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2021-12-17
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Stocks’ reaction to latest inflation and jobs reports suggests that investors’ fears are overblown<blockquote>股市对最新通胀和就业报告的反应表明投资者的担忧被夸大了</blockquote>
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":690471469,"tweetId":"690471469","gmtCreate":1639705369382,"gmtModify":1639705471774,"author":{"id":3571706108874965,"idStr":"3571706108874965","authorId":3571706108874965,"authorIdStr":"3571706108874965","name":"Dem0171c","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a58b3c964064b6dcc209f03697fba7","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":21,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Latest</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Latest</p></body></html>","text":"Latest","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690471469","repostId":1189772579,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189772579","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639704109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189772579?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 09:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks’ reaction to latest inflation and jobs reports suggests that investors’ fears are overblown<blockquote>股市对最新通胀和就业报告的反应表明投资者的担忧被夸大了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189772579","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"U.S. inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be to the downside than the upside\nGett","content":"<p>U.S. inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be to the downside than the upside</p><p><blockquote>2022年和2023年美国通胀意外下行的可能性大于上行</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8066e02530f188ac45f6252937991422\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Getty Images/iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You’re almost certainly too worried about inflation. I acknowledge that my contrarian position on inflation is becoming increasingly solitary. Even U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who had been solidly in the “inflation is transitory” camp, threw in the towel at this week’s meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee — along with most other members of that Committee as well.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，你太担心通货膨胀了。我承认，我在通胀问题上的逆向立场正变得越来越孤立。就连一直坚定站在“通胀是暂时的”阵营的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也在本周的美联储公开市场委员会会议上认输了，该委员会的大多数其他成员也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> I nevertheless am sticking with my contrarian position because of how Wall Street behaved on two recent occasions. The first came on Dec. 10, as the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index inflation is running at a 6.8% annual rate, higher than what economists polled by MarketWatch had expected and the highest since July 1982. Yet almost immediately following the release of this inflation news, S&P 500 e-mini futures rose 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于华尔街最近两次的表现，我仍坚持我的逆向立场。第一次发生在12月10日，美国劳工部报告称，消费者价格指数通胀率年率为6.8%，高于MarketWatch调查的经济学家的预期，也是1982年7月以来的最高水平。然而，这一通胀消息发布后，标普500 E-mini期货几乎立即上涨了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> This move higher occurred on heavy trading volume, and it’s impossible to ascertain the motives and beliefs of the individual futures traders who bid up the S&P 500 futures on Dec. 10. But the suddenness of the price increase immediately after 8:30 a.m., and the absence of any other major news at that hour, points overwhelmingly to the inflation news being the catalyst for the market’s rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一走高是在交易量巨大的情况下发生的，无法确定12月10日抬高标普500期货价格的个别期货交易员的动机和信念。但价格在上午8:30后突然上涨，而且当时没有任何其他重大消息，这压倒性地表明通胀消息是市场上涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> This reaction was surprising, to say the least. The news media over the past six months has been obsessed with whether inflation’s spike is more than temporary, and with how persistent inflation would cause the Fed to tighten more aggressively. In contrast, Wall Street’s reaction to the inflation news suggests that it’s not that worried.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，这种反应令人惊讶。过去六个月，新闻媒体一直痴迷于通胀飙升是否不仅仅是暂时的，以及持续的通胀将如何导致美联储更激进地收紧政策。相比之下，华尔街对通胀消息的反应表明它并没有那么担心。