Minz98
2021-12-22
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Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote>
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However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，网飞（NFLX）在电影/节目的流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏中却没有。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达（NVDA）非常符合要求。其专业计算能力领域已经变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这正在推动加速增长，并在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值购买它是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资它方面也做得非常好。它已成为我投资生涯中最大的股票回报之一。而且，正如我稍后会谈到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立 300 美元以上的头寸仍然存在更多风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持更高的水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在两个方面拥有强大的业务实力</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达超出预期并提高指引在过去几个季度并不是什么新鲜事。不过，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长 5.2% 的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将继续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i> Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消 CMP 的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权 关键在于数据中心的增长在过去几个季度超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果数据中心在本季度（FQ4 '22）自 FQ2 '21 以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，Nvidia 第 3 季度收入趋势数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如二级轴上的季度环比线所示，数据中心自 2021 年第四季度以来加速增长，而游戏增长自 2022 年第一季度以来放缓。21年第二季度的大幅增长与Mellanox的收购有关，因为我概述的增长始于21年第四季度，所以它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是Q/Q而不是Y/Y。在 Q3 '21 和 Q1 '22 之间名义连续增长了三个季度之后，情况尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心不会在2022年第四季度以24%或更多的速度环比增长，但我确实预计它的增长速度会超过游戏。根据我们从博通 (AVGO) 和 Marvell (MRVL) 等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对这两个部门来说都是一个减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间来弥补我在计算 it 和公司王冠游戏之间的 3500 万美元差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，注意哪个部门的环比增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成是推动毛利率趋势的因素（以（DC）/（DC+游戏）计算），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一正是投资者所希望的，因为它可以提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与一个更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，早在 2019 年宣布收购 Mellanox 之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现出色并将继续如此的重要原因。其两个主要市场都有实力保证，而且数据中心和 PC 对 GPU 的需求不断增长、强劲。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且具有通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的最大潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业与股票的交汇处</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——它是在数据中心的持续增长和利润中定价的。然而，什么时候估值过于让市场承受不了呢？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长 50%。因此，这意味着市场预计未来一年左右的普遍预期将大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下图所示的 2023 年和 2024 年“高”预期，才能证明估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Nvidia 来说，这并非不可能，Nvidia 在过去两年中不断提高门槛，但 2024 财年（从 2023 年 2 月开始，一年多后）的收入不太可能达到 49.50B 美元如果没有 ARM (ARMH) 收购正在进行中。在这一点上，它不太可能这样做，因为所有主要国家的反对声音越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，Nvidia 的业务非常强大，并且有相当惊人的潜力将技术推向前所未有的更远，并充分利用它。对于市盈率为 30 或以上的股票，我的问题是，它能否带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明其表现甚至可以超过其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过 10 亿美元（在指引上调和随后的共识上调之间），才能达到所需的 2024 年高额数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在 11 月 24 日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股 326 美元。该股目前的交易价格约为 300 美元，下跌了 8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意添加到头寸中的风险。过去几周，多只股票成为抛售目标，英伟达是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我还能在哪里补充呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>20 或更低的混合远期市盈率将显着降低风险，同时仍能让 Nvidia 获得值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为 210 美元。我预计该股不会达到那个水平，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我认为 2023 财年的收入预期为 20，目前为 31.45B 美元。这给了我们248美元的目标，可以增加。