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2021-12-16
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Is Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布前值得买入吗？</blockquote>
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Here is what invest","content":"<p>On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.</p><p><blockquote>12月16日，Rivian RIVN将公布上市以来的首次财报。以下是投资者在了解这家电动汽车制造商第三季度财报时应关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车巨头Rivian将于 12 月 16 日公布财报，这是其自 11 月初大肆宣传的 IPO 以来的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian 非凡的首次拉力赛使这家电动汽车制造商实现了比通用汽车和福特等传统美国汽车制造巨头更大的市值，尽管该公司尚未报告任何收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2020a08ae7df976ad58c68b103b53ec2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：Rivian 的 R1T 皮卡在 RIVN 股票 IPO 上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，Rivian在证明自己值得成为一家价值 1000 亿美元的公司方面面临着巨大的挑战。但在当今高度投机的市场中，基本面重要吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect for Q3 earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度收益预期</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian和其他电动汽车大公司虽然身处汽车行业，但都被列为科技股。这些公司将自己视为技术游戏规则的改变者--摆脱化石燃料的新交通范式的成员。</blockquote></p><p> A growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.</p><p><blockquote>以增长为中心的观点在一定程度上解释了为什么像特斯拉和Rivian这样的公司拥有更大的市值，尽管它们每年生产的汽车产量远少于福特和通用汽车等传统汽车品牌。市场正在对颠覆性技术进行定价，这些技术可能会彻底改变整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> But from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>但从纯粹基于基本面的角度来看，1000亿美元的市值现在几乎不可能证明是合理的，几年后甚至可能也不合理。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian的收入为零，其实际产能为每年15万辆。如果我们假设产量达到峰值产能，Rivian 目前的股权价值约为每辆电动汽车 675,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，考虑到福特 2020 年的产量，每辆生产汽车的价值为 20,470 美元。该公司在 2020 年还创造了 1270 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Since Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.</p><p><blockquote>由于Rivian的汽车尚未进入经销商处，财报日的情绪将主要（如果不是纯粹的话）是投机性的。可能的运动催化剂包括新订单的增加、新技术的推出或另一个重大合作伙伴关系的宣布。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使还没有销售，Rivian的股价也有很多理由反弹至创纪录的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Puts or calls? Or maybe both?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看跌期权还是评级？或者两者都有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Traders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>愿意加入Rivian “盈利游戏 ”的交易者可能会发现期权是最佳选择。鉴于围绕Rivian的猜测甚嚣尘上，这家电动汽车制造商的股价很可能在财报发布后大涨或暴跌。如果情况确实如此，多头跨式策略可能会带来可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> A long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.</p><p><blockquote>多头跨式策略涉及为同一标的股票购买看涨期权和看跌期权，且到期日相同。只要标的股票价格发生重大变动，多头跨式期权就会提前出现--变动的方向并不重要。这种策略通常用于高波动性收益押注的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资并不能保证巨额利润。Rivian财报后的股价走势可能远低于预期，这意味着评级和看跌期权都可能到期一文不值。此外，由于预期 RIVN 第三季度财报，大量买入期权可能会推高看跌期权和评级的价格，从而蚕食该交易的潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该在财报公布前买入Rivian吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街专家的说法，Rivian股票在财报公布前值得 “适度买入”--人们一致认为，尽管Rivian的市值很高，但其股票仍然被低估。该公司目前的平均目标价为 135 美元，这意味着上涨空间为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> The most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.</p><p><blockquote>最乐观的评级来自美国银行证券分析师约翰·墨菲，他认为该股未来有 46% 的上涨空间，预测目标价为 170 美元。Murphy 认为，Rivian在其他电动汽车制造商中脱颖而出，其 “业务战略极其全面、结构完善，此外还有扎实/创新的技术和有趣/有吸引力的产品，并得到了关键主要客户（亚马逊）的验证”。</blockquote></p><p> Baird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>Baird 的 George Gianarikas 认为，Rivian是唯一一家能够真正与特斯拉竞争的电动汽车制造商。这位分析师认为，Rivian在电动汽车市场的前景、稳健的资产负债表以及与亚马逊的合作是其股价在未来 12 个月内达到 150 美元的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是街上的每个人都看好RIVN。高盛分析师 Mark Delainey 持怀疑态度，对Rivian给予中性评级，目标价为 94 美元，这意味着下跌近 19%。尽管德莱尼认为Rivian的产品系列很有吸引力，而且公司的品牌影响力也在不断增长，但他认为，汽车行业的历史数据表明，新来者很难扩大规模--即使这些新来者是电动汽车制造商。该分析师还预计，从 2021 年第四季度到 2025 年底，现金消耗约为 200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布前值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Rivian Stock a Buy Ahead of its Q3 Earnings?<blockquote>Rivian股票在第三季度财报公布前值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.</p><p><blockquote>12月16日，Rivian RIVN将公布上市以来的首次财报。以下是投资者在了解这家电动汽车制造商第三季度财报时应关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> Electric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车巨头Rivian将于 12 月 16 日公布财报，这是其自 11 月初大肆宣传的 IPO 以来的首次财报。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian 非凡的首次拉力赛使这家电动汽车制造商实现了比通用汽车和福特等传统美国汽车制造巨头更大的市值，尽管该公司尚未报告任何收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2020a08ae7df976ad58c68b103b53ec2\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"900\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：Rivian 的 R1T 皮卡在 RIVN 股票 IPO 上。