</blockquote></p><p> The second occasion on which Wall Street indicated it’s not particularly concerned about inflation came in the wake of the <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-jobs-report-for-november-11638537320?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">Dec. 3 jobs report</a>, a week prior to the release of the latest inflation data. Even though the Labor Department reported that far fewer jobs were created in November than had been expected, stocks rose: over the 60 minutes following the Labor Department’s release, December S&P 500 futures added 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街第二次表示并不特别担心通胀是在<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-jobs-report-for-november-11638537320?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">12月3日就业报告</a>，在最新通胀数据发布前一周。尽管劳工部报告称11月份创造的就业机会远低于预期，但股市仍上涨：在劳工部发布消息后的60分钟内，12月标普500期货上涨了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> You easily could have imagined the market reacting differently. It seems plausible that a softer economy would prompt the Fed to pursue more inflationary policies. If Wall Street was as anxious about higher inflation as the news media would have you believe, this jobs report would have sent stocks into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>你很容易想象市场会有不同的反应。经济疲软将促使美联储推行更多通胀政策，这似乎是合理的。如果华尔街像新闻媒体让你相信的那样对通胀上升感到焦虑，这份就业报告就会让股市陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> That it didn’t react that way suggests that the “market is less worried about long-term inflation,” Ravi Jagannathan, a finance professor at Northwestern University, told me in an email. That’s “good news.”</p><p><blockquote>西北大学金融学教授拉维·贾甘纳森(Ravi Jagannathan)在一封电子邮件中告诉我，它没有这样的反应表明“市场不太担心长期通胀”。那是“好消息”。</blockquote></p><p> I reached out to Professor Jagannathan because he co-authored a unique study many years ago on how to interpret the investment significance of the monthly jobs numbers. That study, entitled “The Stock Market’s Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,” was published in the <i>Journal of Finance</i> in 2005. His co-authors were John Boyd, a finance professor at the University of Minnesota, and Jian Hu of Moody’s Investors Service.</p><p><blockquote>我联系了Jagannathan教授，因为他多年前与人合著了一项独特的研究，研究如何解读每月就业数据的投资意义。这项题为“股市对失业消息的反应：为什么坏消息通常对股市有利”的研究发表在《<i>金融学报</i>2005年。他的合著者是明尼苏达大学金融学教授约翰·博伊德和穆迪投资者服务公司的胡健。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s sanguine reaction to these early-December reports on inflation and jobs is echoed in the strikingly different inflation expectations of consumers, on the one hand, and professional forecasters on the other.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街对这些12月初通胀和就业报告的乐观反应与消费者和专业预测者截然不同的通胀预期相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest survey conducted by the University of Michigan, the median expected rise in the CPI over the next 12 months is 4.9%. In contrast, according to the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, the median expectation for 2022 is that the CPI will rise 2.4% — less than half of what consumers are expecting. The professional forecasters’ expectation is in the same ballpark as a quantitative model created by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, which is projecting that the CPI over the next 12 months will rise by 2.62%.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学最新调查显示，未来12个月CPI预期涨幅中位数为4.9%。相比之下，根据费城联储对专业预测者的最新调查，2022年的预期中值是CPI将上涨2.4%——不到消费者预期的一半。专业预测者的预期与克利夫兰联储创建的定量模型大致相同，该模型预计未来12个月CPI将上涨2.62%。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the Cleveland model is expecting inflation to be lower in 2023. Their model currently is projecting a two-year CPI increase of 2.05% annualized. To get a two-year rate that low, when the first of the two years is experiencing 2.62% inflation, the CPI in 2023 would have to rise by around 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，克利夫兰模型预计2023年通胀率将较低。他们的模型目前预测两年CPI年化涨幅为2.05%。为了获得如此低的两年利率，当两年第一年的通胀率为2.62%时，2023年的CPI必须上涨1.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Yet another straw in the wind that inflation’s recent spike may be transitory is how the Cleveland model’s projection of 10-year inflation changed in the wake of the Dec. 10 inflation report. Believe it or not, it went down, however slightly, — to 1.75% from 1.76% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>最近通胀飙升可能是暂时的另一根稻草是克利夫兰模型对10年通胀的预测在12月10日通胀报告发布后发生了怎样的变化。不管你信不信，它从年化1.76%下降到1.75%，无论多么轻微。