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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":691476640,"tweetId":"691476640","gmtCreate":1640234449973,"gmtModify":1640234450193,"author":{"id":3586512925725941,"idStr":"3586512925725941","authorId":3586512925725941,"authorIdStr":"3586512925725941","name":"SALLY123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3645082e74bb8034e0163391e44f18e8","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":22,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>ok</body></html>","text":"ok","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691476640","repostId":1164868978,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164868978","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229309,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1164868978?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164868978","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"While I'm generally skeptical of stock market indicators, investors might want to pay attention to this one.","content":"Key Points<blockquote>要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li> <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li> <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.<blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我，我认为市场接下来会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.<blockquote>这仍然不能阻止人们试图预测事情下一步会走向何方。作为投资者，我们希望看起来我们知道什么标普500的性能将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.<blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以准确地预测未来的回报呢？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> Not a bad&nbsp;indicator<blockquote>不错的指标</blockquote> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.<blockquote>我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE），可以时不时地提供未来十年可能的预期回报的高级视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均净利润，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.<blockquote>如果这听起来像一口，不要担心。该数据点的目的是平滑收益的任何波动。此前的最高水平是在 1929 年和 2000 年，而这些时间正好发生在熊市之前。正如您在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.<blockquote>YCHARTS 提供的标普500·席勒开普比率数据。</blockquote> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.<blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的顾问视角，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年令人难以置信的90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们所能得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>标普500历来平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前 38 的席勒市盈率，市场在 2022 年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.<blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒疫情导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去 10 年 CAPE 比率有所上升，但股市仍在继续攀升。归功于美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote> What should&nbsp;investors do?<blockquote>投资者该怎么办？</blockquote> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.<blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场极其不可预测，但从长远来看，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?<blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候投入资金，你真的别无选择，只能投资股市。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报率不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.<blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少 25 只股票），这些投资组合由具有竞争优势的企业组成，这些企业已被证明具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。类似的名字家得宝（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和星巴克（纳斯达克股票代码：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.<blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，由于其庞大的规模，能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场的强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.<blockquote>这家巨型咖啡馆连锁店拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和优质地位支撑，引起了消费者的强烈共鸣。星巴克管理层估计，到 2030 年，全球将有多达 55,000 家门店，比现在的数字高出 63%。</blockquote> Focus on what really matters<blockquote>专注于真正重要的事情</blockquote> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.<blockquote>无论席勒市盈率怎么说，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。高度关注你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.<blockquote>试图根据你认为它是便宜还是昂贵来判断市场时机并不是你想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为美元成本平均）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.<blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场上仍然有很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该用我们的钱做什么。虽然席勒市盈率是你可以添加到投资武器库中的一个工具，但请忽略噪音，着眼于长远。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Does This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDoes This Wildly Accurate S&P 500 Ratio Signal Doom for Investors in 2022?<blockquote>这种极其准确的标普500比率是否预示着投资者在 2022 年的厄运？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMotley Fool2021-12-23 11:15\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nKey Points<blockquote>要点</blockquote> <ul> <li>Predicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.