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，Rivian在证明自己值得成为一家价值 1000 亿美元的公司方面面临着巨大的挑战。但在当今高度投机的市场中，基本面重要吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to expect for Q3 earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度收益预期</b></blockquote></p><p> Rivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian和其他电动汽车大公司虽然身处汽车行业，但都被列为科技股。这些公司将自己视为技术游戏规则的改变者--摆脱化石燃料的新交通范式的成员。</blockquote></p><p> A growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.</p><p><blockquote>以增长为中心的观点在一定程度上解释了为什么像特斯拉和Rivian这样的公司拥有更大的市值，尽管它们每年生产的汽车产量远少于福特和通用汽车等传统汽车品牌。市场正在对颠覆性技术进行定价，这些技术可能会彻底改变整个汽车行业。</blockquote></p><p> But from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>但从纯粹基于基本面的角度来看，1000亿美元的市值现在几乎不可能证明是合理的，几年后甚至可能也不合理。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Rivian的收入为零，其实际产能为每年15万辆。如果我们假设产量达到峰值产能，Rivian 目前的股权价值约为每辆电动汽车 675,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Ford, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，考虑到福特 2020 年的产量，每辆生产汽车的价值为 20,470 美元。该公司在 2020 年还创造了 1270 亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> Since Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.</p><p><blockquote>由于Rivian的汽车尚未进入经销商处，财报日的情绪将主要（如果不是纯粹的话）是投机性的。可能的运动催化剂包括新订单的增加、新技术的推出或另一个重大合作伙伴关系的宣布。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.</p><p><blockquote>因此，即使还没有销售，Rivian的股价也有很多理由反弹至创纪录的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Puts or calls? Or maybe both?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看跌期权还是评级？或者两者都有？</b></blockquote></p><p> Traders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>愿意加入Rivian “盈利游戏 ”的交易者可能会发现期权是最佳选择。鉴于围绕Rivian的猜测甚嚣尘上，这家电动汽车制造商的股价很可能在财报发布后大涨或暴跌。如果情况确实如此，多头跨式策略可能会带来可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> A long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.</p><p><blockquote>多头跨式策略涉及为同一标的股票购买看涨期权和看跌期权，且到期日相同。只要标的股票价格发生重大变动，多头跨式期权就会提前出现--变动的方向并不重要。这种策略通常用于高波动性收益押注的背景下。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.</p><p><blockquote>当然，长期投资并不能保证巨额利润。Rivian财报后的股价走势可能远低于预期，这意味着评级和看跌期权都可能到期一文不值。此外，由于预期 RIVN 第三季度财报，大量买入期权可能会推高看跌期权和评级的价格，从而蚕食该交易的潜在利润。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该在财报公布前买入Rivian吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> According to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.</p><p><blockquote>根据华尔街专家的说法，Rivian股票在财报公布前值得 “适度买入”--人们一致认为，尽管Rivian的市值很高，但其股票仍然被低估。该公司目前的平均目标价为 135 美元，这意味着上涨空间为 16%。</blockquote></p><p> The most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.</p><p><blockquote>最乐观的评级来自美国银行证券分析师约翰·墨菲，他认为该股未来有 46% 的上涨空间，预测目标价为 170 美元。Murphy 认为，Rivian在其他电动汽车制造商中脱颖而出，其 “业务战略极其全面、结构完善，此外还有扎实/创新的技术和有趣/有吸引力的产品，并得到了关键主要客户（亚马逊）的验证”。</blockquote></p><p> Baird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>Baird 的 George Gianarikas 认为，Rivian是唯一一家能够真正与特斯拉竞争的电动汽车制造商。这位分析师认为，Rivian在电动汽车市场的前景、稳健的资产负债表以及与亚马逊的合作是其股价在未来 12 个月内达到 150 美元的催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是街上的每个人都看好RIVN。高盛分析师 Mark Delainey 持怀疑态度，对Rivian给予中性评级，目标价为 94 美元，这意味着下跌近 19%。尽管德莱尼认为Rivian的产品系列很有吸引力，而且公司的品牌影响力也在不断增长，但他认为，汽车行业的历史数据表明，新来者很难扩大规模--即使这些新来者是电动汽车制造商。该分析师还预计，从 2021 年第四季度到 2025 年底，现金消耗约为 200 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/is-rivian-stock-a-buy-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/memestocks/reddit-trends/is-rivian-stock-a-buy-ahead-of-its-q3-earnings","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143987480","content_text":"On December 16, Rivian RIVN will announce its first earnings since going public. Here is what investors should look for heading into this EV maker’s third-quarter earnings.\nElectric vehicle giant Rivian will report its earnings on December 16 for the first time since its massively hyped IPO in early November.\nRivian's phenomenal debut rally has led the EV maker to achieve a larger market capitalization than traditional American automaker giants such as General Motors and Ford, even though the company hasn't reported any revenue yet.\nFigure 1: Rivian's R1T pickup truck on RIVN stock IPO.\nFrom a fundamentals perspective, Rivian has a big challenge ahead in proving that it deserves to be valued as a $100 billion company. But do fundamentals matter much in today’s highly speculative market?