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bottom line? The inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be on the downside than on the upside. Plan accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>底线？2022年和2023年的通胀意外更有可能是下行而不是上行。相应地计划。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks’ reaction to latest inflation and jobs reports suggests that investors’ fears are overblown<blockquote>股市对最新通胀和就业报告的反应表明投资者的担忧被夸大了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks’ reaction to latest inflation and jobs reports suggests that investors’ fears are overblown<blockquote>股市对最新通胀和就业报告的反应表明投资者的担忧被夸大了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 09:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be to the downside than the upside</p><p><blockquote>2022年和2023年美国通胀意外下行的可能性大于上行</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8066e02530f188ac45f6252937991422\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Getty Images/iStockphoto</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片社/iStockphoto</span></p></blockquote></p><p> You’re almost certainly too worried about inflation. I acknowledge that my contrarian position on inflation is becoming increasingly solitary. Even U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who had been solidly in the “inflation is transitory” camp, threw in the towel at this week’s meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee — along with most other members of that Committee as well.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，你太担心通货膨胀了。我承认，我在通胀问题上的逆向立场正变得越来越孤立。就连一直坚定站在“通胀是暂时的”阵营的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也在本周的美联储公开市场委员会会议上认输了，该委员会的大多数其他成员也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> I nevertheless am sticking with my contrarian position because of how Wall Street behaved on two recent occasions. The first came on Dec. 10, as the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index inflation is running at a 6.8% annual rate, higher than what economists polled by MarketWatch had expected and the highest since July 1982. Yet almost immediately following the release of this inflation news, S&P 500 e-mini futures rose 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，由于华尔街最近两次的表现，我仍坚持我的逆向立场。第一次发生在12月10日，美国劳工部报告称，消费者价格指数通胀率年率为6.8%，高于MarketWatch调查的经济学家的预期，也是1982年7月以来的最高水平。然而，这一通胀消息发布后，标普500 E-mini期货几乎立即上涨了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> This move higher occurred on heavy trading volume, and it’s impossible to ascertain the motives and beliefs of the individual futures traders who bid up the S&P 500 futures on Dec. 10. But the suddenness of the price increase immediately after 8:30 a.m., and the absence of any other major news at that hour, points overwhelmingly to the inflation news being the catalyst for the market’s rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一走高是在交易量巨大的情况下发生的，无法确定12月10日抬高标普500期货价格的个别期货交易员的动机和信念。但价格在上午8:30后突然上涨，而且当时没有任何其他重大消息，这压倒性地表明通胀消息是市场上涨的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> This reaction was surprising, to say the least. The news media over the past six months has been obsessed with whether inflation’s spike is more than temporary, and with how persistent inflation would cause the Fed to tighten more aggressively. In contrast, Wall Street’s reaction to the inflation news suggests that it’s not that worried.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，这种反应令人惊讶。过去六个月，新闻媒体一直痴迷于通胀飙升是否不仅仅是暂时的，以及持续的通胀将如何导致美联储更激进地收紧政策。相比之下，华尔街对通胀消息的反应表明它并没有那么担心。</blockquote></p><p> The second occasion on which Wall Street indicated it’s not particularly concerned about inflation came in the wake of the <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-jobs-report-for-november-11638537320?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">Dec. 3 jobs report</a>, a week prior to the release of the latest inflation data. Even though the Labor Department reported that far fewer jobs were created in November than had been expected, stocks rose: over the 60 minutes following the Labor Department’s release, December S&P 500 futures added 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街第二次表示并不特别担心通胀是在<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-u-s-jobs-report-for-november-11638537320?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">12月3日就业报告</a>，在最新通胀数据发布前一周。