此外，在共识估计的基础上加上小幅上涨，以解释稳定的节拍和加薪，得出$33.5B的收入估计（仍低于$34.40B的最高估计），相当于$264的股价，下跌12%周三的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性态度——也许它将继续走高，并且未来几个月的预期将会提高，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此；我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望投机性地增加下跌。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果有机会，我期待着增加，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Data Center Will Dominate, But I'll Wait At These Prices<blockquote>英伟达：数据中心将占据主导地位，但我会等待这些价格</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Nvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.</li> <li>Data Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.</li> <li>But the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.</li> <li>I'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16229a92c1ab97cde25cb10d9bf33c38\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>英伟达的业务和技术是首屈一指的，该公司已经证明它可以创造和领导多个市场。</li><li>数据中心将在收入方面占据主导地位，也是投资者应该想要的；该部门推动毛利率。</li><li>但该股的定价正处于漫长的增长轨道上，并且不会在证明估值合理性所需的时间内实现这一目标。</li><li>我满足于持有这里，但会在264美元及以下加价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>米哈伊尔·科诺普列夫/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.</p><p><blockquote>很难找到一家公司能够在多个市场中主导一个领域。然而，你肯定可以找到在一个市场中主导一个领域的公司。例如，网飞（NFLX）在电影/节目的流媒体领域占据主导地位，但在体育直播或视频游戏中却没有。很难找到一家公司在计算能力等一个领域占据主导地位，同时在游戏、数据中心和专业渲染等不同市场占据主导地位。但是，英伟达（NVDA）非常符合要求。其专业计算能力领域已经变得无与伦比，通过创造新技术和用例以惊人的速度增长收入。随着其数据中心部门准备接管公司，这正在推动加速增长，并在市场上获得了丰厚的回报。但即便如此，我也无法证明以如此高的估值购买它是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Don't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>不要误会我的意思，我不仅是一个狂热的英伟达多头——有记录证明了这一点——而且在投资它方面也做得非常好。它已成为我投资生涯中最大的股票回报之一。而且，正如我稍后会谈到的，英伟达的主导地位不会很快减弱。但是，即便如此，建立 300 美元以上的头寸仍然存在更多风险，因为增长率必须在更长时间内保持更高的水平才能与估值相匹配。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Great Business Strength On Two Fronts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在两个方面拥有强大的业务实力</b></blockquote></p><p> Nvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达超出预期并提高指引在过去几个季度并不是什么新鲜事。不过，有趣的是，它有能力在供应紧张时期和季节性疲软的季度继续发展游戏部门。这一点在该公司第三季度游戏收入环比增长 5.2% 的能力中显而易见。不过，管理层预计这种优势将继续下去。据其称，游戏和数据中心将推动第四季度的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <i>We expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.</i> Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call The key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.</p><p><blockquote><i>我们预计数据中心和游戏将推动环比增长，足以抵消 CMP 的下降。</i>英伟达首席财务官，第三季度收益看涨期权 关键在于数据中心的增长在过去几个季度超过了游戏的增长。因此，如果数据中心在本季度（FQ4 '22）自 FQ2 '21 以来首次达到或超过游戏收入，我不会感到惊讶。这是因为数据中心的增长在过去两个季度有所回升，超过了游戏的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5aa9ae7f41224f726f309ec9ce84a1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，Nvidia 第 3 季度收入趋势数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.</p><p><blockquote>正如二级轴上的季度环比线所示，数据中心自 2021 年第四季度以来加速增长，而游戏增长自 2022 年第一季度以来放缓。21年第二季度的大幅增长与Mellanox的收购有关，因为我概述的增长始于21年第四季度，所以它变得独立于Mellanox，因为比较是Q/Q而不是Y/Y。在 Q3 '21 和 Q1 '22 之间名义连续增长了三个季度之后，情况尤其如此。</blockquote></p><p> Now, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我预计数据中心不会在2022年第四季度以24%或更多的速度环比增长，但我确实预计它的增长速度会超过游戏。根据我们从博通 (AVGO) 和 Marvell (MRVL) 等其他公司最近的收益中看到的情况，数据中心在今年年底看起来非常强劲。因此，我估计数据中心增长14%，游戏增长5%（环比）。虽然这对这两个部门来说都是一个减速，但如果整个季度的表现超出我的预期，我已经为数据中心留出了空间来弥补我在计算 it 和公司王冠游戏之间的 3500 万美元差额。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Digging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.</p><p><blockquote>进一步挖掘，注意哪个部门的环比增长与毛利率一致。更准确地说，数据中心在it和游戏之间的收入份额构成是推动毛利率趋势的因素（以（DC）/（DC+游戏）计算），如下所示。数据中心跃居第一正是投资者所希望的，因为它可以提高毛利率。Omniverse和元宇宙的故事与一个更重要的数据中心部门完美契合。这有助于英伟达在过去几年中一直在推动数据中心的增长，早在 2019 年宣布收购 Mellanox 之前，因为该公司领先于科技行业为元宇宙需求做好准备所需的曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce95b60f491febf2a5cc611f983de1a3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Chart mine，数据来自英伟达季度新闻稿）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> These are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是英伟达在业务方面表现出色并将继续如此的重要原因。其两个主要市场都有实力保证，而且数据中心和 PC 对 GPU 的需求不断增长、强劲。