</li> <li>The Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.</li> <li>But investors would still do well to focus on the long term.</li> </ul> If someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.<blockquote><ul><li>预测股市表现几乎是一项不可能完成的任务。</li><li>席勒市盈率可能是最准确的指标。</li><li>但投资者最好还是着眼于长期。</li></ul>如果有人问我，我认为市场接下来会做什么，我通常会回答说我不知道。我相信大多数投资者采用这种理念是明智的。</blockquote> This still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.<blockquote>这仍然不能阻止人们试图预测事情下一步会走向何方。作为投资者，我们希望看起来我们知道什么标普500的性能将在未来。然后我们可以相应地定位我们的投资组合。</blockquote> But is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.<blockquote>但是，有没有一个数据点可以准确地预测未来的回报呢？请继续阅读，找出答案。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2869216c7d0cbc4c220f60d370cc7938\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.<blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote> Not a bad&nbsp;indicator<blockquote>不错的指标</blockquote> Every once in a while, I think the Shiller&nbsp;price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This&nbsp;metric is the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.<blockquote>我认为席勒市盈率（P/E），也称为周期调整市盈率（CAPE），可以时不时地提供未来十年可能的预期回报的高级视图。该指标是标普500的市盈率使用过去 10 年的平均净利润，经通货膨胀调整。</blockquote> If that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.<blockquote>如果这听起来像一口，不要担心。该数据点的目的是平滑收益的任何波动。此前的最高水平是在 1929 年和 2000 年，而这些时间正好发生在熊市之前。正如您在下面看到的，我们目前处于历史第二高的水平。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd7fb9cd4886d330700f25d58806f67a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">S&amp;P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.<blockquote>YCHARTS 提供的标普500·席勒开普比率数据。</blockquote> According to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.<blockquote>根据为财务顾问提供新闻和评论的顾问视角，CAPE比率解释了1995年至2020年令人难以置信的90%的回报变化。换句话说，对于完全随机的资产类别，这是我们所能得到的最准确的指标。</blockquote> The S&amp;P 500 has historically&nbsp;returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.<blockquote>标普500历来平均每年回报率为10%。但根据目前 38 的席勒市盈率，市场在 2022 年及以后的回报可能会令人失望。</blockquote> However, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.<blockquote>不过，我认为投资者现在还不应该恐慌。2008年和2009年的大衰退以及冠状病毒疫情导致政府采取了前所未有的刺激措施来支持经济增长。尽管过去 10 年 CAPE 比率有所上升，但股市仍在继续攀升。归功于美联储可能扭曲了席勒市盈率和未来回报之间的相关性。</blockquote> What should&nbsp;investors do?<blockquote>投资者该怎么办？</blockquote> I firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.<blockquote>我坚信，你应该只把未来五年不需要的钱投入股市。这是因为在短期内，市场极其不可预测，但从长远来看，正回报的概率会急剧增加。</blockquote> With that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?<blockquote>考虑到这一点，如果你想在利率接近于零的时候投入资金，你真的别无选择，只能投资股市。尽管席勒市盈率可能预示着未来十年的回报率不佳，但你还会把钱放在哪里呢？</blockquote> I believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best&nbsp;strategy&nbsp;you can pursue. Names like&nbsp;Home Depot&nbsp;(NYSE:HD)&nbsp;and&nbsp;Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.<blockquote>我相信，拥有一个多元化的投资组合（至少 25 只股票），这些投资组合由具有竞争优势的企业组成，这些企业已被证明具有良好的业绩记录和稳健的增长前景，是您可以追求的最佳策略。类似的名字家得宝（纽约证券交易所代码：HD）和星巴克（纳斯达克股票代码：SBUX）立即浮现在脑海中。</blockquote> The&nbsp;home-improvement giant&nbsp;has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.<blockquote>这家家装巨头在过去10年中利润每年增长16%，由于其庞大的规模，能够超越竞争对手，并且由于美国房地产市场的强劲，仍然拥有巨大的扩张机会。</blockquote> The giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a&nbsp;whopping 55,000&nbsp;locations worldwide, 63%&nbsp;higher&nbsp;than today's count.<blockquote>这家巨型咖啡馆连锁店拥有强大的品牌，由一流的忠诚度计划和优质地位支撑，引起了消费者的强烈共鸣。星巴克管理层估计，到 2030 年，全球将有多达 55,000 家门店，比现在的数字高出 63%。</blockquote> Focus on what really matters<blockquote>专注于真正重要的事情</blockquote> No matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.<blockquote>无论席勒市盈率怎么说，我认为家得宝和星巴克将继续表现良好，并成为任何人投资组合的坚实补充。这是投资者必须重点关注的。高度关注你所拥有的公司的质量，随着时间的推移，你肯定会做得很好。</blockquote> Trying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as&nbsp;dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.<blockquote>试图根据你认为它是便宜还是昂贵来判断市场时机并不是你想玩的游戏。定期增加储蓄（称为美元成本平均）可以减少您可能存在的任何偏见，并允许您改善购买股票的成本基础。</blockquote> We're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.<blockquote>我们生活在一个有趣的时代。今天的市场上仍然有很多不确定性，不乏所谓的专家告诉我们应该用我们的钱做什么。虽然席勒市盈率是你可以添加到投资武器库中的一个工具，但请忽略噪音，着眼于长远。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/\">Motley Fool</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HD":"家得宝",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/22/wildly-accurate-sp-500-ratio-signal-doom-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164868978","content_text":"Key Points\n\nPredicting stock market performance is a near-impossible task.\nThe Shiller P/E ratio may be as accurate an indicator as there is.\nBut investors would still do well to focus on the long term.\n\nIf someone ever asks me what I think the market is going to do next, I usually reply by saying I have no idea. I believe most investors would be wise to adopt this philosophy.