copycat
2021-12-22
Sleeping giant awaken?
Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>
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It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”是一个广为人知的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据动量选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当2021年的巨大增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票确实值得小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票的多个挂钩被击倒，远远超出了其基本面的合理性。其中包括大数据分析巨头Palantir(PLTR)，尽管其业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大的调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir也许是唯一一家备受瞩目的软件IPO，自去年10月上市以来，Palantir的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给Palantir的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹并在2月中旬达到接近40美元的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常参差不齐和波动的方式进行交易，其中自11月以来与其他科技成长股一起下跌了约30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的Palantir股票，这家公司是我所处的罕见例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着从2月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir的交易价格并没有像之前那样高得离谱）。我仍然认为Palantir是一家正在崛起的科技巨头，拥有强大的软件平台，可广泛适用于各行业、公共和私营部门。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，但在国外也有未经考验的扩张机会，那里的大数据和机器学习技术创新尚未完全成熟。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在这里做多，并在年底前以新的较低价格增持Palantir：在我看来，Palantir完全有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了Palantir的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入了解更详细的细节和基本面之前，有必要说明Palantir从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧跟一些大型转型交易，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值6000万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir赢了</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在Palantir历史上在美国武装部队中享有的优势的基础上，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值8700万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。Palantir和win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大型交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所增长，我们将在本文中进一步详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重新审视Palantir的看涨论点</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>随着过去两个月Palantir股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因的回顾：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，几乎可以以无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只提供一个或有限组用例服务的软件公司。数据和可以从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事物中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对于公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为20亿美元，Palantir的收入仍继续实现30-40%的同比增长，其长期前景评级是该公司能够维持超过30%的同比增长率。至少到2025年。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了Palantir产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir正在通过多种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其广阔市场机会和更多区域覆盖需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，这些供应商可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销人员无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>.Palantir因作为大型联邦政府承包商而闻名，但其产品对于越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，然后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它在财富100强公司中的势头持续增长，客户数量继续以令人印象深刻的速度增长。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从GAAP的角度来看尚未盈利，但Palantir继续超出内部对自由现金流的预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，这些公司继续需要筹集资金来弥补损失）。</li></ul><b>估值并不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说Palantir最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平，但考虑到该公司品牌的质量，加上其大规模高速增长同时提高盈利能力和利润率的一贯组合，我认为其目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>按目前接近18美元的股价计算，Palantir的市值为359.9亿美元。在扣除其账面上24.8亿美元的现金后（看好Palantir的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计Palantir下一财年（2022财年）的收入将达到19.8亿美元，同比增长30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在2022年全年实现30%以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司通常远远提前兑现承诺），我想说这种前景有点暗淡。但尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir的交易价格为<b>EV/22财年收入的16.9倍。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，我们很难做到如此便宜的看涨期权，而且面对利率上升，Palantir之前20多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为18美元左右的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩展示了巨大的基本面吸引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir的年底调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3.Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir本季度收入同比强劲增长35%至3.921亿美元，比华尔街预期的3.866亿美元（同比增长33%）高出两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度49%的同比增长相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行期间相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是Palantir在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告称，第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，尽管竞争更加激烈，但仍较前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4.Palantir商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了Palantir历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司在第三季度净增加了34个新客户，使该季度末客户总数达到203个，这使得该公司的客户群在一个季度内大幅增长了20%。与去年同期相比，该公司的商业客户数量也增加了46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5.Palantir客户补充道</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还请记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司都坚持的“登陆并扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir的<b>比林斯</b>同比增长56%至3.47亿美元。Palantir的账单增长率超过其收入增长率，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现其在未来几年维持30%以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir的客户增长以及积极的贡献率促使该公司大幅提高调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到1.19亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为现金的30%<b>燃烧</b>去年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6.Palantir FCF趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>基于公司全年现金流的强劲势头，Palantir管理层还将2021财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至4亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为3亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者非常规避风险的市场心态，即Palantir不仅增长强劲，而且还牢记盈利能力平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir还有很长的成功之路。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领导地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，而且尽管预计年收入将达到约20亿美元，但Palantir仍能继续以30%以上的速度增长。明年的运行率进一步证实了Palantir是软件领域一个独特且罕见的故事。利用自11月以来约30%的回调，适时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.</li> <li>In particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.</li> <li>Still, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.</li> <li>Cash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27ed9cd275848c088c2f7966c6a9b0c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir的基本业务持续蓬勃发展，但其股价自11月初以来已下跌30%。</li><li>特别是，Palantir在实现政府合同多元化方面取得了成功，第三季度整体商业收入增长加速，在美国增长了一倍多。</li><li>尽管如此，政府业务并没有懈怠，该公司最近赢得了空军、卫生与公众服务部以及美国国立卫生研究院的合同。</li><li>现金流的趋势也提前于计划，促使该公司将全年现金流指引提高了1亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”是一个广为人知的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据动量选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当2021年的巨大增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票确实值得小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票的多个挂钩被击倒，远远超出了其基本面的合理性。其中包括大数据分析巨头Palantir(PLTR)，尽管其业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大的调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir也许是唯一一家备受瞩目的软件IPO，自去年10月上市以来，Palantir的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给Palantir的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹并在2月中旬达到接近40美元的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常参差不齐和波动的方式进行交易，其中自11月以来与其他科技成长股一起下跌了约30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的Palantir股票，这家公司是我所处的罕见例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着从2月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir的交易价格并没有像之前那样高得离谱）。我仍然认为Palantir是一家正在崛起的科技巨头，拥有强大的软件平台，可广泛适用于各行业、公共和私营部门。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，但在国外也有未经考验的扩张机会，那里的大数据和机器学习技术创新尚未完全成熟。