就英伟达的业务而言，它是我最喜欢的业务之一，并且具有通过其不断改进的技术创造新的用例和终端市场需求的最大潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Business Meets Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业与股票的交汇处</b></blockquote></p><p> The points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?</p><p><blockquote>我刚才讨论的要点是为什么该股的估值在过去几个月里飙升——它是在数据中心的持续增长和利润中定价的。然而，什么时候估值过于让市场承受不了呢？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f9cdd482c064248470e0c01e9b9ab90\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.</p><p><blockquote>由于市销率接近相对历史高位，市场表示预计未来三年收入将继续增长 50%。因此，这意味着市场预计未来一年左右的普遍预期将大幅上升。因此，该公司必须略高于下图所示的 2023 年和 2024 年“高”预期，才能证明估值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cabb94994fe458be597ed0a3260763f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Nvidia 来说，这并非不可能，Nvidia 在过去两年中不断提高门槛，但 2024 财年（从 2023 年 2 月开始，一年多后）的收入不太可能达到 49.50B 美元如果没有 ARM (ARMH) 收购正在进行中。在这一点上，它不太可能这样做，因为所有主要国家的反对声音越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> As I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.</p><p><blockquote>正如我已经概述的，Nvidia 的业务非常强大，并且有相当惊人的潜力将技术推向前所未有的更远，并充分利用它。对于市盈率为 30 或以上的股票，我的问题是，它能否带来与目前相同的回报？该公司必须证明其表现甚至可以超过其提高指引的记录，然后每季度超出指引超过 10 亿美元（在指引上调和随后的共识上调之间），才能达到所需的 2024 年高额数字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Finding A Level To Add At</b></p><p><blockquote><b>查找要添加的级别</b></blockquote></p><p> I originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.</p><p><blockquote>我最初是在 11 月 24 日与我的订阅者分享这些想法的，当时该股的交易价格为每股 326 美元。该股目前的交易价格约为 300 美元，下跌了 8%，虽然这降低了风险，但该股的风险仍然高于我愿意添加到头寸中的风险。过去几周，多只股票成为抛售目标，英伟达是受到类似打击的主要目标。</blockquote></p><p> That being said, where am I comfortable to add?</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我还能在哪里补充呢？</blockquote></p><p> A 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.</p><p><blockquote>20 或更低的混合远期市盈率将显着降低风险，同时仍能让 Nvidia 获得值得持续高增长的市盈率。这意味着股价为 210 美元。我预计该股不会达到那个水平，除非市场担心增长不稳定或者我们出现市场调整。如果您是绝对规避风险的成长型股票投资者，那么这就是您的目标。</blockquote></p><p> For those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.</p><p><blockquote>对于我们这些风险承受能力稍强的人来说，我认为 2023 财年的收入预期为 20，目前为 31.45B 美元。这给了我们248美元的目标，可以增加。此外，在共识估计的基础上加上小幅上涨，以解释稳定的节拍和加薪，得出$33.5B的收入估计（仍低于$34.40B的最高估计），相当于$264的股价，下跌12%周三的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>I'll Be Patient</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我会有耐心的</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> This doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着我对该股没有建设性态度——也许它将继续走高，并且未来几个月的预期将会提高，在这种情况下，我很高兴我持有该股。但事实就是如此；我持有目前的头寸，如果市场允许，我希望投机性地增加下跌。我看好该公司，但不喜欢当前估值带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> I look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.</p><p><blockquote>如果有机会，我期待着增加，但如果股票继续走高，我不会感到不安。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475654-nvidia-data-center-will-dominate-wait-these-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148139257","content_text":"Summary\n\nNvidia's business and technology is second to none and the company has proven it can create and lead multiple markets.\nData Center is set to take the reins in terms of revenue and is what investors should want; this division drives gross margins.\nBut the stock is pricing in a long runway of growth and won't achieve it in the timeframe needed to justify the valuation.\nI'm content holding here but will add at $264 and below.\n\nMikhail Konoplev/iStock via Getty Images\nIt's hard to find a company able to dominate one field in several markets. However, you can surely find companies dominating one field in one market. For example, Netflix (NFLX) dominates the streaming field in movies/shows, but not live sports or video games. Finding a company dominating in one area, such as computing power, while doing so in different markets like gaming, data center, and professional rendering is hard to come by. But, NVIDIA (NVDA) fits the bill quite nicely. Its field of specialized computing power has become unmatched, growing revenue at outsized rates by creating new technology and use cases. This is driving accelerating growth which is being rewarded handsomely in the market as its Data Center division prepares to take the company's reins. But even so, I can't justify paying for it at these lofty valuations.