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2021-12-23

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Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":691709119,"tweetId":"691709119","gmtCreate":1640235995327,"gmtModify":1640235995623,"author":{"id":3560153673056412,"idStr":"3560153673056412","authorId":3560153673056412,"authorIdStr":"3560153673056412","name":"JPHC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983066cca30c768ccae9fa351386fdfe","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":32,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>HODL</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>HODL</body></html>","text":"HODL","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691709119","repostId":1164467804,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Apple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.<blockquote>苹果公司。(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:<blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”<blockquote><ul><li>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”<blockquote><li>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</li></blockquote></li> <li>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”<blockquote><li>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.<blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart<blockquote>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</blockquote> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.<blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对元平台（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Which begs the question:<blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote> Why?<blockquote>为什么？</blockquote> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.<blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——任天堂（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.<blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.<blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote> Competitive Landscape<blockquote>竞争格局</blockquote> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.<blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:<blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Huawei- smartphones.<blockquote><li>华为-智能手机。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Alphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.<blockquote><li>Alphabet智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Microsoft(MSFT) - laptops.<blockquote><li>微软（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Dell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.<blockquote><li>戴尔（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Adobe(ADBE) - creative software.<blockquote><li>土坯（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></li> <li>And many more.<blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.<blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:<blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.<blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.<blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.<blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.<blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.<blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote> The M1 Chip and Apple Services<blockquote>M1芯片和苹果服务</blockquote> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:<blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote> The M1 Chip and Apple Services.<blockquote>M1芯片和苹果服务。</blockquote> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:<blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.<blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.<blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).<blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></li> <li>5nm process.<blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></li> <li>16 billion transistors.<blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.<blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.<blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.<blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务及估值</blockquote> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.<blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:<blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.<blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.<blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.<blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.<blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.<blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.<blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.<blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.<blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.<blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.<blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:<blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.<blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote> Risks and Challenges<blockquote>风险与挑战</blockquote> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:<blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Supply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.<blockquote><ul><li>供应链问题。世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Scale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.<blockquote><li>比例。从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Disruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.<blockquote><li>中断。苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，黑莓（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.<blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-12-23 11:40\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li> <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li> <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News<blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</blockquote> Apple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.<blockquote>苹果公司。(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:<blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”<blockquote><ul><li>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”<blockquote><li>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</li></blockquote></li> <li>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”<blockquote><li>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.<blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart<blockquote>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</blockquote> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.<blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对元平台（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> Which begs the question:<blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote> Why?<blockquote>为什么？</blockquote> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.<blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——任天堂（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.<blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.<blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote> Competitive Landscape<blockquote>竞争格局</blockquote> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.<blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:<blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Samsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.<blockquote><ul><li>三星（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Huawei- smartphones.<blockquote><li>华为-智能手机。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Alphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.<blockquote><li>Alphabet智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Microsoft(MSFT) - laptops.<blockquote><li>微软（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Dell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.<blockquote><li>戴尔（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Adobe(ADBE) - creative software.<blockquote><li>土坯（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></li> <li>And many more.<blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.<blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:<blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.<blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.<blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.<blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Tablets: 35% globally.<blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.<blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote> The M1 Chip and Apple Services<blockquote>M1芯片和苹果服务</blockquote> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:<blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote> The M1 Chip and Apple Services.<blockquote>M1芯片和苹果服务。</blockquote> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:<blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote> <ul> <li>An 8-core CPU.<blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>A 7-core GPU.<blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></li> <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).<blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></li> <li>5nm process.<blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></li> <li>16 billion transistors.<blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></li> <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.<blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.<blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.<blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote> Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务及估值</blockquote> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.<blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:<blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote> <ul> <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.<blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.<blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.<blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.<blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.<blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:<blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Revenue: 11%.<blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Operating income: 12.7%.<blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Net income: 15.7%.<blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.<blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.<blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:<blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.<blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote> Risks and Challenges<blockquote>风险与挑战</blockquote> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:<blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote> <ul> <li>Supply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.<blockquote><ul><li>供应链问题。世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></li> <li>Scale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.<blockquote><li>比例。从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></li> <li>Disruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.<blockquote><li>中断。苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，黑莓（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.<blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691709119"}