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在这里做多，并在年底前以新的较低价格增持Palantir：在我看来，Palantir完全有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了Palantir的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入了解更详细的细节和基本面之前，有必要说明Palantir从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧跟一些大型转型交易，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值6000万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir赢了</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，在Palantir历史上在美国武装部队中享有的优势的基础上，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值8700万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。Palantir和win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大型交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所增长，我们将在本文中进一步详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>重新审视Palantir的看涨论点</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>随着过去两个月Palantir股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是该公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因的回顾：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，几乎可以以无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只提供一个或有限组用例服务的软件公司。数据和可以从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事物中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对于公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为20亿美元，Palantir的收入仍继续实现30-40%的同比增长，其长期前景评级是该公司能够维持超过30%的同比增长率。至少到2025年。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了Palantir产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir正在通过多种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其广阔市场机会和更多区域覆盖需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，这些供应商可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销人员无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>.Palantir因作为大型联邦政府承包商而闻名，但其产品对于越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，然后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它在财富100强公司中的势头持续增长，客户数量继续以令人印象深刻的速度增长。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从GAAP的角度来看尚未盈利，但Palantir继续超出内部对自由现金流的预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，这些公司继续需要筹集资金来弥补损失）。</li></ul><b>估值并不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说Palantir最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平，但考虑到该公司品牌的质量，加上其大规模高速增长同时提高盈利能力和利润率的一贯组合，我认为其目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>按目前接近18美元的股价计算，Palantir的市值为359.9亿美元。在扣除其账面上24.8亿美元的现金后（看好Palantir的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计Palantir下一财年（2022财年）的收入将达到19.8亿美元，同比增长30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在2022年全年实现30%以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司通常远远提前兑现承诺），我想说这种前景有点暗淡。但尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir的交易价格为<b>EV/22财年收入的16.9倍。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>再说一次，我们很难做到如此便宜的看涨期权，而且面对利率上升，Palantir之前20多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为18美元左右的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩展示了巨大的基本面吸引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir的年底调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3.Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir本季度收入同比强劲增长35%至3.921亿美元，比华尔街预期的3.866亿美元（同比增长33%）高出两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度49%的同比增长相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行期间相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是Palantir在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告称，第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，尽管竞争更加激烈，但仍较前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4.Palantir商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了Palantir历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司在第三季度净增加了34个新客户，使该季度末客户总数达到203个，这使得该公司的客户群在一个季度内大幅增长了20%。与去年同期相比，该公司的商业客户数量也增加了46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5.Palantir客户补充道</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还请记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司都坚持的“登陆并扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir的<b>比林斯</b>同比增长56%至3.47亿美元。Palantir的账单增长率超过其收入增长率，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现其在未来几年维持30%以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir的客户增长以及积极的贡献率促使该公司大幅提高调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到1.19亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为现金的30%<b>燃烧</b>去年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6.Palantir FCF趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>基于公司全年现金流的强劲势头，Palantir管理层还将2021财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至4亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为3亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者非常规避风险的市场心态，即Palantir不仅增长强劲，而且还牢记盈利能力平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关键要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir还有很长的成功之路。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领导地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，而且尽管预计年收入将达到约20亿美元，但Palantir仍能继续以30%以上的速度增长。明年的运行率进一步证实了Palantir是软件领域一个独特且罕见的故事。利用自11月以来约30%的回调，适时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184116002","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.\nIn particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.\nStill, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.\nCash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nThe mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.\nSo when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.\nPerhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.\nData by YCharts\nThroughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm very bullish on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.\nStay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.\nRecent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is\nBefore we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:\nFigure 1. Palantir NIH win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:\nFigure 2. Palantir VA win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.\nThe bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited\nWith the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.\nHere's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:\n\nBig data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.\nGrowth at scale.Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).\nStepping up go-to-market momentum.Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.\nOne foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.\nFree cash flow.Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).\n\nValuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past\nI wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.\nAt current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting enterprise value is $33.51 billion.\nFor next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at 16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.\nAgain, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.\nQ3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment\nWe additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:\nFigure 3. Palantir Q3 results\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nPalantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.\nThe major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:\nFigure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nWe note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing 103% y/y pace.\nNote as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.\nFigure 5. Palantir customer adds\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nRecall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.\nEqually worth noting is that Palantir's billings expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.\nLastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash burn of -$53 million in the prior-year period.\nFigure 6. Palantir FCF trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nBuilding on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.\nKey takeaways\nIn my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3522,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":20,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691370507"}
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