\nDon't get me wrong, I'm not only an avid Nvidia bull - with the record to prove it - but have also done very well investing in it. It has become one of my largest stock returns on a percentage basis in my investing career. And, as I will get to shortly, Nvidia's dominance is not set to wane anytime soon. But, even still, building a position above $300 has a lot more risk embedded in it as growth rates will have to extend higher for longer to match the valuation.\nGreat Business Strength On Two Fronts\nNvidia beating estimates and raising guidance is nothing new over the last several quarters. What is interesting, though, is its ability to continue growing the Gaming division during supply constraint times and seasonally weak quarters. This is apparent in the company's ability to grow Gaming revenue by 5.2% quarter-over-quarter in FQ3. Management expects this strength to continue, though. According to it, Gaming and Data Center will drive sequential growth for FQ4.\n\nWe expect sequential growth to be driven by datacenter and gaming more than offsetting a decline in CMP.\n\n\n Nvidia CFO,FQ3 Earnings Call\n\nThe key part is the growth in Data Center is outpacing the growth of Gaming over the last few quarters. As a result, I won't be surprised if Data Center matches or exceeds Gaming revenue for the first time since FQ2 '21 in the current quarter (FQ4 '22). And that's because Data Center growth has picked up over the last two quarters, exceeding Gaming's sequential growth.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's FQ3 '22 Quarterly Revenue Trend)\nAs the quarter-over-quarter lines on the secondary axis show, Data Center has accelerated growth since FQ4 '21, while Gaming growth has slowed since FQ1 '22. The large growth in FQ2 '21 has to do with the Mellanox acquisition, and because the growth I'm outlining starts in FQ4 '21, it becomes independent of Mellanox as the comparisons are Q/Q and not Y/Y. This is especially true after three quarters of nominal sequential growth between FQ3 '21 and FQ1 '22.\nNow, I don't expect Data Center to grow sequentially at 24% or more in FQ4 '22, but I do expect it to grow faster than Gaming. Based on what we see from recent earnings from other companies like Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell (MRVL), data center looks to be very robust heading into the end of the year. As a result, my estimates have 14% Data Center growth and 5% Gaming growth (Q/Q). While this is a deceleration for both divisions, I've left room for Data Center to make up the $35M difference in my calculations between it and Gaming for the crown of the company, should the overall quarter outperform my estimate.\nDigging further, notice which division's Q/Q growth aligns with gross margins. And, more precisely, the makeup of Data Center's revenue share between it and Gaming is what is driving gross margin trends (calculated as (DC)/(DC+Gaming)), as shown below. Data Center moving into the number one position is exactly what investors should want as it drives gross margins higher. The Omniverse and Metaverse story aligns perfectly with a more significant Data Center division. And it helps Nvidia has been pushing for Data Center growth over the last several years, well before the Mellanox acquisition was announced in 2019, because the company is ahead of the curve needed in the tech industry to be ready for metaverse demands.\n(Source: Chart mine, data from Nvidia's Quarterly Press Releases)\nThese are all great reasons why Nvidia is performing well on the business front and will continue to do so. There is assured strength in both of its main markets and is only seeing increasing, strong demand for GPUs in the data center and PC. As far as Nvidia's business goes, it's one of my favorites and has the greatest potential for creating new use cases and end-market demand through its ever-improving technology.