\nWhat to expect for Q3 earnings\nRivian and other big EV names, even though they’re in the automotive industry, are listed as technology stocks. These companies see themselves as technological game-changers – members of a new transportation paradigm that’s free from fossil fuels.\nA growth-centric viewpoint goes partway to explaining why companies like Tesla and Rivian, even though they make far fewer vehicles per year than traditional automotive names like Ford and General Motors, have larger market capitalizations. The market is pricing in disruptive technologies that could, potentially, turn the entire automotive industry on its head.\nBut from a purely fundamentals-based perspective, a $100 billion market cap is almost impossible to justify right now, and it may not even be justified several years down the road.\nRivian has generated zero revenue so far and its actual production capacity is 150,000 units annually. If we assume production reaches peak capacity, Rivian's equity would currently be valued at about $675,000 per electric vehicle produced.\nFord, by comparison, is valued at $20,470 per vehicle produced, considering its 2020 production output. The company also generated $127 billion in revenue during 2020.\nSince Rivian’s vehicles aren’t rolling into dealerships yet, sentiment on earnings day will be primarily (if not purely) speculative. Possible catalysts for movement including rising new orders, the launching of new technologies, or the announcement of another major partnership.\nTherefore, even without sales yet, there are plenty of reasons Rivian’s stock could rally to record gains.\nPuts or calls? Or maybe both?\nTraders willing to join in on Rivian’s “earnings play” may find options to be the best move. Given the high speculation surrounding Rivian, it’s likely that this EV makers’ stock will either jump or plummet post-earnings. A long straddle strategy could see solid gains if this indeed turns out to be the case.\nA long straddle strategy involves buying both a call and a put option for the same underlying stock and for the same expiry date. Long straddles will come out ahead as long as there’s a significant move in the price of the underlying stock – the direction of the move doesn’t matter. Such strategies are often used in the context of high-volatility earnings bets.\nOf course, a long straddle doesn’t guarantee outrageous profits. Rivian’s post-earnings share price could move far less than anticipated, meaning that the calls and puts could all expire worthless. Also, heavy options buying in anticipation of RIVN’s Q3 earnings could drive up the price of both puts and calls, eating away at potential profit from the trade.\nShould investors buy Rivian ahead of earnings?\nAccording to Wall Street experts, Rivian stock is a “moderate buy” ahead of earnings — the consensus suggests that, despite its sky-high market cap, Rivian stock is still undervalued. The current average price target for the company is $135, which implies a 16% upside.\nThe most bullish rating comes from Bank of America Securities analyst John Murphy, who sees 46% upside ahead for the stock,forecasting a $170 price target. Murphy sees Rivian standing out among other electric vehicle manufacturers with its “extremely comprehensive and well-constructed business strategy, in addition to solid/innovative technology and interesting/attractive product, validated by a key anchor customer (Amazon.com),”.\nBaird’s George Gianarikas thinks Rivian is the only EV maker that can truly compete with Tesla. The analyst sees Rivian’s promising approach to the EV market, its robust balance sheet, and its partnership with Amazon as being catalysts for its share price reaching $150 in the next twelve months.\nBut not everyone on the Street is bullish on RIVN. Goldman Sach sanalyst Mark Delainey is skeptical, with a neutral rating on Rivian and a $94 price target, implying a nearly 19% downside. Even though he finds Rivian’s product set attractive and sees the company’s brand presence as growing, Delainey believes that historical automotive industry data show how hard it is for newcomers to scale – even if those newcomers are EV manufacturers. The analyst also projects about $20 billion of cash burn from Q4 of 2021 through the end of 2025.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3540,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/690937651"}
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