尽管劳工部报告称11月份创造的就业机会远低于预期，但股市仍上涨：在劳工部发布消息后的60分钟内，12月标普500期货上涨了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> You easily could have imagined the market reacting differently. It seems plausible that a softer economy would prompt the Fed to pursue more inflationary policies. If Wall Street was as anxious about higher inflation as the news media would have you believe, this jobs report would have sent stocks into a tailspin.</p><p><blockquote>你很容易想象市场会有不同的反应。经济疲软将促使美联储推行更多通胀政策，这似乎是合理的。如果华尔街像新闻媒体让你相信的那样对通胀上升感到焦虑，这份就业报告就会让股市陷入混乱。</blockquote></p><p> That it didn’t react that way suggests that the “market is less worried about long-term inflation,” Ravi Jagannathan, a finance professor at Northwestern University, told me in an email. That’s “good news.”</p><p><blockquote>西北大学金融学教授拉维·贾甘纳森(Ravi Jagannathan)在一封电子邮件中告诉我，它没有这样的反应表明“市场不太担心长期通胀”。那是“好消息”。</blockquote></p><p> I reached out to Professor Jagannathan because he co-authored a unique study many years ago on how to interpret the investment significance of the monthly jobs numbers. That study, entitled “The Stock Market’s Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,” was published in the <i>Journal of Finance</i> in 2005. His co-authors were John Boyd, a finance professor at the University of Minnesota, and Jian Hu of Moody’s Investors Service.</p><p><blockquote>我联系了Jagannathan教授，因为他多年前与人合著了一项独特的研究，研究如何解读每月就业数据的投资意义。这项题为“股市对失业消息的反应：为什么坏消息通常对股市有利”的研究发表在《<i>金融学报</i>2005年。他的合著者是明尼苏达大学金融学教授约翰·博伊德和穆迪投资者服务公司的胡健。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s sanguine reaction to these early-December reports on inflation and jobs is echoed in the strikingly different inflation expectations of consumers, on the one hand, and professional forecasters on the other.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街对这些12月初通胀和就业报告的乐观反应与消费者和专业预测者截然不同的通胀预期相呼应。</blockquote></p><p> According to the latest survey conducted by the University of Michigan, the median expected rise in the CPI over the next 12 months is 4.9%. In contrast, according to the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, the median expectation for 2022 is that the CPI will rise 2.4% — less than half of what consumers are expecting. The professional forecasters’ expectation is in the same ballpark as a quantitative model created by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, which is projecting that the CPI over the next 12 months will rise by 2.62%.</p><p><blockquote>密歇根大学最新调查显示，未来12个月CPI预期涨幅中位数为4.9%。相比之下，根据费城联储对专业预测者的最新调查，2022年的预期中值是CPI将上涨2.4%——不到消费者预期的一半。专业预测者的预期与克利夫兰联储创建的定量模型大致相同，该模型预计未来12个月CPI将上涨2.62%。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the Cleveland model is expecting inflation to be lower in 2023. Their model currently is projecting a two-year CPI increase of 2.05% annualized. To get a two-year rate that low, when the first of the two years is experiencing 2.62% inflation, the CPI in 2023 would have to rise by around 1.5%.</p><p><blockquote>此外，克利夫兰模型预计2023年通胀率将较低。他们的模型目前预测两年CPI年化涨幅为2.05%。为了获得如此低的两年利率，当两年第一年的通胀率为2.62%时，2023年的CPI必须上涨1.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Yet another straw in the wind that inflation’s recent spike may be transitory is how the Cleveland model’s projection of 10-year inflation changed in the wake of the Dec. 10 inflation report. Believe it or not, it went down, however slightly, — to 1.75% from 1.76% annualized.</p><p><blockquote>最近通胀飙升可能是暂时的另一根稻草是克利夫兰模型对10年通胀的预测在12月10日通胀报告发布后发生了怎样的变化。不管你信不信，它从年化1.76%下降到1.75%，无论多么轻微。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The bottom line? The inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be on the downside than on the upside. Plan accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>底线？2022年和2023年的通胀意外更有可能是下行而不是上行。相应地计划。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-reaction-to-latest-inflation-and-jobs-reports-suggests-that-investors-fears-are-overblown-11639694633?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-reaction-to-latest-inflation-and-jobs-reports-suggests-that-investors-fears-are-overblown-11639694633?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189772579","content_text":"U.S. inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be to the downside than the upside\nGetty Images/iStockphoto\n\nYou’re almost certainly too worried about inflation. I acknowledge that my contrarian position on inflation is becoming increasingly solitary. Even U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, who had been solidly in the “inflation is transitory” camp, threw in the towel at this week’s meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee — along with most other members of that Committee as well.