies’ costs to rise.\nBut gravity will bring the inflation rate down. Long-term expectations for average annual inflation are below 3%, according to St. Louis Fed data. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has made clear that it is rapidly ending its pandemic-era monetary support program and is now projected to raise interest rates three times in 2022 to combat inflation.\nIf U.S. inflation is nearing its peak for this economic expansion—even if the December reading wasn’t the exact peak—the stock market should perform well. On average, the S&P 500 sees a 13.2% return in the 12 months following peak inflation since 1951, according to data from The Leuthold Group. The index saw a one-year decline in only three out of the 13 instances. All three years, 1957, 2000 and 2008, came just before recessions.\nThe point is that, after inflation peaks during a time when the economy is in a good place, stocks fare well. “Even if inflation stays elevated in the coming year, if the overall inflation rate soon hits its ceiling, this has traditionally proved bullish for the stock market,” wrote Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.\nA rising market isn’t a sure thing. The Fed’s tightening of monetary policy could be strong enough to significantly reduce economic growth. Still, the Fed would have to raise rates fairly abruptly to disrupt economic growth and the stock market’s larger advance.\nDon’t be afraid of inflation. Just watch the Fed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["HOPE"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690409617"}