\nWhere Business Meets Stock\nThe points I just discussed are why the stock's valuation has skyrocketed over the last several months - it's pricing in this continued growth and margins of the Data Center. However, when is the valuation too much for the market to handle?\nData by YCharts\nWith the price-to-sales ratio near relatively historical highs, the market is saying it expects 50% revenue growth to continue over the next three years. This, therefore, means the market is expecting consensus estimates to rise pretty significantly over the next year or so. As a result, the company would have to hit slightly above the 'High' estimate shown below for 2023 and 2024 to justify the valuation.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThis isn't impossible for Nvidia, which has continued to raise the bar over the last two years, but getting to $49.50B in revenue in FY2024 (which is only a February 2023 beginning, as in a little over one year away) is not likely to happen without the ARM (ARMH) acquisition going through. At this point, it's not very likely it does, as there are mounting objections from all the key countries.\nAs I've already outlined, Nvidia's business is strong and has quite amazing potential to push technology further than it ever has and to capitalize on it richly. The question I have with the stock at or above a 30 P/S ratio is can it drive the same returns from here as it has up to this point? The company will have to prove it can outperform even more than its track record of raising guidance and then beating guidance by more than $1B (between the guidance raise and subsequent beat of consensus) per quarter to get to the lofty 2024 numbers needed.\nFinding A Level To Add At\nI originally shared these thoughts with my subscribers on November 24th, when the stock traded for $326 a share. The stock is now trading around $300, lower by 8%, and while this reduces risk, the stock is still riskier than I would prefer to add to my position. With high multiple stocks being targeted for selling over the last few weeks, Nvidia is a prime target for being hit similarly.\nThat being said, where am I comfortable to add?\nA 20 or below blended forward P/S ratio to start would significantly reduce risk while still granting Nvidia a multiple worthy of consistently high growth. This implies a share price of $210. I don't foresee the stock getting there unless the market fears instability for growth or we have a market correction. If you're an absolute risk-averse growth stock investor, there's your target.\nFor those of us a little more risk-tolerant, I would put a P/S ratio of 20 against FY23's revenue estimates, which currently sits at $31.45B. This gives us a $248 target where one can add. Furthermore, adding a slight upside to the consensus estimates to account for steady beat and raises derives a $33.5B revenue estimate (still below the highest estimate for $34.40B) and equates to a share price of $264, a downside of 12% from Wednesday's levels.\nI'll Be Patient\nThis doesn't mean I'm not constructive on the stock - perhaps it continues to move higher and estimates are raised over the next several months, in which case, I'm glad I'm holding. But that's exactly it; I'm holding my current position and looking to opportunistically add on dips if the market allows it. I'm bullish on the company but don't prefer the risk dished out by the current valuation.\nI look forward to adding if the opportunity arises, but won't be upset if the stock continues higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5168,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/691801870"}
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