\nI nevertheless am sticking with my contrarian position because of how Wall Street behaved on two recent occasions. The first came on Dec. 10, as the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index inflation is running at a 6.8% annual rate, higher than what economists polled by MarketWatch had expected and the highest since July 1982. Yet almost immediately following the release of this inflation news, S&P 500 e-mini futures rose 0.5%.\nThis move higher occurred on heavy trading volume, and it’s impossible to ascertain the motives and beliefs of the individual futures traders who bid up the S&P 500 futures on Dec. 10. But the suddenness of the price increase immediately after 8:30 a.m., and the absence of any other major news at that hour, points overwhelmingly to the inflation news being the catalyst for the market’s rise.\nThis reaction was surprising, to say the least. The news media over the past six months has been obsessed with whether inflation’s spike is more than temporary, and with how persistent inflation would cause the Fed to tighten more aggressively. In contrast, Wall Street’s reaction to the inflation news suggests that it’s not that worried.\nThe second occasion on which Wall Street indicated it’s not particularly concerned about inflation came in the wake of the Dec. 3 jobs report, a week prior to the release of the latest inflation data. Even though the Labor Department reported that far fewer jobs were created in November than had been expected, stocks rose: over the 60 minutes following the Labor Department’s release, December S&P 500 futures added 0.5%.\nYou easily could have imagined the market reacting differently. It seems plausible that a softer economy would prompt the Fed to pursue more inflationary policies. If Wall Street was as anxious about higher inflation as the news media would have you believe, this jobs report would have sent stocks into a tailspin.\nThat it didn’t react that way suggests that the “market is less worried about long-term inflation,” Ravi Jagannathan, a finance professor at Northwestern University, told me in an email. That’s “good news.”\nI reached out to Professor Jagannathan because he co-authored a unique study many years ago on how to interpret the investment significance of the monthly jobs numbers. That study, entitled “The Stock Market’s Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks,” was published in the Journal of Finance in 2005. His co-authors were John Boyd, a finance professor at the University of Minnesota, and Jian Hu of Moody’s Investors Service.\nWall Street’s sanguine reaction to these early-December reports on inflation and jobs is echoed in the strikingly different inflation expectations of consumers, on the one hand, and professional forecasters on the other.\nAccording to the latest survey conducted by the University of Michigan, the median expected rise in the CPI over the next 12 months is 4.9%. In contrast, according to the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, the median expectation for 2022 is that the CPI will rise 2.4% — less than half of what consumers are expecting. The professional forecasters’ expectation is in the same ballpark as a quantitative model created by the Cleveland Federal Reserve, which is projecting that the CPI over the next 12 months will rise by 2.62%.\nMoreover, the Cleveland model is expecting inflation to be lower in 2023. Their model currently is projecting a two-year CPI increase of 2.05% annualized. To get a two-year rate that low, when the first of the two years is experiencing 2.62% inflation, the CPI in 2023 would have to rise by around 1.5%.\nYet another straw in the wind that inflation’s recent spike may be transitory is how the Cleveland model’s projection of 10-year inflation changed in the wake of the Dec. 10 inflation report. Believe it or not, it went down, however slightly, — to 1.75% from 1.76% annualized.\nThe bottom line? The inflation surprises of 2022 and 2023 are more likely to be on the downside than on the upside. Plan accordingly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3905,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690471469"}
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