\nThis still doesn't prevent people from trying to forecast where things will go next. As investors, we want to appear like we know what the S&P 500's performance will be in the future. Then we can position our portfolios accordingly.\nBut is there a data point out there that can signal with any level of accuracy what future returns will be? Read on to find out.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nNot a bad indicator\nEvery once in a while, I think the Shiller price-to-earnings(P/E) ratio, otherwise known as the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio, can provide a high-level view as to what prospective returns might be over the next decade.This metric is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 using the average net income of the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation.\nIf that sounds like a mouthful, don't worry. The objective of this data point is to smooth out any fluctuations in earnings. The highest it has ever been previously was in 1929 and 2000, and these times directly preceded bear markets. As you can see below, we are currently at the second highest level in history.\nS&P 500 SHILLER CAPE RATIO DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAccording to Advisor Perspectives, which provides news and commentary for financial advisors, the CAPE ratio explained an incredible 90% of the variation in returns from 1995 to 2020. In other words, for an asset class that's completely random, this is as accurate an indicator as we're going to get.\nThe S&P 500 has historically returned an average of 10% per year. But based on today's Shiller P/E ratio of 38, the market could be in for disappointing returns in 2022 and beyond.\nHowever, I don't think investors should panic just yet. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and the coronavirus pandemic led to unprecedented amounts of government stimulus to support economic growth. Even with an elevated CAPE ratio over the past 10 years, the stock market just kept climbing higher. Credit the Federal Reserve for perhaps distorting the correlation between the Shiller P/E ratio and future returns.\nWhat should investors do?\nI firmly believe that you should only invest money in the stock market that you don't need for the next five years. This is because in the near term, the market is extremely unpredictable, but over longer time horizons, the probability of a positive return increases dramatically.\nWith that in mind, if you're looking to put capital to work right now when interest rates are near zero, you really don't have any other option than to invest in the stock market. Although the Shiller P/E ratio might signal a poor decade of returns ahead, where else would you park your money?\nI believe that owning a well-diversified portfolio (at least 25 stocks) of competitively advantaged businesses that have proven track records and solid growth prospects is the best strategy you can pursue. Names like Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Starbucks(NASDAQ:SBUX)immediately come to mind.\nThe home-improvement giant has grown profits 16% annually over the past 10 years, is able to outshine competitors thanks to its massive scale, and still has huge expansion opportunities thanks to a robust U.S. housing market.\nThe giant coffeehouse chain possesses a powerful brand, supported by a top-notch loyalty program and premium status that resonates strongly with consumers. Starbucks' management estimates that by 2030, there'll be a whopping 55,000 locations worldwide, 63% higher than today's count.\nFocus on what really matters\nNo matter what the Shiller P/E ratio says, I think Home Depot and Starbucks will continue to do well and be solid additions to anyone's portfolio. This is what investors must focus on. Concentrate intensely on the quality of the companies you own, and you'll surely do well over time.\nTrying to time the market based on whether you think it's cheap or expensive is not a game you want to play. Adding savings at regular intervals -- known as dollar-cost averaging-- reduces any biases you may have andallows you to improve your cost basis on stocks you buy.\nWe're living in interesting times. There's still lots of uncertainty in the market today with no shortage of so-called experts telling us what we should do with our money. While the Shiller P/E ratio is a tool you can add to your investing arsenal, ignore the noise and keep your eyes on the long term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HD":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5048,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691476640"}